AI and new standards promise to make scientific data more useful by making it reusable and accessible

By Bradley Wade Bishop, University of Tennessee 

Every time a scientist runs an experiment, or a social scientist does a survey, or a humanities scholar analyzes a text, they generate data. Science runs on data – without it, we wouldn’t have the James Webb Space Telescope’s stunning images, disease-preventing vaccines or an evolutionary tree that traces the lineages of all life.

This scholarship generates an unimaginable amount of data – so how do researchers keep track of it? And how do they make sure that it’s accessible for use by both humans and machines?

To improve and advance science, scientists need to be able to reproduce others’ data or combine data from multiple sources to learn something new.

Accessible and usable data can help scientists reproduce prior results. Doing so is an important part of the scientific process, as this TED-Ed video explains.

Any kind of sharing requires management. If your neighbor needs to borrow a tool or an ingredient, you have to know whether you have it and where you keep it. Research data might be on a graduate student’s laptop, buried in a professor’s USB collection or saved more permanently within an online data repository.

I’m an information scientist who studies other scientists. More precisely, I study how scientists think about research data and the ways that they interact with their own data and data from others. I also teach students how to manage their own or others’ data in ways that advance knowledge.

Research data management

Research data management is an area of scholarship that focuses on data discovery and reuse. As a field, it encompasses research data services, resources and cyberinfrastructure. For example, one type of infrastructure, the data repository, gives researchers a place to deposit their data for long-term storage so that others can find it. In short, research data management encompasses the data’s life cycle from cradle to grave to reincarnation in the next study.

Proper research data management also allows scientists to use the data already out there rather than recollecting data that already exists, which saves time and resources.

With increasing science politicization, many national and international science organizations have upped their standards for accountability and transparency. Federal agencies and other major research funders like the National Institutes of Health now prioritize research data management and require researchers to have a data management plan before they can receive any funds.

Scientists and data managers can work together to redesign the systems scientists use to make data discovery and preservation easier. In particular, integrating AI can make this data more accessible and reusable.

Artificially intelligent data management

Many of these new standards for research data management also stem from an increased use of AI, including machine learning, across data-driven fields. AI makes it highly desirable for any data to be machine-actionable – that is, usable by machines without human intervention. Now, scholars can consider machines not only as tools but also as potential autonomous data reusers and collaborators.

The key to machine-actionable data is metadata. Metadata are the descriptions scientists set for their data and may include elements such as creator, date, coverage and subject. Minimal metadata is minimally useful, but correct and complete standardized metadata makes data more useful for both people and machines.

It takes a cadre of research data managers and librarians to make machine-actionable data a reality. These information professionals work to facilitate communication between scientists and systems by ensuring the quality, completeness and consistency of shared data.

The FAIR data principles, created by a group of researchers called FORCE11 in 2016 and used across the world, provide guidance on how to enable data reuse by machines and humans. FAIR data is findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable – meaning it has robust and complete metadata.

In the past, I’ve studied how scientists discover and reuse data. I found that scientists tend to use mental shortcuts when they’re looking for data – for example, they may go back to familiar and trusted sources or search for certain key terms they’ve used before. Ideally, my team could build this decision-making process of experts and remove as many biases as possible to improve AI. The automation of these mental shortcuts should reduce the time-consuming chore of locating the right data.

Data management plans

But there’s still one piece of research data management that AI can’t take over. Data management plans describe the what, where, when, why and who of managing research data. Scientists fill them out, and they outline the roles and activities for managing research data during and long after research ends. They answer questions like, “Who is responsible for long-term preservation,” “Where will the data live,” “How do I keep my data secure,” and “Who pays for all of that?”

Grant proposals for nearly all funding agencies across countries now require data management plans. These plans signal to scientists that their data is valuable and important enough to the community to share. Also, the plans help funding agencies keep tabs on the research and investigate any potential misconduct. But most importantly, they help scientists make sure their data stays accessible for many years.

Making all research data as FAIR and open as possible will improve the scientific process. And having access to more data opens up the possibility for more informed discussions on how to promote economic development, improve the stewardship of natural resources, enhance public health, and how to responsibly and ethically develop technologies that will improve lives. All intelligence, artificial or otherwise, will benefit from better organization, access and use of research data.The Conversation

About the Author:

Bradley Wade Bishop, Professor of Information Sciences, University of Tennessee

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, MATIC). Overview for 23.08.2023

By RoboForex.com

The BTC exchange rate looks weak on Wednesday, hovering around 26,015 USD.

The cryptocurrency sector has suffered noticeably after the crash triggered by the Bitcoin Magazine publication. The BTC decline also pulled down key altcoins. Currently, the sector is still impacted by the bearish seasonal factor, and its transition to a bullish trend in early September could be delayed.

An important support for the BTC is the 25,150 USD mark, with the next one at 23,350 USD. There are still no buyers on the platform.

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation remains around 1.05 trillion USD. The share of BTC has dropped to 48.4%, while the share of ETH decreased to 18.8%.

NFTs from the Bored Ape Yacht Club collection sold at a loss

A trader who bought NTF tokens from the Bored Ape Yacht Club collection 11 months ago sold them with a loss of 80%. The NFTs were bought for 777 ETH, representing the most expensive NFT token in this collection. The sale transaction took place on the X2Y2 platform, and the amount totalled 153 ETH.

MATIC in the risk zone

The value of the Polygon project’s MATIC token has fallen to its lowest level since July 2022. Due to the pressure from US regulators and the increasing interest in the L2 networks like Base and Optimism, the demand for Polygon’s services declined. This simultaneously affected the MATIC price dynamics.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Canada is on the verge of a housing bubble. US indices are under renewed pressure ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones (US30) index decreased by 0.51%, while the S&P500 (US500) index lost 0.28%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.06% yesterday. Yesterday’s US economic news was mixed for stocks after July’s existing home sales fell more than expected to a 6-month low. Still, the August manufacturing report from the FRB Richmond unexpectedly rose to a 7-month high. The 3-day symposium of the US central bank in Jackson Hole starts as early as tomorrow, where the main focus of investors is directed towards the speeches of US Fed chief Jerome Powell on Friday. Markets rate the odds of a 25bp rate hike at the September 20th FOMC meeting at 16% and a 25bp hike at the First of November FOMC meeting at 49%.

According to economists, Canada is likely sitting on the biggest housing bubble of all time. Canadians’ level of debt relative to their income puts many in a precarious position if mortgage rates continue to rise, which is likely. The worst thing for a housing bubble is when a credit bubble forms underneath it, as it did in the United States in 2008.

Equity markets in Europe traded higher yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 0.66%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) gained 0.59% on Tuesday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.59%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.18%. French retail sales in July fell by 2.1% y/y, marking the fourteenth consecutive decline in sales. Today, the Eurozone is expected to publish data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. Analysts expect negative data, which will put additional pressure on the ECB.

Oil prices are falling for the second day in a row, with the price of oil in the US stopping below the critical support of $80 per barrel amid concerns about the economic slowdown in China and the possibility of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The excitement over Saudi Arabia and Russia cutting oil production has receded into the background but is helping the price not to fall too deeply.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.92% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.68%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.95% on Tuesday, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day positive 0.09%. Concerns about China persisted after the People’s Bank disappointed markets with a smaller-than-expected cut in interest rates this week. Additional stimulus measures promised by the government earlier were not announced, which also had a negative impact on Chinese equities.

In New Zealand, total retail sales in June declined by 1% from March. This is the third consecutive quarterly decline, following a 1.6% decline in March and 1.1% in December. Seasonally adjusted retail sales totaled 25 bln. The decline in retail sales indicates that consumers are spending less money in stores and saving more. This usually occurs in recessionary and pre-recessionary scenarios.

In Japan, the business activity level in the manufacturing sector rose from 49.6 to 49.7. The service sector increased from 53.8 to 54.3. Core inflation, which the Bank of Japan monitors, rewrote the highs and amounted to a modest by global standards, but still a record for Japan at 3.3%. According to analysts, the Bank of Japan still controls the situation. Still, when you print yen with one hand and keep the rates around zero, and with the other hand, you try to prevent devaluation – sooner or later, significant problems may arise.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,387.55 −12.22 (−0.28%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,288.83 −174.86 (−0.51%)

DAX (DE40)  15,705.62 +102.34 (+0.66%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,270.76 +12.94 (+0.18%)

USD Index  103.59 +0.29 (+0.28%)

Important events for today:
  • – New Zealand Retail Sales (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

GBPUSD drops after poor UK PMIs

By ForexTime 

  • GBPUSD sinks after UK PMIs came in below expectations
  • Bank of England rate hikes are taking toll on UK economy
  • Bloomberg model: GBPUSD likely to trade between 1.2545 – 1.2828 into next week
  • Friday’s speech by Fed Chair Powell may herald more volatility for GBPUSD

The Pound is the worst-performing G10 currency against the dollar today.

The UK’s preliminary PMIs (purchasing manager index) for August showed contracting conditions across both manufacturing and services in the private sector.

With the respective PMIs registering readings below the 50 threshold that differentiates contraction (PMI below 50) and expansion (PMI above 50) …

It’s clear that the Bank of England’s aggressive rate hikes are taking a toll on the UK economy.

Today’s PMI numbers have also prompted markets to dial down bets for a further 75-basis points in rate hikes out of the Bank of England which had been fully priced in prior to today’s PMI releases.

At the time of writing, markets are only pricing in a 54% chance that the BOE can raise its benchmark rate by a further 75bps between now and Q1 2024.

Such soured sentiment surrounding the UK economy and the BOE’s future policy moves has clearly weighed on GBPUSD, forcing cable to unwind some of its recent gains.

 

GBP still among best G10 performers YTD

Though for proper context, Sterling continues to compete with the Swiss Franc for the title of best-performing G10 currency against the US dollar on a year-to-date basis.

The CHF and GBP can still boast of a 5% climb respectively against the greenback so far in 2023.

 

From a technical perspective:

GBPUSD bulls have been thwarted by the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) of late. The 38.2% Fibonacci level from this FX pair’s June 2021 – September 2022 plummet is also further exerting resistance.

To the downside, the 1.26200 region has been offering support for GBPUSD (nicknamed “cable”) since end-June, with the 100-day SMA also potentially offering further support nearby.

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 74% chance that GBPUSD will trade within the 1.2545 – 1.2828 range over the next one week.

 

Astute traders would be aware that this time period also includes Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s highly-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium this Friday, as well as the UK’s August consumer confidence data.

Of those two events, Chair Powell’s comments harbours the much greater potential to sway the US dollar, and by extension, GBPUSD as well as the rest of the FX world before the weekend.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Nvidia hype is dangerous, but AI should be in your investment mix

By George Prior

The hype surrounding chipmaker Nvidia’s earnings is dangerous, but all investors should consider Artificial Intelligence (AI) exposure, affirms the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The analysis from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes as investors worldwide await the California-based semiconductor designer Nvidia’s results on Wednesday – which come after the closing bell – to see how it performs against sky high Wall Street expectations after an impressive first quarter.

He comments: “Nvidia’s shares have jumped almost 210% this year on the frenzy around its uses within AI.

“Clearly, this is huge and, as such, all eyes will be on the earnings and also the future guidance from the company after the bell on Wednesday.

“If earnings are again stellar and guidance robust, it will help reignite the tech rally which has stalled in recent weeks. If they don’t, we expect short-term market volatility.”

The deVere CEO warns, however, that as the volume is getting louder, and the frenzy is reaching fever pitch regarding Nvidia and other so-called ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Tesla and Alphabet), the heat needs to be taken down a gear.

“This level of hype is dangerous as it could lead investors to assume that these stocks are a silver bullet to build long-term wealth – and they are not, at least not on their own,” he warns.

“While I believe that exposure to these mega-cap tech stocks should be part of almost every investor’s portfolio, as they have robust fundamentals and are future-focused, especially in AI, they should not be exclusive.”

“These stocks are incredibly important, of course, but they’re not a panacea. I fear some investors will get burned unless some of the frenzy is turned down.”

“Diversification is, as ever, investors’ best tool for long-term financial success. As a strategy, it has been proven to reduce risk, smooth-out volatility, exploit differing market conditions, maximise long-term returns and protect against unforeseen external events.”

That said, the deVere CEO remains bullish on AI-orientated investments as part of the mix.

“The buzz surrounding AI companies is grounded in tangible technological advancements and their potential to reshape industries across the board.

“The transformative capabilities of AI, coupled with its cross-industry disruption, data-driven nature, and rapid innovation, make it a compelling investment opportunity.

“As the AI market continues to expand and evolve, investors who recognise its potential are well poised to reap the rewards of this exciting technological revolution.

“Including AI exposure in investment portfolios isn’t just a trend – it’s a strategic move that aligns with the future of innovation and economic growth. Just do it judiciously.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Social media algorithms warp how people learn from each other, research shows

By William Brady, Northwestern University 

People’s daily interactions with online algorithms affect how they learn from others, with negative consequences including social misperceptions, conflict and the spread of misinformation, my colleagues and I have found.

People are increasingly interacting with others in social media environments where algorithms control the flow of social information they see. Algorithms determine in part which messages, which people and which ideas social media users see.

On social media platforms, algorithms are mainly designed to amplify information that sustains engagement, meaning they keep people clicking on content and coming back to the platforms. I’m a social psychologist, and my colleagues and I have found evidence suggesting that a side effect of this design is that algorithms amplify information people are strongly biased to learn from. We call this information “PRIME,” for prestigious, in-group, moral and emotional information.

In our evolutionary past, biases to learn from PRIME information were very advantageous: Learning from prestigious individuals is efficient because these people are successful and their behavior can be copied. Paying attention to people who violate moral norms is important because sanctioning them helps the community maintain cooperation.

But what happens when PRIME information becomes amplified by algorithms and some people exploit algorithm amplification to promote themselves? Prestige becomes a poor signal of success because people can fake prestige on social media. Newsfeeds become oversaturated with negative and moral information so that there is conflict rather than cooperation.

The interaction of human psychology and algorithm amplification leads to dysfunction because social learning supports cooperation and problem-solving, but social media algorithms are designed to increase engagement. We call this mismatch functional misalignment.

Why it matters

One of the key outcomes of functional misalignment in algorithm-mediated social learning is that people start to form incorrect perceptions of their social world. For example, recent research suggests that when algorithms selectively amplify more extreme political views, people begin to think that their political in-group and out-group are more sharply divided than they really are. Such “false polarization” might be an important source of greater political conflict.

Social media algorithms amplify extreme political views.

Functional misalignment can also lead to greater spread of misinformation. A recent study suggests that people who are spreading political misinformation leverage moral and emotional information – for example, posts that provoke moral outrage – in order to get people to share it more. When algorithms amplify moral and emotional information, misinformation gets included in the amplification.

What other research is being done

In general, research on this topic is in its infancy, but there are new studies emerging that examine key components of algorithm-mediated social learning. Some studies have demonstrated that social media algorithms clearly amplify PRIME information.

Whether this amplification leads to offline polarization is hotly contested at the moment. A recent experiment found evidence that Meta’s newsfeed increases polarization, but another experiment that involved a collaboration with Meta found no evidence of polarization increasing due to exposure to their algorithmic Facebook newsfeed.

More research is needed to fully understand the outcomes that emerge when humans and algorithms interact in feedback loops of social learning. Social media companies have most of the needed data, and I believe that they should give academic researchers access to it while also balancing ethical concerns such as privacy.

What’s next

A key question is what can be done to make algorithms foster accurate human social learning rather than exploit social learning biases. My research team is working on new algorithm designs that increase engagement while also penalizing PRIME information. We argue that this might maintain user activity that social media platforms seek, but also make people’s social perceptions more accurate.

About the Author:

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.The Conversation

William Brady, Assistant Professor of Management and Organizations, Northwestern University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

A carbon tax on investment income could be more fair and make it less profitable to pollute – a new analysis shows why

By Jared Starr, UMass Amherst 

About 10 years ago, a very thick book written by a French economist became a surprising bestseller. It was called “Capital in the 21st Century.” In it, Thomas Piketty traces the history of income and wealth inequality over the past couple of hundred years.

The book’s insights struck a chord with people who felt a growing sense of economic inequality but didn’t have the data to back it up. I was one of them. It made me wonder, how much carbon pollution is being generated to create wealth for a small group of extremely rich households? Two kids, 10 years and a Ph.D. later, I finally have some answers.

In a new study, colleagues and I investigated U.S. households’ personal responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2019. We previously studied emissions tied to consumption – the stuff people buy. This time, we looked at emissions used in generating people’s incomes, including investment income.

If you’ve ever thought about how oil company CEOs and shareholders get rich at the expense of the climate, then you’ve been thinking in an “income-responsibility” way.

While it may seem intuitive that those getting rich from fossil fuels bear responsibility for the emissions, very little research has been done to quantify this. Recent efforts have started to look at emissions related to household wages in France, global consumption and investments of different income groups and billionaires’ investments. But no one has analyzed households across a whole country based on the emissions used to generate their full range of income, including wages, investments and retirement income, until now.

We linked a global data set of financial transactions and emissions to microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly labor force survey, which includes respondents’ job, demographics and income from 35 categories, including wages and investments. People’s wages we connected to the emission intensity of the industries that employ them, and we based the emissions intensity of investment income on a portfolio that mirrors the overall economy.

The results of our analysis were eye-opening, and they could have profound implications for producing more effective and fair climate policies in the future.

A view from the top 1%

Both our consumption- and income-based approaches reveal that the highest-earning households are responsible for much more than an equitable share of carbon emissions. What’s more surprising is how different the level of responsibility is depending on whether you look at consumption or income.

In the income-based approach, the share of national emissions coming from the top 1% of households is 15% to 17% of national emissions. That’s about 2.5 times higher than their consumer-related emissions, which is about 6%.

In the bottom 50% of households, however, the trend is the exact opposite: Their share of consumption-based national emissions is 31%, about two times larger than their income-based emissions of 14%.

Why is that?

A couple things are going on here. First, the lowest earning 50% of U.S. households spend all that they earn, and often more via social assistance or debt. The top income groups, on the other hand, are able to save and reinvest more of their income.

Second, while high-income households have very high overall spending and emissions, the carbon intensity – tons of carbon dioxide emitted per dollar – of their purchases is actually lower than that of low-income households. This is because low-income households spend a large share of their income on carbon-intensive basic necessities, like home heating and transportation. High-income households spend more of their income on less-carbon-intensive services, like financial services or higher education.

Implications for a carbon tax

Our detailed comparison could help change how governments think about carbon taxes.

Typically, a carbon tax is applied to fossil fuels when they enter the economy. Coal, oil and gas producers then pass this tax on to consumers. More than two dozen countries have a carbon tax, and U.S. policymakers have proposed adding one in recent years. The idea is that raising the price of these products by taxing them will get consumers to shift to cheaper and presumably less carbon-intensive alternatives.

But our studies show that this kind of tax would disproportionately fall on poorer Americans. Even if a universal dividend check was adopted, consumer-facing carbon taxes have no impact on saved income. Generating that income likely contributed to greenhouse gas emissions, but as long as the money is used to buy stocks rather than consumables, it is excluded from carbon taxes. So, this kind of carbon tax disproportionately affects people whose income goes primarily toward consumption.

A profit-focused carbon tax

What if, instead of focusing on consumption, carbon taxes addressed greenhouse gases as an outcome of profit generation?

The vast majority of American corporations operate under the principle of “shareholder primacy,” where they see a fiduciary duty to maximize profit for their investors. Products – and the greenhouse gases used to make them – are not created for the benefit of the consumer, but because the sale of those products will benefit the shareholders.

If carbon taxes were focused on shareholder income linked to greenhouse gas emissions rather than consumption, they could target those receiving the most economic benefits resulting from these emissions.

The impact

A couple of interesting things might result, particularly if the tax was set based on the carbon intensity of the company.

Corporate executives and boards would have incentive to reduce emissions to lower taxes for shareholders. Shareholders would have incentive, out of self-interest, to pressure companies to do so.

Investors would also have incentive to shift their portfolios to less-polluting companies to avoid the tax. Pension and private wealth fund managers would have incentive to divest from carbon-polluting investments out of a fiduciary duty to their clients. To keep the tax focused on large shareholders, I could see retirement accounts being excluded from the tax, or a minimum asset threshold before the tax applies.

Jared Starr explains the new study’s findings and the implications.

Revenue generated from the carbon tax could help fund adaptation and the transition to clean energy.

Instead of putting the responsibility for cutting emissions on consumers, maybe policies should more directly tie that responsibility to corporate executives, board members and investors who have the most knowledge and power over their industries. Based on our analysis of the consumption and income benefits produced by greenhouse gas emissions, I believe a shareholder-based carbon tax is worth exploring.The Conversation

About the Author:

Jared Starr, Sustainability Scientist, UMass Amherst

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Warren Buffett is investing in real estate. The New Zealand dollar has fallen for ten days in a row

By JustMarkets

As of Monday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.19%, while the S&P500 Index (US500) added 0.69%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.56% yesterday. But analysts still believe that the dollar is poised for further gains, especially as government bond yields rose following positive US economic data. Markets expect the Fed to have to keep rates “higher for longer” in response to robust US data.

Technology stocks rose thanks to a more than 6% rise in NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) ahead of the chipmaker’s quarterly results due on Wednesday. Nvidia is riding a wave of optimism about artificial intelligence. Shares of Tesla Inc (TSLA) rose more than 6% as investors bought into the electric car maker’s recent stock slump amid a new positive outlook from Wall Street for TSLA. Baird listed Tesla as a “best idea,” noting several favorable factors, including the launch of Cybertruck, wider adoption of self-driving software, and continued growth in the energy business, that could overshadow concerns about margin erosion from recent price declines.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway fund invested in housing, putting $814 million into the shares of 3 homebuilders: Lennar, NVR, and DR Horton. A small bet in the context of Berkshire’s roughly $350 billion equity portfolio, but it speaks to Buffett’s optimism about the housing market in the US, despite its unaffordability today when mortgage rates are near multi-year highs.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 0.19%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.47% on Monday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.05%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.06%. In its monthly report, Germany’s Bundesbank said, “The German economy remains in a phase of weakness. Output will likely remain largely unchanged in the third quarter of 2023.” In Germany, the PPI (which displays the inflation rate between factories and plants and is a leading indicator of consumer inflation) fell by 6.0% annually, the sharpest drop in 13 years. The main reason for the year-over-year decline in producer prices was lower energy prices, as well as lower prices for intermediate goods.

Crude oil and gasoline prices stopped rising on Monday and closed moderately lower. Economic malaise in China, the world’s second-largest crude oil consumer, threatens to curb its energy demand and has a bearish effect on prices. On the other hand, oil’s fall is limited by a shortage of global crude oil inventories.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.37% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.36%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.82% on Monday, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day negative by 0.46%.

On Monday, the Nikkei stock index rally reduced demand for the Japanese yen as a safe haven. In addition, the yen is under pressure as data from Bloomberg shows that the Bank of Japan is buying Japanese bonds at a record pace this year as it tries to keep long-term bond yields low as part of its yield curve control program. An update from JP Morgan shows analysts’ interest in the 150 yen per dollar mark as a level that could trigger currency intervention.

The New Zealand dollar is on the verge of the longest losing streak in its history. On Monday, the currency fell for the 10th consecutive day. Such a drop has yet to occur seen since March 2020. If the NZD declines further today, it will be the longest drop in the currency’s history.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,399.77 +30.06 (+0.69%)

Dow Jones (US30) 15,603.28 +29.02 (+0.19%)

DAX (DE40)  15,603.28 +29.02 (+0.19%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,257.82 −4.61 (−0.063%)

USD Index  103.35 −0.03 (−0.03%)

Important events for today:
  • – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 21:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

US stocks, gold extend recovery

By ForexTime

  • SPX500_m returns above 4,400
  • Big Tech rebound helps S&P 500 pare biggest weekly drop since March
  • Gold resurfaces above $1900 after hitting 5-month low
  • Higher Treasury yields should be headwind for stocks, gold
  • Look out for Nvidia earnings, Powell’s speech this week

 

US stock futures are building on Monday’s gains, after a strong rebound in technology stocks.

The SPX500_m has broken past the psychologically-important 4,400 mark, making an about-turn after halting a four-day drop.

This rebound comes after global stocks had their biggest weekly drop since March last week.

The “magnificent seven” of megacap tech stocks – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla – lost more than $900 billion in value over three consecutive weeks of falls. That was their worst run of combined market cap decline this year.

But yesterday saw Tesla jump over 7% while Nvidia rose 8.5% ahead of its results after the closing bell on Wednesday which will be a key focus.

 

Oversold gold finds a bid

Gold dipped $1885 to post a five-month low yesterday which came after four straight weeks of losses, something not seen since February.

Rampant Treasury yields are not a good sign for bullion as it is a non-interest-bearing asset.

Indeed, the 10-year “real” yield has hit 2% for the first time since March 2009. However, prices have been oversold on momentum indicators and buyers have stepped in recently as we are now seeing a third day of gains this morning.

The yellow metal still currently trades below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), though has resurfaced above the psychologically-important $1900 level for the time being.

 

We also note that hedge funds cut their gold longs to a six-month low in the week to August 15 while ETF holdings have seen 12 straight weeks of outflows.

 

Of course, investors and traders will be wondering whether or not this rebound has legs.

Markets have half an eye on Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday at Jackson Hole while trying to navigate surging borrowing costs.

Higher rates for longer should be a headwind for stocks and also gold, potentially exerting an ultimate cap on how high these assets can climb.

But for now, markets are putting such thoughts aside, with US stocks and gold attempting to enter the tail-end of August on a less dour note.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

China has cut its benchmark interest rate. Oil may come under pressure in the coming weeks

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) index increased by 0.07% (-2.19% for the week), while the S&P 500 (US500) index was down by 0.02% (-1.98% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed Friday by negative 0.20% (-2.27% for the week). August is a seasonally weak month for stock indices, and this time is no exception. This is partly due to the vacation period in the banking sector. Partly it is because the latest economic data in the US showed that the economy is not in danger of recession in the near future. As a result, rising government bond yields have lifted the dollar index, causing stock indices to decline.

The Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled to begin on Thursday of this week. Various academics, bank chiefs, and central bank governors gather to discuss monetary policy and financial markets. The policymakers will give their interviews at the end of the conference. These interviews could cause significant volatility as they could foreshadow future monetary policy dynamics. In particular, investors will be waiting for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to speak to clarify the economic outlook and the future trajectory of interest rates.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.65% (-1.54% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.38% (-2.22% for the week) on Friday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.19% (-1.73% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on negative 0.65% (-3.48% for the week). This week, a slew of manufacturing and service sector business activity data will be released on Wednesday. This data could provide insight into whether the European Central Bank will raise interest rates again in September and whether the Bank of England will decide to raise rates more aggressively at its next meeting.

On Friday, crude oil prices broke a seven-week winning streak. Investors are now focused on the distinct possibility of lower energy demand rather than the certainty of supply cuts. Over the past few weeks, increasingly contradictory economic news has come out of China, crowned by the release of alarming consumer price data indicating that the country is in complete deflation. Problems at some significant real estate construction companies further underscore the slowdown in China’s economic recovery. Over the weekend, another major real estate developer Country Garden found itself in the grip of a debt crisis. China is the world’s largest energy importer, and any sign of economic stagnation will always be bad news for oil bulls.

Asian markets were also down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 3.10% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.88%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week down by 3.99%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week on negative 2.62%.

On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) lowered the benchmark one-year lending rate (LPR) to 3.45% from 3.55% previously (3.40% expected). Meanwhile, China’s Central Bank kept the five-year interest rate unchanged at 4.20%. The rate cut is being implemented to support economic development, which is a positive for Chinese stocks. It is also a positive factor for countries with close trade cooperation with China, Singapore, New Zealand, and Australia.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,369.71 −0.65 (−0.02%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,500.66 +25.83 (+0.075%)

DAX (DE40)  15,574.26 −102.64 (−0.65%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,262.43 −47.78 (−0.65%)

USD Index  102.85 +0.33 (+0.32%)

Important events for today:
  • – New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:15 (GMT+3);
  • – German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.