InvestMacro

Gold Starts the Week on the Upside as Investors Weigh Trump’s Tariff Threat

The price of gold climbed to $3,350 per troy ounce on Monday, marking its second consecutive session of gains amid growing investor unease over Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that 1 August would serve as a strict deadline for implementing so-called ‘mirror duties’, though negotiations could extend beyond that date. He indicated that a base tariff of 10% might apply to smaller trading partners.

Earlier in July, Trump notified more than twenty trading partners of new tariff rates, with some items facing levies as high as 40%.

However, last week’s robust US economic data has tempered expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, thereby capping gold’s upside potential for now.

Investors are now focused on upcoming speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Michelle Bowman, seeking fresh signals on the future direction of monetary policy.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is continuing its upward movement towards $3,384. Today, we anticipate the pair will reach this level before undergoing a corrective pullback to $3,333. The market is effectively forming a broad consolidation range around $3,344.

A breakout above this range could extend gains toward $3,494. Conversely, a downside breach may trigger a decline toward $3,235. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD is consolidating around $3,333, having briefly declined to $3,310. The current structure suggests a fresh upward wave towards at least $3,390, followed by a retest of $3,333 from above. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and rising towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold remains bullish in the short term, driven by tariff-related uncertainty, though expectations regarding Fed policy may limit further gains. Traders should monitor key resistance at $3,384 and support at $3,333 for directional cues.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

19 Jul

Euro Bets hit 83-week high, US Dollar Index Speculator Bets gain for 3rd Week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were decisively lower this week as two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (7,625 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (321 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-24,798 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-12,573 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-4,956 contracts), the British Pound (-4,003 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,486 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,286 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-605 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-441 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-50 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Euro Bets hit 83-week high, US Dollar Index Speculator Bets gain for 3rd Week

Highlighting the week for the currency markets this week was the Euro bets rising higher as well as a modest US Dollar Index comeback over the past three weeks.

The biggest mover with gains in speculative bets was the Euro which advanced for a second straight week and has now risen for eight out of the past ten weeks (for a 10-week improvement by +52,502 contracts). These gains have pushed the net speculator standing (currently at +128,221 contracts) to the highest level in 83-weeks, dating back to December 2023.

The US Dollar Index was the only other gainer in speculative bets on the week and the USD positions have risen for three straight weeks. Despite these gains, the US Dollar Index standing still remains in a small bearish position currently at -3,665 net contracts.

Elsewhere, the Brazilian Real saw a big drop in speculative positions by almost -25,000 contracts. The Brazilian Real positioning has been up and down over the last 10 weeks with big gains and big retreats. Currently, the Brazilian Real still has a positive net speculative position of almost +25,000 contracts.

The Japanese Yen saw another fall in speculator bets this week, with its overall net position standing at +103,582 contracts. This is down from the all-time high that was reached in April near +180,000 contracts. The Yen position has been clearly softening but still remains historically bullish with contracts over +100,000.

FX Price Changes this week

Overall, the Forex markets were pretty subdued in price changes for the week. The US Dollar Index was the only riser on the week and edged higher for a second week, up by approximately 0.70%. The Australian Dollar was the biggest decliner with a fall by over -1% on the week while the Japanese Yen was close to a -1% decline followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which fell by almost -0.75%.

The US Dollar Index has made some gains over the last two weeks but prices stalled out around 98.60 on the upside this week and settled back down to end the week at 98.20. The U.S. Dollar Index is still down by over 10% since the beginning of the year and remains under that 100.00 psychological price level.

The Japanese Yen’s price uptrend has stalled and the currency has now fallen for three straight weeks (vs the USD). Meanwhile, the other currencies like the Euro, British Pound Sterling, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso and the Australian Dollar all saw slight declines on the week but still trade close to their highest levels of the year.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (79 percent) and the EuroFX (78 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (69 percent), Brazilian Real (64 percent) and the Swiss Franc (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Bitcoin (0 percent) and the US Dollar Index (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (23 percent) and the British Pound (46 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (77.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (46.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (79.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (82.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (55.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (55.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (54.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (55.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (68.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (70.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (54.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (56.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (64.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (84.3 percent)
Bitcoin (0.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.1 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (32 percent) and the EuroFX (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (15 percent) and the Swiss Franc (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-9 percent), Australian Dollar (-8 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-9.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-8.4 percent)
EuroFX (17.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (15.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-2.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-1.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (14.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-9.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (31.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (33.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-3.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-5.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (1.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-3.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-3.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,986 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.2	37.5	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.6	24.9	10.9
– Net Position:	-3,665	4,422	-757
– Gross Longs:	16,262	13,186	3,065
– Gross Shorts:	19,927	8,764	3,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.1	95.4	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	6.9	11.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 128,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,625 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	55.0	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	77.5	5.1
– Net Position:	128,221	-184,215	55,994
– Gross Longs:	242,096	451,525	97,608
– Gross Shorts:	113,875	635,740	41,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.6	18.4	92.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.3	-15.7	1.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 29,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	26.7	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	46.7	14.0
– Net Position:	29,191	-37,481	8,290
– Gross Longs:	100,980	49,932	34,471
– Gross Shorts:	71,789	87,413	26,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	48.3	79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	4.8	-11.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 103,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	33.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	68.3	11.2
– Net Position:	103,582	-110,846	7,264
– Gross Longs:	165,444	108,744	43,283
– Gross Shorts:	61,862	219,590	36,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.2	23.0	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	16.3	-38.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -22,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	66.7	19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	35.7	20.3
– Net Position:	-22,637	23,016	-379
– Gross Longs:	9,959	49,559	14,677
– Gross Shorts:	32,596	26,543	15,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	37.0	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-4.7	-2.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -74,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,486 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	69.6	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.4	33.7	13.1
– Net Position:	-74,094	72,766	1,328
– Gross Longs:	21,924	141,093	27,836
– Gross Shorts:	96,018	68,327	26,508
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.8	44.5	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-16.0	10.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -74,919 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	64.5	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.9	16.3	14.4
– Net Position:	-74,919	72,528	2,391
– Gross Longs:	21,233	97,063	24,040
– Gross Shorts:	96,152	24,535	21,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	73.2	55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	6.8	1.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	38.2	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	47.8	9.7
– Net Position:	3,635	-4,003	368
– Gross Longs:	16,623	16,041	4,429
– Gross Shorts:	12,988	20,044	4,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.7	29.6	58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.6	-31.0	3.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.7	38.6	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	72.5	1.7
– Net Position:	50,122	-56,173	6,051
– Gross Longs:	92,332	63,981	8,820
– Gross Shorts:	42,210	120,154	2,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.3	45.3	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	5.5	19.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 24,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -24,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.9	30.4	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	59.9	0.9
– Net Position:	24,172	-28,068	3,896
– Gross Longs:	60,809	28,965	4,761
– Gross Shorts:	36,637	57,033	865
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	5.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.2	34.1	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	4.7	4.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -50 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,436 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	7.3	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.5	1.1	3.4
– Net Position:	-2,486	1,927	559
– Gross Longs:	24,282	2,287	1,629
– Gross Shorts:	26,768	360	1,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	6.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.5	66.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	-0.5	10.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

19 Jul

Speculator Extremes: Nasdaq, Silver & Lean Hogs lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 15th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level now at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a rise of 31 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position registered 34,892 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 3,681 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number two in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -2 points this week. The overall speculator position was 59,448 net contracts this week with a small increase by 927 contracts in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in next this week in the extreme standings as the Lean Hogs speculator level resides at 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a rise of 12 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 82,803 net contracts this week with a change of -8,097 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position shows up next in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level sits at a 88 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -4 points this week.

The speculator position was -873 net contracts this week with a drop by -3,971 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top scores in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 85 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change this week.

The speculator position was -228,618 net contracts this week with a decline of -5,794 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -4 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,486 net contracts this week with a dip of -50 contracts in the speculator bets. With the Bitcoin price hitting all-time highs, the weak speculator positioning indicates that speculators may be hedging contracts in the futures market to protect themselves from price declines.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the 5-Year speculator level is at just 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -5 points this week. The speculator position was -2,505,528 net contracts this week with a rise of 11,259 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -10 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -79,742 net contracts this week with an increase by 5,859 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Sugar speculator level is at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -52,099 net contracts this week with a boost of 8,352 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Next, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The USD Index speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -3,665 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 321 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year

Finally, the Ultra 10-Year speculator position comes in as the next most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at just a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -2 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -379,116 net contracts this week with a jump of 29,162 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Metals Opinions

19 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Gold leads strong Metals Markets Positions

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (10,147 contracts), Palladium (1,153 contracts), Copper (1,120 contracts), Silver (927 contracts) and Steel (187 contracts) also showing positive weeks. The market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Platinum (-1,472 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold leads strong Metals Markets Positions

Gold led the market this week in terms of rising speculator positions, with the Gold price continuing to trade near its all-time high levels. This week, it closed a little below $3,360 and is still in an uptrend.

On the downside, Platinum was the only market to see a decline on the week, with a modest -1,472 contract decline. Platinum has also been a strong mover in the markets and is trading exceptionally higher since May, with a rise of almost 45% in just the past few months as the price has taken off.

Overall, the only metals market that still has a negative speculator level is Palladium at -3,581 contracts. Despite this bearish position, Palladium prices have also been on the rise, not as quite as sharp as the other metals but has started an upward move and risen to levels not seen since 2023.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Palladium

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (90 percent) and Palladium (78 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (73 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (57.3 percent)
Silver (90.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (89.2 percent)
Copper (71.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (70.1 percent)
Platinum (61.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (65.1 percent)
Palladium (77.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (68.9 percent)
Steel (73.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.3 percent)

Palladium & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (28 percent) and Copper (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-2 percent) joining as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (9.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.9 percent)
Silver (-1.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (6.9 percent)
Copper (15.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (15.9 percent)
Platinum (-1.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-10.8 percent)
Palladium (27.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.0 percent)
Steel (11.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 213,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 202,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.2	16.9	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	72.8	4.3
– Net Position:	213,115	-250,688	37,573
– Gross Longs:	270,227	75,989	56,976
– Gross Shorts:	57,112	326,677	19,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.2	32.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-10.8	15.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,448 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.6	20.7	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	67.1	7.1
– Net Position:	59,448	-79,648	20,200
– Gross Longs:	85,022	35,466	32,421
– Gross Shorts:	25,574	115,114	12,221
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.3	6.9	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-0.6	8.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,604 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	28.2	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	46.9	6.5
– Net Position:	40,724	-42,025	1,301
– Gross Longs:	75,423	63,262	15,789
– Gross Shorts:	34,699	105,287	14,488
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.2	34.2	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-12.9	-9.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 19,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.2	21.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	46.3	7.2
– Net Position:	19,302	-22,849	3,547
– Gross Longs:	55,186	19,611	10,187
– Gross Shorts:	35,884	42,460	6,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	41.7	39.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	0.9	4.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	35.0	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.0	22.9	9.4
– Net Position:	-3,581	2,402	1,179
– Gross Longs:	8,344	6,945	3,042
– Gross Shorts:	11,925	4,543	1,863
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.6	15.6	81.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.9	-31.3	17.8

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	68.9	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	71.4	0.7
– Net Position:	438	-670	232
– Gross Longs:	6,700	18,299	427
– Gross Shorts:	6,262	18,969	195
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	26.8	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-12.1	15.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

19 Jul

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (156,120 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (68,202 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (29,162 contracts), the Fed Funds (20,490 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-33,727 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-21,386 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (11,259 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-5,794 contracts), and the SOFR 1-Month (-1,100 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The 3-month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) contracts were the leaders in the bond market for positive changes this week, gaining by over 150,000 positions. This market represents a short-term bond utilized by banks, broker-dealers and other entities and consistently has the highest open interest on a weekly basis.

On the other hand, the 2-year bond experienced the most significant decline this week, with a decrease of over -30,000 contracts.

Overall, most of the bond contract prices, ranging from the 2-year to the long treasury bonds, are trading within the same range that they have been for the past couple of years. While they are down from their 2020 levels, they continue to be in a holding pattern for the recent price history.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (1 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (64.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (60.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (15.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (39.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (32.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (38.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (45.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (85.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (87.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (31.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (32.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (35.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (27.0 percent)

Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (37 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 1-Month (-32 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (-11 percent), the US Treasury Bonds (-10 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (36.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (55.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (-11.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-10.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-5.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-8.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (-7.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-1.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-27.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-9.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-19.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-31.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-48.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (21.3 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 54,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 20,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,254 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	61.7	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	64.5	2.2
– Net Position:	54,744	-60,193	5,449
– Gross Longs:	437,919	1,318,062	51,540
– Gross Shorts:	383,175	1,378,255	46,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.7	31.1	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.8	-35.2	-8.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -487,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 156,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -643,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	60.0	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	56.1	0.4
– Net Position:	-487,148	442,642	44,506
– Gross Longs:	1,394,554	6,835,065	90,452
– Gross Shorts:	1,881,702	6,392,423	45,946
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	62.5	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.9	-24.2	12.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -149,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	69.7	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	59.5	0.2
– Net Position:	-149,007	145,500	3,507
– Gross Longs:	151,257	991,715	5,958
– Gross Shorts:	300,264	846,215	2,451
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	67.3	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.6	29.7	15.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,299,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -33,727 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,266,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	77.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	50.8	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,299,860	1,174,486	125,374
– Gross Longs:	600,084	3,389,554	247,372
– Gross Shorts:	1,899,944	2,215,068	121,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	86.4	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	12.8	1.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,505,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,516,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	84.4	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	51.0	3.8
– Net Position:	-2,505,528	2,344,691	160,837
– Gross Longs:	487,008	5,932,240	430,351
– Gross Shorts:	2,992,536	3,587,549	269,514
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.5	100.0	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	6.3	-2.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -772,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 68,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -840,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	77.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	63.5	7.1
– Net Position:	-772,377	686,019	86,358
– Gross Longs:	572,071	3,797,640	435,018
– Gross Shorts:	1,344,448	3,111,621	348,660
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	57.9	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	7.3	4.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -379,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 29,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -408,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	79.1	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	60.8	11.9
– Net Position:	-379,116	443,999	-64,883
– Gross Longs:	255,630	1,913,429	223,664
– Gross Shorts:	634,746	1,469,430	288,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.3	93.1	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-0.1	6.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -130,144 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,758 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	77.9	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	74.9	8.3
– Net Position:	-130,144	53,908	76,236
– Gross Longs:	145,115	1,405,838	226,498
– Gross Shorts:	275,259	1,351,930	150,262
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	54.6	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	11.4	-10.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -228,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -222,824 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	82.0	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	69.9	9.6
– Net Position:	-228,618	238,681	-10,063
– Gross Longs:	147,388	1,610,288	179,361
– Gross Shorts:	376,006	1,371,607	189,424
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.4	33.5	4.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	3.2	-8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

19 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Corn & Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (12,305 contracts) with Sugar (8,352 contracts), Soybean Meal (5,859 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,963 contracts), Cotton (4,662 contracts), Live Cattle (3,123 contracts) and Coffee (2,212 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-22,774 contracts), Lean Hogs (-8,097 contracts), Wheat (-3,681 contracts) and with Cocoa (-761 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

The biggest positive mover this week was Corn, with a gain of over 12,000 contracts. Although Corn saw higher bets this week, overall the position has been in an extreme bearish level compared to the last three years. The corn price in the markets has been on the decline and has been touching the lowest levels in a year.

On the downside, Soybeans saw the biggest retreat this week, with a decrease of over 20,000 contracts. Soybean prices have also been lower over the last couple of years, and in fact, are almost 40% off the highs from 2022.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (90 percent) and Live Cattle (81 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (77 percent), Coffee (56 percent) and Soybeans (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (3 percent), Sugar (4 percent) and Corn (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (16.9 percent)
Sugar (4.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.9 percent)
Coffee (56.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.9 percent)
Soybeans (54.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (60.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (77.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.5 percent)
Live Cattle (81.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (89.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (95.9 percent)
Cotton (22.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.7 percent)
Cocoa (22.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (22.8 percent)
Wheat (42.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (45.5 percent)

Wheat & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (26 percent) and Soybean Oil (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (12 percent) and Cotton (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-11 percent), Soybean Meal (-10 percent) and Cocoa (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-6.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.5 percent)
Sugar (-13.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-23.1 percent)
Coffee (-3.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-11.2 percent)
Soybeans (-11.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (12.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-1.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-13.8 percent)
Live Cattle (1.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.3 percent)
Cotton (4.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.2 percent)
Cocoa (-7.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-8.7 percent)
Wheat (25.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (29.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -129,457 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -141,762 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	44.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	33.5	11.5
– Net Position:	-129,457	157,267	-27,810
– Gross Longs:	293,548	649,577	141,147
– Gross Shorts:	423,005	492,310	168,957
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	81.0	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	8.0	-4.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	51.8	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	44.2	8.7
– Net Position:	-52,099	65,399	-13,300
– Gross Longs:	204,179	448,590	62,405
– Gross Shorts:	256,278	383,191	75,705
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	97.4	2.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	13.3	-8.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	41.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	62.7	4.0
– Net Position:	31,133	-31,971	838
– Gross Longs:	48,940	62,472	6,921
– Gross Shorts:	17,807	94,443	6,083
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	46.4	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	4.9	-20.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -22,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	51.7	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	51.7	7.1
– Net Position:	15,294	-82	-15,212
– Gross Longs:	186,780	455,507	47,563
– Gross Shorts:	171,486	455,589	62,775
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.4	44.0	72.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	12.0	0.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,963 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	45.3	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	57.7	4.4
– Net Position:	64,125	-76,481	12,356
– Gross Longs:	135,739	279,001	39,591
– Gross Shorts:	71,614	355,482	27,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	22.6	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-14.6	34.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -79,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	50.4	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	42.1	5.3
– Net Position:	-79,742	55,787	23,955
– Gross Longs:	128,060	340,589	59,734
– Gross Shorts:	207,802	284,802	35,779
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.7	97.5	77.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	9.8	-0.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 104,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	28.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	49.6	13.4
– Net Position:	104,445	-81,860	-22,585
– Gross Longs:	194,938	114,273	30,461
– Gross Shorts:	90,493	196,133	53,046
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.0	22.6	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	1.6	-8.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 82,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.9	28.1	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	50.0	7.6
– Net Position:	82,803	-77,017	-5,786
– Gross Longs:	157,623	98,669	21,044
– Gross Shorts:	74,820	175,686	26,830
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.8	9.9	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-11.8	-9.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	47.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.0	35.7	4.9
– Net Position:	-25,083	24,866	217
– Gross Longs:	63,934	100,515	10,668
– Gross Shorts:	89,017	75,649	10,451
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	78.9	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-4.9	10.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 11,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -761 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	41.2	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	57.9	7.1
– Net Position:	11,823	-16,021	4,198
– Gross Longs:	26,360	39,587	11,035
– Gross Shorts:	14,537	55,608	6,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	77.6	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	9.8	-21.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,840 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	37.5	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	20.2	8.7
– Net Position:	-65,521	71,099	-5,578
– Gross Longs:	117,724	154,773	30,534
– Gross Shorts:	183,245	83,674	36,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	62.6	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.5	-22.3	-38.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

18 Jul

The US has passed a law on stablecoins. Escalating tensions in the Middle East are once again supporting oil prices

By JustMarkets

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 0.52%. The S&P 500 (US500) Index rose by 0.54%. The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed higher by 0.75%. The US stocks rose on Thursday as strong earnings and economic data helped major indices reach new record highs. The US retail sales rose by 0.6% in June, exceeding expectations and underscoring the resilience of consumer spending despite ongoing tariff issues. Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, the lowest level in three months, bolstering confidence in the strength of the labor market. Shares of United Airlines and PepsiCo rose by 3.1% and 7.4%, respectively. TSMC shares added 3.9% on record profits, boosting chipmakers including Nvidia (+0.9%) and Marvell (+1.6%) and lifting sentiment across the chip sector ahead of Netflix’s quarterly results, due to be released after the close.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.37 per US dollar, its lowest level since early June. The broad-based recovery of the US dollar, driven by rising US retail sales, unexpectedly low weekly jobless claims, and renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates longer, put pressure on the CAD.

On Friday, Bitcoin rose above $120,000, just shy of the record high reached earlier in the week, as markets reacted to the passage of the first major digital assets law in the US. The House of Representatives approved the bill on Thursday after the Senate voted in favor of it earlier, and President Donald Trump is expected to sign it later in the day. The legislation establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins — digital tokens backed by assets such as the US dollar — marking a key milestone after years of lobbying by the industry. Over the past year, Bitcoin has risen nearly 30% thanks to optimism about regulatory progress and growing institutional demand through ETFs.

European stock markets were mostly higher yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.51%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.29%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.78%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.52%.

European stocks closed sharply higher on Thursday, erasing the losses of the last three sessions, as markets assessed a number of key corporate indicators and revised their outlook for European trade. Consumer price inflation in the Eurozone in June 2025 was confirmed at 2% year-on-year, up from May’s eight-month low of 1.9% and in line with the European Central Bank’s official target. Inflation in the services sector accelerated to 3.3% from May’s three-year low of 3.2%. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices, remained at 2.3%, the lowest since January 2022.

WTI oil prices rose by 1.7% to $67.5 per barrel on Thursday, ending a three-day losing streak as low inventories and renewed tensions in the Middle East supported the market. According to the latest data, US crude oil inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week, significantly exceeding previous expectations and signaling a reduction in supply. Meanwhile, drone attacks on oil fields in Iraqi Kurdistan led to a shutdown and reduction in production of 150,000 barrels per day. Ongoing instability in the region, including recent Israeli strikes in Syria, also heightened market concerns.

Natural gas prices (XNG/USD) in the US are holding at $3.56/MMBtu, the highest in three weeks, due to increased demand for cooling in hotter-than-usual weather. Power generators are burning more gas to meet air conditioning needs. In addition, projections show that high temperatures will continue in the lower 48 states until early August, with the peak of the summer heat expected next week.

Asian markets were mostly up on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.60%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.08%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.90%.

Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, slightly higher than the 4.4% growth in the previous period. The growth was driven by an acceleration in agricultural activity, which grew by 2% compared to 0.6% growth. Growth in the services sector also accelerated to 5.3% from 5%, supported by positive performance across all subsectors.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,297.36 +33.66 (+0.54%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,484.49 +229.71 (+0.52%)

DAX (DE40) 24,370.93 +361.55 (+1.51%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,972.64 +46.09 (+0.52%)

USD Index 98.65 +0.26 (+0.26%)

News feed for: 2025.07.18

Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Michigan Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

18 Jul

Week Ahead: Alphabet & Tesla in focus as “MAG 7” earnings kick off

By ForexTime

2 of ‘Magnificent 7’ set to publish earnings on Wednesday
Alphabet ↑ 4% month-to-date, 11% away from ATH
Tesla ↓ 21% year-to-date
Alphabet: Shares could move 5.3% ↑ or ↓ post earnings
Tesla: Shares could move 5.6% ↑ or ↓ post earnings

The week ahead is stacked with high-impact events and corporate earnings from the largest companies in the world:

Sunday, 20th July

JP225: Japan upper house election

Monday, 21st July

CN50: China loan prime rates
NZD: New Zealand CPI
UK100: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer speech
USDInd: US Conference Board leading index

Tuesday, 22nd July

AUD: RBA meeting minutes
NZD: New Zealand trade
NGN: Nigeria rate decision
TWN: Taiwan export orders, jobless rate
US500: US Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech

Wednesday, 23rd July

EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
TWN: Taiwan industrial production
USDInd: US existing home sales
NAS100: Alphabet, Tesla earnings
President Donald Trump speech on A.I.

Thursday, 24th July

CAD: Canada retail sales
EUR: ECB rate decision, Germany PMI & Consumer confidence
JPY: Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
UK100: UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Gfk Consumer Confidence
US500: Initial jobless claims, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Intel earnings

Friday, 25th July

GER40: Germany IFO business climate, Volkswagen earnings
UK100: UK retail sales
EUR: ECB survey of professional forecasters
JPY: Japan Tokyo CPI
SG20: Singapore industrial production

Earnings season is in full swing with US banks reporting strong results. Next up will be results from big tech companies, which may inject fresh volatility into US equity markets.

Two of the so-called ‘Magnificent 7’ tech titans will be under the spotlight.

1) Alphabet

Alphabet, the parent company of Google reports its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday 23rd July after US markets close.

Its shares gained 14% in Q2 amid strong AI product demand and growth in the cloud business. However, bulls may need a fresh catalyst to push Alphabet’s year-to-date gains out of the red.

This could come in the form of strong earnings and robust advertising revenue growth.

Beyond earnings, updates on its cloud, ad business and AI innovations will be in focus.

Markets are forecasting a 5.3% move, either up or down, for Alphabet stocks post earnings.

2) Tesla

Tesla is also set to release its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday after the close of US trading.

It’s been a rough year for the EV maker thanks to the political drama between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Earlier this month, Trump threatened to withdraw government subsidies from Elon Musk’s companies – further weighing on Tesla shares.

Tesla is down over 20% year-to-date and could extend losses if its latest quarterly results are below market expectations.

Markets are forecasting a 5.6% move, either up or down, for Tesla stocks post-earnings.

What does this mean for FXTM’s NAS100

FXTM’s NAS100 tracks the underlying benchmark Nasdaq 100 index.
Alphabet and Tesla are part of the top 10 constituents, making up just over 10% of its weight.
The index is up 10% since the start of 2025, recently hitting a fresh all-time high above 23100.
Key levels of interest can be found at 23500, 23000 & 22600.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

18 Jul

Gold Ends the Week in Decline

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold remained below $3,340 per ounce this week, on track to close in negative territory for the first time in three weeks. The downward pressure followed stronger-than-expected US economic data, which reduced expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

June’s retail sales significantly outperformed forecasts, while initial jobless claims dropped to a three-month low – further evidence of the US economy’s resilience despite ongoing trade tensions.

In response, Adriana Kugler, a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, suggested that maintaining the current interest rate in the near term would be prudent. Meanwhile, Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, still anticipates two rate cuts before year-end.

Gold continues to benefit from demand for defensive assets amid escalating trade and geopolitical risks. Former US President Donald Trump has announced plans to notify more than 150 trading partners of impending tariffs, heightening uncertainty in global trade.

Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions worldwide reinforce gold’s appeal as a hedge against instability, thereby ensuring its role as a key tool for wealth preservation.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating around $3,344 on the H4 chart, with the current range extending downward to $3,312. Today, prices have retested $3,344, and we anticipate further consolidation near this level.

Bullish scenario: a breakout above $3,344 could trigger an upward wave towards $3,384
Bearish scenario: a downward breakout may lead to a decline towards $3,235

The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market completed a decline wave to $3,310 before rebounding to $3,344, effectively returning to the consolidation range’s midpoint. Currently, trading lacks a clear directional bias, with equal potential for further gains or losses.

Upside potential: a breakout above $3,344 may extend gains towards $3,384
Downside risk: a drop below the range could see a downward wave towards $3,235

The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line has risen from 20 and is now trending upward towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold faces short-term bearish pressure from robust US economic data, but long-term support persists due to trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks. Traders should monitor key technical levels for breakout opportunities in either direction.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

17 Jul

EUR/USD Under Pressure Amid Strong US Dollar Sentiment

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair has dipped back into negative territory, trading at 1.1615 as the US dollar regains ground following yesterday’s losses.

Market sentiment was initially rattled by reports suggesting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could be dismissed. Although Donald Trump later described these rumours as “unlikely”, the speculation reignited concerns over the central bank’s independence.

On the macroeconomic front, weaker-than-expected US producer inflation data added to the case for potential Fed rate cuts later this year. June’s price index remained flat, contrary to forecasts of a modest rise.

Traders now await retail sales figures, which could provide further insight into the strength of US domestic demand.

Meanwhile, trade tensions persist as Trump reaffirmed plans to maintain 25% tariffs on Japanese imports while hinting at a potential new trade deal with India. Earlier in the week, he also signalled progress in negotiations with Indonesia. These developments suggest the White House is balancing its hardline trade stance with efforts to engage Asian partners.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD pair has formed a consolidation range following the breakdown from the growth channel at 1.1675 and has subsequently completed a downward move towards the local target of 1.1562. A correction back to the 1.1720 level has also taken place. At present, a new wave of decline is developing towards 1.1520. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, as its signal line is below zero and pointing firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the EUR/USD pair has executed a downward impulse to 1.1610, followed by a correction to 1.1658. Today, a tight consolidation range is expected to form around 1.1620. If the pair breaks lower from this range, a move towards 1.1585 becomes likely, with the potential for further downside continuation to 1.1520. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator: its signal line lies below 50 and is heading sharply lower towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains under pressure amid dollar strength, with technical indicators supporting further downside potential. Market focus now shifts to upcoming US retail sales data and evolving trade dynamics.

Disclaimer

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