InvestMacro

COT Currency Speculator Weekly Changes led higher by Brazilian Real & Euro bets

The latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that large forex speculators raised their bets for most of the currency futures markets. The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Brazilian Real & Euro bets

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian real (22,001 contracts) and the Euro (11,327 contracts) with the Australian dollar (893 contracts), US Dollar Index (592 contracts), New Zealand dollar (378 contracts) and the Bitcoin (26 contracts) having positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the British pound sterling (-21,262 contracts) and the Japanese yen (-16,658 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (-6,269 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,775 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-430 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency changes this week is the sharp gain in the Brazilian Real speculator positions this week. Speculators boosted the Brazilian currency bets by the largest weekly amount since March and have increased bullish bets in six out of the past eight weeks. The overall speculator standing now sits at the most bullish level in ten weeks, dating back to June 28th. The Real futures and spot prices have been range-bound in trading and are expected to stay that way as a presidential election comes up on October 2nd.

The Euro currency bets this week jumped by the most in fourteen weeks (+11,327 contracts) as the European Central Bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points on Thursday. This week’s gain broke a streak of three weeks of speculator bet declines. The overall speculator positioning is relatively tame at a level of just -36,349 contracts despite the Euro currency’s exchange rate versus the US Dollar. The EURUSD is currently trading right near parity (1.0048) and not too far from 20-year lows. Comparatively, when the Euro speculator positions were last consistently near or below -100,000 net contracts in 2019, the EURUSD was trading above the 1.20 exchange rate. The outlook for the European economy is not looking great as a low growth environment could combine with a potential energy crisis shaping up for this winter (due to the Russia-Ukraine war) – so it will be interesting to see if speculator positioning follows the Euro lower or if the exchange rate is near a bottom.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	61,662	92	36,107	85	-38,458	15	2,351	42
EUR	721,678	91	-36,349	24	19,610	82	16,739	2
GBP	280,937	100	-50,432	29	69,958	78	-19,526	6
JPY	281,266	100	-58,189	33	77,669	74	-19,480	14
CHF	48,226	37	-4,037	46	16,867	70	-12,830	14
CAD	160,567	37	17,910	59	-18,916	53	1,006	32
AUD	178,232	66	-56,500	32	63,784	66	-7,284	35
NZD	46,796	37	-2,746	67	6,500	40	-3,754	8
MXN	199,161	49	-29,460	15	25,310	83	4,150	61
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	50,005	40	30,860	81	-32,482	20	1,622	84
Bitcoin	15,337	90	1,322	100	-1,301	0	-21	12

Bitcoin, US Dollar Index & Brazilian Real at top of Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Bitcoin (100.0 percent), the US Dollar Index (85.2 percent) and the Brazilian Real (80.7 percent) lead the currency markets at the top of their respective ranges and are all in bullish extreme positions with scores above 80 percent. The New Zealand Dollar (66.7 percent) and Canadian Dollar (59.5 percent) come in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (14.8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is in a bearish extreme level below 20 percent. The next lowest strength scores are for the EuroFX (23.8 percent), the British Pound Sterling (29.2 percent) and the Australian Dollar (32.4 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (85.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (84.2 percent)
EuroFX (23.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (20.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (29.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (43.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (46.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (50.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (59.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (66.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (32.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (31.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (66.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (66.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.0 percent)
Brazil Real (80.7 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (59.1 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (99.5 percent)

Bitcoin, Real and Swiss Franc lead the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Bitcoin (25.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (18.8 percent) and the Swiss Franc (18.4 percent) fill out the next highest movers in the latest trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-8.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the only other market with a lower trend scores was the US Dollar Index (-7.4 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-7.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.9 percent)
EuroFX (1.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-1.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (2.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (23.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (2.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (10.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (21.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (2.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (19.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-13.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (2.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.7 percent)
Brazil Real (18.8 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-1.6 percent)
Bitcoin (25.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (31.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	85.3	3.1	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	65.5	5.1
– Net Position:	36,107	-38,458	2,351
– Gross Longs:	52,607	1,912	5,476
– Gross Shorts:	16,500	40,370	3,125
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.2	14.7	42.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	7.7	-4.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -36,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,676 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	56.7	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	54.0	9.2
– Net Position:	-36,349	19,610	16,739
– Gross Longs:	205,277	409,460	83,493
– Gross Shorts:	241,626	389,850	66,754
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	81.6	2.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	0.3	-10.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,432 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,262 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,170 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	67.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.7	42.6	15.0
– Net Position:	-50,432	69,958	-19,526
– Gross Longs:	52,731	189,617	22,607
– Gross Shorts:	103,163	119,659	42,133
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.2	78.4	6.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-0.7	-5.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,531 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	68.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.6	40.3	15.5
– Net Position:	-58,189	77,669	-19,480
– Gross Longs:	56,002	191,138	24,109
– Gross Shorts:	114,191	113,469	43,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.0	73.5	13.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	1.9	-14.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -4,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,262 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	55.1	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	20.1	46.6
– Net Position:	-4,037	16,867	-12,830
– Gross Longs:	10,882	26,584	9,620
– Gross Shorts:	14,919	9,717	22,450
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	70.4	14.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.4	-6.0	-11.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 17,910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,179 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	41.4	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	53.2	19.9
– Net Position:	17,910	-18,916	1,006
– Gross Longs:	57,185	66,485	33,039
– Gross Shorts:	39,275	85,401	32,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.5	53.0	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	2.7	-10.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -56,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 893 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,393 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	66.7	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.4	30.9	15.0
– Net Position:	-56,500	63,784	-7,284
– Gross Longs:	33,305	118,817	19,403
– Gross Shorts:	89,805	55,033	26,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.4	66.5	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	9.8	-9.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.7	55.3	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.5	41.5	13.4
– Net Position:	-2,746	6,500	-3,754
– Gross Longs:	17,165	25,900	2,540
– Gross Shorts:	19,911	19,400	6,294
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.7	40.4	8.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-1.7	-3.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.8	45.6	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.6	32.9	1.6
– Net Position:	-29,460	25,310	4,150
– Gross Longs:	97,112	90,882	7,269
– Gross Shorts:	126,572	65,572	3,119
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	83.4	60.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-0.6	4.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 22,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.9	14.4	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	79.3	3.5
– Net Position:	30,860	-32,482	1,622
– Gross Longs:	39,451	7,177	3,374
– Gross Shorts:	8,591	39,659	1,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.7	19.6	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-19.4	8.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 26 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.1	0.4	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.5	8.9	6.4
– Net Position:	1,322	-1,301	-21
– Gross Longs:	12,743	63	956
– Gross Shorts:	11,421	1,364	977
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	1.3	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.2	-57.5	-5.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our Weekly COT Newsletter by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

11 Sep

COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro

The latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that speculator positioning was lower across the board. The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes are lower led by Gold & Silver

The COT precious metals speculator bets were lower this week as all five of the metals markets recorded lower contracts.

Leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-13,877 contracts) with Silver (-4,513 contracts), Platinum (-1,373 contracts), Copper (-735 contracts) and Palladium (-473 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals changes this week is the continued decline in the Gold speculator positions. Gold speculative bets have declined for four straight weeks and by a total of -38,994 contracts over that time-frame. This weakness has brought the overall Gold speculator standing (currently at +103,857 contracts) to the lowest level in six weeks, dating back to July 26th. The average speculator position over 2022 has been a total of +185,566 contracts and compared to this week’s position, illustrates the weakness in speculator sentiment for Gold. The futures price is currently in a downtrend after hitting a high over $2,078 in March of this year and closed this week at $1,728.

The Silver speculative positioning has continued to fall lower. The Silver speculator bets have declined for three straight weeks and have now been in a bearish position for three straight weeks as well. The overall speculator standing is currently at -12,784 contracts which is the lowest or most bearish level since May 28th of 2019, a span of 171 weeks. The Silver futures price has dipped below $18 in recent weeks but has found consistent support at that level. This week the Silver price closed higher for the week at $18.75 following three straight weeks of decline.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,480,320	1	214,478	1	-240,417	99	25,939	43
Gold	465,908	4	103,857	4	-114,064	98	10,207	0
Silver	138,300	5	-12,784	0	5,055	100	7,729	6
Copper	160,251	2	-23,990	19	26,820	84	-2,830	9
Palladium	6,065	1	-1,602	14	2,129	87	-527	13
Platinum	78,610	53	-6,751	0	3,152	100	3,599	12
Natural Gas	984,642	5	-138,638	37	105,802	64	32,836	58
Brent	163,666	11	-36,388	50	32,508	47	3,880	62
Heating Oil	280,210	27	17,860	69	-36,089	33	18,229	62
Soybeans	606,187	7	81,251	38	-50,826	71	-30,425	20
Corn	1,280,087	2	286,547	67	-230,702	39	-55,845	11
Coffee	193,938	7	47,168	80	-49,276	25	2,108	19
Sugar	760,601	11	57,771	49	-61,944	56	4,173	13
Wheat	289,329	0	-9,759	6	13,677	79	-3,918	90

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that all the metals markets are currently in bearish extreme scores under 20 percent. Copper (18.8 percent) is at the highest level of the metals currently followed by Palladium (13.8 percent) and Gold (4.3 percent). Silver (0.0 percent) and Platinum (0.0 percent) are currently at the bottom of their 3-year ranges of strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (4.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (9.6 percent)
Silver (0.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (5.0 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.4 percent)
Platinum (0.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.8 percent)
Palladium (13.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (10.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Gold (4.3 percent) and Copper (2.0 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Silver (-9.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Platinum at -3.1 percent.

Move Statistics:
Gold (4.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.7 percent)
Silver (-9.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (-10.6 percent)
Copper (2.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.5 percent)
Platinum (-3.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-1.5 percent)
Palladium (10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 103,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.7	27.8	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	52.3	6.1
– Net Position:	103,857	-114,064	10,207
– Gross Longs:	231,527	129,683	38,798
– Gross Shorts:	127,670	243,747	28,591
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	98.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-2.0	-14.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	40.4	16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	36.7	10.8
– Net Position:	-12,784	5,055	7,729
– Gross Longs:	51,714	55,823	22,687
– Gross Shorts:	64,498	50,768	14,958
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	6.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	7.3	2.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -23,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	51.2	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	34.5	9.6
– Net Position:	-23,990	26,820	-2,830
– Gross Longs:	46,581	82,038	12,521
– Gross Shorts:	70,571	55,218	15,351
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.8	84.3	8.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-0.0	-14.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.7	38.7	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.3	34.7	5.6
– Net Position:	-6,751	3,152	3,599
– Gross Longs:	33,598	30,451	8,025
– Gross Shorts:	40,349	27,299	4,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	4.2	-14.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,129 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	62.9	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.6	27.8	22.9
– Net Position:	-1,602	2,129	-527
– Gross Longs:	1,344	3,814	863
– Gross Shorts:	2,946	1,685	1,390
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	86.7	13.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-9.9	-2.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions

11 Sep

COT Bonds Speculator bets led lower this week by Fed Funds & 2-Year Bond

By InvestMacro

The latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that bond speculators mostly lowered their positioning for this week. The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by the Fed Funds & 2-Year Bond

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (74,748 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (63,826 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (59,565 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Fed Funds (-66,116 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (-45,142 contracts), the Long US Bond (-16,383 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (-4,726 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-1,621 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,566,532	14	-2,782,654	2	3,146,671	97	-364,017	24
FedFunds	1,379,784	32	18,650	42	-9,128	59	-9,522	35
2-Year	1,954,427	8	-326,742	16	412,994	100	-86,252	13
Long T-Bond	1,209,340	46	-85,217	57	64,174	33	21,043	69
10-Year	3,545,995	33	-376,277	15	490,281	80	-114,004	53
5-Year	4,009,309	52	-505,891	9	659,349	94	-153,458	39

US Treasury Bond at top of Strength Scores, Eurodollar lowest

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond leads the bonds markets and is the only market above the midpoint of its 3-year range at 56.9 percent. The Fed Funds (41.9 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores followed by the Ultra US Treasury Bond (39.4 percent).

On the downside, the Eurodollar (1.9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the 5-Year Bond (9.0 percent), the 10-Year Bond (15.2 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (16.3 percent). All of these markets are currently in extreme bearish levels with scores below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (41.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (50.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (16.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (25.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (15.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (22.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (24.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (56.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (62.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (39.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (40.1 percent)
Eurodollar (1.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.5 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bond is only market with positive Strength Trend

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Ultra 10-Year Bond (2.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds and is the only market with a positive six-week trend score.

The 2-Year Bond (-47.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with the lowest trend scores was the 5-Year Bond (-28.9 percent) followed by the 10-Year Bond (-26.8 percent) and the Fed Funds (-15.9 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-15.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-3.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-47.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-44.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (-28.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-46.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (-26.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-50.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (2.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-12.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-2.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-4.1 percent)
Eurodollar (-1.8 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-3.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,782,654 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 74,748 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,857,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	70.2	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.0	37.3	7.9
– Net Position:	-2,782,654	3,146,671	-364,017
– Gross Longs:	661,773	6,716,597	396,477
– Gross Shorts:	3,444,427	3,569,926	760,494
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.9	97.3	24.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	3.4	-19.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,650 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -66,116 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	73.0	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	73.7	3.0
– Net Position:	18,650	-9,128	-9,522
– Gross Longs:	178,764	1,007,424	31,787
– Gross Shorts:	160,114	1,016,552	41,309
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.9	58.8	35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	15.8	-4.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -326,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -45,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -281,600 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.6	84.4	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	63.3	11.8
– Net Position:	-326,742	412,994	-86,252
– Gross Longs:	89,223	1,650,101	143,560
– Gross Shorts:	415,965	1,237,107	229,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.3	100.0	12.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-47.8	50.1	-6.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -505,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 59,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -565,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	84.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	67.7	11.4
– Net Position:	-505,891	659,349	-153,458
– Gross Longs:	264,384	3,375,543	304,706
– Gross Shorts:	770,275	2,716,194	458,164
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.0	93.7	38.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.9	25.5	-5.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -376,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 63,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -440,103 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	79.7	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	65.8	12.7
– Net Position:	-376,277	490,281	-114,004
– Gross Longs:	279,865	2,824,708	336,063
– Gross Shorts:	656,142	2,334,427	450,067
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.2	80.1	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.8	26.6	-11.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,986 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	79.8	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	69.1	18.8
– Net Position:	-22,712	143,014	-120,302
– Gross Longs:	85,767	1,064,996	130,034
– Gross Shorts:	108,479	921,982	250,336
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.9	77.0	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-2.1	-0.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -85,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	76.2	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	70.8	12.1
– Net Position:	-85,217	64,174	21,043
– Gross Longs:	72,558	920,966	167,960
– Gross Shorts:	157,775	856,792	146,917
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.9	33.5	69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	12.6	2.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -357,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -355,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	82.2	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	58.1	8.8
– Net Position:	-357,415	327,748	29,667
– Gross Longs:	70,713	1,118,090	148,948
– Gross Shorts:	428,128	790,342	119,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	75.4	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	12.8	-13.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds COT Updates Financial News investing

11 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Speculator bets trend lower led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes go lower led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

COT soft commodities speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other eight markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (3,150 contracts) with Live Cattle (3,099 contracts) and Wheat (1,740 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-9,054 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-6,858 contracts), Soybean Oil (-5,176 contracts), Sugar (-4,780 contracts), Cocoa (-3,847 contracts), Soybeans (-2,311 contracts), Coffee (-1,519 contracts) and Cotton (-1,055 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,480,320	1	214,478	1	-240,417	99	25,939	43
Gold	465,908	4	103,857	4	-114,064	98	10,207	0
Silver	138,300	5	-12,784	0	5,055	100	7,729	6
Copper	160,251	2	-23,990	19	26,820	84	-2,830	9
Palladium	6,065	1	-1,602	14	2,129	87	-527	13
Platinum	78,610	53	-6,751	0	3,152	100	3,599	12
Natural Gas	984,642	5	-138,638	37	105,802	64	32,836	58
Brent	163,666	11	-36,388	50	32,508	47	3,880	62
Heating Oil	280,210	27	17,860	69	-36,089	33	18,229	62
Soybeans	606,187	7	81,251	38	-50,826	71	-30,425	20
Corn	1,280,087	2	286,547	67	-230,702	39	-55,845	11
Coffee	193,938	7	47,168	80	-49,276	25	2,108	19
Sugar	760,601	11	57,771	49	-61,944	56	4,173	13
Wheat	289,329	0	-9,759	6	13,677	79	-3,918	90

Soybean Meal and Coffee lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Soybean Meal (87.1 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position with a score above 80 percent. Coffee (79.6 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity markets market in strength scores followed by Corn (66.6 percent) and Live Cattle (58.1 percent).

On the downside, Wheat (6.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and remains as the only market in a bearish extreme level with a score under 20 percent. The next lowest is Cocoa (21.3 percent) followed by Soybean Oil (36.4 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (66.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (66.2 percent)
Sugar (48.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (49.5 percent)
Coffee (79.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (80.9 percent)
Soybeans (38.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (39.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (36.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (40.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (87.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (92.2 percent)
Live Cattle (58.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (54.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (46.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (53.8 percent)
Cotton (51.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (51.9 percent)
Cocoa (21.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (25.1 percent)
Wheat (6.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (4.1 percent)

Live Cattle and Soybean Oil at top of Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Live Cattle (33.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Soybean Oil (19.1 percent), Coffee (16.0 percent) and Corn (12.8 percent) fill out the next highest movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-12.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Sugar (-1.3 percent) followed by Soybeans at -1.2 percent.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (12.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.4 percent)
Sugar (-1.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-13.3 percent)
Coffee (16.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.9 percent)
Soybeans (-1.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-5.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (19.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.6 percent)
Live Cattle (33.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (47.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (1.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (14.8 percent)
Cotton (8.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (9.7 percent)
Cocoa (1.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.8 percent)
Wheat (-12.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-23.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 286,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 283,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	46.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	64.2	13.5
– Net Position:	286,547	-230,702	-55,845
– Gross Longs:	406,895	590,573	116,649
– Gross Shorts:	120,348	821,275	172,494
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	39.0	10.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-13.1	-4.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 57,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	53.9	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	62.0	7.8
– Net Position:	57,771	-61,944	4,173
– Gross Longs:	178,344	409,718	63,249
– Gross Shorts:	120,573	471,662	59,076
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	56.4	13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	0.7	3.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 47,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,519 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	45.4	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.2	70.8	3.7
– Net Position:	47,168	-49,276	2,108
– Gross Longs:	59,224	88,013	9,278
– Gross Shorts:	12,056	137,289	7,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.6	24.5	18.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-18.5	17.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 81,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	55.2	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	63.5	11.3
– Net Position:	81,251	-50,826	-30,425
– Gross Longs:	151,858	334,375	37,854
– Gross Shorts:	70,607	385,201	68,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	71.1	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	2.1	-4.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 48,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	52.1	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	66.2	6.4
– Net Position:	48,782	-55,146	6,364
– Gross Longs:	81,987	205,203	31,353
– Gross Shorts:	33,205	260,349	24,989
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.4	65.5	37.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.1	-19.9	14.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 107,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,054 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	43.7	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.8	76.3	6.5
– Net Position:	107,135	-126,646	19,511
– Gross Longs:	125,905	170,122	44,983
– Gross Shorts:	18,770	296,768	25,472
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.1	17.1	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	-0.1	-1.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 62,830 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,731 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.6	32.3	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	52.5	11.6
– Net Position:	62,830	-59,885	-2,945
– Gross Longs:	111,433	95,824	31,503
– Gross Shorts:	48,603	155,709	34,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.1	31.3	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.7	-34.3	-6.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,341 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,858 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,199 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.3	37.3	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	50.8	12.0
– Net Position:	36,341	-29,399	-6,942
– Gross Longs:	79,138	81,384	19,248
– Gross Shorts:	42,797	110,783	26,190
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	58.7	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-2.6	6.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	44.7	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	72.0	3.5
– Net Position:	50,712	-57,850	7,138
– Gross Longs:	77,522	94,458	14,536
– Gross Shorts:	26,810	152,308	7,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.2	48.6	56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-10.6	31.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	47.2	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	49.6	3.6
– Net Position:	4,464	-7,224	2,760
– Gross Longs:	93,816	137,463	13,152
– Gross Shorts:	89,352	144,687	10,392
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.3	80.4	24.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-2.1	10.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	41.9	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.0	37.2	11.4
– Net Position:	-9,759	13,677	-3,918
– Gross Longs:	88,611	121,265	29,169
– Gross Shorts:	98,370	107,588	33,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.4	79.1	90.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	8.0	21.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

COT Updates Financial News investing Soft Commodities

11 Sep

COT Energy Speculators Weekly Bets led lower by WTI Crude & Natural Gas

By InvestMacro

The latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that speculators reduced their positioning in the energy markets. The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by WTI Crude & Natural Gas

The COT energy market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil (3,625 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,147 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-14,711 contracts) and Natural Gas (-9,873 contracts) with Heating Oil (-7,336 contracts) and Gasoline (-536 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,480,320	1	214,478	1	-240,417	99	25,939	43
Gold	465,908	4	103,857	4	-114,064	98	10,207	0
Silver	138,300	5	-12,784	0	5,055	100	7,729	6
Copper	160,251	2	-23,990	19	26,820	84	-2,830	9
Palladium	6,065	1	-1,602	14	2,129	87	-527	13
Platinum	78,610	53	-6,751	0	3,152	100	3,599	12
Natural Gas	984,642	5	-138,638	37	105,802	64	32,836	58
Brent	163,666	11	-36,388	50	32,508	47	3,880	62
Heating Oil	280,210	27	17,860	69	-36,089	33	18,229	62
Soybeans	606,187	7	81,251	38	-50,826	71	-30,425	20
Corn	1,280,087	2	286,547	67	-230,702	39	-55,845	11
Coffee	193,938	7	47,168	80	-49,276	25	2,108	19
Sugar	760,601	11	57,771	49	-61,944	56	4,173	13
Wheat	289,329	0	-9,759	6	13,677	79	-3,918	90

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Heating Oil (68.7 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (67.6 percent) lead the energy markets currently. Brent Crude Oil (50.1 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores and above the 3-Year midpoint.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (1.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (1.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (4.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (50.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (44.0 percent)
Natural Gas (37.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (39.9 percent)
Gasoline (21.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (21.7 percent)
Heating Oil (68.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (79.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (67.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (59.4 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (20.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (8.6 percent) and Gasoline (3.8 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude Oil (-11.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Natural Gas (-6.1 percent) followed by Heating Oil (-1.2 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-11.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-11.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (8.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (2.2 percent)
Natural Gas (-6.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-2.5 percent)
Gasoline (3.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (9.9 percent)
Heating Oil (-1.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (23.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (20.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (6.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 214,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 229,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	40.5	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	56.8	3.6
– Net Position:	214,478	-240,417	25,939
– Gross Longs:	326,007	599,689	78,942
– Gross Shorts:	111,529	840,106	53,003
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.0	99.4	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	11.6	2.8

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -36,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,625 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,013 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	52.6	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.8	32.8	2.8
– Net Position:	-36,388	32,508	3,880
– Gross Longs:	28,735	86,126	8,497
– Gross Shorts:	65,123	53,618	4,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	47.3	61.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-13.4	40.0

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -138,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -128,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	42.3	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	31.5	3.4
– Net Position:	-138,638	105,802	32,836
– Gross Longs:	163,659	416,041	66,617
– Gross Shorts:	302,297	310,239	33,781
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.0	64.2	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	7.2	-5.7

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 49,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,702 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.7	47.3	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	68.1	6.5
– Net Position:	49,166	-50,738	1,572
– Gross Longs:	79,830	115,591	17,453
– Gross Shorts:	30,664	166,329	15,881
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.2	82.7	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-0.4	-22.3

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	53.5	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	66.4	8.5
– Net Position:	17,860	-36,089	18,229
– Gross Longs:	42,125	149,862	42,127
– Gross Shorts:	24,265	185,951	23,898
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.7	32.8	61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-2.7	11.7

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	73.8	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.2	58.2	0.1
– Net Position:	-10,420	10,122	298
– Gross Longs:	15,696	47,944	388
– Gross Shorts:	26,116	37,822	90
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	4.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.6	32.2	21.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.1	-20.3	1.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

COT Updates Energy Financial News investing

11 Sep

Stock Market Speculator bets lower this week led by Dow Jones Mini & Nasdaq Mini

By InvestMacro

The latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that stock market speculators added bearish bets on the week. The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Dow Jones Mini (-8,188 contracts) & Nasdaq Mini (-4,761 contracts)

The COT stock market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was the VIX (9,201 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE Mini (3,096 contracts) and the S&P500 Mini (912 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (-8,188 contracts) and the Nasdaq Mini (-4,761 contracts) with the Russell 2000 Mini (-4,456 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-78 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,314,290	8	-238,720	12	301,282	93	-62,562	13
Nikkei 225	14,151	10	-4,641	55	2,949	44	1,692	50
Nasdaq-Mini	286,754	64	22,046	87	1,869	28	-23,915	0
DowJones-Mini	76,726	37	-9,608	25	10,386	73	-778	34
VIX	326,476	35	-88,734	65	95,211	35	-6,477	60
Nikkei 225 Yen	77,781	69	-2,622	26	32,959	100	-30,337	12

Nasdaq-Mini & VIX lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (87.3 percent) remains the strength leader in stocks and continues to be in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). The VIX (64.8 percent) comes in as the next highest stocks market in strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (12.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the Russell 2000-Mini (13.7 percent). Both of these markets are below 20 percent and currently in a bearish extreme level.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (64.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (60.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (12.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (11.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (25.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (36.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (87.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (90.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (13.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (16.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (24.4 percent)

DowJones-Mini leads Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (15.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for stocks this week. The EAFE-Mini (6.6 percent), the Russell 2000-Mini (5.4 percent) and the VIX (1.9 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the Nasdaq-Mini (-5.5 percent) followed by the S&P500-Mini (-0.2 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (1.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (-14.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-0.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-5.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (15.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (19.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-5.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-0.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (5.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (5.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (6.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (13.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -88,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,935 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	59.6	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.4	30.5	9.2
– Net Position:	-88,734	95,211	-6,477
– Gross Longs:	43,204	194,652	23,450
– Gross Shorts:	131,938	99,441	29,927
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	35.5	59.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-2.1	2.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -238,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 912 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -239,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	77.3	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	64.3	12.5
– Net Position:	-238,720	301,282	-62,562
– Gross Longs:	226,374	1,789,211	227,788
– Gross Shorts:	465,094	1,487,929	290,350
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.0	92.7	13.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	1.5	-2.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	52.9	15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	39.4	16.7
– Net Position:	-9,608	10,386	-778
– Gross Longs:	23,230	40,613	12,001
– Gross Shorts:	32,838	30,227	12,779
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.5	72.9	34.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-22.4	27.5

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 22,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,761 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,807 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	55.9	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	55.2	20.8
– Net Position:	22,046	1,869	-23,915
– Gross Longs:	85,430	160,216	35,685
– Gross Shorts:	63,384	158,347	59,600
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	27.7	0.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	16.8	-35.9

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -95,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,456 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	86.0	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	68.2	4.4
– Net Position:	-95,605	96,814	-1,209
– Gross Longs:	44,891	466,378	22,920
– Gross Shorts:	140,496	369,564	24,129
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.7	85.9	23.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-6.9	11.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	53.3	34.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	32.5	22.3
– Net Position:	-4,641	2,949	1,692
– Gross Longs:	1,729	7,548	4,844
– Gross Shorts:	6,370	4,599	3,152
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	44.4	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	-1.3	37.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	91.4	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	89.3	1.6
– Net Position:	-10,768	8,643	2,125
– Gross Longs:	23,221	370,798	8,690
– Gross Shorts:	33,989	362,155	6,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	72.9	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-5.5	-8.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter by Email

*COT Reports: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT Updates Financial News investing Stock Market News

09 Sep

Tiny algae could help fix concrete’s dirty little climate secret – 4 innovative ways to clean up this notoriously hard to decarbonize industry

By Wil Srubar, University of Colorado Boulder

Humans produce more concrete than any other material on the planet. It is the literal foundation of modern civilization – and for good reason.

Concrete is strong, durable, affordable and available to almost every community on the planet. However, the global concrete industry has a dirty little secret – it alone is responsible for more than 8% of global carbon dioxide emissions – more than three times the emissions associated with aviation. Those emissions doubled in the past two decades as Asian cities grew, and demand is continuing to expand at an unprecedented rate.

It’s also one of the most difficult industries to decarbonize, in part because manufacturers are typically hyperlocal and operate on slim margins, leaving little to invest in technologies that could lower emissions.

However, difficult does not necessarily mean impossible.

Architects, engineers, scientists and cement and concrete manufacturers around the world are investigating and piloting several new strategies and technologies that can significantly reduce the carbon footprint of cement and concrete. Here are a few of them, including one my team at the University of Colorado is working on: figuring out ways to use all-natural microalgae to solve concrete’s biggest emissions problem – cement.

It doesn’t have to be 100% cement

The primary culprit behind concrete’s climate impact is the production of portland cement – the powder used to make concrete.

Cement is made by heating limestone rich in calcium carbonate to over 2,640 degrees Fahrenheit (1,450 Celsius). The calcium carbonate decomposes into calcium oxide, or quicklime, and carbon dioxide – a climate-warming greenhouse gas. This chemical reaction, what the Portland Cement Association calls a “chemical fact of life,” is responsible for a whopping 60% or so of cement-related emissions. The remainder comes from energy to heat the kiln.

One of the most promising short-term strategies for reducing concrete’s carbon footprint uses materials like fly ash from coal plants, slag from iron production, and calcined clay to replace some of the portland cement in concrete mixtures. These are known as supplementary cementitious materials.

Using 20% to 50% fly ash, slag or calcined clay can reduce the embodied carbon of concrete mixtures by about the same percentages.

Another method uses small amounts of ground limestone to replace some of the cement and is becoming a best practice. After rigorous testing, the California Department of Transportation recently announced it would allow portland-limestone cement mixes, known as PLC, in its projects. With 5% to 15% ground limestone replacing cement, PLC can reduce emissions by about the same amount. California’s decision quickly led other states to approve the use of PLC.

Many researchers are now advocating for the adoption of limestone calcined-clay cement, which contains about 55% portland cement, 15% ground limestone and 30% calcined clay. It could cut emissions by more than 45%.

What electrification and carbon capture can do

Cement plants have also started testing carbon capture technologies and electric kilns to slash emissions. But carbon capture is expensive, and scaling the technology to meet the demand of the cement and concrete industry is no easy feat.

Kiln electrification faces the same barriers. New technologies and large capital investments are required to electrify one of the world’s most energy-intensive processes. However, the promise of zero combustion-related emissions is enticing enough for some entrepreneurs and cement companies – including those interested in using 100% solar energy for cement production – who are racing to find solutions that are both technologically and economically viable at scale.

The Inflation Reduction Act, which Congress passed in August 2022, could help put some of these technologies to wider use. It includes funding for modernizing equipment and adding carbon capture capabilities, as well as tax credit incentives for manufacturers to cut their emissions.

Going cement-free, possibly with algae

Another strategy is to produce functionally equivalent materials that contain no portland cement whatsoever.

Materials like alkali-activated slag or fly ash cement concrete are produced by combining slag, fly ash or both with a very strong base. These materials have been shown to cut carbon emissions by 90% or more, and they might meet scale and cost criteria, but they still face technical and regulatory challenges.

Some examples of low-carbon, portland cement-free concrete products that have gained market traction include wollastonite-based modular components, compressed earth blocks and prefabricated biocement products – including those produced using photosynthetic, biomineralizing microalgae.

Algae have also been used as an alternative biofuel for heating cement kilns, and algae cultivation systems have also been linked with cement production to capture carbon.

Author Wil Surubar describes his team’s work with algae to make concrete.

My team at the University of Colorado Boulder and I are looking into the use of algae-derived limestone for portland cement production, which could help eliminate 60% of the emissions associated with cement manufacturing. This technology is appealing because it is plug-and-play with conventional cement production.

Using concrete to lock captured CO2 away

Engineers are also experimenting with injecting captured carbon dioxide into concrete as well as using aggregates made of carbon dioxide in place of gravel or sand that is mixed into concrete.

It’s an exciting concept, but so far injection has yielded limited carbon dioxide reductions, and production of carbon-dioxide-storing aggregates has yet to scale up.

A growing problem

Ultimately, time will tell whether these and other technologies will live up to their promise.

What is certain is that there has been a worldwide reckoning within the cement and concrete industry that it has a problem to solve and no silver bullet solution. It may take a suite of solutions tailored to both local and global markets to address the immediate and long-term challenges of keeping up with an ever-growing population and rapidly changing climate.

About the Author:

Wil Srubar, Assistant Professor of Architectural Engineering and Materials Science, University of Colorado Boulder

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Financial News

09 Sep

Murrey Math Lines 09.09.2022 (Brent, S&P 500)

Article By RoboForex.com

BRENT

On H4, the quotes have bounced off the oversold area. They now are expected to rise over 1/8 and grow to the resistance level of 2/8. This movement should be interpreted as a correction of a downtrend. The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 0/8. In this case, the quotes will start falling again and may drop to the support level of -1/8.

On M15, growth can be additionally supported by a breakaway of the upper line of VoltyChannel.

S&P 500

On MH4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, which means they are in a downtrend. A test of 2/8 is expected, followed by a bounce off it and falling to the support level of 0/8. The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 2/8. In this case, the quotes may rise to 3/8.

On M15, a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel will increase the probability of falling.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Sep

Cost of living crisis: why plans to reform the Bank of England won’t help it stop spiralling inflation

By Shampa Roy-Mukherjee, University of East London and Michael Harrison, University of East London

The UK cost of living crisis has been building since early 2021. At 10.1%, the current rate of consumer price inflation is the highest in 40 years and the Bank of England believes it could pass 13% in October.

The pressure of price inflation on UK household budgets has been compounded by the fact that wage growth has not kept up. A 2.8% drop in average real wages between March and May 2022 has left many people with little room in their budgets to afford rising prices. Add to this the highest tax burden in 70 years and it’s no wonder UK households are struggling.

The government created a £37 billion cost of living support deal earlier this year to support households. Since then, however, the country’s dire economic situation has been used as political football. Both candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party spent the past few months suggesting economic policies designed to appeal to the 170,000 Conservative party members, a group that is predominantly white, British, male, Brexit-leaning, affluent and educated.

In addition to putting forward a low-tax strategy to boost economic growth, the eventual winner and new UK prime minister, Liz Truss, has also suggested reform of the UK’s central bank might be in order. But the kinds of changes she has suggested are unlikely to help the Bank of England tackle inflation and could actually threaten its independence from political control.

Tackling inflation

Some commentators have dubbed the Bank of England’s governor Andrew Bailey the “plank of England” in response to his claims that he could not have foreseen this economic crisis. In Bailey’s defence, the Bank of England has a toolkit full of fairly blunt instruments when it comes to managing severe inflation.

Its main function is to set monetary policy, which means influencing how much money is available in the economy and how much it costs people and businesses to borrow. Adjusting the Bank of England base rate is the main way to do this, but this involves a balancing act.

Increasing the base rate risks curtailing demand and investment, worsening the expected recession. On the other hand, reducing interest rates could exacerbate the already increasing levels of consumption of goods, potentially causing further inflation.

Rising UK inflation

The recent accusations over the Bank’s inability to keep inflation in line with its 2% target prompted Truss to suggest a review of the Bank’s remit during the Conservative party leadership contest. While Truss has since confirmed her belief in the independence of the bank from government control, she has backed a review into the targets it uses.

Truss has proposed shifting the emphasis away from the Bank’s current 2% target towards maintaining a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth target. This would see the bank make monetary policy decisions aimed at hitting a certain level of GDP growth, rather than trying to keep inflation at a specific level. This would see the Bank focus on attaining growth when managing the economy, rather than targeting price stability as it does now.

The blunt instruments currently at the Bank’s disposal have limited ability to affect demand-led growth, however. The UK economy is well on the path for a recession by the end of the year, so such a change would make no difference in the present crisis. As such, it’s unlikely this would really address the current inflation situation.

What such a change would do is increase the connection between the central bank and political representatives, however. The Bank of England has acted independently of political control since 1997. And while a mandate review would not necessarily erode this independence, any interest in guiding the central bank and holding its governor accountable to government could affect its ability to hold long-term policy ambitions free of political influence.

On the other hand, Truss could encourage a little more integration between the monetary policy set by the Bank of England and the fiscal policy set by the government’s spending and tax objectives. Since the bulk of inflation is caused by rising costs faced by firms who produce goods and services, government fiscal policy would be more effective in tackling it than the Bank’s monetary policy anyway.

Reforming financial regulation

The new prime minister also wants to shake up the UK’s financial regulators. While little detail has been provided by Truss about this plan, news reports say it could involve a merger of the Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA) and the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). This would take the PRA out of the control of the Bank of England, where it was placed after the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.

The Bank of England is tasked with maintaining the stability of the economy and ought to have a view beyond the short term. And since the PRA is tasked with looking at the stability of the financial system, it contributes greatly to the situational awareness of the central bank.

This kind of awareness was very much absent before the global financial crisis. Separating the PRA from the Bank could risk creating a similar blind spot in future.

A financial services and markets bill put before UK parliament in July 2022 also proposes adding promotion of growth to the remit of the existing regulators. This plan is worrying because it would expose the regulators to the government’s fiscal policy objectives.

Requiring financial regulators to focus on GDP growth targets would challenge the independence of the organisations tasked with maintaining stability and order in the UK financial system.

About the Author:

Shampa Roy-Mukherjee, Associate Professor in Economics, University of East London and Michael Harrison, Lecturer in Finance and FinTech, University of East London

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

09 Sep

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 09.09.2022 (USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The pair is testing the support area. It is moving under the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a downtrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud is expected at 0.9715, followed by falling to 0.9495. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 0.9835, which will mean further growth to 0.9925.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The pair has escaped the bearish channel, going inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which means a flat. Another test of the lower border of the Cloud at 1.1575 is expected, followed by growth to 1.1845. A signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.1475, which will entail further falling to 1.1385. The growth will be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1.1705.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The pair remains inside a strong descending impulse, going under the Ichimoku Cloud, which means a downtrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 1.3035 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.2890. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1.3175, which will entail further growth to 1.3265.

Article By RoboForex.com

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