COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Steel

By InvestMacro 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel with a modest rise by 1,107 weekly contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-4,383 contracts), Platinum (-2,200 contracts), Gold (-2,183 contracts), Silver (-1,712 contracts) and with Palladium (-958 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Palladium and Copper lead Metals markets price changes

Leading the Metals markets this week in price performance was Palladium, which saw a rise by 4.57%. Copper came in next with a 3.18% gain. Steel rose by 0.64%, and Silver rounded out the gainers with a 0.37% rise.

On the downside, Gold fell by -2.39%, and Platinum showed the biggest decline on the week with a -2.77% drop.

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Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (96 percent) and Steel (87 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (24 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the next lowest strength score was Gold (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (42.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (42.9 percent)
Silver (24.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.1 percent)
Copper (96.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (48.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (54.1 percent)
Palladium (72.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (78.7 percent)
Steel (87.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (81.9 percent)

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Copper & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (10 percent) and Gold (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-9 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (5.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.9 percent)
Silver (-3.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (0.3 percent)
Copper (10.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (17.6 percent)
Platinum (-8.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-8.3 percent)
Palladium (-9.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.7 percent)
Steel (-1.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.5 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 173,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position reduction of -2,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 176,020 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.5	17.7	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	78.2	4.7
– Net Position:	173,837	-201,036	27,199
– Gross Longs:	207,984	58,986	42,891
– Gross Shorts:	34,147	260,022	15,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	55.6	45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-2.5	-23.5

 

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Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 22,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,926 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	25.8	26.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	64.8	9.2
– Net Position:	22,214	-40,368	18,154
– Gross Longs:	32,487	26,660	27,673
– Gross Shorts:	10,273	67,028	9,519
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.2	72.7	52.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	0.1	10.3

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 74,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position fall of -4,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,833 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.4	31.4	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	62.0	3.9
– Net Position:	74,450	-83,935	9,485
– Gross Longs:	108,035	86,211	20,089
– Gross Shorts:	33,585	170,146	10,604
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.1	4.0	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-10.0	3.8

 

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Platinum Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 15,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decline of -2,200 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,212 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.7	32.7	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	65.7	5.7
– Net Position:	15,012	-20,552	5,540
– Gross Longs:	24,826	20,452	9,080
– Gross Shorts:	9,814	41,004	3,540
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.6	53.5	62.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	6.8	10.2

 

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Palladium Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position lowering of -958 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,006 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.1	39.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.0	26.8	9.9
– Net Position:	-2,964	2,236	728
– Gross Longs:	7,516	6,909	2,449
– Gross Shorts:	10,480	4,673	1,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.3	31.3	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	10.5	-7.5

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position rise of 1,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,600 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	62.9	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.5	92.1	0.2
– Net Position:	11,707	-12,126	419
– Gross Longs:	13,557	26,118	511
– Gross Shorts:	1,850	38,244	92
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	5.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.1	12.9	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	1.2	9.8

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.