InvestMacro

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (27,565 contracts) with Silver (13,556 contracts), Platinum (11,975 contracts), Copper (6,870 contracts) and with Palladium (3,988 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with a decrease was Steel with a shortfall by -346 contracts on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (96 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (81 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (51 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (89.3 percent)
Silver (96.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (77.9 percent)
Copper (51.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (45.2 percent)
Platinum (76.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (44.7 percent)
Palladium (50.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.4 percent)
Steel (81.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (82.7 percent)

Palladium & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (46 percent) and Platinum (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (28 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (0 percent) is the lowest trend score currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (27.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.9 percent)
Silver (12.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-5.8 percent)
Copper (0.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (-10.9 percent)
Platinum (31.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.5 percent)
Palladium (45.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.4 percent)
Steel (7.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (8.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 310,066 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 27,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 282,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.8	13.9	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	76.2	5.2
– Net Position:	310,066	-335,127	25,061
– Gross Longs:	369,734	74,647	52,976
– Gross Shorts:	59,668	409,774	27,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.6	-24.2	-18.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 58,298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,556 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.3	20.0	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	75.0	7.1
– Net Position:	58,298	-77,306	19,008
– Gross Longs:	74,978	28,131	29,005
– Gross Shorts:	16,680	105,437	9,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.3	8.3	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-8.5	-7.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,812 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	34.4	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	46.9	5.9
– Net Position:	19,682	-25,602	5,920
– Gross Longs:	79,235	70,413	17,898
– Gross Shorts:	59,553	96,015	11,978
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	48.4	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	2.3	-16.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	24.0	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	58.2	5.3
– Net Position:	21,978	-27,031	5,053
– Gross Longs:	42,679	19,028	9,283
– Gross Shorts:	20,701	46,059	4,230
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	19.5	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.2	-29.6	-9.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,988 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	58.7	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.7	20.1	11.1
– Net Position:	-7,000	7,226	-226
– Gross Longs:	5,102	10,983	1,853
– Gross Shorts:	12,102	3,757	2,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.7	55.5	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.8	-34.6	-66.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	72.4	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	57.3	1.0
– Net Position:	-3,923	3,795	128
– Gross Longs:	3,807	18,213	376
– Gross Shorts:	7,730	14,418	248
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	19.1	46.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-8.4	24.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

21 Sep

Speculator Extremes: Gold, Yen, Fed Funds & VIX lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 17th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Gold

The Gold speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Gold speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 27.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 310,066 net contracts this week with a gain of 27,565 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 28.3 this week. The speculator position registered 56,840 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 1,070 contracts in speculator bets.

Fed Funds

The Fed Funds speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Fed Funds speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 54.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 178,807 net contracts this week with a surge of 235,228 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 37.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -6,513 net contracts this week with an increase by 8,598 contracts in the speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Silver speculator level sits at a 96.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 12.5 this week.

The speculator position was 58,298 net contracts this week with a gain of 13,556 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,094,026 net contracts this week with a drop of -71,921 contracts in the speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 0.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -39.3 this week. The speculator position was -13,385 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,424 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level resides at a 2.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 145,328 net contracts this week with a rise of 5,314 contracts in the speculator bets.

Gasoline

The Gasoline speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Gasoline speculator level is at a 7.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.2 this week. The speculator position was 16,749 net contracts this week with an increase of 1,112 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Finally, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 7.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -30.6 this week. The speculator position was 1,798 net contracts this week with a drop of -18,412 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

21 Sep

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (235,228 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (126,136 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (10,506 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-77,632 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-71,921 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-44,450 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-45,481 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-20,204 contracts) and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-15,145 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (100 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (95 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (84 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 10-Year Bond (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (9 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (29 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (100.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (50.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (28.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (30.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (48.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (46.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (45.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (61.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (84.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (91.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (18.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (30.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (94.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (98.7 percent)

Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (55 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (47 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (25 percent) was the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-45.7 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-25 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-18 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (54.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (32.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (5.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-3.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-24.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-23.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (24.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-18.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-6.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (47.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (73.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-45.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-41.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (15.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (29.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 178,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 235,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,421 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	53.6	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	60.5	2.8
– Net Position:	178,807	-155,837	-22,970
– Gross Longs:	564,701	1,215,899	40,036
– Gross Shorts:	385,894	1,371,736	63,006
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	43.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.7	-52.3	-20.8

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 666,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -77,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 744,227 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.9	54.5	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	60.2	0.4
– Net Position:	666,595	-675,562	8,967
– Gross Longs:	2,000,550	6,449,299	50,395
– Gross Shorts:	1,333,955	7,124,861	41,428
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.7	4.6	92.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-16.2	7.0

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -180,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -44,450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.5	64.5	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	50.6	0.3
– Net Position:	-180,527	184,536	-4,009
– Gross Longs:	219,572	856,650	379
– Gross Shorts:	400,099	672,114	4,388
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.7	82.4	23.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.7	46.4	-24.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,026,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,006,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	77.0	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	56.9	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,026,420	867,872	158,548
– Gross Longs:	637,164	3,321,163	279,299
– Gross Shorts:	1,663,584	2,453,291	120,751
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.7	65.7	86.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-4.9	-3.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,593,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 126,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,719,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	82.2	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	60.5	4.0
– Net Position:	-1,593,860	1,391,327	202,533
– Gross Longs:	607,540	5,260,229	455,505
– Gross Shorts:	2,201,400	3,868,902	252,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.8	91.7	91.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-3.8	-8.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,094,026 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -71,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,022,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	79.8	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	60.6	6.7
– Net Position:	-1,094,026	943,854	150,172
– Gross Longs:	431,039	3,910,709	479,362
– Gross Shorts:	1,525,065	2,966,855	329,190
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	98.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.9	36.5	2.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -45,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,146 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	73.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	68.8	12.9
– Net Position:	-45,640	105,997	-60,357
– Gross Longs:	325,963	1,559,701	212,603
– Gross Shorts:	371,603	1,453,704	272,960
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.4	33.9	77.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.7	-21.5	-23.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -109,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -45,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	65.0	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	65.2	7.7
– Net Position:	-109,711	-2,942	112,653
– Gross Longs:	358,317	1,142,280	247,909
– Gross Shorts:	468,028	1,145,222	135,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	27.9	96.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	11.2	12.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -274,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -259,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	77.4	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	64.2	9.0
– Net Position:	-274,303	228,728	45,575
– Gross Longs:	176,456	1,335,723	200,411
– Gross Shorts:	450,759	1,106,995	154,836
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.2	8.0	72.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.3	-64.6	34.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

21 Sep

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (8,598 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (6,446 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-63,560 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-11,500 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-6,393 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-2,741 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Russell-Mini (87 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (84 percent) and Nasdaq-Mini (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (25 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently. The next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (91.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (46.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (55.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (84.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (73.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (69.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (78.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (87.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (89.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (25.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (37.4 percent)

VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (37 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (12 percent), the Nasdaq-Mini (10 percent) and the Russell-Mini (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-21 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (37.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (34.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-23.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-10.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (11.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (10.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (36.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (4.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (28.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-20.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-10.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,598 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,111 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	42.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	39.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-6,513	11,303	-4,790
– Gross Longs:	73,617	150,291	25,574
– Gross Shorts:	80,130	138,988	30,364
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.1	-45.3	34.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -122,948 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -63,560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	72.1	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	70.7	7.4
– Net Position:	-122,948	37,745	85,203
– Gross Longs:	298,516	1,860,927	277,262
– Gross Shorts:	421,464	1,823,182	192,059
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.4	45.1	82.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.4	21.6	0.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	56.8	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	73.1	15.1
– Net Position:	14,614	-15,981	1,367
– Gross Longs:	22,588	55,756	16,195
– Gross Shorts:	7,974	71,737	14,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.1	15.0	62.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-12.6	8.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	55.4	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	67.7	10.6
– Net Position:	19,233	-32,928	13,695
– Gross Longs:	68,287	148,042	42,112
– Gross Shorts:	49,054	180,970	28,417
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.0	16.4	80.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-1.6	-9.9

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,727 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	73.0	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	76.0	3.7
– Net Position:	2,986	-15,705	12,719
– Gross Longs:	78,186	384,670	32,407
– Gross Shorts:	75,200	400,375	19,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.2	10.4	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-5.9	12.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -40,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,500 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	90.0	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	83.4	2.6
– Net Position:	-40,750	34,144	6,606
– Gross Longs:	28,094	463,792	19,771
– Gross Shorts:	68,844	429,648	13,165
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.1	71.6	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.6	19.6	2.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

21 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Cotton & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (19,749 contracts) with Soybeans (9,593 contracts), Sugar (8,847 contracts), Coffee (6,681 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,390 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,171 contracts), Wheat (2,114 contracts) and Cocoa (1,528 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-18,535 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-4,028 contracts) and Live Cattle (-2,551 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Wheat

On the downside, Live Cattle (12 percent), Cotton (12 percent) and Soybeans (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (25.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (27.8 percent)
Sugar (26.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.8 percent)
Coffee (94.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.7 percent)
Soybeans (14.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (12.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (36.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (38.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (45.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (43.4 percent)
Live Cattle (11.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (14.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (29.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.1 percent)
Cotton (11.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (44.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (42.8 percent)
Wheat (59.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (58.3 percent)

Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (22 percent) and Wheat (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (17 percent), Sugar (16 percent) and Corn (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (10.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.0 percent)
Sugar (16.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.5 percent)
Coffee (10.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.4 percent)
Soybeans (5.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (22.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (17.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-29.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (16.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.4 percent)
Cotton (9.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-5.2 percent)
Cocoa (2.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.7 percent)
Wheat (18.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -66,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	43.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	36.5	12.2
– Net Position:	-66,295	104,089	-37,794
– Gross Longs:	337,834	623,438	135,315
– Gross Shorts:	404,129	519,349	173,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.4	76.3	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-9.2	-21.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 72,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	54.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	64.6	8.0
– Net Position:	72,250	-79,058	6,808
– Gross Longs:	174,439	409,670	67,622
– Gross Shorts:	102,189	488,728	60,814
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.9	73.7	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-16.9	16.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,447 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	36.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	72.6	2.5
– Net Position:	70,128	-73,522	3,394
– Gross Longs:	83,448	76,124	8,553
– Gross Shorts:	13,320	149,646	5,159
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.2	5.2	69.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-11.4	12.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -134,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	62.2	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	43.8	7.5
– Net Position:	-134,638	155,638	-21,000
– Gross Longs:	111,373	526,047	42,565
– Gross Shorts:	246,011	370,409	63,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	87.2	57.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-4.3	-18.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	50.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	48.8	4.9
– Net Position:	-8,897	6,668	2,229
– Gross Longs:	141,892	277,776	29,225
– Gross Shorts:	150,789	271,108	26,996
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.6	66.2	22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-19.1	-6.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,288 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	47.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	59.1	5.4
– Net Position:	43,288	-61,679	18,391
– Gross Longs:	123,866	246,500	46,358
– Gross Shorts:	80,578	308,179	27,967
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.2	53.3	38.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-0.1	0.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	36.2	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	42.3	13.4
– Net Position:	30,498	-17,976	-12,522
– Gross Longs:	96,606	107,831	27,425
– Gross Shorts:	66,108	125,807	39,947
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	100.0	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	18.9	-4.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,310 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	38.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.9	35.8	9.4
– Net Position:	-3,310	6,745	-3,435
– Gross Longs:	93,358	98,065	20,404
– Gross Shorts:	96,668	91,320	23,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	69.7	67.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	-20.2	1.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,111 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	47.8	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	37.2	5.3
– Net Position:	-26,362	24,854	1,508
– Gross Longs:	59,144	112,312	13,978
– Gross Shorts:	85,506	87,458	12,470
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	86.8	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-10.8	24.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 33,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.1	35.0	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	62.6	3.0
– Net Position:	33,753	-39,580	5,827
– Gross Longs:	51,815	50,202	10,154
– Gross Shorts:	18,062	89,782	4,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.4	52.3	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-2.5	-1.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,114 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.4	35.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.4	29.7	10.1
– Net Position:	-14,189	20,379	-6,190
– Gross Longs:	124,164	124,609	29,368
– Gross Shorts:	138,353	104,230	35,558
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	40.5	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-20.2	2.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

20 Sep

The People’s Bank of China kept key rates unchanged. Oil grows amid escalating conflict in the Middle East

By JustMarkets

The US indices rose steadily on Thursday. The S&P 500 (US500) and Dow Jones (US30) indices rose to new record highs, while the NASDAQ (US100) rose to a 2-month high. At the end of the day, the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 1.7%, the Dow Jones (US30) added 1.26%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped 2.51%.

The Fed’s 50 bps rate cut and estimates of another 50 bps rate cut this year reinforced speculation that the Fed will provide a “soft landing” and boosted risk sentiment in asset markets. Stocks maintained gains on Thursday despite higher bond yields after weekly US jobless claims fell more than expected to a four-month low, a hawkish factor for Fed policy. US weekly jobless claims fell by 12,000 to a 4-month low of 219,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of 230,000. Markets rate the odds of a 25bp rate cut at the November 6–7 FOMC meeting at 100% and a 50bp rate cut at this meeting at 44%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.55%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 2.29% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.80%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.91%.

Producer prices in Germany fell 0.8% y/y in August 2024, the same pace as the previous month and better than market projections, which expected a 1.0% drop. This was the 14th consecutive month of producer price deflation and the lowest in the sequence. UK retail sales in August 2024 were up 1% on the previous month, following an upwardly revised rise of 0.7% in July and well above prognoses of 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales rose by 2.5%, the highest since February 2022.

The Bank of Norway left its key rate unchanged at a sixteen-year high of 4.5% at its sixth consecutive meeting in September 2024 in line with market expectations and noted that it is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged until the end of the year. The bank noted that the higher interest rate helped cool the Norwegian economy as growth remained subdued and unemployment rose from a lower level.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $71.5 a barrel on Thursday, extending their recovery from a 15-month low of $65 reached on September 10, amid expectations of higher global energy demand and rising risk premiums caused by rising tensions in the Middle East. There were reports that Hezbollah radios exploded in southern Lebanon late Wednesday night after similar pager blasts a day earlier, heightening fears of military action in the region and Iran’s involvement in the conflict. Israel’s defense minister warned that the country has entered a new phase of war against its neighbors.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.13%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 2.00%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.61%.

The offshore yuan strengthened to 7.05 per dollar, remaining at its highest level since May 2023 and posting gains for the third consecutive session. The surge followed the Chinese Central Bank’s decision to keep key lending rates unchanged during September, which was in line with market expectations. The one-year prime rate (LPR), the benchmark for most corporate and home loans, remained unchanged at 3.35%, while the five-year rate, the benchmark for real estate mortgages, remained unchanged at 3.85%. Both rates remain at record lows after unexpectedly falling in July.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) unanimously kept its key short-term interest rate at around 0.25% during its September meeting, leaving it at its highest level since 2008, in line with market consensus. Friday’s decision underscored that the Central Bank is in no rush to raise rates further after raising them twice this year, in March and July. The board also said more time was needed to monitor financial markets amid hawkish views from some members.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,713.64 +95.38 (+1.70%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,025.19 +522.09 (+1.26%)

DAX (DE40) 19,002.38 +290.89 (+1.55%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,328.72 +75.04 (+0.91%)

USD Index 100.64 +0.04 (+0.04%)

News feed for: 2024.09.20

Japan National Core Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:15 (GMT+3);
Japan BoJ Outlook Report at 07:00 (GMT+3);
Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 07:00 (GMT+3);
UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

20 Sep

Week Ahead: Can RUS2000 reach highest since 2021?

By ForexTime

RUS2000: FXTM’s best-performing US stock index so far this week/month
RUS2000 forecasted to have the most potential upside over the next 12 months
Fed speakers, US data next week could help RUS2000 move closer to 2021 all-time high
Markets predict 89% chance Fed will cut rates by further 75-basis points by end-2024
Return of US recession fears could send RUS2000 plummeting

The RUS2000 index has been outshining its US peers of late.

This US stock index tracks the smallest 2000 publicly listed companies operating in the world’s largest economy i.e. companies that are more reflective of true US economic conditions.

Of late, the RUS2000 has been rejoicing the most, relative to FXTM’s other US stock indexes, over the Fed’s jumbo-sized 50 basis point rate cut!

That rate cut on September 18th, 2024 was the first US rate cut in 4 years.

With the Fed coming to the US economy’s aid with its rate cuts, the RUS2000 has outperformed other US stock indexes, both on a week-to-date (wtd) and month-to-date (mtd) basis:

RUS2000: up 3.2% wtd / 1.6% mtd
US400: up 3% wtd / 1.1% mtd
NAS100: up 1.7% wtd / 1.35% mtd
US500: up 1.56% wtd / 1.16% mtd
US30: up 1.53% wtd / 1.1% mtd

But RUS2000 still missing out on record-high club, for now

To be clear, the RUS200 has yet to join the record-high party which already features the likes of US500, US30, US400, and even gold of late.

At the time of writing, the RUS2000 remains about 8.5% below its all-time high, using intraday prices, of 2458.85 registered on November 8th, 2021.

Wall Street experts predict it will eventually set a new record high, but perhaps only by this time next year.

Wall Street most bullish on RUS2000 12-month outlook

Here are the forecasted potential gains for these US stock indexes over the next 12 months:

RUS2000: 19.4%
NAS100: 11.7%
US400: 9.9%
US500: 9.1%
US30: 5.4%

However, such gains are predicated on the notion that the Fed can indeed fend off a US recession.

And much of that will depend on the incoming US economic data, and whether the Fed can overcome their differing views and lower interest rates fast enough to avoid such a scenario.

Otherwise, a US recession is bound to send the RUS2000 plummeting, given the economically-sensitive nature of the stocks within this index.

What to look out for in the coming week?

The incoming scheduled speeches by Fed officials, fresh out of their September FOMC meeting, could provide further cause for RUS2000 bulls (those hoping prices will go higher) to rejoice even more:

Monday, September 23

NZD: New Zealand August trade balance
SG20 index: Singapore August CPI
TWN index: Taiwan August unemployment
EU50 index: Eurozone September PMIs
GBP: UK September PMIs
USD index: US September PMIs
RUS2000 index: Speeches by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

Tuesday, September 24

JP225 index: Japan September PMIs
AUD: RBA rate decision
TWN index: Taiwan August export orders
GER40 index: Germany September business climate
Brent/Crude: OPEC releases annual World Oil Outlook
US400 index: US September consumer confidence

Wednesday, September 25

CNH: China medium-term lending facility rate
AU200 index: Australia August CPI
SEK: Riksbank policy rate decision
TWN index: Taiwan August industrial production

Thursday, September 26

JPY: BoJ meeting minutes
SG20 index: Singapore August industrial production
CHF: SNB policy rate decision
US500 index: US weekly initial jobless claims; US 2Q GDP (final)
USD index: Speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell (pre-recorded), New York Fed President John Williams, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen

Friday, September 27

JPY: Tokyo September CPI; LDP internal elections
CN50 index: China August industrial profits
EUR: Eurozone September economic confidence; Germany September unemployment
US400 index: US August PCE, personal income and spending
RUS2000 index: Speeches by Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler

Sure, the coming week also features key US economic data such as the US purchasing managers index (PMIs), consumer confidence, weekly jobless claims, final estimate of 2Q GDP, personal income and spending, as well as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the personal consumption expenditures (PCE).

All of these quantitative data certainly hold the potential to move US stock markets, including the RUS2000 index.

However, markets may instead be more attentive to the forward-looking statements out of Fed officials in the days ahead.

Why are the Fed speakers so important?

These scheduled speeches come just days after the Fed’s jumbo rate cut on September 18th.

Note that this latest US rates decision also featured its first dissenting vote from any FOMC member since 2022.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman voted in favour of a run-of-the-mill 25 basis point cut at the just-concluded September meeting.

A closer look at the FOMC’s famous “dot plot” also suggests that policymakers at the world’s most powerful central bank are at odds regarding the size and timing of future rate cuts:

10 of 19 officials prefer another 50-bps in rate cuts by end-2024
7 of the 19 voted for only one sole 25-bps rate cut by year-end
2 of the remaining officials voted for no more rate cuts this year.

FOMC “dot plot” at odds with market forecasts

Not only are there differing views amongst FOMC members themselves, those views are also at odds with the market’s current forecasts.

At the time of writing, markets are forecasting a 89% chance that the Fed will lower its benchmark rates by another 75-basis points by Christmas.

Hence, the incoming Fed speak** will be stacked up against the latest Fed dot plot, and also current market forecasts.

**in bold in our coming week’s list of highlighted events (see above).

Notable shifts to existing market forecasts over incoming Fed rate cuts, either by way of signals from the Fed speak or US economic data, are bound to move prices across various asset classes in the week ahead.

In short, if you think the Fed watch is over, think again.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

If the incoming Fed speak and US economic data assures markets that the Fed can proceed with the forecasted 75 basis points in rate cuts by end-2024, that could help RUS2000 punch its way past 2300 and closer to its November 2021 record high.
If the incoming Fed speak and US economic data pushes back on market forecasts for 75 basis points in Fed rate cuts by end-2024, that could drag the RUS2000 stock index back to its 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA) around 2170 for support.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

20 Sep

AUD/USD Reaches New Heights as Risk Sentiment Improves

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair has climbed to a new peak, reaching 0.6815, marking the highest level since 28 December of the previous year. This strength in the Australian dollar is partly due to the aggressive rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, which has spurred expectations that other central banks might also ease monetary policies, enhancing the economic outlook and fuelling a rally in riskier assets.

This week, Australian employment data significantly outperformed expectations, showing a 47.5k increase in jobs for August, far exceeding the forecasted 25.0k. This robust job growth has kept the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. Despite this positive economic indicator, the main expectation is that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain its interest rate at the current level in its upcoming meeting, with analysts predicting no changes to monetary policy until at least December and possibly not until Q2 of next year. The RBA’s cautious approach to inflation underscores its strategy of not taking decisive action until there is apparent necessity.

Given the current favourable risk environment, the AUD could reach even higher levels soon.

AUD/USD technical analysis

The AUD/USD market is advancing in the fifth wave of growth towards 0.6855. This target will likely be reached soon, followed by a corrective movement to 0.6790, testing it from above. This could define the upper boundary of a new consolidation range. Should the pair break below this range, a further decline to 0.6736 might ensue, potentially signalling the start of a new downward trend towards 0.6640, with a continuation to 0.6590. The MACD indicator, currently at its highs and directed upwards, supports this bullish scenario in the short term.

On the H1 chart, AUD/USD is forming a growth structure towards 0.6855. A short rise to 0.6848 is expected, followed by a slight decline to 0.6825. Upon completion of this minor correction, another growth phase towards 0.6855 is anticipated, which could exhaust the potential of the current growth wave. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 50 and pointing upwards, corroborates the likelihood of continued upward movement before any significant pullback.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 Sep

Brent Crude Oil Rebounds Amid Monetary Easing and Market Dynamics

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent crude oil has regained its upward momentum, climbing towards 73.63 USD, following a recent decline triggered by comments from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. In his statement, Powell indicated that the Fed would be cautious about further easing monetary conditions, emphasizing that the rate cut schedule should not be seen as a definitive plan for all future actions by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Despite these cautious remarks, the Fed’s recent decision to lower rates by 50 basis points is fundamentally seen as positive for the commodity market. Lower borrowing costs might stimulate economic demand and enhance interest in energy resources.

Concurrently, the latest data from the US Department of Energy showing a decrease in crude oil inventories by 1.63 million barrels—exceeding expectations of a 0.50 million barrel reduction—also supports bullish sentiments in the oil market. This stock reduction is especially significant as it indicates a robust demand backdrop.

Additionally, the market is closely monitoring potential increases in oil production by OPEC+ countries and the economic data coming from China, the world’s largest oil consumer. Recent weaker-than-expected economic indicators from China have cast some doubts on the sustained strength of oil demand.

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains a critical factor, with any escalation potentially impacting energy supply routes and market stability.

Technical analysis of Brent Crude Oil

The market has established a consolidation range around 72.00 USD for the further Brent forecast, with current fluctuations extending to a high of 73.73 USD and a low of 71.78 USD. Having found support at 71.78 USD, there is potential for the market to breach the upper boundary of 73.73 USD today. A successful break above this level could indicate a continuation of the growth trend towards 75.15 USD, possibly reaching up to 75.77 USD. The MACD indicator supports this bullish outlook, with the signal line below zero but pointing upwards, suggesting an imminent upward movement.

Today, Brent surpassed the 73.00 USD mark, continuing its ascent towards the target of 75.15 USD. Upon reaching this target, a retest of the 73.00 USD level from above may occur, potentially setting the stage for another upward wave towards 75.77 USD. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80, is poised for a temporary decline, indicating that a corrective phase could follow before further gains.

Disclaimer

Energy Financial News

19 Sep

The US Fed surprised the market with a sharp rate cut. Australia’s labor market remains resilient

By JustMarkets

Stocks rallied first on Wednesday afternoon, with the S&P 500 (US500) and Dow Jones (US30) rising to new record highs and the NASDAQ (US100) rising to a 3-week-high. The FOMC’s decision on Wednesday to cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 bps and project another 50 bps rate cut before the end of the year pushed stock prices higher. However, stocks later gave up their mid-session gains and moved lower as hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell pushed bond yields higher and sparked a sell-off in shares of chip companies. As a result, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.25%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.29%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.31%.

The FOMC voted 11–1 to cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 bps to 4.75–5.00% and said the committee is “firmly committed to supporting maximum employment” and returning inflation to the 2% target. The market did not expect a 50bp rate cut immediately, but the reaction was rather subdued. Powell tried to reassure participants by explaining that the double cut was not a reaction to economic problems, but rather a catch-up with other central banks and a pre-emptive measure to avoid recession. The FOMC lowered its 2024 US GDP estimate to 2.0% from 2.1% in June and lowered its 2024 core PCE projection to 2.6% from 2.8% in June. The FOMC also raised its 2024 unemployment prognosis to 4.4% from 4.0% in June.

Key talking points from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech:

The Fed rate was lowered to 5.00%, compared to market expectations of 5.25%; this is the first Fed rate cut in four years.
Fed balance sheet reduction (QT) continues as planned.
Declining inflation and a cooling labor market indicate the need for monetary policy easing.
The US economy is strong, but since other central banks have already cut rates earlier this year, the Fed may act more aggressively.
The Fed has kept rates high longer than other central banks, and that has had an effect: lower inflation is on the right trajectory.
The current 50bp rate cut is not a reaction to the economic problems but a signal that the regulator will not allow a significant deterioration in the labor market and the economy.

It should be noted that on Friday the quarterly expiration of derivatives in the US market will take place, and there is an active transfer of positions to the December expiration. The closing of the current week will be key to determining the medium-term prospects of the markets.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. German DAX (DE40) declined by 0.08%, French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.57%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.16%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.68%.

On Thursday, WTI crude oil prices fell to around $70.3 per barrel, declining for the second consecutive session, amid a rising US dollar. While the recent half-point cut in the Fed Funds rate would normally support oil prices, market sentiment was dampened by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement that the Central Bank would not be in a hurry to ease monetary policy and that the dot plot of the federal funds rate estimate should not be seen as a policy plan.

Asian markets mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.49%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.37% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.02%.

The Australian dollar rose to $0.678 as good employment data suggested that the economy remains strong, giving the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) room to hold policy. The data showed that the number of jobs in Australia increased by 47,55 in August, well above projections of 25,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at its highest level in two and a half years at 4.2%. Markets currently believe that the RBA will not cut interest rates until at least December, with some economists expecting the first move as early as the second quarter of 2025.

The New Zealand dollar rose to as high as $0.621 even after data showed that New Zealand’s economy contracted in the second quarter. Data released on Thursday showed GDP fell by 0.2% in the June quarter, which was better than the RBNZ’s estimate of a 0.5% contraction. On an annualized basis, GDP contracted 0.5%, which was in line with expectations. Markets have now fully priced in the possibility of another quarter-point rate cut in October, and there is a 28% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,618.26 −16.32 (−0.29%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,503.10 −103.08 (−0.25%)

DAX (DE40) 18,711.49 −14.59 (−0.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,253.68 −56.18 (−0.68%)

USD Index 100.95 +0.06 (+0.06%)

News feed for: 2024.09.19

New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
Norwegian Interest Rate Decision at 11:30 (GMT+3);
UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+3);
UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 (GMT+3);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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