COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Speculator Extremes: AUD, Soybean Meal & Copper lead Bullish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday May 19th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in tied at the top of this week’s extreme standings as the AUD speculator level resides at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an advance by 8 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 85,644 net contracts this week with an increase of 654 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position also comes in tied atop the extreme standings this week with the Soybean Meal speculator level at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a boost by 17 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 159,741 net contracts this week with an advance of 11,088 contracts in speculator bets.

Copper

The Copper speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Copper speculator level is currently at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a gain of 32 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 75,886 net contracts this week with a decrease of -423 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week with the Wheat speculator level at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a lift of 16 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was 263 net contracts this week with an addition of 14,684 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Cotton speculator level sits at a 94 percent score of its 3-year range and the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a lift of 19 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 92,470 net contracts this week with a retreat of -9,919 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The SOFR 3-Months speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -41 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -1,473,774 net contracts this week with a decline of -330,187 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cocoa speculator level is at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost of 6 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -15,488 net contracts this week with a fall of -2,507 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Natural Gas speculator level resides at a 9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -5 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -192,196 net contracts this week with a decrease of -15,890 contracts in the speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The GBP speculator level is at a 12 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -3 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -64,307 net contracts this week with a reduction of -21,248 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

Next, the New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The NZD speculator level is at a 18 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -5 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -40,613 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,463 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Opinions

24 May

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Metals Speculator Bets lower across the board

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Metals Speculator Bets lower across the board

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower positioning.

Leading the declines in speculator bets for the week was Gold (-11,789 contracts) with Platinum (-2,804 contracts) and Silver (-1,440 contracts), Palladium (-582 contracts), Copper (-423 contracts) and Steel (-350 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

The metals markets speculator positions continue to cool off after a roaring start to the year that had seen record high price levels almost across the board for the metals. Copper and Steel continue to have strong speculative positions as well as strong price trends. These two markets remain in extreme bullish strength levels (above 80%) currently (which shows their current levels across a range of the past three years) while the other precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, palladium) have seen their speculator bets come down as well as their price levels have come back down to earth in the second quarter.

Copper leads the Metals Market price performance.

Copper was the leading gainer for the Precious Metals price performance this week with a 2.38% gain. Steel came in next with a 0.65% uptick while Silver rounded out the gainers with a 0.62% rise.

On the downside, Gold was lower by less than a percent with a -0.80% decrease and was followed by Platinum which fell by -1.88%. Palladium was the biggest decliner over the past five days with a -3.34% drop.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

On the downside, Silver (28 percent) and Gold (36 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (36.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (41.1 percent)
Silver (28.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (30.8 percent)
Copper (99.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (55.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (62.8 percent)
Palladium (75.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (79.3 percent)
Steel (84.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (85.9 percent)

Copper & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (32 percent) and Silver (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (1.4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (1.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.5 percent)
Silver (2.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.7 percent)
Copper (31.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (32.3 percent)
Platinum (-0.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (11.0 percent)
Palladium (-7.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-5.7 percent)
Steel (-1.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (2.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 159,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -11,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,622 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.6	18.3	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	68.8	4.0
– Net Position:	159,833	-191,629	31,796
– Gross Longs:	211,018	69,520	47,082
– Gross Shorts:	51,185	261,149	15,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	59.4	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	0.9	-16.5

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,111 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	26.9	26.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	69.3	8.4
– Net Position:	24,671	-42,668	17,997
– Gross Longs:	34,591	27,108	26,423
– Gross Shorts:	9,920	69,776	8,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	69.0	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-6.0	13.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 75,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,309 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	32.4	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	65.5	3.4
– Net Position:	75,886	-85,499	9,613
– Gross Longs:	107,483	83,511	18,455
– Gross Shorts:	31,597	169,010	8,842
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.6	1.4	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.8	-27.9	-9.1

Platinum Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,712 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.6	29.3	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	66.2	5.3
– Net Position:	17,908	-23,112	5,204
– Gross Longs:	26,148	18,426	8,545
– Gross Shorts:	8,240	41,538	3,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.8	46.9	58.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	-0.2	2.4

Palladium Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,497 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,915 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.2	40.6	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.7	31.5	9.5
– Net Position:	-2,497	1,563	934
– Gross Longs:	6,252	7,007	2,578
– Gross Shorts:	8,749	5,444	1,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.4	27.2	52.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	7.3	-2.9

Steel Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,456 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	64.6	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.1	93.2	0.2
– Net Position:	11,106	-11,521	415
– Gross Longs:	12,746	26,059	498
– Gross Shorts:	1,640	37,580	83
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	6.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.2	15.6	90.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	0.9	3.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

24 May

COT Bonds Charts: Speculators up 2-Year and 5-Year Bonds bets this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

All the US bond markets continue to have overall negative speculator net positions at the moment, illustrating the negative views on the outlook for bond market prices. Speculators betting against bond market prices implies a viewpoint that interest rates will go higher (as prices fall, the interest rates of that market increases and vice versa).

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (41,775 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (11,629 contracts) and the SOFR 1-Month (11,594 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-330,187 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-66,885 contracts), the Fed Funds (-54,824 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-25,053 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-15,470 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-5,820 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The long U.S. Treasury Bond leads Bond Market price performance.

Over the past week, the U.S. Treasury Bond was the biggest gainer in the US Bond Markets with a 1.19% rise. The 10-Year Note came in second with a 0.44% increase while the Five-Year Bond was higher by 0.18%.

The 1-Month SOFR saw an uptick by 0.03%, and the 3-Month SOFR was higher by just a tick of 0.01%.

On the downside, the Fed Funds saw a -0.01% decrease while the Two-Year Bond also was a couple of ticks lower by -0.02%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by 5-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (77 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (77 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (76 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the SOFR 3-Months (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the US Treasury Bonds (21 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (22 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (42.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (49.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (21.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (77.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (76.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (35.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (43.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (77.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (83.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (21.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (23.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (75.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (81.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (53.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (51.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (0.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (14.7 percent)

2-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bond (-41.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-41 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-3.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (1.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (11.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (13.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-2.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (12.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (20.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-41.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-49.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (10.9 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-14.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-14.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-40.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-24.7 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -96,824 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -54,824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,000 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	67.1	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	62.4	1.8
– Net Position:	-96,824	89,193	7,631
– Gross Longs:	208,071	1,279,497	42,560
– Gross Shorts:	304,895	1,190,304	34,929
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	57.6	61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	4.2	-13.6

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,473,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -330,187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,143,587 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	63.7	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	52.7	0.3
– Net Position:	-1,473,774	1,474,436	-662
– Gross Longs:	1,674,583	8,525,818	37,330
– Gross Shorts:	3,148,357	7,051,382	37,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.5	40.7	-2.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -139,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 11,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,631 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	65.2	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	55.5	0.0
– Net Position:	-139,037	139,261	-224
– Gross Longs:	297,504	932,468	192
– Gross Shorts:	436,541	793,207	416
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	46.5	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	14.2	-0.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,560,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 41,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,602,612 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	78.6	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	48.3	3.3
– Net Position:	-1,560,837	1,498,142	62,695
– Gross Longs:	487,295	3,881,287	226,572
– Gross Shorts:	2,048,132	2,383,145	163,877
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	81.4	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.0	-16.1	-6.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,350,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 11,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,362,145 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	77.7	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	57.8	6.8
– Net Position:	-1,350,516	1,382,881	-32,365
– Gross Longs:	694,412	5,418,755	438,786
– Gross Shorts:	2,044,928	4,035,874	471,151
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	30.9	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-6.9	-32.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -848,052 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -66,885 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -781,167 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	74.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	61.4	6.3
– Net Position:	-848,052	786,275	61,777
– Gross Longs:	566,207	4,366,133	430,774
– Gross Shorts:	1,414,259	3,579,858	368,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.4	71.3	42.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	-1.8	18.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -114,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -25,053 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,901 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	79.2	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	70.2	13.1
– Net Position:	-114,954	235,846	-120,892
– Gross Longs:	263,782	2,071,478	221,012
– Gross Shorts:	378,736	1,835,632	341,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.1	37.4	12.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-8.8	-10.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -178,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -5,820 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -172,854 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	76.0	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	70.0	8.9
– Net Position:	-178,674	111,298	67,376
– Gross Longs:	182,942	1,427,336	234,918
– Gross Shorts:	361,616	1,316,038	167,542
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.2	74.6	27.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.6	39.9	-25.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -254,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -15,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -238,994 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	82.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	71.9	8.0
– Net Position:	-254,464	264,146	-9,682
– Gross Longs:	139,936	2,087,342	192,061
– Gross Shorts:	394,400	1,823,196	201,743
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.7	43.3	5.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	1.1	-8.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

24 May

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by WTI Crude & Heating Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude & Heating Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets with a modest weekly rise was WTI Crude (2,703 contracts) with Heating Oil (2,635 contracts) and the Bloomberg Index (315 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-15,890 contracts), Brent Oil (-6,932 contracts) and with Gasoline (-3,596 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Energy Markets price performance lower across the board.

The Energy Markets saw lower prices across the board with all six of the markets we cover seeing weekly declines. The lowest weekly decline for the past five days was by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which fell by -1.94%. Natural Gas came in second with a -3.61% decline, and Gasoline fell by almost -4% with a -3.96% shortfall.

Heating Oil was next with a -5.42% decrease on the week, while WTI Crude Oil dropped by -6.78%. Brent Oil saw the biggest decline on the week with a -7.25% drop.

All the Energy Markets have seen higher percentages over the past 30 days, with Gasoline the highest at a 16.68% increase over the past 30 days.

Natural Gas is the only market with a decline over the past 90 days as it has fallen by -16.98%. Gasoline prices are up 78.39% over the past 90 days. Heating Oil, WTI Crude Oil, and Brent Oil are all higher by over 50% in these past 90 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil

On the downside, the Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.3 percent) and Natural Gas (9.1 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was WTI Crude (42.8 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (42.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (41.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (45.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (55.4 percent)
Natural Gas (9.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (19.3 percent)
Gasoline (43.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (47.4 percent)
Heating Oil (50.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (47.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (0.0 percent)

Brent Oil tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Brent Oil (8.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets and was the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gasoline (-9.6 percent) and WTI Crude (-9.5 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Natural Gas (-5.3 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-9.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-14.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (8.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (25.4 percent)
Natural Gas (-5.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-5.7 percent)
Gasoline (-9.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-15.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-4.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-9.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-1.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-100.0 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 172,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 2,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,877 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	45.0	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	55.0	2.5
– Net Position:	172,580	-200,409	27,829
– Gross Longs:	384,294	900,625	78,845
– Gross Shorts:	211,714	1,101,034	51,016
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	55.5	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	9.2	-1.0

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -24,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -6,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,034 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	34.2	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.8	25.6	2.4
– Net Position:	-24,966	20,829	4,137
– Gross Longs:	59,813	83,284	9,907
– Gross Shorts:	84,779	62,455	5,770
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	51.1	95.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-10.1	5.7

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -192,196 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -15,890 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -176,306 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	36.2	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	25.3	2.6
– Net Position:	-192,196	174,224	17,972
– Gross Longs:	230,391	578,821	59,864
– Gross Shorts:	422,587	404,597	41,892
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.1	93.3	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	8.0	-9.9

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,929 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -3,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,525 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	47.4	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	67.5	4.3
– Net Position:	50,929	-64,242	13,313
– Gross Longs:	80,150	151,612	27,203
– Gross Shorts:	29,221	215,854	13,890
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	47.6	78.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	9.8	-5.1

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,008 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	46.3	19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	58.6	9.4
– Net Position:	5,643	-31,776	26,133
– Gross Longs:	41,735	118,940	50,371
– Gross Shorts:	36,092	150,716	24,238
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.9	36.3	89.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	-1.5	13.1

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -76,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,730 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.5	55.7	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.8	24.6	0.0
– Net Position:	-76,415	75,902	513
– Gross Longs:	106,216	135,902	538
– Gross Shorts:	182,631	60,000	25
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1	21.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.3	99.7	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	1.2	-8.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Energy Financial News

24 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (18,509 contracts) with Wheat (14,684 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,088 contracts) and Soybean Oil (5 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-25,435 contracts) with Soybeans (-11,764 contracts), Cotton (-9,919 contracts), Coffee (-5,099 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,863 contracts), Cocoa (-2,507 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,616 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Price Performance Leaders led by Coffee

Coffee led the Soft Commodities price performances this week in an overall down week for most of the Soft Commodities markets. Coffee rose by over 2% with a 2.14% gain and was followed by Soybeans, which was virtually unchanged but had a 0.21% uptick.

On the downside, Soybean Oil dipped by -0.67%, followed by Sugar, which was lower by -0.68%, and by Corn, which declined by -0.91%.

Next, Soybean Oil fell by more than -2% with a -2.21% decline, followed by Wheat, which fell by -2.40%, and Lean Hogs, which dropped by -2.85%. Cocoa was lower by over -5% with a -5.26% shortfall, while Cotton was lower by -5.76% over the past five days.

The biggest negative gainer on the week was Live Cattle, which dropped by almost 7% with a -6.94% decrease for the past 5 days.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Wheat (99 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (94 percent), Cotton (94 percent) and Soybeans (91 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Lean Hogs (21 percent), Sugar (34 percent) and Coffee (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (84.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (88.4 percent)
Sugar (33.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (30.3 percent)
Coffee (39.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (44.3 percent)
Soybeans (90.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (93.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (94.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (94.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (95.5 percent)
Live Cattle (67.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (71.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (20.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.2 percent)
Cotton (94.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (100.0 percent)
Cocoa (7.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.5 percent)
Wheat (99.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (87.2 percent)

Cotton & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (19 percent) and Soybean Meal (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (16 percent), Corn (9 percent) and Cocoa (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-13 percent), Coffee (-6 percent) and Sugar (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.6 percent)
Sugar (-1.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.3 percent)
Coffee (-5.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.0 percent)
Soybeans (0.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-0.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (9.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (17.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (11.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-13.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (2.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-38.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-33.0 percent)
Cotton (18.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (32.1 percent)
Cocoa (5.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.7 percent)
Wheat (15.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-4.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 358,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -25,435 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 383,537 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	40.2	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	55.5	10.6
– Net Position:	358,102	-288,625	-69,477
– Gross Longs:	569,689	757,342	129,874
– Gross Shorts:	211,587	1,045,967	199,351
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.9	13.4	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-8.4	-9.9

SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -78,909 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 18,509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,418 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	50.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	42.8	8.1
– Net Position:	-78,909	71,445	7,464
– Gross Longs:	240,256	487,110	86,264
– Gross Shorts:	319,165	415,665	78,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.9	66.3	41.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	0.7	4.9

COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -5,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,059 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	38.6	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	46.7	4.6
– Net Position:	15,960	-15,381	-579
– Gross Longs:	53,799	73,346	8,137
– Gross Shorts:	37,839	88,727	8,716
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	63.3	5.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	6.1	-9.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 212,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -11,764 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 224,002 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	46.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	64.8	7.9
– Net Position:	212,238	-183,266	-28,972
– Gross Longs:	288,551	479,743	52,144
– Gross Shorts:	76,313	663,009	81,116
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.7	10.7	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	-1.4	7.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 158,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 5 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 158,102 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	44.7	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	68.9	4.0
– Net Position:	158,107	-172,756	14,649
– Gross Longs:	209,661	320,353	43,107
– Gross Shorts:	51,554	493,109	28,458
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.5	4.0	91.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-3.3	-6.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 159,741 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 11,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 148,653 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	39.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	69.1	4.4
– Net Position:	159,741	-183,762	24,021
– Gross Longs:	208,033	245,006	51,157
– Gross Shorts:	48,292	428,768	27,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	77.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.4	-18.8	21.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 90,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -3,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,505 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.9	28.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	50.2	11.7
– Net Position:	90,889	-78,298	-12,591
– Gross Longs:	156,500	104,747	29,883
– Gross Shorts:	65,611	183,045	42,474
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.5	26.9	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	11.5	12.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,197 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -4,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,334 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	39.8	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	36.7	8.0
– Net Position:	-7,197	10,228	-3,031
– Gross Longs:	89,006	129,862	23,175
– Gross Shorts:	96,203	119,634	26,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.7	81.5	62.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.5	38.5	20.1

COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 92,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -9,919 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,389 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	33.7	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	65.1	2.5
– Net Position:	92,470	-103,545	11,075
– Gross Longs:	137,278	110,947	19,326
– Gross Shorts:	44,808	214,492	8,251
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.1	7.3	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-18.2	14.5

COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -15,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,981 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	52.6	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	45.0	5.2
– Net Position:	-15,488	14,704	784
– Gross Longs:	40,134	101,849	10,773
– Gross Shorts:	55,622	87,145	9,989
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.3	93.4	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-6.6	8.7

WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 14,684 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,421 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	33.1	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	33.5	7.2
– Net Position:	263	-1,992	1,729
– Gross Longs:	143,267	157,233	36,126
– Gross Shorts:	143,004	159,225	34,397
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.5	0.9	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.9	-17.0	3.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

10 May

Yen Speculator Bets jump after intervention, CAD & AUD Bets continue higher as USD Index Bets fall

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (40,321 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (23,817 contracts), the Brazilian Real (20,354 contracts), the Australian Dollar (6,805 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (700 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-5,696 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-3,815 contracts), the EuroFX (-3,510 contracts), the British Pound (-3,269 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,929 contracts) and Bitcoin (-951 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Yen Speculator Bets jump after intervention, CAD & AUD Bets continue higher as USD Index Bets fall

Highlighting the Currency speculator positions this week was a boost in the Japanese Yen, the Canadian Dollar, and the Brazilian Real positions while the US Dollar Index bets fell by the most since the fall.

First off, the Japanese Yen speculator position jumped by over 40,000 contracts this week after it had previously fallen in four out of the previous five weeks. This has a lot to do with the Bank of Japan intervening in the Currency market last week, as the BOJ has been trying to arrest the Japanese Yen’s fall. Currently, the speculator net position for the Japanese Yen contracts remains in a bearish level for a 10th straight week, with the total net position this week at -61,738 net contracts. The BOJ currency intervention has stemmed the slide in the yen for the time being, but this week’s USD/JPY currency pair closed out the week at 156.68.

The Brazilian Real saw its speculator bets jump this week by over 20,000 net contracts. This is a third consecutive week of positive changes and this week’s boost has pushed the net position over 66,000 bullish contracts. This is the highest level for the Brazilian Real contracts since September 30th of 2025, a span of 31 weeks. In the Futures market, the Brazilian Real continues to be on a strong bullish uptrend against the US Dollar, and this week closed at the highest level since February of 2024.

Canadian Dollar contracts continued their strong weekly gains with a third consecutive weekly rise and a boost by over 23,000 contracts this week. This recent positive sentiment for the Canadian Dollar has taken the net speculator bearish standing down to a total of -14,659 net contracts — the best position (least bearish) of the past six weeks. In the Foreign Exchange markets this week, the Canadian Dollar cooled off after four consecutive gaining weeks, and this week closed out at a 0.7321 exchange level. The CAD is still in an ascending triangle pattern and would need to rise clean above 0.7400 to the upside for a further bullish break out.

The Australian Dollar net position saw a second straight weekly gain and is now at the highest speculator position of the past five weeks. Overall, the Australian Dollar speculator positioning is in a super strong position, considering it’s near the top of its three-year range with a strength score of 98.5%. The Australian Dollar bets have now been in bullish territory for 15 consecutive weeks. In the Foreign Exchange market, the Australian Dollar has continued on a strong uptrend after falling as low as 0.5920 in April of 2025. Since that low, the AUD has ascended by over 20% and now trades at 0.7237 against the US Dollar, the highest level since 2022.

The US Dollar Index saw speculator bets dropped this week by -3,815 contracts and marks the biggest one-week fall since September. The US Dollar Index speculator bets have now declined for four consecutive weeks and have taken the overall net position to a virtual neutral level at just 693 net contracts. The US Dollar Index in the Foreign Exchange markets dipped this week for a second consecutive week, however, it remains in its range that has persisted for almost a year with a low support level of 96.50 and a high resistance level of 100.00 (the USD Index is currently trading at 97.78).

Bitcoin, Mexican Peso, and Brazilian Real lead major Currency price performances.

This week saw Bitcoin lead the pack in price gains with a modest 1.98% rise on the week. The Mexican Peso came in second with a 1.50% gain, while the Brazilian Real was also higher by 1% with a 1.17% uptick. The New Zealand Dollar was higher by approximately 1% this week, while the Swiss Franc rose by 0.58%.

The Euro gained by 0.47%. The Australian Dollar was higher by 0.41%, and the British Pound Sterling rounded out the gainers with a modest uptick of 0.27% on the week.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index tripped by -0.17% this week, while the Japanese Yen was lower by -0.30%. The Canadian Dollar was the biggest negative returner with a -0.67% shortfall.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (99 percent) and the Brazilian Real (89 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (78 percent) and Bitcoin (78 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) and the British Pound (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (31 percent) and the Japanese Yen (34 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (46.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (56.3 percent)
EuroFX (41.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (42.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (29.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (78.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (67.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (98.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (94.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (45.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (49.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (88.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (73.7 percent)
Bitcoin (78.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (97.1 percent)

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (13 percent) and the EuroFX (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-15 percent), Bitcoin (-13 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-7.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.2 percent)
EuroFX (8.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (5.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-2.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (2.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-9.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (-15.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-20.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-5.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-16.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (1.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-24.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-26.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-8.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (12.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-2.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-13.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 693 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -3,815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,508 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	30.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.3	35.7	5.4
– Net Position:	693	-1,569	876
– Gross Longs:	17,048	10,035	2,634
– Gross Shorts:	16,355	11,604	1,758
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.0	52.3	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	8.3	-2.1

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 32,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,712 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	58.9	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	67.9	5.8
– Net Position:	32,202	-73,379	41,177
– Gross Longs:	217,474	480,886	88,156
– Gross Shorts:	185,272	554,265	46,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.0	56.2	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-9.1	7.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -63,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -3,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,639 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	65.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	41.7	9.9
– Net Position:	-63,908	65,684	-1,776
– Gross Longs:	62,573	180,932	25,560
– Gross Shorts:	126,481	115,248	27,336
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.5	85.8	48.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	1.8	2.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -61,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 40,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,059 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	52.7	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.2	35.8	10.1
– Net Position:	-61,738	59,650	2,088
– Gross Longs:	109,035	186,544	37,725
– Gross Shorts:	170,773	126,894	35,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	66.0	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	0.4	-7.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -34,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,221 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	80.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	35.2	20.5
– Net Position:	-34,521	42,861	-8,340
– Gross Longs:	7,145	76,076	11,018
– Gross Shorts:	41,666	33,215	19,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.9	69.4	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	18.7	-17.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 23,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,476 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.1	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	49.9	11.9
– Net Position:	-14,659	12,794	1,865
– Gross Longs:	73,650	134,383	30,958
– Gross Shorts:	88,309	121,589	29,093
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	23.0	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	5.7	-3.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 78,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 6,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,869 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	33.0	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	70.8	5.4
– Net Position:	78,674	-105,545	26,871
– Gross Longs:	143,214	92,272	42,086
– Gross Shorts:	64,540	197,817	15,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.5	1.5	96.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-4.9	7.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -48,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -1,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,322 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	85.0	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.2	27.2	5.3
– Net Position:	-48,251	49,327	-1,076
– Gross Longs:	9,063	72,581	3,486
– Gross Shorts:	57,314	23,254	4,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	89.6	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	24.3	-5.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 62,127 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -5,696 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,823 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.0	46.9	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	82.7	1.0
– Net Position:	62,127	-66,944	4,817
– Gross Longs:	91,592	87,636	6,627
– Gross Shorts:	29,465	154,580	1,810
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.1	52.8	49.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	7.0	9.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 20,354 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,443 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.3	24.2	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	78.1	1.0
– Net Position:	66,797	-70,648	3,851
– Gross Longs:	93,500	31,743	5,099
– Gross Shorts:	26,703	102,391	1,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	10.8	42.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-12.6	0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,441 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -951 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,392 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.5	1.5	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.3	8.1	4.6
– Net Position:	1,441	-1,539	98
– Gross Longs:	19,301	349	1,184
– Gross Shorts:	17,860	1,888	1,086
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	22.4	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	9.1	13.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

10 May

Speculator Extremes: Cotton, SOFR 3-Months lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday May 5th.

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in at the top of the extreme standings this week as the Cotton speculator level is at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was an increase by 47 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 100,682 net contracts this week with a gain of 19,741 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in second this week in the extreme standings. The Soybean Oil speculator level resides at an approximate 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a boost of 21 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 168,887 net contracts this week with a fall of -2,925 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as the third in the most bullish extreme standings this week with the AUD speculator level also currently at an approximate 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled an advance by 4 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 78,674 net contracts this week with a boost of 6,805 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise higher by 8 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was 433,384 net contracts this week with a strong gain of 92,644 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Soybeans speculator level sits at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost of 4 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 232,198 net contracts this week with a rise of 38,259 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The SOFR 3-Months speculator level is at just a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -35 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -1,100,455 net contracts this week with a fall of -347,436 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the Cocoa speculator level sits at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score saw no change this week while the speculator position was -20,234 net contracts this week with a boost of 3,409 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year speculator level resides at a 8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -4 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -1,673,329 net contracts this week with an addition of 35,934 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the NZD speculator level sitting at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -24 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -48,251 net contracts this week with a retreat of -1,929 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

Next, the British Pound speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week with the GBP speculator level at a 12 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -2 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -63,908 net contracts this week with a fall of -3,269 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

10 May

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold with a gain of 3,732 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Steel (-849 contracts), Platinum (-765 contracts), Copper (-432 contracts), Silver (-268 contracts) and with Palladium (-12 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold Bets stable around +160,000 net contracts

Highlighting the Metals markets today: This week saw speculator bets in Gold rise very modestly by a little under +4,000 net contracts. Gold positioning has stabilized right around the +160,000 to +165,000 net contract standing over the past 15 or so weeks. Previously, Gold bullish contracts had been over 200,000 net contracts week in and week out before falling lower in late January.

Open interest levels for Gold have fallen off dramatically and are around 360,000 contracts this week. The average open interest contracts since the beginning of 2025 have been around 460,000 contracts, illustrating that the market interest has cooled off in these past few months.

The Gold’s futures price closed this week around the $4,730 level and is still in a long-term strong uptrend. It has bounced back by almost 15% from the recent fall in March to the $4,100 level.

Silver leads the Metals markets price performance.

The last five days saw Silver come in with the biggest return in price performance for the overall Metals market. Silver rose by 6.08% for the week and has now notched a 10.86% increase over the past 30 days. Copper came in second with a 4.95% rise on the week and has been higher by 12.77% over the past 30 days.

Gold comes in third with a 2.38% gain on the week and has been just a bit higher at a 1.09% return over the past 30 days.

Platinum followed with a 1.96% gain this week, and Steel rounded out the weekly gainers with a 1.74% rise.

On the downside, Palladium dipped by -3.55%. Palladium is now also down by -0.24% over the past 30 days and has fallen by -26.62% in the past 90 days.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (92 percent) and Steel (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (82.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (27 percent) and Gold (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.1 percent)
Silver (27.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.5 percent)
Copper (91.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (92.2 percent)
Platinum (55.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (57.4 percent)
Palladium (82.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (82.2 percent)
Steel (84.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (88.7 percent)

Copper & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (24 percent) and Platinum (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Gold (-2.1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-2.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-0.1 percent)
Silver (-1.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.8 percent)
Copper (23.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (14.2 percent)
Platinum (4.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (4.1 percent)
Palladium (-1.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-8.4 percent)
Steel (-15.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 163,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 3,732 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 159,571 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.6	15.8	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	69.9	3.7
– Net Position:	163,303	-198,935	35,632
– Gross Longs:	211,814	58,230	49,252
– Gross Shorts:	48,511	257,165	13,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.7	56.5	70.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	2.0	0.4

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,892 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,160 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	26.9	26.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	68.7	9.5
– Net Position:	23,892	-40,535	16,643
– Gross Longs:	32,965	26,094	25,811
– Gross Shorts:	9,073	66,629	9,168
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.0	72.4	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	-0.4	5.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 62,849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,281 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.4	35.6	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	66.6	3.7
– Net Position:	62,849	-72,017	9,168
– Gross Longs:	96,261	82,829	17,854
– Gross Shorts:	33,412	154,846	8,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.8	8.4	61.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.6	-22.2	2.1

Platinum Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,550 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	29.1	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	66.5	5.4
– Net Position:	17,785	-22,651	4,866
– Gross Longs:	26,668	17,659	8,130
– Gross Shorts:	8,883	40,310	3,264
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.5	48.1	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-2.3	-7.9

Palladium Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -12 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,464 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.0	39.3	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.3	34.5	10.0
– Net Position:	-1,476	775	701
– Gross Longs:	6,402	6,289	2,307
– Gross Shorts:	7,878	5,514	1,606
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.2	22.4	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	4.8	-19.1

Steel Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,066 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	64.3	1.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.4	94.6	0.2
– Net Position:	11,217	-11,631	414
– Gross Longs:	12,516	24,734	483
– Gross Shorts:	1,299	36,365	69
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	7.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.8	15.1	89.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	15.1	-8.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

10 May

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by 5-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (100,106 contracts) with the Fed Funds (45,127 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (35,934 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (34,850 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (23,868 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-347,436 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-97,991 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-77,320 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-59,287 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The US Treasury Bond leads Bond market price performances this week.

In the major Bond markets for the US, the US Treasury Bond saw the biggest uptick this week with a 0.53% increase. The 10-Year Note came in second with a 0.17% edge higher, followed by the Five-Year Bond, which notched up by 0.06%. The One-Month SOFR and the Three-Month SOFR markets were both virtually unchanged but edged up by 0.01%.

The Fed Funds were a minuscule tick lower with a -0.01% decline.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra 10-Year Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (80 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (74 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The 5-Year Bonds (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the SOFR 3-Months (1.7 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the US Treasury Bonds (23 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (39 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (50 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (60.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (53.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (71.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (66.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (39.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (36.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (79.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (100.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (23.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (43.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (73.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (60.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (50.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (67.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (1.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (20.0 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) and the Fed Funds (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bond (-62.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-35 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (8.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (1.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-4.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-25.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (14.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (-20.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-28.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (46.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-62.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-42.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (7.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-4.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (22.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-35.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-10.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 45,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,312 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	63.9	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	66.7	1.7
– Net Position:	30,815	-43,823	13,008
– Gross Longs:	232,066	1,019,087	40,483
– Gross Shorts:	201,251	1,062,910	27,475
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.3	38.6	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-8.7	-2.5

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,100,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -347,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -753,019 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	62.1	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	53.5	0.4
– Net Position:	-1,100,455	1,102,960	-2,505
– Gross Longs:	1,813,618	7,914,410	46,774
– Gross Shorts:	2,914,073	6,811,450	49,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.7	99.2	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.5	36.0	-5.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -158,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -97,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,204 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	67.8	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	54.1	0.1
– Net Position:	-158,195	158,160	35
– Gross Longs:	182,424	781,598	1,383
– Gross Shorts:	340,619	623,438	1,348
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	49.8	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	4.8	0.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,673,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 35,934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,709,263 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	80.5	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.7	47.0	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,673,329	1,590,309	83,020
– Gross Longs:	497,399	3,820,890	228,341
– Gross Shorts:	2,170,728	2,230,581	145,321
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.9	92.1	10.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	3.9	0.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,421,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 100,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,521,405 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	80.5	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	60.1	5.3
– Net Position:	-1,421,299	1,352,390	68,909
– Gross Longs:	636,574	5,331,093	419,738
– Gross Shorts:	2,057,873	3,978,703	350,829
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.7	29.7	26.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-3.5	12.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -815,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 23,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -839,137 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	77.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	63.5	6.5
– Net Position:	-815,269	747,343	67,926
– Gross Longs:	610,543	4,158,508	418,672
– Gross Shorts:	1,425,812	3,411,165	350,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	65.8	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.7	20.7	12.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -105,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -77,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,840 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	81.3	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	71.6	13.6
– Net Position:	-105,160	234,926	-129,766
– Gross Longs:	228,236	1,968,305	200,190
– Gross Shorts:	333,396	1,733,379	329,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	37.2	5.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-9.5	-29.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -172,942 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -59,287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -113,655 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	76.3	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	71.2	8.5
– Net Position:	-172,942	93,024	79,918
– Gross Longs:	181,128	1,395,908	234,966
– Gross Shorts:	354,070	1,302,884	155,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	69.9	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-62.5	48.9	-7.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -259,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 34,850 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -294,285 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	85.4	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	73.7	8.2
– Net Position:	-259,435	268,886	-9,451
– Gross Longs:	136,694	1,964,862	179,461
– Gross Shorts:	396,129	1,695,976	188,912
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	45.1	5.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	4.3	-31.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

10 May

COT Energy Charts: Speculators push Brent Crude Oil Bearish Bets to lowest since October

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil & Gasoline

The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil (16,333 contracts) with Gasoline (2,677 contracts) and Heating Oil (2,022 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-13,125 contracts), Bloomberg Index (-1,552 contracts) and Natural Gas (-373 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Brent Crude Oil Bearish Bets drop to lowest since October

Highlighting Energy futures markets this week is Brent Crude Oil. This market saw a jump by over 16,000 speculative net contracts this week and this market has seen gains in seven out of the past 10 weeks. The Brent Crude Oil futures market traditionally has a negative net large speculator standing due to a lot of hedging activity. This week, however, the market is close to an almost neutral overall position with a total of -9,224 net contracts. This is the least bearish level for Brent Crude Oil since October 2025. Typically, when bets have fallen this low, the oil price is also low. The last two times the net position has been this low, the Brent Crude Oil price has been trading around $60 per barrel. But due to the Iran war, the oil price is currently over $100 per barrel with perhaps more risk to the upside at the moment.

Energy market prices were down across the board this week.

In the Energy markets, In the Energy markets price performances, we saw lower markets all across the board for the week. Heating Oil dipped by -1.43%, followed by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which fell by -1.63%.

Gasoline was lower by over 2% this week with a -2.02% decline. Natural Gas was also lower by -2.68%. Brent Oil fell by -6.58%, while WTI Crude Oil was the biggest negative returner on the week with a -7.32% decrease.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Brent Oil & Gasoline

On the downside, the Bloomberg Index (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Natural Gas (25.5 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (44.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (49.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (68.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (44.7 percent)
Natural Gas (25.5 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (25.8 percent)
Gasoline (52.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (49.2 percent)
Heating Oil (50.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (48.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (1.6 percent)

Brent Oil & Natural Gas top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Brent Oil (11.9 percent) and Natural Gas (3.8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

The Bloomberg Index (-64.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with WTI Crude Oil (-17.7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-17.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-8.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (11.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-4.3 percent)
Natural Gas (3.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (7.5 percent)
Gasoline (-12.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-22.5 percent)
Heating Oil (-5.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-15.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-64.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-62.5 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 178,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -13,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 191,911 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	45.1	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	55.1	2.5
– Net Position:	178,786	-206,150	27,364
– Gross Longs:	381,542	933,442	79,154
– Gross Shorts:	202,756	1,139,592	51,790
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	53.8	55.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	18.6	-11.9

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 16,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,557 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	32.0	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	29.3	2.8
– Net Position:	-9,224	6,203	3,021
– Gross Longs:	71,485	74,079	9,396
– Gross Shorts:	80,709	67,876	6,375
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	28.6	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-14.1	11.3

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -166,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -166,273 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	35.5	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	26.1	2.6
– Net Position:	-166,646	153,150	13,496
– Gross Longs:	237,674	578,708	55,616
– Gross Shorts:	404,320	425,558	42,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.5	79.3	37.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	0.3	-16.1

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 58,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 2,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,216 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	47.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	71.4	3.8
– Net Position:	58,893	-73,382	14,489
– Gross Longs:	83,248	149,329	26,330
– Gross Shorts:	24,355	222,711	11,841
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	38.5	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	10.1	4.2

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,689 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 2,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,667 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	47.8	19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	59.9	9.2
– Net Position:	5,689	-29,537	23,848
– Gross Longs:	42,178	115,956	46,091
– Gross Shorts:	36,489	145,493	22,243
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.9	38.4	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	0.1	10.4

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -76,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,084 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.7	54.5	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.4	24.0	0.0
– Net Position:	-76,636	76,162	474
– Gross Longs:	111,634	136,162	527
– Gross Shorts:	188,270	60,000	53
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1	9.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-64.9	64.9	1.8

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