COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets mostly cool off this week

May 15, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Soft commodities speculator bets cooled off this week with nine out of the eleven markets we cover showing a decrease in their positioning. Soft commodities markets have been red hot this year with the war in Ukraine causing food disruptions, general production problems, food protectionism and, of course, with inflation rising throughout the world.

Overall, the soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were just Soybean Oil (3,305 contracts) and Wheat (1,674 contracts).

Meanwhile, the soft commodities that saw lower speculator bets on the week were Corn (-30,957 contracts), Sugar (-14,407 contracts), Coffee (-8,142 contracts), Soybeans (-15,794 contracts), Soybean Meal (-15,429 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,233 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,671 contracts), Cotton (-1,674 contracts) and Cocoa (-15,513 contracts).


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Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-10-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,736,594 0 310,803 2 -354,479 98 43,676 77
Gold 571,447 34 193,315 40 -227,756 57 34,441 57
Silver 142,752 9 19,082 41 -30,519 69 11,437 9
Copper 184,502 15 -22,626 26 19,249 73 3,377 45
Palladium 8,832 11 -3,245 3 3,434 96 -189 33
Platinum 66,064 32 1,363 5 -5,373 98 4,010 18
Natural Gas 1,108,451 6 -112,529 45 64,006 51 48,523 100
Brent 173,911 19 -31,215 59 30,562 44 653 18
Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88
Soybeans 694,454 20 174,608 72 -147,698 33 -26,910 26
Corn 1,510,783 23 470,908 90 -415,345 13 -55,563 11
Coffee 212,659 5 32,555 69 -33,559 37 1,004 0
Sugar 797,453 0 187,185 75 -220,611 26 33,426 49
Wheat 308,326 0 21,686 48 -17,779 34 -3,907 92

 


CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 470,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,957 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 501,865 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.9 42.7 8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.8 70.2 12.6
– Net Position: 470,908 -415,345 -55,563
– Gross Longs: 573,327 644,830 134,903
– Gross Shorts: 102,419 1,060,175 190,466
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.2 12.8 11.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.4 1.3 1.1

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 187,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 45.8 10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.0 73.5 6.6
– Net Position: 187,185 -220,611 33,426
– Gross Longs: 251,330 365,263 86,129
– Gross Shorts: 64,145 585,874 52,703
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.1 26.3 49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 -3.4 -9.6

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 32,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.8 56.1 3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.5 71.9 3.1
– Net Position: 32,555 -33,559 1,004
– Gross Longs: 50,564 119,399 7,690
– Gross Shorts: 18,009 152,958 6,686
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.2 36.5 0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 7.3 -20.9

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 174,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 190,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 48.2 7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.3 69.5 11.0
– Net Position: 174,608 -147,698 -26,910
– Gross Longs: 225,260 334,792 49,376
– Gross Shorts: 50,652 482,490 76,286
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9 33.1 25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 7.8 1.3

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 100,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.0 45.8 9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 77.9 5.0
– Net Position: 100,596 -118,831 18,235
– Gross Longs: 118,463 169,761 36,820
– Gross Shorts: 17,867 288,592 18,585
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.6 21.8 81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -8.6 10.0

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 84,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 47.1 12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.4 77.1 5.9
– Net Position: 84,132 -108,059 23,927
– Gross Longs: 110,648 169,583 45,065
– Gross Shorts: 26,516 277,642 21,138
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.3 26.8 57.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.0 22.2 -25.5

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 39,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.0 38.1 10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.1 49.7 12.1
– Net Position: 39,803 -35,783 -4,020
– Gross Longs: 111,188 117,509 33,291
– Gross Shorts: 71,385 153,292 37,311
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.5 66.7 67.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.7 8.4 22.1

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 16,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 38.0 10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.1 43.0 12.8
– Net Position: 16,360 -10,817 -5,543
– Gross Longs: 66,483 82,353 22,102
– Gross Shorts: 50,123 93,170 27,645
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.6 80.7 67.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -40.1 40.4 13.7

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 81,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.8 33.8 8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 79.6 3.1
– Net Position: 81,759 -92,603 10,844
– Gross Longs: 94,579 68,251 17,191
– Gross Shorts: 12,820 160,854 6,347
– Long to Short Ratio: 7.4 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.8 23.9 81.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5 2.7 -14.1

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,559 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 44.1 6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 53.6 4.0
– Net Position: 21,046 -26,770 5,724
– Gross Longs: 87,140 124,216 17,042
– Gross Shorts: 66,094 150,986 11,318
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.3 59.9 53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.3 21.1 -30.6

 


WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.2 39.1 9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 44.9 10.9
– Net Position: 21,686 -17,779 -3,907
– Gross Longs: 111,546 120,631 29,835
– Gross Shorts: 89,860 138,410 33,742
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.3 34.4 92.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.4 -11.9 1.2

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.