InvestMacro

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, AXS). Overview for 12.12.2022

The BTC failed to keep balance and on Monday dropped to 16,934 USD.

The second attempt in a row to rise above the intermediate support level of 17,200 USD failed. The market stepped back to the comfortable consolidation area. Now the support levels of 16,600 USD and 16,300 USD turn out working. If they are broken away, a pathway for sellers to 15,500 USD will open.

Nothing new is going on. If the crypto market had a global idea that could balance digital assets out after a decline, the dynamics would be better and prospects would be clearer. However, there is no general idea.

Capitalisation of the crypto market is 840.74 billion USD, the BTC taking up 38.7% and the ETH – 18.1%.

Florida believes in BTC

A US state of Florida is number one among the states in terms of acception of digital currencies and the development of blockchain-basee infrastructure. Firstly, this state accomodates for the largest number of BTC cash machines in the US. According to Invezz information, this is where blockchain startups prefer to open.

AXS became leader of growth over week

The AXS token turned out the most active over a week. It grew by 22%, at certain moments rising by 52%. AXS is a crypto of the Axie Infinity game.

David Schwartz: three reasons for FXT crash

Technical director of Ripple David Schwartz explained the three main reasons for the crash of the FXT exchange. The first one is the fact that Alameda Research used the clients’ money. Another reason is the deliberate mixture of the clients’ deposits and assets for high-risk investing. The third reason is no mechanisms for risk-management.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

12 Dec

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 12.12.2022 (GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is testing the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which indicates prevalence of an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.2145 is expected, followed by growth to 1.2640. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.2020, which will indicate further falling to 1.1925.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The currency pair has left the descending channel. The pair is going inside the Cloud, which indicates a flat. A test of the lower border of the Cloud is expected at 136.35, followed by growth to 141.85. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 135.25, which will mean further falling to 134.35. The growth will be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the descending channel and securing above 138.05.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is pushing off the Tenkan-Sen line. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line is expected at 0.6355, followed by growth to 0.6605. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6235, which will entail further falling to 0.6245.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Dec

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.12

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0555
Prev Close: 1.0532
% chg. over the last day: -0.21 %

This week, the ECB will hold its last monetary policy meeting of the year. Analysts expect the ECB to raise the interest rate by another 50 basis points. But the main focus of investors right now is not on the size of the rate hike but on the final rate level and what the rate difference will be between the US Fed and the ECB. The bigger the difference between the two, the stronger the dollar index against the euro.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
Resistance levels: 1.0584, 1.0610

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But at the moment, the price is trading below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator has become negative. On the intraday time frames, the sellers have taken over the initiative. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0483 but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0584, but better with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout, as the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0446 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2231
Prev Close: 1.2266
% chg. over the last day: +0.28 %

The UK government on Friday announced sweeping financial regulatory reforms that, according to Jeremy Hunt, will change the EU laws that have prevented the country from developing normally after Brexit. The package of 30 measures includes easing a rule requiring banks to separate their retail operations from their investment units. The changes announced in the package, dubbed the “Edinburgh Reforms,” also include a review of short-selling rules, stock exchange listings of companies, insurers’ balance sheets, and real estate investment funds. Treasury Secretary Jeremy Hunt said he wants to ensure Britain’s status as “one of the most open, dynamic, and competitive financial services centers in the world.”

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2177, 1.2024, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.2279, 1.2304, 1.2381, 1.2431

From the technical point of view, the GBP/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.2177, but with confirmation on intraday time frames. Sell trades are best looked for from the resistance level of 1.2279 but also better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down from the 1.2100 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.12:

– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 136.68
Prev Close: 136.58
% chg. over the last day: -0.07 %

The Japanese Yen will now be completely dependent on the Dollar Index, as the divergent policies of the Japanese central banks and the US Federal Reserve leave no chance for the yen. Since a rate hike from the Fed on Wednesday is largely seen as a foregone conclusion, investors are focused on the Fed’s projections regarding the final rate point. Therefore, fundamentally, USD/JPY quotes are prone to further growth.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 135.33, 133.53
Resistance levels: 137.42, 139.09, 140.75, 143.17, 145.16

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator is positive again, and the buyers’ pressure on the intraday time frames is increasing. Sell deals may be looked for from the resistance level of 137.24, provided that there is a reverse reaction. Buy trades are best considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 135.33, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 138.00, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3590
Prev Close: 1.3645
% chg. over the last day: +0.40 %

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency. Falling oil prices last week caused the Canadian dollar to fall against other currencies, especially against the US dollar. On the one hand, this is a negative sign. On the other hand, a decrease in oil prices will have a downward effect on inflation, leading to an increase in production figures. Currently, the Bank of Canada keeps the rate higher than the US Federal Reserve and the ECB, so the Canadian dollar has a solid fundamental basis.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3621, 1.3518, 1.3438, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3690, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone. But the price is in front of the resistance level. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered after a slight pullback to the support level of 1.3621, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3690 but with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or after a false breakout, as the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.12:

– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 22:25 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Dec

Financial markets are gearing up for the busiest week this month

By JustMarkets

In the United States, the PPI, which measures inflation between factories and plants, rose by 0.4% last month. This is a negative sign, indicating that the current rate of inflation may not yet be peaking. A stronger-than-expected consumer confidence report also contributed to a late-session sell-off in stocks. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.90% (-2.50% for the week) and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.73% (-2.90% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 0.70% on Friday (-3.31% for the week). All three indices closed the week lower.

The PPI report confirmed Chairman Powell’s recent speech that while the October inflation data was encouraging, it will take much more effort to bring down inflation. But there is also a positive side. Annual inflation expectations fell to 4.6% from 4.9%, the lowest since September 2021, according to a University of Michigan survey.

The US Federal Reserve will hold its last meeting of the year this week. Experts point to a 78% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 0.5%. The probability of raising the rate by 0.75% is 21%. Meanwhile, US inflation data on Tuesday will shed light on the Fed’s future plans, which will set the tone for US indices and stocks for the rest of the year and the beginning of 2023.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down last week. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.74% (-0.81% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.46% (-0.76% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.78% (-1.20% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Friday up by 0.06% (-1.05% for the week).

The UK will publish the next GDP and Industrial Production Data today. Analysts believe that if the GDP shows a decline, the UK will move from the stagflation phase to a full-blown recession. The wage and price spiral could lead to hyperinflation and destabilize the economy. According to the latest CBI report, UK business investment continues to decline.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will meet on December 15 and is expected to decide on a third rate hike, this time probably by 50 basis points, in the context of stabilizing inflation at 3%. A further rate hike could come in March 2023, after which the SNB will probably pause for the rest of the year.

Gold and silver have been trading higher in recent weeks as the US dollar lost some ground due to an impending rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. But as central banks remain focused on curbing inflation through restrictive tightening of monetary policy, the fundamental component is not yet in favor of the precious metals. On the other hand, the tightening cycle is in its final stages, and investors are beginning to move into gold and silver in advance. But traders should understand that if recession fears weaken, the dollar index might strengthen again, which would have a negative impact on gold quotes.

Last week, black gold prices were falling as the EU and allies put a price cap on Russian oil. But oil prices rose on Friday and continued to rise in Asian morning trading on Monday as Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to cut production in response to a Western price cap on Russian oil exports. Another factor in the rise in oil prices was the closure of a key oil pipeline between Canada and the United States over the weekend.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.53% over the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down by 0.87%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 3.53%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) decreases by 0.84%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was down by 1.21%.

Optimism about the cancellation of COVID measures in China was largely neutralized by fears that a large spike in local infections would delay a broader opening.

Wholesale prices in Japan fell from 9.4% to 9.3% year-over-year in November. The drop in producer prices points to a possible peak in inflation amid a decline in global commodity prices. Global commodity prices and the weakness of the yen, which increases the cost of imports, are pushing wholesale and consumer inflation upward. Japanese policymakers fear that such a trend could hurt Japan’s fragile economic recovery, so they are keeping rates at ultra-low levels.

In the commodities market, futures on orange juice (+5.45%), lumber (+3.76%), soybeans (+3.06%), and palladium (+2.86%) showed the biggest gains by the end of the week. Futures on WTI oil (-10.49%), BRENT oil (-10.23%), gasoline (-9.67%), wheat (-3.71%), coffee (-3.01%), and cotton (-2.62%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,934.38 −29.13 (−0.73%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,476.46 −305.02 (−0.90%)

DAX (DE40) 14,370.72 +106.16 (+0.74%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,476.63 +4.46 (+0.06%)

USD Index 104.93 +0.16 (+0.15%)

Important events for today:

– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 22:25 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

10 Dec

COT Currency Speculators drive Euro bullish bets to a 92-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

British pound sterling & Australian dollar lead Weekly Speculator Changes

COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British pound sterling (8,391 contracts) with the Australian dollar (4,067 contracts), the Euro (2,636 contracts), the Swiss franc (2,017 contracts) and the Japanese yen (1,398 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Mexican peso (-18,134 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (-5,974 contracts), the Brazilian real (-5,439 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (-1,444 contracts), Bitcoin (-257 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-6 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the rising Euro positioning. Large speculators increased their bullish bets for the Euro this week for the seventh time out of the past eight weeks and for the twelfth time out of the past thirteen weeks. The Euro speculator position has gone from a total of -47,676 contracts on August 30th to a total of +124,883 contracts this week for a thirteen-week change of +172,559 contracts. The current speculator standing for the Euro has now ascended to the most bullish level since March 2nd of 2021, a span of ninety-two weeks.

The Euro (EURUSD) price has been on a bullish trend as well since falling to an approximate 20-year low in September at a below parity exchange rate of 0.9593. Since the September low, the Euro has rallied by approximately 9 percent and is now trading at the highest levels since June with this week’s close above the 1.0550 exchange rate.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	45,115	56	24,886	66	-27,540	32	2,654	46
EUR	711,537	84	124,883	73	-160,005	31	35,122	35
GBP	230,311	55	-28,193	45	37,774	60	-9,581	39
JPY	223,424	64	-65,996	28	75,202	72	-9,206	35
CHF	40,171	33	-12,230	22	17,859	74	-5,629	38
CAD	148,891	29	-22,090	15	22,905	88	-815	28
AUD	158,755	51	-40,563	47	42,820	51	-2,257	47
NZD	42,954	36	-6,498	37	6,301	61	197	54
MXN	293,708	93	47,952	48	-53,360	51	5,408	66
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	25,464	7	2,198	48	-4,324	51	2,126	86
Bitcoin	15,769	83	67	78	-568	0	501	24

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & EuroFX

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Bitcoin (78.1 percent) and the EuroFX (73.3 percent) lead the currency markets currently. The US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (15.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the only currency in an Extreme-Bearish position (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (66.4 percent)
EuroFX (73.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (44.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (37.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (28.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (22.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (47.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (36.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (47.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (55.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (48.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (54.1 percent)
Bitcoin (78.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (82.6 percent)

Japanese Yen tops Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Japanese Yen (22.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (17.1 percent), the British Pound Sterling (16.8 percent), the EuroFX (15.3 percent) and the Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-28.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the US Dollar Index (-8.7 percent), the Canadian Dollar (-4.7 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-2.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-8.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-13.0 percent)
EuroFX (15.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (12.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (16.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-18.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-4.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (5.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (17.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (35.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (37.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-28.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-20.2 percent)
Bitcoin (0.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (5.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,892 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.1	4.1	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	65.1	6.6
– Net Position:	24,886	-27,540	2,654
– Gross Longs:	36,157	1,838	5,610
– Gross Shorts:	11,271	29,378	2,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	32.0	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	10.8	-17.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 124,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.4	51.0	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	73.5	7.0
– Net Position:	124,883	-160,005	35,122
– Gross Longs:	245,063	363,169	85,050
– Gross Shorts:	120,180	523,174	49,928
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	30.6	35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.3	-18.8	25.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -28,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	73.3	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	56.9	14.1
– Net Position:	-28,193	37,774	-9,581
– Gross Longs:	28,539	168,838	22,941
– Gross Shorts:	56,732	131,064	32,522
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	59.7	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-19.6	18.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -65,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	76.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	42.4	15.3
– Net Position:	-65,996	75,202	-9,206
– Gross Longs:	23,589	169,918	24,896
– Gross Shorts:	89,585	94,716	34,102
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.2	72.3	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.6	-20.9	12.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.3	70.9	25.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	26.5	39.4
– Net Position:	-12,230	17,859	-5,629
– Gross Longs:	1,343	28,500	10,183
– Gross Shorts:	13,573	10,641	15,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	74.4	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	-8.7	21.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,090 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	53.3	20.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	37.9	21.4
– Net Position:	-22,090	22,905	-815
– Gross Longs:	30,717	79,379	30,984
– Gross Shorts:	52,807	56,474	31,799
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	87.8	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.0	-1.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -40,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	63.7	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.4	36.7	12.0
– Net Position:	-40,563	42,820	-2,257
– Gross Longs:	36,334	101,160	16,814
– Gross Shorts:	76,897	58,340	19,071
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	50.8	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-17.5	30.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,054 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	53.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.1	38.8	7.4
– Net Position:	-6,498	6,301	197
– Gross Longs:	16,302	22,950	3,397
– Gross Shorts:	22,800	16,649	3,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	61.3	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-23.5	41.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.5	35.9	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	54.1	0.8
– Net Position:	47,952	-53,360	5,408
– Gross Longs:	177,555	105,410	7,854
– Gross Shorts:	129,603	158,770	2,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	50.5	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.1	-14.0	-7.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	28.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.8	45.5	5.7
– Net Position:	2,198	-4,324	2,126
– Gross Longs:	14,625	7,271	3,566
– Gross Shorts:	12,427	11,595	1,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	50.6	85.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.9	28.6	-3.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 67 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.2	1.9	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.8	5.5	5.5
– Net Position:	67	-568	501
– Gross Longs:	12,651	306	1,365
– Gross Shorts:	12,584	874	864
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	36.9	24.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	-9.1	3.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

10 Dec

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal & Wheat lead Most Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 6th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish.

Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 95.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The overall net speculator position totaled 122,174 net contracts this week with a gain of +19,835 contract in weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 95.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -3,239 net contracts this week with a change of +320 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level resides at a 82.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 13,517 net contracts this week with a gain of +3,762 contract in this week’s speculator positions.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 78.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 67 net contracts this week although with a drop of -257 contract in this week’s speculator positions.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -39,897 net contracts this week with a -6,592 contract decline in speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is also at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -658,606 net contracts this week with a significant drop of -129,257 contract in this week’s speculator positions.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 1.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -106,952 net contracts this week with a decline of -27,703 contract in this week’s speculator positions.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Coffee speculator level is at a 1.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -14,642 net contracts this week with a small -6 contract change in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

Finally, the WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 5.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 231,720 net contracts this week with a weekly -8,019 contract shortfall in speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

10 Dec

COT Metals Speculators boosted their Silver bullish bets to 30-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Gold & Platinum lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while just one market had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (5,122 contracts) with Platinum (1,377 contracts), Silver (1,725 contracts) and Palladium (259 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The only metals markets with declines in speculator bets this week was Copper at a total of -305 contracts.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the increasing bullishness of Silver positions. The large speculator position in Silver futures rose this week for a second straight week and for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. Speculator bets have now risen by a total of +19,309 contracts over these past six weeks, going from a total of -101 contracts on October 25th to a total of +19,208 contracts this week. The recent gains have now positioned the speculator standing at its highest level since May 10th, a span of 30 weeks.

The Silver futures price has been on the move as well with prices closing out the week at $23.71. This is the highest weekly close for Silver since April and Silver is now up by over +30 percent since bottoming at the beginning of September.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,436,728	3	231,720	6	-259,553	94	27,833	45
Gold	422,100	0	115,125	21	-130,079	79	14,954	17
Silver	122,558	1	19,208	35	-32,262	65	13,054	33
Copper	158,762	9	1,679	38	-4,354	64	2,675	41
Palladium	7,785	9	-1,372	16	1,226	81	146	50
Platinum	68,821	37	25,636	44	-30,148	58	4,512	29
Natural Gas	1,010,479	11	-164,037	29	135,606	74	28,431	48
Brent	144,147	7	-28,118	64	23,746	33	4,372	68
Heating Oil	257,158	19	22,828	76	-39,506	29	16,678	56
Soybeans	622,200	11	89,661	38	-59,882	71	-29,779	21
Corn	1,232,307	1	198,375	55	-157,536	49	-40,839	20
Coffee	203,296	14	-14,642	2	12,907	98	1,735	24
Sugar	881,388	34	183,124	57	-226,066	38	42,942	61
Wheat	334,760	21	-39,897	0	42,820	100	-2,923	95

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Copper

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Platinum (43.6 percent) and Copper (37.7 percent) lead the metals category this week. Silver (35.3 percent) and then Gold (20.9 percent) comes in as the next highest metals market in strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (15.7 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently and is in an Extreme-Bearish level below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (20.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (19.2 percent)
Silver (35.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (33.4 percent)
Copper (37.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (37.9 percent)
Platinum (43.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (41.7 percent)
Palladium (15.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.2 percent)

Silver & Platinum tops Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all metals markets were positive movers this week. Silver (21.3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (19.2 percent), Gold (15.6 percent), Copper (14.8 percent) and Palladium (2.2 percent) fill out the positive movers in the latest trends data.

Move Statistics:
Gold (15.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (11.0 percent)
Silver (21.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.9 percent)
Copper (14.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (17.7 percent)
Platinum (19.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (21.2 percent)
Palladium (2.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-2.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 115,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	27.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	58.7	5.4
– Net Position:	115,125	-130,079	14,954
– Gross Longs:	211,472	117,578	37,785
– Gross Shorts:	96,347	247,657	22,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	79.0	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-15.4	7.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.9	36.5	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	62.8	8.6
– Net Position:	19,208	-32,262	13,054
– Gross Longs:	48,954	44,757	23,648
– Gross Shorts:	29,746	77,019	10,594
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	64.7	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-22.1	19.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	41.8	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	44.5	8.0
– Net Position:	1,679	-4,354	2,675
– Gross Longs:	55,496	66,286	15,368
– Gross Shorts:	53,817	70,640	12,693
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.7	63.6	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-15.7	9.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,259 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.3	29.1	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	72.9	4.1
– Net Position:	25,636	-30,148	4,512
– Gross Longs:	36,693	20,025	7,324
– Gross Shorts:	11,057	50,173	2,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.6	58.0	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-19.1	12.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	49.8	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.2	34.0	13.0
– Net Position:	-1,372	1,226	146
– Gross Longs:	2,460	3,875	1,157
– Gross Shorts:	3,832	2,649	1,011
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	81.1	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-5.8	37.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

10 Dec

COT Bonds Speculators drop 5-Year Treasury bets to 215-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

5-Year, 10-Year drops lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while six markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (65,490 contracts) with the Ultra US Bond (17,631 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the 5-Year Bond (-129,257 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (-72,434 contracts), the Fed Funds (-46,249 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (-27,703 contracts), the Long US Bond (-11,444 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (-6,362 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data this week is the further decrease in speculator positions for the 5-Year Bonds market. The large speculator position in 5-Year Bonds futures fell this week by the largest one-week amount (-129,257 contracts) since February and have now dropped for the third time out of the past four weeks (a total decline of -159,151 contracts over last 4-week period). This weakness in speculator bets for the 5-Year Bond has brought the overall level to its most bearish point of the past 215 weeks. The last time the 5-Year Bond bets were this bearish was October 23rd of 2018 with a total of -773,639 contracts at that time. Despite the speculator weakness, the 5-Year Bond future prices have come off their November lows and touched their highest level since September this week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	7,263,670	0	-1,643,862	23	1,944,031	76	-300,169	38
FedFunds	1,323,028	31	-78,867	30	87,745	71	-8,878	37
2-Year	2,109,988	15	-534,540	8	529,893	91	4,647	54
Long T-Bond	1,170,663	37	-115,361	47	90,700	43	24,661	72
10-Year	3,775,431	49	-369,206	16	483,149	79	-113,943	53
5-Year	4,130,322	59	-658,606	0	770,224	100	-111,618	50

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bond

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (47.0 percent) leads the bonds category.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0.0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.0 percent), the 2-Year Bond (7.7 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (16.3 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (29.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (35.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (8.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (17.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (16.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (47.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (50.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (33.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (26.3 percent)
Eurodollar (22.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (21.7 percent)

Eurodollar tops Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (4.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-27.4 percent), the 5-Year Bond (-26.1 percent), the Fed Funds (-18.7 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (-18.5 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-18.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-7.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-27.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-28.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-26.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (-18.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-7.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-0.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-12.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-8.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-14.2 percent)
Eurodollar (4.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,643,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 65,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,709,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	69.4	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	42.6	9.0
– Net Position:	-1,643,862	1,944,031	-300,169
– Gross Longs:	548,998	5,041,684	353,408
– Gross Shorts:	2,192,860	3,097,653	653,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.9	75.8	38.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	-1.0	-43.2

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -78,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -46,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,618 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	78.6	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	71.9	2.9
– Net Position:	-78,867	87,745	-8,878
– Gross Longs:	114,699	1,039,303	30,010
– Gross Shorts:	193,566	951,558	38,888
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	70.5	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	18.5	-3.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -534,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -528,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	82.0	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	56.9	8.1
– Net Position:	-534,540	529,893	4,647
– Gross Longs:	171,760	1,730,674	174,708
– Gross Shorts:	706,300	1,200,781	170,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	90.8	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.4	16.4	34.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -658,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -129,257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -529,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	85.6	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	67.0	10.1
– Net Position:	-658,606	770,224	-111,618
– Gross Longs:	229,001	3,537,413	303,580
– Gross Shorts:	887,607	2,767,189	415,198
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.1	25.5	-7.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -369,206 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -72,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -296,772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	77.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	64.4	11.9
– Net Position:	-369,206	483,149	-113,943
– Gross Longs:	423,994	2,914,741	336,179
– Gross Shorts:	793,200	2,431,592	450,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.3	79.3	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	22.1	-15.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -106,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,249 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	77.9	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	64.5	17.2
– Net Position:	-106,952	189,505	-82,553
– Gross Longs:	142,263	1,099,122	160,187
– Gross Shorts:	249,215	909,617	242,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.0	88.9	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	7.8	-1.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -115,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.7	79.5	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	71.7	12.7
– Net Position:	-115,361	90,700	24,661
– Gross Longs:	55,349	930,571	173,282
– Gross Shorts:	170,710	839,871	148,621
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.0	42.9	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	15.3	-3.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -371,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -389,404 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.9	83.8	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	61.5	8.0
– Net Position:	-371,773	317,929	53,844
– Gross Longs:	56,272	1,193,551	168,437
– Gross Shorts:	428,045	875,622	114,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	68.3	76.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	5.8	8.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

10 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Speculators drop Corn bullish bets to 19-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybean Meal (19,835 contracts) with Cocoa (8,266 contracts), Sugar (4,089 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,409 contracts), Soybeans (2,453 contracts), Cotton (2,140 contracts) and Live Cattle (1,229 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Corn (-71,867 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-37,543 contracts), Wheat (-6,592 contracts) and Coffee (-6 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the recent drop in Corn‘s speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Corn decreased sharply this week and by the largest one-week amount since 2018 with a -71,867 contract decline. Overall, Corn bets have now fallen by -142,413 net speculator contracts in just the past five weeks, going from a total of +340,788 contracts on November 1st to a total of +198,375 contracts this week. This week’s total is the least bullish level in the past nineteen weeks, dating back to July 26th.

Corn futures prices have been in retreat since peaking in April of this year as the front-month futures price settled on Friday at just over 644’0. This is down almost 20 percent from the April peak, however, Corn does remain in an uptrend on the weekly charts.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,436,728	3	231,720	6	-259,553	94	27,833	45
Gold	422,100	0	115,125	21	-130,079	79	14,954	17
Silver	122,558	1	19,208	35	-32,262	65	13,054	33
Copper	158,762	9	1,679	38	-4,354	64	2,675	41
Palladium	7,785	9	-1,372	16	1,226	81	146	50
Platinum	68,821	37	25,636	44	-30,148	58	4,512	29
Natural Gas	1,010,479	11	-164,037	29	135,606	74	28,431	48
Brent	144,147	7	-28,118	64	23,746	33	4,372	68
Heating Oil	257,158	19	22,828	76	-39,506	29	16,678	56
Soybeans	622,200	11	89,661	38	-59,882	71	-29,779	21
Corn	1,232,307	1	198,375	55	-157,536	49	-40,839	20
Coffee	203,296	14	-14,642	2	12,907	98	1,735	24
Sugar	881,388	34	183,124	57	-226,066	38	42,942	61
Wheat	334,760	21	-39,897	0	42,820	100	-2,923	95

Soybean Meal tops Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (95.5 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Sugar (56.9 percent) and Corn (55.4 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0.0 percent) and Coffee (1.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in an Extreme-Bearish position (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (55.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (64.6 percent)
Sugar (56.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (55.5 percent)
Coffee (1.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybeans (38.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (37.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (48.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (95.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (84.5 percent)
Live Cattle (48.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (47.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (46.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.1 percent)
Cotton (21.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.9 percent)
Cocoa (34.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (26.4 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.5 percent)

Sugar leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Sugar (24.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Cocoa (19.3 percent), Soybeans (10.3 percent) and Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-29.9 percent) and Wheat (-26.4 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week. The next markets with lower trend scores were Corn (-16.8 percent), Live Cattle (-11.1 percent) and Cotton (-4.6 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (-5.4 percent)
Sugar (24.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (18.1 percent)
Coffee (-29.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-38.9 percent)
Soybeans (10.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (10.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-18.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-11.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (15.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-1.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (9.6 percent)
Cotton (-4.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.2 percent)
Cocoa (19.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.5 percent)
Wheat (-26.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-29.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 198,375 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -71,867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 270,242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	48.5	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	61.2	13.2
– Net Position:	198,375	-157,536	-40,839
– Gross Longs:	315,270	597,177	121,431
– Gross Shorts:	116,895	754,713	162,270
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	49.5	20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	16.5	9.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 183,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,035 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	45.0	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	70.6	5.5
– Net Position:	183,124	-226,066	42,942
– Gross Longs:	282,673	396,317	91,614
– Gross Shorts:	99,549	622,383	48,672
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.9	38.3	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.5	-24.7	18.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	54.8	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	48.4	3.8
– Net Position:	-14,642	12,907	1,735
– Gross Longs:	40,476	111,365	9,524
– Gross Shorts:	55,118	98,458	7,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	98.0	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.9	28.8	-3.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 89,661 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	51.3	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	60.9	12.1
– Net Position:	89,661	-59,882	-29,779
– Gross Longs:	160,518	319,120	45,508
– Gross Shorts:	70,857	379,002	75,287
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	71.3	20.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-8.0	-13.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 66,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -37,543 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	47.0	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	65.2	5.6
– Net Position:	66,311	-78,867	12,556
– Gross Longs:	106,474	204,193	36,717
– Gross Shorts:	40,163	283,060	24,161
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	50.6	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	17.0	-0.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 122,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 19,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,339 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.0	37.9	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.6	74.4	7.3
– Net Position:	122,174	-141,761	19,587
– Gross Longs:	140,034	147,251	47,971
– Gross Shorts:	17,860	289,012	28,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.5	9.2	34.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-0.3	-28.4

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	32.8	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	50.6	12.3
– Net Position:	55,263	-52,026	-3,237
– Gross Longs:	108,912	95,851	32,667
– Gross Shorts:	53,649	147,877	35,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	42.0	79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	13.3	-3.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 38,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	35.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	49.9	12.6
– Net Position:	38,908	-28,396	-10,512
– Gross Longs:	76,849	67,376	13,694
– Gross Shorts:	37,941	95,772	24,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	62.5	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	2.4	-2.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 18,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	47.2	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	57.8	5.3
– Net Position:	18,720	-20,658	1,938
– Gross Longs:	64,807	92,047	12,243
– Gross Shorts:	46,087	112,705	10,305
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.5	78.5	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	3.5	6.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	47.4	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	55.8	3.1
– Net Position:	17,964	-21,713	3,749
– Gross Longs:	83,808	122,383	11,758
– Gross Shorts:	65,844	144,096	8,009
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.6	66.0	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-21.1	17.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -39,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	40.6	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.5	27.8	11.1
– Net Position:	-39,897	42,820	-2,923
– Gross Longs:	95,846	135,857	34,182
– Gross Shorts:	135,743	93,037	37,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.4	27.0	21.1

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COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

09 Dec

Ada Lovelace’s skills with language, music and needlepoint contributed to her pioneering work in computing

By Corinna Schlombs, Rochester Institute of Technology

Ada Lovelace, known as the first computer programmer, was born on Dec. 10, 1815, more than a century before digital electronic computers were developed.

Lovelace has been hailed as a model for girls in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM). A dozen biographies for young audiences were published for the 200th anniversary of her birth in 2015. And in 2018, The New York Times added hers as one of the first “missing obituaries” of women at the rise of the #MeToo movement.

Ada King, Countess of Lovelace, was more than just another mathematician.
Watercolor portrait of Ada King, Countess of Lovelace by Alfred Edward Chalon via Wikimedia

But Lovelace – properly Ada King, Countess of Lovelace after her marriage – drew on many different fields for her innovative work, including languages, music and needlecraft, in addition to mathematical logic. Recognizing that her well-rounded education enabled her to accomplish work that was well ahead of her time, she can be a model for all students, not just girls.

Lovelace was the daughter of the scandal-ridden romantic poet George Gordon Byron, aka Lord Byron, and his highly educated and strictly religious wife Anne Isabella Noel Byron, known as Lady Byron. Lovelace’s parents separated shortly after her birth. At a time when women were not allowed to own property and had few legal rights, her mother managed to secure custody of her daughter.

Growing up in a privileged aristocratic family, Lovelace was educated by home tutors, as was common for girls like her. She received lessons in French and Italian, music and in suitable handicrafts such as embroidery. Less common for a girl in her time, she also studied math. Lovelace continued to work with math tutors into her adult life, and she eventually corresponded with mathematician and logician Augustus De Morgan at London University about symbolic logic.

antique black-and-white photograph of a woman in an elaborate outfit — A rare photograph of Ada Lovelace.
Daguerreotype by Antoine Claudet via Wikimedia

Lovelace’s algorithm

Lovelace drew on all of these lessons when she wrote her computer program – in reality, it was a set of instructions for a mechanical calculator that had been built only in parts.

The computer in question was the Analytical Engine designed by mathematician, philosopher and inventor Charles Babbage. Lovelace had met Babbage when she was introduced to London society. The two related to each other over their shared love for mathematics and fascination for mechanical calculation. By the early 1840s, Babbage had won and lost government funding for a mathematical calculator, fallen out with the skilled craftsman building the precision parts for his machine, and was close to giving up on his project. At this point, Lovelace stepped in as an advocate.

To make Babbage’s calculator known to a British audience, Lovelace proposed to translate into English an article that described the Analytical Engine. The article was written in French by the Italian mathematician Luigi Menabrea and published in a Swiss journal. Scholars believe that Babbage encouraged her to add notes of her own.

Ada Lovelace envisioned in the early 19th century the possibilities of computing.

In her notes, which ended up twice as long as the original article, Lovelace drew on different areas of her education. Lovelace began by describing how to code instructions onto cards with punched holes, like those used for the Jacquard weaving loom, a device patented in 1804 that used punch cards to automate weaving patterns in fabric.

Having learned embroidery herself, Lovelace was familiar with the repetitive patterns used for handicrafts. Similarly repetitive steps were needed for mathematical calculations. To avoid duplicating cards for repetitive steps, Lovelace used loops, nested loops and conditional testing in her program instructions.

The notes included instructions on how to calculate Bernoulli numbers, which Lovelace knew from her training to be important in the study of mathematics. Her program showed that the Analytical Engine was capable of performing original calculations that had not yet been performed manually. At the same time, Lovelace noted that the machine could only follow instructions and not “originate anything.”

a yellowed sheet of paper with spreadsheet-like lines — Ada Lovelace created this chart for the individual program steps to calculate Bernoulli numbers.
Courtesy of Linda Hall Library of Science, Engineering & Technology, CC BY-ND

Finally, Lovelace recognized that the numbers manipulated by the Analytical Engine could be seen as other types of symbols, such as musical notes. An accomplished singer and pianist, Lovelace was familiar with musical notation symbols representing aspects of musical performance such as pitch and duration, and she had manipulated logical symbols in her correspondence with De Morgan. It was not a large step for her to realize that the Analytical Engine could process symbols — not just crunch numbers — and even compose music.

A well-rounded thinker

Inventing computer programming was not the first time Lovelace brought her knowledge from different areas to bear on a new subject. For example, as a young girl, she was fascinated with flying machines. Bringing together biology, mechanics and poetry, she asked her mother for anatomical books to study the function of bird wings. She built and experimented with wings, and in her letters, she metaphorically expressed her longing for her mother in the language of flying.

Despite her talents in logic and math, Lovelace didn’t pursue a scientific career. She was independently wealthy and never earned money from her scientific pursuits. This was common, however, at a time when freedom – including financial independence – was equated with the capability to impartially conduct scientific experiments. In addition, Lovelace devoted just over a year to her only publication, the translation of and notes on Menabrea’s paper about the Analytical Engine. Otherwise, in her life cut short by cancer at age 37, she vacillated between math, music, her mother’s demands, care for her own three children, and eventually a passion for gambling. Lovelace thus may not be an obvious model as a female scientist for girls today.

However, I find Lovelace’s way of drawing on her well-rounded education to solve difficult problems inspirational. True, she lived in an age before scientific specialization. Even Babbage was a polymath who worked in mathematical calculation and mechanical innovation. He also published a treatise on industrial manufacturing and another on religious questions of creationism.

But Lovelace applied knowledge from what we today think of as disparate fields in the sciences, arts and the humanities. A well-rounded thinker, she created solutions that were well ahead of her time.

About the Author:

Corinna Schlombs, Associate Professor of History, Rochester Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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