COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by Brent Oil

By InvestMacro 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil with an increase by 9,488 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-25,573 contracts), Gasoline (-8,579 contracts), Natural Gas (-7,842 contracts), the Bloomberg Index (-5,608 contracts) and with Heating Oil (-2,267 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Energy markets were lower across the board

For the Energy markets this week, they were all lower across the board with Natural Gas seeing the least decline on the week with a -1.29% shortfall. The Bloomberg Commodity Index dropped by -2.42%, while Gasoline was lower by -2.54%.

Heating Oil was lower by -9.23%, followed by WTI Crude Oil, which dropped by -9.73%.

Brent Oil was the biggest decliner on the week with a -9.76% decrease.

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Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Brent Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Brent Oil (68.5 percent) leads the energy markets this week.

On the downside, the Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.0 percent) and Natural Gas (8.0 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was WTI Crude (29.2 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (29.2 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (37.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (68.5 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (55.0 percent)
Natural Gas (8.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (13.0 percent)
Gasoline (39.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (48.6 percent)
Heating Oil (45.8 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (48.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (5.4 percent)

 

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Brent Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Brent Oil (23.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

WTI Crude (-19.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Natural Gas (-17.8 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-19.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-11.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (23.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (7.1 percent)
Natural Gas (-17.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-11.4 percent)
Gasoline (-10.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-1.6 percent)
Heating Oil (-2.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-1.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-5.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-0.4 percent)

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Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 130,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position lowering of -25,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 155,874 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	45.8	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	54.3	2.4
– Net Position:	130,301	-170,726	40,425
– Gross Longs:	360,524	919,786	89,544
– Gross Shorts:	230,223	1,090,512	49,119
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.2	64.6	80.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.9	15.0	25.0

 

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Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position gain of 9,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,371 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	31.9	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	30.9	2.7
– Net Position:	-8,883	2,462	6,421
– Gross Longs:	56,151	80,160	13,212
– Gross Shorts:	65,034	77,698	6,791
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	22.9	96.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.8	-32.3	44.8

 

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Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -193,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position reduction of -7,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,115 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	35.8	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	25.1	2.3
– Net Position:	-193,957	175,738	18,219
– Gross Longs:	240,948	586,195	56,264
– Gross Shorts:	434,905	410,457	38,045
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.0	90.8	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	15.8	7.5

 

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Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position fall of -8,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,622 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	47.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	66.2	4.6
– Net Position:	47,043	-58,973	11,930
– Gross Longs:	80,104	149,266	26,345
– Gross Shorts:	33,061	208,239	14,415
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.1	52.9	71.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	9.9	-3.4

 

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#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,824 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position lowering of -2,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,091 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	44.1	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	54.4	9.9
– Net Position:	1,824	-26,341	24,517
– Gross Longs:	40,044	112,298	49,677
– Gross Shorts:	38,220	138,639	25,160
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.8	41.5	85.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	3.6	-5.4

 

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Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -80,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decline of -5,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,282 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.6	56.7	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.2	24.2	0.0
– Net Position:	-80,890	80,412	478
– Gross Longs:	102,893	140,412	536
– Gross Shorts:	183,783	60,000	58
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1	9.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	63.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	5.6	-5.0

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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