InvestMacro

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by DowJones & Nasdaq

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones & Nasdaq

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (5,491 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (2,897 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-61,352 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-13,871 contracts), the VIX (-4,330 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-2,316 contracts) and with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-461 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (89 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (71 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (66 percent) and Nikkei 225 (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (88.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (93.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (52.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (61.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (71.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (62.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (56.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (52.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (65.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (75.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (27.9 percent)

VIX & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (40 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (29 percent), the Nikkei 225 (20 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-4 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (39.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (35.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-4.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-1.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-1.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (9.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-3.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (28.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (44.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (20.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (36.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-9.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -24,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,262 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	47.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	41.7	7.2
– Net Position:	-24,592	21,531	3,061
– Gross Longs:	75,004	193,348	32,701
– Gross Shorts:	99,596	171,817	29,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	3.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.9	-43.6	12.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -84,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -61,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	70.1	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	70.4	8.3
– Net Position:	-84,803	-4,339	89,142
– Gross Longs:	277,634	1,438,541	260,164
– Gross Shorts:	362,437	1,442,880	171,022
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	39.3	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	5.3	-3.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	56.7	15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	65.4	14.6
– Net Position:	6,728	-7,610	882
– Gross Longs:	22,507	49,419	13,628
– Gross Shorts:	15,779	57,029	12,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.2	27.2	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	5.0	-12.5

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 11,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	58.5	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	67.6	11.5
– Net Position:	11,381	-22,205	10,824
– Gross Longs:	55,674	142,783	38,994
– Gross Shorts:	44,293	164,988	28,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	28.2	75.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-7.1	0.6

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -27,127 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,871 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	76.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	72.7	4.3
– Net Position:	-27,127	14,057	13,070
– Gross Longs:	64,562	321,263	31,232
– Gross Shorts:	91,689	307,206	18,162
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.9	29.5	73.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.7	-28.7	14.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,391 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	60.0	24.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	50.7	17.0
– Net Position:	-2,391	1,342	1,049
– Gross Longs:	2,295	8,711	3,523
– Gross Shorts:	4,686	7,369	2,474
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	35.8	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-13.1	-10.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,102 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	90.1	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	82.3	1.6
– Net Position:	-38,563	32,556	6,007
– Gross Longs:	27,458	375,143	12,596
– Gross Shorts:	66,021	342,587	6,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.4	69.9	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	13.5	4.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

23 Aug

Quantum information theorists are shedding light on entanglement, one of the spooky mysteries of quantum mechanics

By William Mark Stuckey, Elizabethtown College

The year 2025 marks the 100th anniversary of the birth of quantum mechanics. In the century since the field’s inception, scientists and engineers have used quantum mechanics to create technologies such as lasers, MRI scanners and computer chips.

Today, researchers are looking toward building quantum computers and ways to securely transfer information using an entirely new sister field called quantum information science.

But despite creating all these breakthrough technologies, physicists and philosophers who study quantum mechanics still haven’t come up with the answers to some big questions raised by the field’s founders. Given recent developments in quantum information science, researchers like me are using quantum information theory to explore new ways of thinking about these unanswered foundational questions. And one direction we’re looking into relates Albert Einstein’s relativity principle to the qubit.

Quantum computers

Quantum information science focuses on building quantum computers based on the quantum “bit” of information, or qubit. The qubit is historically grounded in the discoveries of physicists Max Planck and Einstein. They instigated the development of quantum mechanics in 1900 and 1905, respectively, when they discovered that light exists in discrete, or “quantum,” bundles of energy.

These quanta of energy also come in small forms of matter, such as atoms and electrons, which make up everything in the universe. It is the odd properties of these tiny packets of matter and energy that are responsible for the computational advantages of the qubit.

A computer based on a quantum bit rather than a classical bit could have a significant computing advantage. And that’s because a classical bit produces a binary response – either a 1 or a 0 – to only one query.

In contrast, the qubit produces a binary response to infinitely many queries using the property of quantum superposition. This property allows researchers to connect multiple qubits in what’s called a quantum entangled state. Here, the entangled qubits act collectively in a way that arrays of classical bits cannot.

That means a quantum computer can do some calculations much faster than an ordinary computer. For example, one device reportedly used 76 entangled qubits to solve a sampling problem 100 trillion times faster than a classical computer.

But the exact force or principle of nature responsible for this quantum entangled state that underlies quantum computing is a big unanswered question. A solution that my colleagues and I in quantum information theory have proposed has to do with Einstein’s relativity principle.

Quantum superposition and entanglement allow qubits to contain far more information than classical bits.

Quantum information theory

The relativity principle says that the laws of physics are the same for all observers, regardless of where they are in space, how they’re oriented or how they’re moving relative to each other. My team showed how to use the relativity principle in conjunction with the principles of quantum information theory to account for quantum entangled particles.

Quantum information theorists like me think about quantum mechanics as a theory of information principles rather than a theory of forces. That’s very different than the typical approach to quantum physics, in which force and energy are important concepts for doing the calculations. In contrast, quantum information theorists don’t need to know what sort of physical force might be causing the mysterious behavior of entangled quantum particles.

That gives us an advantage for explaining quantum entanglement because, as physicist John Bell proved in 1964, any explanation for quantum entanglement in terms of forces requires what Einstein called “spooky actions at a distance.”

That’s because the measurement outcomes of the two entangled quantum particles are correlated – even if those measurements are done at the same time and the particles are physically separated by a vast distance. So, if a force is causing quantum entanglement, it would have to act faster than the speed of light. And a faster-than-light force violates Einstein’s theory of special relativity.

Quantum entanglement is important to quantum computing.

Many researchers are trying to find an explanation for quantum entanglement that doesn’t require spooky actions at a distance, like my team’s proposed solution.

Classical and quantum entanglement

In entanglement, you can know something about two particles collectively – call them particle 1 and particle 2 – so that when you measure particle 1, you immediately know something about particle 2.

Imagine you’re mailing two friends, whom physicists typically call Alice and Bob, each one glove from the same pair of gloves. When Alice opens her box and sees a left-hand glove, she’ll know immediately that when Bob opens the other box he will see the right-hand glove. Each box and glove combination produces one of two outcomes, either a right-hand glove or a left-hand glove. There’s only one possible measurement – opening the box – so Alice and Bob have entangled classical bits of information.

But in quantum entanglement the situation involves entangled qubits, which behave very differently than classical bits.

Qubit behavior

Consider a property of electrons called spin. When you measure an electron’s spin using magnets that are oriented vertically, you always get a spin that’s up or down, nothing in between. That’s a binary measurement outcome, so this is a bit of information.

Two diagrams showing electrons passing through magnets. The top diagram shows one on top and one below the electrons' path. The electrons are either deflected up or down, as indicated by the split paths, after passing through the magnet. The bottom diagram shows two magnets, one on the left and one on the right of the electrons' path. The electrons are either deflected left or right, as indicated by the split paths, after passing through the magnet. — Two magnets oriented vertically can measure an electron’s vertical spin. After moving through the magnets, the electron is deflected either up or down. Similarly, two magnets oriented horizontally can measure an electron’s horizontal spin. After moving through the magnets, the electron is deflected either left or right.
Timothy McDevitt

If you turn the magnets on their sides to measure an electron’s spin horizontally, you always get a spin that’s left or right, nothing in between. The vertical and horizontal orientations of the magnets constitute two different measurements of this same bit. So, electron spin is a qubit – it produces a binary response to multiple measurements.

Quantum superposition

Now suppose you first measure an electron’s spin vertically and find it is up, then you measure its spin horizontally. When you stand straight up, you don’t move to your right or your left at all. So, if I measure how much you move side to side as you stand straight up, I’ll get zero.

That’s exactly what you might expect for the vertical spin up electrons. Since they have vertically oriented spin up, analogous to standing straight up, they should not have any spin left or right horizontally, analogous to moving side to side.

Surprisingly, physicists have found that half of them are horizontally right and half are horizontally left. Now it doesn’t seem to make sense that a vertical spin up electron has left spin (-1) and right spin (+1) outcomes when measured horizontally, just as we expect no side-to-side movement when standing straight up.

But when you add up all the left (-1) and right (+1) spin outcomes you do get zero, as we expected in the horizontal direction when our spin state is vertical spin up. So, on average, it’s like having no side-to-side or horizontal movement when we stand straight up.

This 50-50 ratio over the binary (+1 and -1) outcomes is what physicists are talking about when they say that a vertical spin up electron is in a quantum superposition of horizontal spins left and right.

Entanglement from the relativity principle

According to quantum information theory, all of quantum mechanics, to include its quantum entangled states, is based on the qubit with its quantum superposition.

What my colleagues and I proposed is that this quantum superposition results from the relativity principle, which (again) states the laws of physics are the same for all observers with different orientations in space.

If the electron with a vertical spin in the up direction were to pass straight through the horizontal magnets as you might expect, it would have no spin horizontally. This would violate the relativity principle, which says the particle should have a spin regardless of whether it’s being measured in the horizontal or vertical direction.

Because an electron with a vertical spin in the up direction does have a spin when measured horizontally, quantum information theorists can say that the relativity principle is (ultimately) responsible for quantum entanglement.

And since there is no force used in this principle explanation, there are none of the “spooky actions at a distance” that Einstein derided.

With quantum entanglement’s technological implications for quantum computing firmly established, it’s nice to know that one big question about its origin may be answered with a highly regarded physics principle.

About the Author:

William Mark Stuckey, Professor of Physics, Elizabethtown College

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

23 Aug

AUD/USD Sees Rebound: Weak US Dollar and RBA’s Steady Stance Support Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department

AUD/USD is finding its footing, currently stabilising at around 0.6725, as the US dollar weakens further in anticipation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

The Australian dollar’s resilience is bolstered by the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting, indicating that the central bank is not in a hurry to ease monetary policy despite a slowdown in inflation. The RBA remains cautious, projecting inflation to stay above its 2-3% target range until the end of 2025. This suggests that interest rates may remain steady for an extended period, providing a stable backdrop for the Australian dollar.

Recent data highlights robust performance in Australia’s private sector for August, particularly in services, while the contraction in manufacturing is easing. This paints a picture of an Australian economy that is adjusting well and could sustain its momentum without immediate monetary stimulus. Investors are watching closely for cues on future policy shifts, influencing forex forecasts.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair recently peaked at 0.6760 but is now poised for a correction. The immediate focus is on a potential descent to 0.6684, marking the first significant support level. Upon reaching this target, a retest of 0.6725 from below may occur, defining the boundaries of a possible consolidation range. A break below this consolidation could initiate a further decline towards 0.6600, potentially extending to 0.6555. The MACD indicator supports a bearish outlook in the short term, with the signal line peaking and poised for a downward trajectory.

In the hourly frame, AUD/USD has retraced from a recent low of 0.6696 to 0.6725, indicating a corrective phase. The anticipated continuation of this downtrend could see the pair targeting 0.6686 shortly. If this support holds, a rebound to 0.6725 could follow. The Stochastic oscillator indicates an overbought condition, with the signal line expected to move downwards from 80 to 20, supporting the potential for further declines.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Aug

The Bank of Japan is set to raise rates further. The Fed gov will speak at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole today

By JustMarkets

On Thursday, stocks in the US ended the session down. The Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.43%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.88%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative at 1.67% yesterday. The rise in bond yields on Thursday was negative for stocks. Hawkish comments from Kansas City Fed President Schmid pushed bond yields higher when he said he wanted to see more economic data before supporting any decision to cut interest rates, as demand could rise again if the Fed is not careful. On the other hand, Boston Fed President Colleen said she expects the Fed to begin easing interest rates soon and that a “gradual, methodical pace” of rate cuts would likely be appropriate. Also, Philadelphia Fed President Harker said that he is agreeable to an interest rate cut in September if data align with expectations and that a “slow, methodical approach to lowering rates is the right way to go.”

The US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 to 232,000, matching expectations. S&P’s US manufacturing PMI fell by 1.6 to 48.0, weaker than expectations of 49.5 and the lowest report in 8 months. US existing home sales for July rose by 1.3% m/m to 3.95 million, slightly stronger than expectations of 3.94 million. Today, markets await Fed Chair Powell’s opening comments at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for new insights on the Fed’s future policy path. Powell is expected to indicate a willingness to cut rates in September but will not specify the exact timing or size of the cut. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting at 100% and a 50 bps rate cut at 25%.

Bitcoin has held its recent rise to above $60,000, hitting its highest levels in three weeks. However, recent data showed that bitcoin inventories held by miners reached the highest level in two years. An increase in bitcoin inventories held by miners has historically been associated with falling prices, suggesting that miners may be preparing to sell large amounts of bitcoin.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.24%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.01%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.37%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed upv0.05%. The S&P Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for August from S&P fell by 0.2 to 45.6, weaker than expected. However, the Eurozone Composite PMI for August unexpectedly rose by 1.0 to 51.2, stronger than expectations for a decline to 50.1. The ECB reported that Eurozone wage growth fell to 3.6% y/y in Q2 from 4.7% y/y in Q1. The eurozone consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell by 0.4 to 13.4 in August, weaker than expectations of an increase to 12.6.

The ECB’s July 17-18 policy meeting summary states that “the September meeting was an appropriate time to reassess the level of monetary policy tightening, as new economic data and a new set of staff forecasts will emerge.” Swaps discount the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the September 12 meeting at 97%.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.68% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.35%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.44% over yesterday and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.21%.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) reiterated its commitment to raise interest rates if inflation steadily reaches its 2% target but realizes that markets at home and abroad remain volatile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament on Friday. He added that the central bank continues to monitor market volatility following its decision to raise borrowing costs in July. Ueda emphasized that the BoJ’s stance on adjusting the degree of monetary policy easing has not changed.

Singapore’s annual inflation rate in July 2024 was 2.4%, unchanged from the previous month, the lowest since August 2021, and below market forecasts of 2.5%. The annualized core inflation rate fell to 2.5% from 2.9% in the previous month, the lowest since February 2022, and fell short of forecasts of 2.9%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,570.64 −50.21 (−0.89%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,712.78 −177.71 (−0.43%)

DAX (DE40) 18,493.39 +44.44 (+0.24%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,288.00 +4.57 (+0.06%)

USD Index 101.52 +0.48 (+0.47%)

Important events today:

– New Zealand Retail Sales (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
– Jackson Hole Symposium at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

23 Aug

Week Ahead: Nvidia earnings showdown could set market tone

By ForexTime

Nvidia shares ↑150% year-to-date

Data center business and Q3 guidance in focus

Shares could move 10.4% ↑ or ↓ post earnings

Prices edging higher on H1 but RSI near oversold

Technical levels – $130, $119, 200 SMA and $110

Financial markets may end August with a bang thanks to key data and high-impact events.

Earnings from tech titan Nvidia and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge have the potential to set the tone for the new trading month:

Monday, 26th Aug

GER40: Germany IFO business climate
NGN: Nigeria GDP
SG20: Singapore industrial production
US500: US durable goods

Tuesday, 27th Aug

CN50: China industrial profits
GER40: Germany GDP
AU200: BHP, Woodside Energy earnings
US30: US Conference Board consumer confidence

Wednesday 28th Aug

AU200: Australia CPI
NAS100: Nvidia earnings
USDInd: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Thursday, 29th Aug

EU50: Eurozone consumer confidence
GER40: Germany CPI
SEK: Sweden GDP
US500: US GDP, initial jobless claims, Fed speak

Friday, 30th Aug

CHINAH: ICBC (China’s largest commercial bank) earnings
CAD: Canada GDP
EU50: Eurozone CPI, German unemployment
JP225: Japan unemployment, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales
US500: US PCE report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

The end of earnings season is near, and Nvidia now comes into sharp focus, after mostly disappointing results from the so-called Magnificent Seven.

When considering Nvidia’s central role in the AI boom, its upcoming earnings have the potential to shape market sentiment with investors undoubtedly looking for another round of outstanding results.

Fun fact: Nvidia shares are up roughly 150% since the start of 2024

When will earnings be published

Nvidia reports its earnings for the second quarter of its 2025 fiscal year after US markets close on Wednesday 28th August.

Market expectations

The tech giant is forecast to post earnings per share of $0.65 compared to $0.27 a year ago.

Quarterly revenues are expected to rise $28.7 billion from $13.5 billion in the prior year – representing a 112.6% increase.

Investors will also be paying close attention to the data center segment and whether earning guidance is raised for Q3.

As highlighted earlier, there is little room for error with exceptional results needed to justify its whopping $3 trillion valuation.

Potential challenges

Concerns over the Blackwell chip delay potentially weighing on the business outlook.

Increasing competition from the likes of AMD and Intel which are investing in their own AI chips.

Potential US bans hitting demand for Nvidia chips in China

How will Nvidia shares react to earnings

Markets are forecasting a 10.4% move, either Up or Down, for Nvidia stocks on Thursday post earnings.

This is equivalent to a move of roughly $300 billion, bigger than the entire market cap of many large companies in the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100.

How will wider markets be influenced?

Over the past 12 months, the Nasdaq 100 has shown a 74% positive correlation with Nvidia shares.

But more interestingly, over a rolling 5-day from the past 10 years:

US500: +97%

UK100: +53%

Intel Corp: +95%

Broadcom: +99%

Advanced Micro Devices: +90%

What does this mean?

Given how some US and European equities are trading near all-time highs, a positive set of results from Nvidia could mean fresh upside gains – opening the doors to more records.

Technical forces

Prices may continue to consolidate within a range until the earnings are published.

Still, Nvidia stocks have been trending higher on the H1 charts with prices above the 100 and 200- SMA. But weakness below the 50 SMA could signal a decline toward the 119.00 support regions. Keep an eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) index is edging towards oversold levels.

Key levels of interest can be found at $130, 119, 200 SMA and $110.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

23 Aug

Banana apocalypse, part 2 – a genomicist explains the tricky genetics of the fungus devastating bananas worldwide

By Li-Jun Ma, UMass Amherst

Did you know that the bananas you eat today are not the same type as the ones people were eating a few generations ago? The banana you might have had with your breakfast today is a variety called the Cavendish banana, while the one that was in grocery stores up to the 1950s was a variety called Gros Michel, which was wiped out by a disease called Fusarium wilt of banana, or FWB.

FWB of Gros Michel was caused by Fusarium oxysporum race 1, a fungal pathogen that affects bananas. This fungal infection kills a plant by occupying its vascular system, blocking water and mineral transportation.

Plant biologists developed the Fusarium-resistant Cavendish variety to replace the Gros Michel. Yet, over the past few decades, a resurgence of FWB caused by a different strain of the same fungus called tropical race 4, or TR4, is once again threatening global banana production.

How did Fusarium oxysporum gain the ability to overcome resistance and infect so many different plants?

The two-part genome of F. oxysporum

I am a genomicist who has spent the past decade studying the genetic evolution of Fusarium oxysporum. As a species complex, F. oxysporum can cause wilt and root rot diseases in over 120 plant species. Certain strains can also infect people.

In 2010, my lab discovered that each F. oxysporum genome can be divided into two parts: a core genome shared among all strains that codes for essential housekeeping functions, and an accessory genome varying from strain to strain that codes for specialized functions like the ability to infect a specific plant host.

Each species of plant has a sophisticated immune response to defend against microbial invasion. So to establish an infection, each F. oxysporum strain uses its accessory genome to suppress a plant’s unique defense system. This functional compartmentalization allows F. oxysporum to greatly increase its host range.

Petri dish with four red, oblong colonies crowing on separate corners — The genomic structure of *Fusarium oxysporum* allows it to have a wide range of hosts, such as tomatoes, cucumbers and watermelon.
Edward L. Barnard, Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Bugwood.org, CC BY-SA

In our newly published research, my team and colleagues in China and South Africa found that the TR4 strain that kills Cavendish bananas has a different evolutionary origin and different sequences in its accessory genome compared with the strain that killed Gros Michel bananas.

Looking at the interface of where the TR4 strain is battling with its Cavendish banana host, we found that some of its activated accessory genes release nitric oxide, a gas harmful to the Cavendish banana. This sudden burst of toxic gases facilitates infection by disarming the plant’s defense system. At the same time, the fungus protects itself by increasing production of chemicals that detoxify nitric oxide.

Increasing banana diversity

In tracing the global spread of this new version of Fusarium oxysporum, we realized that a major cause for the recent resurgence of this fungal infection is the domination of the international banana industry by a single clone of banana.

Growing different varieties of bananas can make agriculture more sustainable and reduce disease pressure on a single crop. Farmers and researchers can control Fusarium wilt of banana by identifying or developing banana varieties that are tolerant or resistant to TR4. Our findings suggest that another way to protect Cavendish bananas would be to design effective nitric oxide scavengers to reduce the toxic pressure of the gas burst.

The banana industry has dark origins.

It can be hard to imagine how a consumer who simply enjoys eating bananas could participate in the battle against the disease devastating banana crops. However, consumers determine the market, and farmers are forced to grow what the market demands.

You can help increase banana diversity in your supermarket by intentionally trying one or more of the other hundreds of other existing banana varieties when they show up there. You can also buy local varieties of other fruits and agricultural products to help preserve plant diversity and support local growers.

Collaboration among scientists, farmers, industry and consumers around the world can help avoid future shortages of bananas and other crops.

About the Author:

Li-Jun Ma, Professor of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, UMass Amherst

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

22 Aug

Thailand’s democracy has taken another hit, but the country’s progressive forces won’t be stopped

By Adam Simpson, University of South Australia

After two tumultuous weeks in Thai politics, the country has a new prime minister and new opposition party in parliament. The sweeping changes have demonstrated yet again the power of the Constitutional Court over Thailand’s fragile democratic institutions.

The political intrigue began on August 7 when the court dissolved the progressive Move Forward Party, the main opposition party in parliament following its surprising showing in the 2023 national elections.

Two days later, the party reconstituted itself as the People’s Party and announced it would continue to lead the opposition.

Then, on August 14, the Constitutional Court disqualified Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin of the Pheu Thai party from holding the post, and removed him from office.

And two days after that decision, the parliament duly elected Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra as his replacement. She is the third member of her family to serve as prime minister after her father, Thaksin Shinawatra (2001–06), and aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra (2011–14).

Unfortunately, these kinds of incidents have become normalised in Thailand. They demonstrate the extent to which conservative forces in the country continue to use various tools of “lawfare”, including the Constitutional Court, to target opposition politicians and parties and stifle the will of the people.

Despite these setbacks to Thailand’s democracy, the country is changing fast. It is becoming more progressive and less submissive to military and monarchy authority.

So, these latest manoeuvres by the country’s gerontocracy may not be a show of strength after all. Rather, as one Thai politics expert put it, these moves may be the “last gasp” of the conservative old guard that has long dominated Thai politics and society.

Revolving door of prime ministers

Over the last two decades, five prime ministers from the Pheu Thai party and its predecessors have been forced from office.

Thaksin Shinawatra was removed in a military coup in September 2006 and his party was later dissolved by the Constitutional Court.

Yingluck Shinatwatra led another successor party to a win at the 2011 elections, but she, too, was removed from power by the Constitutional Court in 2014, followed by another military coup.

With Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s elevation to prime minister last week, the powerful Shinawatra family has made a stunning return to the top of Thai politics. However, this may not be quite the triumphant re-establishment of a family political dynasty that Thaksin Shinawatra expects.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra is just 37 years old and inexperienced. And despite the fact the economy showed some growth in the first quarter of this year, her government faces significant economic challenges, such as high levels of household and corporate debt and an economic slowdown in the US and China.

Thaksin Shinawatra also remains in the cross-hairs of the conservative military establishment. After spending 15 years in self-imposed exile to avoid facing charges he contends were politically motivated, he returned to Thailand last year after Pheu Thai took power.

He was then indicted in June for allegedly insulting the monarchy during a media interview in 2015.

Another new progressive party dissolved

Perhaps the more concerning development in recent days, however, was the Constitutional Court’s decision to dissolve the progressive Move Forward party, which had won the most seats in parliament in last year’s election.

Progressive politicians have fallen afoul of the court a number of times in recent years.

In the 2019 elections, for example, Future Forward, a brand new progressive political party led by a young, charismatic politician, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, stunned observers by winning 80 seats. The court, however, soon disqualified Thanathorn from parliament and dissolved the party.

The party reconstituted itself as Move Forward under the leadership of another young leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, and it did even better in the 2023 elections, winning 151 seats in the House of Representatives.

The court, however, suspended Pita and dissolved his party over its attempts to reform the anti-democratic lese majeste law. It also banned the party’s leadership, including Pita, from politics for ten years.

The party’s remaining MPs will be able to stay in parliament under the banner of the People’s Party, though nearly 40 are now under investigation for alleged ethics violations, including its new leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut.

What does this mean for Thai democracy?

There now appear to be three distinct centres of political power in Thailand:

Thaksin Shinawatra and the Pheu Thai party
the military-monarchy complex and their associated parties
the new progressive People’s Party.

While Pita warned against the continued use of “lawfare” to muzzle the opposition in an essay for The Economist earlier this month, there is some room for optimism.

It appears much of the population has moved on from the nepotism and rampant self-interest that has long defined Thai politics. According to a recent poll, nearly half of respondents said their preferred prime minister would be Pita (47%), while Paetongtarn was favoured by just 10.5% and Srettha just 8.7%.

The People’s Party is also offering a much more democratic vision for Thailand, based on integrity and reforming the lese majeste law. (Its leader, Natthaphong, has acknowledged, though, that the party must now “think carefully about how to amend it”.)

The party’s electoral march towards government looks difficult to stop. It’s likely Move Forward’s win in the 2023 election will turn into a landslide for the People’s Party at the next election.

The historical obedience and submission to the monarchy and military in Thai society is gradually being whittled away, as older, conservative voters are being replaced by those who want a more democratic and responsive government.

In recent years, there has also been some improvement in Thailand for personal freedoms — notably the legalisation of same-sex marriage and cannabis. The pressure to expand and consolidate basic political freedoms within a multi-party democracy will only increase.

Thailand is not an authoritarian regime – unlike its neighbours Myanmar and Laos – and at some point in the not-too-distant future, the rapidly changing Thai society may well force the military-monarchy complex to cede power for good.

About the Author:

Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South Australia

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

22 Aug

The dovish FOMC minutes supported the growth of indices. The Australian index has been growing for 10 consecutive trading sessions

By JustMarkets

Stocks in the US ended the session higher on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.14%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.42%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive, 0.57% yesterday. Stocks rose on Wednesday after a significant downward revision to US payrolls data and a dovish FOMC meeting minutes from July 30-31 drove bond yields lower and reinforced the likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates next month. The minutes from the July 30-31 FOMC meeting said that “a few” officials considered cutting interest rates at the July meeting, but the “overwhelming majority” of officials thought a rate cut in September was likely. Markets now await Fed Chairman Powell’s opening comments on Friday at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for more clues about the Fed’s future policy path.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised the US employment numbers for the year to March downward by 818,000, stronger than expectations of 600,000 and the largest downward revision since 2009. The report was dovish for Fed policy, pointing to a weaker US labor market than initially reported.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.50%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.52% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.24%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.12%.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.7% to $71.9 per barrel on Wednesday, settling at their lowest level since January, as investors reacted to the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes and a significant downward revision to estimates of US job growth. Oil declined despite a drop in US crude inventories, which fell by 4.6 million barrels in the week ended August 16, exceeding analysts’ expectations. In addition, concerns over economic weakness in China could reduce the demand for crude oil and put further pressure on oil prices.

Asian markets traded yesterday without any unified dynamics. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.29%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost -0.69% over yesterday, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.16%.

The ASX 200 Index (AU200) gained 0.21%, extending its winning streak to a tenth session, as good Australian business activity data boosted market sentiment. Australia’s composite PMI rose to 51.4 in August from 49.9 in July. This is the fastest rise in three months, driven by a pickup in service sector activity despite a deeper contraction in manufacturing output.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate for July 2024 stood at 2.0%, just below market expectations of 2.1%, and unchanged for the third consecutive month. The reading remained at its highest level since August 2023, with prices continuing to rise for food (1.6% vs. 2.0% in June), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (0.9% vs. 0.7%), and housing (3.2% vs. 3.2%). Core consumer prices, excluding volatile fresh food prices and administrative costs, rose 1.9% y/y in June, holding steady for a fourth month and remaining at the highest level since December 2023.

Au Jibun Bank’s Japan Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in August 2024 from a four-month low of 49.1 in the previous month, compared with the market forecast of 49.8. Preliminary estimates showed a second consecutive month of contraction in factory activity. It also marked the sixth consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector this year, driven by a further decline in new orders.

As expected, the Bank of Korea kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5% for the 13th time at its August meeting. The decision came amid conflicting economic signals, with inflation falling but household debt rising and housing prices soaring after recent government measures. The council noted that short-term inflation expectations have fallen to the upper end of the 2% range. Meanwhile, this year, consumer inflation could reach the lower end of the 2% range, with an annualized rate of 2.5%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,620.85 +23.73 (+0.42%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,890.49 +55.52 (+0.14%)

DAX (DE40) 18,448.95 +91.43 (+0.50%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,283.43 +10.11 (+0.12%)

USD index 101.16 −0.28 (−0.28%)

Important events today:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Jackson Hole Symposium at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

22 Aug

USDJPY: Waits on BoJ and Fed chief remarks

By ForexTime

USDJPY ↓ 3% month-to-date

Ueda testimony + Powell speech in focus

Prices heavily bearish but RSI near oversold

Bloomberg FX model: 73% – (142.70 – 148.67)

Key technical level: 145.00

Check this out. The USDJPY could see big price swings on Friday!

That’s right, remarks by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are likely to inject the currency pair for fresh volatility.

With prices already hovering around a daily support level, the incoming risk events may trigger a possible breakout or technical bounce.

USDJPY1

The lowdown…

The USDJPY has witnessed heavy selloffs over the past few weeks thanks to a hawkish BoJ and dovish Federal Reserve. Bears are certainly in power due to the divergence in the policy outlook between both central banks.

Since hitting a multi-decade top at 161.950, the currency pair has tumbled roughly 10%.

USDJPY w1

With all the above said, here are 3 things you need to keep an eye on:

1) BoJ Governor Ueda testimony

Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to be grilled by lawmakers on Friday after the BoJ’s hawkish signals contributed to the global market selloff earlier this month.

Note: The BoJ raised interest rates at its July 2024 meeting to 0.25%.
This triggered the unwinding of the “carry trade” which allows investors to borrow the Yen cheaply and use that money to buy higher-yield assets – for example US shares.
Rising rates in Japan increased borrowing costs, ultimately triggering a selloff across global markets as investors dumped shares to raise cash to service interest rate repayments.

Given the market sensitivity to interest rate expectations, Ueda must strike a neutral tone to prevent any shocks.

If he sounds too hawkish, this may strengthen the Yen and boost bets around the BoJ hiking rates. Should this result in the further unwinding of the carry trade, global markets could take a hit.

However, if he comes across as too dovish – the yen may weaken – pushing the USDJPY higher.

Note: It will be wise to keep an eye on the incoming Japan CPI figures also published on Friday, something that may impact bets around what actions the BoJ take over the next few months.

2) Jackson Hole: Powell speech

As covered in our week ahead report, Powell’s big speech on Friday could rock global markets. He is expected to signal that a September cut is on the table with traders already pricing in a 25-basis point reduction next month.

Any fresh clues around what the Fed plans to do for the rest of 2024 may impact Fed cut expectations. Ultimately, the USDJPY’s outlook may be influenced by what’s said or not during Powell’s highly anticipated speech on Friday.

Should Powell strike a firmly dovish note, this may send the USDJPY lower.

If the central bank head is not as dovish as markets expect, the USDJPY may rebound.

3) Technical forces

Prices remain under pressure on the daily charts as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Although the candlesticks are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA, the Relative Strength Index is flirting near oversold territory.

A solid breakdown and daily close below 145.00 may encourage a decline toward 143.70 and 141.50.

Should 145.00 prove to be reliable support, this could trigger a rebound toward 147.70 and 149.30.

USDJPY2

Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 73% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 142.70 – 148.67 range over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Aug

Recycling more than pop cans: A circular economy for our energy landscapes

By Martin J. Pasqualetti, Arizona State University; Chad Walker, Dalhousie University, and Michelle Adams, Dalhousie University

From cereal boxes to our distinct milk bags, Canadians have been told that one of the best things we can do for the planet is to embrace the circular economy — reusing, repurposing or reallocating assets to ensure they’re kept within useful circulation as long as possible, and ideally forever.

Originally conceptualized as recycling, we are all familiar with the good feeling that comes from tossing paper, plastic and other materials into the blue bin rather than throwing them in a landfill. It’s time to consider applying an expanded version of this approach to what we call energy landscapes.

Considering the thousands of square kilometres that we have carved, scraped and bulldozed to produce the energy we crave, it is past time we started figuring out how we can recycle energy landscapes and make them useful for new purposes.

In our over-crowded world, we can no longer justify exploiting our landscapes for the energy we need and then simply walking away. We need to embrace a circular economy for our energy landscapes of the past and prepare to recycle the landscapes of the future.

Recycling landscapes

Recycling of energy landscapes comes to two forms; that is, the land itself and the infrastructure we place upon it.

Although rare in Canada, the idea is quickly catching on elsewhere. Lignite pits in Germany have been converted to recreational lakes. A derelict, coal-burning power plant in London has been transformed into an exhibition, condominiums and retail space.

In Nova Scotia, a 14 MW wind farm was developed at the site of the province’s coal-fired Lingan power station, and newly proposed green hydrogen production facilities are to be built on the land of stalled liquefied natural gas projects.

The idea of recycling or reusing applies not just to fossil fuels, but to renewable energy policies as well.

Last summer, the Conservative government of Alberta made decisions on the future land use of renewable energy projects like wind and solar farms. As outlined by academic Ian Urquhart earlier this year, the government’s seven-month moratorium banned all new projects under the rationale they threatened the province’s best agricultural lands and “Alberta’s pristine landscapes.”

However, the restrictions brought in, including a 35-kilometre buffer zone, do not apply to new oil and gas projects. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s government therefore created a unique set of recycling concerns around renewables that didn’t apply to fossil fuels.

Reusing space in an energy transition

At a time when more local smart grid projects — bringing together local renewables, battery storage, smart controls, heat pumps and electric vehicles — are being developed, there’s a need to consider how to go beyond recycling to reuse existing space and infrastructure.

Rooftop solar is an obvious choice to better utilize space, though the footprint of household and on-street EV charging infrastructure is similarly unsubstantial compared to your neighbourhood gas station.

Recycling in a clean energy transition will not only have great value in energy landscapes, but also in new clean energy technologies themselves. While we are already slowing the rise of climate change-fuelling emissions, we can go further if we advance the practice of recycling EV batteries and solar panels.

But we can’t stop there. We must also prepare to recycle the landscapes these technologies create.

Abandonment is not an option

Abandoning exhausted energy sites is wasteful, unnecessary and costly. The customary energy life cycle includes exploration, development, extraction, processing, transmission and sometimes reclamation. We advocate for an additional stage: recycling, thus preparing the land to be reimagined for another cycle of useful purpose.

We must take greater care of the precious Canadian landscape, especially those that have paid dearly to provide the energy we need. Once the land gives all it can, we should consider it not the end of the life cycle but as a new beginning.

Recycling energy landscapes as a strategy challenges the status quo. We must chart a path toward ensuring that such landscapes are repurposed to benefit both ecosystems and society, and embrace a circular economy for the land.

About the Authors:

Martin J. Pasqualetti, Professor of Geography and Senior Global Futures Scientist, Arizona State University; Chad Walker, Assistant professor, Low-carbon Transitions, School of Planning, Dalhousie University, and Michelle Adams, Associate professor, School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

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