InvestMacro

The crude oil finds stability amidst price recovery

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The commodity market has stabilised as the new week begins. The price of a barrel of Brent is hovering around 85.40 USD.

The price recovery is observed for the third consecutive day. Market expectations are tied to China: there are reasons to believe that the Chinese authorities will implement additional measures in their stimulus-driven economic policy.

Meanwhile, market players continue to exercise caution. The Federal Reserve System recently announced its readiness to continue tightening its monetary policy to combat inflation. At the same time, the economic outlook for China remains uncertain.

Technical analysis of Spot Brent Crude Oil:

On the H4 Brent chart, the price has rebounded from the support level and is now developing an ascending wave to 88.50. This is a local target. After the price reaches it, a link of declining correction to 85.75 might follow (with a test from above). Next thing, a rise to 94.50 could be expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD, whose signal line has left the histogram area and is aimed strictly upwards.

On the H1 Brent chart, a structure of an impulse to rise to 85.30 has formed. Today a narrow consolidation range is expected to develop below it. An escape from the range upwards might facilitate the development of a wave to 86.66, from where the trend could continue to 88.50. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator with the signal line under 80, ready to renew the highs.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News

21 Aug

Trade of the Week: SPX500_m demands proof out of Nvidia, Jackson Hole

By ForexTime

S&P 500 on course to end 5-month winning streak
Nvidia’s forecasted 10% post-earnings move may jolt SPX500_m
Friday speech by Chair Powell to shape Fed rate hike bets
Last Friday’s (August 18th) “doji” points to market indecision ahead of such a pivotal week
Listed below: potential scenarios, support and resistance levels

It’s been an angsty August so far for the S&P 500.

This benchmark index, which is widely used to measure the overall performance of the US stock market, has fallen by about 4.8% so far this month.

The S&P 500 also appears headed for its worst monthly performance since December 2022 (down 5.9%), while its previous monthly drop was back in February 2023 (down 2.6%).

This week, the SPX500_m (which tracks the underlying S&P 500) is at the mercy of two of the largest market themes of 2023 coming head-to-head:

1) AI-mania: just hype? or real earnings booster?

Investors hope that artificial intelligence would supercharge corporate earnings for decades to come, even as the technology promises to change our everyday lives.

And few have benefited from such expectations more than Nvidia.

This chipmaker’s stocks still boast of a 196.3% year-to-date climb, being the best-performing stock on the S&P 500 so far this year, despite having dropped 8.8% from its all-time high set on July 18th.

This chipmaker still has a market cap of over US$ 1 trillion (that’s $1,000,000,000,000), making it the 4th largest stock on the benchmark S&P 500 index.

Nvidia is due to release its latest quarterly results after US markets close on Wednesday, August 23rd.

Markets are currently predicting that this stock could move by 10.2%, either up or down, on Thursday – the day after Nvidia’s earnings release.

Of course, whether this stock climb higher or drops lower depends on the reaction to Nvidia’s financial results last quarter, as well as its forward guidance for future earnings.

Broadly speaking, if Nvidia can convince markets that the AI-hype is truly translating into a meaningful earnings boost, that could help the SPX500_m pare recent losses.

2) US interest rates – higher for longer?

The annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, organized by the Kansas City Fed, is set to happen between August 24th – 26th, bringing together the world’s top central bankers, policymakers, and economists.

The highlight is, of course, the speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, on Friday, August 25th.

After all, Chair Powell leads the world’s most influential central bank – the US Federal Reserve.

Since 2022, markets have been obsessing over how high the Fed would send US interest rates.

My article this time last year (dated 22 August 2022), in previewing last year’s Jackson Hole symposium, carried these words:

“And here’s the biggest question on everyone’s minds: how much higher will the Fed hike US interest rates?”

12 months later, yet the same question remains in play.

There’s also an added layer to that question posed in August 2023:

“How long will the Fed maintain its benchmark rates at its peak, before considering a rate cut?”

Here are the market’s current expectations surrounding US interest rates:

merely an 11% chance that the Fed would trigger another 25-basis point HIKE at its September FOMC meeting
one-in-three chance (38% odds) that there would be one more 25-bps HIKE by the Fed between now and end-2023
one-in-three chance (35% odds) that there would be a 25-bps CUT by March 2024
87% chance of a Fed rate CUT by May 2024

How did markets react to Powell’s speech at 2022’s Jackson Hole event?

As a reminder, Chair Powell’s speech back on 26 August 2022 triggered a 3.4% drop in the S&P 500 on the day.

The benchmark stock index went on to fall by a further 11.85% after the previous symposium concluded, reaching its trough in October, before going on to stage an AI-fuelled rally since (albeit with a pullback so far in August 2023).

It was clear then that traders and investors willingly took to heart Powell’s tough messaging back then about “unusually large” Fed rate hikes.

Although the days of 75-bps Fed rate hikes are now relegated to the past, markets remain primed to react to Powell’s policy signals this week.

As for Chair Powell’s speech ahead of this coming weekend, here are some potential scenarios that may affect the SPX500_m:

If Chair Powell delivers a higher-for-longer message, i.e. US interest rates could go even higher and stay at that peak for longer than what markets currently expect, that could drag the SPX500_m even lower.After all, tech stocks generally do not like the thought of higher US interest rates.
And the biggest components of the S&P 500 are Big Tech names such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and of course, Nvidia.
On the other hand, if Chair Powell surprises markets and suggests that the Fed has raised its benchmark rates high enough to finally subdue multi-decade high inflation in the US, that could be cause for rejoicing among SPX500_m bulls.

From a technical perspective …

The doji candlestick formed last Friday, August 18th, points to indecision among traders, especially leading into such a week that promises stern test for the US stock market.

This doji could herald a period of price consolidation, or perhaps even the formation of a new trend.

Keeping in mind the looming fundamental catalysts as well was technical setups …

Here are some key levels to look out for on the SPX500_m daily chart:

POTENTIAL SUPPORT

4335: intraday low on August 18th/late-June lows
100-day SMA and key Fibonacci level
4301 – 4260: early-June range

POTENTIAL RESISTANCE

4400: psychologically-important mark/Fib retracement
4452 – 4463: June cycle highs
50-day simple moving average (SMA)

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

19 Aug

British Pound Sterling Speculator Bets rebound, near 16-Year Highs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (10,052 contracts) with the British Pound (3,968 contracts), US Dollar Index (2,367 contracts), Japanese Yen (2,219 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,445 contracts) and Bitcoin (437 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-10,788 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (-10,205 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-4,564 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-2,068 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-1,628 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

British Pound Sterling Speculator Bets rebound this week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is this week’s rebound and the overall strength in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling. Large speculative Sterling positions rose this week by almost +4,000 contracts and turned around a three-week streak of declines.

The Sterling speculative level has been on the move higher recently and is at its strongest levels in years with the average contract level of the past ten weeks right around +50,000 contracts. On July 18th, the bullish bets for the Sterling (+63,729 contracts) ascended to the highest level since July 31st of 2007, a span of almost exactly sixteen years.

The Pound’s positioning has been helped out by continued high inflation in the United Kingdom which brings forecasts for higher interest rates. The UK consumer inflation numbers for July came in at 6.8 percent with a core inflation reading of 6.9 percent. The Bank of England has boosted the interest rate to combat inflation for fourteen consecutive meetings and brought the rate to 5.25 percent at it’s last meeting which is the highest since 2008. The BOE may need to further push the rate higher to bring inflation back down to reasonable levels which in turn can provide the UK currency with an interest rate differential advantage against other currencies.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate against the US Dollar has been in an uptrend over recent months with the exchange rate hitting over 1.3000 in July. Since that 2023 high, the Sterling has cooled off some but remains over the psychologically significant 1.2500 exchange rate.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-15-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	26,954	1	4,991	33	-6,048	66	1,057	23
EUR	760,233	69	159,863	80	-205,284	21	45,421	51
GBP	215,340	46	50,988	91	-60,188	12	9,200	76
JPY	247,954	75	-80,961	22	90,497	80	-9,536	34
CHF	42,794	45	-4,007	46	4,200	49	-193	57
CAD	157,827	32	-11,411	44	13,769	66	-2,358	18
AUD	204,458	91	-53,397	35	65,258	68	-11,861	24
NZD	46,781	53	-2,436	47	4,969	58	-2,533	20
MXN	228,984	48	82,023	89	-85,227	11	3,204	32
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	42,031	28	23,475	66	-25,216	34	1,741	58
Bitcoin	15,432	73	-712	65	14	0	698	29

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (91 percent), the Mexican Peso (89 percent) and the EuroFX (80 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (66 percent) and Bitcoin (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (22 percent) and the US Dollar Index (33 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (35 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (33.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (29.3 percent)
EuroFX (80.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (91.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (88.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (21.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (20.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (54.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (35.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (44.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (47.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (52.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (89.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (90.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (71.4 percent)
Bitcoin (64.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (56.9 percent)

Bitcoin & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (24 percent) and the Japanese Yen (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (7 percent) and the British Pound (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-15 percent), Brazilian Real (-10 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-15.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-20.6 percent)
EuroFX (6.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (0.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (21.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (17.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-14.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (2.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-3.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-8.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (1.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-8.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-7.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-9.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-4.5 percent)
Bitcoin (23.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 4,991 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.8	5.8	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.3	28.2	12.4
– Net Position:	4,991	-6,048	1,057
– Gross Longs:	19,617	1,556	4,404
– Gross Shorts:	14,626	7,604	3,347
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.3	66.1	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	16.7	-14.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 159,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 149,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	55.4	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	82.4	6.0
– Net Position:	159,863	-205,284	45,421
– Gross Longs:	232,466	420,942	90,895
– Gross Shorts:	72,603	626,226	45,474
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.0	21.1	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-5.3	-1.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,020 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	36.0	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	63.9	11.8
– Net Position:	50,988	-60,188	9,200
– Gross Longs:	90,541	77,496	34,690
– Gross Shorts:	39,553	137,684	25,490
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.2	12.0	76.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	1.9	-8.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -80,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,180 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	70.8	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	34.3	17.6
– Net Position:	-80,961	90,497	-9,536
– Gross Longs:	34,789	175,636	34,192
– Gross Shorts:	115,750	85,139	43,728
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	79.8	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.9	-17.3	-2.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	44.0	35.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.7	34.1	36.1
– Net Position:	-4,007	4,200	-193
– Gross Longs:	8,693	18,812	15,262
– Gross Shorts:	12,700	14,612	15,455
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.5	49.3	56.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	-5.9	13.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,788 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	54.3	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	45.6	20.8
– Net Position:	-11,411	13,769	-2,358
– Gross Longs:	37,112	85,774	30,496
– Gross Shorts:	48,523	72,005	32,854
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.9	65.5	17.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	22.2	-37.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	53.4	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.7	21.4	15.8
– Net Position:	-53,397	65,258	-11,861
– Gross Longs:	68,623	109,110	20,392
– Gross Shorts:	122,020	43,852	32,253
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	67.6	23.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	10.4	-12.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,436 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -368 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.8	46.6	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.0	36.0	11.7
– Net Position:	-2,436	4,969	-2,533
– Gross Longs:	21,910	21,795	2,942
– Gross Shorts:	24,346	16,826	5,475
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.0	58.2	19.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	8.2	-2.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 82,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.8	47.4	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	84.6	2.2
– Net Position:	82,023	-85,227	3,204
– Gross Longs:	109,340	108,596	8,197
– Gross Shorts:	27,317	193,823	4,993
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.2	10.6	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.1	8.4	-6.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 23,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.8	23.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	83.9	4.8
– Net Position:	23,475	-25,216	1,741
– Gross Longs:	27,676	10,065	3,774
– Gross Shorts:	4,201	35,281	2,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.6	33.6	57.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	2.7	43.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	3.9	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.3	3.8	3.9
– Net Position:	-712	14	698
– Gross Longs:	11,981	602	1,299
– Gross Shorts:	12,693	588	601
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	56.9	28.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.8	-43.1	-5.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

19 Aug

Speculator Extremes: VIX, Cocoa, GBP, US Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 15th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The VIX speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 21.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -25,985 net contracts this week with a change of 18,419 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 97.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 5.1 this week. The speculator position registered 77,125 net contracts this week with a weekly change of -2,377 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The British Pound speculator level resides at a 91.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 0.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 50,988 net contracts this week with a change of 3,968 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is at a 89.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -8.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 82,023 net contracts this week with a change of -1,628 contracts in the speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Heating Oil speculator level sits at a 85.9 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.5 this week.

The speculator position was 31,677 net contracts this week with a change of 796 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 2.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,117,392 net contracts this week with a change of -8,266 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 4.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 2.1 this week. The speculator position was -445,497 net contracts this week with a change of -409 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 4.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,191,295 net contracts this week with a change of 39,012 contracts in the speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Palladium speculator level is at a 5.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.0 this week. The speculator position was -9,423 net contracts this week with a change of 769 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

Finally, the Corn speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 5.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.0 this week. The speculator position was -26,966 net contracts this week with a change of -52,693 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

19 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Palladium with a weekly rise of 769 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-21,849 contracts) with Copper (-15,641 contracts), Silver (-5,463 contracts), Platinum (-2,991 contracts) and Steel (-403 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-15-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	433,611	5	121,136	30	-141,930	69	20,794	32
Silver	138,215	30	7,861	29	-23,264	66	15,403	52
Copper	224,215	62	-25,698	9	20,665	89	5,033	50
Palladium	20,511	100	-9,423	6	9,722	96	-299	24
Platinum	84,557	100	1	16	-5,866	81	5,865	47

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (63 percent) and Gold (30 percent) lead the metals markets this week. comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent), Copper (9 percent) and Platinum (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (30.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (40.0 percent)
Silver (29.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (37.3 percent)
Copper (8.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.2 percent)
Platinum (15.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (22.5 percent)
Palladium (5.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (63.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (64.1 percent)

Platinum & Gold top the negative 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals markets have lower six-week trends scores.

Platinum (-19 percent), Gold (-18 percent, Copper (-15 percent) and Silver (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-18.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-3.9 percent)
Silver (-14.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-8.2 percent)
Copper (-14.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.2 percent)
Platinum (-18.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-21.2 percent)
Palladium (-11.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-20.6 percent)
Steel (-9.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-5.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 121,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -21,849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 142,985 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.8	26.8	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	59.5	5.4
– Net Position:	121,136	-141,930	20,794
– Gross Longs:	233,078	116,062	44,337
– Gross Shorts:	111,942	257,992	23,543
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.4	69.2	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	16.5	-2.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.7	34.2	20.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	51.0	9.1
– Net Position:	7,861	-23,264	15,403
– Gross Longs:	50,692	47,240	28,028
– Gross Shorts:	42,831	70,504	12,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	65.7	52.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	7.6	21.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.1	45.4	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	36.2	5.9
– Net Position:	-25,698	20,665	5,033
– Gross Longs:	67,401	101,827	18,180
– Gross Shorts:	93,099	81,162	13,147
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	88.7	50.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	11.6	18.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,992 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.3	28.5	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.3	35.4	4.6
– Net Position:	1	-5,866	5,865
– Gross Longs:	44,233	24,075	9,751
– Gross Shorts:	44,232	29,941	3,886
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.6	81.4	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	15.9	4.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -9,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	58.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.7	11.1	8.7
– Net Position:	-9,423	9,722	-299
– Gross Longs:	4,048	12,006	1,482
– Gross Shorts:	13,471	2,284	1,781
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.5	96.1	23.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	9.2	10.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	87.4	1.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	70.7	1.4
– Net Position:	-3,524	3,558	-34
– Gross Longs:	1,547	18,597	274
– Gross Shorts:	5,071	15,039	308
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.0	37.4	15.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	10.5	-24.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

19 Aug

Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (58,656 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (39,012 contracts), US Treasury Bonds (22,821 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12,562 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-50,877 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (-55,202 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-8,266 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-409 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-15-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	10,263,811	98	4,543	81	10,845	19	-15,388	79
FedFunds	1,532,025	49	-244,218	14	257,379	87	-13,161	65
2-Year	3,820,729	100	-1,117,392	2	991,941	95	125,451	100
Long T-Bond	1,370,326	100	-176,734	27	137,703	60	39,031	77
10-Year	4,857,422	98	-746,928	10	718,304	96	28,624	80
5-Year	5,768,718	100	-1,191,295	5	1,110,195	92	81,100	100

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (81 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (27 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (2 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (4 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (10 percent), Fed Funds (14.0 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
vs Fed Funds previous week (23.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (2.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (10.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (16.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (13.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (27.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (19.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (4.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (80.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (76.7 percent)

10-Year Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (3 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Fed Funds (-25 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-12 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-25.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-19.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (-4.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-7.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-17.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (3.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (10.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-12.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-27.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-16.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-23.3 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 4,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 58,656 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,113 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	59.8	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	59.7	0.4
– Net Position:	4,543	10,845	-15,388
– Gross Longs:	1,716,392	6,136,206	26,291
– Gross Shorts:	1,711,849	6,125,361	41,679
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.7	19.2	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	17.1	-4.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -244,218 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -50,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -193,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.3	78.3	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	61.5	2.9
– Net Position:	-244,218	257,379	-13,161
– Gross Longs:	35,930	1,200,176	31,331
– Gross Shorts:	280,148	942,797	44,492
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.0	86.8	65.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.1	25.5	-7.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,117,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,109,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	81.3	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.2	55.3	4.1
– Net Position:	-1,117,392	991,941	125,451
– Gross Longs:	380,265	3,105,026	282,436
– Gross Shorts:	1,497,657	2,113,085	156,985
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.3	94.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	1.9	15.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,191,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 39,012 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,230,307 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	83.3	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	64.0	5.7
– Net Position:	-1,191,295	1,110,195	81,100
– Gross Longs:	453,025	4,804,142	411,812
– Gross Shorts:	1,644,320	3,693,947	330,712
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.9	92.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	6.7	20.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -746,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -55,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	78.7	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	63.9	8.3
– Net Position:	-746,928	718,304	28,624
– Gross Longs:	495,210	3,822,746	430,877
– Gross Shorts:	1,242,138	3,104,442	402,253
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.0	95.7	79.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-0.2	-7.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -137,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,562 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,951 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	76.7	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	63.9	14.4
– Net Position:	-137,389	235,155	-97,766
– Gross Longs:	230,163	1,416,246	168,833
– Gross Shorts:	367,552	1,181,091	266,599
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.4	84.5	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	8.1	-24.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -176,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 22,821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -199,555 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	75.9	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	65.9	11.4
– Net Position:	-176,734	137,703	39,031
– Gross Longs:	94,337	1,040,666	195,617
– Gross Shorts:	271,071	902,963	156,586
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	59.7	76.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	11.0	4.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -445,497 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -445,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	79.9	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.0	55.2	8.2
– Net Position:	-445,497	401,243	44,254
– Gross Longs:	89,227	1,296,276	177,740
– Gross Shorts:	534,724	895,033	133,486
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.4	94.5	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	3.3	-11.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

19 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Corn, Soybeans & Coffee lead Speculator Bets lower

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil with a small gain of just 316 contracts for the week.

All the other markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-52,693 contracts) with Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybeans (-18,130 contracts), Soybean Meal (-17,204 contracts), Wheat (-9,081 contracts), Sugar (-7,790 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,324 contracts)Cocoa (-2,377 contracts), Live Cattle (-631 contracts) and Cotton (-426 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-15-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,702,766	27	242,108	26	-270,101	76	27,993	35
Gold	433,611	5	121,136	30	-141,930	69	20,794	32
Silver	138,215	30	7,861	29	-23,264	66	15,403	52
Copper	224,215	62	-25,698	9	20,665	89	5,033	50
Palladium	20,511	100	-9,423	6	9,722	96	-299	24
Platinum	84,557	100	1	16	-5,866	81	5,865	47
Natural Gas	1,168,181	43	-95,183	34	66,755	66	28,428	48
Brent	129,184	7	-43,200	27	41,206	76	1,994	36
Heating Oil	332,712	49	31,677	86	-58,181	14	26,504	90
Soybeans	638,785	14	65,333	15	-43,649	82	-21,684	49
Corn	1,287,019	13	-26,966	6	73,174	93	-46,208	51
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	929,306	55	191,433	59	-228,493	40	37,060	51
Wheat	374,839	51	-31,875	44	33,913	56	-2,038	65

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (97 percent) and Live Cattle (77 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (59 percent), Soybean Meal (51 percent) and Soybean Oil (47 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (6 percent) and Soybeans (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (21 percent) and the Coffee (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (5.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (14.4 percent)
Sugar (58.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (61.3 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (14.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (22.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (47.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (47.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (51.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (61.0 percent)
Live Cattle (76.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (20.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (25.3 percent)
Cotton (39.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (39.7 percent)
Cocoa (97.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (100.0 percent)
Wheat (44.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (50.6 percent)

Cotton & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (28 percent) and Wheat (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (5 percent), Cocoa (5 percent) and Lean Hogs (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-16 percent), Corn (-12 percent) and Soybeans (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-12.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-14.4 percent)
Sugar (-2.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-7.4 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (-10.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-7.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (5.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (9.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-3.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (4.3 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-12.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (1.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (9.2 percent)
Cotton (27.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (32.2 percent)
Cocoa (5.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.9 percent)
Wheat (9.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (17.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -26,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -52,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,727 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	49.6	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	43.9	13.7
– Net Position:	-26,966	73,174	-46,208
– Gross Longs:	277,537	637,897	129,791
– Gross Shorts:	304,503	564,723	175,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.8	93.1	51.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	11.7	1.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 191,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	46.2	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.9	70.8	5.2
– Net Position:	191,433	-228,493	37,060
– Gross Longs:	274,489	429,317	85,080
– Gross Shorts:	83,056	657,810	48,020
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.6	39.8	50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	0.4	8.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	47.0	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	51.4	3.9
– Net Position:	8,495	-8,052	-443
– Gross Longs:	42,190	84,606	6,662
– Gross Shorts:	33,695	92,658	7,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	67.9	7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	24.0	-19.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 65,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,463 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	54.6	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	61.4	10.1
– Net Position:	65,333	-43,649	-21,684
– Gross Longs:	138,099	348,481	43,056
– Gross Shorts:	72,766	392,130	64,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	81.7	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	9.8	-6.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 50,152 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	52.2	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	64.8	4.9
– Net Position:	50,152	-60,786	10,634
– Gross Longs:	97,149	251,109	34,124
– Gross Shorts:	46,997	311,895	23,490
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	51.1	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-6.6	12.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 89,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	40.1	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.0	62.1	5.5
– Net Position:	89,760	-108,122	18,362
– Gross Longs:	114,387	197,156	45,518
– Gross Shorts:	24,627	305,278	27,156
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	49.4	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	0.5	23.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 90,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,300 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.3	28.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	54.4	13.0
– Net Position:	90,669	-78,404	-12,265
– Gross Longs:	136,254	89,068	27,615
– Gross Shorts:	45,585	167,472	39,880
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	26.9	21.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	16.6	6.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	39.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	32.9	10.5
– Net Position:	-10,674	14,260	-3,586
– Gross Longs:	66,874	84,655	18,971
– Gross Shorts:	77,548	70,395	22,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	83.1	67.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-0.5	-5.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -426 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,144 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	43.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	67.1	3.2
– Net Position:	40,718	-50,546	9,828
– Gross Longs:	76,629	90,263	16,647
– Gross Shorts:	35,911	140,809	6,819
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	56.1	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.5	-30.9	55.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 77,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,502 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.6	28.4	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	57.8	2.5
– Net Position:	77,125	-80,698	3,573
– Gross Longs:	127,724	77,864	10,505
– Gross Shorts:	50,599	158,562	6,932
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.3	1.7	32.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-5.7	5.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,875 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	36.7	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.9	27.6	10.0
– Net Position:	-31,875	33,913	-2,038
– Gross Longs:	110,356	137,515	35,301
– Gross Shorts:	142,231	103,602	37,339
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.1	56.0	65.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-13.7	12.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

19 Aug

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & the VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was S&P500-Mini (41,162 contracts) with the VIX (18,419 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (16,048 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the DowJones-Mini (-7,252 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (-6,768 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-34 contracts) and MSCI EAFE-Mini (-587 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-15-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,220,084	22	-118,408	47	96,147	53	22,261	52
Nikkei 225	16,974	19	-700	65	-596	32	1,296	45
Nasdaq-Mini	267,495	42	5,169	80	-4,716	20	-453	53
DowJones-Mini	104,216	71	-3,221	65	2,879	40	342	46
VIX	395,240	70	-25,985	100	31,613	0	-5,628	67
Nikkei 225 Yen	51,699	39	5,860	52	14,729	51	-20,589	40

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (80 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (65 percent) and DowJones-Mini (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Russell-Mini (29 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (86.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (47.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (40.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (64.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (85.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (80.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (70.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (29.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (15.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (16.3 percent)

Nikkei 225 & DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (36 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (28 percent), the VIX (21 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (21.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (14.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (13.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (7.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (27.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (65.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-0.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-16.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-2.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-0.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (36.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-8.5 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -25,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,404 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.9	42.2	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	34.2	7.1
– Net Position:	-25,985	31,613	-5,628
– Gross Longs:	102,229	166,941	22,357
– Gross Shorts:	128,214	135,328	27,985
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	67.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.1	-18.8	-12.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -118,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 41,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	73.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	69.3	10.9
– Net Position:	-118,408	96,147	22,261
– Gross Longs:	258,924	1,634,627	263,621
– Gross Shorts:	377,332	1,538,480	241,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	53.2	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-15.1	7.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,252 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	51.7	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.0	49.0	13.5
– Net Position:	-3,221	2,879	342
– Gross Longs:	32,257	53,909	14,419
– Gross Shorts:	35,478	51,030	14,077
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	39.7	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.9	-23.0	7.3

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	56.7	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	58.4	15.4
– Net Position:	5,169	-4,716	-453
– Gross Longs:	69,459	151,549	40,682
– Gross Shorts:	64,290	156,265	41,135
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.2	19.6	52.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.5	2.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -71,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,768 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,511 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	83.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	71.0	4.3
– Net Position:	-71,279	67,827	3,452
– Gross Longs:	48,652	441,976	26,060
– Gross Shorts:	119,931	374,149	22,608
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.2	68.6	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	2.2	-0.6

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -700 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -34 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	61.8	25.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	65.3	17.4
– Net Position:	-700	-596	1,296
– Gross Longs:	2,242	10,489	4,243
– Gross Shorts:	2,942	11,085	2,947
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	32.3	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.8	-32.0	-2.7

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,909 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	89.1	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	84.9	1.2
– Net Position:	-23,496	16,838	6,658
– Gross Longs:	29,476	356,117	11,619
– Gross Shorts:	52,972	339,279	4,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	79.4	50.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	8.6	23.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

18 Aug

All Eyes Are on Lithium

Source: Barry Dawes (8/15/23)

Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities takes a look at current movements in the gold and lithium market.

Diggers and Dealers 2023

Attendance down in 2022 but still an important showcase
Big improvements coming for the gold sector market leaders
Excellent progress by many juniors

Gold

Still heading to US$2000 and beyond
Seasonal influences strong
Building quietly
May be more short-term softness but technicals positive
Conviction elusive

US$ Still Strong

U.S. is very attractive investment destination!
Downtrend broken!
Yen makes new 2023 low
Swiss Franc about to crack

Bond Market

U.S, bond yields peaking
But Japan, Germany, and UK yields to rise
Is this being too complicating?

Japanese bonds have had a disaster!

A 60% increase in yield on a long-dated bond to 0.58% would have cut the price by >50%!

Yields to 0.8% and then 1.2% would be catastrophic. Junk status for these and the Yen.

UK

Yields are likely to break higher.

It could be a big move, but the uptrend is broken.

Eurozone

Yields definitely rise here.

Yield rises on long-dated low-coupon bonds are devastating.

Gold

Gold has given us another month of misery after what we thought was going to be a seasonal low around the end of June.

The US$ is strengthening again as the world embraces the ending of the period of control by the criminal mafia in the U.S. The U.S. will become the recipient of massive investment capital inflows as these criminals are removed, and the rule of constitutional law is regained.

The electoral fraud that we’ve talked about over the last few years is now coming to the fore in a crescendo. If you haven’t watched this interview with Dr. Jan Halper-Hayes, you should do so now.

Some interesting background:

She was on the Trump Transition Team in 2016/17 and sits on a U.S. Dept Defence panel, so she has standing.

Note at 10:02, Dr. Halper talks about the repatriation of a large amount of gold stolen from the U.S. Treasury and held by the Vatican.

650 plane loads were involved.

This is the first formal announcement of this action I have seen and follows several hints over the past few years.

The tonnages are large (> several thousand tonnes!), so the US$ may be, in fact, already gold backed.

You will recall videos of Trump looking very happy and the Pope looking very angry during a visit to the Vatican in 2017.

Video

The world is recognizing this, and funds are flowing into the US$.

The world is also seeing the junk status of other currencies like the Yen and the Euro, and even the Swiss franc, and is leaving.

Note the weakness in the bond markets in these countries.

However, it seems the commentators are thinking about just the opposite.

Heed the markets!

The gold-backed BRICs issue will be reviewed later this week.

What can we say about gold now?

It is friendless, and the sentiment is awful.

Gold company booths at Diggers were almost ignored last week.

So here is gold’s action over the past month.

Heading lower, but it’s wedging!

This wedge is playing out here and looks constructive with horizontal support.

This is an interesting uptrend here with some good horizontal support.

And the parabola for US$ gold is still there.

Gold in Yen is still rising.

Gold in Euros is holding there too.

Gold Stocks

Leading gold stocks building steadily
Horizontal support is good
Uptrends are wonky but still OK

Still hanging in there.

But sentiment has collapsed again.

ASX Gold Stocks

Last week I managed to catch up with about 40 ASX gold companies at Diggers.

The big stocks are looking very strong.

I also, courtesy of NST (thank you, Stu, Bec, and Sophie), visited the KCGM Super Pit and was astounded by the progress and the direction of this operation.

No wonder NST was so keen to get control of this operation.

I will do some work on this later in the week, but clearly, NST is heading for something brilliant here. It will be >1mozpa, above their conservative 900koz pa, from this expansion from 13mtpa to 27mt, which is underpinned by the existing 120mt of 0.7g/t low-grade stockpiles by 2029. A$1.5bn being well spent!

Jundee and Pogo are also doing very well.

EVN has now turned the corner and is looking much better at Red Lake, and Mungari is now being expanded.

RRL, GOR, RMS, PNR, WGX also are strong.

GMD looks as though it will now start really growing.

DEG just gets better every quarter.

BGL is just out of this world!

ASX Gold Index

Pulled back to horizontal support
Completing RHS
Small-cap developers bottoming
Small-caps developers about to outperform XGD

ASX gold stocks rallied nicely in June but have pulled back to important horizontal support around 6600.

The index is still doing work after testing that 7700 neckline.

Still looking quite constructive despite being still about 30% below the 2020 high.

The index broke a downtrend line this morning and is just backtesting.

There is a wedge here as well.

The underlying corporate fundamentals are very strong and are turning up after a pause.

We can’t have a bear market if output and earnings are rising.

The small gold developers, however, were almost ignored at Diggers last week.

Lithium and rare earths were the flavor of the month.

But do watch this mega wedge going back to 2020.

These small-cap developers are ready to break out.

And they are beginning to break out vs. the Gold Index.

Stocks to watch:-

More is coming later this week.

Timing is everything.

Heed the markets, not the commentators.

Important Disclosures:

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Metals Opinions

18 Aug

Week Ahead: Jackson Hole To Drive Sentiment

By ForexTime

Get ready, folks!

It’s that time of year again with the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium around the corner…

This is a major event where central bankers and financial heavyweights come together to tackle pressing economic issues that impact the entire world. When considering how such a gathering could provide investors with critical insights into the Fed’s stance on rates, financial markets are in for a rollercoaster ride.

But before we unpack the key details of Jackson Hole, let’s take a quick look at the economic data releases and events scheduled for the upcoming week:

Monday, 21 August

CNH: China loan prime rates
NZD: New Zealand trade

Tuesday, 22 August

USD: US existing home sales

Wednesday, 23 August

CAD: Canada retail sales
EUR: Eurozone/Germany S&P Global PMI, Eurozone consumer confidence
GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI
USD: US new home sales, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

Thursday, 24 August

Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Wyoming
USD: US initial jobless claims

Friday, 25 August

JPY: Tokyo CPI
EUR: Germany IFO business climate, GDP
USD: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment
Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speech at Jackson Hole

Mark your calendars – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, August 25th is the main event everyone’s talking about.

As we dive deeper into the second half of 2023, the burning question on everyone’s mind is whether the Fed will raise interest rates again before the year is out. The July Fed minutes show that policymakers are still seeing significant risks to inflation, which might lead to more rate hikes in the future. Adding fuel to the fire, the recent US retail sales figures surpassed expectations, further supporting the case for higher rates.

But here’s the thing – traders are currently pricing in only an 11% probability of a 25-basis point hike at September’s FOMC meeting, with that number rising to 38% in November. So, the uncertainty is real.

The Jackson Hole event could have a lasting impact on global markets, especially on Friday when Powell takes the stage. Powell is expected to re-affirm the data-dependent approach and emphasize the need to keep rates higher for a longer period to tame inflation. However, investors will be listening closely to his overall tone, as it has the power to influence Fed hike expectations.

There are a handful of assets that could be significantly influenced by Powell’s speech, but two have caught our attention:

Gold

Gold has had a tough August so far, shedding nearly 4% and closing below the 200-day SMA for the first time since December 2022! Bears are clearly in the building and could dominate the scene further given the right fundamentals forces.

Gold prices could sink towards $1870 if Powell strikes a firmly hawkish tone during his speech, fuelling bets around US rates remaining higher for longer.
However, if Powell conveys a more cautious and dovish stance, we could see a rebound in gold that pushes prices back above the 200-day SMA, reaching towards $1920.

SPX500_m

The SPX500_m has taken a real beating over the last few days with prices back below the 50-day SMA for the first time since March 2023.

Bears are capitalising on China’s woes and fears surrounding a hawkish Federal Reserve. The SPX500_m looks to be in the early stages of a downtrend on the daily charts, with the potential for further losses if key support is breached.

The SPX500_m could break below the 100-day SMA if Powell strikes a firmly hawkish tone during his speech, boosting bets for higher US interest rates.
If Powell strikes a cautious and marginally dovish tone, this could push prices back towards the 50-day SMA at 4463 and beyond.

Article by ForexTime

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It’s been an angsty August so far for the S&P 500.

This week, the SPX500_m (which tracks the underlying S&P 500) is at the mercy of two of the largest market themes of 2023 coming head-to-head:

1) AI-mania: just hype? or real earnings booster?

Nvidia is due to release its latest quarterly results after US markets close on Wednesday, August 23rd.

Broadly speaking, if Nvidia can convince markets that the AI-hype is truly translating into a meaningful earnings boost, that could help the SPX500_m pare recent losses.

2) US interest rates – higher for longer?

The highlight is, of course, the speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, on Friday, August 25th.

“How long will the Fed maintain its benchmark rates at its peak, before considering a rate cut?”

How did markets react to Powell’s speech at 2022’s Jackson Hole event?

As for Chair Powell’s speech ahead of this coming weekend, here are some potential scenarios that may affect the SPX500_m:

From a technical perspective …

Here are some key levels to look out for on the SPX500_m daily chart:

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & British Pound

British Pound Sterling Speculator Bets rebound this week

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

Bitcoin & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

VIX

Cocoa Futures

British Pound

Mexican Peso

Heating Oil

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

2-Year Bond

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

5-Year Bond

Palladium

Corn

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Copper

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

Platinum & Gold top the negative 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Weekly Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

10-Year Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend