COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Wheat

By InvestMacro 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (18,509 contracts) with Wheat (14,684 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,088 contracts) and Soybean Oil (5 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-25,435 contracts) with Soybeans (-11,764 contracts), Cotton (-9,919 contracts), Coffee (-5,099 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,863 contracts), Cocoa (-2,507 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,616 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Price Performance Leaders led by Coffee

Coffee led the Soft Commodities price performances this week in an overall down week for most of the Soft Commodities markets. Coffee rose by over 2% with a 2.14% gain and was followed by Soybeans, which was virtually unchanged but had a 0.21% uptick.

On the downside, Soybean Oil dipped by -0.67%, followed by Sugar, which was lower by -0.68%, and by Corn, which declined by -0.91%.

Next, Soybean Oil fell by more than -2% with a -2.21% decline, followed by Wheat, which fell by -2.40%, and Lean Hogs, which dropped by -2.85%. Cocoa was lower by over -5% with a -5.26% shortfall, while Cotton was lower by -5.76% over the past five days.

The biggest negative gainer on the week was Live Cattle, which dropped by almost 7% with a -6.94% decrease for the past 5 days.

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Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Wheat (99 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (94 percent), Cotton (94 percent) and Soybeans (91 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Lean Hogs (21 percent), Sugar (34 percent) and Coffee (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (84.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (88.4 percent)
Sugar (33.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (30.3 percent)
Coffee (39.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (44.3 percent)
Soybeans (90.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (93.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (94.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (94.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (95.5 percent)
Live Cattle (67.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (71.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (20.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.2 percent)
Cotton (94.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (100.0 percent)
Cocoa (7.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.5 percent)
Wheat (99.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (87.2 percent)

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Cotton & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (19 percent) and Soybean Meal (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (16 percent), Corn (9 percent) and Cocoa (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-13 percent), Coffee (-6 percent) and Sugar (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.6 percent)
Sugar (-1.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.3 percent)
Coffee (-5.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.0 percent)
Soybeans (0.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-0.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (9.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (17.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (11.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-13.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (2.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-38.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-33.0 percent)
Cotton (18.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (32.1 percent)
Cocoa (5.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.7 percent)
Wheat (15.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-4.2 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 358,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decrease of -25,435 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 383,537 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	40.2	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	55.5	10.6
– Net Position:	358,102	-288,625	-69,477
– Gross Longs:	569,689	757,342	129,874
– Gross Shorts:	211,587	1,045,967	199,351
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.9	13.4	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-8.4	-9.9

 

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SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -78,909 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position rise of 18,509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,418 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	50.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	42.8	8.1
– Net Position:	-78,909	71,445	7,464
– Gross Longs:	240,256	487,110	86,264
– Gross Shorts:	319,165	415,665	78,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.9	66.3	41.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	0.7	4.9

 

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COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decline of -5,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,059 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	38.6	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	46.7	4.6
– Net Position:	15,960	-15,381	-579
– Gross Longs:	53,799	73,346	8,137
– Gross Shorts:	37,839	88,727	8,716
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	63.3	5.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	6.1	-9.8

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 212,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position reduction of -11,764 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 224,002 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	46.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	64.8	7.9
– Net Position:	212,238	-183,266	-28,972
– Gross Longs:	288,551	479,743	52,144
– Gross Shorts:	76,313	663,009	81,116
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.7	10.7	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	-1.4	7.4

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 158,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position boost of 5 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 158,102 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	44.7	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	68.9	4.0
– Net Position:	158,107	-172,756	14,649
– Gross Longs:	209,661	320,353	43,107
– Gross Shorts:	51,554	493,109	28,458
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.5	4.0	91.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-3.3	-6.3

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 159,741 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position boost of 11,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 148,653 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	39.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	69.1	4.4
– Net Position:	159,741	-183,762	24,021
– Gross Longs:	208,033	245,006	51,157
– Gross Shorts:	48,292	428,768	27,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	77.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.4	-18.8	21.7

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 90,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decrease of -3,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,505 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.9	28.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	50.2	11.7
– Net Position:	90,889	-78,298	-12,591
– Gross Longs:	156,500	104,747	29,883
– Gross Shorts:	65,611	183,045	42,474
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.5	26.9	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	11.5	12.9

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,197 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position reduction of -4,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,334 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	39.8	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	36.7	8.0
– Net Position:	-7,197	10,228	-3,031
– Gross Longs:	89,006	129,862	23,175
– Gross Shorts:	96,203	119,634	26,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.7	81.5	62.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.5	38.5	20.1

 

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COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 92,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decrease of -9,919 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,389 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	33.7	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	65.1	2.5
– Net Position:	92,470	-103,545	11,075
– Gross Longs:	137,278	110,947	19,326
– Gross Shorts:	44,808	214,492	8,251
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.1	7.3	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-18.2	14.5

 

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COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -15,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,981 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	52.6	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	45.0	5.2
– Net Position:	-15,488	14,704	784
– Gross Longs:	40,134	101,849	10,773
– Gross Shorts:	55,622	87,145	9,989
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.3	93.4	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-6.6	8.7

 

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WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position advance of 14,684 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,421 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	33.1	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	33.5	7.2
– Net Position:	263	-1,992	1,729
– Gross Longs:	143,267	157,233	36,126
– Gross Shorts:	143,004	159,225	34,397
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.5	0.9	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.9	-17.0	3.8

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.