InvestMacro

Week Ahead: OPEC+, ECB may surprise markets

Markets generally dislike uncertainty.

Yet, that doesn’t stop traders and investors from trying to price in what they think is likely to happen in their view.

And if the official outcome doesn’t pan out according to market expectations, that usually triggers major volatility in prices, as positions are swiftly unwound.

With all that in mind, brace for potential surprises out of the OPEC+ and ECB meetings in the coming week, held alongside these major economic data releases and events:

Monday, September 5

JPY: Japan August services and composite PMIs (final)
AUD: Australia August inflation, services and composite PMIs (final)
CNH: China August Caixin services, composite PMIs
EUR: Eurozone July retail sales, August services and composite PMIs (final)
Brent: OPEC+ meeting
GBP: New UK Prime Minister to be announced
US markets closed for Labor Day

Tuesday, September 6

AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision
EUR: Germany July factory orders

Wednesday, September 7

AUD: Australia 2Q GDP
CNH: China August external trade
EUR: Eurozone 2Q GDP (final), Germany July industrial production
GBP: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey to appear before Treasury Committee
CAD: Bank of Canada rate decision
USD: Fed Beige Book, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speech
Apple’s “Far Out” event: latest iPhone and Apple watch release

Thursday, September 8

JPY: Japan 2Q GDP (final)
AUD: Australia July external trade, RBA Governor Philip Lowe speech
EUR: European Central Bank rate decision
USD: US weekly jobless claims
USD: Fed Speak – Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari
US crude: EIA weekly oil inventory report

Friday, September 9

CNH: China August CPI and PPI
CAD: Canada August unemployment

Brent oil has plunged below the psychologically-important $100/bbl mark this week, halving its year-to-date gains down to 28% at the time of writing.

Oil prices have been dragged lower by the risk-off mood across markets, amid concerns that global demand for the commodity is being eroded by the wave of policy tightening around the world.

The lockdown in Chengdu has further dampened the demand outlook, while the greenback’s recent surge also weighed on this dollar-denominated commodity.

In the lead up to the coming week’s OPEC+ meeting, the alliance’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, had floated the idea of triggering a supply cut, which would be in stark contrast to the series of gradual output hikes as OPEC+ restored supplies that were shuttered since the pandemic.

Markets are mostly expecting OPEC+ to keep its production levels steady come Monday.

Should OPEC+ indeed tighten the oil taps, such a surprisingly swift pivot may trigger a knee-jerk surge in Brent prices, although the move is likelier to shore up support for oil prices around the $100/bbl mark.

ECB to join “supersized” rate hike club?

The European Central Bank (ECB) is also due to make its next rate decision on Thursday.

With the headline CPI climbing to a new record, registering a 9.1% year-on-year growth in August, there clearly is a case for the ECB to step up its rate-hiking game.

At the time of writing, markets are pricing in an 86% chance that the ECB will trigger a “supersized” 75-basis point hike next week.

That would be larger than July’s 50bps hike, and also three times bigger than the traditional 25bps rate adjustments per policy meeting adopted by major central bankers.

While a 75bps ECB hike may help shore up immediate support for the euro, the shared currency remains weighed down by the souring outlook for the Eurozone.

Amid an energy crisis that’s at risk of worsening, more of such larger-than-usual rate hikes would only ramp up the risk of a recession for the Eurozone economy.

However, should the ECB surprise markets by triggering a relatively-dovish 50bps hike, that could open the 0.99 floor below EURUSD.

Overall, markets remain bearish on the euro’s prospects, with markets predicting a greater-than-even chance (51.3%) that EURUSD could fall to as low as 0.986 in the coming week.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

01 Sep

How does the US Dollar typically fare in September?

By ForexTime

Over the past 5 years, September has been the benchmark Dollar index’s second-best month of the year!

Since 2017, this month has seen an average monthly gain of 0.9% for DXY, second only to February’s 0.99% average climb.

Here’s how the greenback has fared historically against its major peers over the past five Septembers (2017-2021):

USDJPY: The Japanese Yen is typically the worst-performing DXY constituent for the month.
JPY sees its largest monthly drop against the US dollar for the year in September, at a whopping average of 1.43%!
That’s far higher than second-placed June’s 0.86% monthly decline
EURUSD: Euro typically weakens against the US dollar this month by 1.06% on average.
The shared currency’s woes in recent years are in stark contrast to the longer-term context, with the world’s most-traded currency pair enjoying an average September gain of 0.60% over the past 30 years.
GBPUSD: The Pound has had mixed fortunes, with a negligible drop of just -0.03% on average.
The Septembers of 2017-2019 registering monthly gains that offset the monthly declines over the past two straight Septembers.

Note that EUR and JPY are the two largest constituents of the benchmark Dollar index, making up a combined 71.2% of the DXY.

Here are the weightings of the currencies that make up the benchmark DXY:

Euro (EUR) = 57.6%
Japanese Yen (JPY) = 13.6%
British Pound (GBP) = 11.9%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) = 9.1%
Swedish Krona (SEK) = 4.2%
Swiss Franc (CHF) = 3.6%

Hence, the seasonal declines for EUR and JPY are enough to offset Sterling’s relatively resolute performance in recent Septembers, pushing the DXY up higher.

Now onto a forward-looking note, this month is set to be no different from the 5-year trend.

The US dollar is expected to register further gains in September 2022, even as DXY now trades around its highest levels in 20 years.

And here’s what markets are forecasting may happen for the US dollar versus its major peers by the end of this month:

EURUSD: 59% chance of hitting 0.985
USDJPY: 70% chance of reaching 141.0
GBPUSD: 87% chance of touching 1.15

For brevity’s sake, we shall keep the fundamental outlooks for these respective major currencies for future articles (do keep checking our Daily Market Analysis page for the key events and reasons that move FX markets).

Suffice to say that, as we enter this new month, it’s rather evident from a fundamental perspective that the US dollar is at least set to remain well-supported in the lead up to Q4, at the expense of the rest of the FX world.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Sep

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 01.09.2022 (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming another Hanging Man reversal pattern close to the resistance level, USDCAD may reverse in the form of a new correctional impulse. In this case, the downside correctional target may be at 1.3100. Later, the market may rebound from this level and resume growing. However, an alternative scenario implies that the asset may continue growing to reach 1.3245 without any pullbacks down to the support area.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the support area. At the moment, the asset is reversing in the form of a new rising impulse. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance level at 0.6880. After testing the level, the price may break it and continue the ascending tendency. At the same time, the opposite scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 0.6770 and continue the uptrend only after the pullback down to support area.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after testing the resistance area, the pair has formed a Harami reversal pattern. At the moment, USDCHF may reverse in the form of a new correctional impulse. In this case, the downside correctional target may be the support level at 0.9750. After testing this level, the price may rebound from it and resume trading upwards. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, in which the asset may grow to reach 0.9860 and continue the ascending tendency without any pullbacks.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Sep

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for September 2022

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, after completing the descending wave at 1.1200, forming a new consolidation range around this level, and breaking it downwards to reach the short-term target at 0.9955, EURUSD has returned to test 1.0080 from below. Possibly, the pair may continue trading within the downtrend to reach 0.9900, or even extend this structure down to 0.9700.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

On the daily chart, after finishing the descending wave at 1.1930 and failing to rebound from it, GBPUSD continues trading downwards with the short-term target at 1.1580. Later, the market may correct up to 1.1900 and then start a new decline to reach 1.1500.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

On the daily chart, after completing the ascending wave at 136.48 and forming a new consolidation range there, USDJPY has broken it to the upside; right now, it is still growing with the short-term target at 141.13. Later, the market may correct down to 136.48 and then start another growth to reach 142.52.

BRENT

As we can see in the daily chart, after failing to fix above 99.00 and forming a new consolidation range, Brent has broken it to the downside and may continue falling towards 91.60. Later, the market may resume trading upwards with the target at 105.20, or even extend this structure up to 120.50.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

On the daily chart, after completing the descending wave 1725.00 and forming a new consolidation range there, Gold has broken it to the downside and may continue trading downwards to reach 1680.00. Later, the market may form one more ascending wave to return to 1725.00 and then start a new decline with the target at 1650.00. After that, the instrument may resume growing towards 1766.00.

S&P 500

On the daily chart, after finishing the descending wave at 3975.0 and forming a new consolidation range above this level, the S&P index has broken it to the downside. Possibly, the asset may grow to test 3975.0 from below and then resume falling towards 3888.0, or even extend this structure to reach the short-term target at 3700.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

01 Sep

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.09.01

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0014
Prev Close: 1.0052
% chg. over the last day: +0.38%

Eurozone inflation reached 9.1% y/y (forecast -9.0%, previous -8.9%). Consumer prices continue to rise due to a surge in energy prices. Unlike the US, Europe is still unable to cope with this problem. As a result, ECB politicians started talking about a possible increase of the ECB rate by 0.75% on September 8. On the other hand, it is worth mentioning that the US Fed is approaching the end of its tightening cycle while the ECB is just entering its tightening cycle. Analysts think that the rate differential between the euro and the dollar will start to narrow, leading to the strengthening of the euro and a decline in the value of the US dollar in the next 12 months.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0008, 0.9951
Resistance levels: 1.0072, 1.0112, 1.0146, 1.0230, 1.0286, 1.0365

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. But the euro has been getting stronger during the last three trading sessions. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0008, but with a confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from resistance levels of 1.0072 or 1.0112, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.0146 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.01:

– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Spanish Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– Italian Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
– French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1647
Prev Close: 1.1622
% chg. over the last day: -0.21 %

The British Retail Consortium BRC, launched in 2005, states that store price inflation accelerated to 5.1% in August from 4.4% in July, a new record for the Index. The increase in food prices reached 9.3%. According to NielsenIQ, which provides data for the BRC, this level of food inflation could continue for at least another six months. Britons are preparing for a recession and consumers are doing everything they can to save money. With rising inflationary pressures, businesses will undoubtedly start to tightly control costs and profit margins where possible, so a wave of layoffs and rising unemployment may also join the energy crisis.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1561
Resistance levels: 1.1670, 1.1817, 1.1838, 1.1901, 1.1994, 1.2035, 1.2167

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The British pound continues to lose ground. The price is trading below the moving levels, and the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are the first signs of divergence. At the moment, it is better to look for sell trades on the intraday time frames, the nearest resistance level is 1.1670. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.1561, but only after an additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1838 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume

News feed for 2022.09.01:

– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 138.78
Prev Close: 138.95
% chg. over the last day: +0.12 %

Japan will step up supervision of bank risk controls as rising interest rates overseas create losses in their foreign bonds, reflecting concerns about the impact of US monetary policy tightening on the country’s financial system. Cumulative estimated losses on the leading banking groups’ foreign bonds totaled 2.656 trillion yen (19.12 billion) at the end of June, up more than 50% from the end of March. The Bank of Japan has not joined the global interest-rate hike cycle because Japan’s inflation is still moderate,and its economy is fragile. This stimulative policy has a negative effect on the national exchange rate.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 137.67, 136.85, 135.89, 135.35, 134.23, 133.47, 132.27
Resistance levels: 139.40

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading above the moving average lines again, and the pressure of buyers remains. The MACD indicator remains positive, but there are signs of divergence, which means that a technical correction will take place soon. Under such market conditions buy trades can be sought from the support level of 137.67, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, traders can consider the resistance level of 139.40, but only with additional confirmation, as fundamentally, USD/JPY quotes are inclined to grow.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 136.85, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.01:

– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3091
Prev Close: 1.3132
% chg. over the last day: +0.31 %

Canada’s real GDP rose by 0.1% last month. Manufacturing, wholesale utilities, and retail trade saw a slight decline in production. But it was offset by mining, oil and gas, agriculture, forestry, and hunting growth. At the moment, the Canadian dollar, as a commodity currency, is losing ground due to falling oil prices.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3103, 1.3026, 1.2992, 1.2958, 1.2940, 1.2900, 1.2858, 1.2809, 1.2761
Resistance levels: 1.3220

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is now trading above the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support levels of 1.3103 or 1.3026, but only with confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3220, but only after additional confirmation, as the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.2992 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.01:

– Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Sep

Global inflation continues to rise. EU countries are one step away from closing tourist visas for Russians

By JustForex

At the close of the US stock exchange yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.88% (monthly result-3.93%). S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.78%(-3.97% for the month). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.12% (monthly result-0.15%). Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Wednesday that the Fed would need to raise the federal funds rate to just above 4% by early next year and hold it at that level for a while.

The jobs data from the Labor Department will be released on Friday. It is expected to show that the nonfarm payrolls report will show an increase of 300,000 as July saw an increase of 528,000. Another strong report is likely to further reinforce expectations that the Fed will continue its excessive rate hikes after three consecutive 75 basis point hikes.

Canadian GDP for the second quarter showed that the economy grew by 3.3% annually versus an expected 4.4%. The inflation component was also 3.3% versus expected 3.1%.

European stocks were mostly down on Wednesday. German DAX (DE30) fell yesterday by 0.97% (monthly result – 4.78%), French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 1.37% (monthly result- 4.84%), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.17% (monthly result -2.46%), British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the day with negative 1.05% (monthly result -1.74%).

Inflation in the Eurozone reached 9.1% annually (the forecast was9.0%, the previous month -8.9%). In Italy, inflation hit a 37-year high of 8.4%. Consumer prices continue to rise due to a surge in energy prices. In contrast to the US, Europe has not yet been able to cope with this problem. As a result, ECB policymakers have started talking about a possible ECB rate hike of 0.75% at the September 8 meeting. Nevertheless, after August’s inflation data came as no surprise, the ECB may opt for another 50 basis point increase

According to Fitch Ratings, global inflation continued to rise in the second quarter of 2022, even though the quarter began at already significantly higher interest rates. The monthly data shows that the pressure continues to intensify in the third quarter of 2022.

In the second quarter of 2022, France’s GDP grew by 0.5% QoQ after negative 0.2% in the first quarter of 2022.

Britons are preparing for a recession, and consumers are doing everything they can to save money. With rising inflationary pressures, businesses will undoubtedly also tightly control spending and profit margins where possible., Thus,a wave of layoffs and rising unemployment may also join the energy crisis. But there is one positive factor – the cost-of-living crisis and the rising cost of credit have put the brakes on British house prices as the demand has fallen sharply.

“I don’t remember 1943 German tourists traveling, for example to Britain or other countries of the world for leisure purposes,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said yesterday. The EU countries are actively discussing the closure of tourist visas for Russians.

Also, yesterday the EU decided not to recognize Russian passports issued in the seized Ukrainian territories.

Oil prices continued to fall on Wednesday amid investor fears that the global economy may slow down further due to renewed restrictions in China. There are fears that demand will collapse as interest rates rise and inflation fears engulf global economies. The Joint Technical Committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, collectively called OPEC+, said it now sees a surplus of 900,000 BPD of oil this year, 100,000 BPD more than predicted a month earlier. Some OPEC+ members are calling for production cuts to stop oil prices from falling. The group’s next meeting is on September 5.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.34% (-0.65% for the month), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.03% (-1.05% for the month), and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed at 0.16% (-1.97% for the month).

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,955.00 −31.16 (−0.78%)

Dow Jones (US30) 31,510.43 −280.44 (−0.88%)

DAX (DE40) 12,834.96 +126.18 (+0.97%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,284.15−77.48 (−1.05%)

USD Index 108.69 −0.09 (−0.08%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Spanish Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– Italian Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
– French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 5:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);

– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

31 Aug

Murrey Math Lines 31.08.2022 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY is trading inside the “overbought area”. In this case, the price is expected to test 8/8, break it, and then continue falling and reach 7/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at +1/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards +2/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its decline.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

In the H4 chart, USDCAD is trading above the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating an ascending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to break 7/8 and continue growing towards the resistance at 8/8. On the other hand, this scenario may no longer be valid if the pair breaks the support at 6/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may reverse and fall to reach 4/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue trading upwards to reach 8/8 from the H4 chart.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

31 Aug

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: USD

By ForexTime

– This could be another big week for king dollar as all attention falls on Friday’s nonfarm payroll report.

After receiving fresh inspiration from Fed hawks last week, the greenback could charge higher if the pending US jobs data ticks all the boxes for more aggressive rate hikes. Alternatively, bulls may be humbled if the data fails to meet expectations. Whatever the outcome on Friday, it may be wise to brace for explosive levels of volatility, especially in the FX space.

With market players tense and on the fence ahead of this major event, the dollar remains in a range – waiting for a potent fundamental spark to make its next big move. With this catalyst likely to be the NFP, this could provide a great opportunity to identify trading opportunities for September.

Our focus today will be major currency pairs with our tool of choice none other than technical analysis.

DXY hovers around 109.00

The path of least resistance for the dollar points north but a fresh catalyst may be needed for bulls to switch into a higher gear. A solid breakout and daily close above 109.14 could encourage an incline towards 110.00. If bulls run out of steam, a decline back towards 108.25 and 107.30 could be on the cards.

Equally-weighted USD remains bullish

Just like the DXY, the equally weighted USD index remains bullish on the daily charts. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while the MACD trades to the upside. The upside momentum could take prices towards 1.2184 and potentially higher. A move back below 1.1950 may open the doors back towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average at 1.1860.

EURUSD to retest 0.9900?

After breaking below parity, the EURUSD has remained shaky and vulnerable to losses. Bears clearly remain in a position of power with their eyes locked on 0.9900. A strong breakdown below this point may indicate a selloff towards 0.9800 and lower.

GBPUSD ventures towards 1.1600

An appreciating dollar continues to drag the GBPUSD lower. A strong break below 1.1600 may result in a decline towards 1.1500. If 1.1600 proves to be reliable support, prices could retest 1.17600.

AUDUSD breakdown on the horizon

A solid breakdown below 0.06850 could encourage a selloff towards 0.6700. If prices manage to keep above 0.6850, a rebound towards 0.7000 may be a possibility.

USDJPY ready to breakout?

The USDJPY remains bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. Prices are trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Average while the MACD trades above zero. A strong breakout above 139.380 could inspire an incline towards 140.00. A move back below 135.00 may trigger a selloff towards the 100-day Simple Moving Average and 131.34, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

31 Aug

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, ETH). Overview for 31.08.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

The BTC recovered to $20,195 on Wednesday. Yesterday, the major cryptocurrency didn’t break its familiar range despite the fact that investors were selling it. The intermediate resistance lies at $20,350, and if the asset secures above it, there might be a pause in sales and the price might even rise to reach $21,000. To make bulls more active, the BTC must fix above $22,000.

The US stock market remains under pressure. Investors have few reasons to be happy in anticipation of another rate hike in September. Historically, it is believed that American exchanges fall more often than they rise in the first month of autumn. The expected decline might be about 1%. There is a correlation between S&P 500/NASDAQ and the BTC, and this connection is currently stronger than ever.

The capitalisation of the crypto market declined to $994 billion, and the share of the BTC dropped to 39.4%, while the ETH takes up 19.4%. The fear index is growing again – 27 points.

ETH: growth and stabilisation

After falling earlier, the key altcoin, the ETH, managed to recover and gain almost 12% – it is now trading at $1,565. Investors are waiting for September’s highlight – an upgrade to Ethereum 2.0 network and switching to PoS. These expectations might provide ETH with significant support.

Binance and Virtuzone will promote Web 3

Crypto exchange Binance together with Virtuzone are starting their operations under the recent partner agreement to promote Web 3 in United Arab Emirates.

CME introduced futures on cryptos and the Euro

CME announced the launch of trading futures contracts on BTC and the ETH denominated in EUR.

Article By RoboForex.com

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

31 Aug

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.08.31

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9998
Prev Close: 1.0015
% chg. over the last day: +0.17%

Germany’s inflation climbed to an annual rate of 7.9% in August, returning to its all-time high of May, its highest level in almost 50 years. There are increasing signs from ECB officials that the Central Bank must aggressively hike rates at its next meeting. At the same time, there is a growing possibility that the US Federal Reserve will also raise rates by 0.75% at its next meeting. Traders raised their rates for the third consecutive 75 basis point increase in September to 76.5% from 70% following the release of US jobs data which showed that the US labor market remains strong.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9951
Resistance levels: 1.0032, 1.0112, 1.0146, 1.0230, 1.0286, 1.0365

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is trading between the moving averages, which makes it difficult to find good entry points. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but buyer pressure is weak. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 0.9951, but with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from resistance levels of 1.0032, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.0146 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.08.31:

– French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
– French GDP (q/q) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1704
Prev Close: 1.1653
% chg. over the last day: -0.44%

The CBI’s business optimism balance, which measures the difference between the share of optimistic and pessimistic firms, has fallen to its lowest level since May 2020 for both consumer and business services. The energy crisis and rising inflation are hurting households and every business sector. At this point, all economic and fundamental factors point to weakness in the British economy, which is negatively affecting the national exchange rate.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1659, 1.1561
Resistance levels: 1.1715, 1.1814, 1.1838, 1.1901, 1.1994, 1.2035, 1.2167

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The British pound continues to lose ground. The price is trading below the moving levels, and the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are the first signs of divergence. At the moment, it is better to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 1.1814, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1659 or 1.1561 if the price drops lower.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1901 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 138.74
Prev Close: 138.79
% chg. over the last day: +0.04%

The Japanese yen is under pressure from a soft monetary policy from Japan’s Central Bank. And as the US Fed continues to raise interest rates aggressively. The rate differential is widening, so the USD/JPY is inclined to rise fundamentally. Official data released Wednesday showed that industrial production in Japan increased by 1.0% in July from the previous month. Retail sales rose for the fifth straight month, raising hopes that the world’s third-largest economy will benefit from the strength in consumer spending this quarter.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 138.53, 137.67, 136.85, 135.89, 135.35, 134.23, 133.47, 132.27
Resistance levels: 139.40

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading above the moving average lines again, and the buyers’ pressure is increasing. The MACD indicator remains positive, with no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 138.53 or 137.67, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is possible to consider a resistance level of 139.40, but only with additional confirmation, as fundamentally, USD/JPY quotes are inclined to grow.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 136.85, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.08.31:

– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3004
Prev Close: 1.3089
% chg. over the last day: +0.65%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Canadian Central Bank but also on the oil price. Oil decreased by $6 yesterday amid rumors that Iran and the US have reached an agreement on the nuclear deal, allowing Iran to export oil to the world markets again. The drop in oil had a negative effect on the Canadian currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3026, 1.2992, 1.2958, 1.2940, 1.2900, 1.2858, 1.2809, 1.2761
Resistance levels: 1.3105

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is now trading near the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3027 or 1.2992, but only with confirmation. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3105, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.2900 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.08.31:

– Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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