COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Coffee

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (17,036 contracts) with Coffee (11,447 contracts), Lean Hogs (8,408 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,994 contracts), Wheat (1,465 contracts) and Cotton (126 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-8,692 contracts), Live Cattle (-6,854 contracts), Soybeans (-4,326 contracts), Corn (-3,315 contracts) and Cocoa (-2,659 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (97 percent) and Cotton (76 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (65 percent), Cocoa (44 percent) and Live Cattle (44 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (9 percent), Corn (10 percent) and Soybean Meal (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is in Wheat (26 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (10.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.9 percent)
Sugar (33.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (26.9 percent)
Coffee (96.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (84.9 percent)
Soybeans (8.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (28.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (25.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (11.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (15.2 percent)
Live Cattle (43.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (51.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (65.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (58.2 percent)
Cotton (75.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (75.4 percent)
Cocoa (44.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.0 percent)
Wheat (25.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (24.6 percent)

Lean Hogs & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (22 percent) and Soybean Oil (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (12 percent), Corn (10 percent) and Sugar (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-11 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Live Cattle (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (10.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.4 percent)
Sugar (9.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.0 percent)
Coffee (11.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.2 percent)
Soybeans (0.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (19.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (10.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (6.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-2.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (14.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (21.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (27.2 percent)
Cotton (-4.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (3.5 percent)
Cocoa (-14.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-13.3 percent)
Wheat (-10.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-22.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -181,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	43.1	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	31.2	10.5
– Net Position:	-181,336	192,640	-11,304
– Gross Longs:	294,298	698,351	159,330
– Gross Shorts:	475,634	505,711	170,634
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.5	88.4	95.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.5	-11.6	7.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 117,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	51.2	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	67.0	7.3
– Net Position:	117,461	-133,030	15,569
– Gross Longs:	196,650	433,097	76,912
– Gross Shorts:	79,189	566,127	61,343
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.1	68.7	25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-10.8	14.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,482 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,035 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.4	35.0	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	63.0	2.8
– Net Position:	67,482	-69,399	1,917
– Gross Longs:	90,293	86,645	8,823
– Gross Shorts:	22,811	156,044	6,906
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.6	6.9	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-12.7	16.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -158,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -153,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	60.4	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	39.8	7.7
– Net Position:	-158,040	169,140	-11,100
– Gross Longs:	95,389	496,933	52,452
– Gross Shorts:	253,429	327,793	63,552
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.8	91.6	78.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-0.6	0.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,994 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	44.6	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	44.8	4.4
– Net Position:	-3,857	-1,239	5,096
– Gross Longs:	117,212	262,783	30,930
– Gross Shorts:	121,069	264,022	25,834
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.9	71.4	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-19.1	14.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -38,437 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	49.2	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	44.2	6.7
– Net Position:	-38,437	23,944	14,493
– Gross Longs:	92,955	235,819	46,577
– Gross Shorts:	131,392	211,875	32,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	87.2	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-2.1	-8.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 60,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,854 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.2	34.4	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	52.1	11.7
– Net Position:	60,056	-53,210	-6,846
– Gross Longs:	115,438	104,081	28,519
– Gross Shorts:	55,382	157,291	35,365
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.7	57.7	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	4.8	-11.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 43,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,727 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	34.2	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	46.9	10.5
– Net Position:	43,135	-36,362	-6,773
– Gross Longs:	106,839	98,353	23,519
– Gross Shorts:	63,704	134,715	30,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	37.6	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.9	-21.8	-8.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 88,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	36.9	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	71.0	3.5
– Net Position:	88,765	-97,058	8,293
– Gross Longs:	119,875	105,058	18,390
– Gross Shorts:	31,110	202,116	10,097
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.5	24.6	66.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	4.4	-0.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 33,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	35.0	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	56.7	4.6
– Net Position:	33,671	-39,902	6,231
– Gross Longs:	59,653	64,498	14,675
– Gross Shorts:	25,982	104,400	8,444
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	52.0	65.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	12.8	14.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -60,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,722 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	35.4	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	21.1	7.7
– Net Position:	-60,257	59,755	502
– Gross Longs:	119,394	147,382	32,581
– Gross Shorts:	179,651	87,627	32,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.7	71.1	68.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	7.5	23.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

06 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was S&P500-Mini (91,317 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (1,921 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (86 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-6,429 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-3,417 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-626 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-472 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (87 percent) and the Russell-Mini (69 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (31 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is currently the only market with a score below 50 percent (the midpoint of the past three years of positions).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (60.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (67.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (53.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (39.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (87.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (92.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (31.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (28.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (69.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (69.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (50.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (50.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (57.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (58.2 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (24 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (21 percent), the Nikkei 225 (9 percent) and the Russell2000-Mini (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-48 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the VIX (-12 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-12.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (7.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (20.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (6.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-0.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-0.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-47.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-60.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (1.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (2.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (8.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (5.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (23.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (20.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -50,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,902 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	45.9	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	31.3	8.3
– Net Position:	-50,331	53,551	-3,220
– Gross Longs:	67,410	168,474	27,253
– Gross Shorts:	117,741	114,923	30,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	38.4	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.2	11.1	6.1

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -78,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 91,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -169,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	70.7	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	71.7	8.5
– Net Position:	-78,122	-20,612	98,734
– Gross Longs:	290,089	1,476,688	275,700
– Gross Shorts:	368,211	1,497,300	176,966
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	37.1	76.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-22.6	9.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	49.1	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	70.3	11.9
– Net Position:	16,595	-19,811	3,216
– Gross Longs:	32,106	45,901	14,377
– Gross Shorts:	15,511	65,712	11,161
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	9.5	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-1.3	5.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	57.4	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	58.1	13.3
– Net Position:	-5,195	-1,570	6,765
– Gross Longs:	65,399	149,038	41,324
– Gross Shorts:	70,594	150,608	34,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	50.8	92.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-47.7	33.8	-0.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,173 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	76.8	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	74.3	4.2
– Net Position:	-22,173	11,733	10,440
– Gross Longs:	74,238	363,074	30,378
– Gross Shorts:	96,411	351,341	19,938
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.4	28.0	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-5.1	20.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 86 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.0	69.5	25.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	67.9	12.5
– Net Position:	-2,506	275	2,231
– Gross Longs:	863	11,962	4,386
– Gross Shorts:	3,369	11,687	2,155
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	36.1	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-11.5	10.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -8,405 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,933 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	89.0	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	88.5	1.3
– Net Position:	-8,405	2,328	6,077
– Gross Longs:	34,826	393,315	11,626
– Gross Shorts:	43,231	390,987	5,549
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	39.5	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.6	-23.8	2.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

30 Mar

Speculator Extremes: MXN, Gasoline & Silver lead Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on March 26th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 16.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 132,068 net contracts this week with a rise of 3,398 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Gasoline

The Gasoline speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Gasoline speculator level is now at a 99.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 19.5 this week. The speculator position registered 75,729 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 5,721 contracts in speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level resides at a 96.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 58.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 50,836 net contracts this week with a decline of -1,599 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is at a 92.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -0.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 20,012 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,433 contracts in the speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 92.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 22.4 this week.

The speculator position was -3,119 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,736 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -44.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -21,968 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,468 contracts in the speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Australian Dollar speculator level is at a 1.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -23.7 this week. The speculator position was -105,452 net contracts this week with a boost of 2,086 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Japanese Yen speculator level resides at a 3.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -129,106 net contracts this week with a drop of -13,094 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 3.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.6 this week. The speculator position was -629 net contracts this week with a dip of -1,308 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybeans

Finally, the Soybeans speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 9.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 1.8 this week. The speculator position was -153,714 net contracts this week with an increase by 13,939 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

24 Mar

FX Speculators drop Australian Dollar bets to new record low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 19th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were sharply lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (24,378 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (1,627 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-26,065 contracts) with the British Pound (-17,251 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-16,698 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-13,690 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-6,274 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-5,507 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,630 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,654 contracts) and Bitcoin (-1,102 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators drop their Australian Dollar bets to new record low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the renewed bearishness in the speculator’s positioning for the Australian dollar. Large speculative Aussie currency positions dropped this week by over -16,000 net contracts, the largest weekly decline in twenty-six weeks and the third straight weekly fall. The AUD speculator positions have decreased in nine out of the past ten weeks as well with an overall drop by -75,264 net contracts in that ten-week period.

This rise in bearishness has pushed the speculators bets to the most bearish level on record at a total of -107,538 net contracts. This surpasses the previous record of -96,946 contracts that was hit on September 19th of 2023. The overall Aussie speculator positioning has now been in bearish territory since dropping from a net bullish position to a net bearish position on May 25th of 2021 and this week marks the 148th consecutive week of continuous bearish speculator levels.

Denting the sentiment for the Aussie Dollar was a recent interest rate hold by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on March 19th. The RBA left its cash rate at 4.35 percent as inflation continues to decrease and with many market watchers feeling this was a dovish meeting and statement.

The Australian dollar is in a downtrend, according to our trend following model, with the Aussie closing out the week against the US Dollar at 0.6531. The AUD/USD currency pair opened the 2024 trading year at the 0.6823 exchange rate and has been trending lower since hitting a multi-year high of approximately 0.8000 in February of 2021.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the British Pound (89 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (60 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar (0 percent), the Swiss Franc (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (6 percent) and the Japanese Yen (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (6.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (17.9 percent)
EuroFX (40.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (52.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (88.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (100.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (14.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (8.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (27.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (33.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (13.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (59.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (67.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (87.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (47.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (45.8 percent)
Bitcoin (34.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (51.4 percent)

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (22 percent) and the British Pound (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies and are the only markets with positive scores.

The Swiss Franc (-44 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-30 percent), Japanese Yen (-28 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-25 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-1.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (12.3 percent)
EuroFX (-5.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-6.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (24.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-28.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-19.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (-43.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-40.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-24.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-23.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-29.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-27.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-2.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (21.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (12.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-12.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-12.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-8.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.4	16.2	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.5	23.3	8.7
– Net Position:	679	-1,691	1,012
– Gross Longs:	15,573	3,861	3,091
– Gross Shorts:	14,894	5,552	2,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.3	98.0	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	2.0	-1.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 48,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -26,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	59.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	70.6	7.6
– Net Position:	48,342	-74,130	25,788
– Gross Longs:	182,382	388,839	75,816
– Gross Shorts:	134,040	462,969	50,028
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	61.5	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.9	4.8	1.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 53,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.0	29.3	15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	58.5	13.3
– Net Position:	53,200	-57,617	4,417
– Gross Longs:	102,605	57,898	30,742
– Gross Shorts:	49,405	115,515	26,325
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.6	13.4	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-16.1	19.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -116,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	60.3	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.3	22.2	15.2
– Net Position:	-116,012	115,119	893
– Gross Longs:	66,274	182,299	46,762
– Gross Shorts:	182,286	67,180	45,869
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	84.4	85.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.2	27.7	-1.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,630 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	68.2	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.8	21.6	31.5
– Net Position:	-20,500	33,392	-12,892
– Gross Longs:	13,003	48,825	9,665
– Gross Shorts:	33,503	15,433	22,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.4	100.0	18.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.7	57.7	-41.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -37,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	66.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.0	48.6	13.6
– Net Position:	-37,148	41,437	-4,289
– Gross Longs:	45,761	153,407	27,007
– Gross Shorts:	82,909	111,970	31,296
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.9	77.4	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.7	23.1	-16.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -107,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,840 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	71.9	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.0	19.4	12.5
– Net Position:	-107,538	116,062	-8,524
– Gross Longs:	38,207	158,919	19,035
– Gross Shorts:	145,745	42,857	27,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	32.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.8	26.4	-0.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,465 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	51.9	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	51.9	8.1
– Net Position:	-189	-7	196
– Gross Longs:	19,064	26,118	4,278
– Gross Shorts:	19,253	26,125	4,082
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	40.6	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	2.4	0.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 128,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 24,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 104,292 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.4	37.0	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	80.8	1.1
– Net Position:	128,670	-132,984	4,314
– Gross Longs:	183,182	112,132	7,548
– Gross Shorts:	54,512	245,116	3,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	38.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.7	-20.5	-7.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 10,314 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.3	31.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	51.1	2.1
– Net Position:	10,314	-12,526	2,212
– Gross Longs:	39,444	19,347	3,551
– Gross Shorts:	29,130	31,873	1,339
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	50.4	55.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	11.4	2.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,096 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.4	7.8	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.7	4.0	2.5
– Net Position:	-2,096	1,253	843
– Gross Longs:	24,683	2,580	1,663
– Gross Shorts:	26,779	1,327	820
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.9	96.6	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	12.6	1.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

23 Mar

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 5-Year Bonds & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (105,077 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (36,461 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (32,079 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (29,536 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (12,156 contracts) and the Fed Funds (905 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-125,140 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-19,601 contracts).

Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (76 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (76 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (20 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (24 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently. The next lowest strength scores were the Fed Funds (27 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (29 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (26.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (26.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (36.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (34.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (19.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (13.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (29.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (26.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (24.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (28.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (75.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (64.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (63.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (58.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (75.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (82.3 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (42 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bonds (24 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-13 percent) and the Fed Funds (-13 percent) leads the downside currently with negative trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-12.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-8.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (25.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (23.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-4.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (23.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (23.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (12.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (41.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (28.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (15.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (5.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-13.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-14.4 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 302,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -125,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 427,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	56.3	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	59.1	0.3
– Net Position:	302,139	-298,573	-3,566
– Gross Longs:	1,899,123	6,195,531	28,551
– Gross Shorts:	1,596,984	6,494,104	32,117
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.9	24.1	85.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	13.0	1.6

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -194,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -195,750 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	72.9	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	62.5	2.0
– Net Position:	-194,845	192,059	2,786
– Gross Longs:	151,004	1,352,227	39,137
– Gross Shorts:	345,849	1,160,168	36,351
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.9	70.5	96.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	10.1	22.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -901,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 36,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -938,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	80.3	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	59.0	3.6
– Net Position:	-901,595	787,910	113,685
– Gross Longs:	422,597	2,969,326	245,616
– Gross Shorts:	1,324,192	2,181,416	131,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.7	60.4	87.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.8	-27.4	-9.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,157,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 105,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,262,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	84.0	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	65.7	5.5
– Net Position:	-1,157,057	1,069,939	87,118
– Gross Longs:	395,194	4,907,528	406,591
– Gross Shorts:	1,552,251	3,837,589	319,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.9	79.9	81.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-8.0	-7.4

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -574,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 29,536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -603,546 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	77.6	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	65.3	8.6
– Net Position:	-574,010	526,781	47,229
– Gross Longs:	461,066	3,327,859	414,071
– Gross Shorts:	1,035,076	2,801,078	366,842
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	62.3	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.8	-31.3	-1.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -153,271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,601 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -133,670 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	73.7	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	62.2	13.9
– Net Position:	-153,271	233,014	-79,743
– Gross Longs:	294,809	1,497,187	203,561
– Gross Shorts:	448,080	1,264,173	283,304
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.3	75.1	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-18.9	12.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 32,079 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,533 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	69.4	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	70.7	10.0
– Net Position:	-22,454	-19,971	42,425
– Gross Longs:	242,086	1,034,162	191,844
– Gross Shorts:	264,540	1,054,133	149,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.7	5.5	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.9	-42.7	-12.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -304,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -316,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	79.8	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	61.6	10.0
– Net Position:	-304,714	287,081	17,633
– Gross Longs:	139,244	1,263,105	175,999
– Gross Shorts:	443,958	976,024	158,366
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.2	36.7	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-19.0	1.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

23 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Positions led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (13,517 contracts) with Soybeans (12,760 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,316 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,182 contracts), Sugar (6,360 contracts), Lean Hogs (1,606 contracts) and Live Cattle (925 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-6,266 contracts), Cotton (-5,881 contracts), Wheat (-2,291 contracts) and Cocoa (-190 contracts) with lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (79 percent) and Cotton (78 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (58 percent), Lean Hogs (57 percent) and Cocoa (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (7 percent) and Soybean Meal (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Corn (11 percent) and the Soybean Oil (18 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (11.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.5 percent)
Sugar (23.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (21.3 percent)
Coffee (78.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (85.3 percent)
Soybeans (6.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (3.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (10.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (4.1 percent)
Live Cattle (58.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (57.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (57.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (56.0 percent)
Cotton (77.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (82.1 percent)
Cocoa (56.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (56.7 percent)
Wheat (28.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.2 percent)

Live Cattle & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (27 percent) and Lean Hogs (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (24 percent), Soybean Oil (9 percent) and Corn (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-12 percent), Soybean Meal (-5 percent) and Coffee (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (6.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.4 percent)
Sugar (3.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.1 percent)
Coffee (-4.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.3 percent)
Soybeans (-1.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (9.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-4.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-9.4 percent)
Live Cattle (26.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (38.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (34.4 percent)
Cotton (23.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (41.6 percent)
Cocoa (-12.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-26.4 percent)
Wheat (-12.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-12.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -175,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,517 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -189,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	43.6	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	31.9	10.5
– Net Position:	-175,513	183,490	-7,977
– Gross Longs:	294,129	683,677	156,429
– Gross Shorts:	469,642	500,187	164,406
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.2	87.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-7.8	9.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 91,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,963 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.5	52.7	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	64.4	7.5
– Net Position:	91,323	-97,873	6,550
– Gross Longs:	179,189	439,456	69,342
– Gross Shorts:	87,866	537,329	62,792
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.6	79.4	11.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	0.7	-19.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 50,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.8	39.8	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	63.3	3.0
– Net Position:	50,165	-51,523	1,358
– Gross Longs:	73,789	86,913	7,862
– Gross Shorts:	23,624	138,436	6,504
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	24.7	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	4.9	-1.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -167,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -180,413 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	61.4	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	38.0	8.4
– Net Position:	-167,653	180,816	-13,163
– Gross Longs:	97,583	474,988	52,094
– Gross Shorts:	265,236	294,172	65,257
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	94.2	73.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	2.0	-5.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,206 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	46.6	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	43.7	4.3
– Net Position:	-20,206	16,387	3,819
– Gross Longs:	108,981	264,146	28,339
– Gross Shorts:	129,187	247,759	24,520
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	81.4	28.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-9.3	7.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -45,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	48.8	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	42.4	6.5
– Net Position:	-45,705	30,378	15,327
– Gross Longs:	90,991	230,591	46,201
– Gross Shorts:	136,696	200,213	30,874
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	89.8	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	5.7	-11.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 73,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,845 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.0	31.9	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	52.5	12.3
– Net Position:	73,770	-65,773	-7,997
– Gross Longs:	124,765	102,081	31,407
– Gross Shorts:	50,995	167,854	39,404
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.5	42.4	47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.6	-26.6	-15.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 33,622 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,016 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	36.8	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	47.9	9.9
– Net Position:	33,622	-29,122	-4,500
– Gross Longs:	92,556	97,267	21,740
– Gross Shorts:	58,934	126,389	26,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.3	44.0	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.5	-31.2	8.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 91,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,513 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.7	33.5	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	69.9	3.4
– Net Position:	91,632	-100,621	8,989
– Gross Longs:	126,335	92,568	18,265
– Gross Shorts:	34,703	193,189	9,276
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.7	22.1	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.9	-23.2	14.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 45,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.3	30.5	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	55.2	3.8
– Net Position:	45,582	-51,282	5,700
– Gross Longs:	73,188	63,093	13,493
– Gross Shorts:	27,606	114,375	7,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	40.6	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	12.1	4.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -56,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	36.0	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	21.8	8.4
– Net Position:	-56,060	57,895	-1,835
– Gross Longs:	119,628	146,951	32,432
– Gross Shorts:	175,688	89,056	34,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	69.8	58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.3	10.9	13.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

23 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P 500 & EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SP500 & EAFE

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as all seven out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (45,658 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (13,261 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (9,765 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (6,774 contracts), the VIX (4,316 contracts), the Russell-Mini (5,610 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (1,171 contracts) also having positive weeks.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (97 percent) and the Russell-Mini (76 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (67 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (61 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (36 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (66.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (62.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (35.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (29.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (96.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (85.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (56.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (41.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (75.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (71.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (56.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (48.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (58.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (44.7 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (23 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (15 percent), the S&P500-Mini (6 percent) and the VIX (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (4.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (5.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (5.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-2.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (2.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-33.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-58.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (4.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-6.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (14.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (9.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (23.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (8.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -44,790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	47.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	34.8	8.3
– Net Position:	-44,790	48,644	-3,854
– Gross Longs:	67,646	179,887	27,545
– Gross Shorts:	112,436	131,243	31,399
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	33.0	76.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-4.9	1.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -194,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 45,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -239,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	73.5	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	68.2	8.5
– Net Position:	-194,169	110,101	84,068
– Gross Longs:	258,169	1,539,140	261,988
– Gross Shorts:	452,338	1,429,039	177,920
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.8	55.1	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-7.1	5.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 22,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	45.2	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	71.4	12.6
– Net Position:	22,445	-24,632	2,187
– Gross Longs:	35,688	42,385	13,967
– Gross Shorts:	13,243	67,017	11,780
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.8	2.5	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-1.3	-2.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,395 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	55.5	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	62.5	13.2
– Net Position:	11,160	-17,526	6,366
– Gross Longs:	68,217	138,897	39,354
– Gross Shorts:	57,057	156,423	32,988
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	33.3	91.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.7	22.9	2.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	78.6	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	77.5	4.3
– Net Position:	-13,484	5,273	8,211
– Gross Longs:	69,077	370,396	28,373
– Gross Shorts:	82,561	365,123	20,162
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.5	23.9	56.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-2.1	-11.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	66.5	25.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	68.3	15.5
– Net Position:	-1,421	-313	1,734
– Gross Longs:	1,386	11,492	4,413
– Gross Shorts:	2,807	11,805	2,679
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	34.0	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.6	-13.2	1.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	88.6	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	88.3	0.9
– Net Position:	-7,682	1,369	6,313
– Gross Longs:	38,124	390,369	10,384
– Gross Shorts:	45,806	389,000	4,071
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.5	38.5	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.4	-24.8	7.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

23 Mar

Speculator Extremes: Peso, Silver, Aussie & Franc lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on March 19th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 21.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 128,670 net contracts this week with a boost of 24,378 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is now at a 99.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 54.2 this week. The speculator position registered 52,435 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 11,457 contracts in speculator bets.

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The DowJones Mini speculator level resides at a 96.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 2.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 22,445 net contracts this week with a jump of 6,774 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The British Pound speculator level is at a 88.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 12.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 53,200 net contracts this week with a drop of -17,251 contracts in the speculator bets.

Gasoline

The Gasoline speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Gasoline speculator level sits at a 87.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 11.0 this week.

The speculator position was 70,008 net contracts this week with an increase of 10,470 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Australian Dollar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -29.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -107,538 net contracts this week with a drop of -16,698 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 0.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -43.7 this week. The speculator position was -20,500 net contracts this week with a decrease of -2,630 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The US Dollar Index speculator level resides at a 6.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 679 net contracts this week with a decline of -5,507 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 6.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.5 this week. The speculator position was -167,653 net contracts this week with a rise of 12,760 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

Finally, the Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 8.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.8 this week. The speculator position was -45,705 net contracts this week with a gain of 11,182 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

22 Mar

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Copper & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Copper & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while two markets had lower speculator contracts and one market had no change in weekly contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (26,498 contracts) with Silver (11,457 contracts) and Palladium (562 contracts) also experiencing positive contract weeks.

The market leading the declines in speculator bets was Platinum (-1,139 contracts) with Steel (-289 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.

Gold (0 contracts) saw a very rare unchanged position for the week, according to the CFTC data.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (99 percent) and Steel (87 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (76 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (21 percent) and Platinum (33 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (67.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (67.3 percent)
Silver (99.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (81.9 percent)
Copper (75.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (46.0 percent)
Platinum (33.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (35.9 percent)
Palladium (21.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (17.7 percent)
Steel (86.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (87.8 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (54 percent) and Copper (51 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (17.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (24.2 percent)
Silver (54.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (29.8 percent)
Copper (51.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (15.7 percent)
Platinum (-8.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-10.5 percent)
Palladium (5.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.7 percent)
Steel (-3.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 201,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of 0 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.1	25.8	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	66.5	6.2
– Net Position:	201,602	-217,530	15,928
– Gross Longs:	278,732	138,102	49,131
– Gross Shorts:	77,130	355,632	33,203
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.3	36.5	25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-15.2	-8.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,978 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.7	26.0	17.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	67.8	10.0
– Net Position:	52,435	-64,017	11,582
– Gross Longs:	77,632	39,876	26,859
– Gross Shorts:	25,197	103,893	15,277
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.4	13.0	30.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.2	-38.4	-28.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 31,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 26,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,427 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.1	26.7	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	41.3	5.3
– Net Position:	31,925	-39,502	7,577
– Gross Longs:	124,316	71,934	21,878
– Gross Shorts:	92,391	111,436	14,301
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	24.7	66.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	51.0	-51.4	30.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,280 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,139 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.4	23.7	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	38.9	4.8
– Net Position:	6,280	-13,078	6,798
– Gross Longs:	42,540	20,413	10,934
– Gross Shorts:	36,260	33,491	4,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.0	63.2	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	6.0	8.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,019 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 562 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	63.5	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.6	10.6	9.0
– Net Position:	-10,019	10,234	-215
– Gross Longs:	4,427	12,292	1,528
– Gross Shorts:	14,446	2,058	1,743
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	6.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.0	83.4	28.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-3.8	-20.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	83.7	1.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	74.1	0.9
– Net Position:	-2,526	2,417	109
– Gross Longs:	2,293	21,012	323
– Gross Shorts:	4,819	18,595	214
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.7	13.8	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	3.8	-6.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

16 Mar

Mexican Peso Speculator bets touching most bullish levels in 4 years

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning and the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (16,521 contracts) with the British Pound (12,066 contracts), the EuroFX (8,096 contracts), the US Dollar Index (3,087 contracts), the Brazilian Real (407 contracts) and Bitcoin (358 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-11,037 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,097 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-4,763 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-2,294 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-319 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators boosting Mexican Peso positions to best levels in 4 years

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the continued strength in the Mexican peso positioning. Large speculators slightly trimmed (-2,294 contracts) their bullish bets for the Mexican peso this week but have been pushing their bets to multi-year highs over the past month.

Last week, on March 5th, the large speculator position rose by over +12,772 contracts and ascended to the most bullish level (+106,586 contracts) of the past 208 weeks, dating back all the way to March 10th of 2020. Since the beginning of November, speculators have increased their bullish bets in thirteen out of nineteen weeks and have added a total of +72,995 contracts to the overall net bullish standing, going from +31,297 contracts on October 31st to a total of +104,292 contracts this week.

Helping the Mexican peso positioning has been the record high interest rates in Mexico at 11.25 percent which gives the currency an interest rate differential advantage over the other major currencies. The Mexican economy has been on a steady growth path as well with the year-over-year GDP expanding by 2.5 percent in the 4th quarter following 3.5 percent growth in the third quarter of 2023 and 3.4 percent growth in the second quarter.

The Mexican peso exchange rate has been strongly trending higher in the currency markets versus the US Dollar and the other major currencies. The peso exchange level versus the US Dollar, on Thursday, reached its highest level since July of 2023 at just over the 0.0600 exchange rate. The peso has also been higher versus all of the other major currencies we track on a year-over-year basis.

The Bank of Mexico does meet on March 21st with a market expectation of a possible interest rate reduction — so we will see if the peso can continue to shine in 2024 following a great 2023 when the peso had an approximate gain versus the USD by a little over 14 percent.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Mexican Peso (99 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (67 percent), EuroFX (52 percent) and Bitcoin (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores and above their midpoint (50 percent) of the last three years.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar (6 percent), the Swiss Franc (8 percent) and the US Dollar Index (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Japanese Yen (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (17.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (11.4 percent)
EuroFX (52.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (48.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (92.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (27.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (12.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (8.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (9.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (33.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (42.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (11.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (67.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (80.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (98.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (100.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (45.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (45.2 percent)
Bitcoin (51.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (46.1 percent)

British Pound & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (24 percent) and the Mexican Peso (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (12 percent), the Bitcoin (12 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Swiss Franc (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-30 percent), Canadian Dollar (-24 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-19 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (12.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.1 percent)
EuroFX (-6.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-9.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (24.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-19.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-42.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-40.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-36.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-23.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-9.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-29.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-28.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (18.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-12.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-20.1 percent)
Bitcoin (12.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (4.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.6	11.9	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	36.1	10.1
– Net Position:	6,186	-6,381	195
– Gross Longs:	17,547	3,127	2,853
– Gross Shorts:	11,361	9,508	2,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.9	88.0	13.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-12.0	-2.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 74,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	56.0	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	70.6	7.5
– Net Position:	74,407	-104,604	30,197
– Gross Longs:	193,998	402,081	84,306
– Gross Shorts:	119,591	506,685	54,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.0	50.0	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	4.3	4.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 70,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.4	37.6	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	66.0	7.8
– Net Position:	70,451	-78,920	8,469
– Gross Longs:	123,285	104,338	30,123
– Gross Shorts:	52,834	183,258	21,654
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	1.5	74.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.1	-23.3	10.3

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -102,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.9	63.7	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.3	33.7	13.2
– Net Position:	-102,322	97,877	4,445
– Gross Longs:	54,923	207,478	47,586
– Gross Shorts:	157,245	109,601	43,141
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.0	69.5	96.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	15.3	12.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -17,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	69.0	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	34.2	24.8
– Net Position:	-17,870	28,703	-10,833
– Gross Longs:	11,236	56,885	9,575
– Gross Shorts:	29,106	28,182	20,408
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.1	88.9	28.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.8	51.5	-34.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -30,874 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,037 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	59.0	15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	43.3	15.3
– Net Position:	-30,874	30,296	578
– Gross Longs:	35,964	113,942	30,149
– Gross Shorts:	66,838	83,646	29,571
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.2	70.4	24.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.9	21.5	-13.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -90,840 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.1	66.0	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.6	23.5	12.1
– Net Position:	-90,840	97,678	-6,838
– Gross Longs:	41,591	151,731	20,858
– Gross Shorts:	132,431	54,053	27,696
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.6	90.6	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.8	29.7	-15.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,465 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,763 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	50.1	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	58.3	5.4
– Net Position:	2,465	-4,337	1,872
– Gross Longs:	16,391	26,408	4,700
– Gross Shorts:	13,926	30,745	2,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	30.0	78.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-9.9	7.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 104,292 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.6	39.7	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	73.3	0.8
– Net Position:	104,292	-110,810	6,518
– Gross Longs:	180,140	131,144	9,172
– Gross Shorts:	75,848	241,954	2,654
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.7	1.1	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-14.1	7.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.3	39.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	62.4	1.9
– Net Position:	8,687	-11,253	2,566
– Gross Longs:	26,314	19,532	3,502
– Gross Shorts:	17,627	30,785	936
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.8	52.0	58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	11.6	4.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 358 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.2	4.9	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.4	4.7	2.8
– Net Position:	-994	59	935
– Gross Longs:	24,977	1,486	1,800
– Gross Shorts:	25,971	1,427	865
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	66.2	34.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.1	-24.4	3.5

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