InvestMacro

Inflation in China remained flat. Nvidia and AMD will share revenue from chip sales to China with the US government

The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.47% on Friday (weekly gain +1.03%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.78% (weekly gain of +1.88%), while the Nasdaq (US100) finished the day 0.95% higher (weekly gain of +2.72%). Tech stocks led the rally, with Apple rising by 4.2% after announcing a $600 billion investment plan, which boosted the Nasdaq. Investor optimism was fueled by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts following President Trump’s nomination of Steven Mnuchin to the Fed Board, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy despite ongoing concerns about new tariffs on imports from several countries. Tesla shares rose by 2.3% despite the dissolution of its Dojo team, and Intel was up 0.9% after its CEO received board support following calls for his resignation from Trump.

Nvidia and AMD have agreed to a deal with the US government to share 15% of the revenue from certain chip sales to China in exchange for export licenses for Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 chips. This unprecedented agreement reflects the White House’s strategic use of trade exceptions amid ongoing tariff pressure. President Trump’s recent threat to impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports unless companies “build in the United States” adds urgency to such agreements.

The Canadian dollar fell below $1.37 against the US dollar as weaker domestic employment data and looming trade factors undermined previous gains. A Statistics Canada report showing the country lost 41,000 jobs in July, far worse than the 13,500 gain analysts predicted, and a static unemployment rate of 6.9% heightened concerns about domestic demand and fueled expectations for a more dovish Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, President Trump’s decision to implement 35% tariffs on Canadian aluminum and impending duties on auto parts have added to the pressure on the trade-exposed Canadian economy.

European stock markets were mixed on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.12% (weekly gain +2.72%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.44% (weekly gain +2.11%), Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.91% (weekly gain +4.55%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.06% (weekly gain +0.30%). European stocks ended the week with a strong rally, posting a sharp rise in the first week of August as markets continued to assess the outlook for the European economy amid uncertainty over US tariff levels and the ECB’s response. Banks continued to rise sharply, with BBVA, BNP Paribas, and UniCredit all gaining more than 2%. Siemens was up 2.2% after a volatile week, and Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Stellantis each added more than 2%, setting the pace for automakers. On the other hand, Rheinmetall lost 1.5% on reports that the US and Russia might agree on a ceasefire in Ukraine.

WTI crude oil prices were flat on Friday at $63.9 per barrel, holding near a two-month low and showing a weekly drop of more than 5% amid growing fears of higher US tariffs and a possible meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin. The recently implemented US tariffs, which took effect on Thursday, have intensified concerns about slowing economic growth and a potential decline in demand for crude oil. Meanwhile, news of a possible Trump-Putin summit raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, which could ease sanctions on Russia. However, analysts remain cautious, stressing that a breakthrough is unlikely as Putin is expected to demand territorial concessions while the US pushes for a ceasefire.

Silver fell to $38 per ounce on Monday, partially reversing last week’s gains, as investors took profits ahead of key US inflation data that could determine the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. Markets are increasingly betting on a Fed rate cut in September amid signs of a weakening labor market, with a possible subsequent move in December also being priced in. Fed official Michelle Bowman stated on Saturday that the latest weak jobs report reinforces her concerns about labor market volatility and strengthens her view that three rate cuts will likely be appropriate this year.

Asian markets were mostly higher last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 4.24%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 1.05%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.75%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 1.68%.

In July 2025, consumer prices in China were unchanged year-on-year, defying market expectations for a 0.1% decline and following a 0.1% increase in the prior month. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose to 0.8% y/y, the highest level in 17 months, after a 0.7% increase in June. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.4% in July, slightly above the 0.3% expectations and reversing a 0.1% decrease in June. This was the highest monthly inflation figure since January, partly attributed to recent extreme weather conditions, including heavy rainfall.

On Monday, the Australian dollar paused near the $0.652 mark as investors cautiously awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decision due on Tuesday. Markets broadly expect a 25-basis-point rate cut to 3.60% at the August meeting, following lower-than-expected second-quarter inflation and a rise in unemployment to a three-and-a-half-year high. This comes after the RBA’s unexpected decision in July to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.85%, citing a more balanced assessment of inflation risks and persistent labor market resilience.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,389.45 +49.45 (+0.78%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,175.61 +206.97 (+0.47%)

DAX (DE40) 24,162.86 −29.64 (−0.12%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,095.73 −5.04 (−0.06%)

USD Index 98.27 −0.14 (−0.14%)

News feed for: 2025.08.11

Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

11 Aug

Gold Weakens Amid Improved Risk Appetite

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold opened the week lower, slipping below 3,380 USD per troy ounce on Monday, as easing geopolitical tensions reduced demand for the metal as a safe-haven asset.

On Friday, US President Donald Trump announced plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on 15 August to negotiate a ceasefire. A successful outcome could diminish the likelihood of further US sanctions against Moscow.

Despite the decline, prices found some support from lingering trade risks and growing expectations of a Fed rate cut by year-end. Last Thursday, higher US tariffs on imports from several countries came into effect, prompting the affected trade partners to seek urgent concessions.

This week, investors will focus on key US economic data, including CPI and PPI inflation figures and retail sales, to gauge the Fed’s next policy moves.

Adding to market uncertainty, the White House’s stance on gold bullion tariffs remains unclear. Last week, the US government confirmed that gold imports are subject to duties, while upcoming inflation data could influence the Fed’s rate decision.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating broadly around 3,383 USD, with recent swings extending between 3,408 USD (upper bound) and 3,367 USD (lower bound). Today, we anticipate a rise towards 3,420 USD, potentially stretching to 3,425 USD, followed by a fresh downward wave targeting 3,345 USD. A break below this level could extend losses to 3,255 USD. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and points firmly upward.

H1 Chart:

The pair has completed an upward structure to 3,408 USD, with a subsequent correction to 3,368 USD. Today, we expect a rebound towards 3,393 USD, effectively marking the consolidation range. An upside breakout could propel prices towards 3,420 USD, while a downside breakout may trigger a decline to 3,313 USD. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view, with its signal line below 50 and trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure amid reduced safe-haven demand, although trade tensions and Fed rate cut expectations provide some support. Technically, the metal faces key resistance near 3,420 USD, with a bearish reversal likely upon failure to sustain momentum.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

09 Aug

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 3-Month High, British Pound Bets drop

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (11,377 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (676 contracts) also seeing a small positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-21,275 contracts), the EuroFX (-7,400 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,237 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-5,466 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,343 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,987 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,874 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,742 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-493 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 3-Month High, British Pound Bets drop

Highlighting the currency speculator positioning this week, the Mexican peso saw the most bullish rise through August 5th. This was the third straight week the Peso has seen improving speculator sentiment, and the fifth time out of the last six weeks speculator positions have risen for the Peso. This increase in sentiment has brought the Peso positions to their highest level in 13 weeks, with the current standing now at a total of +68,055 contracts.

Peso pricing against the US Dollar this week rose by approximately 1.55%. Over the last 30 days, the Peso is up by 1.34%, while over the last 90 days, the Peso is higher by 10%.

On the downside, the British Pound Sterling speculator positions fell sharply for the fourth straight week. Overall, the British Pound speculator positions have now fallen in seven out of the past eight weeks, for a total decline over that time by -84,937 contracts. These speculator reductions have taken the overall speculator position from +42,857 contracts on June 17th to this week’s level of -33,303 contracts. The overall standing has now been in a negative or bearish position for two consecutive weeks, marking the first bearish level since February of this year.

Denting the GBP’s speculator sentiment was the Bank of England’s interest rate reduction this week that took off 25 basis points. It was the fifth rate reduction since last August and brings the interest rate to 4%.

Prices this week: Bitcoin leads with 2.82% Gain

Overall, Bitcoin saw the highest weekly change with a gain of almost 3% over the last five days. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin is up by nearly 40%.

The Brazilian Real rose by 2.32% this week, followed by the Peso. The British Pound Sterling rose close to 1.5% for the week, while the Australian Dollar saw a higher exchange rate by just about 1%. The New Zealand Dollar increased by 0.68%. The Euro was higher by 0.63%. Rounding out the gaining currencies was the Canadian Dollar, with a quarter of a percent gain on the week.

Losing ground this week was the Japanese Yen, which fell about a quarter percent. The Swiss Franc fell by 0.39%, and the US Dollar index was down by half a percent on the week.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Euro

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Euro (73 percent) and the Japanese Yen (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (65 percent), Mexican Peso (63 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the British Pound (17 percent) and the Australian Dollar (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.4 percent)
EuroFX (72.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (75.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (73.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (75.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (52.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (52.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (17.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (58.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (62.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (57.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (64.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.0 percent)
Bitcoin (20.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (31.3 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (14 percent) and the Mexican Peso (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The British Pound (-32 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-16 percent), Japanese Yen (-14 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-2.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.6 percent)
EuroFX (1.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (8.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-32.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-26.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-11.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-13.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-4.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-7.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-8.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-0.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-16.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-22.5 percent)
Bitcoin (14.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	39.4	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.3	21.6	9.6
– Net Position:	-7,030	5,365	1,665
– Gross Longs:	11,399	11,847	4,540
– Gross Shorts:	18,429	6,482	2,875
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.1	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	-2.9	32.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 115,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.4	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	75.4	5.5
– Net Position:	115,959	-163,545	47,586
– Gross Longs:	247,357	453,569	92,215
– Gross Shorts:	131,398	617,114	44,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	25.5	74.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	0.3	-11.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	52.8	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	37.0	13.9
– Net Position:	-33,303	32,643	660
– Gross Longs:	65,635	108,854	29,306
– Gross Shorts:	98,938	76,211	28,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	77.4	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.2	31.7	-18.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of 82,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.5	40.5	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	66.4	9.5
– Net Position:	82,006	-87,341	5,335
– Gross Longs:	160,258	136,734	37,362
– Gross Shorts:	78,252	224,075	32,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	28.9	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	15.2	-22.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	75.8	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	34.3	22.3
– Net Position:	-27,377	33,113	-5,736
– Gross Longs:	6,806	60,532	12,062
– Gross Shorts:	34,183	27,419	17,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	53.5	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	20.1	-25.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -79,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	72.7	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.9	33.2	12.9
– Net Position:	-79,420	84,877	-5,457
– Gross Longs:	23,589	156,289	22,218
– Gross Shorts:	103,009	71,412	27,675
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	49.6	28.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	14.6	-23.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -83,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	67.3	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.6	17.0	12.7
– Net Position:	-83,560	82,545	1,015
– Gross Longs:	23,988	110,361	21,761
– Gross Shorts:	107,548	27,816	20,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.0	79.1	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	7.2	-2.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	57.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	44.9	10.6
– Net Position:	-4,833	6,159	-1,326
– Gross Longs:	11,085	27,755	3,780
– Gross Shorts:	15,918	21,596	5,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.9	41.1	36.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	11.3	-30.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 68,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.7	36.0	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	76.7	1.7
– Net Position:	68,055	-71,691	3,636
– Gross Longs:	105,231	63,351	6,628
– Gross Shorts:	37,176	135,042	2,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.5	37.4	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-8.2	-4.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	36.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	67.8	1.1
– Net Position:	24,598	-27,830	3,232
– Gross Longs:	51,209	32,730	4,179
– Gross Shorts:	26,611	60,560	947
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	34.3	39.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	16.3	-1.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.6	6.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	89.0	1.7	4.2
– Net Position:	-1,501	1,195	306
– Gross Longs:	23,039	1,660	1,460
– Gross Shorts:	24,540	465	1,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	83.2	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-11.1	-8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

09 Aug

Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Nasdaq & Palladium lead Top Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 5th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in at the top of the most extreme standings this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a dip by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 5,854 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -2,860 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in next this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq-Mini speculator level resides at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 27 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 33,836 net contracts this week with a small decrease of -1,118 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position takes the next position in the extreme standings this week with the Palladium speculator level sitting at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise of 16 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,335 net contracts this week with a drop of -482 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position slides in next in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 86 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -7 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -228,367 net contracts this week with a reduction of -11,554 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing of the week with the Sugar speculator level residing at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -76,972 net contracts this week with a reduction by -14,824 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in also tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,536,877 net contracts this week with a decline of -24,994 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position also comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the USD Index speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -7,030 net contracts this week with a drop of -2,874 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

Next, the WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fourth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The WTI Crude speculator level is currently at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -43 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 141,829 net contracts this week with a reduction of -14,194 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fifth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an edge lower by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -81,610 net contracts this week with a small increase of 1,061 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Stock Market News

09 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Gold Speculator Bets up higher for 5th time in 6 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold with a rise of 13,454 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-16,661 contracts), Silver (-8,749 contracts), Platinum (-3,906 contracts), Steel (-1,265 contracts) and with Palladium (-482 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Gold Speculator Bets rose for 5th time in 6 weeks

Gold speculator bets rose this week for the fifth time out of the last six weeks, and for the ninth time out of the last 12 weeks. The gold speculator bets have now been over +200,000 contracts in these last six weeks after a cool off in bets from April to June that saw just one week over +200,000 speculator positions.

The gold price was up 1.25% this week, while being up only two percent over the last 30 days and higher by just under nine percent over the last 90 days.

Elsewhere, silver was the highest mover on the week with a gain of almost 4%. Platinum followed with a gain over 2%. Platinum has been up by over 40% in the last 90 days. Copper came in at just below 1% for gains this week, while Steel fell 0.70% and Palladium took a big hit by almost 7% on the week, even though Palladium is up 20% in the last 90 days.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Palladium & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Palladium (87 percent) and Silver (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (70 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (70.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (65.1 percent)
Silver (79.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (90.3 percent)
Copper (52.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (68.0 percent)
Platinum (55.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (64.6 percent)
Palladium (86.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (90.6 percent)
Steel (64.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.8 percent)

Gold & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (16 percent) and Palladium (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Steel (7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-20 percent) and Silver (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-8 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (16.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.7 percent)
Silver (-15.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.7 percent)
Copper (-8.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.6 percent)
Platinum (-20.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-6.3 percent)
Palladium (16.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (25.5 percent)
Steel (6.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (13.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 237,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 223,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.0	16.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	76.6	4.3
– Net Position:	237,050	-270,146	33,096
– Gross Longs:	292,194	74,075	52,597
– Gross Shorts:	55,144	344,221	19,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.3 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.2	25.1	84.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-14.3	-8.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.2	23.2	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	67.9	5.9
– Net Position:	50,658	-72,228	21,570
– Gross Longs:	71,234	37,347	31,007
– Gross Shorts:	20,576	109,575	9,437
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.3	15.1	75.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.4	11.3	9.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 20,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,347 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	33.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	49.8	4.1
– Net Position:	20,686	-32,762	12,076
– Gross Longs:	54,929	65,903	20,148
– Gross Shorts:	34,243	98,665	8,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	42.2	90.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.1	-0.9	59.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,662 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,906 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,568 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.2	19.1	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	47.7	4.9
– Net Position:	16,662	-22,999	6,337
– Gross Longs:	46,067	15,414	10,274
– Gross Shorts:	29,405	38,413	3,937
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	41.4	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	15.9	16.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,335 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.3	34.1	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.5	30.5	6.4
– Net Position:	-2,335	701	1,634
– Gross Longs:	8,048	6,502	2,850
– Gross Shorts:	10,383	5,801	1,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.9	2.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.3	-20.3	21.8

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -92 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,173 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	73.8	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	74.3	0.9
– Net Position:	-92	-101	193
– Gross Longs:	4,039	15,607	387
– Gross Shorts:	4,131	15,708	194
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.0	36.2	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-7.1	6.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

09 Aug

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 1M, SOFR 3M & US Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 1M, SOFR 3M & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month (123,476 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (57,037 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (363 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-249,778 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-122,286 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-63,204 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-24,994 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-12,628 contracts) and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-11,554 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Prices lower to unchanged this week

This week, major U.S. bond prices were slightly lower across the board. The longer US Treasury bonds fell by a little more than half a percent. The 10-year bonds fell by less than half a percent, followed by the five-year, the fed funds, and the two-year which were trading virtually unchanged for the week.

The U.S. bond yields were also little changed this week, with the 20-year yield coming in around 4.83%, followed by the 10-year at 4.28%. The five-year is at 3.83%, the two-year is at 3.76%, while fed funds is right around 4.33%.

All of these yields are within the same respective ranges that have been trading for the last couple of years.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) and the Fed Funds (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (12.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (58.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (12.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (22.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (12.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (15.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (45.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (44.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (85.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (89.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (62.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (31.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (37.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (34.5 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (29 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-32 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-31 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (-8 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-32.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (6.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (-7.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-2.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (-3.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-3.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (-30.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-15.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-3.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-7.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-10.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (29.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-1.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (6.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (8.5 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -227,270 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -249,778 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	68.6	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	58.1	2.2
– Net Position:	-227,270	217,354	9,916
– Gross Longs:	261,534	1,412,579	54,234
– Gross Shorts:	488,804	1,195,225	44,318
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.6	81.6	75.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.2	32.9	-8.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -441,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 57,037 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -498,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	58.2	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	54.3	0.7
– Net Position:	-441,061	463,119	-22,058
– Gross Longs:	1,664,500	6,967,210	62,396
– Gross Shorts:	2,105,561	6,504,091	84,454
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.5	63.5	67.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-6.0	-3.4

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,184 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 123,476 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	66.1	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	64.2	0.3
– Net Position:	-25,184	24,066	1,118
– Gross Longs:	185,388	832,778	4,309
– Gross Shorts:	210,572	808,712	3,191
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.3	37.5	69.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-28.4	-7.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,325,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -122,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,203,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	79.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.1	53.6	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,325,523	1,192,903	132,620
– Gross Longs:	558,423	3,645,933	251,547
– Gross Shorts:	1,883,946	2,453,030	118,927
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.6	86.9	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	8.0	2.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,536,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -24,994 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,511,883 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	83.4	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	50.8	3.4
– Net Position:	-2,536,877	2,324,021	212,856
– Gross Longs:	507,247	5,947,099	458,407
– Gross Shorts:	3,044,124	3,623,078	245,551
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.6	90.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	5.1	-4.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -959,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -63,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -896,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	78.7	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	62.3	6.4
– Net Position:	-959,834	843,450	116,384
– Gross Longs:	544,016	4,037,361	442,063
– Gross Shorts:	1,503,850	3,193,911	325,679
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.1	79.3	78.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.6	36.6	6.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -359,622 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -346,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	77.5	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	60.8	11.6
– Net Position:	-359,622	410,592	-50,970
– Gross Longs:	299,620	1,904,035	234,010
– Gross Shorts:	659,242	1,493,443	284,980
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.1	84.1	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-1.7	-0.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -110,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,803 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	77.9	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	77.8	7.5
– Net Position:	-110,440	1,517	108,923
– Gross Longs:	116,997	1,371,668	241,556
– Gross Shorts:	227,437	1,370,151	132,633
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	39.4	90.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	-3.5	20.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -228,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -216,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	82.2	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	70.0	9.5
– Net Position:	-228,367	243,087	-14,720
– Gross Longs:	134,510	1,633,599	174,640
– Gross Shorts:	362,877	1,390,512	189,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.5	35.2	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	19.3	-32.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

09 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn, Soybean Meal & Cocoa

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (25,499 contracts) with Soybean Meal (1,061 contracts) and Cocoa (187 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-28,376 contracts), Sugar (-14,824 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,110 contracts), Wheat (-8,880 contracts), Cotton (-8,629 contracts), Lean Hogs (-1,051 contracts), Coffee (-588 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-255 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Coffee leads Price Changes

Leading the soft commodities markets this week in price changes was Coffee, with a gain of over five percent. Live Cattle also came in higher by over two percent. Lean Hogs were almost up by two percent, and Sugar was up by three quarters of one percent.

On the downside, Cocoa lost over six and a half percent from its price this week and has been down by over nine percent for the last 30 days. Soybean Oil was lower by 1.5 percent, Soybean Meal by just about one percent, while Corn and Soybeans were also down by a little over half a percent. Cotton and Wheat were mostly unchanged.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (83 percent), Lean Hogs (83 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (54 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Soybean Meal (2 percent), Cotton (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the and the Cocoa (20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (21.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.0 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.2 percent)
Coffee (54.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (54.8 percent)
Soybeans (40.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (47.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (83.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (89.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.6 percent)
Live Cattle (82.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (83.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (82.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (83.3 percent)
Cotton (16.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.5 percent)
Cocoa (20.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (20.0 percent)
Wheat (32.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (39.1 percent)

Soybean Oil & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (6 percent) and Corn (3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (0.2 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-16 percent), Sugar (-8 percent) and Wheat (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-3.6 percent)
Sugar (-8.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-4.2 percent)
Coffee (-1.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.9 percent)
Soybeans (-24.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-24.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (6.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (13.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-2.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-8.9 percent)
Live Cattle (0.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-2.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.7 percent)
Cotton (-2.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (5.9 percent)
Cocoa (-2.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-7.3 percent)
Wheat (-6.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (12.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -107,968 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,499 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -133,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	41.7	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	32.6	11.4
– Net Position:	-107,968	147,872	-39,904
– Gross Longs:	304,053	674,523	144,743
– Gross Shorts:	412,021	526,651	184,647
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.5	79.6	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	0.7	-31.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of -76,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	53.5	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	43.4	8.5
– Net Position:	-76,972	89,529	-12,557
– Gross Longs:	195,681	475,643	62,659
– Gross Shorts:	272,653	386,114	75,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	3.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	9.0	-11.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	39.1	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	57.4	4.2
– Net Position:	29,258	-29,818	560
– Gross Longs:	49,040	63,450	7,367
– Gross Shorts:	19,782	93,268	6,807
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.2	48.5	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	2.8	-18.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -39,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -28,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	53.4	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	46.9	7.7
– Net Position:	-39,160	54,893	-15,733
– Gross Longs:	156,793	454,917	49,527
– Gross Shorts:	195,953	400,024	65,260
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.5	58.9	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	26.3	-6.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 74,946 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,110 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	43.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	57.2	4.3
– Net Position:	74,946	-86,018	11,072
– Gross Longs:	145,207	269,368	38,074
– Gross Shorts:	70,261	355,386	27,002
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	17.7	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-6.4	5.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -81,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	51.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	42.3	5.1
– Net Position:	-81,610	63,890	17,720
– Gross Longs:	113,280	346,431	51,829
– Gross Shorts:	194,890	282,541	34,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.0	99.8	43.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	4.6	-35.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 106,375 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	28.7	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	50.4	13.6
– Net Position:	106,375	-83,729	-22,646
– Gross Longs:	185,524	111,147	30,020
– Gross Shorts:	79,149	194,876	52,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.9	20.3	17.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	3.9	-11.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 73,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.3	29.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	49.2	7.7
– Net Position:	73,138	-68,353	-4,785
– Gross Longs:	150,728	99,031	21,285
– Gross Shorts:	77,590	167,384	26,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.5	16.9	48.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	15.5	15.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -35,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,849 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	46.4	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.9	30.5	5.5
– Net Position:	-35,478	37,338	-1,860
– Gross Longs:	69,961	109,145	11,121
– Gross Shorts:	105,439	71,807	12,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.2	86.1	8.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	3.0	-6.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 10,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	42.3	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	56.3	7.3
– Net Position:	10,043	-13,330	3,287
– Gross Longs:	24,969	40,221	10,191
– Gross Shorts:	14,926	53,551	6,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.2	80.4	52.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	4.1	-12.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -78,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,685 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	36.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	20.4	8.0
– Net Position:	-78,565	80,870	-2,305
– Gross Longs:	132,500	181,531	37,218
– Gross Shorts:	211,065	100,661	39,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.0	71.4	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	4.6	13.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

08 Aug

EUR/USD Rises as the Dollar Struggles Under Tariff Pressures and Fed Uncertainty

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair edged higher on Friday, climbing to 1.1657, buoyed by expectations of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and growing concerns over the economic impact of new US tariffs.

Recent data revealed that jobless claims exceeded forecasts this week, further signalling a softening labour market following last week’s lacklustre employment report.

On the political front, attention remains fixed on potential shifts within the Fed. US President Donald Trump has nominated Stephen Miran, head of the Council of Economic Advisers, to replace Adriana Kugler on the Fed’s Board of Governors. Meanwhile, reports suggest Christopher Waller is emerging as a leading candidate for Fed Chair. These developments have reinforced market expectations of an imminent rate cut as early as September.

Adding to the dollar’s woes, new US retaliatory tariffs, ranging from 10% to 41%, came into effect at midnight on Thursday. This has stoked fears of economic headwinds, further dampening sentiment towards the greenback.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD saw a corrective move to 1.1698, followed by consolidation near the top of this correction. A break below 1.1611 could trigger a downward wave towards 1.1520, with potential for further declines to 1.1343. The MACD indicator supports this bearish scenario: its signal line remains above zero but has exited the histogram zone, suggesting a pullback towards lower levels.

H1 Chart:

The pair formed a downward impulse to 1.1611, followed by a rebound to 1.1679. The current consolidation phase appears set for a downward breakout, potentially initiating a fifth wave of decline towards 1.1520. A brief retest of 1.1611 (from below) may follow before another drop to 1.1444, with an eventual target of 1.1343. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view, with its signal line below 50 and trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains under upward pressure amid speculation about the Fed and concerns over tariffs, but technical indicators suggest a near-term bearish correction is likely.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Aug

Bank of Mexico cuts interest rate to 7.75%. Trump announces 100% tariff on imported microchips

By JustMarkets

On Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.51%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.08%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index (US100) closed higher by 0.35%. The US indices came under pressure on Thursday, as early gains faded amid renewed trade tensions. The Nasdaq 100 posted a modest gain, initially supported by semiconductor stocks after Trump announced a 100% tariff on imported microchips, excluding US manufacturers. However, sentiment quickly deteriorated due to broader trade concerns. Investors also reacted to reports that Fed Governor Christopher Waller may be Trump’s pick to lead the Federal Reserve, fueling expectations of a rate cut in September.

The Mexican peso weakened to 18.6 per US dollar after Banxico cut the overnight rate to 7.75%, reducing some of the carry appeal that had recently supported the currency. The move followed a drop in annual inflation from 4.51% to 3.51% and somewhat stronger economic growth in Q2. However, the Central Bank maintained a cautious tone, citing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks as potential inflation triggers via peso depreciation, or as threats to growth momentum. Meanwhile, Washington imposed new tariffs (25% on steel and 10% on aluminum from Mexico, with additional tariffs on auto parts set to take effect next week), posing further risks to export revenue and industrial output.

European stock markets mostly rose yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 1.12%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.97%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.06%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) declined by 0.69%.

On Thursday, WTI crude oil prices fell to $63.90 per barrel, marking a sixth consecutive day of losses, as hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the war in Ukraine weighed on prices. The Kremlin confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet US President Donald Trump in the coming days, their first summit since 2021, raising hopes for de-escalation. Meanwhile, Trump imposed new 25% tariffs on Indian goods over continued imports of Russian oil and signaled the possibility of further tariffs against China. Saudi Arabia also raised prices for September oil deliveries to Asian buyers for the second month in a row, citing tight supply and strong demand.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.65%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.31%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 0.69%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day down 0.14%.

Japan’s services PMI rose to 45.2 in July 2025 from 45.0 in June, the highest reading since February and the third consecutive monthly increase, though it came in slightly below the market expectation of 45.5. Meanwhile, the Economic Outlook Index climbed to a six-month high of 47.3 from 45.9 in June, supported by signs of an economic rebound, including expectations of stronger consumer demand, despite ongoing concerns about cost pressures and US trade policy uncertainty.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar held steady at USD 0.596, near a one-week high, supported by weakness in the US dollar. The greenback remained under pressure amid rising odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and concerns about the impact of new tariffs on the US economy. The kiwi also drew support from still-strong trade data out of China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, which showed July export growth exceeded expectations, offering some relief amid the fragile tariff truce between Beijing and Washington. However, domestic sentiment was dampened by recent labor market data indicating ongoing weakness, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may lower interest rates at its meeting later this month.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,340.00 −5.06 (−0.08%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,968.64 −224.48 (−0.51%)

DAX (DE40) 24,192.50 +268.14 (+1.12%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,100.77 −63.54 (−0.69%)

USD Index 98.09 −0.08 (−0.09%)

News feed for: 2025.08.08

Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

07 Aug

Oil prices fell below $65 per barrel. The RBA and RBNZ are likely to cut rates further in August

By JustMarkets

As of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.18%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.73%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed up by 1.21%. The US stocks rose as investors reacted to strong corporate earnings and a major announcement from Apple, which pledged to invest an additional $100 billion in US manufacturing. Despite positive earnings reports from companies like Disney and Uber, some stocks, such as AMD, Snap, and Super Micro Computer, plunged due to disappointing results. Investor sentiment was supported by rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, with odds climbing to over 93% following soft labor market data. However, trade tensions flared again after President Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods due to continued imports of Russian oil, adding uncertainty.

European stock markets mostly rose yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 0.33%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.18%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.90%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended 0.24% higher. The Frankfurt DAX closed higher at 23,924, marking its third consecutive session of gains as traders weighed corporate earnings and looming US tariffs. President Trump is expected to impose broad tariffs on August 7 against countries that have not concluded trade deals. While the EU and US are finalizing their agreement, 15% tariffs on EU goods will take effect tomorrow, with Trump warning of a possible increase to 35% if the promised European investments are not fulfilled. He also confirmed plans to introduce tariffs on pharmaceutical imports “within the next week or so.”

WTI crude oil prices reversed earlier gains on Wednesday and fell by 1.2% to $64.30 per barrel, marking the fifth consecutive decline and hitting a new six-week low. Prices initially rose on supply concerns following President Trump’s decree imposing 25% tariffs on Indian goods due to Russian oil imports. Temporary support also came from a larger-than-expected US crude inventory draw of 3 million barrels. However, gains were dampened after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that an announcement regarding potential sanctions against Russia could come later in the day, adding uncertainty to the market.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) climbed by 0.60%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dipped by 0.07%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) edged up 0.03%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed with a solid 0.84% gain.

The Australian dollar strengthened to USD 0.648 on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session, as rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in September boosted risk sentiment. Meanwhile, with little data expected this week, the Aussie may face headwinds as markets fully price in a 25 bp RBA rate cut to 3.60% on August 12.

The New Zealand dollar rose to USD 0.592 on Wednesday, rebounding from multi-week lows. However, the Kiwi’s upside may be limited by weaker-than-expected local employment data. New Zealand’s unemployment rate in Q2 rose to nearly a five-year high of 5.2%, slightly below expectations of 5.3%. This strengthened expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may cut rates at its upcoming August meeting. Markets currently price in a 90% chance of a 25 bp cut, with further easing to 2.75% expected by year-end or early next year. Additional concern comes from the Trump administration’s imposition of 15% tariffs on New Zealand exports starting August 7, which could place further pressure on the export-driven economy.

The offshore yuan remained stable around 7.18 per dollar on Thursday as investors digested the latest trade data. China’s trade surplus in July 2025 rose to $98.24 billion from $85.27 billion a year earlier. Export growth reached a three-month high of 7.2% year-over-year, significantly beating market expectations of 5.4%, mainly due to a temporary easing in tariff pressures ahead of the looming August deadline. Meanwhile, imports unexpectedly rose to an annual high, increasing 4.1% year-over-year, defying expectations for a 1.0% decline. In light of recent developments tied to a trade truce, President Donald Trump stated that the US and China are “very close” to extending the agreement set to expire on August 12.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,345.06 +45.87 (+0.73%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,193.12 +81.38 (+0.18%)

DAX (DE40) 23,924.36 +78.29 (+0.33%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,164.31 +21.58 (+0.24%)

USD Index 98.23 −0.55 (−0.55%)

News feed for: 2025.08.07

Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
New Zealand Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
US Initial Jobless Claims (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision at 22:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.