InvestMacro

Large Currency Speculators raise their Brazilian Real bullish bets to Record High

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data is the jump in bullish bets in the Brazilian Real currency futures contracts. Real speculators increased their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and by a total of +63,801 contracts over this four-week time-frame. This bullishness has taken the Real speculator level from -13,353 net positions on February 1st to +50,448 net positions this week. The current overall speculator standing has now climbed to the most bullish level on record, according to the CFTC data that goes back to the mid-1990’s and eclipsing the previous high set in 2017. The BRLUSD currency pair price has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year and has reached the highest levels since June just below the 0.2000 exchange rate.

The currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Brazil real (26,003 contracts), Mexican peso (25,553 contracts), Euro (5,633 contracts), British pound sterling (5,472 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,887 contracts), Australian dollar (5,744 contracts) and Bitcoin (363 contracts).

The currencies with lower speculator bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,310 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,545 contracts), Swiss franc (-4,261 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,621 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-9,843 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-01-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	56,651	82	34,774	86	-39,391	9	4,617	67
EUR	719,975	91	64,939	55	-95,105	49	30,166	24
GBP	211,869	46	-337	74	14,129	38	-13,792	27
JPY	208,629	61	-68,732	25	79,535	76	-10,803	27
CHF	47,273	24	-15,248	43	20,862	54	-5,614	47
CAD	143,507	26	14,140	61	-21,586	42	7,446	45
AUD	189,667	75	-78,336	12	87,737	84	-9,401	30
NZD	50,389	44	-14,172	47	16,090	55	-1,918	30
MXN	154,664	28	42,378	45	-45,811	54	3,433	58
RUB	24,753	11	9,674	36	-9,068	65	-606	18
BRL	94,577	100	24,445	74	-27,081	25	2,636	97
Bitcoin	9,980	51	80	99	-517	0	437	23

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.2	8.5	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	78.1	2.3
– Net Position:	34,774	-39,391	4,617
– Gross Longs:	43,761	4,831	5,942
– Gross Shorts:	8,987	44,222	1,325
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.1 to 1	4.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.8	9.1	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	5.0	-14.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,306 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	54.2	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	67.4	7.5
– Net Position:	64,939	-95,105	30,166
– Gross Longs:	228,385	390,260	84,321
– Gross Shorts:	163,446	485,365	54,155
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	48.8	24.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-12.6	7.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,809 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	62.1	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	55.4	17.2
– Net Position:	-337	14,129	-13,792
– Gross Longs:	47,679	131,583	22,551
– Gross Shorts:	48,016	117,454	36,343
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	38.0	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	6.7	-23.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -68,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,187 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	80.3	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	42.2	15.9
– Net Position:	-68,732	79,535	-10,803
– Gross Longs:	14,665	167,605	22,407
– Gross Shorts:	83,397	88,070	33,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.6	75.7	26.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-10.0	17.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -15,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.5	74.1	21.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	30.0	33.3
– Net Position:	-15,248	20,862	-5,614
– Gross Longs:	1,651	35,045	10,127
– Gross Shorts:	16,899	14,183	15,741
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	54.3	46.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	8.0	-7.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,140 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.5	40.1	21.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	55.2	16.3
– Net Position:	14,140	-21,586	7,446
– Gross Longs:	50,881	57,576	30,817
– Gross Shorts:	36,741	79,162	23,371
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	42.2	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	-5.4	2.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -78,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	80.1	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	33.8	15.4
– Net Position:	-78,336	87,737	-9,401
– Gross Longs:	12,720	151,922	19,865
– Gross Shorts:	91,056	64,185	29,266
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	84.4	29.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.4	-8.0	1.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	72.1	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	40.2	9.1
– Net Position:	-14,172	16,090	-1,918
– Gross Longs:	10,485	36,326	2,665
– Gross Shorts:	24,657	20,236	4,583
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.5	55.2	29.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	8.4	4.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 42,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.5	46.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	76.5	1.9
– Net Position:	42,378	-45,811	3,433
– Gross Longs:	74,971	72,497	6,306
– Gross Shorts:	32,593	118,308	2,873
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	53.7	57.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-16.0	3.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.0	40.2	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	68.9	2.0
– Net Position:	24,445	-27,081	2,636
– Gross Longs:	51,990	38,039	4,541
– Gross Shorts:	27,545	65,120	1,905
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.4	24.7	97.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.7	-37.1	31.8

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,517 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.6	51.9	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	88.5	5.9
– Net Position:	9,674	-9,068	-606
– Gross Longs:	11,050	12,848	855
– Gross Shorts:	1,376	21,916	1,461
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.3	64.8	18.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-4.2	-39.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 80 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.0	3.2	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.2	8.4	7.6
– Net Position:	80	-517	437
– Gross Longs:	7,981	321	1,198
– Gross Shorts:	7,901	838	761
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.7	0.0	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.8	-39.7	-3.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

05 Mar

COT Bonds Speculators drop their 5-Year US Treasuries bets to 172-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT bonds data is the surge higher in the bearish bets of the 5-Year Bond futures. The speculative bearish position in the 5-Year has increased for four straight weeks and has seen bearish bets change by at least -125,000 contracts in each of the past two weeks. The cumulative decline over the past four weeks has now amounted to a total of -353,515 contracts. This bearishness has pushed the current speculator standing to the most negative level in the past one hundred and seventy-two weeks, dating back to November of 2018. The speculator strength index score also hit a zero percent score this week, reiterating the weakness of the 5-Year speculator sentiment (the speculator strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). Despite the speculator weakness, the 5-Year Bond price this week rose as safe havens were bid with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the risk-off tone of the markets.

The bond markets with higher speculator positions this week were the 2-Year Bond (9,132 contracts), Eurodollar (163,136 contracts) and the Long US Treasury Bond (10,209 contracts) while the bond markets with lower speculator positions were the 5-Year Bond (-126,803 contracts), 10-Year Bond (-80,691 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-17,360 contracts), Fed Funds (-112,320 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-880 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-01-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	11,107,908	47	-2,219,731	3	2,611,337	96	-391,606	18
FedFunds	1,860,806	63	-139,272	22	159,332	79	-20,060	12
2-Year	2,047,626	11	-110,827	60	180,391	59	-69,564	14
Long T-Bond	1,113,867	34	-4,529	92	28,819	29	-24,290	33
10-Year	3,772,058	49	-365,783	16	585,754	95	-219,971	27
5-Year	3,807,232	37	-474,039	0	706,436	100	-232,397	17

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,219,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 163,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,382,867 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.3	74.8	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	51.3	7.2
– Net Position:	-2,219,731	2,611,337	-391,606
– Gross Longs:	591,420	8,313,755	411,021
– Gross Shorts:	2,811,151	5,702,418	802,627
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.3	95.7	18.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	7.6	0.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -139,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -112,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.3	78.7	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	70.2	2.5
– Net Position:	-139,272	159,332	-20,060
– Gross Longs:	43,149	1,464,992	26,323
– Gross Shorts:	182,421	1,305,660	46,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.4	79.2	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	15.1	5.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -110,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -119,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	78.4	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	69.6	11.0
– Net Position:	-110,827	180,391	-69,564
– Gross Longs:	240,027	1,605,575	155,387
– Gross Shorts:	350,854	1,425,184	224,951
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	59.3	14.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.2	33.6	-1.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -474,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -126,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -347,236 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	83.1	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	64.5	13.1
– Net Position:	-474,039	706,436	-232,397
– Gross Longs:	275,611	3,163,442	267,288
– Gross Shorts:	749,650	2,457,006	499,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.1	27.8	8.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -365,783 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -80,691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -285,092 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	77.5	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	62.0	14.3
– Net Position:	-365,783	585,754	-219,971
– Gross Longs:	397,091	2,925,060	319,742
– Gross Shorts:	762,874	2,339,306	539,713
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	95.0	27.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	5.8	11.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	74.3	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	65.8	18.3
– Net Position:	6,183	113,368	-119,551
– Gross Longs:	199,058	992,920	124,560
– Gross Shorts:	192,875	879,552	244,111
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	76.0	43.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.4	2.5	36.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	72.8	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	70.2	16.0
– Net Position:	-4,529	28,819	-24,290
– Gross Longs:	120,945	810,886	154,016
– Gross Shorts:	125,474	782,067	178,306
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.8	29.3	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-9.9	-9.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -335,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -334,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	80.0	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	56.4	9.6
– Net Position:	-335,261	297,953	37,308
– Gross Longs:	79,120	1,012,450	159,109
– Gross Shorts:	414,381	714,497	121,801
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.4	60.8	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-2.0	0.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions

05 Mar

Silver Speculator’s bullish bets climb to 15-week high as prices rise above $25

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT metals data is the rising speculator sentiment in the Silver futures bets. The speculative net position in the Silver futures rose this week for the third consecutive week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks. Silver speculator bets have now gained by a total of +25,649 contracts over these past three weeks and this week’s rise by +14,646 contracts marked the largest one-week gain in the past one hundred and fourteen weeks, dating all the way back to December of 2019. The current speculator contract standing has reached the highest level of the past fifteen weeks with a total of +44,948 contracts. The Silver price has been on the upswing with prices reaching the best levels since August and above the $25.75 per ounce level.

Joining Silver (14,646 contracts) with higher speculator bets this week were Gold (14,474 contracts) and Palladium (525 contracts) while Copper (-3,482 contracts) and Platinum (-650 contracts) saw lower speculator positions for the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-01-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	2,028,476	25	368,663	14	-410,955	79	42,292	75
Gold	615,600	51	257,622	70	-285,809	30	28,187	44
Silver	157,391	23	44,948	67	-57,150	43	12,202	14
Copper	195,398	23	22,093	58	-29,380	39	7,287	67
Palladium	7,242	4	-904	16	423	79	481	73
Platinum	65,383	31	16,890	26	-24,196	74	7,306	64
Natural Gas	1,112,832	3	-126,409	41	90,088	59	36,321	71
Brent	198,920	39	-6,707	100	4,004	0	2,703	46
Heating Oil	349,618	31	6,455	52	-32,434	37	25,979	88
Soybeans	758,796	35	218,907	84	-189,233	21	-29,674	21
Corn	1,484,670	18	460,938	89	-427,812	11	-33,126	24
Coffee	252,545	24	61,906	94	-66,290	8	4,384	19
Sugar	816,211	0	84,539	54	-105,323	48	20,784	34
Wheat	372,124	19	6,443	52	303	41	-6,746	69

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 257,622 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 14,474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 243,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.5	20.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	67.1	3.6
– Net Position:	257,622	-285,809	28,187
– Gross Longs:	354,177	127,231	50,266
– Gross Shorts:	96,555	413,040	22,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.6	30.4	44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.1	-19.7	3.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 44,948 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.3	32.7	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	69.0	8.3
– Net Position:	44,948	-57,150	12,202
– Gross Longs:	71,235	51,440	25,234
– Gross Shorts:	26,287	108,590	13,032
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	42.8	13.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-15.3	2.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 22,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,575 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	38.5	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	53.5	5.9
– Net Position:	22,093	-29,380	7,287
– Gross Longs:	75,526	75,232	18,908
– Gross Shorts:	53,433	104,612	11,621
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.3	39.3	67.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	0.8	-5.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 16,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,540 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	29.6	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	66.6	3.6
– Net Position:	16,890	-24,196	7,306
– Gross Longs:	33,902	19,330	9,637
– Gross Shorts:	17,012	43,526	2,331
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	74.4	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-16.2	22.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.3	44.8	20.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	39.0	13.9
– Net Position:	-904	423	481
– Gross Longs:	2,412	3,248	1,488
– Gross Shorts:	3,316	2,825	1,007
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.4	78.9	73.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.8	-17.1	34.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Metals Opinions

05 Mar

WTI Crude Oil Speculator bets see largest 1-week rise since 2020 on Russia Invasion

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT energy data is this week’s jump in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures rose this week for the first time in the past six weeks and had the largest one-week gain of the past sixty-six weeks, dating back to November 24th of 2020. The WTI Crude contract had been seeing a weakness in speculator positions despite the ramping up of the Russia-Ukraine situation as spec positions had fallen for six straight weeks before this week’s turnaround. Crude oil prices have surged on the Russian invasion of Ukraine with oil closing this week right below the $116 per barrel level which marks the highest price close since 2008.

Joining WTI Crude Oil (29,622 contracts) in gaining this week were Brent Crude Oil (19,648 contracts) and Natural Gas (4,220 contracts) while Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts), Gasoline (-1,144 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-709 contracts) saw falling contracts.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-01-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	2,028,476	25	368,663	14	-410,955	79	42,292	75
Gold	615,600	51	257,622	70	-285,809	30	28,187	44
Silver	157,391	23	44,948	67	-57,150	43	12,202	14
Copper	195,398	23	22,093	58	-29,380	39	7,287	67
Palladium	7,242	4	-904	16	423	79	481	73
Platinum	65,383	31	16,890	26	-24,196	74	7,306	64
Natural Gas	1,112,832	3	-126,409	41	90,088	59	36,321	71
Brent	198,920	39	-6,707	100	4,004	0	2,703	46
Heating Oil	349,618	31	6,455	52	-32,434	37	25,979	88
Soybeans	758,796	35	218,907	84	-189,233	21	-29,674	21
Corn	1,484,670	18	460,938	89	-427,812	11	-33,126	24
Coffee	252,545	24	61,906	94	-66,290	8	4,384	19
Sugar	816,211	0	84,539	54	-105,323	48	20,784	34
Wheat	372,124	19	6,443	52	303	41	-6,746	69

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 368,663 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,622 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 339,041 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	36.0	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.8	56.2	2.8
– Net Position:	368,663	-410,955	42,292
– Gross Longs:	465,365	729,585	99,568
– Gross Shorts:	96,702	1,140,540	57,276
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.0	79.1	74.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	6.4	1.4

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 19,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	40.9	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	38.9	2.9
– Net Position:	-6,707	4,004	2,703
– Gross Longs:	45,940	81,376	8,390
– Gross Shorts:	52,647	77,372	5,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	45.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-21.9	-4.0

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -126,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,220 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,629 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	43.6	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	35.5	2.1
– Net Position:	-126,409	90,088	36,321
– Gross Longs:	245,502	484,644	59,416
– Gross Shorts:	371,911	394,556	23,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	59.3	70.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	1.2	11.2

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 62,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,587 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	50.4	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	70.4	3.6
– Net Position:	62,443	-72,465	10,022
– Gross Longs:	97,185	182,352	22,896
– Gross Shorts:	34,742	254,817	12,874
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	64.5	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.7	-5.2	21.2

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	50.8	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	60.1	6.9
– Net Position:	6,455	-32,434	25,979
– Gross Longs:	59,340	177,626	50,210
– Gross Shorts:	52,885	210,060	24,231
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	36.7	88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-10.3	23.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,876 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.4	29.1	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	94.6	1.6	0.2
– Net Position:	-12,876	11,345	1,531
– Gross Longs:	26,144	12,001	1,605
– Gross Shorts:	39,020	656	74
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	18.3 to 1	21.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.2	36.9	73.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-16.8	34.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Opinions

05 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Speculators push their Corn bullish bets to 42-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the continued gains in the Corn futures bets. The speculative net position in the Corn futures rose this week for a second consecutive week and for the fourth time in six weeks. Corn speculator bets have risen by a total of +46,446 contracts over these past two weeks and pushed the current net speculator standing to the highest level in the last forty-two weeks, dating back to May 11th of 2021 when the net position totaled +500,856 contracts. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has boosted already rising soft commodities markets with Corn, Soybeans and Wheat seeing especially sharp gains in the past two weeks.

The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (9,196 contracts), Sugar (9,293 contracts), Soybean Oil (1,859 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,083 contracts), Cotton (1,526 contracts) and Wheat (10,345 contracts).

The soft commodities that saw lower bets this week were Cocoa (-16,484 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,199 contracts), Coffee (-5,885 contracts), Soybeans (-7,557 contracts) and Live Cattle (-23,204 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-01-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	2,028,476	25	368,663	14	-410,955	79	42,292	75
Gold	615,600	51	257,622	70	-285,809	30	28,187	44
Silver	157,391	23	44,948	67	-57,150	43	12,202	14
Copper	195,398	23	22,093	58	-29,380	39	7,287	67
Palladium	7,242	4	-904	16	423	79	481	73
Platinum	65,383	31	16,890	26	-24,196	74	7,306	64
Natural Gas	1,112,832	3	-126,409	41	90,088	59	36,321	71
Brent	198,920	39	-6,707	100	4,004	0	2,703	46
Heating Oil	349,618	31	6,455	52	-32,434	37	25,979	88
Soybeans	758,796	35	218,907	84	-189,233	21	-29,674	21
Corn	1,484,670	18	460,938	89	-427,812	11	-33,126	24
Coffee	252,545	24	61,906	94	-66,290	8	4,384	19
Sugar	816,211	0	84,539	54	-105,323	48	20,784	34
Wheat	372,124	19	6,443	52	303	41	-6,746	69

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 460,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 451,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	44.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.8	72.8	11.4
– Net Position:	460,938	-427,812	-33,126
– Gross Longs:	531,633	652,937	136,120
– Gross Shorts:	70,695	1,080,749	169,246
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.9	11.0	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-12.1	7.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	54.4	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	67.3	7.2
– Net Position:	84,539	-105,323	20,784
– Gross Longs:	180,931	443,667	79,458
– Gross Shorts:	96,392	548,990	58,674
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.0	48.2	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.9	4.1	8.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 61,906 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,885 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	44.3	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.5	70.5	2.5
– Net Position:	61,906	-66,290	4,384
– Gross Longs:	73,322	111,809	10,704
– Gross Shorts:	11,416	178,099	6,320
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.6	7.9	18.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	0.5	8.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 218,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 226,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.9	43.3	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	68.3	10.6
– Net Position:	218,907	-189,233	-29,674
– Gross Longs:	264,899	328,781	50,659
– Gross Shorts:	45,992	518,014	80,333
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.4	21.3	20.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.4	-22.8	10.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	46.7	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.9	73.3	5.2
– Net Position:	84,952	-100,238	15,286
– Gross Longs:	110,869	175,682	34,986
– Gross Shorts:	25,917	275,920	19,700
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.7	29.7	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.0	-20.1	25.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 113,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,100 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	44.0	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.7	78.9	5.0
– Net Position:	113,183	-138,449	25,266
– Gross Longs:	127,976	175,029	45,168
– Gross Shorts:	14,793	313,478	19,902
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.1	3.7	71.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-17.2	-7.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	38.5	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	52.8	11.7
– Net Position:	59,039	-51,142	-7,897
– Gross Longs:	115,502	137,310	33,952
– Gross Shorts:	56,463	188,452	41,849
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	65.8	67.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	5.7	-5.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 61,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,438 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	32.4	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	51.4	11.8
– Net Position:	61,239	-52,397	-8,842
– Gross Longs:	102,930	89,767	23,714
– Gross Shorts:	41,691	142,164	32,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.5	29.6	41.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-21.6	28.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 91,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,526 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.2	38.4	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.7	81.4	3.4
– Net Position:	91,828	-102,842	11,014
– Gross Longs:	103,148	91,726	19,051
– Gross Shorts:	11,320	194,568	8,037
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.2	17.8	82.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	3.2	-13.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	45.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	59.5	3.2
– Net Position:	25,431	-35,441	10,010
– Gross Longs:	74,581	114,758	18,047
– Gross Shorts:	49,150	150,199	8,037
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	47.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	-4.1	68.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,902 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	42.2	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	42.1	10.2
– Net Position:	6,443	303	-6,746
– Gross Longs:	104,934	157,102	31,257
– Gross Shorts:	98,491	156,799	38,003
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	41.1	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-4.7	15.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions Soft Commodities

04 Mar

The Week Ahead – Energy Inflation Derails Central Banks’ Agendas

By Orbex

EURUSD falls as the prospect of rate hike fades

The euro tumbles as traders cut their ECB rate hike wager. A dovish statement from the central bank is expected this week as the war at the gate of the eurozone intensifies.

Surging energy prices and trade disruptions could slow the recovery. This could also hurt household and business confidence. The risk of stagflation puts a serious dent in policymakers’ optimism. The ECB may refrain from taking a drastic turn in monetary policy despite the inflation headache, or even start to backpedal with more stimulus.

The euro is now heading towards April 2020’s lows near 1.0750. 1.1160 is the resistance in case of a rebound.

AUDUSD gains from surging commodities

The Australian dollar bounces higher thanks to soaring commodity prices.

The war in Ukraine triggered fears of supply disruptions in Eastern Europe and drove coal prices to a record high. Massive price spikes in coal, iron ore and copper (Australia’s main exports) boost demand for the Aussie.

Additionally, as traders scale back their hike expectations on major central banks, the RBA may feel less peer pressure to catch up on monetary tightening. The Aussie’s recovery may gain traction despite a risk-off mood across the board.

The pair is heading towards last October’s high at 0.7550. 0.7250 is the closest support.

USOIL surges on disruption fears

Oil prices continue to soar as mounting sanctions on Russia could disrupt global supply.

Russia is the second-largest exporter of crude oil behind Saudi Arabia, and the West has so far refrained from cutting the country off the supply chain for fear of collateral damage to its own economy. The latest proposal of a bipartisan bill to ban US imports of Russian oil stirs the pot.

Nonetheless, the Biden administration would be reluctant to take actions that could pump prices higher. Major consumers shunning Russian oil may make the market tighter than ever. WTI crude is hitting April 2011’s high at 115.00. And 90.00 is a strong support in case of a pullback.

US 100 consolidates on less hawkish Fed

The Nasdaq recouped some losses as the Federal Reserve may temper its tightening.

Geopolitical risks could push back the normalization agenda. In addition, the latest testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicates a less hawkish stance. Economic impacts from the Russia-Ukraine conflict remain uncertain and the Fed may proceed with caution.

Markets are betting that a mere 25-basis-point rate hike would be on the table this month, and only five instead of six rate rises would happen this year. The Fed’s light-handed approach could soften the sell-off which just stopped short at 13000. 15200 is the first resistance.

Trading the news requires access to extensive market research – and that’s what we do best. Open your Orbex account now.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

04 Mar

Gold Is Still More Attractive Than Bitcoin In Risk-Off Scenarios

By Orbex

Since the beginning of February, the spot price of gold has been moving higher.

Generally, when the expectation is for interest rates to go up, the price of gold drifts down. But, the concern over a potential invasion of Ukraine by Russia was a stronger factor. With traders piling into gold ahead of time, that explains why the yellow metal didn’t bounce so much when the anticipated invasion actually happened.

Meanwhile, BTC has overall fluctuated in a somewhat sideways pattern. It’s currently higher than it was at the start of February, but it had wider swings than the difference. This is one of the reasons why bitcoin (and cryptos in general) are likely not mature enough to replace gold as a safe haven.

Avoiding risk

The point of moving to a safe haven asset such as gold, or even treasuries, is to avoid risk.

In markets, the risk is generally high volatility from uncertainty. A war with the potential of nuclear consequences certainly counts as a high-risk situation. Naturally, that means that traders want to have something that isn’t likely to bounce around a lot, to preserve their assets during that period of market uncertainty.

Considering that description, bitcoin in its current state doesn’t seem all that attractive as a hedging investment. The explanation for this is in the kind of trader that bitcoin attracts. Often it’s people who put in risk assets in the hope of getting a better return. It’s not advisable to put your life’s savings into bitcoin, which is an indication that it’s not particularly stable.

Offsetting losses

The other more long-term issue is inflation. Central banks deliberately undermine flat currencies in order to generate a modest amount of inflation. They do this because the conventional economic theory is that it helps the economy grow.

But now inflation has gotten well out of hand. In fact, 7% or more inflation is worrisome. And traders might be interested in holding gold as a hedge against that.

But buying bitcoin, which regularly fluctuates in the double-digit percentages, doesn’t seem like a good option in the short term. Sure, it can help avoid maybe a 10% loss due to inflation. Nonetheless, if the price of BTC goes down by 50% in the meantime, it’s not a good investment.

Maturity and looking forward

It could be that in the long term, BTC might become a mature asset that won’t fluctuate wildly when there is a high-risk situation. For now, however, it appears that gold is likely to remain the winner during a crisis that threatens the markets.

We still have to be careful going all-in on gold. The fundamentals for gold are still pointing to the downside due to inflation likely coming under control from higher interest rates. In turn, that means that gold could be on the rise only as long as the uncertainty around the Ukraine situation persists.

The next round of talks between Russia and Ukraine are scheduled for next week. The longer the situation persists, the more it will “normalize” for the markets. As investors gain more sense of certainty, gold could turn around at some point.

Test your strategy on how gold will fare with Orbex – Open your account now.

Article by Orbex

Financial News Metals

04 Mar

USDCAD Double ZigZag Ⓩ Reaches 1.296

By Orbex

The current structure of the USDCAD indicates the formation of a bullish zigzag Ⓩ. This consists of sub-waves (W)-(X)-(Y) and it’s a double zigzag. Wave Ⓩ is part of the global cycle correction b.

It seems that the intermediate sub-waves (W) and (X) have ended. Thus, in the near future, the pair could start moving towards the 1.296 level within the final wave (Y).

The target is determined using the Fibonacci extension tool. At the specified level, wave Ⓩ will be at 76.4% of actionary wave Ⓨ.

Alternatively, the development of the primary bearish intervening wave Ⓧ is not complete yet. These sub-waves all together make up a bearish double zigzag.

It is possible that (W) and (X) have ended, whilst wave (Y) is still under construction. Specifically, as part of the wave (Y), the minor sub-waves W and X were complete. Thus, in the near future, this could lower the actionary wave Y to the 1.245 area.

The goal is determined by the previous minimum, which was formed by the wave (W). An approximate scheme of possible future movement is shown on the chart.

Have you downloaded our MT4? Get it here.

Article by Orbex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Mar

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains

By Orbex

USDJPY tests supply area

The Japanese yen stalled after an increase in January’s unemployment rate.

The pair’s rally above the supply zone around 115.80 has put the US dollar back on track. The general direction remains up despite its choppiness. 114.40 has proved to be solid support and kept the bulls in the game.

A close above 115.80 would extend the rally to the double top (116.30), a major resistance on the daily chart. Meanwhile, an overbought RSI caused a limited pullback, with 115.10 as fresh support.

NZDUSD breaks resistance

The New Zealand dollar recovers amid commodity price rallies.

After the pair found support near last September’s lows (0.6530), a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that sentiment could be turning around. A bullish breakout above the recent high (0.6810) would further boost buyers’ confidence and lift offers to January’s high at 0.6890.

On the downside, 0.6730 is the first support if buyers struggle to gather more interest. 0.6675 would be a second layer to keep the current rebound intact.

UK 100 lacks support

The FTSE 100 slipped after the second round of talks between Russia and Ukraine ended without much result.

The index met stiff selling pressure at 7560 then fell below the critical floor at 7170. Increasingly bearish sentiment triggered a new round of sell-off to the psychological level of 7000 from last November.

A deeper correction would lead to a retest of 6850, dampening the market mood in the medium-term. On the upside, the bulls must clear 7300 and 7450 to reclaim control of the direction.

Article by Orbex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Mar

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, ETH, Floki Inu, Shiba Inu). Overview for 04.03.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

Over the last 24 hours, the BTC rate lost almost 5%. On Friday, it is moving at $41,425; investors have been selling the asset for the third consecutive session. One of the reasons for that might be a close correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market, the NASDAQ index in particular. Another possible reason is that the global sentiment remains tense and it does little to active purchases.

The technical chart of the BTC confirms a sideways channel between $35,000 and $45,000. A trend reversal may be considered only after the price returns to $50,000.

As of today, the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation is $1.9 trillion (-5% if compared with yesterday).

Bitcoin chart online

ETH: global withdrawal and the price surge

From 22 February to 1 March 2022, about 327K ETH were withdrawn from crypto exchanges; it’s about $982 million. According to IntoTheBlock, this process still continues. At the same time, the ETH price leaped up 20%. However, the asset has been fallen for the latest three sessions and is currently trading at $2,477.

In the daily chart, the ETH has fixed in the range between $2,265 and $2,750. However, if the market sentiment reaches stability, it may resume moving towards $3,000. After fixing above it, the next upside target may be at $3,200.

Ethereum chart online

Floki Inu: too many ads

The United Kingdom banned ads of a meme token Floki Inu. The British came to the conclusion that the ad campaign was based on consumer concerns to a buying advantage. Apart from that, creators of Floki Inu might have benefited from customers’ trustingness and their lack of knowledge. Floki Inu is a cryptocurrency created in the name of Elon Mask’s dog, Floki.

Shiba Inu: it’s quite the thing now

In the meantime, meme coins are more alive than anything else. Ads of Shiba Inu were posted on a vintage city streetcar in Milan during the fashion week. Shiba Inu cooperates with a fashionable brand called John Richmond, that’s why such a promotion was really appropriate. The promotion was named Legends Live Forever: within its frameworks, they issued over 10K NFTs with images of clothes from John Richmond collections.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.