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COT Forex Charts: Speculator’s US Dollar Index bullish bets rise for 9th straight week

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 19th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting this week’s COT Currency data is once again the speculator’s US Dollar Index bullish bets which have gained for nine consecutive weeks. Dollar Index speculative bullish positions have now risen for seventeen out of the past eighteen weeks to hit the highest level in the past one-hundred and five weeks, dating back to October 15th of 2019. The speculator strength index score (current levels compared to past three years) rose again this week and shows that spec sentiment is now in an extreme bullish position (88 percent score) for the third week in a row.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-19-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	60,731	91	35,934	88	-42,728	4	6,794	91
EUR	679,418	75	-12,107	31	-17,573	71	29,680	27
GBP	158,961	13	1,615	75	-2,381	28	766	57
JPY	266,750	100	-102,734	4	122,640	98	-19,906	9
CHF	55,600	36	-17,584	39	33,353	68	-15,769	17
CAD	153,912	33	-10,924	46	-7,837	47	18,761	75
AUD	158,531	51	-76,058	13	81,311	80	-5,253	42
NZD	37,730	20	6,440	82	-7,598	19	1,158	65
MXN	164,268	31	-38,571	1	36,459	99	2,112	52
RUB	53,589	59	22,171	66	-24,341	30	2,170	93
BRL	29,983	30	-658	68	-115	33	773	76
Bitcoin	13,605	93	-2,846	24	246	0	2,600	75

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 35,934 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,062 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.3	3.5	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	73.8	3.0
– Net Position:	35,934	-42,728	6,794
– Gross Longs:	47,568	2,104	8,642
– Gross Shorts:	11,634	44,832	1,848
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.0 to 1	4.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.8	3.6	90.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.0	-26.0	13.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,398 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	57.4	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	59.9	8.5
– Net Position:	-12,107	-17,573	29,680
– Gross Longs:	193,320	389,682	87,763
– Gross Shorts:	205,427	407,255	58,083
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	70.8	27.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	15.7	-27.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	50.0	17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	51.5	17.1
– Net Position:	1,615	-2,381	766
– Gross Longs:	49,112	79,459	27,920
– Gross Shorts:	47,497	81,840	27,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.2	28.3	57.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-13.4	-7.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -102,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -26,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,634 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	77.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.9	31.9	15.4
– Net Position:	-102,734	122,640	-19,906
– Gross Longs:	35,713	207,735	21,090
– Gross Shorts:	138,447	85,095	40,996
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.4	98.1	9.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.2	22.1	-7.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.3	80.3	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	20.3	43.7
– Net Position:	-17,584	33,353	-15,769
– Gross Longs:	2,365	44,662	8,549
– Gross Shorts:	19,949	11,309	24,318
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.9 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	68.4	17.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.1	27.7	-19.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	47.2	25.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	52.3	13.1
– Net Position:	-10,924	-7,837	18,761
– Gross Longs:	40,380	72,675	38,947
– Gross Shorts:	51,304	80,512	20,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.9	46.7	75.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	-1.1	10.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -76,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -87,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	76.6	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.3	25.4	17.0
– Net Position:	-76,058	81,311	-5,253
– Gross Longs:	11,632	121,502	21,748
– Gross Shorts:	87,690	40,191	27,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.1	79.6	41.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	-1.6	18.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,308 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,748 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.7	29.7	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	49.8	9.2
– Net Position:	6,440	-7,598	1,158
– Gross Longs:	21,004	11,194	4,631
– Gross Shorts:	14,564	18,792	3,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.1	18.7	65.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-4.0	0.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -38,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,063 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,634 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.7	52.9	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.2	30.7	2.3
– Net Position:	-38,571	36,459	2,112
– Gross Longs:	70,192	86,864	5,934
– Gross Shorts:	108,763	50,405	3,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.5	99.4	52.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	11.1	-10.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -373 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.7	33.0	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.9	33.4	9.2
– Net Position:	-658	-115	773
– Gross Longs:	16,399	9,906	3,535
– Gross Shorts:	17,057	10,021	2,762
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	33.3	76.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	10.2	-8.2

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 22,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,308 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.9	35.0	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	80.5	1.8
– Net Position:	22,171	-24,341	2,170
– Gross Longs:	31,551	18,778	3,134
– Gross Shorts:	9,380	43,119	964
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.9	29.7	93.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-3.9	13.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,426 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.0	3.6	28.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.9	1.8	9.3
– Net Position:	-2,846	246	2,600
– Gross Longs:	7,069	486	3,868
– Gross Shorts:	9,915	240	1,268
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	59.7	75.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-49.4	38.0	45.8

Article By InvestMacro.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

22 Oct

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Coffee bets remain in bullish extreme level for 26th week

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Highlighting this week’s COT Soft Commodities data is the speculator’s Coffee bullish bets which dipped by just -196 net contracts. Despite the small shortfall this week, Coffee speculative positions continue to be at an extreme bullish level and had risen for nine straight weeks from August 17th to October 12th to a 20-week high. The speculator strength index score (current levels compared to past three years) has continued to remain in an extreme bullish score (above 80 percent) for 26 weeks in a row and is currently at 98 percent. A potential coffee supply shortage as well as speculative effect on coffee prices can be seen in the rapidly appreciating coffee price (see chart below in coffee section).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-19-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	2,205,089	44	429,594	49	-473,181	41	43,587	76
Gold	485,974	22	193,349	56	-219,190	43	25,841	43
Silver	143,664	10	30,356	53	-44,580	55	14,224	23
Copper	225,225	44	40,584	72	-46,208	28	5,624	58
Palladium	9,061	12	-2,416	5	2,355	93	61	48
Platinum	58,570	19	14,844	24	-21,176	79	6,332	50
Natural Gas	1,318,498	48	-131,070	39	86,574	58	44,496	92
Brent	202,714	41	-28,018	73	23,413	23	4,605	76
Heating Oil	415,556	56	26,441	81	-50,250	18	23,809	81
Soybeans	750,939	33	43,541	41	-9,575	64	-33,966	15
Corn	1,404,126	5	277,029	65	-218,172	41	-58,857	9
Coffee	304,874	62	68,889	99	-73,100	3	4,211	17
Sugar	871,316	21	211,550	80	-243,564	22	32,014	47
Wheat	394,949	27	-8,566	40	18,180	59	-9,614	56

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 277,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 279,288 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	49.4	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	64.9	13.3
– Net Position:	277,029	-218,172	-58,857
– Gross Longs:	390,081	693,006	128,301
– Gross Shorts:	113,052	911,178	187,158
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.4	40.8	9.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-2.8	6.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 211,550 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -34,638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 246,188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	43.9	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.1	71.8	6.2
– Net Position:	211,550	-243,564	32,014
– Gross Longs:	273,687	382,386	85,819
– Gross Shorts:	62,137	625,950	53,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.1	22.0	47.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	15.6	-12.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 68,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,085 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	40.5	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.3	64.5	2.4
– Net Position:	68,889	-73,100	4,211
– Gross Longs:	85,100	123,540	11,611
– Gross Shorts:	16,211	196,640	7,400
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.6	2.5	17.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-8.7	-5.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	59.7	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	61.0	11.2
– Net Position:	43,541	-9,575	-33,966
– Gross Longs:	138,576	448,243	50,125
– Gross Shorts:	95,035	457,818	84,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	63.6	15.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	8.3	-14.2

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 87,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,298 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	48.3	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	71.7	4.9
– Net Position:	87,085	-97,547	10,462
– Gross Longs:	114,434	200,793	30,908
– Gross Shorts:	27,349	298,340	20,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	31.0	52.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.2	-20.3	11.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 9,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,587 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	48.7	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	56.0	7.1
– Net Position:	9,114	-32,188	23,074
– Gross Longs:	87,127	214,800	54,299
– Gross Shorts:	78,013	246,988	31,225
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.2	63.6	63.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	2.0	28.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,789 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.2	43.3	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	57.7	13.3
– Net Position:	48,491	-39,825	-8,666
– Gross Longs:	94,585	119,928	28,083
– Gross Shorts:	46,094	159,753	36,749
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	75.2	66.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.1	18.4	4.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 65,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.8	31.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	52.4	14.2
– Net Position:	65,182	-49,056	-16,126
– Gross Longs:	99,071	75,285	17,573
– Gross Shorts:	33,889	124,341	33,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.6	31.8	5.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	12.1	-1.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 104,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 111,391 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.9	37.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.2	79.3	3.2
– Net Position:	104,423	-117,781	13,358
– Gross Longs:	116,323	107,844	22,504
– Gross Shorts:	11,900	225,625	9,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.2	9.1	96.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	1.8	8.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 22,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -17,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	49.8	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	60.6	3.1
– Net Position:	22,821	-27,077	4,256
– Gross Longs:	67,550	124,427	11,933
– Gross Shorts:	44,729	151,504	7,677
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.1	54.7	56.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	6.5	3.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,566 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	41.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	36.4	10.3
– Net Position:	-8,566	18,180	-9,614
– Gross Longs:	97,532	162,052	31,200
– Gross Shorts:	106,098	143,872	40,814
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.7	58.5	55.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	25.3	0.5

Article By InvestMacro.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions Soft Commodities

22 Oct

COT Metals Charts: Copper Speculator bullish bets jump by most in 97-weeks

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Highlighting this week’s COT Metals data was a surge in speculator’s Copper bullish bets which jumped by over +18,000 net contracts. Copper speculative positions rose by the largest one-week amount in the past ninety-seven weeks, dating all the way back to December 10th of 2017 when bullish bets increased by +20,559 contracts. This week’s positive sentiment has pushed the current speculator bullish positioning to a total of +40,584 contracts and its highest standing since May 11th, a span of twenty-three weeks. Overall, Copper speculator bets have now remained in bullish territory for seventy-two straight weeks since turning bullish on June 9th of 2020.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-19-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	2,205,089	44	429,594	49	-473,181	41	43,587	76
Gold	485,974	22	193,349	56	-219,190	43	25,841	43
Silver	143,664	10	30,356	53	-44,580	55	14,224	23
Copper	225,225	44	40,584	72	-46,208	28	5,624	58
Palladium	9,061	12	-2,416	5	2,355	93	61	48
Platinum	58,570	19	14,844	24	-21,176	79	6,332	50
Natural Gas	1,318,498	48	-131,070	39	86,574	58	44,496	92
Brent	202,714	41	-28,018	73	23,413	23	4,605	76
Heating Oil	415,556	56	26,441	81	-50,250	18	23,809	81
Soybeans	750,939	33	43,541	41	-9,575	64	-33,966	15
Corn	1,404,126	5	277,029	65	-218,172	41	-58,857	9
Coffee	304,874	62	68,889	99	-73,100	3	4,211	17
Sugar	871,316	21	211,550	80	-243,564	22	32,014	47
Wheat	394,949	27	-8,566	40	18,180	59	-9,614	56

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 193,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 185,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.7	22.0	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	67.1	4.2
– Net Position:	193,349	-219,190	25,841
– Gross Longs:	299,882	107,128	46,194
– Gross Shorts:	106,533	326,318	20,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.8	43.4	43.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	4.3	-10.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,369 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.3	28.2	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	59.3	9.0
– Net Position:	30,356	-44,580	14,224
– Gross Longs:	66,572	40,556	27,203
– Gross Shorts:	36,216	85,136	12,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.6	55.2	23.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-1.3	-2.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,103 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.0	35.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	55.6	6.0
– Net Position:	40,584	-46,208	5,624
– Gross Longs:	103,496	79,080	19,249
– Gross Shorts:	62,912	125,288	13,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.6	27.7	57.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-11.5	-1.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.8	27.9	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	64.1	5.0
– Net Position:	14,844	-21,176	6,332
– Gross Longs:	30,917	16,346	9,238
– Gross Shorts:	16,073	37,522	2,906
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	78.8	50.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-11.0	-11.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 80 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	49.8	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.5	23.8	14.5
– Net Position:	-2,416	2,355	61
– Gross Longs:	2,882	4,515	1,372
– Gross Shorts:	5,298	2,160	1,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	93.3	48.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	11.2	-2.2

Article By InvestMacro.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

CountingPips Forex Blog Metals Opinions

22 Oct

COT Energy Charts: WTI Crude Oil Speculator bets rise for 6th week

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Highlighting this week’s COT Energy data is the speculator’s WTI Crude Oil bullish bets which have now gained for six straight weeks. WTI crude speculator wagers have risen by a total of +80,436 contracts over that time-frame and has pushed the current bullish standing to an eleven week high-point. The WTI futures price has surged recently to the highest level since 2014 due to many factors including fears over supply combined with more demand.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-19-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	2,205,089	44	429,594	49	-473,181	41	43,587	76
Gold	485,974	22	193,349	56	-219,190	43	25,841	43
Silver	143,664	10	30,356	53	-44,580	55	14,224	23
Copper	225,225	44	40,584	72	-46,208	28	5,624	58
Palladium	9,061	12	-2,416	5	2,355	93	61	48
Platinum	58,570	19	14,844	24	-21,176	79	6,332	50
Natural Gas	1,318,498	48	-131,070	39	86,574	58	44,496	92
Brent	202,714	41	-28,018	73	23,413	23	4,605	76
Heating Oil	415,556	56	26,441	81	-50,250	18	23,809	81
Soybeans	750,939	33	43,541	41	-9,575	64	-33,966	15
Corn	1,404,126	5	277,029	65	-218,172	41	-58,857	9
Coffee	304,874	62	68,889	99	-73,100	3	4,211	17
Sugar	871,316	21	211,550	80	-243,564	22	32,014	47
Wheat	394,949	27	-8,566	40	18,180	59	-9,614	56

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 429,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 404,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	31.7	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.2	53.2	2.5
– Net Position:	429,594	-473,181	43,587
– Gross Longs:	565,720	698,992	97,623
– Gross Shorts:	136,126	1,172,173	54,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	40.6	76.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.8	-24.6	2.1

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,906 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.9	46.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	35.0	2.7
– Net Position:	-28,018	23,413	4,605
– Gross Longs:	34,303	94,287	10,045
– Gross Shorts:	62,321	70,874	5,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.0	22.9	75.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-14.9	23.2

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -131,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -168 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,902 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	43.6	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	37.1	1.8
– Net Position:	-131,070	86,574	44,496
– Gross Longs:	268,031	575,425	68,020
– Gross Shorts:	399,101	488,851	23,524
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	58.2	91.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	-8.0	91.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	46.0	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	63.4	4.3
– Net Position:	48,642	-58,021	9,379
– Gross Longs:	102,687	153,554	23,616
– Gross Shorts:	54,045	211,575	14,237
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.6	79.0	67.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-9.0	1.2

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 26,441 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,696 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,137 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.5	49.7	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	61.8	5.6
– Net Position:	26,441	-50,250	23,809
– Gross Longs:	68,516	206,628	46,898
– Gross Shorts:	42,075	256,878	23,089
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	17.7	80.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	9.2	8.8

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -410 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,117 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	43.1	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	91.0	4.8	0.1
– Net Position:	-16,527	15,992	535
– Gross Longs:	21,506	18,008	593
– Gross Shorts:	38,033	2,016	58
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	8.9 to 1	10.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.2	75.3	47.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	8.5	5.2

Article By InvestMacro.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Opinions

22 Oct

COT Bonds Futures Charts: Treasury Notes, Fed Funds, 10-Year, 2-Year, 5-Year Treasury Notes, Eurodollars

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-19-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	12,424,747	63	-781,200	35	1,080,706	60	-299,506	64
FedFunds	1,217,775	18	-54,484	33	65,503	68	-11,019	42
2-Year	1,991,689	8	-132,952	63	172,598	51	-39,646	2
Long T-Bond	1,186,553	48	-57,571	73	83,737	47	-26,166	32
10-Year	4,095,300	71	-544	75	319,388	60	-318,844	4
5-Year	3,637,741	28	-255,211	47	510,373	82	-255,162	0

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -781,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 82,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -863,600 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	63.4	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	54.7	6.9
– Net Position:	-781,200	1,080,706	-299,506
– Gross Longs:	1,565,312	7,876,268	563,787
– Gross Shorts:	2,346,512	6,795,562	863,293
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	59.5	64.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	5.6	-16.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -54,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,601 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,085 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	77.6	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	72.2	2.5
– Net Position:	-54,484	65,503	-11,019
– Gross Longs:	73,882	945,177	19,058
– Gross Shorts:	128,366	879,674	30,077
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.9	67.8	41.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-3.6	-8.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -132,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -92,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	73.6	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	64.9	8.5
– Net Position:	-132,952	172,598	-39,646
– Gross Longs:	350,293	1,465,365	129,379
– Gross Shorts:	483,245	1,292,767	169,025
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.9	50.6	2.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	22.1	-28.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -255,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 66,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -321,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	77.7	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	63.7	14.0
– Net Position:	-255,211	510,373	-255,162
– Gross Longs:	414,711	2,827,556	253,812
– Gross Shorts:	669,922	2,317,183	508,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.4	81.5	0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.8	40.6	-36.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -156,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 156,042 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	71.4	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	63.6	15.0
– Net Position:	-544	319,388	-318,844
– Gross Longs:	743,719	2,922,085	295,191
– Gross Shorts:	744,263	2,602,697	614,035
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.8	60.3	3.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	11.2	-21.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 139,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 45,454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	72.8	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	70.7	18.4
– Net Position:	139,559	32,149	-171,708
– Gross Longs:	301,286	1,110,821	108,529
– Gross Shorts:	161,727	1,078,672	280,237
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.6	53.3	5.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.7	-14.3	1.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -57,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	74.8	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	67.7	15.8
– Net Position:	-57,571	83,737	-26,166
– Gross Longs:	117,543	887,561	161,202
– Gross Shorts:	175,114	803,824	187,368
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.7	46.8	31.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-0.9	-18.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -311,777 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,637 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -313,414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.0	81.4	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	55.6	12.7
– Net Position:	-311,777	313,784	-2,007
– Gross Longs:	60,848	989,707	152,699
– Gross Shorts:	372,625	675,923	154,706
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.0	68.5	26.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	16.2	-7.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions

22 Oct

COT Stock Market Charts: VIX Volatility, SP500 E-Mini Futures, Nasdaq, Russell-2000 & Dow Jones

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-19-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,386,587	0	67,619	65	-85,275	51	17,656	30
Nikkei 225	16,977	8	1,212	62	-3,790	39	2,578	60
Nasdaq-Mini	237,365	35	-3,057	73	10,428	33	-7,371	27
DowJones-Mini	106,040	78	3,631	40	-8,168	52	4,537	63
VIX	361,391	45	-86,768	50	93,607	51	-6,839	30
Nikkei 225 Yen	54,615	35	1,144	25	28,926	100	-30,070	21

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -86,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,569 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	53.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	27.2	8.2
– Net Position:	-86,768	93,607	-6,839
– Gross Longs:	60,834	191,937	22,690
– Gross Shorts:	147,602	98,330	29,529
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	50.9	30.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-1.0	-1.7

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,619 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -31,164 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 98,783 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	72.0	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	75.6	10.1
– Net Position:	67,619	-85,275	17,656
– Gross Longs:	350,155	1,718,651	258,179
– Gross Shorts:	282,536	1,803,926	240,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.5	50.6	30.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.9	-0.7	-19.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,631 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.8	43.5	16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	51.2	12.1
– Net Position:	3,631	-8,168	4,537
– Gross Longs:	40,105	46,155	17,408
– Gross Shorts:	36,474	54,323	12,871
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	52.4	62.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.2	-12.2	-20.5

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,239 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -818 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	56.9	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	52.5	18.5
– Net Position:	-3,057	10,428	-7,371
– Gross Longs:	60,578	135,012	36,648
– Gross Shorts:	63,635	124,584	44,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	32.9	27.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	4.1	3.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	79.7	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	69.7	4.1
– Net Position:	-59,321	45,830	13,491
– Gross Longs:	56,745	364,548	32,132
– Gross Shorts:	116,066	318,718	18,641
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.0	74.0	71.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	-1.0	12.6

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	56.2	29.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.8	78.6	14.5
– Net Position:	1,212	-3,790	2,578
– Gross Longs:	2,371	9,546	5,033
– Gross Shorts:	1,159	13,336	2,455
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	39.3	59.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.3	-31.7	-5.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,839 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	89.8	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.4	94.6	1.7
– Net Position:	12,839	-18,092	5,253
– Gross Longs:	25,861	342,244	11,565
– Gross Shorts:	13,022	360,336	6,312
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.8	67.3	63.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.8	23.2	-19.7

Article By InvestMacro.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions Stock Market News

22 Oct

The Week Ahead: Market Expects Hawkish Shift From ECB

By Orbex

EURUSD recovers as ECB taper pressure grows

The euro bounces back as markets expect a more aggressive stance from the ECB.

Now that growth within the bloc has almost recovered to the pre-pandemic level, the ECB is one of the last major central banks to signal monetary tightening.

While the supply shock could be a one-off factor, the true headache lies in labor shortages which are driving wages higher. Unlike consumer prices, higher labor costs may not be cut back, making what was once thought to be a temporary price rise permanent.

Traders have started to price in tapering expectations as the single currency rises towards 1.1740. 1.1520 is now fresh support.

USDCAD tumbles ahead of BOC decision

The Canadian dollar stays supported by the prospect of a hawkish tone from the Bank of Canada.

Canada’s Finance Minister has announced that there will be no extension of the COVID-19 support programs for companies and individuals. This is a sign that the economic recovery has gained traction.

The inflation rate climbed to an 18-year-high in September. This placed the central bank under the spotlight in the upcoming interest rate decision.

The loonie’s surge across the board suggests that the BOC could front-run the Fed in the tightening cycle. A drop below 1.2260 may push the US dollar towards 1.2000. 1.2500 is the closest resistance.

USDJPY surges on policy divergence

The Japanese yen sank to a four-year low as the BOJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy lingers on.

Despite the fact that Japan’s economic recovery has become more pronounced, the core consumer price index is still below policymakers’ target of 2%. As a result, the Bank of Japan remains reluctant to reduce monetary easing, unlike its US counterpart which has set a clear timeline for tapering.

This divergence may continue to play out to the yen’s detriment. As analysts expect the BOJ to sit on its hands, the pair is hovering under March 2017’s high of 115.40. A pullback is likely to meet strong buying interest around 112.00.

UKOIL supported by rising demand

Brent crude rallies as OPEC keeps a tight lid on supply. The recent power crunch has opened up demand as surging natural gas and coal prices forced generators to switch to oil.

The combination of economic recovery and winter weather could drastically increase consumption. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is carefully controlling the tap flow with gradual output increases.

An unexpected reduction in US stockpiles in the past week also contributes to the bullish case. Overall sentiment remains positive as long as this supply-demand imbalance goes on. Price action is testing October 2018’s high at 86.70 with 79.00 as the first support.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

22 Oct

Who Will Replace Jerome Powell As Fed Chairman?

By Orbex

– The conventional wisdom is that the longer the President waits to confirm the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the more likely it is that there will be a replacement.

Generally, the idea is to reassure markets about continuity, to minimize uncertainty. If the President has decided to keep the Chairman, typically it’s announced as soon as possible. However, if the President wants someone new, finding a replacement typically delays the announcement.

In order to get an idea of potential timing, we can look at the history of the process. Trump was highly critical of the Fed during the campaign. In fact, he announced that he would replace then Chairman Yellen (now Secretary of the Treasury) on November 4.

The position’s term lasts until February. But the idea is to nominate someone as early as possible to ensure a smooth transition. Congress goes into recess in December, meaning that any appointment would have to come soon.

What can we expect?

By comparison, Obama opted to keep Ben Bernanke in his post, making the announcement in late August. It’s also important to note that Obama came into office in the middle of an economic crisis.

That said, the pattern repeats itself going further back. Usually, confirmation statements happen in the middle of summer, and changes are announced typically in early November.

Of course, Biden might be the exception to the trend. Nevertheless, given the political landscape and practicalities, we’ll likely know in the next two weeks whether or not Powell gets to keep his job.

Both the Fed and the White House have been tight-lipped about whether a change is coming, or who would be nominated. By this time during the Trump administration, several candidates had been named and even interviewed by the President.

Why the change?

The Biden administration has not commented on the Fed, beyond affirming that the President had confidence in Powell “at this time”.

The relationship between the Secretary of the Treasury and the Fed Chair is notoriously cordial. Therefore, it would seem odd that the administration would shake things up.

Criticism has come from the progressive wing of the Democratic party. In fact, they are the most vocal critics of Powell – a Republican appointed by a Republican president. Chief among them are Senator Warren and Representative Ocasio-Cortez.

Specifically, they argue that the Fed has not done an adequate job regulating the banking sector. Moreover, they contend the Fed hasn’t done enough to address “climate justice”, and has actually reduced the amount of financial oversight it does.

Does this mean a change in policy?

One of the reasons that the markets aren’t particularly worried about a change in the Fed Chair is that the critics of Powell aren’t demanding a change in monetary policy.

The assumption is that should Biden choose a new Fed Chair to placate the more progressive wing, the policy trajectory in terms of the taper and interest rate would likely remain the same. At most, a more progressive Chairman would presumably be more likely to support easing. In turn, this would generally support the stock market.

There is a wide range of potential candidates for the Fed Chair. A recent letter from Democrats calling for more diversity at the central bank and the Biden Administration’s history in appointments could help narrow down candidates.

At the moment, the top candidate is centrist Lael Brainard. Most notably, President Obama appointed her to the Fed’s board. And she is reportedly on good terms with her former “boss”, Janet Yellen.

She could be a “compromise” candidate with progressives who would prefer someone with a more aggressive regulatory career, such as Sarah Raskin.

Article by Orbex

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

22 Oct

Can Facebook’s Name Change Move The Stock?

By Orbex

– Social media was abuzz on Wednesday after The Verge broke a story that Facebook was planning to change its name as part of a rebranding strategy.

Technically, it wouldn’t be the first time that the company changed its name, since it originally started as “The Facebook”. But, there are implications here beyond just dropping an unnecessary article in front of a proper noun.

Little is known about the branding change beyond what The Verge reported, and Facebook steadfastly refuses to comment on it.

Speculation has been rampant throughout the media, with some suggesting it’s about Zuckerberg trying to get away from the latest bad press.

The initial reporting suggested it had more to do with the company’s move towards being instrumental in driving the so-called “metaverse”. That speculation is fun and all, but what does it mean for the stock price?

What’s really going on

The markets were little impressed by the disclosure.

Facebook shares had moved up just over $324/shr at the start of the week to just under $340/shr before the article from The Verge came out. Since then, trading has been flat and there is little to trade on.

The reality is that Facebook is unlikely to rebrand its flagship product – the social media site. Rather, it’s likely to be a rebranding of its holding company.

Facebook inc owns a series of other ancillary properties, including Instagram, WhatsApp, and the major driver behind the change, Oculus VR. This could be similar to how “google” rebranded to Alphabet as the parent company, but the search engine remained the same.

If the Facebook social media platform isn’t going to change its name, it rather suggests that the move has little to do with the image issues that the platform has been facing recently.

Towards a new horizon

Zuckerberg has been a long proponent of the “metaverse”. The idea behind this is that people can connect across platforms with a single account, and layer on top of real-world experiences with Augmented Reality.

So, basically, a more sophisticated version of Google Glass (what happened to that, by the way?). The concept was illustrated in the movie Ready Player One.

Recently, Facebook announced they were hiring as many as 10k new people to flesh out the metaverse. Currently, these applications are in trial phases, but are under the umbrella name of “Horizon”.

Horizon Workplace, for example, competes with Zoom and other virtual meeting apps. That’s where the speculation that the parent company could be renamed “Horizon” stems from.

Aesthetics or a foundational change?

At the bottom of the issue is the question of the future of the company.

Facebook is no longer the up-and-coming platform, and with over 2,4 billion users, it might have reached its capacity. Pushing towards the metaverse might be an exciting opportunity, with a lot of potential for new revenue.

Nonetheless, it also has substantial risks, since it’s still a relatively unknown concept. And it has never been done before.

Zuckerberg will discuss the new name at the company’s annual Connect meeting but might announce the new name sooner. The name is likely to not bother investors, but it could mark an inflection point for Facebook.

How much capital will Zuckerberg throw behind this new direction for the business? And when can investors see a bump up in EPS?

These will likely be the defining factors for whether the market responds positively or not to the name change.

Article by Orbex

Financial News Stock Market News

22 Oct

EURUSD Impulse Likely To End At 1.2268

By Orbex

EURUSD eyes the development of a large bullish impulse. This impulse consists of intermediate sub-waves (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). Most likely, the construction of an intermediate correction (4) has recently ended. This has a complex internal structure of a triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z of the minor degree.

After the completion of the intermediate correction (4), the market moved higher. The development of an intermediate impulse wave (5) has begun. This consists of sub-waves 1-2-3-4-5, as shown on the chart.

Most likely, in the near future, the price in sub-wave 3 will rise to a high of 1.2268. This was marked by the minor intervening wave X.

Let’s consider an alternative scenario, where the formation of an intermediate correction (4) has not ended. Not so long ago, the market completed the formation of the minute intervening wave ⓧ, which is part of the minor wave Z.

To complete the minor wave Z, a minute wave ⓩ is necessary. Most likely, it will take the form of a minuette simple zigzag (a)-(b)-(c), as shown on the chart. Correction (b) may soon come to an end, after which the development of impulse (c) will begin.

Thus, in the short term, we could expect the market to move down near 1.1353. At that level, minute wave ⓩ will be at 100% of wave ⓨ.

Article by Orbex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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