COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 3

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Speculator Extremes: Lean Hogs, Brazil Real & EAFE lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 16th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Lean Hogs speculator level sits currently at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 17 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 95,098 net contracts this week with an increase by 3,514 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The BRL speculator level is now at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 31 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 62,222 net contracts this week with a weekly boost by 6,135 contracts in speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings with the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level residing at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an increase by 5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 9,549 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,034 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Gold

The Gold speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Gold speculator level is at a 81 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled an advance by 11 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 266,410 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,670 contracts in the speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Silver speculator level sits at a 79 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an edge higher by 1 percentage point this week.

The speculator position was 51,538 net contracts this week with a dip by -2,399 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the SOFR 1-Month speculator level at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a large drop by -64 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -297,794 net contracts this week with a decline of -88,017 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position also comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The USD Index speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -13 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -12,894 net contracts this week with a decrease of -7,336 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The VIX speculator level resides at just a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -101,689 net contracts this week with a change of 6,121 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -16 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 98,709 net contracts this week with a boost by 16,865 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Next, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -7 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -1,403,470 net contracts this week with a decline of -28,509 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News

21 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (4,670 contracts) with Copper (3,107 contracts) and Platinum (847 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-2,399 contracts), Palladium (-270 contracts) and with Steel (-28 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Silver leads Metals Price Changes this week

Silver was the leader in this week’s metals market’s price performance changes. Silver was up by 1.8% over the last 5 days and has been higher by 12.28% over the past 30 days, while also surging by 31.72% over the past 90 days.

Gold comes in next with a gain of 1.09% on the week. Gold has risen by 8.31% in the past 30 days and is up by 13.74% over the past 90 days. Platinum also rose modestly this week with a 0.45% gain. Platinum has seen its price shoot up by 5.44% in the past 30 days and by a whopping 42.27% in the past 90 days.

Copper dipped by -0.28% this week. Copper has been up by approximately 4% in the past 30 days, but over the past 90 days copper has fallen by -1.24%. Steel dropped this week by -3.59%. However, Steel has been higher by over 3% in the past 30 days and is up by approximately 19% in the past 90 days.

Palladium came in as the biggest loser this week with a -5.39% decline. Palladium, however, has been higher by over 2% in the past 30 days and has increased by approximately 20% over the past 90 days.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (81 percent) and Silver (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (74 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Platinum (49 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (81.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (79.6 percent)
Silver (79.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (82.3 percent)
Copper (61.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (58.6 percent)
Platinum (49.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (46.9 percent)
Palladium (74.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.4 percent)
Steel (59.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (60.0 percent)

Gold & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (11 percent) and Copper (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-13 percent) and Platinum (-4 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (11.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.5 percent)
Silver (1.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-7.3 percent)
Copper (9.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-9.4 percent)
Platinum (-3.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-15.6 percent)
Palladium (-12.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-14.2 percent)
Steel (0.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-9.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 266,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 261,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.3	15.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	73.7	4.8
– Net Position:	266,410	-302,371	35,961
– Gross Longs:	326,778	77,867	60,872
– Gross Shorts:	60,368	380,238	24,911
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.4	13.5	94.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-11.6	9.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 51,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,937 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	26.5	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	70.3	7.7
– Net Position:	51,538	-71,389	19,851
– Gross Longs:	71,623	43,118	32,407
– Gross Shorts:	20,085	114,507	12,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	18.1	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	1.0	-8.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 30,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	31.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	49.1	4.3
– Net Position:	30,348	-38,424	8,076
– Gross Longs:	69,370	69,990	17,621
– Gross Shorts:	39,022	108,414	9,545
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.5	37.3	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-4.9	-24.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	21.3	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	42.3	4.9
– Net Position:	15,203	-21,087	5,884
– Gross Longs:	54,061	21,326	10,757
– Gross Shorts:	38,858	42,413	4,873
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.0	52.1	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	4.9	-5.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	38.6	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.6	27.8	6.2
– Net Position:	-4,012	2,140	1,872
– Gross Longs:	8,024	7,660	3,113
– Gross Shorts:	12,036	5,520	1,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.4	13.6	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	11.0	8.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -84 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -28 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	73.1	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	73.4	1.3
– Net Position:	-84	-74	158
– Gross Longs:	4,491	15,641	442
– Gross Shorts:	4,575	15,715	284
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	40.4	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	0.2	-4.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

21 Sep

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led higher by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (167,521 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (117,989 contracts), the Fed Funds (87,943 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (38,673 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (8,102 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (4,470 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 1-Month (-88,017 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-28,509 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,274 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Fed Funds leads Bonds Price Changes

Leading the bond market’s price performance this week was the Fed Funds, with a modest gain of 0.29%. The Fed Funds have been up by 0.28% over the past 30 days, and are higher by 1.34% over the past 90 days.

Next up, we have the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which rose by 0.25% followed by the 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which was a tick higher by 0.09%. Both of these markets are up by over 1% in the last 90 days, respectively.

The 2-Year Bonds were virtually unchanged, with a 0.04% gain on the week. The 2-year bond has been higher by 0.75% over the past 90 days.

The 5-Year Bonds were slightly lower, with a -0.15% decline on the week. However, the 5-Year Bonds have increased by over 2% in the past 90 days. The 10-Year Bonds were lower by -0.39%. The 10-Year Bonds are up by 1% over the past 30 days, and higher by over 3% in the past 90 days.

Finally, the U.S. Treasury Bond was lower by -1.03% over the past week. However, the U.S. Treasury Bond has been higher by 1.54% in the past 30 days, and has advanced by 3.22% in the past 90 days.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (72 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (55 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (51 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the SOFR 1-Month (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (7 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (42.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (29.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (10.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (5.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (36.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (31.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (38.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (36.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (50.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (49.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (72.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (77.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (0.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (20.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (55.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (46.5 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (25 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (17 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-64 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (16.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-36.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (-6.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-14.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-1.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (15.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (4.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (25.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (5.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (4.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-11.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-64.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-14.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (17.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (12.0 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -119,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 87,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -207,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	63.6	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	59.4	1.4
– Net Position:	-119,513	107,071	12,442
– Gross Longs:	359,323	1,606,503	47,927
– Gross Shorts:	478,836	1,499,432	35,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.9	54.6	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-17.8	3.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -98,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 167,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -266,004 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	55.4	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	54.7	0.3
– Net Position:	-98,483	97,806	677
– Gross Longs:	1,999,586	7,670,131	35,703
– Gross Shorts:	2,098,069	7,572,325	35,026
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	44.6	78.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.7	-18.9	11.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -297,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -88,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -209,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	71.3	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	53.4	0.0
– Net Position:	-297,794	297,793	1
– Gross Longs:	193,227	1,182,295	273
– Gross Shorts:	491,021	884,502	272
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-64.0	64.2	-2.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,403,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -28,509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,374,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	78.5	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	51.0	2.3
– Net Position:	-1,403,470	1,248,246	155,224
– Gross Longs:	569,143	3,564,142	258,784
– Gross Shorts:	1,972,613	2,315,896	103,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.0	90.8	78.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	5.9	6.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,436,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 117,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,554,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	83.8	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.8	50.7	3.8
– Net Position:	-2,436,774	2,234,545	202,229
– Gross Longs:	519,377	5,660,026	458,365
– Gross Shorts:	2,956,151	3,425,481	256,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.9	86.8	87.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-4.6	-2.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -819,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 38,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -857,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	75.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	63.4	6.0
– Net Position:	-819,299	659,945	159,354
– Gross Longs:	728,767	4,088,798	481,431
– Gross Shorts:	1,548,066	3,428,853	322,077
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	53.5	93.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-25.8	14.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -266,822 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -274,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	75.3	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	61.3	12.4
– Net Position:	-266,822	332,797	-65,975
– Gross Longs:	345,310	1,791,967	228,464
– Gross Shorts:	612,132	1,459,170	294,439
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	63.4	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.0	-20.8	-14.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -94,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	77.0	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	79.2	6.7
– Net Position:	-94,138	-41,776	135,914
– Gross Longs:	151,579	1,412,245	258,901
– Gross Shorts:	245,717	1,454,021	122,987
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	26.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-12.6	22.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -263,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -248,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	82.3	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	69.2	9.2
– Net Position:	-263,219	262,589	630
– Gross Longs:	135,468	1,645,379	183,916
– Gross Shorts:	398,687	1,382,790	183,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	42.7	15.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.2	1.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

21 Sep

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by WTI Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (16,865 contracts) with Gasoline (2,538 contracts), Brent Oil (1,496 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (30 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-16,397 contracts) and with Heating Oil (-474 contracts) also seeing slightly lower bets on the week.

Natural Gas leads Energy Price Changes

The energy markets price changes were mixed this week. Natural Gas was the highest mover with a muted 0.37% gain over the past 5 days. Natural Gas has been down -7.12% over the past 30 days while dropping a sharp -31.52% over the past 90 days.

Next up, Heating Oil was higher by 0.25% this week. Heating Oil is up 2.65% over the past 30 days while seeing a gain of 10.57% over the past 90 days.

WTI Crude Oil edged higher this week by 0.22% and has been up 8.73% over the past 90 days.

Brent Crude Oil was modestly lower by -0.38% over the past week. Brent Crude Oil has been up by approximately 1.5% in the past 30 days and is higher by 9% in the past 90 days.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index was the next lowest with a -0.43% return on the week while Gasoline saw the highest decline on the week with a -0.81% dip. Gasoline has been higher by 3.5% over the past 30 days and is up by approximately 6% over the past 90 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Natural Gas

On the downside, WTI Crude (6.3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is the only market currently in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (6.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (45.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (43.8 percent)
Natural Gas (53.7 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (66.3 percent)
Gasoline (44.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (40.9 percent)
Heating Oil (68.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (69.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (44.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (44.7 percent)

Gasoline tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gasoline (13.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. Heating Oil (0.9 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude (-16.1 percent), Natural Gas (-13.2 percent) and the Bloomberg Index (-9.8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-16.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-27.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-3.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-5.8 percent)
Natural Gas (-13.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.8 percent)
Gasoline (13.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-1.7 percent)
Heating Oil (0.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-6.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-9.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-10.4 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 98,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,844 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	41.8	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	47.7	2.5
– Net Position:	98,709	-114,749	16,040
– Gross Longs:	278,276	820,579	64,779
– Gross Shorts:	179,567	935,328	48,739
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.3	95.5	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.1	19.9	-26.2

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,699 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	43.2	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	32.0	3.3
– Net Position:	-24,699	23,024	1,675
– Gross Longs:	40,627	88,732	8,347
– Gross Shorts:	65,326	65,708	6,672
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.9	54.4	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	3.5	3.3

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -110,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	31.8	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	25.4	2.8
– Net Position:	-110,944	104,419	6,525
– Gross Longs:	283,441	520,328	52,273
– Gross Shorts:	394,385	415,909	45,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	54.8	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	22.3	-29.1

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	49.5	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	64.3	4.3
– Net Position:	43,659	-54,863	11,204
– Gross Longs:	86,260	183,418	27,051
– Gross Shorts:	42,601	238,281	15,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	49.3	86.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-17.7	31.1

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	44.5	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	56.1	7.4
– Net Position:	18,983	-45,749	26,766
– Gross Longs:	56,751	176,526	56,062
– Gross Shorts:	37,768	222,275	29,296
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	23.0	94.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-8.2	22.2

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	73.2	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	67.1	3.7
– Net Position:	-13,749	13,449	300
– Gross Longs:	33,754	162,851	8,485
– Gross Shorts:	47,503	149,402	8,185
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	54.8	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	9.5	1.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

21 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led higher by Sugar & Corn

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall decisively higher this week as ten out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (33,266 contracts) with Corn (18,075 contracts), Soybean Oil (13,621 contracts), Soybeans (12,864 contracts), Wheat (9,980 contracts), Cotton (8,685 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,351 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,514 contracts), Coffee (1,659 contracts) and Cocoa (1,391 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets was Live Cattle with a drop by -4,952 contracts on the week.

Live Cattle leads Softs Price Changes this week

Soft commodities market changes this week were overall lower. Live Cattle was the price change leader over the past 5 days with a gain of 1.05%. Live Cattle is up by almost 2% over the last 30 days and is higher by 12.43% over the past 90 days.

Wheat comes in second with a 0.36% gain on the week. However, Wheat has been down by -2.89% over the past 30 days and lower by -4.21% over the past 90 days. Next up, Cocoa was minimally higher by 0.25% on the week. Cocoa has been cruising higher by 20% over the past 30 days and is up by 21.46% over the past 90 days.

Cotton was down by -0.43% this week followed by Corn which was lower by -1.01% while Soybeans fell by -1.48% and Soybean Meal was down by -1.99%. Sugar dipped by -2.17% this week followed by Lean Hogs which saw a decline by -2.19% and Soybean Oil dropped by -3.09%.

Coffee came in as the biggest loser on the week with a -7.03% decline. However, Coffee has been higher by 26.89% over the past 30 days and is up by approximately 5% over the past 90 days.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (99 percent) and Live Cattle (78 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (68 percent), Coffee (65 percent) and Soybeans (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (8 percent), Cotton (12 percent), Soybean Meal (16 percent) and the Cocoa (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (28.8 percent)
Sugar (7.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (64.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (63.2 percent)
Soybeans (55.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (52.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (68.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (60.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (16.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.3 percent)
Live Cattle (78.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (83.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (99.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (96.5 percent)
Cotton (11.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.6 percent)
Cocoa (18.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (17.0 percent)
Wheat (37.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (29.1 percent)

Lean Hogs & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (17 percent) and Soybeans (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (14 percent), Coffee (11 percent) and Corn (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-7 percent), Live Cattle (-5 percent) and Cotton (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.8 percent)
Sugar (-7.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.5 percent)
Coffee (10.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.4 percent)
Soybeans (15.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (-15.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-29.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (16.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.1 percent)
Cotton (-4.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.9 percent)
Cocoa (-1.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.0 percent)
Wheat (5.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,075 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	44.4	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	40.0	10.4
– Net Position:	-36,169	68,373	-32,204
– Gross Longs:	346,750	679,858	126,706
– Gross Shorts:	382,919	611,485	158,910
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	67.5	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-12.1	9.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of -106,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 33,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -139,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	56.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	43.8	8.8
– Net Position:	-106,344	112,398	-6,054
– Gross Longs:	175,246	514,370	75,162
– Gross Shorts:	281,590	401,972	81,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.9	94.2	12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	4.8	9.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,517 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	37.3	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	62.1	3.5
– Net Position:	40,176	-43,585	3,409
– Gross Longs:	63,063	65,689	9,579
– Gross Shorts:	22,887	109,274	6,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	35.4	75.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-13.1	48.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	56.6	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	57.5	7.4
– Net Position:	21,187	-8,293	-12,894
– Gross Longs:	167,351	507,053	53,482
– Gross Shorts:	146,164	515,346	66,376
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	41.8	78.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-17.1	7.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	45.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	54.2	4.4
– Net Position:	47,501	-55,005	7,504
– Gross Longs:	133,827	292,585	35,467
– Gross Shorts:	86,326	347,590	27,963
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.1	33.6	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	15.8	-17.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	51.2	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	46.5	5.3
– Net Position:	-44,608	29,001	15,607
– Gross Longs:	118,194	317,392	48,569
– Gross Shorts:	162,802	288,391	32,962
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.0	86.5	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-13.4	-11.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 101,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.2	30.4	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	51.8	13.3
– Net Position:	101,726	-83,348	-18,378
– Gross Longs:	180,326	118,626	33,510
– Gross Shorts:	78,600	201,974	51,888
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	20.8	32.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	0.5	14.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 95,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	25.2	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	48.4	7.7
– Net Position:	95,098	-88,856	-6,242
– Gross Longs:	184,169	96,648	23,341
– Gross Shorts:	89,071	185,504	29,583
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.1	0.3	39.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	-16.6	-8.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -42,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	49.9	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	33.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-42,649	42,601	48
– Gross Longs:	70,118	129,115	12,948
– Gross Shorts:	112,767	86,514	12,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	89.1	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	3.0	14.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	47.0	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	58.6	8.2
– Net Position:	8,337	-11,290	2,953
– Gross Longs:	24,775	45,550	10,941
– Gross Shorts:	16,438	56,840	7,988
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.5	82.4	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	2.1	-3.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -72,159 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,139 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	36.5	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.5	20.6	6.9
– Net Position:	-72,159	73,100	-941
– Gross Longs:	127,443	167,332	30,903
– Gross Shorts:	199,602	94,232	31,844
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	64.4	48.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-7.0	8.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

14 Sep

Large Speculators push Mexican Peso Bets to a 65-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (22,918 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (18,385 contracts), the EuroFX (6,085 contracts), the Australian Dollar (3,452 contracts), the Mexican Peso (719 contracts), Bitcoin (434 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (59 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Swiss Franc (-2,951 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,269 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-537 contracts) and with the British Pound (-465 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Large Speculators push Mexican Peso Bets to a 65-week high

Highlighting the currency speculator positions this week is the increasingly bullish Mexican Peso sentiment. Speculators boosted their bullish bets for the Mexican Peso this week for a fourth consecutive week and for the seventh time out of the past eight weeks. The Peso position has now added +23,610 net contracts over these past eight weeks and this bullish momentum has brought the current net standing to a total of +73,732 net bullish contracts.

This marks the highest level for the Mexican Peso contracts in the past 65 weeks, dating back to June 11th of 2024 when the net position was last over +100,000 contracts. The Peso positioning was strong throughout the first half of 2024 with 15 consecutive weeks of contracts over the +100,000 contract level. Peso bets then started to cool off mid-2024 and steadily decreased to an overall negative net position on January 21st of 2025. Since then, contracts have rebounded, improved and increased to this week’s 65-week high.

Despite the increased bullishness for the Peso, the strength score is still just modestly high at 66% of its three-year range. This shows that if bullish momentum continues, there is plenty of room to go before a bullish extreme is reached.

The Mexican Peso position in the exchange markets versus the US dollar has been on an uptrend since the beginning of the year. The Peso has risen through its 200-week moving average and is currently up 13.10% against the US Dollar so far.

Bitcoin leads Price Performance for the Week

The currency market price performance this week was led by Bitcoin, which rose by 4.41% for the past 5 days. Bitcoin is now up by 13% over the last 90 days.

Next was the Australian Dollar, which increased by 1.50% this week. The Australian Dollar is up by 3% over the last 30 days and is higher by 3.74% over the last 90 days. The Mexican Peso came in next with a 1.47% gain and the Peso has risen by 5.57% over the past 90 days.

The New Zealand Dollar advanced by 1.16% over the last five days. The Brazilian Real saw a gain of 0.86% while the Real is now up by approximately 6% in the last 90 days.

The British Pound Sterling came in next with a 0.45% rise, followed by the Swiss Franc, which was higher by 0.26%. The Euro saw prices edge up by just 0.16% and the Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged with a 0.05% advance.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged, down by -0.07%, while the Japanese Yen was just a tick lower with a -0.09% decline.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (90 percent) and the EuroFX (77 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (76 percent), Mexican Peso (66 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (4 percent) and the British Pound (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (3.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.0 percent)
EuroFX (76.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (11.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (75.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (70.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (42.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (48.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (43.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (17.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (54.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (57.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (66.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (66.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (90.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (71.5 percent)
Bitcoin (42.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.6 percent)

Brazilian Real & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (26 percent) and Bitcoin (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (9 percent) was the next highest positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-11 percent), Swiss Franc (-10 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-3.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.9 percent)
EuroFX (0.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-2.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-11.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-17.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-9.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (0.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-16.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-0.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-7.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-3.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (26.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (5.9 percent)
Bitcoin (11.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (20.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.5	34.9	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.1	17.5	9.7
– Net Position:	-5,558	6,642	-1,084
– Gross Longs:	19,192	13,288	2,604
– Gross Shorts:	24,750	6,646	3,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.7	99.8	15.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	6.4	-18.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 125,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 20.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	53.4	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	73.9	5.3
– Net Position:	125,677	-179,647	53,970
– Gross Longs:	258,049	468,861	100,417
– Gross Shorts:	132,372	648,508	46,447
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	20.0	88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-1.3	3.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,140 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	57.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	47.9	9.2
– Net Position:	-33,605	29,784	3,821
– Gross Longs:	74,849	184,370	33,639
– Gross Shorts:	108,454	154,586	29,818
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	78.9	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	7.1	10.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 91,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 18,385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	38.4	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	62.9	8.5
– Net Position:	91,643	-100,442	8,799
– Gross Longs:	180,724	157,854	43,537
– Gross Shorts:	89,081	258,296	34,738
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.9	25.6	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-2.0	12.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,839 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,951 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	74.1	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	44.8	18.4
– Net Position:	-28,839	30,815	-1,976
– Gross Longs:	6,989	77,874	17,332
– Gross Shorts:	35,828	47,059	19,308
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	49.7	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	4.1	9.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -108,917 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 59 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	77.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.2	31.1	12.6
– Net Position:	-108,917	115,041	-6,124
– Gross Longs:	18,704	192,465	25,216
– Gross Shorts:	127,621	77,424	31,340
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	60.9	26.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	16.6	-15.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -79,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	67.8	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.5	32.6	9.2
– Net Position:	-79,231	73,221	6,010
– Gross Longs:	32,200	141,051	25,129
– Gross Shorts:	111,431	67,830	19,119
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.1	73.6	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	-1.1	7.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -8,743 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	53.2	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	38.0	8.0
– Net Position:	-8,743	10,841	-2,098
– Gross Longs:	15,479	38,065	3,637
– Gross Shorts:	24,222	27,224	5,735
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.4	46.3	26.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	10.9	-38.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 73,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,013 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	41.7	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	78.1	1.5
– Net Position:	73,732	-77,535	3,803
– Gross Longs:	107,503	89,064	7,051
– Gross Shorts:	33,771	166,599	3,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	34.4	43.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-9.0	2.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 56,087 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 22,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,169 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.9	32.0	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	87.9	0.8
– Net Position:	56,087	-60,098	4,011
– Gross Longs:	67,641	34,405	4,856
– Gross Shorts:	11,554	94,503	845
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	5.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.1	8.4	43.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.1	-26.5	5.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -902 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	85.7	4.0	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.4	3.8	3.2
– Net Position:	-468	56	412
– Gross Longs:	23,075	1,081	1,263
– Gross Shorts:	23,543	1,025	851
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	57.9	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-10.6	-3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

13 Sep

Speculator Extremes: MSCI EAFE-Mini & Lean Hogs lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 9th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position continues to come in as the most bullish extreme standing again this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is currently at a 99 percent (just below the maximum 100%) score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a gain of 6 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 13,583 net contracts this week with a small rise of 891 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was an increase by 13 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 91,584 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 8,244 contracts in speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings with the BRL speculator level residing at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an increase by 26 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was 56,087 net contracts this week with a rise of 22,918 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 83 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score saw no change this week. The overall speculator position was 106,678 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,557 contracts in the speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Silver speculator level sits at a 82 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -7 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 53,937 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,986 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the VIX speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -34 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -107,810 net contracts this week with a dip of -858 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the Sugar speculator level at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -18 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -139,610 net contracts this week with a sharp drop of -53,805 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing of the week. The WTI Crude speculator level resides at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -28 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 81,844 net contracts this week with a reduction by -20,584 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the USD Index speculator level at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -4 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -5,558 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -537 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Next, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -2,554,763 net contracts this week with a jump by 127,224 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

13 Sep

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 5-Year & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (127,224 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (59,952 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (59,011 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (10,386 contracts) and the Fed Funds (8,418 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-78,878 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-72,136 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-21,340 contracts), and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,274 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Treasury Bond leads Price Performance

The bond market price performance this week was led by the long US Treasury Bond with a gain of 1.56% on the week. The US Treasury Bond has been up by 3.50% over the last 30 days and higher by 3.10% over the last 90 days.

The Fed Funds increased by 0.29% for the week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate was up by a quarter of a percent, followed by the 10-Year Note, which rose by 0.23% on the week. The 10-year is higher over 2% in the last 30 days, and for the last 90 days, the 10-year has risen by 2.62%.

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate and the 2-Year Bond were virtually unchanged, as well as the 5-Year Bond, which saw a minuscule dip of -0.05%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (6 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (9 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (29.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (27.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (9.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (31.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (30.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (35.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (49.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (56.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (72.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (77.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (16.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (34.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (46.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (43.5 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (4 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-15 percent), the SOFR 1-Month (-15 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-36.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-42.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-14.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-4.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (-1.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-9.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (4.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-13.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (15.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (4.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (2.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-11.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-15.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (6.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (12.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (8.0 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -207,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -215,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	69.8	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	60.7	1.8
– Net Position:	-207,456	205,810	1,646
– Gross Longs:	241,031	1,579,710	42,737
– Gross Shorts:	448,487	1,373,900	41,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	70.6	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.0	40.7	-29.6

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -266,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 59,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -325,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	55.4	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	53.5	0.2
– Net Position:	-266,004	255,762	10,242
– Gross Longs:	1,927,628	7,452,204	41,362
– Gross Shorts:	2,193,632	7,196,442	31,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	52.8	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-13.2	11.7

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -209,777 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -72,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -137,641 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	68.3	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	54.9	0.0
– Net Position:	-209,777	209,228	549
– Gross Longs:	213,010	1,065,129	958
– Gross Shorts:	422,787	855,901	409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.8	82.9	68.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	15.7	-5.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,374,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -78,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,296,083 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	78.8	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	51.8	2.3
– Net Position:	-1,374,961	1,225,975	148,986
– Gross Longs:	549,072	3,577,509	251,198
– Gross Shorts:	1,924,033	2,351,534	102,212
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	88.4	76.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	19.4	-3.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,554,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 127,224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,681,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	84.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	50.1	3.6
– Net Position:	-2,554,763	2,315,862	238,901
– Gross Longs:	455,152	5,716,348	486,457
– Gross Shorts:	3,009,915	3,400,486	247,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.7	91.0	97.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-1.7	19.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -857,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -868,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	77.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	63.8	6.3
– Net Position:	-857,972	719,102	138,870
– Gross Longs:	627,289	4,079,093	471,296
– Gross Shorts:	1,485,261	3,359,991	332,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	61.8	86.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-11.7	14.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -274,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 59,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -334,876 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	74.7	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	60.9	12.3
– Net Position:	-274,924	329,264	-54,340
– Gross Longs:	344,178	1,775,423	237,817
– Gross Shorts:	619,102	1,446,159	292,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	62.4	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-23.3	13.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -98,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,340 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	76.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	78.2	6.7
– Net Position:	-98,608	-32,796	131,404
– Gross Longs:	159,934	1,409,130	254,567
– Gross Shorts:	258,542	1,441,926	123,163
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.1	29.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-12.9	27.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -263,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -248,945 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	82.3	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	69.2	9.2
– Net Position:	-263,219	262,589	630
– Gross Longs:	135,468	1,645,379	183,916
– Gross Shorts:	398,687	1,382,790	183,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	42.7	15.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.2	1.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

13 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Gold Speculator Bets rise to 29-Week High

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (12,210 contracts) with Copper (1,583 contracts) and Palladium (306 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-2,642 contracts), Silver (-1,986 contracts) and Steel (-383 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold Bets rise to 29-Week High

Gold speculator bets were up for the third straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the last 11 weeks. Gold speculator bets have now risen by almost +50,000 contracts just in the last two weeks alone.

This boost in speculator bets has pushed the current speculator net position to a total of +261,740 net contracts. This marks the highest level in 29 weeks, dating back to February 18th of 2025. The gold speculator position has now been above the +200,000 contract level for 11 consecutive weeks.

Palladium Leads the Metals Price Performance

The metals market’s performance this week was led by Palladium, which jumped by over 9%. Palladium has now been up by roughly 25% over the past 90 days.

Silver was up by 3% this week, and has now been up by 15% over the past 30 days, while racing higher by almost 30% in the past 90 days.

Copper came in third with a 2.51% gain on the week. Copper is the only metal that has been down over the last 90 days, with a -2.05% decrease.

Platinum rose this week by 1.59%, and has been up by a significant 40.25% over the past 90 days. Gold rose by 1.34% this week, and has been up by roughly 9% in the past 90 days.

Steel was the only metal to see a weekly decline. Steel dropped by -4.65%, although Steel has been up by roughly 7% in the past 30 days, and has been higher by 19.53% over the last 90 days.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (82 percent) and Gold (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (76 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Platinum (47 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (79.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (75.0 percent)
Silver (82.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (85.0 percent)
Copper (58.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (57.1 percent)
Platinum (46.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (53.5 percent)
Palladium (76.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (74.1 percent)
Steel (60.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (63.0 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-14 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (14.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-1.3 percent)
Silver (-7.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-6.3 percent)
Copper (-9.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (-13.2 percent)
Platinum (-15.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-9.2 percent)
Palladium (-14.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-13.1 percent)
Steel (-9.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 261,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 249,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.7	14.5	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	68.1	9.3
– Net Position:	261,740	-273,375	11,635
– Gross Longs:	324,875	73,850	58,990
– Gross Shorts:	63,135	347,225	47,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.6	23.9	12.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-5.2	-80.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 53,937 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.2	25.6	20.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	72.5	8.1
– Net Position:	53,937	-73,402	19,465
– Gross Longs:	72,450	40,163	32,191
– Gross Shorts:	18,513	113,565	12,726
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	15.6	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	6.9	-0.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 27,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	31.2	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	48.5	4.0
– Net Position:	27,241	-36,015	8,774
– Gross Longs:	64,293	65,052	17,170
– Gross Shorts:	37,052	101,067	8,396
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.6	39.4	70.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	0.9	54.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,998 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.0	21.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	43.0	5.1
– Net Position:	14,356	-20,210	5,854
– Gross Longs:	53,057	20,511	10,723
– Gross Shorts:	38,701	40,721	4,869
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	54.3	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	12.3	16.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,048 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.4	36.5	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.6	26.4	5.9
– Net Position:	-3,742	1,963	1,779
– Gross Longs:	8,453	7,113	2,931
– Gross Shorts:	12,195	5,150	1,152
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	12.2	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	11.1	14.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -56 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	74.4	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	74.9	1.5
– Net Position:	-56	-107	163
– Gross Longs:	4,453	16,054	477
– Gross Shorts:	4,509	16,161	314
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	40.2	56.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	9.8	-5.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

13 Sep

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Natural Gas & Brent Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Natural Gas & Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Natural Gas (8,229 contracts) with Brent Oil (2,447 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-20,584 contracts), Heating Oil (-10,789 contracts), the Bloomberg Index (-522 contracts) and Gasoline (-185 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Brent Crude Oil Leads Weekly Price Performance

Brent Oil led the energy markets in price gains this week with a 1.83% rise for the last five days. Brent Crude has been down by over -5% in the last 30 days, but is up by 18% over the past 90 days.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index was the next highest gainer with a 1.4% increase over the past five days. Heating Oil rose by 1.33% this week and has been up by almost 20% over the last 90 days.

WTI Crude Oil rose by 0.97%. WTI has been down by about -8% over the past 30 days, while also being higher by 17.58% over the past 90 days. Gasoline was the next highest mover with a 0.92% increase for the week.

Natural Gas was the only decliner on the week with a -3.25% decrease. Natural Gas has been down by approximately -8% over the past 30 days, and over the past 90 days, Natural Gas has been down by over -30%.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Natural Gas

On the downside, WTI Crude (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (7.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (43.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (40.3 percent)
Natural Gas (66.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (60.0 percent)
Gasoline (40.9 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (41.2 percent)
Heating Oil (69.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (83.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (44.7 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (47.0 percent)

Gasoline & Brent Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the energy markets have negative trend scores at the current time.

Gasoline (-1.7 percent) and Brent Oil (-5.8 percent) have the least negative scores while WTI Crude (-27.7 percent) and the Bloomberg Index (-10.4 percent) have the most negative scores in the latest trends data.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-27.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-19.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-5.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-16.8 percent)
Natural Gas (-6.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-19.3 percent)
Gasoline (-1.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (9.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-6.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (11.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-10.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-8.2 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 81,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,428 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	41.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	47.1	2.5
– Net Position:	81,844	-102,155	20,311
– Gross Longs:	274,256	818,832	69,296
– Gross Shorts:	192,412	920,987	48,985
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.7	27.7	-6.7

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.1	44.5	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	32.3	3.0
– Net Position:	-26,195	25,347	848
– Gross Longs:	37,678	92,625	7,193
– Gross Shorts:	63,873	67,278	6,345
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	58.0	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	5.3	7.0

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -94,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	30.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	25.7	2.8
– Net Position:	-94,547	83,316	11,231
– Gross Longs:	282,995	502,932	56,670
– Gross Shorts:	377,542	419,616	45,439
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	38.5	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	11.8	-16.3

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 41,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,306 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	48.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	64.1	4.6
– Net Position:	41,121	-52,405	11,284
– Gross Longs:	81,040	164,911	26,762
– Gross Shorts:	39,919	217,316	15,478
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	52.2	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-5.2	32.5

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 19,457 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	43.9	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	55.7	7.2
– Net Position:	19,457	-45,269	25,812
– Gross Longs:	56,751	168,677	53,529
– Gross Shorts:	37,294	213,946	27,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.1	23.5	91.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	5.6	-2.3

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,257 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.9	80.8	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	74.1	0.1
– Net Position:	-13,779	13,468	311
– Gross Longs:	33,670	161,484	425
– Gross Shorts:	47,449	148,016	114
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.7	54.9	64.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	10.3	0.8

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