The situation in the Middle East remains uncertain

On Thursday, US stock indices posted gains after a volatile session. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.55%. The S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.17%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.09%. The main driver of optimism was the third consecutive day of declining oil prices amid reports of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran. Diplomatic signals indicating a narrowing of differences and a potential resolution of the conflict supported the broader market, allowing the utilities, consumer discretionary, and materials sectors to lead gains despite underperformance in the energy segment. Market pressure came from a more than 7% drop in Walmart shares after the retailer warned of business risks associated with persistently high fuel costs.

In Europe, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.53%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.39%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined 0.42%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up 0.11%. Market sentiment was also restrained by weak macroeconomic data: preliminary Eurozone PMI indices reflected a noticeable slowdown in private‑sector activity due to the consequences of the conflict.

WTI crude‑oil prices reversed downward, losing more than 2% after a morning gain of 3%, reflecting heightened market volatility amid diplomatic progress in resolving the conflict with Iran. Investor optimism was supported by a statement from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio about encouraging signs of a possible agreement and reports of increased involvement from Pakistani mediators. In addition, Tehran’s willingness to limit exports of weapons‑grade uranium is seen as a constructive step toward meeting key US demands, reducing the risk of further escalation. Despite the current correction, oil prices remain nearly 50% above pre‑war levels, driven by a persistent structural supply deficit in the global market.

The US natural‑gas prices fell below $3.0 per MMBtu, retreating from two‑month highs. The main driver of the decline was a significant oversupply relative to current demand, confirmed by official statistics. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), for the week ending May 15, 2026, US energy companies injected 101 billion cubic feet of gas into underground storage – well above analyst expectations (95 bcf) and the five‑year seasonal average (92 bcf). As a result, total gas inventories strengthened their surplus status ahead of the summer season.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped by 3.14%, China’s FTSE China A50 fell by 1.21%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 1.03%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) rose by 1.47%.

The Australian stock market continued its upward momentum. A key support factor was speculation about monetary policy: the unexpected drop in employment in April (-18.6 thousand jobs) led investors to believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia may pause its rate‑hike cycle after three rounds of tightening this year. However, buying activity remains cautious ahead of next week’s release of the April Consumer Price Index. In March, inflation in Australia jumped to 4.6% year‑over‑year – the highest level since September 2023 – driven by global oil price increases due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.