By InvestMacro
The latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that speculators reduced their positioning in the energy markets. The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by WTI Crude & Natural Gas
The COT energy market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts.
Leading the gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil (3,625 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,147 contracts) also showing a positive week.
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The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-14,711 contracts) and Natural Gas (-9,873 contracts) with Heating Oil (-7,336 contracts) and Gasoline (-536 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
| Sep-06-2022 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 1,480,320 | 1 | 214,478 | 1 | -240,417 | 99 | 25,939 | 43 |
| Gold | 465,908 | 4 | 103,857 | 4 | -114,064 | 98 | 10,207 | 0 |
| Silver | 138,300 | 5 | -12,784 | 0 | 5,055 | 100 | 7,729 | 6 |
| Copper | 160,251 | 2 | -23,990 | 19 | 26,820 | 84 | -2,830 | 9 |
| Palladium | 6,065 | 1 | -1,602 | 14 | 2,129 | 87 | -527 | 13 |
| Platinum | 78,610 | 53 | -6,751 | 0 | 3,152 | 100 | 3,599 | 12 |
| Natural Gas | 984,642 | 5 | -138,638 | 37 | 105,802 | 64 | 32,836 | 58 |
| Brent | 163,666 | 11 | -36,388 | 50 | 32,508 | 47 | 3,880 | 62 |
| Heating Oil | 280,210 | 27 | 17,860 | 69 | -36,089 | 33 | 18,229 | 62 |
| Soybeans | 606,187 | 7 | 81,251 | 38 | -50,826 | 71 | -30,425 | 20 |
| Corn | 1,280,087 | 2 | 286,547 | 67 | -230,702 | 39 | -55,845 | 11 |
| Coffee | 193,938 | 7 | 47,168 | 80 | -49,276 | 25 | 2,108 | 19 |
| Sugar | 760,601 | 11 | 57,771 | 49 | -61,944 | 56 | 4,173 | 13 |
| Wheat | 289,329 | 0 | -9,759 | 6 | 13,677 | 79 | -3,918 | 90 |
Strength Scores
Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Heating Oil (68.7 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (67.6 percent) lead the energy markets currently. Brent Crude Oil (50.1 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores and above the 3-Year midpoint.
On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (1.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (1.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (4.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (50.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (44.0 percent)
Natural Gas (37.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (39.9 percent)
Gasoline (21.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (21.7 percent)
Heating Oil (68.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (79.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (67.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (59.4 percent)
Strength Trends
Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (20.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (8.6 percent) and Gasoline (3.8 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.
WTI Crude Oil (-11.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Natural Gas (-6.1 percent) followed by Heating Oil (-1.2 percent).
Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-11.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-11.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (8.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (2.2 percent)
Natural Gas (-6.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-2.5 percent)
Gasoline (3.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (9.9 percent)
Heating Oil (-1.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (23.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (20.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (6.0 percent)
Individual Markets:
WTI Crude Oil Futures:
The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 214,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 229,189 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.
| WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.0 | 40.5 | 5.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.5 | 56.8 | 3.6 |
| – Net Position: | 214,478 | -240,417 | 25,939 |
| – Gross Longs: | 326,007 | 599,689 | 78,942 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 111,529 | 840,106 | 53,003 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.9 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 1.0 | 99.4 | 43.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.8 | 11.6 | 2.8 |
Brent Crude Oil Futures:
The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -36,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,625 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,013 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.
| Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.6 | 52.6 | 5.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 39.8 | 32.8 | 2.8 |
| – Net Position: | -36,388 | 32,508 | 3,880 |
| – Gross Longs: | 28,735 | 86,126 | 8,497 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 65,123 | 53,618 | 4,617 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 50.1 | 47.3 | 61.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.6 | -13.4 | 40.0 |
Natural Gas Futures:
The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -138,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -128,765 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.
| Natural Gas Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.6 | 42.3 | 6.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.7 | 31.5 | 3.4 |
| – Net Position: | -138,638 | 105,802 | 32,836 |
| – Gross Longs: | 163,659 | 416,041 | 66,617 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 302,297 | 310,239 | 33,781 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 37.0 | 64.2 | 57.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.1 | 7.2 | -5.7 |
Gasoline Blendstock Futures:
The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 49,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,702 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 32.7 | 47.3 | 7.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.5 | 68.1 | 6.5 |
| – Net Position: | 49,166 | -50,738 | 1,572 |
| – Gross Longs: | 79,830 | 115,591 | 17,453 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 30,664 | 166,329 | 15,881 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.6 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 21.2 | 82.7 | 23.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.8 | -0.4 | -22.3 |
#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:
The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,196 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.
| Heating Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 15.0 | 53.5 | 15.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 8.7 | 66.4 | 8.5 |
| – Net Position: | 17,860 | -36,089 | 18,229 |
| – Gross Longs: | 42,125 | 149,862 | 42,127 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 24,265 | 185,951 | 23,898 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 68.7 | 32.8 | 61.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.2 | -2.7 | 11.7 |
Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:
The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,567 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.
| Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 24.2 | 73.8 | 0.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 40.2 | 58.2 | 0.1 |
| – Net Position: | -10,420 | 10,122 | 298 |
| – Gross Longs: | 15,696 | 47,944 | 388 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 26,116 | 37,822 | 90 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 4.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 67.6 | 32.2 | 21.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 20.1 | -20.3 | 1.4 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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