COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (2,367 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2,337 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-16,445 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-7,588 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,362 contracts), the Nikkei 225 Yen (-679 contracts) and with the DowJones-Mini (-201 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

* Note: The Nikkei 225 (USD) has not been updated by the CFTC recently – likely due to lack of open interest. The Nikkei 225 levels on the charts this week reflect the last updated data. We will look to swap in the Nikkei 225 Yen contracts in future updates which has a higher open interest.

Stock Markets Price Performance:

Last 5 days:
– Russell 2000 and Emerging Markets: gains over 2%
– NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones, and EAFE: gains over 1%
– VIX: down by over 3%

Last 30 days:
– All markets have gained except VIX
– VIX: down over 30%

Last 90 days:
– Emerging markets, EAFE, and Nikkei 225 are leading the markets higher
– VIX: up approximately 16% while US Markets around breakeven

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by MSCI EAFE-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (92 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The VIX (88 percent) and DowJones-Mini (78 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 Yen (37 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (87.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (85.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (66.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (69.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (78.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (78.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (61.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (65.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (73.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (79.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (92.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (89.2 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (18 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (16 percent) and the Nikkei 225 Yen (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-4 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (2.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (9.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (1.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (1.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (16.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (17.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-35.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-22.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-3.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-3.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	42.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	41.0	8.9
– Net Position:	-3,398	3,419	-21
– Gross Longs:	81,723	120,140	25,406
– Gross Shorts:	85,121	116,721	25,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.8	13.9	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	0.3	-14.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -69,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	73.8	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	73.4	8.7
– Net Position:	-69,415	9,046	60,369
– Gross Longs:	253,198	1,567,386	245,466
– Gross Shorts:	322,613	1,558,340	185,097
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	36.2	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-4.1	8.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,977 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	57.4	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	69.0	14.9
– Net Position:	10,977	-9,577	-1,400
– Gross Longs:	17,459	47,552	10,908
– Gross Shorts:	6,482	57,129	12,308
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.2	24.3	45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-14.2	-1.8

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	54.3	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	57.7	15.3
– Net Position:	14,670	-9,454	-5,216
– Gross Longs:	82,789	150,507	37,275
– Gross Shorts:	68,119	159,961	42,491
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	43.4	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.7	29.8	-9.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	71.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	67.8	6.5
– Net Position:	-12,045	16,193	-4,148
– Gross Longs:	79,926	318,071	24,826
– Gross Shorts:	91,971	301,878	28,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	33.9	12.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	12.9	-44.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	88.3	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	90.1	1.0
– Net Position:	2,201	-8,388	6,187
– Gross Longs:	44,626	427,946	11,119
– Gross Shorts:	42,425	436,334	4,932
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.4	16.2	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-18.3	9.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

26 May

Speculator Bets led lower by Canadian Dollar & Brazilian Real, USD Index Bets edge up

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower overall by Canadian Dollar & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.

The currency with a gain this week was the US Dollar Index that showed a small rise of 69 contracts on the week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-21,705 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-17,226 contracts), the EuroFX (-10,321 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-9,731 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-4,938 contracts), British Pound (-3,223 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-3,174 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,125 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,040 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (-698 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculator Position Roundup:

The latest data (through Tuesday May 20th) showed that all currency speculator positions pulled back, except for the US Dollar Index. However, the US Dollar Index only had a small rise and actually remains in a very small net speculator bearish position of -546 contracts as of Tuesday.

Overall, most currencies’ speculator positions remain in a bullish state against the US Dollar, including the Japanese Yen, which is not too far off its all-time record high that has was reached recently on April 29th at +179,212 contracts. The Euro is currently at approximately +75,000 contracts and has been in an overall bullish position for the past 11 weeks. The British Pound has also been in a bullish position for 13 straight weeks and is around +24,000 contracts at the moment.

The Mexican Peso has been mostly bullish since 2023 and is currently at approximately +62,000 contracts, which is above its average for 2025 (of around +34,000 weekly contracts). In comparison, the Mexican Peso contracts averaged +68,482 weekly contracts over the whole of 2024 which included a 15-week streak of over +100,000 contracts from March of 2024 to June 2024.

The Brazilian Real recently hit an all-time high and remains bullish for a 16th consecutive week at over +26,000 contracts.

The only speculator positions with negative positions right now against the US Dollar are the Swiss Franc, the New Zealand Dollar, the Australian Dollar, the Canadian Dollar and Bitcoin.

Euro Speculator Bets

The Euro speculator bets dipped this week by over 10,000 contracts for its largest pullback since early April. However, this speculator contract has been on the rise strongly since February, with gains in 10 out of the last 14 weeks. The 14-week rise has been over a total +138,000 contracts to bring the Euro position from a -64,425 contract position on February 11th to this week’s total of +74,453 contracts.

Bitcoin Speculator Contracts

The Bitcoin speculator positions have been in overall bearish territory for the last five weeks. Bitcoin contracts seem to be behaving similarly to some of the stock market contracts, which exhibit the behavior of hedging among the speculators. As the Bitcoin price has been going up, the contracts speculators have been going more bearish and vice versa. The Bitcoin price has been rising rapidly lately and reaching all-time record high prices despite the bearish speculator bets.

Exchange Rate Market

The US Dollar Index fell sharply on the week and closed under the significant 100 level, ending the week around the 99.30 level.

The Euro, the Pound, the Yen, the Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar, and the New Zealand Dollar, despite the fall in speculator contracts, all had positive weeks against the US Dollar in the exchange rate markets.

Last week, the Mexican Peso was up for the third time in the last four weeks, while the Brazilian Real also squeaked out a positive week.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (97 percent) and the Brazilian Real (66 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (61 percent), EuroFX (57 percent) and the Swiss Franc (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (6 percent) and the Bitcoin (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (34 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (37 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.4 percent)
EuroFX (57.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (61.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (45.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (96.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (98.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (52.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (54.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (41.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (51.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (34.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (41.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (38.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (60.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (62.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (79.9 percent)
Bitcoin (8.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.3 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (18 percent) and the Swiss Franc (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (12 percent), the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) and the EuroFX (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Bitcoin (-72 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-15 percent), US Dollar Index (-7 percent) and the Australian Dollar (3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-7.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-15.9 percent)
EuroFX (5.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (12.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (3.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (5.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (13.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (39.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (21.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (3.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (18.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (17.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (12.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (7.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (5.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-71.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-28.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 69 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -615 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.2	27.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.1	21.5	11.8
– Net Position:	-546	1,870	-1,324
– Gross Longs:	17,583	8,369	2,252
– Gross Shorts:	18,129	6,499	3,576
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.6	97.8	12.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	8.8	-13.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 74,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	55.8	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	72.5	5.5
– Net Position:	74,453	-126,830	52,377
– Gross Longs:	206,042	423,456	94,072
– Gross Shorts:	131,589	550,286	41,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	38.0	89.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-12.4	48.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 23,993 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,223 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.1	29.5	17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	46.8	12.0
– Net Position:	23,993	-33,817	9,824
– Gross Longs:	88,144	57,675	33,168
– Gross Shorts:	64,151	91,492	23,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	49.9	82.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-7.5	23.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 167,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.0	27.8	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	77.2	6.8
– Net Position:	167,330	-181,021	13,691
– Gross Longs:	194,510	102,102	38,497
– Gross Shorts:	27,180	283,123	24,806
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.7	5.3	76.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-4.9	-2.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -23,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	70.9	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.9	36.3	20.6
– Net Position:	-23,767	25,298	-1,531
– Gross Longs:	7,632	51,871	13,558
– Gross Shorts:	31,399	26,573	15,089
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	40.8	72.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-20.4	25.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -103,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	81.3	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.4	38.9	11.7
– Net Position:	-103,861	112,982	-9,121
– Gross Longs:	22,629	216,736	22,213
– Gross Shorts:	126,490	103,754	31,334
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	61.5	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-7.0	3.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -59,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	68.2	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	34.7	11.9
– Net Position:	-59,077	59,536	-459
– Gross Longs:	20,997	121,279	20,781
– Gross Shorts:	80,074	61,743	21,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	65.4	47.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-6.4	17.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -23,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,040 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	76.3	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.1	36.6	6.9
– Net Position:	-23,652	24,260	-608
– Gross Longs:	9,981	46,591	3,626
– Gross Shorts:	33,633	22,331	4,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	61.4	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-19.1	19.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 62,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.2	29.3	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	76.0	3.0
– Net Position:	62,532	-64,062	1,530
– Gross Longs:	89,323	40,078	5,579
– Gross Shorts:	26,791	104,140	4,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	41.3	31.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-14.3	24.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 26,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -17,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.3	31.4	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	70.9	1.3
– Net Position:	26,289	-36,167	9,878
– Gross Longs:	51,552	28,734	11,113
– Gross Shorts:	25,263	64,901	1,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	9.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.9	27.6	76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	8.3	48.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.4	6.6	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.5	1.3	3.8
– Net Position:	-1,952	1,692	260
– Gross Longs:	24,142	2,121	1,466
– Gross Shorts:	26,094	429	1,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	100.0	50.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-71.7	61.1	36.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

26 May

Speculator Extremes: JPY, Ultra 10-Year lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 20th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the JPY speculator level is currently at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise 6 points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 167,330 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,938 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Nikkei 225 speculator level leveled this week at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a boost 35 points this week. The speculator position registered 1,904 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 2,025 contracts in speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings as the VIX speculator level resides at a 94 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a boost by 16 points this week. The overall speculator position was 4,424 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,675 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a gain of 13 points this week. The overall speculator position was 774 net contracts this week with a drop of -1,935 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings with the Live Cattle speculator level at a 81 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -4 points this week.

The speculator position was 103,416 net contracts this week with a dip by -7,231 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at a zero percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -55 points this week. The overall speculator position was -328,444 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -8,837 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year speculator level is at just 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12 points this week. The speculator position was -2,275,941 net contracts this week with a drop by -95,898 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5 points this week. The overall speculator position was -58,173 net contracts this week with a reduction by -7,245 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the USD Index speculator level now at 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7 points this week. The speculator position was -546 net contracts this week with a small advance of 69 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

Finally, the Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -72 points this week. The speculator position was -1,952 net contracts this week with a decrease by -1,125 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

25 May

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Platinum & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (8,080 contracts) with Gold (2,772 contracts), Silver (2,288 contracts) and Palladium (2,109 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market leading the declines in speculator bets for the week was Steel (-618 contracts) and with Copper (-484 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

On the downside, Gold (42 percent) and Palladium (42 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (42.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (41.4 percent)
Silver (79.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (76.5 percent)
Copper (52.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (53.3 percent)
Platinum (57.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.0 percent)
Palladium (41.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (25.9 percent)
Steel (73.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.1 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (43 percent) and Palladium (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-11 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-14.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (-29.3 percent)
Silver (4.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-12.0 percent)
Copper (-3.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-7.9 percent)
Platinum (43.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-13.4 percent)
Palladium (17.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.5 percent)
Steel (-10.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-9.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 163,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 161,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.1	20.1	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	64.3	4.6
– Net Position:	163,981	-197,648	33,667
– Gross Longs:	238,062	90,256	54,053
– Gross Shorts:	74,081	287,904	20,386
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	51.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	12.4	8.6

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 50,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,754 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	23.9	19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	71.1	7.1
– Net Position:	50,042	-66,779	16,737
– Gross Longs:	70,891	33,798	26,826
– Gross Shorts:	20,849	100,577	10,089
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	20.5	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-3.0	-3.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,038 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	31.5	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	42.9	5.7
– Net Position:	21,038	-23,423	2,385
– Gross Longs:	69,015	64,580	14,164
– Gross Shorts:	47,977	88,003	11,779
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.8	50.3	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	-1.7	31.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 17,396 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,080 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.3	20.8	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	42.1	9.0
– Net Position:	17,396	-17,517	121
– Gross Longs:	50,293	17,049	7,490
– Gross Shorts:	32,897	34,566	7,369
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	53.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.0	-21.3	-100.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -8,352 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,109 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	46.5	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.0	8.6	8.2
– Net Position:	-8,352	7,622	730
– Gross Longs:	5,712	9,344	2,386
– Gross Shorts:	14,064	1,722	1,656
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	5.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	55.4	64.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-17.0	-6.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	67.1	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	66.1	0.8
– Net Position:	-447	370	77
– Gross Longs:	10,209	24,861	362
– Gross Shorts:	10,656	24,491	285
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.1	27.9	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	10.1	8.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

25 May

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (38,920 contracts) with the SOFR 1-Month (20,104 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (15,087 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (5,596 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-232,067 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-95,898 contracts), the Fed Funds (-51,861 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-45,099 contracts) and with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-8,837 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (80 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (72 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (1 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (10 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (30.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (39.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (15.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (5.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (28.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (24.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (58.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (56.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (80.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (74.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (72.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (67.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (9.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (21.8 percent)

10-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (22 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-55 percent), the US Treasury Bonds (-19 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-18 percent) lead the downside trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-9.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (13.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (-4.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-7.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (21.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-54.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-66.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-18.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-17.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-2.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (22.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (8.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-15.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (5.5 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -131,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -51,861 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,469 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	67.4	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	62.4	1.4
– Net Position:	-131,330	107,990	23,340
– Gross Longs:	371,441	1,439,977	53,265
– Gross Shorts:	502,771	1,331,987	29,925
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.4	61.7	92.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	6.2	21.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -976,935 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -232,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -744,868 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	59.9	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	51.2	0.4
– Net Position:	-976,935	966,625	10,310
– Gross Longs:	1,121,206	6,592,088	50,941
– Gross Shorts:	2,098,141	5,625,463	40,631
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.8	89.6	89.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	15.5	2.7

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 15,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 20,104 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,072 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	64.6	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	65.4	0.4
– Net Position:	15,032	-10,453	-4,579
– Gross Longs:	227,059	838,502	566
– Gross Shorts:	212,027	848,955	5,145
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.2	29.0	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.3	-21.6	-5.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,267,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -45,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,222,232 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	76.2	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.8	49.4	2.9
– Net Position:	-1,267,331	1,140,386	126,945
– Gross Longs:	592,294	3,235,687	250,064
– Gross Shorts:	1,859,625	2,095,301	123,119
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.4	83.7	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	5.9	-0.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,275,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -95,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,180,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	80.7	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.5	51.7	3.6
– Net Position:	-2,275,941	2,097,939	178,002
– Gross Longs:	579,514	5,832,382	439,625
– Gross Shorts:	2,855,455	3,734,443	261,623
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	100.0	83.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	16.2	-8.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -851,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 38,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -890,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	76.1	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	61.4	6.8
– Net Position:	-851,431	766,540	84,891
– Gross Longs:	503,706	3,980,135	438,754
– Gross Shorts:	1,355,137	3,213,595	353,863
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.2	72.6	77.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.9	-18.3	-22.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -328,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,837 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319,607 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	76.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	60.5	10.9
– Net Position:	-328,444	368,159	-39,715
– Gross Longs:	276,250	1,805,143	218,835
– Gross Shorts:	604,694	1,436,984	258,550
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-54.7	76.0	-21.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -72,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,629 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	73.9	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	75.0	7.8
– Net Position:	-72,033	-19,934	91,967
– Gross Longs:	184,197	1,369,023	235,851
– Gross Shorts:	256,230	1,388,957	143,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.3	33.2	81.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	17.6	-4.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -246,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -261,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	79.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	68.0	8.8
– Net Position:	-246,135	234,924	11,211
– Gross Longs:	117,127	1,577,209	184,656
– Gross Shorts:	363,262	1,342,285	173,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.3	29.8	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	29.8	-39.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

25 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (18,474 contracts) with Lean Hogs (7,964 contracts) and Cocoa (3,048 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-29,658 contracts), Soybeans (-17,265 contracts), Cotton (-11,613 contracts), Soybean Oil (-7,280 contracts), Soybean Meal (-7,245 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,231 contracts), Coffee (-2,770 contracts) and with Sugar (-499 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (81 percent) and Soybean Oil (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (70 percent), Coffee (68 percent) and Soybeans (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (4 percent) and Wheat (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Cotton (20 percent) and the Sugar (20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (34.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (38.7 percent)
Sugar (19.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (19.8 percent)
Coffee (67.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (70.5 percent)
Soybeans (62.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (67.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (78.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (82.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (6.5 percent)
Live Cattle (80.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (87.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (70.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (64.0 percent)
Cotton (20.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (27.1 percent)
Cocoa (34.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (31.2 percent)
Wheat (13.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Lean Hogs & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (28 percent) and Soybeans (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (10 percent), Cocoa (6 percent) and Cotton (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Corn (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-5 percent), Wheat (-5 percent) and Sugar (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-25.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-20.2 percent)
Sugar (-5.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-7.7 percent)
Coffee (-0.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-7.7 percent)
Soybeans (16.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (17.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (10.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (34.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-5.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-12.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (28.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.6 percent)
Cotton (3.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (14.9 percent)
Cocoa (6.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (2.3 percent)
Wheat (-5.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,552 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -29,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	46.0	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	43.6	10.1
– Net Position:	-11,552	39,014	-27,462
– Gross Longs:	342,329	753,623	137,875
– Gross Shorts:	353,881	714,609	165,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.6	63.1	74.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.1	25.0	22.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -499 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,930 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	52.5	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	55.2	8.6
– Net Position:	28,431	-21,672	-6,759
– Gross Longs:	202,598	422,726	62,245
– Gross Shorts:	174,167	444,398	69,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.7	84.7	11.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	8.8	-22.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,770 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,070 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.0	38.3	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	68.7	3.8
– Net Position:	43,300	-45,702	2,402
– Gross Longs:	54,094	57,447	8,093
– Gross Shorts:	10,794	103,149	5,691
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.8	33.4	58.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.6	14.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	49.3	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	53.4	7.4
– Net Position:	47,913	-34,716	-13,197
– Gross Longs:	180,039	416,365	49,607
– Gross Shorts:	132,126	451,081	62,804
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.8	34.7	78.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	-19.8	22.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,919 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,199 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	44.2	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	56.7	4.2
– Net Position:	66,919	-74,232	7,313
– Gross Longs:	151,778	262,822	32,354
– Gross Shorts:	84,859	337,054	25,041
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.8	23.8	52.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-9.7	3.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -58,173 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,928 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	48.3	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	42.3	5.3
– Net Position:	-58,173	35,606	22,567
– Gross Longs:	121,724	288,319	54,354
– Gross Shorts:	179,897	252,713	31,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.5	91.8	67.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	5.2	-3.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 103,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.7	27.6	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	48.2	13.6
– Net Position:	103,416	-80,410	-23,006
– Gross Longs:	194,051	107,939	30,314
– Gross Shorts:	90,635	188,349	53,320
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.6	24.3	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	8.2	-8.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 54,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,757 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.1	31.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	48.1	8.6
– Net Position:	54,721	-50,685	-4,036
– Gross Longs:	120,427	97,715	22,586
– Gross Shorts:	65,706	148,400	26,622
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.1	27.5	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.3	-29.8	-10.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -29,156 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	49.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	35.7	5.7
– Net Position:	-29,156	31,346	-2,190
– Gross Longs:	62,669	115,625	11,274
– Gross Shorts:	91,825	84,279	13,464
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.1	82.6	6.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	-3.3	-1.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,916 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,868 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	34.5	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	62.1	5.5
– Net Position:	23,916	-28,875	4,959
– Gross Longs:	36,248	35,996	10,742
– Gross Shorts:	12,332	64,871	5,783
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	64.4	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-7.2	9.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -99,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 18,474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118,100 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	37.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.6	17.1	7.2
– Net Position:	-99,626	99,080	546
– Gross Longs:	127,701	180,857	35,140
– Gross Shorts:	227,327	81,777	34,594
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.0	89.9	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	8.4	-19.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

25 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Russell-2000

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Russell-2000

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (25,625 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (22,609 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (1,033 contracts)also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were with the Nasdaq-Mini (-5,017 contracts), the VIX (-1,675 contracts) and with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,935 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nikkei 225 & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) and the VIX (94 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (90 percent) and Russell-Mini (78 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

The Nasdaq-Mini (62 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is above the 50 percent mid-point of the past 3 years.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (94.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (95.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (61.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (57.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (73.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (71.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (61.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (69.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (78.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (62.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (90.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (93.1 percent)

Nikkei 225 & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (35 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (16 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-12 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (15.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (14.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-12.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-18.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (11.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (15.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-15.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (6.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (4.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-7.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (12.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (17.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	43.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	45.4	7.6
– Net Position:	4,424	-5,585	1,161
– Gross Longs:	80,402	130,533	23,915
– Gross Shorts:	75,978	136,118	22,754
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.4	6.5	73.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-15.4	1.7

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -96,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 25,625 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -122,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	74.3	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	71.9	9.2
– Net Position:	-96,569	51,097	45,472
– Gross Longs:	246,588	1,571,120	239,544
– Gross Shorts:	343,157	1,520,023	194,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	42.5	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.4	9.1	2.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,147 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	62.4	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	67.1	16.8
– Net Position:	8,147	-3,719	-4,428
– Gross Longs:	14,117	49,297	8,830
– Gross Shorts:	5,970	53,016	13,258
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.6	32.8	27.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-6.0	-16.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	55.7	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	57.0	15.9
– Net Position:	14,530	-3,723	-10,807
– Gross Longs:	82,637	155,475	33,720
– Gross Shorts:	68,107	159,198	44,527
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.7	49.5	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	28.7	-32.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,747 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 22,609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	72.5	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	70.4	6.2
– Net Position:	-5,747	9,349	-3,602
– Gross Longs:	72,733	315,935	23,370
– Gross Shorts:	78,480	306,586	26,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	29.7	14.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	3.2	-34.8

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	60.5	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.5	75.4	22.1
– Net Position:	1,904	-1,590	-314
– Gross Longs:	2,169	6,480	2,056
– Gross Shorts:	265	8,070	2,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	15.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.0	-26.7	-5.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	88.1	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	89.5	1.2
– Net Position:	774	-6,447	5,673
– Gross Longs:	43,477	411,441	11,284
– Gross Shorts:	42,703	417,888	5,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.4	18.5	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-7.5	-14.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

18 May

Euro Speculator Bets hit 2024 High as Brazilian Real Bets Rebound, CAD Bets Decline

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (18,554 contracts) with the EuroFX (9,055 contracts), Bitcoin (954 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (523 contracts), the Swiss Franc (505 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (493 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-11,511 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-4,591 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-2,849 contracts), the British Pound (-2,019 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (-974 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Futures Data Highlights: Euro hits 2024 high

This week’s notable changes in the Currency Speculator positions included the Euro rising to a new yearly high, the Brazilian Real rebounding from last week’s sharp decline, and the Canadian Dollar posting the largest decrease this week in the speculator bets.

Euro Speculator Position:
– The Euro speculator bet rose by over +9,000 contracts this week.
– The Euro speculator position has risen in 4 out of the past 6 weeks and in 10 out of the last 13 weeks.
– Over the last 13 weeks, approximately +150,000 contracts have been added to the Euro speculator position.
– The overall standing has increased from approximately -64,000 contracts in February to a +84,774 contracts this week.
– This brings the Euro contract position to its highest level since September 2024, a span of 36 weeks.

Brazilian Real Speculator Position:
– The Brazilian Real jumped this week with a gain of over +18,000 speculator positions, rebounding from last week’s -43,377 contract decline.
– The Brazilian Real contract positions have risen in 5 out of the past 6 weeks and maintains a bullish net position of over +43,000 contracts this week.

Other Major Currencies:
– Speculator positions for the Australian Dollar, the Swiss Franc, the U.S. Dollar Index, the New Zealand Dollar, and Bitcoin all saw changes of less than 1,000 contracts on the week.
– The Japanese Yen saw an approximate -4,500 contract fall from its overall net position but maintains a highly bullish position slightly off the all-time highs of 2 weeks ago.
– The Canadian Dollar saw the most bearish change of the week with a decline of over 11,000 contracts, likely weighed down by falling oil prices and speculation that the Canadian government could reduce interest rates.

U.S. Dollar Index:
– The U.S. Dollar Index currently has a speculator’s net standing of -615 contracts, which amounts to an overall neutral position after a small gain this week.
– The U.S. Dollar Index price has risen slightly for the past 4 weeks in a row and ended the week just below the 101.00 exchange level.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (98 percent) and the Brazilian Real (80 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (62 percent), the EuroFX (61 percent) and the Swiss Franc (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Bitcoin (33 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (38 percent) and the Australian Dollar (41 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (61.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (57.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (98.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (99.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (54.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (53.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (51.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (56.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (41.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (42.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (38.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (37.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (62.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (63.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (79.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.8 percent)
Bitcoin (33.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.4 percent)

Swiss Franc & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (40 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (21 percent), the Australian Dollar (19 percent) and the Japanese Yen (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-15.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-17.8 percent)
EuroFX (12.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-3.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-6.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (13.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (14.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (39.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (28.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (21.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (18.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (25.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (7.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (5.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-12.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-28.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-64.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	27.4	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.7	23.6	11.8
– Net Position:	-615	1,067	-452
– Gross Longs:	15,539	7,680	2,849
– Gross Shorts:	16,154	6,613	3,301
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	96.2	24.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	14.7	2.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	54.2	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	72.0	6.0
– Net Position:	84,774	-134,282	49,508
– Gross Longs:	209,549	406,660	94,529
– Gross Shorts:	124,775	540,942	45,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.0	35.5	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-17.5	41.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 27,216 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.0	28.7	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	45.1	14.3
– Net Position:	27,216	-32,059	4,843
– Gross Longs:	89,540	55,836	32,765
– Gross Shorts:	62,324	87,895	27,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	48.6	72.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	2.7	1.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 172,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 176,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	28.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	79.6	7.6
– Net Position:	172,268	-184,891	12,623
– Gross Longs:	194,226	101,140	40,015
– Gross Shorts:	21,958	286,031	27,392
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.1	4.3	74.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-11.7	-9.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -23,069 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	69.8	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	38.3	19.8
– Net Position:	-23,069	22,999	70
– Gross Longs:	7,443	51,006	14,560
– Gross Shorts:	30,512	28,007	14,490
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	37.0	79.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.9	-43.6	30.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -82,156 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	81.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	46.0	11.8
– Net Position:	-82,156	91,895	-9,739
– Gross Longs:	23,250	212,802	21,276
– Gross Shorts:	105,406	120,907	31,015
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	52.6	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.4	-21.8	10.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	66.5	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	38.3	12.6
– Net Position:	-49,346	50,883	-1,537
– Gross Longs:	25,507	119,964	21,268
– Gross Shorts:	74,853	69,081	22,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.3	60.3	45.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-16.8	4.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 523 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	74.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	38.2	6.3
– Net Position:	-22,612	22,116	496
– Gross Longs:	10,207	45,320	4,303
– Gross Shorts:	32,819	23,204	3,807
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	59.0	59.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-27.8	29.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 65,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,555 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.9	26.7	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	78.2	2.4
– Net Position:	65,706	-69,541	3,835
– Gross Longs:	90,191	35,941	7,084
– Gross Shorts:	24,485	105,482	3,249
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.3	38.5	44.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-10.0	26.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.9	30.7	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	79.1	1.2
– Net Position:	43,515	-47,068	3,553
– Gross Longs:	62,123	29,847	4,729
– Gross Shorts:	18,608	76,915	1,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.9	18.8	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-4.8	-2.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,781 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.7	6.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.5	1.5	6.9
– Net Position:	-827	1,548	-721
– Gross Longs:	23,453	1,986	1,276
– Gross Shorts:	24,280	438	1,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	4.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.3	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.8	45.3	-27.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

18 May

Speculator Extremes: Brent, Wheat lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 13th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score (or maximum) of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise of 14 points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 5,637 net contracts this week with a gain of 3,142 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The JPY speculator level is now at a 98 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain by 14 points this week. The speculator position registered 172,268 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -4,591 contracts in speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The VIX speculator level resides at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 14 this week. The overall speculator position was 6,099 net contracts this week with a drop of -4,844 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Nikkei 225 speculator level is at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a boost by 35 points this week. The overall speculator position was 1,904 net contracts this week with a rise by 2,025 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The BRL speculator level sits at a 80 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5 this week.

The speculator position was 43,515 net contracts this week with a jump by 18,554 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11 points this week. The overall speculator position was -118,100 net contracts this week with a decrease by -10,563 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7 points this week. The speculator position was -2,180,043 net contracts this week with a rise of 116,453 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Heating Oil speculator level resides at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -25 points this week. The overall speculator position was -29,396 net contracts this week with an increase of 2,214 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The USD Index speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16 points this week. The speculator position was -615 net contracts this week with an advance by 493 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Finally, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 18 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 0 this week. The speculator position was -1,222,232 net contracts this week with a dip by -1,439 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Opinions

18 May

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Silver & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Silver & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-1,288 contracts), Silver (-1,498 contracts), Steel (-635 contracts), Palladium (-470 contracts), Platinum (-194 contracts) and with Copper (-181 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (26 percent) and Platinum (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (41.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (41.9 percent)
Silver (76.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (78.4 percent)
Copper (53.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (53.5 percent)
Platinum (38.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.4 percent)
Palladium (25.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (29.5 percent)
Steel (77.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (80.2 percent)

Copper & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all of the metals markets currently have negative trend scores. Copper (-8 percent) and Steel (-9 percent) have the least negative scores while Gold (-29 percent) and Palladium (-20 percent) have the most negative scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-29.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (-33.2 percent)
Silver (-12.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.8 percent)
Copper (-7.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.5 percent)
Platinum (-13.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-9.6 percent)
Palladium (-19.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-12.6 percent)
Steel (-8.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (-13.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 161,209 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 162,497 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	20.1	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	63.4	4.9
– Net Position:	161,209	-191,207	29,998
– Gross Longs:	238,191	88,412	51,570
– Gross Shorts:	76,982	279,619	21,572
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	53.5	92.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.3	26.6	14.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,754 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,252 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.1	24.0	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	71.9	6.6
– Net Position:	47,754	-66,180	18,426
– Gross Longs:	67,944	33,164	27,520
– Gross Shorts:	20,190	99,344	9,094
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.5	21.2	59.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	11.3	-3.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.7	31.0	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	43.5	5.9
– Net Position:	21,522	-24,343	2,821
– Gross Longs:	71,926	60,805	14,368
– Gross Shorts:	50,404	85,148	11,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.3	49.5	34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	5.8	10.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	24.5	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	42.2	5.8
– Net Position:	9,316	-13,469	4,153
– Gross Longs:	42,968	18,603	8,566
– Gross Shorts:	33,652	32,072	4,413
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.0	62.7	27.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	13.4	-4.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,991 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	50.9	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.6	5.0	7.3
– Net Position:	-10,461	9,659	802
– Gross Longs:	5,661	10,715	2,345
– Gross Shorts:	16,122	1,056	1,543
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	10.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.9	71.0	67.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.5	20.0	-1.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	65.0	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	65.4	0.7
– Net Position:	171	-157	-14
– Gross Longs:	10,440	22,868	218
– Gross Shorts:	10,269	23,025	232
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	24.2	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	9.0	-8.1

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