InvestMacro

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.07.05

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0415
Prev Close: 1.0422
% chg. over the last day: +0.07%

In his speech yesterday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said that higher inflation in the Eurozone would remain for some time. The ECB expects that lower energy prices, eliminating supply disruptions related to the pandemic, and normalizing monetary policy will help inflation return to the 2% target in the medium term. But the war and the risk of further energy supply disruptions to the Eurozone still pose a significant downside risk. The ECB is still planning to raise interest rates by 0.25% at the July meeting and make another increase at the September meeting.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0412, 1.0379
Resistance levels: 1.0447, 1.0504, 1.0564, 1.0611, 1.0680, 1.0723

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is trading below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator has become inactive. The price is forming a flat again. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0447 or 1.0504, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0412, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0611 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.05:

– Eurozone German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2103
Prev Close: 1.2102
% chg. over the last day: -0.01%

The British pound sterling rose against the safe-haven currencies on Monday, helped by an improvement in global risk appetite during a calm trading session due to the US holiday weekend. The difference between the monetary policy of the Bank of England and the US Fed on higher inflation also put pressure on the pound. The Fed interest rate is currently at 1.75%, while the Bank of England rate is at 1.25%. Such an overbalance of the rate will contribute to a further decline in GBPUSD quotes in the medium term.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2062, 1.2015, 1.1974
Resistance levels: 1.2137, 1.2172, 1.2238, 1.2324, 1.2422, 1.2470, 1.2523, 1.2629

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The situation is very similar to the euro. The price is trading below the moving averages, the MACD indicator has become inactive, and the price is forming a wide-volatile flat. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2137 or 1.2172, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2062, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2324 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.05:

– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Financial Stability Report (m/m) at 12:30 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 13:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 135.28
Prev Close: 135.65
% chg. over the last day: +0.27%

According to the BoJ’s former chief economist, Inflation in Japan will be higher and longer than the Bank of Japan now expects, making an upward revision to the price forecast likely later this month. But the revision will not mean that a change in monetary policy is imminent. The Bank of Japan will deliver its latest quarterly forecast on July 21. Its yield curve control program has come under heavy criticism in recent weeks because of increased speculation of tightening.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 135.67, 134.83, 133.35, 131.67, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76
Resistance levels: 136.57

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Buyer pressure in recent days has been increasing again. The MACD indicator has become positive, and the price forms a wide balance. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 135.67, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 136.57 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 133.35, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.05:

– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2877
Prev Close: 1.2858
% chg. over the last day: -0.15%

Canadian manufacturing activity fell slightly in June as inflationary pressures and material shortages held back production, and firms became less optimistic about future production. The manufacturing index fell to its lowest level since June 2020 to 50.9 from 55.6 in May. Consumer expectations for inflation rose, along with concerns about food, gas, and rent prices. Businesses expect high inflation over a more extended period. Both surveys reinforce calls for a 75 basis point rate hike at the next Bank of Canada decision on July 13.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2847, 1.2781, 1.2701, 1.2616
Resistance levels: 1.2914, 1.2957, 1.3045

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is now trading in a wide corridor, a slight pressure from buyers prevails, and the MACD indicator does not show activity. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals in the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2847, but with confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2914, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below the 1.2838 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Jul

The RBA has aggressively raised the interest rate. A labor strike in Norway threatens to disrupt oil and gas production

By JustForex

Yesterday the US had a bank holiday due to Independence Day, and the stock market did not trade.

Stock markets in Europe traded without a single dynamic on Monday. Yesterday, German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.31%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.40%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.17%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) was up to 0.89%.

Annual inflation in Turkey soared to nearly 79%, reaching its highest level in 24 years. Consumer prices skyrocketed due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, high energy, and food prices, and a sharply devalued lira, the national currency. Turkey had experienced rapid growth in previous years. Still, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has refused to raise rates substantially in the past few years to reduce inflation, calling interest rates the “mother of all evils”. The result has been a sharp decline in the Turkish lira and much lower buying power. Erdogan has instructed the country’s Central Bank, which analysts say is independent of him, to cut borrowing rates repeatedly in 2020 and 2021, even as inflation continued to rise. Central Bank governors who disagreed with this course of action were fired. Turkey’s Central Bank had replaced four governors in two years.

Brent oil prices rose yesterday as a strike in Norway threatened to disrupt oil and gas production. The strike is expected to cut oil and gas production by 89,000 barrels per day, of which gas production will be 27,500 barrels per day. Overall, the demand outlook is also worrisome for investors amid tightening global financial conditions as the US Federal Reserve fights high inflation with rapid rate hikes.

Asian markets also traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.84%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.13%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) added 1.11% on Monday.

Analysts think Asian stocks may get a boost on the back of positive economic data and hints of easing Sino-US tensions. The White House will announce some Chinese tariff cuts later this week to dampen rising inflation and help restore optimism to the markets. Service sector activity in China reached its fastest pace in nearly a year, which also lifted investor sentiment.

Analysts at Nomura Bank believe the EU, Britain, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, and the United States are likely to fall into recession over the next 12 months as central banks try to regain control of inflation by tightening policy too much.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its interest rate from 0.5% to 1.35%. In his speech, RBA Governor Phillip Lowe said the war in Ukraine and the strong demand for manufacturing capacity are putting upward pressure on prices. Inflation in Australia is high but slightly lower compared to other leading economies. The RBA predicts inflation will peak at the end of this year and fall back into the 2-3% range next year.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,825.33 0 (0%)

Dow Jones (US30) 31,097.26 0 (0%)

DAX (DE40) 12,773.38 −39.65 (−0.31%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,232.65 +64.00 (+0.89%)

USD Index 105.19 +0.06 (+0.05%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Financial Stability Report (m/m) at 12:30 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 13:00 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Jul

Trade Of The Week: Volatile Week For Dollar As Focus Shifts To NFP?

By ForexTime

The mighty dollar reigned supreme during the first half of 2022, asserting its dominance over all G10 currencies.

Greenback bulls drew ample inspiration from risk aversion as geopolitical risks and recession fears sent investors sprinting towards safe-haven destinations. Appetite towards the currency was also stimulated by expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes in the face of soaring inflation with rising Treasury yields fuelling upside gains.

As buying sentiment improved throughout H1, this propelled the Dollar Index (DXY) to levels not seen in 20 years.

There was also some action on the equally- weighted USD Index which hit a 2022 high of 1.1954 in June.

Given how bulls dominated the scene in H1, the momentum could roll over into the second half of 2022 if the fundamentals forces remain intact. Taking a quick look at the technicals, both the Dollar Index and Equally-weighted USD index remain firmly bullish on multiple timeframes with the path of least resistance north. When considering how the week ahead is jam-packed with key US economic reports and speeches from numerous Fed officials, it may be wise to fasten your seatbelts for potential USD volatility.

The low down…

Last week, Federal Reserve Chair reiterated that the US economy was “well positioned to withstand tighter monetary policy” during a panel discussion at the ECB forum. However, he cautioned about the Fed’s ability to achieve a “soft landing”. This has fed into the US recession fears as the central bank wages war against soaring inflation.

Annual inflation rate in the United States unexpectedly accelerated to 8.6% in May, the highest since December 1981 as energy prices jumped the most since September 2005. This red-hot figure poured cold water on hopes of inflation peaking and fuelled speculation of aggressive interest rate hikes from the Fed.

Interestingly, the latest core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) painted a different picture as inflation showed some signs of cooling off in May. This was a significant development, especially when considering how the core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. The PCE Price Index rose 6.3% year-over-year which was slightly below market forecast while the core PCE dropped to 4.7%, down from April’s 4.9%. This better-than-expected data may revive hopes around price pressures peaking, cooling bets around aggressive hikes. Nevertheless, traders are still pricing in around a 75% chance of a 75-basis point rate hike at the Fed meeting this month.

The week ahead…

US markets will be closed on Monday for Independence Day.

Nevertheless, the holiday-shortened week promises to be eventful due to key economic reports and risk events. All eyes will be on the FOMC minutes on Wednesday which could provide fresh insight into policy paths ahead of the key US jobs report on Friday. At its June meeting, the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points, its biggest rate increase since 1994. The minutes should provide more insight into the internal discussions over the decision.

Before the NFP report on Friday, investors will be served side dishes in the form of the US ADP employment change and initial jobless claims. This will be topped off with speeches from Fed officials.

The main course on Friday could satisfy or dissatisfy investors depending on the print. Markets expect the US economy to have added 250,000 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate is seen holding at 3.6%. Should the headline NFP meet or exceed market forecasts with the unemployment rate holding steady or falling, this could soothe US recession fears. Alternatively, a lower-than-expected headline NFP figure coupled with a higher-than-3.6% unemployment rate could fuel fears around the US economy bound for a recession down the road.

Dollar breakout on the horizon?

It looks like the equally-weighted USD Index could be gearing to push higher with 1.1950 acting as a key level of interest.

Prices remain bullish on the weekly and daily timeframe. Beyond 1.1950, the next key point can be found at 1.2070. A solid breakout above 1.2070 could open the doors towards 1.2300.

Should 1.1950 prove to be reliable resistance, a decline back towards 1.1700, 1.1640, and 1.1400 could be on the cards.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

05 Jul

Gold Price Analysis: Too Much Pressure

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Gold prices reached stability on Monday not far from $1,812 per troy ounce. The strong American currency still puts much pressure on the precious metal.

Despite the significant market turbulence, demand for Gold as a “safe haven” asset is close to zero because US bonds are rallying and attracting much more attention. Unlike bonds, Gold doesn’t generate its own profitability.

Another factor that makes Gold less attractive to investors in the anticipation of another rate hike by the US Federal Reserve System.

Also, the Gold price is being pressured by news from India, which raised its import fee for the precious metal from 7.5% с 12.5% to reduce the foreign trade deficit. This move will decrease the demand for Gold in the country – the news is very important for market players because India is the second biggest consumer of Gold on the planet.

As we can see in the H4 chart, after completing the first descending structure at 1805.05, along with the correction up to 1857.10, XAU/USD has rebounded from the latter level; right now, it is falling again with the short-term target at 1764.00. Later, the market may start a new correction to test 1811.77 from below and then resume trading downwards towards 1704.88. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 0 and may soon update its lows.

In the H1 chart, Gold has finished the descending wave at 1784.22, along with the correction to test 1812.40 from below; right now, it is consolidating below the latter level. Possibly, the metal may break this range to the downside and resume falling with the short-term target at 1764.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: after breaking 50 downwards, its signal is expected to continue falling and reach 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

02 Jul

Currency Speculators reduced their British Pound and Japanese Yen bearish bets to multi-week lows

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for currency markets was the Mexican peso (12,890 contracts) and the British pound sterling (10,129 contracts) with the Japanese yen (5,884 contracts), Euro (5,009 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,992 contracts), New Zealand dollar (112 contracts) and Bitcoin (39 contracts) also showing a positive week.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Brazilian real (-7,317 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-2,374 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-1,781 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-1,434 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the currency contracts this week was the cool off in bearish bets for both the British pound and the Japanese yen.

British pound sterling speculator positions rose for the fifth straight week and this week’s improvement pushed the overall position to the least bearish standing of the past eleven weeks. The GBP speculative standing has been in a continual bearish position since the middle of February but has come down from a total of -80,372 contracts on May 24th to a total of -53,118 contracts this week after the past five week’s improvement (by 27,254 contracts). The GBPUSD exchange rate has remained in a downtrend despite the recent cool off in speculator sentiment and touched below the 1.20 exchange this week for the second time this month.

Japanese yen speculator bets rose for the seventh straight week this week and reached the least bearish position of the past 27 weeks. Japanese yen bets have been sharply bearish for over a year were at -110,454 contracts as recently as May 10th. The past seven weeks have shaved 57,884 contracts off the bearish level and brought the current speculative position to a total of -52,570 contracts this week. The exchange rate for the USDJPY currency pair remains at the top of its range (yen weakness) and near 20-year highs around 135.00.

In other currency contracts, the US Dollar Index speculator positions slid a bit this week after rising for six out of the previous seven weeks. The Dollar Index spec position had hit a new 5-year high last week at over +45,000 contracts and was at a 100 percent strength score (measured against past 3-years spec positioning). This week’s decline doesn’t dent the overall position much as the net position remains over +43,000 contracts for the third straight week. The Dollar Index futures price has remained strongly in an uptrend and reached a high over 105 this week before closing just below that figure at 104.91.

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bitcoin (100 percent), the US Dollar Index (97 percent) and the Brazilian real (87 percent) are currently near the top of their ranges and in bullish extreme levels. The Mexican peso at 21 percent is at the lowest strength level currently and followed by the Euro at 32 percent.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese yen (31 percent) is on the greatest move of the past six weeks. The Canadian dollar (27 percent), New Zealand dollar (21 percent) and the Swiss franc (20 percent) round out the top movers in the latest data. The Mexican peso at -18 percent leads the downtrending currencies followed by the Euro at -10 percent and the Brazilian real at -1 percent.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-28-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	63,143	96	43,229	97	-46,558	2	3,329	53
EUR	671,472	70	-10,596	32	-19,812	70	30,408	25
GBP	228,736	57	-53,118	36	70,230	71	-17,112	20
JPY	213,767	64	-52,570	37	67,895	69	-15,325	22
CHF	40,123	21	-8,591	35	17,862	72	-9,271	26
CAD	142,584	25	9,097	50	-12,247	59	3,150	36
AUD	139,891	37	-42,980	45	47,163	54	-4,183	42
NZD	40,337	25	-5,311	62	8,551	44	-3,240	14
MXN	193,536	46	-13,980	21	9,107	77	4,873	64
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	60,107	54	37,028	87	-38,531	14	1,503	82
Bitcoin	13,707	78	1,085	100	-947	0	-138	10

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,229 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,010 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.5	3.7	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	77.4	3.2
– Net Position:	43,229	-46,558	3,329
– Gross Longs:	54,646	2,340	5,371
– Gross Shorts:	11,417	48,898	2,042
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.0	1.9	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-11.2	0.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	56.6	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	59.6	8.0
– Net Position:	-10,596	-19,812	30,408
– Gross Longs:	189,414	380,084	83,853
– Gross Shorts:	200,010	399,896	53,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	70.4	24.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	9.0	-1.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	74.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	44.0	15.4
– Net Position:	-53,118	70,230	-17,112
– Gross Longs:	35,184	170,967	18,055
– Gross Shorts:	88,302	100,737	35,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.7	71.2	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-14.3	-4.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -52,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.1	71.1	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.6	39.4	17.6
– Net Position:	-52,570	67,895	-15,325
– Gross Longs:	36,462	152,071	22,379
– Gross Shorts:	89,032	84,176	37,704
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	68.8	22.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.6	-23.0	-5.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,591 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	64.8	23.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	20.3	47.0
– Net Position:	-8,591	17,862	-9,271
– Gross Longs:	4,523	25,994	9,588
– Gross Shorts:	13,114	8,132	18,859
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.7	72.0	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.3	-21.2	18.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 9,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,992 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	45.9	20.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	54.5	18.5
– Net Position:	9,097	-12,247	3,150
– Gross Longs:	45,893	65,407	29,537
– Gross Shorts:	36,796	77,654	26,387
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	58.5	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.5	-20.7	2.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	61.7	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.4	28.0	17.1
– Net Position:	-42,980	47,163	-4,183
– Gross Longs:	28,887	86,347	19,791
– Gross Shorts:	71,867	39,184	23,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	54.1	42.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-5.4	13.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	64.9	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	43.7	13.6
– Net Position:	-5,311	8,551	-3,240
– Gross Longs:	11,720	26,167	2,256
– Gross Shorts:	17,031	17,616	5,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	43.6	14.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-19.8	4.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,890 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.3	40.9	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.5	36.1	1.1
– Net Position:	-13,980	9,107	4,873
– Gross Longs:	107,031	79,060	7,059
– Gross Shorts:	121,011	69,953	2,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.4	76.6	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	17.2	3.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,028 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.7	22.8	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	86.9	3.0
– Net Position:	37,028	-38,531	1,503
– Gross Longs:	43,088	13,691	3,307
– Gross Shorts:	6,060	52,222	1,804
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.8	13.7	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.9	1.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 39 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.3	0.8	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.3	7.7	7.5
– Net Position:	1,085	-947	-138
– Gross Longs:	11,137	115	890
– Gross Shorts:	10,052	1,062	1,028
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	2.8	9.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-4.2	-4.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

02 Jul

COT Week 26 Charts: Precious Metals Speculators bets head lower led by Copper & Silver

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The COT metals market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while five markets had lower contracts.

The only precious metals market with higher speculator bets was Palladium with a net gain of just 221 contracts on the week.

Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Copper (-9,758 contracts) and Silver (-7,528 contracts) with Gold (-5,594 contracts) and Platinum (-2,797 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that all of the metals are in bearish extreme levels at the moment. Copper (20 percent) is at the highest level of all but still right at the cusp of the bearish extreme level while all the other metals are at just 2 percent or under, signifying that these are right at the bottom of their 3-year speculator sentiment range.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) show a similar picture as well with all the metals seeing downtrends for the past six weeks. Gold at -9 percent is leading the trends lower followed by Silver at -8 percent with the other metals all at -5 percent or lower.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-28-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,651,566	0	299,692	3	-327,938	99	28,246	55
Gold	497,005	13	157,693	2	-182,007	98	24,314	16
Silver	135,775	3	10,891	0	-18,485	100	7,594	0
Copper	182,352	14	-30,696	20	31,197	81	-501	22
Palladium	7,765	6	-3,825	1	4,441	100	-616	8
Platinum	68,232	36	-1,306	2	-3,381	100	4,687	27
Natural Gas	987,740	0	-129,419	40	90,840	60	38,579	71
Brent	173,920	19	-42,677	40	41,434	62	1,243	26
Heating Oil	269,168	23	7,508	53	-25,743	44	18,235	62
Soybeans	653,337	11	137,193	56	-106,705	52	-30,488	20
Corn	1,338,054	0	328,102	72	-274,110	33	-53,992	12
Coffee	194,896	2	45,200	78	-47,147	26	1,947	9
Sugar	734,324	0	122,709	62	-132,877	43	10,168	20
Wheat	291,041	0	7,679	29	-1,871	57	-5,808	80

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 157,693 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,287 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.1	23.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	60.2	4.1
– Net Position:	157,693	-182,007	24,314
– Gross Longs:	268,712	117,038	44,823
– Gross Shorts:	111,019	299,045	20,509
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.6	98.3	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	12.0	-25.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.0	40.8	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	54.4	11.1
– Net Position:	10,891	-18,485	7,594
– Gross Longs:	52,932	55,406	22,724
– Gross Shorts:	42,041	73,891	15,130
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	7.7	-5.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -30,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,758 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	56.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	39.7	8.2
– Net Position:	-30,696	31,197	-501
– Gross Longs:	47,782	103,666	14,516
– Gross Shorts:	78,478	72,469	15,017
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.3	80.9	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	5.6	-10.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	41.6	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	46.6	5.6
– Net Position:	-1,306	-3,381	4,687
– Gross Longs:	28,451	28,413	8,503
– Gross Shorts:	29,757	31,794	3,816
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.5	100.0	27.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	4.6	2.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,825 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	73.1	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.0	15.9	19.4
– Net Position:	-3,825	4,441	-616
– Gross Longs:	1,146	5,674	893
– Gross Shorts:	4,971	1,233	1,509
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.3	99.6	8.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	4.6	-12.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog investing Metals Opinions

02 Jul

COT Week 26 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators bets drop sharply led by Corn, Soybeans & Sugar

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The soft commodities market speculator bets were sharply lower this week as just two out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while nine markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Lean Hogs (4,228 contracts) and Cocoa (3,034 contracts) as the only markets showing positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-52,067 contracts), Soybeans (-41,186 contracts) and Sugar (-40,402 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-22,612 contracts), Live Cattle (-12,287 contracts), Wheat (-11,388 contracts), Cotton (-9,655 contracts), Coffee (-4,171 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-1,446 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish and below 20 percent is extreme bearish) show that Soybean Meal (80 percent) is leading the speculator strength positions at an extreme bullish score. Coffee (78 percent) and Corn (72 percent) are the next highest in strength scores. Live Cattle (14 percent) is the lone extreme bearish market with Cocoa (24 percent) coming in as the next lowest.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows the trends for soft commodities are on the downside with eight out of the eleven markets showing negative trends. Soybean Oil (-34 percent) and Wheat (-28 percent) are leading the negative scores currently. The only markets with positive scores this week are Coffee (6 percent), Lean Hogs (9 percent) and Soybean Meal (12 percent).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-28-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,651,566	0	299,692	3	-327,938	99	28,246	55
Gold	497,005	13	157,693	2	-182,007	98	24,314	16
Silver	135,775	3	10,891	0	-18,485	100	7,594	0
Copper	182,352	14	-30,696	20	31,197	81	-501	22
Palladium	7,765	6	-3,825	1	4,441	100	-616	8
Platinum	68,232	36	-1,306	2	-3,381	100	4,687	27
Natural Gas	987,740	0	-129,419	40	90,840	60	38,579	71
Brent	173,920	19	-42,677	40	41,434	62	1,243	26
Heating Oil	269,168	23	7,508	53	-25,743	44	18,235	62
Soybeans	653,337	11	137,193	56	-106,705	52	-30,488	20
Corn	1,338,054	0	328,102	72	-274,110	33	-53,992	12
Coffee	194,896	2	45,200	78	-47,147	26	1,947	9
Sugar	734,324	0	122,709	62	-132,877	43	10,168	20
Wheat	291,041	0	7,679	29	-1,871	57	-5,808	80

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 328,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -52,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 380,169 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	44.6	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.9	65.1	13.4
– Net Position:	328,102	-274,110	-53,992
– Gross Longs:	433,710	597,265	125,886
– Gross Shorts:	105,608	871,375	179,878
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	32.9	12.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	21.4	-2.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 122,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -40,402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,111 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	49.2	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.0	67.3	7.7
– Net Position:	122,709	-132,877	10,168
– Gross Longs:	210,575	361,005	66,813
– Gross Shorts:	87,866	493,882	56,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.8	43.0	20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	21.3	-47.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,371 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	49.4	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.3	73.6	3.1
– Net Position:	45,200	-47,147	1,947
– Gross Longs:	55,545	96,232	8,006
– Gross Shorts:	10,345	143,379	6,059
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.9	26.5	9.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-5.6	-5.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 137,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -41,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 178,379 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	52.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	68.9	10.5
– Net Position:	137,193	-106,705	-30,488
– Gross Longs:	191,380	343,227	38,323
– Gross Shorts:	54,187	449,932	68,811
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	51.7	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	15.0	-6.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 44,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	55.7	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	70.4	6.1
– Net Position:	44,918	-53,225	8,307
– Gross Longs:	82,491	202,343	30,416
– Gross Shorts:	37,573	255,568	22,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.9	63.7	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.2	38.6	-48.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 93,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,371 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	43.5	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.3	72.8	6.0
– Net Position:	93,925	-114,869	20,944
– Gross Longs:	106,995	170,250	44,567
– Gross Shorts:	13,070	285,119	23,623
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	23.2	42.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-7.4	-33.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	39.4	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	49.1	11.5
– Net Position:	27,835	-27,080	-755
– Gross Longs:	98,030	110,513	31,369
– Gross Shorts:	70,195	137,593	32,124
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.3	76.2	79.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	5.9	9.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,059 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	41.6	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	45.5	14.5
– Net Position:	16,287	-7,339	-8,948
– Gross Longs:	61,378	77,472	18,100
– Gross Shorts:	45,091	84,811	27,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.5	84.8	50.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-5.5	-19.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 56,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.4	40.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	75.6	4.5
– Net Position:	56,390	-61,856	5,466
– Gross Longs:	72,622	70,585	13,385
– Gross Shorts:	16,232	132,441	7,919
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.6	41.9	46.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	17.0	-38.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	44.3	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	47.1	3.7
– Net Position:	6,339	-8,708	2,369
– Gross Longs:	91,654	134,441	13,610
– Gross Shorts:	85,315	143,149	11,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	77.4	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	14.6	-27.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,388 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	40.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	41.5	12.1
– Net Position:	7,679	-1,871	-5,808
– Gross Longs:	89,989	118,839	29,465
– Gross Shorts:	82,310	120,710	35,273
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	57.0	80.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.5	34.3	-15.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Soft Commodities

02 Jul

COT Week 26 Charts: Bond Market Speculators were mixed this week led by Eurodollars & 10-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bonds markets was the 10-Year Bond (46,504 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bond (37,626 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (17,165 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (7,073 contracts) also having a positive week.

Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Eurodollar (-158,541 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (-98,573 contracts) with the Long US Bond (-18,931 contracts) and Fed Funds (-3,839 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (72.1 percent) remains at the highest level of the bonds markets currently while the 2-Year Bond is creeping up at 62 percent. On the lower end of their ranges, the 3-Month Eurodollars (13 percent) is in a bearish-extreme level while the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (22 percent) comes in next lowest but has been risen from around 7 percent last week.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) are leading the six-week trends with Eurodollars (13 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (10 percent) coming in next. The US Treasury Bond leads the trends on the downside with a -22.9 percent trend change followed by the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-17.7 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-28-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,521,916	13	-2,156,430	13	2,512,425	86	-355,995	26
FedFunds	1,748,855	57	120,582	55	-111,402	46	-9,180	36
2-Year	2,118,890	15	-102,118	62	194,562	62	-92,444	10
Long T-Bond	1,182,840	46	-38,253	72	37,023	24	1,230	54
10-Year	3,403,344	23	-181,680	45	329,404	61	-147,724	45
5-Year	3,962,280	49	-202,664	48	373,431	59	-170,767	34

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,156,430 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -158,541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,997,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	70.5	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	44.1	7.9
– Net Position:	-2,156,430	2,512,425	-355,995
– Gross Longs:	588,828	6,711,010	391,853
– Gross Shorts:	2,745,258	4,198,585	747,848
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.3	86.0	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.3	-14.0	15.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 120,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,839 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 124,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	70.8	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	77.2	2.8
– Net Position:	120,582	-111,402	-9,180
– Gross Longs:	243,400	1,238,618	39,186
– Gross Shorts:	122,818	1,350,020	48,366
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.5	46.4	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-8.0	-14.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -102,118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -119,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	77.8	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	68.6	10.7
– Net Position:	-102,118	194,562	-92,444
– Gross Longs:	275,428	1,647,599	134,145
– Gross Shorts:	377,546	1,453,037	226,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	62.4	10.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-3.2	-7.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -202,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -98,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	83.1	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	73.7	11.7
– Net Position:	-202,664	373,431	-170,767
– Gross Longs:	330,759	3,293,540	291,486
– Gross Shorts:	533,423	2,920,109	462,253
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.7	58.9	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-5.4	-3.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -181,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 46,504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -228,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	80.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	70.4	13.5
– Net Position:	-181,680	329,404	-147,724
– Gross Longs:	274,858	2,724,138	312,558
– Gross Shorts:	456,538	2,394,734	460,282
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	61.0	44.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	1.3	2.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -26,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 37,626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	83.3	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	70.6	21.5
– Net Position:	-26,080	152,060	-125,980
– Gross Longs:	61,919	998,346	131,429
– Gross Shorts:	87,999	846,286	257,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	79.3	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.7	-12.5	-14.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	78.8	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	75.6	13.8
– Net Position:	-38,253	37,023	1,230
– Gross Longs:	80,552	931,822	164,556
– Gross Shorts:	118,805	894,799	163,326
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.1	24.0	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.9	18.4	14.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -337,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -345,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.3	85.0	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	61.1	9.1
– Net Position:	-337,983	307,346	30,637
– Gross Longs:	42,179	1,092,416	148,217
– Gross Shorts:	380,162	785,070	117,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.3	65.4	50.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	21.2	0.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News

02 Jul

COT Week 26 Charts: Energy Speculator bets mostly higher led by WTI Crude Oil & Natural Gas

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Energy market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (10,190 contracts) and Natural Gas (1,450 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (703 contracts) and Gasoline (692 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Brent Crude Oil (-4,667 contracts) with Heating Oil (-2,056 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish and below 20 percent is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (79 percent) and Heating Oil (54 percent) are above the midpoint for the past 3 years while all the other markets are below the 50 percent level. Gasoline and WTI Crude are in extreme bearish positions as each come in at 3 percent currently.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating Oil (16 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (9 percent) are also the only markets that have rising trend scores currently. Brent Crude Oil (-13 percent) and WTI Crude (-9 percent) are leading the downside trends.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-28-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,651,566	0	299,692	3	-327,938	99	28,246	55
Gold	497,005	13	157,693	2	-182,007	98	24,314	16
Silver	135,775	3	10,891	0	-18,485	100	7,594	0
Copper	182,352	14	-30,696	20	31,197	81	-501	22
Palladium	7,765	6	-3,825	1	4,441	100	-616	8
Platinum	68,232	36	-1,306	2	-3,381	100	4,687	27
Natural Gas	987,740	0	-129,419	40	90,840	60	38,579	71
Brent	173,920	19	-42,677	40	41,434	62	1,243	26
Heating Oil	269,168	23	7,508	53	-25,743	44	18,235	62
Soybeans	653,337	11	137,193	56	-106,705	52	-30,488	20
Corn	1,338,054	0	328,102	72	-274,110	33	-53,992	12
Coffee	194,896	2	45,200	78	-47,147	26	1,947	9
Sugar	734,324	0	122,709	62	-132,877	43	10,168	20
Wheat	291,041	0	7,679	29	-1,871	57	-5,808	80

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 299,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 289,502 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	36.3	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	56.2	3.2
– Net Position:	299,692	-327,938	28,246
– Gross Longs:	396,046	599,957	80,880
– Gross Shorts:	96,354	927,895	52,634
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.4	98.6	54.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	12.6	-14.1

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,010 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	53.8	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.3	30.0	2.9
– Net Position:	-42,677	41,434	1,243
– Gross Longs:	25,712	93,538	6,241
– Gross Shorts:	68,389	52,104	4,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.6	62.2	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	15.5	-20.3

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -129,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	40.8	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	31.6	2.4
– Net Position:	-129,419	90,840	38,579
– Gross Longs:	203,204	402,705	62,574
– Gross Shorts:	332,623	311,865	23,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.7	59.5	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	8.4	-28.5

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	53.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	68.4	4.4
– Net Position:	32,099	-42,454	10,355
– Gross Longs:	76,657	154,967	23,177
– Gross Shorts:	44,558	197,421	12,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	94.6	81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	4.3	-17.4

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,564 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.5	52.6	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	62.1	8.2
– Net Position:	7,508	-25,743	18,235
– Gross Longs:	44,423	141,515	40,222
– Gross Shorts:	36,915	167,258	21,987
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	43.9	61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-9.9	-5.4

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,052 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	68.6	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.8	57.9	0.2
– Net Position:	-7,349	7,041	308
– Gross Longs:	18,077	45,029	456
– Gross Shorts:	25,426	37,988	148
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	20.4	21.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-7.5	-13.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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02 Jul

COT Week 26 Charts: Stock Market Speculators bets dropped this week led by S&P500 Mini & Nasdaq Mini

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The stock market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as three out of the eight stock markets we cover had very small gains in positioning this week while five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was Russell 2000 Mini (976 contracts) with the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (400 contracts) and VIX (354 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

Meanwhile, leading the decreases in speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-24,907 contracts) and the Nasdaq Mini (-6,616 contracts) with the MSCI Emerging Markets Mini (-6,141 contracts), MSCI EAFE Mini (-2,182 contracts) and Nikkei 225 USD (-23 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish and below 20 percent is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq Mini leads currently with an extreme bullish score of 89 percent. The VIX is also at an extreme bullish score of 84.4 percent while on the downside, the Russell 2000 Mini (1 percent) and the Dow Jones Mini (4.6 percent) are both in extreme bearish positions.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Nikkei 225 Yen (15 percent), Nasdaq Mini (5 percent) and the Nikkei 225 USD (2 percent) are the only markets with rising scores over the past six weeks. The S&P Mini (-38 percent) and the Russell 2000 Mini (-21 percent) lead the downward trends of strength scores.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-28-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,248,771	6	-139,226	30	168,405	96	-29,179	20
Nikkei 225	13,442	8	-1,615	70	2,101	40	-486	22
Nasdaq-Mini	248,045	41	24,190	89	-19,930	14	-4,260	40
DowJones-Mini	66,759	23	-25,073	5	29,675	99	-4,602	14
VIX	257,123	14	-49,569	84	56,789	17	-7,220	56
Nikkei 225 Yen	56,111	38	2,330	41	24,398	87	-26,728	20

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -49,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 354 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	54.5	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.7	32.4	11.4
– Net Position:	-49,569	56,789	-7,220
– Gross Longs:	44,726	140,039	22,123
– Gross Shorts:	94,295	83,250	29,343
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.4	16.7	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	4.2	6.6

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -139,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -114,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	76.8	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	69.3	11.3
– Net Position:	-139,226	168,405	-29,179
– Gross Longs:	248,313	1,726,190	223,854
– Gross Shorts:	387,539	1,557,785	253,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.4	96.1	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.1	39.6	-3.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	70.5	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.1	26.1	21.8
– Net Position:	-25,073	29,675	-4,602
– Gross Longs:	9,011	47,089	9,948
– Gross Shorts:	34,084	17,414	14,550
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	98.9	13.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	4.9	-12.8

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,190 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	51.9	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	59.9	16.0
– Net Position:	24,190	-19,930	-4,260
– Gross Longs:	78,987	128,769	35,528
– Gross Shorts:	54,797	148,699	39,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	14.2	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-6.6	3.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -104,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 976 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	88.3	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	69.0	4.2
– Net Position:	-104,620	109,982	-5,362
– Gross Longs:	41,196	503,528	18,674
– Gross Shorts:	145,816	393,546	24,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.6	100.0	11.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.1	20.1	-4.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	52.1	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	36.5	19.8
– Net Position:	-1,615	2,101	-486
– Gross Longs:	4,220	7,007	2,177
– Gross Shorts:	5,835	4,906	2,663
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.8	40.1	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-10.4	22.2

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	92.2	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	92.3	1.3
– Net Position:	-1,986	-510	2,496
– Gross Longs:	19,973	360,111	7,717
– Gross Shorts:	21,959	360,621	5,221
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.8	79.9	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	0.5	6.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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