InvestMacro

USDCAD Intermediate Correction To End Near 1.341

The USDCAD structure indicates the construction of a large correction wave IV. This is part of a global cycle impulse and consists of sub-waves Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ.

On the current chart, we see the final part of the primary impulse wave Ⓒ. Wave Ⓒ consists of intermediate sub-waves (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). A deep intermediate correction (4) is currently under development. This could take the form of a minor triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z.

In the near future, prices should rise in the last minor sub-wave Z. It is most likely to be a minute double zigzag, and will end its pattern near 1.341.

At that price level, correction (4) will be at 61.8% of previous impulse wave (3).

According to the second option, the formation of the intermediate correction (4) has already been fully completed. In this scenario, it has the form not of a triple, but of a double zigzag W-X-Y.

Thus, in the last section of the chart, we see the development of the initial part of the intermediate wave (5). This can take the form of a minor impulse 1-2-3-4-5.

A price decline in the sub-waves 1-2-3-4-5 is then likely, and the entire intermediate wave (5) is likely to end near 1.195.

At the level of 1.195, impulse (5) will be at the 50% Fibonacci extension of intermediate impulse (3).

Article by Orbex

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Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 May

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Holds Onto Recent Gains

By Orbex

USDCHF grinds higher

The US dollar consolidates its gains as traders ponder whether inflation has peaked. A close above the parity, last seen in November 2019 indicates strong bullish sentiment. Trend followers have been eager to buy at pullbacks and may continue to do so in this directional market. The RSI’s overbought condition has prompted intraday buyers to take profit. 0.9960 is the closest support and 0.9870 a second line of defence for the bulls. A rebound would bring the greenback back to a three-year high at 1.0120.

USDNOK rides trendline

The Norwegian krone recoups losses as oil prices bounce back. The US dollar has been grinding up a rising trend line after a bullish breakout in early May. Sentiment remains extremely bullish and the pair is on its way to the psychological level of 10.0000. The RSI’s repeatedly overbought situation and a break below the trend line may cause a retracement as buyers would be unwilling to chase after higher bids. The demand zone around 9.6300 is a key level to keep short-term sentiment upbeat.

GER 40 tests daily resistance

The Dax 40 bounces higher amid bargain hunting after earlier sell-off. The index found support at the base of the mid-March rally at 13300. A bullish RSI divergence revealed a deceleration in the latest sell-off and a close above 13850 prompted sellers to cover their bets. The daily resistance at 14300 is a major hurdle and its breach could turn sentiment around. An overbought RSI may cause a pullback to test buyers’ commitment. 13750 is a fresh support and 13300 a floor to keep the current rebound relevant.

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Article by Orbex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 May

COT Currency Speculators raised British Pound Sterling bearish bets for 10th week

Here are the latest charts and statistics for this week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week was the rise in bearish bets for the British pound sterling currency futures contracts. Pound speculators have raised their bearish bets for a tenth consecutive week this week and for the eleventh time out of the past twelve weeks. Over the past ten-week time-frame, pound bets have dropped by a total of -79,261 contracts, going from -337 net positions on March 1st to a total of -79,598 net positions this week. The deterioration in speculator sentiment has now pushed the pound net position to the most bearish standing of the past one hundred and thirty-seven weeks, dating back to September 24th of 2019.

Pound sterling sentiment has been hit by a recent slowing economy as the UK GDP declined by 0.1 percent in March after flat growth in February. Also, weighing on the UK economy is the war in Ukraine that has sharply raised inflation in the country (and elsewhere) and which could see the UK economy with the lowest growth rate among G7 countries in 2023, according to the IMF.

Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (22,907 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,705 contracts), Bitcoin (315 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-9,660 contracts), Australian dollar (-13,198 contracts), Brazil real (-1,010 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,856 contracts), British pound sterling (-5,785 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,386 contracts), Canadian dollar (-14,436 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts).

Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-10-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	57,556	84	34,776	86	-37,174	13	2,398	43
EUR	705,046	84	16,529	40	-43,026	64	26,497	18
GBP	264,594	80	-79,598	17	95,245	86	-15,647	23
JPY	247,278	87	-110,454	1	124,927	97	-14,473	24
CHF	51,282	37	-15,763	40	29,819	69	-14,056	16
CAD	151,009	31	-5,407	38	2,939	67	2,468	35
AUD	153,209	47	-41,714	46	47,126	54	-5,412	39
NZD	56,235	56	-12,996	49	16,874	56	-3,878	7
MXN	153,858	28	16,725	34	-20,866	64	4,141	61
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	61,450	55	40,778	90	-42,031	10	1,253	79
Bitcoin	10,841	57	703	100	-789	0	86	15

Open Interest is the amount of contracts that were live in the marketplace at time of data.

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.6	3.2	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	67.8	4.5
– Net Position:	34,776	-37,174	2,398
– Gross Longs:	49,864	1,837	4,970
– Gross Shorts:	15,088	39,011	2,572
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.8	12.8	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-3.4	-19.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	53.3	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	59.4	8.3
– Net Position:	16,529	-43,026	26,497
– Gross Longs:	228,230	376,043	84,921
– Gross Shorts:	211,701	419,069	58,424
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	63.8	18.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	1.2	0.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -79,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	79.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	43.6	13.5
– Net Position:	-79,598	95,245	-15,647
– Gross Longs:	29,469	210,627	20,157
– Gross Shorts:	109,067	115,382	35,804
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.6	86.0	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.5	25.6	-7.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -110,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	86.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.2	35.7	13.9
– Net Position:	-110,454	124,927	-14,473
– Gross Longs:	11,196	213,084	19,811
– Gross Shorts:	121,650	88,157	34,284
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.8	96.6	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	0.0	16.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	74.6	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	16.5	43.5
– Net Position:	-15,763	29,819	-14,056
– Gross Longs:	4,727	38,258	8,271
– Gross Shorts:	20,490	8,439	22,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.8	69.2	15.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	8.0	-7.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	49.8	21.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	47.9	20.1
– Net Position:	-5,407	2,939	2,468
– Gross Longs:	38,679	75,215	32,880
– Gross Shorts:	44,086	72,276	30,412
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	66.9	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	14.5	-29.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,516 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	59.9	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.3	29.1	16.7
– Net Position:	-41,714	47,126	-5,412
– Gross Longs:	36,869	91,731	20,131
– Gross Shorts:	78,583	44,605	25,543
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	54.0	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	4.7	-34.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	68.5	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.1	38.5	10.8
– Net Position:	-12,996	16,874	-3,878
– Gross Longs:	15,203	38,541	2,216
– Gross Shorts:	28,199	21,667	6,094
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.5	56.4	7.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.4	26.0	-54.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.5	53.1	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	66.7	1.5
– Net Position:	16,725	-20,866	4,141
– Gross Longs:	63,921	81,735	6,467
– Gross Shorts:	47,196	102,601	2,326
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	64.1	60.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-10.1	-3.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.5	15.4	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	83.8	3.0
– Net Position:	40,778	-42,031	1,253
– Gross Longs:	48,835	9,454	3,070
– Gross Shorts:	8,057	51,485	1,817
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	10.3	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	3.5	-20.6

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	60.6	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	0.5	94.7	4.7
– Net Position:	7,543	-7,150	-393
– Gross Longs:	7,658	12,679	593
– Gross Shorts:	115	19,829	986
– Long to Short Ratio:	66.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.2	69.1	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	16.7	-18.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.1	2.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.6	9.4	8.3
– Net Position:	703	-789	86
– Gross Longs:	8,789	227	989
– Gross Shorts:	8,086	1,016	903
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	14.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-24.9	-13.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

15 May

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets mostly lower this week

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Metals speculator bets overall were lower this week with four out of the five metals markets we cover seeing lower bets on the week. The metals markets are seeing a cool off in their speculative positions as well as their prices as most of these markets are down from a short-term peak in early March.

The only market with higher speculator bets this week was Platinum (2,904 contracts).

The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Silver (-8,986 contracts), Gold (-5,853 contracts), Copper (-7,003 contracts) and Palladium (-493 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-10-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,736,594	0	310,803	2	-354,479	98	43,676	77
Gold	571,447	34	193,315	40	-227,756	57	34,441	57
Silver	142,752	9	19,082	41	-30,519	69	11,437	9
Copper	184,502	15	-22,626	26	19,249	73	3,377	45
Palladium	8,832	11	-3,245	3	3,434	96	-189	33
Platinum	66,064	32	1,363	5	-5,373	98	4,010	18
Natural Gas	1,108,451	6	-112,529	45	64,006	51	48,523	100
Brent	173,911	19	-31,215	59	30,562	44	653	18
Heating Oil	349,618	31	6,455	52	-32,434	37	25,979	88
Soybeans	694,454	20	174,608	72	-147,698	33	-26,910	26
Corn	1,510,783	23	470,908	90	-415,345	13	-55,563	11
Coffee	212,659	5	32,555	69	-33,559	37	1,004	0
Sugar	797,453	0	187,185	75	-220,611	26	33,426	49
Wheat	308,326	0	21,686	48	-17,779	34	-3,907	92

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 193,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.6	23.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	63.0	3.1
– Net Position:	193,315	-227,756	34,441
– Gross Longs:	288,947	132,251	52,098
– Gross Shorts:	95,632	360,007	17,657
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	56.8	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.1	21.0	19.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.9	36.9	17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	58.3	9.4
– Net Position:	19,082	-30,519	11,437
– Gross Longs:	59,829	52,637	24,862
– Gross Shorts:	40,747	83,156	13,425
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	69.0	9.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.1	30.3	-9.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	50.6	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	40.1	7.5
– Net Position:	-22,626	19,249	3,377
– Gross Longs:	57,510	93,318	17,183
– Gross Shorts:	80,136	74,069	13,806
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.1	72.7	44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.3	38.9	-19.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,904 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,541 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.6	39.8	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	47.9	6.1
– Net Position:	1,363	-5,373	4,010
– Gross Longs:	28,774	26,293	8,029
– Gross Shorts:	27,411	31,666	4,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.3	97.6	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	21.2	-38.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,752 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	59.0	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.2	20.1	13.3
– Net Position:	-3,245	3,434	-189
– Gross Longs:	1,013	5,209	982
– Gross Shorts:	4,258	1,775	1,171
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.0	96.1	32.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	11.8	-48.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Metals

15 May

COT Bonds Futures Charts: Speculator bets higher this week

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Bonds market speculator bets mostly rose this week as seven out of the eight bond markets we cover saw higher positioning this week. Most of these markets are deeply bearish (speculator levels and price levels) as bond markets have been declining mightily in this higher interest rate environment this year. This week’s rise in bond speculator bets will likely be short-lived although there have been increasing calls that bond markets may have hit or are approaching a short term bottom.

Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were 2-Year Bond (2,342 contracts), Eurodollar (87,521 contracts), 10-Year Bond (61,565 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (15,302 contracts), Long US Bond (1,942 contracts), Fed Funds (104,415 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (7,666 contracts).

The only market with declining speculator bets this week was the 5-Year Bond (-6,738 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-10-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	10,439,124	33	-2,600,587	3	3,030,504	97	-429,917	10
FedFunds	1,750,404	55	49,162	46	-49,266	54	104	60
2-Year	2,264,774	21	-126,829	57	201,609	64	-74,780	17
Long T-Bond	1,207,560	50	15,453	90	-4,991	19	-10,462	44
10-Year	3,722,697	45	-85,972	59	268,376	54	-182,404	36
5-Year	3,813,677	38	-325,674	26	502,383	75	-176,709	32

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,600,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 87,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,688,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.4	75.3	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	46.3	8.2
– Net Position:	-2,600,587	3,030,504	-429,917
– Gross Longs:	356,101	7,861,403	422,820
– Gross Shorts:	2,956,688	4,830,899	852,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.3	96.6	9.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	3.2	-0.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 104,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	75.2	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.1	78.0	2.3
– Net Position:	49,162	-49,266	104
– Gross Longs:	103,238	1,316,147	39,627
– Gross Shorts:	54,076	1,365,413	39,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.7	53.9	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.8	-10.3	53.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -126,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	77.3	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	68.4	9.5
– Net Position:	-126,829	201,609	-74,780
– Gross Longs:	275,153	1,751,572	140,782
– Gross Shorts:	401,982	1,549,963	215,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	63.9	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	8.7	11.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -325,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -318,936 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	83.0	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	69.9	11.8
– Net Position:	-325,674	502,383	-176,709
– Gross Longs:	291,527	3,167,247	271,640
– Gross Shorts:	617,201	2,664,864	448,349
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.1	74.5	32.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-11.7	16.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -85,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 61,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	76.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	69.2	13.3
– Net Position:	-85,972	268,376	-182,404
– Gross Longs:	406,123	2,846,309	313,590
– Gross Shorts:	492,095	2,577,933	495,994
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.4	53.8	36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	59.4	-46.2	-0.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -95,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,302 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,718 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	82.9	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	66.3	20.3
– Net Position:	-95,416	207,218	-111,802
– Gross Longs:	56,783	1,034,536	141,487
– Gross Shorts:	152,199	827,318	253,289
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.0	93.4	48.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	0.4	12.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,942 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,511 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	72.1	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	72.5	13.8
– Net Position:	15,453	-4,991	-10,462
– Gross Longs:	131,916	870,932	156,698
– Gross Shorts:	116,463	875,923	167,160
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.6	18.5	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.6	1.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -311,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319,179 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.6	84.6	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	61.6	9.8
– Net Position:	-311,513	290,655	20,858
– Gross Longs:	45,084	1,069,894	144,208
– Gross Shorts:	356,597	779,239	123,350
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.1	57.2	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	0.8	-9.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News

15 May

COT Futures: This Week’s Energy Charts

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The energy markets with higher speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (5,177 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (91 contracts).

The markets with declining speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-10,898 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (-3,897 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) and Gasoline (-7,003 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-10-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,736,594	0	310,803	2	-354,479	98	43,676	77
Gold	571,447	34	193,315	40	-227,756	57	34,441	57
Silver	142,752	9	19,082	41	-30,519	69	11,437	9
Copper	184,502	15	-22,626	26	19,249	73	3,377	45
Palladium	8,832	11	-3,245	3	3,434	96	-189	33
Platinum	66,064	32	1,363	5	-5,373	98	4,010	18
Natural Gas	1,108,451	6	-112,529	45	64,006	51	48,523	100
Brent	173,911	19	-31,215	59	30,562	44	653	18
Heating Oil	349,618	31	6,455	52	-32,434	37	25,979	88
Soybeans	694,454	20	174,608	72	-147,698	33	-26,910	26
Corn	1,510,783	23	470,908	90	-415,345	13	-55,563	11
Coffee	212,659	5	32,555	69	-33,559	37	1,004	0
Sugar	797,453	0	187,185	75	-220,611	26	33,426	49
Wheat	308,326	0	21,686	48	-17,779	34	-3,907	92

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 310,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 321,701 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	35.4	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.0	55.8	2.7
– Net Position:	310,803	-354,479	43,676
– Gross Longs:	415,170	614,716	90,689
– Gross Shorts:	104,367	969,195	47,013
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	98.5	76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	2.2	3.2

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -31,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,318 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	48.1	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	30.5	4.6
– Net Position:	-31,215	30,562	653
– Gross Longs:	33,423	83,639	8,698
– Gross Shorts:	64,638	53,077	8,045
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.8	44.1	18.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	14.9	-40.0

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -112,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -117,706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	37.9	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	32.2	2.2
– Net Position:	-112,529	64,006	48,523
– Gross Longs:	234,306	420,582	73,144
– Gross Shorts:	346,835	356,576	24,621
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	51.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-9.1	9.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 31,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	50.9	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	65.6	4.0
– Net Position:	31,378	-44,072	12,694
– Gross Longs:	73,929	152,809	24,799
– Gross Shorts:	42,551	196,881	12,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	93.0	97.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	3.7	34.1

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	50.8	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	60.1	6.9
– Net Position:	6,455	-32,434	25,979
– Gross Longs:	59,340	177,626	50,210
– Gross Shorts:	52,885	210,060	24,231
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	36.7	88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-10.3	23.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 91 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.7	36.7	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	96.2	0.0	0.2
– Net Position:	-13,263	12,644	619
– Gross Longs:	19,888	12,644	703
– Gross Shorts:	33,151	0	84
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	inf to 1	8.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	41.9	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	16.3	-11.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News

15 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets mostly cool off this week

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Soft commodities speculator bets cooled off this week with nine out of the eleven markets we cover showing a decrease in their positioning. Soft commodities markets have been red hot this year with the war in Ukraine causing food disruptions, general production problems, food protectionism and, of course, with inflation rising throughout the world.

Overall, the soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were just Soybean Oil (3,305 contracts) and Wheat (1,674 contracts).

Meanwhile, the soft commodities that saw lower speculator bets on the week were Corn (-30,957 contracts), Sugar (-14,407 contracts), Coffee (-8,142 contracts), Soybeans (-15,794 contracts), Soybean Meal (-15,429 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,233 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,671 contracts), Cotton (-1,674 contracts) and Cocoa (-15,513 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-10-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,736,594	0	310,803	2	-354,479	98	43,676	77
Gold	571,447	34	193,315	40	-227,756	57	34,441	57
Silver	142,752	9	19,082	41	-30,519	69	11,437	9
Copper	184,502	15	-22,626	26	19,249	73	3,377	45
Palladium	8,832	11	-3,245	3	3,434	96	-189	33
Platinum	66,064	32	1,363	5	-5,373	98	4,010	18
Natural Gas	1,108,451	6	-112,529	45	64,006	51	48,523	100
Brent	173,911	19	-31,215	59	30,562	44	653	18
Heating Oil	349,618	31	6,455	52	-32,434	37	25,979	88
Soybeans	694,454	20	174,608	72	-147,698	33	-26,910	26
Corn	1,510,783	23	470,908	90	-415,345	13	-55,563	11
Coffee	212,659	5	32,555	69	-33,559	37	1,004	0
Sugar	797,453	0	187,185	75	-220,611	26	33,426	49
Wheat	308,326	0	21,686	48	-17,779	34	-3,907	92

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 470,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,957 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 501,865 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	42.7	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.8	70.2	12.6
– Net Position:	470,908	-415,345	-55,563
– Gross Longs:	573,327	644,830	134,903
– Gross Shorts:	102,419	1,060,175	190,466
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.2	12.8	11.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	1.3	1.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 187,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	45.8	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.0	73.5	6.6
– Net Position:	187,185	-220,611	33,426
– Gross Longs:	251,330	365,263	86,129
– Gross Shorts:	64,145	585,874	52,703
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.1	26.3	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-3.4	-9.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 32,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	56.1	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	71.9	3.1
– Net Position:	32,555	-33,559	1,004
– Gross Longs:	50,564	119,399	7,690
– Gross Shorts:	18,009	152,958	6,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.2	36.5	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	7.3	-20.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 174,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 190,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	48.2	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	69.5	11.0
– Net Position:	174,608	-147,698	-26,910
– Gross Longs:	225,260	334,792	49,376
– Gross Shorts:	50,652	482,490	76,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	33.1	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	7.8	1.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 100,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	45.8	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.8	77.9	5.0
– Net Position:	100,596	-118,831	18,235
– Gross Longs:	118,463	169,761	36,820
– Gross Shorts:	17,867	288,592	18,585
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	21.8	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-8.6	10.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 84,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	47.1	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	77.1	5.9
– Net Position:	84,132	-108,059	23,927
– Gross Longs:	110,648	169,583	45,065
– Gross Shorts:	26,516	277,642	21,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.3	26.8	57.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.0	22.2	-25.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 39,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.0	38.1	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	49.7	12.1
– Net Position:	39,803	-35,783	-4,020
– Gross Longs:	111,188	117,509	33,291
– Gross Shorts:	71,385	153,292	37,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.5	66.7	67.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	8.4	22.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 16,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	38.0	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	43.0	12.8
– Net Position:	16,360	-10,817	-5,543
– Gross Longs:	66,483	82,353	22,102
– Gross Shorts:	50,123	93,170	27,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.6	80.7	67.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.1	40.4	13.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 81,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.8	33.8	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.3	79.6	3.1
– Net Position:	81,759	-92,603	10,844
– Gross Longs:	94,579	68,251	17,191
– Gross Shorts:	12,820	160,854	6,347
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.8	23.9	81.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	2.7	-14.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,559 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	44.1	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	53.6	4.0
– Net Position:	21,046	-26,770	5,724
– Gross Longs:	87,140	124,216	17,042
– Gross Shorts:	66,094	150,986	11,318
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	59.9	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.3	21.1	-30.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.2	39.1	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	44.9	10.9
– Net Position:	21,686	-17,779	-3,907
– Gross Longs:	111,546	120,631	29,835
– Gross Shorts:	89,860	138,410	33,742
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	34.4	92.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-11.9	1.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Soft Commodities

14 May

Gold Suffers Its Fourth Straight Week Of Declines

By Ino.com

Editor’s Note: I will be speaking at an upcoming conference The Vancouver Resource Investment Conference in British Columbia on May 17 and 18. For more information please click the link above.

Gold opened at $1977 on Monday, April 18, and this would mark the beginning of four consecutive weekly declines. As of 5:10 PM EDT gold futures basis, the most active June 2022 Comex contract is fixed at $1810.30 after factoring in today’s decline of $14.30 or 0.78%. Today’s decline in gold occurred without the benefit of dollar strength. The dollar index declined by 0.36% and is currently fixed at 104.515

The image above is a screen-print of the KGX (Kitco Gold Index) which was taken at 4:37 PM EDT. At that time spot gold was fixed at $1810.80 after factoring in a decline of $10.70. Market participants were active sellers resulting in a $14.30 price decline. Dollar weakness provided mild tailwinds adding $3.60 (+0.20%) in value.

The decline this week was the strongest percentage drawdown of the four weeks losing 3.87%. Considering that over the last four weeks gold’s value has decreased by 8.44%, almost half of that decline occurred this week. This correction devalued the price of gold by $167 per ounce, with $73 of that decline occurring this week.

Over the last four weeks, a major factor pressuring gold prices lower has been dollar strength. The dollar has gained value for the last six consecutive weeks. Over the last four trading weeks, the U.S. dollar has gained 4.15% in value. This means that dollar strength accounted for just under one-half of gold’s price decline.

The dollar has been trading in a defined range since the beginning of 2017. In January 2017 the dollar index opened at 102.80 and traded to a high of 103. 78 becoming the first instance of dollar strength at this level since 2003. Since 2017 the dollar index has traded to this level on three occasions.

Both the 2017 top as well as the second instance which occurred in March 2020 created a double top. In both instances, dollar strength peaked at these levels resulting in a price correction that followed these tops. This month the dollar not only challenged the highs created during the double top but effectively closed above them on a daily, weekly, and monthly chart.

The dollar index declined today by – 0.36%. However, the dollar had a strong weekly gain. Currently, the dollar index is fixed at 104.515 and the last time the dollar was this strong was the fourth quarter of 2002.

Yesterday I addressed that recent price changes in the dollar and gold have been headlined driven based upon fundamental events. Because technical studies by nature are lagging indicators there is an inherent disconnect. I was blessed to be mentored by two great market technicians one being Larry Williams. He told me a story that illustrated the shortcoming of only using technical indicators.

To paraphrase: A market technician is analogous to someone standing at the stern of a boat and using the wake from the propeller to indicate the direction the ship was headed. While it indicated where the boat had been, only the captain knows when he will turn the wheel.

In this instance, the Federal Reserve is at the helm attempting to steer the ship through a storm brought on by rampant inflation

For those who would like more information simply use this link.

Wishing you, as always good trading,
Gary S. Wagner
The Gold Forecast

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Gold Suffers Its Fourth Straight Week Of Declines

Metals Opinions

13 May

Stock Markets: “What Happens When the Dip Keeps Dipping?”

These can “work tirelessly to keep investors trapped on the wrong side of a bearish trend”

By Elliott Wave International

It’s been a rocky road for the Dow and the S&P 500 index since the start of the year. And, even longer for the NASDAQ, which topped back in November.

Indeed, speaking of technology stocks, some of the most popular names took a big beating in April alone. As the Wall Street Journal noted (April 29):

The FAANG stocks, consisting of the popular quintet of Facebook parent Meta Platforms, Apple, Amazon.com, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet, have collectively lost more than $1 trillion in market value [in April], the most since Facebook started trading in May 2012.

So, you might think that this bumpy ride in the stock market would have many investors at least considering moving to the sidelines, especially those with a sizeable nest egg to protect.

Well, according to a UBS Investor Sentiment survey of millionaire investors — conducted between April 5 and April 18 — most of those surveyed plan to stick with stocks.

Here’s a May 4 CNBC headline:

More wealthy investors would rather hold or add stocks than sell if markets keep sliding, survey says

Granted, this survey was taken before some of the roughest trading days in April. Still, it shows a recent willingness by even the “cream of the crop” in society to “buy the dip.”

No doubt, that same lingering bullishness has persisted in other nations too.

With that in mind, the April Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which provides analysis of 50-plus worldwide financial markets, provided an object lesson in buying the dip, using past bear markets in Germany’s DAX as examples:

[These two graphs illustrate] the multi-week and multi-month rallies that work tirelessly to keep investors trapped on the wrong side of a bearish trend. The left graph depicts every plus-10% rally from March 2000 to March 2003, a three-year span that saw the DAX drop by 74%. The right graph illustrates the bear market from July 2007 to March 2009, which saw seven rallies of 10% or more.

So, “buying the dip” can be a financially dangerous strategy.

In our view, it’s best to consult a financial market’s Elliott wave structure before making a decision about your portfolio.

If you’d like to learn how the Elliott wave model can help you analyze financial markets, you are encouraged to read Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from the book:

“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” Thus eloquently spoke Sherlock Holmes to his constant companion, Dr. Watson, in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Sign of Four. This advice is a capsule summary of what you need to know to be successful with Elliott. The best approach is deductive reasoning. By knowing what Elliott rules will not allow, you can deduce that whatever remains is the proper perspective, no matter how improbable it may seem otherwise. By applying all the rules of extensions, alternation, overlapping, channeling, volume and the rest, you have a much more formidable arsenal than you might imagine at first glance. Unfortunately for many, the approach requires thought and work and rarely provides a mechanical signal. However, this kind of thinking, basically an elimination process, squeezes the best out of what Elliott has to offer and besides, it’s fun! We sincerely urge you to give it a try.

You can read the entire online version of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior for free once you become a Club EWI member!

Club EWI is the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community and is free to join. Members enjoy free access to a wealth of Elliott wave resources on investing and trading.

Get started by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — free, unlimited and instant access now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Stock Markets: “What Happens When the Dip Keeps Dipping?”. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News

13 May

What are stablecoins? A blockchain expert explains

By Stephen McKeon, University of Oregon

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency linked to an asset like the U.S. dollar that doesn’t change much in value.

The majority of the dozens of stablecoins that currently exist use the dollar as their benchmark asset, but many are also pegged to other fiat currencies issued by governments like the euro and yen. As a result, the price of stablecoins is meant to fluctuate very little, unlike high-profile cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum that are prone to sudden ups and downs.

The first stablecoin, created in 2014, was Tether, which many other stablecoins are modeled after. Users receive one token for every dollar they deposit. In theory, the tokens can then be converted back into the original currency at any time, also at a one-for-one exchange rate.

As of May 11, 2022, there were about US$83 billion in Tether outstanding, or a bit less than half of the $172 billion market capitalization of all stablecoins worldwide. The next-largest is known as USD Coin, which has a market cap of about $49 billion.

Why stablecoins matter

Originally, stablecoins were primarily used to buy other cryptocurrencies, like bitcoin, because many cryptocurrency exchanges didn’t have access to traditional banking. They are more useful than country-issued currencies because you can use them 24 hours a day, seven days a week, anywhere in the world – without relying on banks. Money transfers take seconds to complete.

Another useful feature of stablecoins is that they can work with so-called smart contracts on blockchains, which, unlike conventional contracts, require no legal authority to be executed. The code in the software automatically dictates the terms of the agreement and how and when money will be transferred. This makes stablecoins programmable in ways that dollars can’t be.

Smart contracts have given rise to the use of stablecoins not only in seamless trading but also lending, payments, insurance, prediction markets and decentralized autonomous organizations – businesses that operate with limited human intervention.

Collectively, these software-based financial services are known as decentralized finance, or DeFi.

Proponents hold that moving money via stablecoins is faster, cheaper and easier to integrate into software compared with fiat currency.

Others say the lack of regulation creates big risks for the financial system. In a recent paper, economists Gary B. Gorton and Jeffery Zhang draw an analogy to the middle of the 19th century era when banks issued their own private currencies. They say stablecoins could lead to the same problems observed in that era, when there were frequent runs because people couldn’t agree on the value of privately issued currencies.

A reminder of those risks came in May 2022 as a so-called algorithmic stablecoin known as TerraUSD, or UST, plunged in value. Algorithmic stablecoins use a complex system of burning, or creating tokens for profit, to maintain their peg.

As a result of these issues, regulators have taken greater interest in them recently.

About the Author:

The Conversation U.S. publishes short, accessible explanations of newsworthy subjects by academics in their areas of expertise.

This article was updated to add reference to UST and algorithmic stablecoins on May 11, 2022.

Stephen McKeon, Associate Professor of Finance, University of Oregon

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

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