InvestMacro

Currency Speculators push Mexican Peso bullish bets to 168-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 30th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (18,612 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (4,955 contracts), British Pound (1,646 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,528 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (233 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (468 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-15,533 contracts) with the EuroFX (-8,011 contracts), the Mexican Peso (1,062 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,417 contracts) and Bitcoin (-706 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators push Mexican Peso bullish bets to 168-week high

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the continued gains for the Mexican peso positioning. Large speculators raised their bullish bets for the Mexican peso this week for the fifth straight week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks.

Peso bets have now improved by a total of +129,731 contracts since the beginning of 2023 (a total of 22 weeks), going from a total of -56,376 contracts on January 3rd to a total of +78,005 contracts this week. This rise in the speculator sentiment has pushed the current net position to the highest level in the past 168 weeks, dating all the way back to the height of the pandemic on March 10th of 2020.

The peso has been riding the tide of record high interest rates in Mexico that had risen to 11.25 percent level at the central bank meeting in March. However, the Mexican Central Bank, in their May meeting, held their rate steady and look to continue to do so for the time being with inflation subsiding in the latest data-points.

The Mexican peso exchange rate versus the US dollar has been surging higher this year with the MXN hitting a new 7-year high in this week’s trading. Overall, the peso is higher against the dollar in 2023 by approximately 15 percent and is trading at the best levels since 2016.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-30-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	32,373	28	12,768	46	-16,260	50	3,492	55
EUR	775,142	81	165,725	82	-214,015	18	48,290	56
GBP	240,301	61	13,235	80	-15,208	24	1,973	62
JPY	243,237	75	-96,193	10	106,512	88	-10,319	32
CHF	41,354	40	-435	53	1,533	48	-1,098	54
CAD	179,871	50	-29,914	27	39,037	83	-9,123	3
AUD	204,963	94	-44,126	44	59,100	63	-14,974	16
NZD	39,507	33	-130	53	1,195	49	-1,065	37
MXN	224,395	46	78,005	100	-83,021	0	5,016	75
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	64,846	59	31,275	76	-35,269	21	3,994	76
Bitcoin	11,715	45	187	80	-624	0	437	23

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the EuroFX (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (80 percent), Bitcoin (80 percent) and the Brazilian Real (76 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (10 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (27 percent), the Australian Dollar (44 percent) and the US Dollar Index (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (46.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.7 percent)
EuroFX (82.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (85.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (80.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (79.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (9.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (19.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (53.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (52.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (26.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (43.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (39.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (53.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (52.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (99.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (77.4 percent)
Bitcoin (80.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (92.5 percent)

Brazilian Real & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (22 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (15 percent), the Bitcoin (12 percent) and the Swiss Franc (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-2 percent), EuroFX (1 percent) and the US Dollar Index (4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (3.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.4 percent)
EuroFX (0.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (12.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-24.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (11.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-10.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (10.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (22.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (25.1 percent)
Bitcoin (11.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (35.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.9	2.5	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.5	52.8	7.5
– Net Position:	12,768	-16,260	3,492
– Gross Longs:	23,927	819	5,936
– Gross Shorts:	11,159	17,079	2,444
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	49.9	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-6.8	22.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 165,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 173,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	53.7	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	81.3	5.9
– Net Position:	165,725	-214,015	48,290
– Gross Longs:	241,817	415,872	93,836
– Gross Shorts:	76,092	629,887	45,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	18.2	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-0.2	-1.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,589 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	51.6	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	57.9	11.5
– Net Position:	13,235	-15,208	1,973
– Gross Longs:	70,320	124,002	29,613
– Gross Shorts:	57,085	139,210	27,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.4	23.8	61.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-4.9	-9.3

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -96,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,533 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	68.6	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.3	24.8	16.3
– Net Position:	-96,193	106,512	-10,319
– Gross Longs:	40,736	166,931	29,299
– Gross Shorts:	136,929	60,419	39,618
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	87.6	32.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.2	21.9	-11.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	44.9	32.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	41.2	35.3
– Net Position:	-435	1,533	-1,098
– Gross Longs:	8,482	18,560	13,516
– Gross Shorts:	8,917	17,027	14,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	47.5	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-3.1	-8.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	59.6	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	37.9	20.3
– Net Position:	-29,914	39,037	-9,123
– Gross Longs:	37,619	107,243	27,430
– Gross Shorts:	67,533	68,206	36,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	82.7	2.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-2.1	-29.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -44,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,081 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	53.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.2	24.6	16.8
– Net Position:	-44,126	59,100	-14,974
– Gross Longs:	68,969	109,462	19,509
– Gross Shorts:	113,095	50,362	34,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.9	63.0	15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	6.4	-16.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	47.1	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	44.1	12.0
– Net Position:	-130	1,195	-1,065
– Gross Longs:	16,081	18,608	3,670
– Gross Shorts:	16,211	17,413	4,735
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.2	49.3	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-5.9	-14.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 78,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,062 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	44.1	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	81.1	1.3
– Net Position:	78,005	-83,021	5,016
– Gross Longs:	115,535	98,971	7,942
– Gross Shorts:	37,530	181,992	2,926
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-14.9	3.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 31,275 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,692 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.3	29.1	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	83.5	9.3
– Net Position:	31,275	-35,269	3,994
– Gross Longs:	35,223	18,861	9,998
– Gross Shorts:	3,948	54,130	6,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	21.3	75.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-25.2	22.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.2	2.1	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.6	7.5	6.3
– Net Position:	187	-624	437
– Gross Longs:	9,040	251	1,178
– Gross Shorts:	8,853	875	741
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.2	35.2	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-18.8	-5.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

04 Jun

Speculators drop 2-Year, 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds bets to new record lows

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (144,765 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (47,285 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (9,208 contracts) and the Eurodollar (3,739 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-91,660 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-78,783 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-79,661 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-49,768 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-16,677 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators drop 2-Year, 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds bets to new record lows

Highlighting the COT bonds data this week was the further rise in the record bearish speculator positions for the 2-Year, 5-Year and 10-Year bonds.

The large speculators in the 2-Year bonds sharply decreased (weekly change of -79,661 contracts) their bets for the fifth consecutive week this week. The speculative position has now added a gigantic total of -423,556 contracts to the bearish position in just the past five weeks alone. This brings the overall net position to the new all-time record bearish level of -969,863 contracts.

The 5-Year Bond speculator positions also fell once again this week by -49,768 contracts and have now declined for six consecutive weeks. The 5-Year speculator bets have added a total of -229,335 contracts to the bearish position in just the past six weeks and have established a new record bearish level of -983,837 contracts.

Large speculative 10-Year Bond positions also continued to fall this week for a second straight week. The -157,979 contract shortfall over the past two weeks has dropped the 10-Year to its own all-time record low for a second consecutive week with this week’s record at a total of -850,421 contracts.

The latest data is through Tuesday and prior to the final agreement on the debt ceiling so it will be interesting to see if there are sharp adjustments made in next week’s data with a new debt ceiling deal done.

All three bond markets saw higher futures prices to close out the week and remain off their lows of this bearish cycle despite the speculator’s historically weak sentiment. The 2-Year is higher by approximately 1.40 percent from its March 2023 low, the 5-Year is higher by approximately 3 percent from the October 2022 low while the 10-Year is higher by approximately 4.50 percent from its own October 2022 low-point.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-30-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	560,386	0	-37,810	73	45,422	23	-7,612	98
FedFunds	1,855,851	77	-180,155	17	189,980	83	-9,825	72
2-Year	3,162,876	93	-969,863	0	885,109	100	84,754	96
Long T-Bond	1,280,460	78	-59,913	65	12,279	15	47,634	83
10-Year	4,728,273	90	-850,421	0	758,535	100	91,886	94
5-Year	4,871,724	88	-983,837	0	922,460	100	61,377	98

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (98 percent) and the Eurodollar (73 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (65 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the Fed Funds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (17.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (7.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (7.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (21.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (12.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (65.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (70.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (18.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (14.8 percent)
Eurodollar (73.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (73.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (98.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (86.3 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (54 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-37.3 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-21 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-17 percent) and the Fed Funds (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-7.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (9.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-37.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-37.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-21.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-15.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-16.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (18.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (29.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-4.2 percent)
Eurodollar (0.3 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (15.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (54.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (4.7 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	61.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.6	53.3	11.2
– Net Position:	-37,810	45,422	-7,612
– Gross Longs:	161,451	344,051	54,884
– Gross Shorts:	199,261	298,629	62,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.1	22.8	97.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	-0.0	-2.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 43,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 144,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -101,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	61.0	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	61.3	0.6
– Net Position:	43,222	-28,251	-14,971
– Gross Longs:	1,690,850	6,052,948	45,501
– Gross Shorts:	1,647,628	6,081,199	60,472
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.0	3.1	79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.2	-53.2	-7.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -180,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -91,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	76.9	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	66.7	2.9
– Net Position:	-180,155	189,980	-9,825
– Gross Longs:	115,276	1,427,182	43,471
– Gross Shorts:	295,431	1,237,202	53,296
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	82.8	71.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	7.3	4.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -969,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -79,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -890,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	83.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	55.9	4.7
– Net Position:	-969,863	885,109	84,754
– Gross Longs:	242,645	2,651,778	233,553
– Gross Shorts:	1,212,508	1,766,669	148,799
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	96.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.3	39.2	14.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -983,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -49,768 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -934,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	83.4	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	64.5	6.3
– Net Position:	-983,837	922,460	61,377
– Gross Longs:	338,249	4,064,536	368,659
– Gross Shorts:	1,322,086	3,142,076	307,282
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	97.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.2	20.5	6.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -850,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -78,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -771,638 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	79.8	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	63.8	6.9
– Net Position:	-850,421	758,535	91,886
– Gross Longs:	412,506	3,774,585	417,126
– Gross Shorts:	1,262,927	3,016,050	325,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	12.7	11.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -110,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 47,285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -158,079 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	75.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	64.9	14.7
– Net Position:	-110,794	170,548	-59,754
– Gross Longs:	203,767	1,258,392	185,836
– Gross Shorts:	314,561	1,087,844	245,590
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	70.6	78.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-25.0	12.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -59,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,236 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	73.3	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	72.3	10.9
– Net Position:	-59,913	12,279	47,634
– Gross Longs:	108,088	938,620	187,052
– Gross Shorts:	168,001	926,341	139,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	15.0	83.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-12.1	-16.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -399,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -409,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	81.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	58.3	8.0
– Net Position:	-399,900	342,324	57,576
– Gross Longs:	80,393	1,198,201	175,098
– Gross Shorts:	480,293	855,877	117,522
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.7	71.7	97.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-2.7	6.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

04 Jun

Copper Speculators added to their bearish positions for 167-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (8,584 contracts) with Steel (12 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-5,894 contracts), Silver (-834 contracts), Palladium (-761 contracts) and Platinum (-4,073 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Copper Speculators added to their bearish positions for 167-week low

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued slide for the Copper speculative positions.

The large speculator position in Copper futures fell by -5,894 contracts this week and have now declined in five out of the past six weeks. The decrease in Copper bets has taken the current net contracts from a standing of +8,934 contracts on April 18th to a total of -35,702 contracts this week for an overall 6-week decline by -44,636 contracts.

This week’s standing marks the most bearish level of the past 167-weeks, dating back to March 17th of 2020 when bearish positions were -38,055 contracts.

Copper prices have been on the decline since last year with prices down by a little over 25 percent since the highs of March 2022. Recent weakness in China’s economy is continuing to weigh on Copper’s outlook. The futures price closed higher this week at $3.72 and bounced off the 200-week moving average which coincides with a $3.65 support level. Futures prices had fallen in five out of the previous six weeks before this week’s slight rebound.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-30-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	449,515	13	169,316	52	-190,005	51	20,689	32
Silver	133,619	18	21,124	48	-34,536	52	13,412	41
Copper	223,185	61	-35,702	0	34,259	100	1,443	28
Palladium	10,658	64	-6,050	10	6,472	91	-422	16
Platinum	69,929	72	23,406	70	-27,973	36	4,567	29

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (70 percent) and Steel (58 percent) lead the metals markets this week. comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (0 percent) and Palladium (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (51.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (47.8 percent)
Silver (48.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (49.6 percent)
Copper (0.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.1 percent)
Platinum (69.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (79.0 percent)
Palladium (9.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.7 percent)
Steel (57.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.8 percent)

Platinum & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (-2 percent) and Steel (-2 percent) are the leaders over the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-39 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Gold (-9 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-9.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-14.1 percent)
Silver (-7.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-2.5 percent)
Copper (-38.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-22.0 percent)
Platinum (-2.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.6 percent)
Palladium (-3.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.5 percent)
Steel (-1.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 169,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 160,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.8	29.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	71.9	5.1
– Net Position:	169,316	-190,005	20,689
– Gross Longs:	237,306	133,329	43,611
– Gross Shorts:	67,990	323,334	22,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	50.6	31.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	10.2	-14.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -834 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	31.1	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	57.0	9.0
– Net Position:	21,124	-34,536	13,412
– Gross Longs:	54,837	41,602	25,484
– Gross Shorts:	33,713	76,138	12,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.4	52.1	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	5.0	7.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -35,702 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	48.9	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.7	33.5	6.7
– Net Position:	-35,702	34,259	1,443
– Gross Longs:	55,099	109,115	16,379
– Gross Shorts:	90,801	74,856	14,936
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	27.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.6	41.8	-37.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,406 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.7	29.6	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	69.7	3.9
– Net Position:	23,406	-27,973	4,567
– Gross Longs:	37,534	20,734	7,315
– Gross Shorts:	14,128	48,707	2,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.6	35.6	29.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	0.5	9.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -761 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	70.1	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.6	9.4	16.2
– Net Position:	-6,050	6,472	-422
– Gross Longs:	1,584	7,473	1,308
– Gross Shorts:	7,634	1,001	1,730
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	7.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	91.5	16.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	2.7	5.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	83.3	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	64.6	1.1
– Net Position:	-5,299	5,413	-114
– Gross Longs:	2,291	24,022	200
– Gross Shorts:	7,590	18,609	314
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	42.8	5.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	2.3	-33.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

04 Jun

Wheat Speculators continue to raise bearish bets to 279-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (41,860 contracts) with Soybeans (609 contracts) and Cocoa (199 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-23,423 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-15,489 contracts), Coffee (-9,128 contracts), Cotton (-7,707 contracts), Wheat (-7,677 contracts), Lean Hogs (-2,262 contracts), Soybean Oil (-3,385 contracts) and Live Cattle (-269 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Wheat Speculators continue to raise bearish bets to 279-week high

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the rising bearish level of the Wheat’s speculator’s positioning.

Wheat speculator bets continued to fall again this week for a second straight week and for the eleventh time out of the past fifteen weeks. Speculator positions have now added approximately -60,000 contracts to the bearish level over the past fifteen weeks.

The Wheat speculator standing, currently at -93,996 contracts, has fallen to the most bearish level of the past 279 weeks, dating back to January 23rd of 2018.

Wheat prices have also been on the downtrend since hitting all-time record high levels in March of 2022 and have now fallen over 50 percent from those highest levels of 2022. Wheat futures closed this week at $619.00 with the low of this week touching the lowest price since December of 2020 near 573.20

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-30-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,920,740	47	162,591	2	-192,877	97	30,286	40
Gold	449,515	13	169,316	52	-190,005	51	20,689	32
Silver	133,619	18	21,124	48	-34,536	52	13,412	41
Copper	223,185	61	-35,702	0	34,259	100	1,443	28
Palladium	10,658	64	-6,050	10	6,472	91	-422	16
Platinum	69,929	72	23,406	70	-27,973	36	4,567	29
Natural Gas	1,359,496	79	-106,170	30	74,969	69	31,201	54
Brent	148,868	21	-53,294	0	48,912	100	4,382	68
Heating Oil	309,819	40	18,341	61	-22,943	70	4,602	14
Soybeans	672,482	21	29,814	1	-4,162	95	-25,652	32
Corn	1,319,205	17	-20,407	27	72,210	82	-51,803	25
Coffee	202,708	14	23,620	52	-23,623	52	3	13
Sugar	962,437	62	250,387	79	-293,732	20	43,345	59
Wheat	395,158	63	-93,996	0	88,847	100	5,149	91

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (92 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (79 percent), Soybean Meal (57 percent) and Coffee (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Soybean Oil (0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Wheat (0 percent) and the Soybeans (1 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (27.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (22.1 percent)
Sugar (79.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (87.7 percent)
Coffee (51.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.0 percent)
Soybeans (0.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (57.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (65.1 percent)
Live Cattle (91.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (92.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (1.9 percent)
Cotton (19.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (25.5 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (99.8 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.5 percent)

Cocoa & Cotton top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (8 percent) and Cotton (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Soybeans (-58 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-19 percent), Wheat (-17 percent) and Corn (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-21.2 percent)
Sugar (-6.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.0 percent)
Coffee (-13.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.1 percent)
Soybeans (-58.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-59.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-12.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-12.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-18.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-3.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-0.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (7.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (-7.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-8.0 percent)
Cotton (7.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.3 percent)
Cocoa (7.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (6.6 percent)
Wheat (-16.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-13.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -20,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 41,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	51.9	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	46.5	12.7
– Net Position:	-20,407	72,210	-51,803
– Gross Longs:	274,956	685,222	115,112
– Gross Shorts:	295,363	613,012	166,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.4	82.2	24.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.1	16.1	10.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 250,387 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -23,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 273,810 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	40.2	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	70.7	4.8
– Net Position:	250,387	-293,732	43,345
– Gross Longs:	332,464	386,730	89,595
– Gross Shorts:	82,077	680,462	46,250
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	20.0	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	9.9	-18.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,748 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	46.9	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	58.5	3.4
– Net Position:	23,620	-23,623	3
– Gross Longs:	47,353	95,031	6,827
– Gross Shorts:	23,733	118,654	6,824
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	52.4	12.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	14.6	-15.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,205 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	53.7	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	54.3	10.4
– Net Position:	29,814	-4,162	-25,652
– Gross Longs:	132,301	360,791	44,298
– Gross Shorts:	102,487	364,953	69,950
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	95.4	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-58.0	50.3	4.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	56.8	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	50.7	6.1
– Net Position:	-31,248	33,635	-2,387
– Gross Longs:	80,635	311,897	31,021
– Gross Shorts:	111,883	278,262	33,408
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	13.8	-19.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 94,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	39.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	61.7	6.9
– Net Position:	94,533	-107,413	12,880
– Gross Longs:	121,664	191,186	46,401
– Gross Shorts:	27,131	298,599	33,521
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	46.6	13.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	20.7	-16.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 101,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.1	27.3	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	54.8	12.8
– Net Position:	101,378	-90,357	-11,021
– Gross Longs:	151,401	89,705	31,082
– Gross Shorts:	50,023	180,062	42,103
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.8	11.7	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	2.9	-9.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,262 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	38.1	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	24.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-36,114	33,233	2,881
– Gross Longs:	54,977	89,961	22,880
– Gross Shorts:	91,091	56,728	19,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	96.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	8.7	-3.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,707 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	48.6	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	56.7	5.5
– Net Position:	14,612	-15,861	1,249
– Gross Longs:	58,770	95,264	12,016
– Gross Shorts:	44,158	111,125	10,767
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.7	79.6	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.6	-5.9	-9.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 65,573 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,374 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	29.7	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	50.7	3.3
– Net Position:	65,573	-71,049	5,476
– Gross Longs:	142,385	100,654	16,614
– Gross Shorts:	76,812	171,703	11,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-8.3	6.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -93,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	39.1	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.0	16.7	8.6
– Net Position:	-93,996	88,847	5,149
– Gross Longs:	107,338	154,656	39,165
– Gross Shorts:	201,334	65,809	34,016
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	90.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.7	18.9	-0.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

03 Jun

Speculator Extremes: Live Cattle, Cocoa, Lean Hogs, Wheat & Brent top Bull/Bear Leaders

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 30th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 8.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -1,668 net contracts this week with a change of 9 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 7.5 this week. The speculator position registered 65,573 net contracts this week with a weekly edge higher of 199 contracts in speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 15.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 78,005 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,062 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 98.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 54.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 43,222 net contracts this week with a jump of 144,765 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 91.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.8 this week.

The speculator position was 101,378 net contracts this week with a small decline of -269 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -36,114 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,262 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.6 this week. The speculator position was -31,248 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -3,385 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Wheat speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -93,996 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,677 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Brent Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.4 this week. The speculator position was -53,294 net contracts this week with a drop of -5,488 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

10-Year Note

Finally, the 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.5 this week. The speculator position was -850,421 net contracts this week with a decrease of -78,783 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

02 Jun

War in Ukraine might give the Chinese yuan the boost it needs to become a major global currency – and be a serious contender against the US dollar

By Tuugi Chuluun, Loyola University Maryland

The Chinese economy’s sheer size and rapid growth are impressive.

China maintained one of the highest economic growth rates in the world for more than a quarter of a century, helping lift over 800 million people out of poverty in just a few decades. The country is the largest exporter in the world and the most important trading partner of Japan, Germany, Brazil and many other countries. It has the second-largest economy after the U.S., based on the market exchange rate, and the largest based on purchasing power.

And yet the yuan still lags as a major global currency. The war in Ukraine, which started in February 2022, may change that.

As a professor of finance and expert on international finance, I understand how this geopolitical conflict may put China’s currency on the next phase of its path to becoming a global currency – and prompt the onset of the decline of the U.S. dollar from its current dominance.

Chinese yuan’s slow progress

China has long wanted to make the yuan a global force and has mounted significant efforts to do so in recent years.

For example, the Chinese government launched the Cross-Border Interbank Payments System, or CIPS, in 2015 to facilitate cross-border payments in yuan. Three years later, in 2018, it launched the world’s first yuan-denominated crude oil futures contracts to allow exporters to sell oil in yuan.

China has also emerged perhaps as the world’s largest creditor, with the government and state-controlled enterprises extending loans to dozens of developing countries. And China is developing a digital yuan as one of the world’s first central bank digital currencies. Even the trading hours for the yuan were recently extended on the mainland.

Thanks to these efforts, the yuan is now the fifth-most-traded currency in the world. That is a phenomenal rise from its 35th place in 2001. The yuan is also the fifth-most-actively used currency for global payments as of April 2023, up from 30th place in early 2011.

Rankings can be misleading, though. The yuan’s average trading volume is still less than a 10th of the U.S. dollar’s. Moreover, almost all trading was against the U.S. dollar, with little trading against other currencies.

And when it comes to global payments, the actual share of the yuan is a mere 2.3%, compared with 42.7% for the dollar and 31.7% for the euro. The yuan also constituted less than 3% of the world foreign exchange reserves at the end of 2022, compared with 58% for the dollar and 20% for the euro.

US dollar’s dominance questioned

The U.S. dollar has reigned supreme as the dominant global currency for decades – and concern about how that benefits the U.S. and potentially hurts emerging markets is not new.

The value of the U.S. dollar appreciated significantly against most other currencies in 2022 as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates. This had negative consequences for residents of almost any country that borrows in dollars, pays for imports in dollars, or buys wheat, oil or other commodities priced in dollars, as these transactions became more expensive.

After Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, the U.S. and its Western allies put sanctions on Russia, including cutting Russia’s access to the global dollar-based payments system known as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or SWIFT. That clearly displayed how the dollar can be weaponized.

With Russia largely cut off from international financial markets, it stepped up its trade with China. Russia began receiving payments for coal and gas in yuan, and Moscow increased the yuan holdings in its foreign currency reserves. Russian companies like Rosneft issued bonds denominated in yuan. According to Bloomberg, the yuan is now the most-traded currency in Russia.

Other countries took notice of Russia’s increasing use of the yuan and saw an opportunity to decrease their own dependency on the dollar.

Bangladesh is now paying Russia in yuan for the construction of a nuclear power station. France is accepting payment in yuan for liquefied natural gas bought from China’s state-owned oil company. A Brazilian bank controlled by a Chinese state bank is becoming the first Latin American bank to participate directly in China’s payments system, CIPS. Iraq wants to pay for imports from China in yuan, and even Tesco, the British retailer, wants to pay for its Chinese imported goods in yuan.

The combined dollar amount of these transactions is still relatively small, but the shift to yuan is significant.

Yuan still not freely available

China keeps a tight grip on money coming in and out of the country. Such capital controls and limited transparency in Chinese financial markets mean China still lacks the deep and free financial markets that are required to make the yuan a major global currency.

For the yuan to achieve a truly global standing, it needs to be freely available for cross-border investment and not just serve as a payment medium to accommodate trade.

But the war in Ukraine may have just made it feasible for the yuan to eventually join the ranks of the dollar and the euro – even if the volume isn’t there yet. And any U.S. policy decisions that weaken the reputation and strength of U.S. institutions – such as the recent drama over raising the debt ceiling, which brought the government to the brink of default – will accelerate the rise of the yuan and decline of the dollar.

About the Author:

Tuugi Chuluun, Associate Professor of Finance, Loyola University Maryland

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Forex and Currency News Opinions

02 Jun

The ECB will raise rates until the end of the summer. A deal to raise the US debt ceiling has been approved in Congress

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.21%, and the S&P500 Index (US500) closed higher by 0.99%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.63% on Thursday. ADP private sector employment data in the US pleased a job growth of 278,000 (higher than expected), but wage growth is gradually slowing down. With the number of new jobless claims up slightly last week, the labor market remains resilient, which may encourage the Fed to keep raising rates. The focus now shifts to the Labor Department’s unemployment report for May (Nonfarm Payrolls), which will be published today. The data will help determine whether the Fed will stick with an aggressive rate hike. The better the data comes out, the more likely a rate hike will be in June. A rate hike is positive for the dollar and negative for indices and gold, and vice versa.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said the US Central Bank is close to the point where it can stop raising interest rates and move to hold them at current levels in an effort to lower inflation even further. The head of the Philadelphia Fed repeated comments yesterday that he favors not raising rates at the June meeting, even if officials then have to raise them again at later meetings.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up Wednesday. German DAX (DE30) gained 1.21% yesterday, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.55%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 1.54%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 0.59% on the day.

The ECB’s May monetary policy report confirmed that the central bank remains concerned about the risks of rising inflation, and despite slowing inflationary pressures, it was deemed necessary to emphasize that rate hikes will continue in the future. The key challenge for the ECB is to properly calibrate monetary policy in order to return inflation to target levels in time without unduly harming the economy.

Crude oil prices jumped more than 3% on Thursday, offsetting losses of 7% from the previous three trading days, as oil traders expect OPEC+ to announce another production cut at its meeting this weekend. That was one reason oil prices rebounded later in the week, despite a depressing weekly report on oil supply and demand released by the US government.

Asian markets traded yesterday without a single dynamic. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.84% over the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended Thursday down 0.10%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) lost 0.25%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day with a 0.27% gain.

Most Asian stock markets rose on Friday amid optimism over the approval of a deal to raise the US debt ceiling and prevent a default, while Chinese markets are recovering from six-month lows amid renewed hopes for economic recovery in the country.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,221.02 +41.19 (+0.99%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,061.57 +153.30 (+0.47%)

DAX (DE40) 15,853.66 +189.64 (+1.21%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,490.27 +44.13 (+0.59%)

USD Index 103.56 -0.77 (-0.74%)

Important events for today:

– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

02 Jun

Week Ahead: OPEC+ to shock Brent back to $80?

By ForexTime

The alliance of 23 oil-producing countries will meet on Sunday, June 4th, to decide how much oil they’ll pump out into the world.

This critical decision could rock oil prices at the onset of the coming week, which also features these major events on the global macroeconomic calendar:

Sunday, June 4

OPEC+ meeting

Monday, June 5

CNH: China May Caixin services PMI
EUR: Eurozone April PPI; May services PMI (final); ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
US: US April factory orders; May ISM services index, services PMI (final)
Apple to unveil mixed-reality headset at Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC)

Tuesday, June 6

AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision
EUR: Eurozone April retail sales; Germany April factory orders

Wednesday, June 7

AUD: Australia 1Q GDP; RBA Governor Philip Lowe speech
CNH: China May forex reserves, external trade
EUR: Germany April industrial production
CAD: Bank of Canada interest rate decision
Crude: US weekly crude inventories
OECD releases global economic outlook

Thursday, June 8

JPY: Japan 1Q GDP (final)
AUD: Australia April trade balance
EUR: Eurozone 1Q GDP (final)
USD: US weekly initial jobless claims

Friday, June 9

CNH: China May CPI and PPI
CAD: Canada May unemployment

Why is the OPEC+ decision important?

These 23 countries combined account for about 40% of the total global supply of oil.

The levels of oil supplied to the world, relative to global demand, is a crucial equation that determines prices.

To demonstrate how much sway OPEC+ has over oil prices, one merely has to consider the gap up in Brent prices a couple of months ago!

On April 2nd (also a Sunday), OPEC+ shocked global markets by announcing a production cut of about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) starting in May through end-2023.

That unexpected decision sent Brent skyrocketing when markets kicked off trading for that week, peaking at $87.16 on April 12th before since unwinding all of those gains (more on this shortly).

Still, that early-April shocker signalled to markets that OPEC+ would rather see oil prices above $80/bbl, rather than below that psychological mark.

But why have oil prices fallen since?

Generally, prices tend to fall when supply is greater than demand (as appears to be the case at present, due to persistent Russian oil output).

And fallen, they have.

Brent oil dropped by 9.16% in May, its largest monthly drop since September 2022.
US crude fell by 11.32 last month, its largest monthly decline since November 2021.

Markets fear that global demand is still too weak to absorb the existing global supplies, despite the OPEC+ production cuts.

We’ve already seen this week how China’s manufacturing sector fell into a deeper contraction in May. Note that China is the second-largest economy in the world, and also its largest oil importer.

Furthermore, central banks globally have been hiking interest rates in order to “destroy demand”, to subdue red-hot inflation. Markets are concerned that those rate hikes would ultimately trigger a recession, which implies much less demand for oil.

What are markets expecting for the June 4th OPEC+ decision?

The alliance is expected to stand pat on its production levels.

OPEC+ likely wants to wait it out and see how its prior production cut filters through global markets.

Still, the fact that oil is trading well below $80/bbl may raise the chances of yet another OPEC+ output cut.

Saudi-Russian tensions to resurface?

The de facto leaders of OPEC+, namely Saudi Arabia and Russia, issued contrasting statements in the lead up to this meeting:

Last week, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman sent out a warning to short-sellers (those betting that oil prices will go down further), to “watch out”. Such comments suggest that another output cut is coming.
However, just a few days later, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that he doesn’t think there will be “any new steps” taken at this weekend’s meeting.

Such conflicting rhetoric are merely the latest tell-tale signs of what has been a long-fraught relationship between Saudi Arabia and Russia within OPEC+.

Recall back to the onset of the global pandemic in 2020, it was the tensions between these two oil giants that led to the gap down in Brent, as prices careened into sub-$20/bbl territory.

Despite the output cuts pledged collectively in April 2023, industry data suggests that Russia’s oil output has not materially dropped since, despite insisting it has followed through with its own 500,000 (bpd) reduction.

According to data from Bloomberg and analytics company Kpler, crude shipments from Russian ports are anywhere from 320,000 to over 480,000 bpd (or about 8%) higher than back in February.

OPEC shuns top news outlets

Adding to the drama surrounding this weekend’s meeting, OPEC chose not to invite journalists from Bloomberg, Reuters, and Wall Street Journal from covering this highly-awaited event. No reason was given.

This shroud of mystery is only ramping up the uncertainty surrounding the June 4th OPEC+ meeting.

How might Brent react next week?

Should there be another unexpected production cut, Brent could race back towards $80/bbl.

This would greatly depend on the size of the cuts announced, and the likelihood of it being implemented in the real world (as opposed to being mere politically-correct mathematical adjustments).

However, if OPEC+ stands pat, as widely expected by the markets, then oil prices are set to continue languishing under the weight of demand-side fears.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

01 Jun

Plastic recycling is failing – here’s how the world must respond

By Cressida Bowyer, University of Portsmouth; Keiron Roberts, University of Portsmouth, and Stephanie Northen, University of Portsmouth

Recycling was once considered the obvious solution to the excessive amount of new (or virgin) plastic produced each year. This is no longer realistic. Global recycling capacity simply cannot keep up with the taking, making and wasting of natural resources.

Growing mountains of plastic waste are accumulating in the poorest countries as affluent nations such as the UK ship their recycling overseas. But some nations are importing far more plastic waste than they can possibly recycle.

The recycling process itself also creates problems. A new report by Greenpeace and the International Pollutants Elimination Network has revealed how plastics which are made with or come into contact with toxic chemicals, such as flame retardants, can contaminate the recycling process by spreading these toxins through subsequent batches of plastic waste. Another recent study showed that recycling facilities can release hundreds of tonnes of microplastics into the environment each year.

Only 6-9% of all plastic ever produced has been sent for recycling. Although plastic and other waste is collected for recycling in most countries, the amount of material that is remade into the same or similar products (what is called closed-loop recycling) is extremely low. Only 2% of plastic waste is recycled in a closed loop and not turned into something of lower quality, which is called downcycling. Recycling can not fully replace virgin material as it can only be recycled twice before losing necessary properties, and so most recycling results in a downgraded material that cannot be used for the same purpose.

A more sustainable approach would prioritise preventing plastic waste by taking action at earlier stages of a plastic product’s lifecycle: reducing how much plastic is ultimately made, reusing what exists and replacing plastic with alternative materials where appropriate.

Reduce

Manufacturers must stop making so much unnecessary plastic to reduce the amount entering the economy. There is no case for making plastics that are impossible to collect, reuse or recycle, or are toxic. Yet they are abundant: think multilayered sachets, thin films and wrappers. These should be phased out as a priority.

Global caps on plastic production could restrict its use to reusable products and packaging, reducing the pressure on recycling systems.

You can refuse single-use packaging when shopping if alternatives are available and affordable. Choose loose vegetables, or products wrapped in packaging that can be refilled.

Reuse

Using the plastic you already have for as long as possible reduces the amount of new products and packaging that need to be made and how much waste is ultimately sent for recycling.

Roughly 250 billion single-use coffee cups are used worldwide every year – a figure that could be slashed by governments setting national mandates for reusable cups and bottles. This might involve shops, cafés and other venues providing reusable packaging for any products they sell and ensuring each one is used, tracked, washed, returned and replenished for the next consumer cycle.

Substitute

Metals, glass, or paper can be used instead of plastic, but there is no universal sustainable alternative. The most appropriate material depends on the item’s use.

The environmental consequences of any material should be rigorously assessed across its entire life cycle – from production to use and disposal – to ensure it does more good than harm. And such assessments must consider all social, environmental and economic costs.

The true cost of making, distributing and disposing of plastic is estimated to be more than ten times greater than what the customer pays for the product. Including the hidden costs of environmental damage and human misery arising from pollution in the price of virgin plastic, by taxing manufacturers or retailers for instance, could boost the economic case for alternatives.

Recycling can still be useful

Not all plastics can be reused, especially medical devices. When all alternatives have been exhausted, recycling keeps material in the economy and temporarily delays the need for more virgin plastic. But the existence of recycling shouldn’t justify making more plastic.

Recycling must not pollute. Manufacturers should only make plastics which can be recycled via methods proven to be safe and clean, and ban toxic additives. Simple labelling can help consumers make informed decisions about how, where and what to either reuse or recycle, which would help prevent recycling loads becoming contaminated with non-recyclable waste and toxins.

Plastics sent for recycling should be treated in the most socially and environmentally responsible way. High-income countries which export waste to poorer countries for cheap recycling do so without guarantees that infrastructure exists to manage this waste where it ends up. The result is waste leaking into the environment, and toxic plastic blocking drainage channels and causing floods. Some of this is burned outdoors, which comes with its own risks to health and the environment. Banning or restricting exports would help.

Precarious workers in the informal waste sector collect, sort and sell recyclable materials and carry out 60% of global recycling. Waste reclaimers endure poor health and low pay but their extensive knowledge is invaluable and must be acknowledged. Policies to protect their rights and improve their livelihoods are needed.

Countries meeting in Paris for the second of five rounds of negotiations for an international treaty to end plastic pollution will discuss all areas of the plastic lifecycle – from the extraction of material to manufacturing, use and disposal. Banning unnecessary plastics, toxic additives and waste exports should be high on the agenda, along with schemes to encourage reuse and repair.

Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 10,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

Cressida Bowyer, Senior Research Fellow and Deputy Director, Revolution Plastics, University of Portsmouth; Keiron Roberts, Senior Lecturer in Sustainability and the Built Environment, University of Portsmouth, and Stephanie Northen, Research Associate, Revolution Plastics, University of Portsmouth

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

01 Jun

Treasury Bonds: How This Forecast is Playing Out

Here’s what happened with a shelf of support in the chart of the long bond

By Elliott Wave International

The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds trended higher from 1942 to 1981 — that’s 39 years.

Interestingly, yields (or interest rates) then trended lower for 39 years (1981 to 2020).

Thirty-nine years is quite a long time — well long enough for observers to get used to the idea of exceptionally low yields, even the Fed.

Indeed, here’s a Sept. 16, 2020 headline from the Wall Street Journal:

Fed Signals Low Rates Likely to Last Several Years

Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter had an entirely different perspective. Here’s what he said just a week later in his Sept. 23, 2020 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which provides analysis of major financial and cultural trends:

On September 16, Fed Chairman Powell [said] he expected short term interest rates to stay near zero as long as inflation stays below 2%, a condition he believes will maintain … through “the end of 2023.” I think there is not a chance in the world of that scenario playing out. … The probability is high that interest rates have begun a process of rising. … [emphasis added]

As we all know, interest rates or yields have risen substantially since 2020.

This chart and commentary from the May 19, 2023 Elliott Wave Theorist provide an update (Keep in mind that Elliott wave labeling is available to subscribers):

Treasury bond futures have been slipping again. As you can see in [the chart], bond prices broke a shelf of support this week and traded today at their lowest level in ten weeks. A debt crisis is brewing, and higher long term interest rates will add to the pressure.

Yes, servicing public and private debt is getting a lot more expensive. And that debt has been increasing dramatically and rapidly (CNBC, May 18):

The global debt pile grew by $8.3 trillion in the first quarter to a near-record high of $305 trillion … .

Getting back to the price pattern of the U.S. Treasury Long Bond, Elliott wave analysis can help you determine what’s next.

Of course, no method of analyzing financial markets can offer a guarantee, but Elliott Wave International knows of no other method which surpasses the usefulness of the Elliott wave model.

That said, here’s a quote from Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior:

Without Elliott, there appear to be an infinite number of possibilities for market action. What the Wave Principle provides is a means of first limiting the possibilities and then ordering the relative probabilities of possible future market paths. Elliott’s highly specific rules reduce the number of valid alternatives to a minimum. Among those, the best interpretation, sometimes called the “preferred count,” is the one that satisfies the largest number of guidelines. Other interpretations are ordered accordingly. As a result, competent analysts applying the rules and guidelines of the Wave Principle objectively should usually agree on both the list of possibilities and the order of probabilities for various possible outcomes at any particular time. That order can usually be stated with certainty. Do not assume, however, that certainty about the order of probabilities is the same as certainty about one specific outcome. Under only the rarest of circumstances do you ever know exactly what the market is going to do. You must understand and accept that even an approach that can identify high odds for a fairly specific event must be wrong some of the time.

If you’d like to read the entire online version of the book, you may do so for free once you become a member of Club EWI, the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community.

A Club EWI membership is also free.

Get started right away by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get free access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Treasury Bonds: How This Forecast is Playing Out. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Bonds Financial News

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All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

Speculators push Mexican Peso bullish bets to 168-week high

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

Brazilian Real & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Euro Currency Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Japanese Yen Futures:

Swiss Franc Futures:

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures:

Brazilian Real Futures:

Bitcoin Futures:

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

Speculators drop 2-Year, 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds bets to new record lows

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Steel

Copper Speculators added to their bearish positions for 167-week low

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

Platinum & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Silver Comex Futures:

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Platinum Futures:

Palladium Futures:

Steel Futures Futures:

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

Wheat Speculators continue to raise bearish bets to 279-week high

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

Cocoa & Cotton top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

SUGAR Futures:

COFFEE Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures:

COTTON Futures:

COCOA Futures:

WHEAT Futures:

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Cocoa Futures

Mexican Peso

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Live Cattle

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

Soybean Oil

Wheat

Brent Oil

10-Year Note

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Chinese yuan’s slow progress

US dollar’s dominance questioned

Yuan still not freely available

The alliance of 23 oil-producing countries will meet on Sunday, June 4th, to decide how much oil they’ll pump out into the world.

Why is the OPEC+ decision important?

Still, that early-April shocker signalled to markets that OPEC+ would rather see oil prices above $80/bbl, rather than below that psychological mark.

But why have oil prices fallen since?

Markets fear that global demand is still too weak to absorb the existing global supplies, despite the OPEC+ production cuts.

What are markets expecting for the June 4th OPEC+ decision?

The alliance is expected to stand pat on its production levels.