Archive for COT Updates – Page 2

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell & Nikkei 225

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & Nikkei 225

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (3,729 contracts) with the Nikkei 225 (1,604 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (1,085 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (760 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-35,387 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-6,688 contracts) and the VIX (-3,151 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Stock Markets Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (86 percent) and the Russell-Mini (72 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (29 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score is the Nasdaq-Mini (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (62.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (65.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (29.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (34.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (85.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (84.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (40.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (71.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (68.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (48.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (36.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (44.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (51.7 percent)


Nikkei 225 & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (9 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-59 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-14 percent) coming in as the next lowest market in trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (5.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (3.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-2.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-2.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-6.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-58.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-50.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-6.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-11.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (9.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-3.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (8.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (15.2 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -49,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.645.17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.731.68.2
– Net Position:-49,10650,627-1,521
– Gross Longs:70,068169,37929,419
– Gross Shorts:119,174118,75230,940
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.034.888.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.9-7.05.0

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -239,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -35,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -204,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.571.410.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.466.17.2
– Net Position:-239,827141,73198,096
– Gross Longs:280,7181,911,694291,700
– Gross Shorts:520,5451,769,963193,604
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.059.576.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.1-0.15.7

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 15,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.950.614.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.066.512.4
– Net Position:15,671-17,8182,147
– Gross Longs:30,25156,88516,125
– Gross Shorts:14,58074,70313,978
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.812.454.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.212.41.0

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,395 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.456.813.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.959.411.3
– Net Position:1,395-8,6447,249
– Gross Longs:87,501188,65644,899
– Gross Shorts:86,106197,30037,650
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.343.094.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-58.743.0-3.7

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -19,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.780.35.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.177.64.6
– Net Position:-19,09414,9914,103
– Gross Longs:66,221453,34029,908
– Gross Shorts:85,315438,34925,805
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.530.142.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.110.6-26.6

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.763.624.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.060.913.1
– Net Position:-2,5925012,091
– Gross Longs:2,10011,4694,451
– Gross Shorts:4,69210,9682,360
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.0 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.238.971.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.0-8.31.3

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.988.82.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.186.41.1
– Net Position:-20,94312,0628,881
– Gross Longs:38,994439,22014,460
– Gross Shorts:59,937427,1585,579
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.749.461.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.9-12.417.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: GBP, Peso, Soybeans & Australian Dollar lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on March 12th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the COT data tables or COT leaders tables)


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound


The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The British Pound speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 24.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 70,451 net contracts this week with an increase of 12,066 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


Mexican Peso


The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 98.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 14.0 this week. The speculator position registered 104,292 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -2,294 contracts in speculator bets.


Brent Oil


The Brent Oil speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Brent Oil speculator level resides at a 91.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 22.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -11,141 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -1,489 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Steel


The Steel speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Steel speculator level is at a 87.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -0.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,237 net contracts this week with a dip of -560 contracts in the speculator bets.


DowJones Mini


The DowJones Mini speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The DowJones Mini speculator level sits at a 85.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score has been falling recently and was -14.2 this week.

The speculator position was 15,671 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,085 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Soybeans


The Soybeans speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 3.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -180,413 net contracts this week with a gain of 16,828 contracts in the speculator bets.


Soybean Meal


The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 4.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score has been falling and was -9.4 this week. The speculator position was -56,887 net contracts this week with an improvement by 2,622 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Australian Dollar


The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Australian Dollar speculator level resides at a 5.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -29.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -90,840 net contracts this week with a drop of -6,097 contracts in the speculator bets.


Swiss Franc


The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 8.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a strong shortfall by -40.8 this week. The speculator position was -17,870 net contracts this week with a decline of -319 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Corn


Finally, the Corn speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 9.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise by 4.4 this week. The speculator position was -189,030 net contracts this week with a gain of 41,857 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Japanese Yen Speculators sharply renew bearish bets for 7th straight week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 27th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by New Zealand Dollar & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the New Zealand Dollar (3,431 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (2,699 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,004 contracts), the US Dollar Index (537 contracts), Bitcoin (131 contracts) and the British Pound (46 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-11,927 contracts), the EuroFX (-5,162 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-2,181 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,058 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (-515 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculators sharply renew their bearish bets for 7th straight week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is strong renewal in bearish bets for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculative yen positions dropped for a seventh straight week this week and have now fallen by a total of -76,756 contracts over these past seven weeks.

This renewed bearishness for the yen has pushed the net position (currently at -132,705 contracts) to the most negative position since November 14th of 2017 (when it fell to -135,999 contracts), the lowest level in a span of 328 weeks.

Just a couple of months ago, the yen speculative positioning had been improving and was at it’s best level in 39-weeks (at -55,568 contracts on December 26th). This optimism was based on the hopes that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) would look to end its negative interest rate policy and its asset-buying program. However, the BOJ has maintained its policy so far in 2024 and speculator hopes for yen strength have been postponed.

The yen exchange rate has taken a large hit in the aftermath with the US Dollar’s exchange versus the yen shooting higher and closing in on the recent 2023 highs. The USDJPY currency pair is up by almost 7 percent since the beginning of the year and has risen in seven out of the past nine weeks. This week’s close was right above the 150.00 level is slightly below the November 2023 high of 151.90.

The USDJPY prices above the 150.00 level are very rare in recent years as these levels had not been reached since 1990 — until this threshold was breached in 2022, 2023 and now in 2024. The yen has now lost approximately 45 percent of its value versus the US Dollar since January of 2021 when the USDJPY traded around 103.00.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (96 percent), the British Pound (88 percent) and New Zealand Dollar (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (58 percent) and the Brazilian Real (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (0 percent) and the Australian Dollar (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (20 percent) and the Swiss Franc (25 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (20.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (19.4 percent)
EuroFX (47.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (49.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (87.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (87.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (8.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (24.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (58.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (16.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (13.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (81.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (72.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (96.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (57.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (55.9 percent)
Bitcoin (36.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (34.8 percent)


New Zealand Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (34 percent) and the British Pound (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (10 percent) and the Mexican Peso (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-55 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-29 percent), Swiss Franc (-24 percent) and the EuroFX (-18 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.5 percent)
EuroFX (-17.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-21.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-54.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-46.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-23.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-15.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (5.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-28.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-45.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (33.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (7.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-9.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-11.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-14.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-7.2 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,546 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:63.718.911.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:56.730.27.3
– Net Position:2,083-3,3231,240
– Gross Longs:18,8275,5993,387
– Gross Shorts:16,7448,9222,147
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.6 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.481.625.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.5-3.714.5

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,854 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,016 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.757.511.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.970.07.4
– Net Position:62,854-89,90127,047
– Gross Longs:205,234411,11780,334
– Gross Shorts:142,380501,01853,287
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.155.622.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.617.4-8.6

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 46 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.635.914.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.660.412.2
– Net Position:46,358-51,5905,232
– Gross Longs:91,97075,76231,048
– Gross Shorts:45,612127,35225,816
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.6 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.916.868.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.7-11.510.2

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -132,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -120,778 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.666.014.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:59.423.413.7
– Net Position:-132,705131,982723
– Gross Longs:51,261204,42543,296
– Gross Shorts:183,96672,44342,573
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.098.984.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-54.757.418.5

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,058 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.362.412.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.726.130.6
– Net Position:-11,98123,709-11,728
– Gross Longs:15,85740,7168,251
– Gross Shorts:27,83817,00719,979
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.4 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.776.923.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.556.1-69.1

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.754.417.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.554.716.7
– Net Position:-1,378-5731,951
– Gross Longs:41,15890,54629,731
– Gross Shorts:42,53691,11927,780
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.951.127.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.1-3.4-14.5

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -79,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,875 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.263.19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.819.314.6
– Net Position:-79,17689,777-10,601
– Gross Longs:49,640129,29219,390
– Gross Shorts:128,81639,51529,991
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 13.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.384.527.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.738.8-49.0

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,431 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.436.110.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.761.75.5
– Net Position:10,057-12,4252,368
– Gross Longs:23,94217,4745,020
– Gross Shorts:13,88529,8992,652
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.616.484.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.7-28.3-6.6

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 93,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,995 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.138.93.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.477.61.1
– Net Position:93,814-98,8955,081
– Gross Longs:146,11899,7277,980
– Gross Shorts:52,304198,6222,899
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.5 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.03.643.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.4-7.42.6

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 17,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.443.44.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.370.31.7
– Net Position:17,526-19,5922,066
– Gross Longs:34,55031,6533,337
– Gross Shorts:17,02451,2451,271
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.6 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.241.553.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.39.3-2.0

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:79.47.06.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:87.23.22.8
– Net Position:-1,9679601,007
– Gross Longs:20,0341,7591,726
– Gross Shorts:22,001799719
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 12.2 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.889.135.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.625.1-0.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (14,339 contracts) with Gold (1,374 contracts) and Palladium (138 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-7,878 contracts), Platinum (-4,894 contracts) and Steel with a dip of -234 contracts.


Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (85 percent) leads the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Platinum (26 percent) this week.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (40.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (39.7 percent)
Silver (41.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (53.6 percent)
Copper (38.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.1 percent)
Platinum (26.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.6 percent)
Palladium (7.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (6.4 percent)
Steel (85.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.0 percent)


Copper tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (26 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover in the latest data.

Platinum (-23 percent), Gold (-17 percent) and Silver (-17 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-17.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-21.8 percent)
Silver (-16.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-6.1 percent)
Copper (26.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-3.1 percent)
Platinum (-22.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-38.1 percent)
Palladium (-5.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-18.0 percent)
Steel (-4.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (-4.7 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 141,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 140,262 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.326.49.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.864.95.4
– Net Position:141,636-158,35216,716
– Gross Longs:214,948108,43238,943
– Gross Shorts:73,312266,78422,227
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.360.727.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.220.0-34.7

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.834.021.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.756.59.0
– Net Position:14,499-32,44817,949
– Gross Longs:54,54649,11230,987
– Gross Shorts:40,04781,56013,038
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.6 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.652.866.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.914.2-1.2

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,942 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.736.78.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.636.57.8
– Net Position:-1,6032801,323
– Gross Longs:69,67369,61416,214
– Gross Shorts:71,27669,33414,891
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.165.326.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.5-23.0-7.1

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.823.410.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.733.94.4
– Net Position:3,601-9,2015,600
– Gross Longs:49,89820,5709,492
– Gross Shorts:46,29729,7713,892
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.7 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.272.043.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.721.1-4.5

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 138 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,453 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.762.78.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:78.55.27.8
– Net Position:-12,31512,27342
– Gross Longs:4,41113,3721,708
– Gross Shorts:16,7261,0991,666
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 112.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.295.544.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.28.3-32.0

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,935 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -234 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,701 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.282.81.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.472.00.7
– Net Position:-2,9352,84986
– Gross Longs:2,93721,733269
– Gross Shorts:5,87218,884183
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.115.541.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.44.8-12.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 2-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (165,226 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (80,756 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (63,484 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (37,907 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (5,584 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (2,977 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1,139 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The only market with a decline was the Fed Funds with a drop by -58,874 contracts for the week.


Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (80 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (79 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (57 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 10-Year Bonds (21 percent) and the Fed Funds (21 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (21.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (33.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (34.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (23.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (17.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (15.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (16.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (15.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (78.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (50.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (56.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (55.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (79.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (79.3 percent)


US Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (40 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (17 percent) are the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-33 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-19 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-33.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-5.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (16.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (8.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-4.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-5.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (39.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (21.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (1.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-4.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-19.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-16.4 percent)


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 373,974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 368,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.954.70.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.458.10.3
– Net Position:373,974-366,966-7,008
– Gross Longs:1,825,9585,914,86126,690
– Gross Shorts:1,451,9846,281,82733,698
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.620.684.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.519.6-0.4

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -221,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -58,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -162,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.070.31.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.959.31.8
– Net Position:-221,404223,075-1,671
– Gross Longs:264,2441,427,60934,288
– Gross Shorts:485,6481,204,53435,959
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.377.187.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.229.433.2

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -943,898 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 165,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,109,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.380.47.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.358.93.5
– Net Position:-943,898809,780134,118
– Gross Longs:387,1383,030,544267,240
– Gross Shorts:1,331,0362,220,764133,122
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.4 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.062.095.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.5-20.27.6

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,195,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 37,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,233,300 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.383.87.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.066.34.8
– Net Position:-1,195,3931,058,803136,590
– Gross Longs:382,3965,074,656428,067
– Gross Shorts:1,577,7894,015,853291,477
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.579.091.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.11.0-3.1

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -665,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 63,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -729,066 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.577.19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.263.58.4
– Net Position:-665,582616,38549,197
– Gross Longs:474,5293,492,870429,894
– Gross Shorts:1,140,1112,876,485380,697
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.973.784.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.9-26.3-3.8

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -189,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,139 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -191,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.575.59.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.063.812.6
– Net Position:-189,900261,839-71,939
– Gross Longs:281,6551,696,545210,640
– Gross Shorts:471,5551,434,706282,579
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.083.671.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.45.12.5

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,038 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 80,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.566.213.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.468.410.0
– Net Position:-14,038-33,38247,420
– Gross Longs:237,9781,015,447201,594
– Gross Shorts:252,0161,048,829154,174
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.60.083.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:39.6-41.0-7.4

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -319,783 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,977 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -322,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.877.510.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.160.28.9
– Net Position:-319,783287,81831,965
– Gross Longs:146,3361,287,850179,326
– Gross Shorts:466,1191,000,032147,361
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.937.167.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.2-9.214.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE-Mini (14,518 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (5,977 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (1,460 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-15,315 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (-5,693 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-1,574 contracts) and the VIX (-1,633 contracts).


Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

 


Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (90 percent) and the VIX (77 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 (29 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (31 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (77.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (78.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (31.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (32.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (89.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (87.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (55.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (78.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (72.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (67.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (29.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (40.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (49.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (34.1 percent)


MSCI EAFE-Mini & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (3 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (1 percent) are the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-23 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (2.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-8.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-15.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (1.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-12.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-40.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-17.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-23.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-32.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-5.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-7.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (13.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-2.1 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,704 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.644.97.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.933.18.0
– Net Position:-40,70442,920-2,216
– Gross Longs:74,471162,35626,855
– Gross Shorts:115,175119,43629,071
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.019.685.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.6-4.512.6

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -224,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -218,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.773.211.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.367.27.7
– Net Position:-224,223141,21483,009
– Gross Longs:298,5381,716,692263,456
– Gross Shorts:522,7611,575,478180,447
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.359.470.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.25.46.4

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.551.315.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.072.411.6
– Net Position:18,188-21,9573,769
– Gross Longs:32,77953,39915,869
– Gross Shorts:14,59175,35612,100
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.96.462.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.3-6.317.3

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.553.213.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.959.411.1
– Net Position:10,246-17,7027,456
– Gross Longs:90,667153,36139,468
– Gross Shorts:80,421171,06332,012
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.033.196.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.823.114.2

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -18,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,977 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,205 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.580.26.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.178.74.1
– Net Position:-18,2287,95610,272
– Gross Longs:64,457413,10431,433
– Gross Shorts:82,685405,14821,161
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.225.663.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.020.23.5

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,574 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.165.625.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.248.113.7
– Net Position:-5,2943,1902,104
– Gross Longs:1,66911,9744,600
– Gross Shorts:6,9638,7842,496
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.055.371.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.8-0.815.4

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,518 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.786.93.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.584.12.0
– Net Position:-16,68411,9984,686
– Gross Longs:41,874375,97513,462
– Gross Shorts:58,558363,9778,776
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.149.440.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.9-13.0-3.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Corn & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were a bit higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (33,463 contracts) with Lean Hogs (12,790 contracts), Sugar (11,564 contracts), Wheat (7,658 contracts), Cotton (7,212 contracts) and Live Cattle (4,119 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-21,367 contracts) with Soybeans (-30,944 contracts), Coffee (-4,163 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,985 contracts) and Cocoa (-6,938 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Cotton & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (86 percent) and Coffee (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (54 percent), Cocoa (52 percent) and Live Cattle (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Oil (0 percent), Soybean Meal (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent) and Corn (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (4.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.0 percent)
Sugar (27.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.8 percent)
Coffee (80.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (84.7 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (7.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.8 percent)
Live Cattle (50.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (45.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (53.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.2 percent)
Cotton (85.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (80.3 percent)
Cocoa (52.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (59.1 percent)
Wheat (41.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (36.5 percent)


Cotton & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (68 percent) and Live Cattle (47 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (45 percent), Sugar (16 percent) and Wheat (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-23 percent), Soybeans (-22 percent) and Soybean Oil (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-1.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-11.5 percent)
Sugar (15.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.2 percent)
Coffee (2.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (10.5 percent)
Soybeans (-22.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-27.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-7.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-3.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-22.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-17.6 percent)
Live Cattle (46.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (41.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (45.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (33.7 percent)
Cotton (68.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (67.1 percent)
Cocoa (-29.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-21.2 percent)
Wheat (6.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.8 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -232,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 33,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -266,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.744.610.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.127.911.2
– Net Position:-232,604250,628-18,024
– Gross Longs:295,676670,777151,100
– Gross Shorts:528,280420,149169,124
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.195.994.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.61.16.3

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 103,254 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.952.58.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.365.97.1
– Net Position:103,254-110,9527,698
– Gross Longs:187,869431,22766,010
– Gross Shorts:84,615542,17958,312
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.975.413.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.6-9.0-20.0

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,700 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.038.03.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.363.13.2
– Net Position:51,700-52,424724
– Gross Longs:75,33079,6907,361
– Gross Shorts:23,630132,1146,637
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.423.823.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.4-1.3-14.1

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -191,232 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,944 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,288 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.960.57.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.732.18.9
– Net Position:-191,232202,950-11,718
– Gross Longs:92,361432,41851,829
– Gross Shorts:283,593229,46863,547
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.076.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.120.117.2

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,926 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.648.25.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.041.15.1
– Net Position:-38,92637,2891,637
– Gross Longs:107,981252,66028,265
– Gross Shorts:146,907215,37126,628
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.019.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.16.7-2.7

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -66,820 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,453 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.652.89.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.140.57.5
– Net Position:-66,82056,23810,582
– Gross Longs:80,930242,67444,952
– Gross Shorts:147,750186,43634,370
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.03.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.824.7-30.8

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 65,999 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.634.710.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.054.611.9
– Net Position:65,999-60,465-5,534
– Gross Longs:114,745105,81130,732
– Gross Shorts:48,746166,27636,266
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.148.860.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:46.6-46.2-28.5

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.433.88.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.544.010.2
– Net Position:29,286-24,985-4,301
– Gross Longs:94,03782,65820,760
– Gross Shorts:64,751107,64325,061
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.747.664.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:45.0-49.77.5

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 102,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.730.36.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.171.82.8
– Net Position:102,305-112,88110,576
– Gross Longs:129,75082,40718,183
– Gross Shorts:27,445195,2887,607
– Long to Short Ratio:4.7 to 10.4 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.713.880.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:68.4-69.368.5

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 41,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.931.06.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.352.33.9
– Net Position:41,188-46,8715,683
– Gross Longs:81,55268,54414,358
– Gross Shorts:40,364115,4158,675
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.045.060.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.625.630.3

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.036.87.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.925.98.8
– Net Position:-36,98140,756-3,775
– Gross Longs:123,166137,34028,974
– Gross Shorts:160,14796,58432,749
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.857.049.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.7-9.916.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: Peso, DowJones, Soybeans & Yen lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 27th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso


The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 96.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 7.4 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 93,814 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,181 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


DowJones Mini


The DowJones Mini speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is now at a 89.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 1.3 this week. The speculator position registered 18,188 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 1,460 contracts in speculator bets.


British Pound


The British Pound speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The British Pound speculator level resides at a 87.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 10.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 46,358 net contracts this week with a small edge higher by 46 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 85.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 68.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 102,305 net contracts this week with a rise of 7,212 contracts in the speculator bets.


Steel


The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 85.1 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.4 this week.

The speculator position was -2,935 net contracts this week with a loss of -234 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Soybeans


The Soybeans speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -191,232 net contracts this week with a drop of -30,944 contracts in the speculator bets.


Japanese Yen


The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -54.7 this week. The speculator position was -132,705 net contracts this week with a decline of -11,927 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Soybean Oil


The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Oil speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -38,926 net contracts this week with a decrease by -4,985 contracts in the speculator bets.


Soybean Meal


The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.8 this week. The speculator position was -66,820 net contracts this week with a drop of -21,367 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Corn


Finally, the Corn speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 4.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.6 this week. The speculator position was -232,604 net contracts this week with a boost by 33,463 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculators push New Zealand Dollar bets to 51-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro, Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (15,178 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (4,619 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (3,219 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-9,242 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-4,449 contracts), the British Pound (-4,160 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,909 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-2,899 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-2,826 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-456 contracts) and Bitcoin (-177 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators push New Zealand Dollar bets to highest in just about a year

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the recent increase in the speculator’s positioning for the New Zealand Dollar. The large speculative New Zealand Dollar (NZD) currency positions gained this week by over +3,000 net contracts and have now climbed for six consecutive weeks. The NZD bets have also risen in nine out of the past twelve weeks, going from a total net position of -16,450 contracts on December 5th to a total of +6,626 contracts this week.

This improvement has taken the NZD to it’s most bullish level in the past fifty-one weeks, dating back to February 28th of 2023.

Helping the NZD speculator sentiment is the possibility that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may increase the bank’s interest rate at the next policy meeting. The  RBNZ is on schedule to hold its next meeting on February 27th with the official cash rate residing at 5.5 percent. Investment services such as ANZ Bank and TD Bank are anticipating the RBNZ to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points because of high inflation. The New Zealand consumer price index (most recently at 4.7 percent for December) continues to be higher than the bank’s target range of between 1-3 percent annually. However, weak economic growth that unexpectedly contracted by -0.60 percent (annual) in the third quarter of 2023 may help to persuade the RBNZ to hold the rate steady.

The NZD exchange rate versus the US Dollar has been on the rise recently with a weekly close just below 0.6200 level. The NZDUSD hit a multi-year low of 0.5558 in October of 2022 and more recently hit a low of 0.5809 in October of 2023. Since then, the currency pair has been able to rise and break through the 0.6000 major resistance and bounce off the 200-day moving average. The currency has ridden an eight-day win-streak to rise into this week’s close near 0.6200.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard


Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (97 percent) and the British Pound (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (73 percent), Canadian Dollar (58 percent) and the Brazilian Real (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (6 percent) and the Australian Dollar (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (21 percent) and the Swiss Franc (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (21.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (22.0 percent)
EuroFX (49.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (42.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (87.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (90.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (6.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (12.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (58.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (54.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (13.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (16.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (72.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (64.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (97.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (100.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (55.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (59.6 percent)
Bitcoin (34.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (37.5 percent)


New Zealand Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (22 percent) and the British Pound (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (5 percent) and the Mexican Peso (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-43 percent), the EuroFX (-22 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-2.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-0.8 percent)
EuroFX (-21.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-28.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (24.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-43.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-36.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-15.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-45.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-33.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (21.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (6.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-11.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-19.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-7.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (4.5 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -456 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,002 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.518.813.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.429.27.8
– Net Position:1,546-3,1261,580
– Gross Longs:18,7325,6253,916
– Gross Shorts:17,1868,7512,336
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.178.629.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.5-1.626.5

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 68,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.557.610.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.170.07.8
– Net Position:68,016-89,45121,435
– Gross Longs:213,194416,18377,957
– Gross Shorts:145,178505,63456,522
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.355.713.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.725.2-26.4

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.036.615.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.761.213.7
– Net Position:46,312-49,0062,694
– Gross Longs:87,60272,90130,014
– Gross Shorts:41,290121,90727,320
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.918.263.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.8-14.61.1

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -120,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,242 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.665.213.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.224.015.3
– Net Position:-120,778125,854-5,076
– Gross Longs:53,862199,06141,618
– Gross Shorts:174,64073,20746,694
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.7 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.394.966.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-43.449.6-21.5

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,909 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,014 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.762.415.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.229.931.6
– Net Position:-9,92319,476-9,553
– Gross Longs:13,03637,4559,413
– Gross Shorts:22,95917,97918,966
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.1 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.666.833.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.840.6-51.9

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,482 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.555.918.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.155.118.8
– Net Position:-8631,345-482
– Gross Longs:37,10888,20529,192
– Gross Shorts:37,97186,86029,674
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.452.321.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.52.0-21.4

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -81,875 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,899 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.964.09.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:63.719.014.6
– Net Position:-81,87592,611-10,736
– Gross Longs:49,100131,69419,375
– Gross Shorts:130,97539,08330,111
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 13.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.886.927.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-45.453.9-55.3

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.235.011.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.154.18.3
– Net Position:6,626-7,7991,173
– Gross Longs:19,75814,3414,580
– Gross Shorts:13,13222,1403,407
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.726.969.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.9-17.3-10.3

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 95,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.640.13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.979.91.1
– Net Position:95,995-101,3305,335
– Gross Longs:141,528102,0968,061
– Gross Shorts:45,533203,4262,726
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.5 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.32.245.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.6-4.3-1.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 16,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.738.85.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.370.51.9
– Net Position:16,522-18,4531,931
– Gross Longs:32,45722,6193,031
– Gross Shorts:15,93541,0721,100
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.6 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.943.052.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.111.7-6.6

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:76.97.36.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:85.12.63.2
– Net Position:-2,0981,202896
– Gross Longs:19,6241,8621,724
– Gross Shorts:21,722660828
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 12.8 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.895.333.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.210.81.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Copper, Silver & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper, Silver & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (16,755 contracts) with Silver (9,952 contracts), Gold (9,094 contracts), Platinum (6,557 contracts) and Palladium (1,058 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Steel with a total change of -518 contracts on the week.


Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (86 percent) and Silver (54 percent) were the leaders for the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent) and Copper (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are both in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (39.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (35.6 percent)
Silver (53.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (38.4 percent)
Copper (19.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (3.0 percent)
Platinum (38.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (22.0 percent)
Palladium (6.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (86.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.0 percent)


Copper & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals markets had negative six-week trends. Copper (-3 percent) and Steel (-5 percent) have the least negative six weeks trends for metals currently.

Platinum (-38 percent) and Gold (-22 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-21.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-34.4 percent)
Silver (-6.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (-30.7 percent)
Copper (-2.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-40.6 percent)
Platinum (-38.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-68.6 percent)
Palladium (-18.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-32.3 percent)
Steel (-4.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-12.0 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 140,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 131,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.826.110.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.465.35.6
– Net Position:140,262-159,41119,149
– Gross Longs:211,034106,41941,846
– Gross Shorts:70,772265,83022,697
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.760.335.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.823.8-31.9

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.331.020.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.056.910.1
– Net Position:22,377-37,94515,568
– Gross Longs:57,58245,50730,394
– Gross Shorts:35,20583,45214,826
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.645.953.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.17.3-10.2

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -15,942 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 16,755 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.839.17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.732.17.2
– Net Position:-15,94216,208-266
– Gross Longs:79,94189,88716,243
– Gross Shorts:95,88373,67916,509
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.483.916.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.76.4-27.8

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.822.310.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.138.83.7
– Net Position:8,495-14,4715,976
– Gross Longs:52,50519,6269,191
– Gross Shorts:44,01034,0973,215
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.6 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.660.148.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-38.131.515.1

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,058 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,511 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.156.07.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:68.45.37.4
– Net Position:-12,45312,557-104
– Gross Longs:4,46513,8581,733
– Gross Shorts:16,9181,3011,837
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 110.7 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.497.135.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.018.7-10.3

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -518 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.381.31.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.971.51.1
– Net Position:-2,7012,499202
– Gross Longs:3,13420,682471
– Gross Shorts:5,83518,183269
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.014.154.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.74.8-3.7

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.