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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Brent Oil & Heating Oil

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil & Heating Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil (3,225 contracts) with Heating Oil (3,214 contracts) and the Bloomberg Index (1,701 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-13,305 contracts), WTI Crude (-13,066 contracts) and Gasoline (-239 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Brent Oil, WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline lead Energy Market Price Performances

In the Energy markets this week, all of the six markets that we cover were higher on the week. Leading the gains was Brent Oil, which jumped by 12.07% and was followed by WTI Crude Oil, which advanced by a similar 11.65%. Next up, Gasoline advanced by 11.08% on the week.

Heating Oil was higher by 8.45%, while the Bloomberg Commodity Index was above a 4% gain with a 4.35% rise. Rounding out the gainers with a small rise was Natural Gas, which edged up by 0.03%.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Bloomberg Index

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Heating Oil (54.6 percent) and Bloomberg Index (53.1 percent) lead the energy markets this week. Gasoline (51.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, WTI Crude (7.4 percent) and Natural Gas (17.9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (7.4 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (11.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (45.4 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (40.4 percent)
Natural Gas (17.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (26.4 percent)
Gasoline (51.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (51.4 percent)
Heating Oil (54.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (50.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (53.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (51.6 percent)

Bloomberg Index tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bloomberg Index (39.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. Heating Oil (5.8 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude (-30.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Brent Oil (-4.8 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-30.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-27.5 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-4.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (12.9 percent)
Natural Gas (4.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (24.3 percent)
Gasoline (2.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (4.0 percent)
Heating Oil (5.8 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (3.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (39.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (38.0 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 62,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -13,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,749 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	49.2	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	53.8	2.7
– Net Position:	62,683	-85,088	22,405
– Gross Longs:	302,429	923,364	72,706
– Gross Shorts:	239,746	1,008,452	50,301
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.4	90.8	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.0	31.5	-19.4

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -21,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 3,225 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,649 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	35.1	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	27.7	2.4
– Net Position:	-21,424	18,505	2,919
– Gross Longs:	52,462	86,863	8,741
– Gross Shorts:	73,886	68,358	5,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	49.7	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	9.5	-29.5

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -178,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -13,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,307 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	32.2	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	22.3	2.6
– Net Position:	-178,612	165,528	13,084
– Gross Longs:	287,255	536,312	56,425
– Gross Shorts:	465,867	370,784	43,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.9	84.3	36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-5.4	2.2

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 57,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -239 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,224 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	43.4	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	64.6	4.4
– Net Position:	57,985	-68,653	10,668
– Gross Longs:	97,460	140,933	25,057
– Gross Shorts:	39,475	209,586	14,389
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.2	43.2	66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-1.8	-2.6

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 8,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 3,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,262 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	43.5	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	55.8	10.2
– Net Position:	8,476	-32,395	23,919
– Gross Longs:	49,219	114,396	50,855
– Gross Shorts:	40,743	146,791	26,936
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.6	35.7	83.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-1.2	-8.7

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -30,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 1,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,896 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.2	48.8	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.5	32.7	0.0
– Net Position:	-30,195	29,772	423
– Gross Longs:	92,871	90,259	436
– Gross Shorts:	123,066	60,487	13
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	33.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	46.9	79.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.5	-39.4	-1.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

18 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Wheat, Corn & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat, Corn & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (33,391 contracts) with Corn (30,483 contracts), Soybean Meal (24,649 contracts), Soybeans (12,596 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,577 contracts), Cotton (7,019 contracts), Cocoa (2,145 contracts) and Coffee (2,204 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-11,963 contracts) with Sugar (-2,872 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-807 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Wheat leads Soft Commodities Price Performances this week

The top market this week in the Soft Commodities price performances was Wheat, which rose by a strong 7.17% over the past five days. Soybean Oil comes in next with a 2.84% rise on the week, while Lean Hogs was up by 2.68%.

Soybeans had a modest 0.52% gain on the week, and Corn rounded out the gainers with a 0.16% increase.

On the downside, Sugar dipped by -0.27%, followed by Soybean Meal, which fell by a similar -0.30%. Cotton dropped by more than -2.5% with a -2.88% decline, while Live Cattle dropped by -4.27%, and Coffee fell by -4.93% over the past five days.

The biggest decliner on the week was Cocoa, which saw a reduction by -6.08%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cotton & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (96 percent) and Wheat (86 percent) currently lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (74 percent), Soybeans (71 percent) and Soybean Meal (71 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Cocoa (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (38 percent) and the Live Cattle (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (54.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (50.0 percent)
Sugar (38.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (39.0 percent)
Coffee (51.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (48.9 percent)
Soybeans (71.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (68.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (73.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (68.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (70.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (60.5 percent)
Live Cattle (46.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (58.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.5 percent)
Cotton (95.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (91.7 percent)
Cocoa (11.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.8 percent)
Wheat (85.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (57.5 percent)

Wheat & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (21 percent) and Coffee (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (9 percent), Cocoa (6 percent) and Cotton (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-17 percent), Soybean Oil (-17 percent) and Live Cattle (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-9.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-27.4 percent)
Sugar (9.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.1 percent)
Coffee (14.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (9.0 percent)
Soybeans (-13.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-20.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-16.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-18.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-28.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-37.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-5.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-24.2 percent)
Cotton (6.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.4 percent)
Cocoa (6.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (3.1 percent)
Wheat (20.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-33.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 131,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 30,483 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,980 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	41.2	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	46.8	10.4
– Net Position:	131,463	-94,976	-36,487
– Gross Longs:	482,223	703,349	140,668
– Gross Shorts:	350,760	798,325	177,155
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	42.8	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	2.5	44.2

SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,273 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	47.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	41.9	7.1
– Net Position:	-62,145	58,263	3,882
– Gross Longs:	270,018	477,149	74,460
– Gross Shorts:	332,163	418,886	70,578
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	63.2	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-8.6	4.3

COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,623 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	38.2	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	55.9	3.3
– Net Position:	27,827	-29,450	1,623
– Gross Longs:	53,913	63,817	7,156
– Gross Shorts:	26,086	93,267	5,533
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	49.7	43.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-15.5	26.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 125,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 12,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,807 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	49.8	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	59.8	7.0
– Net Position:	125,403	-101,014	-24,389
– Gross Longs:	220,823	500,119	46,389
– Gross Shorts:	95,420	601,133	70,778
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	29.5	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	14.6	-4.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 107,243 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 12,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,666 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	47.4	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	66.0	4.0
– Net Position:	107,243	-118,359	11,116
– Gross Longs:	159,949	302,751	36,891
– Gross Shorts:	52,706	421,110	25,775
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	25.1	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	14.6	17.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 87,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 24,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,388 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	43.4	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	62.0	4.5
– Net Position:	87,037	-111,252	24,215
– Gross Longs:	170,509	260,244	51,424
– Gross Shorts:	83,472	371,496	27,209
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.5	29.2	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.0	26.0	27.4

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 69,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -11,963 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,668 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.2	33.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	53.1	11.6
– Net Position:	69,705	-61,324	-8,381
– Gross Longs:	122,352	104,345	27,905
– Gross Shorts:	52,647	165,669	36,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	46.0	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	6.7	36.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -65,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,421 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	43.7	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.8	21.5	7.1
– Net Position:	-65,228	63,153	2,075
– Gross Longs:	62,355	124,457	22,248
– Gross Shorts:	127,583	61,304	20,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	99.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.7	14.7	31.4

COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 95,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 7,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,428 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	35.1	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	67.8	2.5
– Net Position:	95,447	-105,278	9,831
– Gross Longs:	134,337	113,271	17,856
– Gross Shorts:	38,890	218,549	8,025
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.9	6.4	72.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-6.4	9.1

COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 2,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,729 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	50.2	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	45.7	4.3
– Net Position:	-10,584	9,170	1,414
– Gross Longs:	33,972	102,317	10,134
– Gross Shorts:	44,556	93,147	8,720
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.7	86.9	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-6.9	12.6

WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 33,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,730 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	39.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	36.3	7.9
– Net Position:	-16,339	15,634	705
– Gross Longs:	117,880	171,307	34,741
– Gross Shorts:	134,219	155,673	34,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.5	16.2	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-19.7	-9.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

12 Jul

Euro Bets go Bearish, New Zealand Dollar Bets hit Record Low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 7th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (31,314 contracts) with the British Pound (14,244 contracts), Mexican Peso (6,421 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,544 contracts), US Dollar Index (253 contracts) and the Bitcoin (-270 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-22,320 contracts) and the EuroFX (-17,326 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (-13,826 contracts), Australian Dollar (-6,951 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-1,909 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

COT Currencies: Euro Bets go Bearish, New Zealand Dollar Bets hit Record Low

Highlighting major Currency speculator positions this week was the Euro, which saw speculator positions fall into a bearish territory this week for the first time since a brief dip into bearish territory in April. Overall, the Euro positions have now only seen two bearish positions out of the past 70 weeks. This week, Euro speculator bets fell for a third consecutive week and for the second week where bets fell by more than -17,000 contracts and this has brought the overall net position to a -16,227 net contract level. The recent Euro weakness has been a rather swift turnaround for the Euro, which started off the year of 2026 with extremely bullish positions that were routinely above +100,000 net contracts (+180,305 net contracts on February 10th). However, in March, the Euro position started to deteriorate and fall sharply, with the net position falling by a total of -121,371 contracts over the past 17 weeks dating back to March 10th.

In the Forex markets, and despite the sharp drop-off in speculator positions, the Euro exchange rate has continued to be relatively stable with this week’s close around 1.1445. This is slightly below the sideways trading range that had prevailed for roughly a year with 1.15 support on the downside and 1.1950 resistance on the upside. The 1.15 significant level may turn into a strong resistance level for future price action.

The New Zealand Dollar this week continued to fall for a fifth consecutive week and now has dropped to an all-time record low of -65,189 net contracts. Overall, the New Zealand Dollar has now been in a bearish position for just about a year, with the last bullish position dating back to July 15th of 2025. In Forex trading markets against the US Dollar, the New Zealand Dollar rose for a second consecutive week this week. However, the currency, in the big scheme of things, has been in a downtrend since falling below its 200-weekly moving average in 2022. In the past year, the currency has been in a sideways trading range that has seen support around the 0.5600 level, while there has been strong resistance at the 0.6050 threshold. This week’s close was at the 0.5775 price level.

Next up, the US Dollar Index has continued to see speculator bets improve with a very modest rise this week of just 253 contracts. This edge higher has brought the overall net position now to a total of 13,269 net contracts which is the highest bullish position for the US Dollar Index in over a year, dating back to March of 2025. The US Dollar Index in the Foreign Exchange markets, much like the Euro, has broken out of its sideways trading range (to the upside though) that was capped around the 100.20 level previously. This week, the DXY closed at the 100.75 exchange rate and will look to use the previous resistance as a support level to trend higher.

The Japanese Yen speculative bets surged this week by over 30,000 contracts. This is the second gain out of the past three weeks. However, the Japanese Yen speculator position is extremely bearish as the overall net position has been more than -100,000 net contracts for seven consecutive weeks. In the Forex markets, the Japanese Yen has been extremely weak as well, and is trading around its 40-year lows against the US Dollar. The USDJPY currency pair closed out the week at 161.66, which registers as a historically strong US Dollar weekly close against the Japanese Yen.

The British Pound Sterling speculative bets rose this week by over 14,000 net contracts and advanced for a second consecutive week. The British Pound Sterling net standing has been very weak as well with extreme bearish positions and settled in at a -87,903 net speculator contracts this week. The improvement in speculator bets this week took the GBP position out of a -100,000 net contract position that had prevailed the previous two weeks but overall, the GBP speculator positioning has now been in negative territory for 50 consecutive weeks, dating back to the last bullish reading on July 22nd of 2025. In the Forex markets, the British Pound Sterling has risen for two consecutive weeks and remains in a sideways trading band that has a support level of 1.3150 and a resistance level on the top side at 1.3750. This week, the GBP against the US Dollar closed at 1.3399.

The New Zealand Dollar leads Currency Market price performances

The major Currency Markets’ price performances were led this week by the New Zealand Dollar, which rose by 1.33%. Next up, the Brazilian Real was also higher than 1% with a 1.14% increase. Bitcoin was marginally higher by 0.71%, followed by the British Pound Sterling, which rose by 0.42% on the week.

The Australian Dollar saw an uptick by 0.35%, followed by the Canadian Dollar, which saw a similar edge higher by 0.34%. The US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged, but a bit higher at 0.09%, while the Japanese Yen saw virtually no change on the week.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso edged lower by -0.06% and was followed by the Euro, which dipped ever so slightly by -0.14%.

The biggest decliner on the week was the Swiss Franc with a modest decline of -0.57%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & US Dollar Index

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bitcoin (96 percent) and the US Dollar Index (80 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (62 percent) and the Mexican Peso (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (0 percent), the British Pound (7 percent), the Canadian Dollar (10 percent) and the Japanese Yen (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (79.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (79.3 percent)
EuroFX (23.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (30.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (7.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (1.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (16.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (8.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (26.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (23.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (19.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (42.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (46.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (55.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (51.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (62.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (72.4 percent)
Bitcoin (95.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (100.0 percent)

US Dollar Index & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Dollar Index (34 percent) and Bitcoin (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (14 percent) comes in as the next highest positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-44 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-32 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-30 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (33.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (36.4 percent)
EuroFX (-17.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-12.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-15.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (-2.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-16.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-4.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-4.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-44.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-51.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-43.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-53.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-32.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-23.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (13.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (6.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-29.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-19.2 percent)
Bitcoin (19.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (26.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 253 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,016 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.8	28.9	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	59.4	2.7
– Net Position:	13,269	-16,238	2,969
– Gross Longs:	31,921	15,452	4,401
– Gross Shorts:	18,652	31,690	1,432
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.9	12.4	93.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.5	-37.7	25.3

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -16,227 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -17,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,099 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	58.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	59.2	7.2
– Net Position:	-16,227	-10,024	26,251
– Gross Longs:	223,430	460,669	83,533
– Gross Shorts:	239,657	470,693	57,282
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	77.6	29.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	19.1	-20.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -87,903 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 14,244 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,147 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	73.7	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.8	39.0	12.1
– Net Position:	-87,903	98,366	-10,463
– Gross Longs:	44,564	208,613	23,832
– Gross Shorts:	132,467	110,247	34,295
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.2	91.0	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	12.5	-21.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -123,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 31,314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -155,092 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	56.3	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.3	25.5	10.7
– Net Position:	-123,778	122,823	955
– Gross Longs:	112,247	224,327	43,443
– Gross Shorts:	236,025	101,504	42,488
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.6	81.9	35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	3.8	-16.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -37,414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 1,544 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,958 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	81.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	32.9	22.4
– Net Position:	-37,414	52,179	-14,765
– Gross Longs:	10,561	87,557	9,362
– Gross Shorts:	47,975	35,378	24,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	84.5	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	11.4	-20.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -173,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -22,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,806 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	80.4	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.3	30.4	11.0
– Net Position:	-173,126	181,996	-8,870
– Gross Longs:	31,566	292,643	31,245
– Gross Shorts:	204,692	110,647	40,115
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.0	91.2	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.9	44.4	-17.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -24,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -6,951 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,700 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	45.5	16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.2	40.2	9.8
– Net Position:	-24,651	10,796	13,855
– Gross Longs:	71,962	93,234	34,015
– Gross Shorts:	96,613	82,438	20,160
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.9	53.5	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.9	39.8	-13.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -65,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,909 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,280 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	87.3	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.0	26.7	5.5
– Net Position:	-65,189	68,783	-3,594
– Gross Longs:	10,919	99,092	2,704
– Gross Shorts:	76,108	30,309	6,298
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	7.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.3	32.1	-10.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 77,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 6,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,936 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	39.2	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	80.1	1.4
– Net Position:	77,357	-81,273	3,916
– Gross Longs:	112,628	78,016	6,612
– Gross Shorts:	35,271	159,289	2,696
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	43.0	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-12.2	-9.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 30,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -13,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,674 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.5	22.5	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.3	56.8	1.6
– Net Position:	30,848	-33,921	3,073
– Gross Longs:	71,636	22,206	4,668
– Gross Shorts:	40,788	56,127	1,595
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	37.0	38.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.7	29.2	-0.5

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,770 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	85.3	0.2	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.8	17.3	5.9
– Net Position:	3,500	-3,217	-283
– Gross Longs:	16,073	38	821
– Gross Shorts:	12,573	3,255	1,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.7	6.0	22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-15.1	-20.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

12 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets see small gains for Silver & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the muted gains for the metals was Silver (647 contracts) with Gold (227 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-1,129 contracts), Copper (-516 contracts), Steel (-349 contracts) and with Palladium (-334 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Copper leads the Metals Markets price performances

In the major Metals Markets this week, Copper was the highest mover with a modest 0.93% gain over the past 5 days. Steel followed that with a 0.72% rise, and Palladium rounded out the gainers with a small 0.30% increase.

On the downside, Gold fell by -2.26% on the week, followed by Platinum with a -2.3% decrease.

The biggest decliner on the week was Silver, which declined by -5.28%.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (87 percent) and Steel (71 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (61.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (34 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score was Platinum (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (50.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (50.2 percent)
Silver (34.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (32.9 percent)
Copper (86.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (87.4 percent)
Platinum (45.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (48.5 percent)
Palladium (61.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (63.3 percent)
Steel (71.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (73.0 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (16 percent) and Silver (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-12 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (16.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.0 percent)
Silver (9.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (4.5 percent)
Copper (-7.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-10.0 percent)
Platinum (-9.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-7.3 percent)
Palladium (-11.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-12.1 percent)
Steel (-14.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-11.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 194,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 194,019 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.9	16.0	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	75.8	4.7
– Net Position:	194,246	-222,282	28,036
– Gross Longs:	233,713	59,564	45,636
– Gross Shorts:	39,467	281,846	17,600
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.3	47.1	47.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-14.6	-10.1

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 647 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,368 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.6	29.9	23.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	71.0	9.3
– Net Position:	28,015	-43,095	15,080
– Gross Longs:	39,446	31,337	24,829
– Gross Shorts:	11,431	74,432	9,749
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	68.4	35.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-3.5	-19.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 64,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,788 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.4	35.1	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	64.3	3.9
– Net Position:	64,272	-73,170	8,898
– Gross Longs:	96,440	88,070	18,622
– Gross Shorts:	32,168	161,240	9,724
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.9	13.0	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	8.9	-9.1

Platinum Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -1,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,001 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	33.6	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	66.6	7.0
– Net Position:	13,872	-17,702	3,830
– Gross Longs:	22,825	18,023	7,579
– Gross Shorts:	8,953	35,725	3,749
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.7	60.8	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	14.3	-20.9

Palladium Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -334 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,324 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.5	46.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.6	23.3	9.1
– Net Position:	-4,658	4,161	497
– Gross Longs:	6,345	8,315	2,127
– Gross Shorts:	11,003	4,154	1,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.1	43.1	35.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	12.9	-11.8

Steel Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,712 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	64.1	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	85.4	0.3
– Net Position:	8,363	-8,533	170
– Gross Longs:	11,353	25,662	274
– Gross Shorts:	2,990	34,195	104
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.4	29.3	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	14.8	-26.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

12 Jul

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (100,586 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (26,573 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 1-Month (-52,543 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-52,811 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-38,606 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-21,150 contracts), the Fed Funds (-18,236 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-11,115 contracts) and with the 10-Year Bonds (-5,371 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Bond Markets were mostly lower in price performances

In the US Bond Markets, the 1-month SOFR and the 3-month SOFR markets were the only risers on the week with each seeing very small upticks of 0.02%, respectively.

On the downside, the 2-year bond dipped by just -0.14% on the week, while the Fed Funds was lower by -0.28%. The 5-year bond fell by -0.35%, and the 10-year note was lower by -0.51%.

Leading the decliners on the week was the long US Treasury Bond with a -1.08% decline.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by 5-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (79 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (68 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The 2-Year Bonds (57 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the SOFR 3-Months (4 percent) and the Fed Funds (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the US Treasury Bonds (33 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (39 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (5.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (8.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (57.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (54.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (78.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (81.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (39.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (40.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (68.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (71.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (33.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (51.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (55.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (63.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (42.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (51.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (3.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (0.9 percent)

US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds and are the only positive mover for the week.

The Fed Funds (-35.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-29 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-35.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-33.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-0.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (32.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-2.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (-3.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (4.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-8.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-5.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (19.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (30.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-18.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-0.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-2.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-28.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-38.1 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -354,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -18,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -336,017 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	63.8	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	49.6	2.8
– Net Position:	-354,253	331,304	22,949
– Gross Longs:	267,644	1,483,848	88,287
– Gross Shorts:	621,897	1,152,544	65,338
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.6	92.0	89.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.1	33.2	26.1

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,775,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 100,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,876,540 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	66.6	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	45.4	0.3
– Net Position:	-2,775,954	2,774,055	1,899
– Gross Longs:	1,444,494	8,729,909	42,236
– Gross Shorts:	4,220,448	5,955,854	40,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.6	96.4	59.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.5	28.8	-7.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -204,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -52,543 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -151,904 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	62.4	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	47.8	1.7
– Net Position:	-204,447	214,212	-9,765
– Gross Longs:	223,532	913,894	15,478
– Gross Shorts:	427,979	699,682	25,243
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	59.6	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	3.2	-28.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,261,008 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 26,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,287,581 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	76.6	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	50.1	3.4
– Net Position:	-1,261,008	1,182,473	78,535
– Gross Longs:	475,562	3,417,464	231,968
– Gross Shorts:	1,736,570	2,234,991	153,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.3	45.2	22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	-2.1	12.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,359,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -38,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,320,510 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	84.2	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	62.8	5.9
– Net Position:	-1,359,116	1,330,507	28,609
– Gross Longs:	476,187	5,234,030	394,006
– Gross Shorts:	1,835,303	3,903,523	365,397
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	27.7	21.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	4.5	-12.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -814,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -5,371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -808,891 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	80.4	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	65.5	7.0
– Net Position:	-814,262	793,271	20,991
– Gross Longs:	548,331	4,274,288	392,944
– Gross Shorts:	1,362,593	3,481,017	371,953
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	72.3	14.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	41.8	-85.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -148,144 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -11,115 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -137,029 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	81.9	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	72.7	12.0
– Net Position:	-148,144	227,063	-78,919
– Gross Longs:	204,637	2,012,986	215,252
– Gross Shorts:	352,781	1,785,923	294,171
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	35.1	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	-2.0	31.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -143,591 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -52,811 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,780 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	73.2	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	72.1	6.7
– Net Position:	-143,591	19,958	123,633
– Gross Longs:	218,376	1,376,050	248,721
– Gross Shorts:	361,967	1,356,092	125,088
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	51.2	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-24.6	28.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -307,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -21,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -286,669 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	85.1	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	73.8	7.0
– Net Position:	-307,819	275,491	32,328
– Gross Longs:	138,733	2,073,781	203,972
– Gross Shorts:	446,552	1,798,290	171,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.7	47.6	48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	1.4	45.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

12 Jul

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil (9,883 contracts) with Natural Gas (5,496 contracts), Gasoline (3,893 contracts) and Heating Oil (1,594 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-34,782 contracts) and with the Bloomberg Index (-1,318 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Heating Oil leads Energy Markets price performance

Leading the Energy Markets price performances this week was Heating Oil, which saw a gain by 9.63% over the past five days. Gasoline came in second with a 7.59% rise, while Brent Oil was third with a 6.16% increase. WTI Crude Oil was up by 4.11% on the week and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rounded out the gainers with a 3.46% advance.

On the downside, Natural Gas was the only decliner with a -8.10% drop.

All of these six Energy Markets have seen lower levels or negative price gains over the past 30 days, while over the past 90 days, all of the Energy Markets have been lower except for the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which has risen by 3.32% in the past 90 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Index, Gasoline & Heating Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bloomberg Index (51.6 percent), Gasoline (51.4 percent) and Heating Oil (50.4 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, WTI Crude (11.6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Natural Gas (26.4 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (11.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (22.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (40.4 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (24.8 percent)
Natural Gas (26.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (22.9 percent)
Gasoline (51.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (47.1 percent)
Heating Oil (50.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (48.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (51.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (52.8 percent)

Bloomberg Index & Natural Gas top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bloomberg Index (38.0 percent) and Natural Gas (24.3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. Brent Crude Oil (12.9 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude (-27.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-27.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-20.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (12.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-15.1 percent)
Natural Gas (24.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (13.7 percent)
Gasoline (4.0 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (3.8 percent)
Heating Oil (3.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-2.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (38.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (40.2 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 75,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -34,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,531 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	48.5	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	54.0	2.6
– Net Position:	75,749	-104,622	28,873
– Gross Longs:	317,773	924,510	78,825
– Gross Shorts:	242,024	1,029,132	49,952
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	84.8	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.5	27.8	-11.1

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -24,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 9,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,532 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	36.0	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	26.7	2.6
– Net Position:	-24,649	22,442	2,207
– Gross Longs:	51,281	86,780	8,476
– Gross Shorts:	75,930	64,338	6,269
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	56.0	53.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-5.8	-46.6

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -165,307 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 5,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -170,803 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	32.4	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	23.5	2.3
– Net Position:	-165,307	149,504	15,803
– Gross Longs:	273,556	541,591	53,470
– Gross Shorts:	438,863	392,087	37,667
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.4	74.0	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.3	-26.0	7.1

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 3,893 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,331 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	42.0	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	63.2	4.7
– Net Position:	58,224	-67,028	8,804
– Gross Longs:	101,734	132,929	23,619
– Gross Shorts:	43,510	199,957	14,815
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	44.8	57.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	1.4	-22.8

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 1,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,668 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	46.2	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	54.7	9.9
– Net Position:	5,262	-23,596	18,334
– Gross Longs:	49,554	127,375	45,673
– Gross Shorts:	44,292	150,971	27,339
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.4	44.1	68.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	6.0	-24.3

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,578 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.5	50.7	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.1	33.3	0.0
– Net Position:	-31,896	31,468	428
– Gross Longs:	84,392	91,955	487
– Gross Shorts:	116,288	60,487	59
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	8.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	48.4	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.0	-37.9	-1.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Energy Financial News

12 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar, Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar, Corn & Soybeans

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (37,457 contracts) with Corn (36,803 contracts), Soybeans (36,180 contracts), Soybean Meal (13,702 contracts), Cotton (10,580 contracts), Wheat (5,274 contracts), Coffee (5,092 contracts) and Cocoa (1,731 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the decreases in weekly speculator bets were Live Cattle (-6,193 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,783 contracts) and with Lean Hogs (-2,150 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Cocoa leads Soft Commodities Price Performances

This week’s Soft Commodities price performances were led by super strong performances from Cocoa and Coffee. Cocoa jumped by 18.61% this week, followed by Coffee, which was higher by 12.13%. Next up, Cotton rose higher by 5.74%, while Wheat advanced by 5.42%, and Soybean Oil was also higher by over 5% with a 5.38% increase.

Soybean Meal was higher than 3% with a 3.46% rise, while Corn saw an advance by 2.56%. Soybeans rose by 1.84% on the week, while Lean Hogs was up marginally by 0.25%, and Sugar saw a minuscule uptick by 0.07%.

On the downside, Live Cattle was the only decliner on the week with a -1.60% decrease.

Cocoa and Coffee have been seeing strong trends higher as Cocoa is up by over 44% in the past 30 days, while Coffee is up by 25% in the past 30 days. Cocoa’s 90-day gain is now a whopping 97.72%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (92 percent) leads the softs markets this week. Soybeans (69 percent), Soybean Oil (69 percent), Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Live Cattle (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Cocoa (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (39 percent) and the Coffee (49 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (50.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (44.9 percent)
Sugar (39.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (31.5 percent)
Coffee (48.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (43.8 percent)
Soybeans (68.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (60.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (68.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (60.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (55.0 percent)
Live Cattle (58.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (64.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (1.3 percent)
Cotton (91.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (85.4 percent)
Cocoa (9.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.2 percent)
Wheat (57.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (53.0 percent)

Coffee & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (9 percent) and Sugar (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cocoa (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-34 percent), Corn (-27 percent) and Lean Hogs (-24 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-27.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-40.0 percent)
Sugar (4.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-3.6 percent)
Coffee (9.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (4.6 percent)
Soybeans (-20.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-30.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-18.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-23.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-37.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-45.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-5.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-3.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-24.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-32.8 percent)
Cotton (0.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-8.7 percent)
Cocoa (3.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.9 percent)
Wheat (-33.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-46.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 100,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 36,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,177 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	40.9	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	44.9	10.2
– Net Position:	100,980	-67,654	-33,326
– Gross Longs:	478,153	700,793	141,480
– Gross Shorts:	377,173	768,447	174,806
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	46.9	76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.4	24.8	31.5

SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -59,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 37,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,730 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	46.5	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	41.0	7.5
– Net Position:	-59,273	55,415	3,858
– Gross Longs:	263,310	464,352	78,490
– Gross Shorts:	322,583	408,937	74,632
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.0	62.7	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-4.1	3.0

COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 5,092 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,531 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	35.7	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	51.5	3.4
– Net Position:	25,623	-27,568	1,945
– Gross Longs:	59,414	62,308	7,876
– Gross Shorts:	33,791	89,876	5,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.9	51.5	49.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-10.5	31.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 112,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 36,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,627 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	50.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	59.6	7.2
– Net Position:	112,807	-85,585	-27,222
– Gross Longs:	215,618	495,676	43,415
– Gross Shorts:	102,811	581,261	70,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.7	33.0	27.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.4	20.8	2.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 94,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -4,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,449 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	47.6	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	63.8	4.1
– Net Position:	94,666	-104,308	9,642
– Gross Longs:	150,422	305,646	35,851
– Gross Shorts:	55,756	409,954	26,209
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.8	30.5	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	19.8	-21.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 13,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,686 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	44.7	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	59.2	4.4
– Net Position:	62,388	-86,217	23,829
– Gross Longs:	169,619	266,258	50,121
– Gross Shorts:	107,231	352,475	26,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.5	39.3	76.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.4	38.2	-14.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 81,668 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -6,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,861 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	30.4	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	52.7	11.4
– Net Position:	81,668	-70,893	-10,775
– Gross Longs:	138,662	96,239	25,345
– Gross Shorts:	56,994	167,132	36,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	34.1	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	5.5	2.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -2,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,271 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	44.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.5	23.1	6.9
– Net Position:	-64,421	62,268	2,153
– Gross Longs:	67,415	130,907	22,710
– Gross Shorts:	131,836	68,639	20,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	23.1	27.3

COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 88,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 10,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,848 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.2	34.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	65.0	2.6
– Net Position:	88,428	-95,539	7,111
– Gross Longs:	137,454	111,052	15,463
– Gross Shorts:	49,026	206,591	8,352
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.7	11.7	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	0.7	-11.0

COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 1,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,460 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	49.7	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	44.0	4.9
– Net Position:	-12,729	11,372	1,357
– Gross Longs:	38,399	98,437	11,012
– Gross Shorts:	51,128	87,065	9,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.8	88.8	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-3.4	3.9

WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position uptick of 5,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,004 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	40.7	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	28.3	8.3
– Net Position:	-49,730	50,894	-1,164
– Gross Longs:	111,128	167,760	33,278
– Gross Shorts:	160,858	116,866	34,442
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.5	46.7	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.9	37.5	-17.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

11 Jul

Speculator Extremes: Bitcoin, Cotton Copper & USD Index lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday July 7th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled an increase by 19 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 3,500 net contracts this week with a drop of -270 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

The Bitcoin speculator strength can be seen as hedging activity. We have seen over the past years that when the Bitcoin price goes up, speculator strength falls (and can be bearish extreme) and like the current moment – when the Bitcoin price is pressured lower, the speculator positions are extremely bullish. The typical role of speculators in most of the futures markets has been as trend-followers or momentum traders that buy when price goes up and sell when price goes down but the Bitcoin market (as well as some of the stock market indexes) has shown the speculators to take hedging stances as well.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week with the Cotton speculator level now at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was no change this week while the speculator position registered 88,428 net contracts this week with a rise of 10,580 contracts in speculator bets.

Copper

The Copper speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings as the Copper speculator level resides at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a decrease of -8 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 64,272 net contracts this week with a decline of -516 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week ans the USD Index speculator level is at a 80 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a lift of 34 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was 13,269 net contracts this week with a gain of 253 contracts in the speculator bets.

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The DowJones-Mini speculator level sits at a 79 percent score of its 3-year range and the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an increase by 31 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 11,480 net contracts this week with a fall of -589 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the Lean Hogs speculator level at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -24 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -64,421 net contracts this week with a retreat of -2,150 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in tied as well for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The NZD speculator level is also at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction of -32 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -65,189 net contracts this week with a retreat of -1,909 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The SOFR 3-Months speculator level now resides at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a retreat of -29 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -2,775,954 net contracts this week with a gain of 100,586 contracts in the speculator bets.

Fed Funds

The Fed Funds speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the FedFunds speculator level at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop of -35 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -354,253 net contracts this week with a retreat of -18,236 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

Next, the British Pound speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week as the GBP speculator level is at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction of -11 percentage points this week while the speculator net position was -87,903 net contracts this week with a boost of 14,244 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Opinions

27 Jun

Currency Speculators continue to sharply raise British Pound Sterling bearish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 23rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (4,028 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (2,685 contracts), the Mexican Peso (2,436 contracts) and Bitcoin (49 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-34,134 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-13,891 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-9,683 contracts), Australian Dollar (-8,887 contracts), the EuroFX (-4,195 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,036 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-269 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators continue to sharply raise British Pound Sterling bearish bets

Highlighting this week’s currencies speculative data is the British Pound Sterling‘s sharp weakness that has pushed the current speculative position to the fourth most bearish level on record. Speculators dropped their British Pound Sterling bets this week by -34,134 contracts, marking the third consecutive week of speculator decreases — and the speculative position has now fallen by over -53,500 contracts in just these past three weeks. This weakness has brought the overall speculator standing to a total of -105,719 standing net contracts. This marks the fourth most bearish level on record and is only less bearish than the levels that were reached for the speculators’ standing in March and April of 2017. The British Pound Sterling speculator bets have now been in bearish territory for 48 consecutive weeks, dating back to July 29th of 2025. In the Forex trading market, the British Pound Sterling dipped for a second consecutive week and is now trading at the bottom of its sideways trading channel near the 1.3200 threshold. The Pound Sterling has been in this sideways trading channel for approximately a year, with the high levels being capped around 1.3800, while the bottom has seen support at 1.3150.

The Canadian Dollar speculator position continues to deteriorate and has now fallen for seven consecutive weeks. This seven-week period has added a total of -132,133 net contracts to the bearish level. This has brought the overall net position to a total of -146,792 contracts in the third consecutive week that has seen the net position with contracts higher than -100,000. The Canadian net speculative position has been in bearish territory for 14 consecutive weeks, following a reprieve from negative bets that spanned from February 3rd to March 17th. That saw positive positions for the Canadian Dollar. This coincided with higher Oil prices, which is a major factor in Canadian exports. Currently, in the Currency markets, the Canadian Dollar has been falling rapidly and has fallen in five out of the previous seven weeks. The Canadian Dollar has broken through its previously ascending triangle pattern that had seen an upward trend line coinciding with the 200-week moving average. This week, the Canadian Dollar fell to its most bearish level since April of 2025 and tested support at 0.7050.

Next up, a currency on the rise has been the US Dollar Index (DX). The Dollar Index saw a dip this week but has risen to multi-month highs in its weekly net speculator standing over the past few weeks. This week, the US Dollar Index saw a dip by a small -269 net contract bets following last week’s strong jump by +11,813 contracts. The standing US Dollar Index net position has now been over +12,000 contracts for a second consecutive week and is at the highest levels since March of 2025. Overall, the US Dollar Index net position standing has now been in bullish or positive territory for 14 out of the past 15 weeks, including the past five weeks in a row. The Dollar Index in the currency trading markets has just recently broken out of its sideways trading band that had sustained for approximately a year. The 100.00 level had provided strong resistance to the currency, but in the last two weeks, the Dollar Index has broken out above and closed this week at 101.12. This marks the highest close since April of 2025. The next level of resistance above for further bullish action is around the 102.50 level, while we could see support for the Dollar Index at the 100.00–100.50 area.

US Dollar Index leads Currency price performances

The Currencies’ price performance this week was led by the US Dollar Index, which rose by 0.43% over the past five days. The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged on the week, followed by the Japanese Yen, which edged down slightly by -0.11%.

Next up, the Swiss Franc also slid by a minuscule amount with a -0.13% decline, followed by the British Pound Sterling, which dipped by -0.16%, and the Brazilian Real, which also was lower by -0.16%. The Euro declined by -0.60% on the week, while the Mexican Peso was down by -0.94%.

The Currencies that fell by over 1% this week were the Australian Dollar, with a dip of -1.51%, followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which fell by -1.55% over the past five days.

The biggest decliner on the week was Bitcoin, which dropped by -5.71%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & US Dollar Index

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bitcoin (100 percent) and the US Dollar Index (79 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (72 percent) and the Mexican Peso (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (0 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (2 percent), the Japanese Yen (10 percent) and the Swiss Franc (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (79.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (79.8 percent)
EuroFX (41.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (43.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (0.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (21.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (21.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (27.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (48.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (53.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (2.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (13.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (53.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (51.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.8 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (99.2 percent)

Bitcoin & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (38 percent) and the US Dollar Index (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (7 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-56 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-51 percent), British Pound (-25 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-20 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (26.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.8 percent)
EuroFX (-3.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-25.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-19.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-24.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-10.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-11.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-56.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-50.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-50.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-42.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-17.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (7.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (6.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-18.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-18.8 percent)
Bitcoin (37.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,197 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.4	25.6	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	55.2	3.1
– Net Position:	12,928	-16,246	3,318
– Gross Longs:	34,278	14,069	5,010
– Gross Shorts:	21,350	30,315	1,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.0	12.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.3	-31.6	33.3

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -4,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,353 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	55.0	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	62.3	6.9
– Net Position:	30,158	-57,183	27,025
– Gross Longs:	247,332	431,837	81,337
– Gross Shorts:	217,174	489,020	54,312
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.3	61.4	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	7.5	-25.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -105,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -34,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,585 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	78.2	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.3	36.7	12.4
– Net Position:	-105,719	123,431	-17,712
– Gross Longs:	40,772	232,430	19,092
– Gross Shorts:	146,491	108,999	36,804
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	7.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.3	28.4	-41.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -146,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 4,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,132 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	58.5	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.3	25.5	10.1
– Net Position:	-146,104	142,381	3,723
– Gross Longs:	113,698	252,278	47,306
– Gross Shorts:	259,802	109,897	43,583
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.5	86.8	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.5	17.2	7.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -1,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,058 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	83.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.2	31.6	23.2
– Net Position:	-41,094	56,495	-15,401
– Gross Longs:	7,975	90,828	9,792
– Gross Shorts:	49,069	34,333	25,193
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.8	91.6	13.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	19.9	-31.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -146,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -13,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,901 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	78.0	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.3	32.6	11.5
– Net Position:	-146,792	155,789	-8,997
– Gross Longs:	39,429	267,566	30,351
– Gross Shorts:	186,221	111,777	39,348
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.3	80.7	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-56.2	57.3	-34.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -8,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,125 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.3	45.3	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.4	45.7	9.6
– Net Position:	-13,012	-863	13,875
– Gross Longs:	82,200	97,086	34,390
– Gross Shorts:	95,212	97,949	20,515
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.9	48.4	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.7	48.4	-27.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -54,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -9,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,161 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	84.0	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.8	28.4	6.0
– Net Position:	-54,844	57,522	-2,678
– Gross Longs:	12,114	86,813	3,469
– Gross Shorts:	66,958	29,291	6,147
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.2	98.8	15.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	18.0	-4.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,789 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	39.7	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	78.8	1.7
– Net Position:	74,225	-77,667	3,442
– Gross Longs:	112,389	78,775	6,786
– Gross Shorts:	38,164	156,442	3,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	45.5	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.2	-6.1	-8.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,994 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.8	22.2	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	67.2	1.3
– Net Position:	43,679	-47,025	3,346
– Gross Longs:	74,888	23,105	4,718
– Gross Shorts:	31,209	70,130	1,372
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.7	27.7	39.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	18.7	-7.2

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 49 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,475 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.5	0.3	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.4	16.2	5.9
– Net Position:	3,524	-3,253	-271
– Gross Longs:	16,348	70	935
– Gross Shorts:	12,824	3,323	1,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	5.3	23.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.7	-19.9	-60.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

27 Jun

Speculator Extremes: Bitcoin, Copper, GBP & Lean Hogs lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday June 23rd.

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the speculators tend to use the futures as a hedging instrument for Bitcoin. The Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise higher by 38 percentage points this week while the overall net speculator position was a total of 3,524 net contracts this week with an increase of 49 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Copper

The Copper speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week with the Copper speculator level now at a 94 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a decline of -4 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 71,620 net contracts this week with a decrease of -3,730 contracts in speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings as the Cotton speculator level resides at a 89 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a decline of -11 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was 83,558 net contracts this week with an increase of 4,881 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week as the Steel speculator level is currently at an 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a boost of 2 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was 11,781 net contracts this week with a decline of -216 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings with the 5-Year speculator level sitting at a 82 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an advance by 4 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -1,301,269 net contracts this week with a rise of 48,908 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the GBP speculator level is at a 0 percent minimum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -25 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -105,719 net contracts this week with a retreat of -34,134 contracts in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in second for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the Lean Hogs speculator level at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a retreat of -34 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -57,209 net contracts this week with a rise of 2,133 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The NZD speculator level resides at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -18 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -54,844 net contracts this week with a decline of -9,683 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing as the Cocoa speculator level is at just a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a retreat of -6 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -19,789 net contracts this week with an advance of 1,091 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Lastly, the 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week with the SOFR 3-Months speculator level at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -45 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -2,808,392 net contracts this week with an addition of 100,586 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.