InvestMacro

Speculator Extremes: AUD, CAD, Steel, Natural Gas, Cocoa & Sugar lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on March 3rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the AUD speculator level maintaining a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 47 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 67,762 net contracts this week with a boost by 15,118 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in second for the extreme standings this week. The CAD speculator level is now at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a rise by 28 percentage points this week while the speculator position registered 21,050 net contracts this week with a weekly change of -6,528 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings as the Steel speculator level resides at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a dip by -2 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 11,298 net contracts this week with a decline of -526 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decrease by -5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 161 net contracts this week with a dip of -503 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Soybeans speculator level sits at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost by 36 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 221,902 net contracts this week with an increase of 11,630 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week with he Natural Gas speculator level sitting at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -8 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -206,422 net contracts this week with a change of -7,903 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cocoa speculator level is at just a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change this week while the speculator position was -17,830 net contracts this week with a change of -4,550 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the Sugar speculator level resides at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -13 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -245,034 net contracts this week with a small gain of 1,089 contracts in the speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The GBP speculator level is at a 9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -22 percentage points this week and the speculator position was a total of -72,686 net contracts with a drop of -15,614 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Next, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week with the 2-Year speculator level sitting at just a 14 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction by -11 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -1,338,541 net contracts this week with a small gain of 9,495 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions

07 Mar

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Silver, Gold & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver, Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (1,078 contracts) with Gold (968 contracts) and Platinum (592 contracts) also showing modestly positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-759 contracts), Steel (-526 contracts) and with Palladium (-503 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Steel leads Metal Markets price performance this week

Steel had the highest five-day price change for the Metals Markets this week with a 2.67% gain. Gold was lower by -2.09% and Copper was down by -3.34% over the past five days. Palladium saw a sharp decline by -8.78% and was followed by Platinum which saw a -9.85% drop. The biggest decliner on the week was Silver with a -10.23% shortfall.

The cool-off in the Metals Markets can be seen over the past thirty days returns with only Steel (17.72%) and Gold (4.81%) having higher price returns over the past thirty days while Copper (-0.08%), Palladium( -19.67%), Platinum (-23.28%), and Silver (-12.84%) all have now moved into negative territory over the past thirty days.

Over the past ninety days, all six of our Metal Markets are up by at least 12% with Copper being the lowest gainer with a 12.79% gain over the past ninety days while Silver still leads with a 72.63% rise over the past ninety days. Steel (43.06%), Platinum (33.63%), Gold (25.43%) and Palladium (16.12%) are still seeing strong returns over the past 90-days as well.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel, Palladium & Copper

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (95 percent) and Palladium (93 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (87 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (36 percent) and Gold (36 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently followed by Platinum (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (36.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.0 percent)
Silver (35.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (34.3 percent)
Copper (87.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (87.7 percent)
Platinum (45.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (44.1 percent)
Palladium (93.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (96.3 percent)
Steel (94.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (97.3 percent)

Copper tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-5 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-34.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-37.7 percent)
Silver (-2.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.3 percent)
Copper (4.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (4.7 percent)
Platinum (-3.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-10.9 percent)
Palladium (-4.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-3.7 percent)
Steel (-1.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (4.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 160,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 159,177 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.2	20.7	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	69.6	3.6
– Net Position:	160,145	-200,583	40,438
– Gross Longs:	213,752	84,834	55,126
– Gross Shorts:	53,607	285,417	14,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.4	55.8	84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.7	35.7	-13.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 23,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	27.3	23.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	62.5	8.3
– Net Position:	23,338	-39,966	16,628
– Gross Longs:	34,226	30,893	26,079
– Gross Shorts:	10,888	70,859	9,451
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.9	59.9	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	8.4	-25.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 57,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.4	34.9	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	63.4	3.4
– Net Position:	57,681	-69,744	12,063
– Gross Longs:	89,103	85,481	20,481
– Gross Shorts:	31,422	155,225	8,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.0	10.3	76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-0.5	-23.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,832 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	29.2	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	58.0	4.0
– Net Position:	13,832	-20,270	6,438
– Gross Longs:	31,579	20,451	9,257
– Gross Shorts:	17,747	40,721	2,819
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	54.2	72.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	3.9	-2.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 664 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.3	33.8	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.3	44.0	6.5
– Net Position:	161	-1,631	1,470
– Gross Longs:	7,768	5,446	2,519
– Gross Shorts:	7,607	7,077	1,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.0	7.7	70.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	6.9	-13.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -526 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,824 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	59.2	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.7	92.0	0.3
– Net Position:	11,298	-11,714	416
– Gross Longs:	13,321	21,158	519
– Gross Shorts:	2,023	32,872	103
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	5.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.6	5.3	88.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	1.9	-1.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

07 Mar

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (119,513 contracts) with the Fed Funds (49,366 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (24,793 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (15,191 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (9,495 contracts) also showed a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-89,757 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-25,863 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-15,481 contracts) and with the SOFR 1-Month (-4,108 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Bond Markets Price Performances were lower across the board this week

The Fed Funds was the only market this week that did not see a dip in price performance as the Fed Funds were approximately unchanged on the week. The one-month Secured Overnight Financing Rate was lower by -0.01%, while the three-month Secured Overnight Financing Rate was also lower by -0.01%.

The 2-Year Bond fell by -0.55% on the week, while the 5-Year Bond was lower by -1.09% and the 10-Year Note was down by -1.58%. The long US Treasury Bond was the largest decliner on the week with a drop lower by -2.5%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (90 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (75 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (15 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was the 5-Year Bonds (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (26.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (14.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (27.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (29.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (58.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (44.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (71.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (95.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (90.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (85.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (75.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (66.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (46.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (47.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (18.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (19.4 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (24 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-12 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (-11 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-11.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-38.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (-11.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-4.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (24.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (52.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (15.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (1.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (16.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (17.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-9.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-12.5 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -160,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 49,366 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -209,611 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	67.4	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	59.7	1.3
– Net Position:	-160,245	139,115	21,130
– Gross Longs:	227,008	1,224,038	45,288
– Gross Shorts:	387,253	1,084,923	24,158
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.1	64.7	90.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	11.6	1.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -778,512 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -763,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	57.4	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	51.6	0.4
– Net Position:	-778,512	765,404	13,108
– Gross Longs:	1,729,384	7,557,162	64,763
– Gross Shorts:	2,507,896	6,791,758	51,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	81.2	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	9.0	6.9

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -177,288 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,108 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -173,180 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	60.0	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	46.2	0.0
– Net Position:	-177,288	177,472	-184
– Gross Longs:	298,453	767,910	160
– Gross Shorts:	475,741	590,438	344
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.8	53.2	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-16.8	-0.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,338,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,495 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,348,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	75.5	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	48.1	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,338,541	1,232,909	105,632
– Gross Longs:	666,377	3,393,548	238,612
– Gross Shorts:	2,004,918	2,160,639	132,980
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	88.6	41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	13.2	-1.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,090,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -25,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,064,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	81.9	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.4	53.2	4.3
– Net Position:	-2,090,794	1,942,942	147,852
– Gross Longs:	510,662	5,547,849	438,288
– Gross Shorts:	2,601,456	3,604,907	290,436
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	71.3	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-2.5	0.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -654,507 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 119,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -774,020 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	77.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	66.3	7.3
– Net Position:	-654,507	620,305	34,202
– Gross Longs:	611,965	4,244,872	431,657
– Gross Shorts:	1,266,472	3,624,567	397,455
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.5	47.9	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	6.6	-19.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -145,020 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -89,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	78.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	68.9	13.3
– Net Position:	-145,020	238,200	-93,180
– Gross Longs:	243,446	1,948,642	237,999
– Gross Shorts:	388,466	1,710,442	331,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.0	38.1	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.4	-30.7	19.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	70.3	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	79.2	6.0
– Net Position:	20,265	-163,455	143,190
– Gross Longs:	212,313	1,289,561	253,391
– Gross Shorts:	192,048	1,453,016	110,201
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.4	3.3	80.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.1	-18.0	18.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -255,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -280,487 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	83.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	72.6	7.8
– Net Position:	-255,694	241,965	13,729
– Gross Longs:	152,514	1,860,020	187,508
– Gross Shorts:	408,208	1,618,055	173,779
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.3	34.8	29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-4.3	8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

07 Mar

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by Brent Oil & Heating Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil & Heating Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets through Tuesday was Brent Oil (22,025 contracts) with Heating Oil (824 contracts) also having a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-7,903 contracts), Gasoline (-6,975 contracts), the Bloomberg Index (-1,650 contracts) and with WTI Crude (-562 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Oil Markets lead Price Performance this week as all 6 Markets saw strong gains on Iran War

Leading the Energy markets this week was WTI Crude Oil, which jumped by approximately 33% over the last five days due to the Iran war. Following next was Heating Oil, which also jumped by over 30%. And Brent Crude Oil was not to be outdone with a gain of 26.17% over that period. Gasoline rose sharply by 20% in the past five days, while Natural Gas was up by 10.73%, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose by a strong 8.69%.

These sharp increases in the past week have now pushed all of these six Energy markets higher over the past 30 days and over the past 90 days, with the exception of Natural Gas, which is down by -5.06% in the past 30 days and is also lower by -1.70% in the past 90 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gasoline & Heating Oil

On the downside, Natural Gas (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was the Bloomberg Commodity Index (40.8 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (42.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (42.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (42.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (10.6 percent)
Natural Gas (0.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (5.1 percent)
Gasoline (88.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (96.2 percent)
Heating Oil (66.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (65.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (40.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (48.6 percent)

WTI Crude & Gasoline top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that WTI Crude (30.1 percent) and Gasoline (23.2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

The Bloomberg Index (-38.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Natural Gas (-8.3 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (30.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (36.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (20.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-22.3 percent)
Natural Gas (-8.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-8.3 percent)
Gasoline (23.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (29.0 percent)
Heating Oil (2.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (3.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-38.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-31.0 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 172,150 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -562 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.1	40.7	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	51.4	1.9
– Net Position:	172,150	-222,327	50,177
– Gross Longs:	355,158	842,957	89,225
– Gross Shorts:	183,008	1,065,284	39,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.7	48.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.1	-38.3	63.0

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,493 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	39.5	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	29.4	2.6
– Net Position:	-27,468	25,400	2,068
– Gross Longs:	64,040	99,338	8,498
– Gross Shorts:	91,508	73,938	6,430
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	58.1	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-20.7	-14.1

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -206,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -198,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	37.8	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	26.4	2.5
– Net Position:	-206,422	184,360	22,062
– Gross Longs:	210,477	607,907	62,972
– Gross Shorts:	416,899	423,547	40,910
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	1.5	26.9

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 91,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 98,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	42.8	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.7	68.2	2.9
– Net Position:	91,817	-104,850	13,033
– Gross Longs:	111,324	177,263	25,236
– Gross Shorts:	19,507	282,113	12,203
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	6.9	96.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.2	-25.7	26.3

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 17,655 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	45.4	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	59.1	7.3
– Net Position:	17,655	-42,602	24,947
– Gross Longs:	56,514	140,463	47,560
– Gross Shorts:	38,859	183,065	22,613
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.7	26.0	86.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-9.2	22.0

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -14,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,384 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	66.9	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	60.5	0.0
– Net Position:	-14,034	13,355	679
– Gross Longs:	66,250	140,036	759
– Gross Shorts:	80,284	126,681	80
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	9.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	58.1	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.9	39.2	1.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

07 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (81,231 contracts) with Soybean Meal (21,920 contracts), Soybeans (11,630 contracts), Lean Hogs (6,052 contracts), Soybean Oil (3,752 contracts), Sugar (1,089 contracts) and Cotton (873 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-9,920 contracts), Cocoa (-4,550 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,896 contracts) and with Coffee (-2,014 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soybean Oil leads the Soft Commodities price performance this week

Leading the soft commodities price performance this week was Soybean Oil with a strong 7.13% gain over the past five days. Coffee rose this week by 4.67%, followed by Wheat, which rose by 4.61%. Corn was higher by 3.64%. Soybeans were up by 2.54%, and Sugar was higher by approximately 2% on the week. Live Cattle was up by 1.77%, and Lean Hogs advanced by 0.32%.

On the downside, the biggest loser on the week was Soybean Meal with a -3.78% decline, followed by Cotton, which dipped by -2.28%. And Cocoa was virtually unchanged with a small decline of -0.26%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybeans & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybeans (93 percent) and Soybean Oil (86 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Wheat (82 percent), Lean Hogs (80 percent) and Soybean Meal (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (1 percent) and Sugar (2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Cotton (22 percent) and the Coffee (34 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (48.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (37.4 percent)
Sugar (1.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.4 percent)
Coffee (34.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (36.0 percent)
Soybeans (92.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (90.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (86.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (83.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (65.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (56.3 percent)
Live Cattle (64.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (68.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (79.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (75.3 percent)
Cotton (22.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.8 percent)
Cocoa (1.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.3 percent)
Wheat (81.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (90.5 percent)

Wheat & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (60 percent) and Soybean Oil (40 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (39 percent), Soybeans (36 percent) and Corn (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-13 percent) following next with a lower trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (19.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.8 percent)
Sugar (-12.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-15.1 percent)
Coffee (-19.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-20.0 percent)
Soybeans (36.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (39.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (54.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (39.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-1.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (5.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (19.7 percent)
Cotton (-1.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.5 percent)
Wheat (60.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (62.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 90,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a huge weekly increase of 81,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	45.6	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	49.3	10.1
– Net Position:	90,059	-59,782	-30,277
– Gross Longs:	336,624	738,095	132,844
– Gross Shorts:	246,565	797,877	163,121
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	48.1	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-19.4	-16.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -245,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -246,123 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	53.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	29.2	7.8
– Net Position:	-245,034	251,319	-6,285
– Gross Longs:	193,313	557,892	75,220
– Gross Shorts:	438,347	306,573	81,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.6	97.6	23.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	10.2	6.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,800 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	42.5	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	48.9	4.1
– Net Position:	10,800	-10,840	40
– Gross Longs:	47,704	72,071	7,071
– Gross Shorts:	36,904	82,911	7,031
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	67.7	18.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.0	18.7	-5.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 221,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,630 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 210,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	42.3	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	61.5	8.2
– Net Position:	221,902	-188,859	-33,043
– Gross Longs:	303,059	418,119	48,014
– Gross Shorts:	81,157	606,978	81,057
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.9	9.4	13.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.3	-34.1	-44.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 73,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	46.0	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	58.0	3.7
– Net Position:	73,189	-85,779	12,590
– Gross Longs:	169,509	327,390	39,288
– Gross Shorts:	96,320	413,169	26,698
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.1	13.5	81.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.7	-43.4	60.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 72,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 21,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	47.8	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	65.2	5.3
– Net Position:	72,755	-90,226	17,471
– Gross Longs:	143,508	249,235	45,080
– Gross Shorts:	70,753	339,461	27,609
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.3	35.7	42.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.1	-41.0	16.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 87,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,896 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.9	29.8	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	51.6	12.0
– Net Position:	87,850	-74,493	-13,357
– Gross Longs:	146,655	102,033	27,700
– Gross Shorts:	58,805	176,526	41,057
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	31.5	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	3.6	-5.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 74,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,918 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	29.5	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	46.9	8.0
– Net Position:	74,970	-65,300	-9,670
– Gross Longs:	152,501	111,253	20,445
– Gross Shorts:	77,531	176,553	30,115
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.6	24.0	19.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.3	-12.4	-14.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.2	42.2	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	34.7	3.6
– Net Position:	-28,097	24,523	3,574
– Gross Longs:	112,260	138,605	15,326
– Gross Shorts:	140,357	114,082	11,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.4	75.8	48.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	0.6	8.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -17,830 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	47.1	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	38.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-17,830	16,480	1,350
– Gross Longs:	41,974	90,280	10,890
– Gross Shorts:	59,804	73,800	9,540
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.0	98.0	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-2.0	20.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,008 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	32.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.0	26.7	7.7
– Net Position:	-26,008	27,472	-1,464
– Gross Longs:	121,504	146,569	32,849
– Gross Shorts:	147,512	119,097	34,313
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	15.5	45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	60.1	-63.0	-25.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

06 Mar

Week Ahead: Dollar set to tighten grip on FX throne?

By ForexTime

FXTM’s USDInd ↑ 2% MTD
Dollar best performing G10 currency MTD
Geopolitical risk + US CPI combo = fresh volatility?
Over past year US CPI decision triggered moves of ↑ 0.2% & ↓ 0.6%
Technical levels: 98.00, 99.00 and 100.00

Global markets have been thrown into turmoil due to the deepening conflict in the Middle East.

As the confrontation between the US, Israel and Iran rages on, investor sentiment remains fragile with fears intensifying of a wider conflict in the region.

Mounting geopolitical risk and top-tier data could provide fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead:

Monday, 9th March

CN50: China PPI, CPI
EUR: Germany industrial production
TWN: Taiwan trade

Tuesday, 10th March

AUD: Australia Westpac consumer confidence
JPY: Japan GDP, money stock
EUR: EU finance ministers meet in Brussels to discuss policy
ZAR: South Africa GDP
Saudi Aramco earnings.

Wednesday, 11th March

EUR: Germany CPI
JPY: Japan PPI
USDInd: US CPI, federal budget balance

Thursday, 12th March

ZAR: South Africa manufacturing production
USDInd: US housing starts, trade, initial jobless claims
GBP: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech

Friday, 13th June

CAD: Canada unemployment
EUR: Eurozone industrial production
NZD: New Zealand BusinessNZ manufacturing PMI
GBP: UK industrial production, trade balance
USDInd: US consumer income, PCE price index, GDP, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

The spotlight shines on FXTM’s USDInd which has surged on safe haven flows as investors scrambled to price in the chaos.

Note: FXTM’s USDInd measures how the dollar performs against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar, Swedish krona & Swiss franc.

Here is how they are weighted:

Euro: 57.6%
JPY: 13.6%
GBP: 11.9%
CAD: 9.1%
SEK: 4.2%
CHF: 3.6%

Geopolitical conflict and key US data could spell fresh volatility for the USDInd.

Here are 4 reasons why:

1. US-Israel war with Iran

The ongoing US-Israeli offensive against Iran has jolted financial markets, sparking a wave of risk aversion.

This has sent investors sprinting toward safe-haven destinations, including the US dollar.

Should the situation worsen and risk spilling over into a wider conflict, the dollar may be boosted further by safe-haven flows.

Signs of easing tensions may boost the market mood, weakening the dollar as appetite for safe-haven assets cools.

2. US CPI + PCE combo

The latest US inflation reports are likely to shape expectations around the Fed’s future policy moves.

Wednesday 11th March – US Feb CPI
CPI year-on-year (Feb 2025 vs. Feb 2026) to rise 2.5%

———————————————————————————————————

Friday 13th March – US Jan PCE – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
Core PCE year-on-year to rise 3.1% from 3.0%.

This week alone, aggressively rising energy prices have raised inflationary fears – forcing markets to push back against bets around lower US rates.

The USDInd could jump if the incoming inflation reports reveal signs of rising price pressures.
Any signs of cooling prices pressures may support the argument around lower US rates.

Over the past 12 months, the US CPI has triggered upside moves on the USDInd of as much as 0.2% or declines of 0.6% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Traders are currently pricing a 60% chance that the Fed cuts rates at least twice in 2025.

3. Europe data dump

A string of key data across Europe including, German industrial production and CPI could influence sentiment toward the European economy and the Euro.

It is worth noting that the EUR makes up roughly 58% of the USDInd weight.

Stronger than expected data from Europe may weigh on the USDInd as the euro appreciates.
Disappointing data from Europe could boost the USDInd as the euro weakens.

4. Technical forces

FXTM’s USDInd is pushing higher on the daily charts. However, the Relative Strength Index is close to 70 – signalling that prices are nearly overbought.

A solid breakout and weekly close above 99.00 could signal a move back toward 100.00 and 100.50.
Sustained weakness below 99.00 could see price decline back toward the 200-day SMA and the 50-day SMA at 98.00.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

06 Mar

Investors run to safe-haven assets amid Middle East escalation

By JustMarkets

The US stock market concluded Thursday’s session in the red as the escalating Middle East conflict pushed WTI oil prices above $80 per barrel. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.61%. The S&P 500 (US500) shed 0.56%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed down 0.29%. Fearing stagflation and new logistical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, investors actively offloaded industrial sector holdings. Simultaneously, the financial sector faced massive sell-offs; banking giants Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lost between 3% and 3.7% in value amid volatile bond yields. The current dynamics reflect growing market pessimism regarding global economic growth prospects during a prolonged confrontation. The combination of inflationary pressure and the threat of energy shortages is forcing traders to reassess their portfolios.

European markets demonstrated a broad decline on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) dropped 1.61%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.49%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.38%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished down 1.45%. Ongoing strikes between Iran and Israel on infrastructure targets in the Persian Gulf are provoking an uncontrolled surge in resource prices. The spike in natural gas prices was particularly painful for European equities, pushing bond yields higher and triggering a new wave of sell-offs in the banking sector, where shares of giants like Santander and Deutsche Bank fell nearly 3%. Investors seriously fear that a protracted conflict and energy shock will lead to industrial stagnation in Europe, forcing them to rotate capital from cyclical stocks into defensive instruments.

Benchmark oil prices made a powerful leap, gaining over 8% and consolidating above $80 per barrel – a level not seen since the summer of 2024. The rally was driven by a critical breakdown in global supply chains following the near-total halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after an Iranian missile attack on a commercial vessel. The situation was further exacerbated by Beijing’s decision to ban its largest refineries from exporting diesel and gasoline, intensifying the fuel product deficit and neutralizing international efforts to calm investors via insurance measures and military escorts. Despite the panic, a counterweight emerged from fresh US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, which recorded an unexpected 3.5-million-barrel increase in commercial crude inventories. Total reserves of 439.3 million barrels provide a safety cushion capable of partially absorbing supply shocks in a prolonged conflict.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) corrected to $2.98 per MMBtu, partially offsetting previous gains after Washington announced upcoming measures to stabilize the energy market. Despite this local pullback, quotes maintain a positive weekly trend of approximately 4%, reacting to the unprecedented operational halt at Qatar’s Ras Laffan hub and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are deeply concerned about a global LNG shortage, as the force majeure in Qatar, one of the world’s largest exporters, creates systemic risks for supplies to Europe and Asia.

Asian markets traded lower yesterday, though with mixed results. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.90% during the session, while the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.65%. The Hang Seng (HK50) edged up 0.28%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.44%.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) recovered to $0.590, yet it is ending the week in the red due to the flight to safe-haven assets. As an economy heavily dependent on energy imports, New Zealand has proven highly vulnerable to fuel price spikes, increasing pressure on the “kiwi.” Domestically, a serious dissonance is emerging between market expectations and official rhetoric; traders now price in an 80% probability of an RBNZ rate hike in September, expecting a total tightening of 40 basis points by year-end.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,830.71 −38.79 (−0.56%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,954.74 −784.67 (−1.61%)

DAX (DE40) 23,815.75 −389.61 (−1.61%)

FTSE 100 10,413.94 −153.71 (−1.45%)

USD Index 99.06 +0.29% (+0.30%)

News feed for: 2026.03.06

Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – CAD (MED)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 Mar

EUR/USD Under Pressure: Middle East Risks Outweigh All Else

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1620 on Friday, with the US dollar on track to gain approximately 1% by the end of the week. The dollar is benefiting from safe-haven demand amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices.

The joint US-Israel military operation against Iran continues into its seventh day. Tehran has responded with a fresh wave of missile and drone strikes targeting Gulf countries.

US President Donald Trump also stated that he would like to be involved in selecting Iran’s next leader. At the same time, he described the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei – son of the late Supreme Leader – as unlikely.

Rising oil prices have heightened concerns over a new wave of global inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts. Markets now anticipate the first Fed rate cut no earlier than September or October, revised down from the previous July forecast.

This week, the dollar strengthened most notably against the euro, reflecting the European economy’s heavy reliance on oil imports from the Middle East.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a compact consolidation range around the 1.1600 level. The current structure suggests a high probability of a wave developing towards 1.1533, with scope to extend further to 1.1500.

A downside breakout from this range would open the door for the second half of the momentum to unfold, with targets at least around 1.1400. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing strictly downwards, reflecting sustained bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed a growth wave targeting 1.1620, followed by a decline to form a consolidation range around 1.1600. An upside breakout from this range could trigger another growth leg to 1.1660, potentially extending to 1.1675, after which the broader downward trend is likely to resume towards 1.1500.

A downside breakout from the range would activate a continuation wave towards 1.1500, which could mark the completion of the third wave in the broader downward trend. This scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line has turned away from 80, indicating a short-term downward swing towards the 20 level.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains under significant pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive safe-haven flows into the US dollar, while pushing oil prices higher and stoking inflation concerns. The combination of delayed Fed rate cut expectations and Europe’s particular vulnerability to energy disruptions has exacerbated the euro’s weakness. With technical indicators pointing firmly lower, further downside appears likely, though short-term consolidation around key levels may precede the next leg of the downtrend.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Mar

Bitcoin shows resilience to Middle East events. Oil market stabilizes

By JustMarkets

The US stock market rose on Wednesday. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) increased by 0.49%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.79%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 1.51%. The US stock market displayed a confident “bullish” sentiment, largely ignoring geopolitical tensions. The primary driver of optimism was a decline in WTI oil prices: the market reacted with relief to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s plan to protect oil traffic in the Persian Gulf. Even the official confirmation of the 15% global tariffs taking effect this week failed to dampen risk appetite, as strong US macro data outweighed trade concerns. The February ADP report showed private sector employment growth of 185k (above the 145k prediction), while wage growth slowed. This created an ideal “soft landing” picture – a strong economy with cooling inflation in the services sector. The semiconductor sector led the rally: Micron and AMD shares jumped more than 5.5%, while Amazon rose 3.9%. Investors are betting that tech giants will remain resilient even under inflationary pressure.

The market was also stirred by a New York Times report stating that Iranian intelligence, through intermediaries, reached out to the CIA to discuss ceasefire terms. Despite this rare signal toward de-escalation, investor reaction remained cautious. US officials expressed doubt regarding Iran’s sincerity, viewing it as an attempt to buy time. Following the deaths of Iran’s top leadership, it remains unclear who possesses the authority to negotiate, which intensifies political chaos and sustains demand for safe-haven assets.

Bitcoin has consolidated above the psychological threshold of $72,000, holding near monthly highs as markets gradually stabilize following the escalation in the Middle East. Despite disruptions in global logistics through the Strait of Hormuz and the initial flight to safety, the digital coin demonstrated exceptional resilience. Notably, in recent days, the flagship of the digital assets market outperformed traditional gold in recovery pace: while the precious metal dipped by 2%, Bitcoin gained about 12%, effectively seizing the status of a priority haven amid geopolitical turbulence.

European markets showed a strong bullish reversal, almost completely recouping the losses of “Black Tuesday.” The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.74%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.79%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.49%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.80%. Despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, diplomatic signals from Washington and the stabilization of the energy market provided Europe with a necessary breathing spell.

The Swiss franc (CHF) held its position near 0.78 against the US dollar, remaining at historic highs amid a complex interplay of geopolitics and domestic economics. Investors continue to view the franc as a “safe harbor,” though further growth potential is limited by the hawkish rhetoric of the SNB. Internal conditions are complicated by fresh inflation data: in February, the CPI rose 0.6% for the month, but annual inflation stalled at 0.1%. This is a critically low figure, sitting at the very edge of the SNB’s target range (0-2%). SNB Vice Chairman Antoine Martin confirmed that the bank is ready for aggressive currency interventions, fearing that an overly strong franc will cheapen imports and push the economy into a deflationary spiral.

The oil market moved toward a fragile stabilization, with WTI crude futures declining to $74 per barrel. This marked the first drop in prices since the start of direct military confrontation between the US and Iran. The primary factor for the price decline was the decisive economic measures taken by the Donald Trump administration aimed at preventing a global energy collapse. Specifically, the President directed the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to implement a political risk insurance mechanism with affordable rates for vessels operating in the conflict zone. Despite verbal interventions by Scott Bessent and US promises of military escort for tankers, the physical situation in the Persian Gulf remains paralyzed. Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively ceased following IRGC threats to attack any vessels. Most large tankers remain at anchor.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) broke a three-day rally on Wednesday, falling below $3 per MMBtu. The market reacted to the first signals of possible de-escalation in the Middle East: reports of Iran’s readiness for negotiations reduced fears of a global fuel shortage, leading to a price correction, following oil. Despite positive news regarding possible contacts between Tehran and Washington, the physical blockage of supplies from the Persian Gulf remains a reality. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most commercial traffic, and Qatar’s largest LNG plant has yet to resume operations.

Asian markets traded lower yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 3.61% during the session, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 1.60%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) fell 2.01%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 1.91%. On Thursday, however, Chinese stock indices showed a confident rebound. The recovery was driven by improved global sentiment and the stabilization of inflation expectations, despite ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran. Beijing intends to counter deflationary risks and external tariff pressure through aggressive subsidies for the high-tech sector, R&D, and support for domestic consumer demand.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,869.50 +52.87 (+0.78%)

Dow Jones (US30) 48,739.41 +238.14 +(0.49%)

DAX (DE40) 24,205.36 +414.71 (+1.74%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,567.65 +83.52 (+0.80%)

USD Index 98.76 -0.28% (-0.29%)

News feed for: 2026.03.05

Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2); – CHF (MED)
Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Mar

What oil, stocks and bonds are telling us about the Iran conflict and how long it might last

By Daniele D’Alvia, Queen Mary University of London

When a conflict escalates, financial markets respond within minutes. That reaction is not just panic or speculation – it is a kind of collective judgement about what might happen next.

The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, which started on Saturday, triggered a sharp jump in oil prices when Asian markets opened on Monday (rising by as much as 13% amid fears of supply disruption). Major Gulf indices fell steeply, and in some cases trading was suspended amid volatility.

At the same time, investors moved into so-called “safe-haven” assets. Gold prices rose, and demand increased for traditionally defensive currencies such as the US dollar and Swiss franc.

This may sound like distant noise or random financial moves. In reality though, it is one of the clearest signals we have about how serious investors think the situation with Iran could become.

Markets are forward-looking. They do not only react to what has happened – they try to price what they expect will happen. Here’s how to read the signals.

Oil: the first warning light

Oil is usually the first market to move during Middle East tensions. That is because the region plays a crucial role in the global supply of energy. A particular point of concern is the strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping route through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil exports pass.

When oil prices jump, it does not mean supply has already stopped. It means traders believe there is a higher risk that supply could be disrupted.

Think of it like insurance. If the risk of damage rises, the price of insurance goes up immediately – even if no damage has yet occurred. Oil markets work in a similar way. Prices reflect the probability of trouble.

Why does this matter? Because oil affects almost everything. Higher oil prices push up fuel costs. Fuel affects transport. Transport affects food prices and goods on supermarket shelves. If oil remains expensive for weeks or months, it can push inflation higher.

So when oil spikes, markets are signalling that they see real economic risk – not just political drama.

At present, the scale of the oil move suggests markets are seriously reassessing the probability of disruption. The crucial question is persistence. If prices stabilise quickly, investors may believe escalation will be contained. If they remain elevated, markets are signalling expectations of prolonged instability.

Bonds: investors looking for safety

The second place to look is the bond market. A bond is essentially a loan. When you buy a government bond, you are lending money to a government in exchange for interest. US government bonds (Treasuries) are widely seen as one of the safest investments in the world.

In times of uncertainty, investors often move their money into these safer assets. This is known as “flight to safety”. When many people buy bonds at once, bond prices go up and their yields (the interest rate that is paid) go down.

You don’t need to follow bond charts every day to understand the message. If investors are accepting lower returns just to keep their money safe, it tells us they are worried.

If oil prices are rising while investors are piling into safe government bonds, markets may be signalling two concerns at the same time: higher short-term prices and weaker economic growth ahead. That is a difficult combination for any economy. Bond markets, in other words, are measuring anxiety.

Stock markets: how long will this last?

Stock markets reflect confidence in companies and economic growth. When shares fall sharply, it often means investors expect profits to be squeezed or business conditions to worsen. But the key issue is duration.

If stock markets fall briefly and then stabilise, investors may believe the conflict will be contained. If losses spread and persist, it suggests markets expect a longer or more disruptive episode.

Markets are not predicting headlines. They are estimating how long uncertainty might last and how deeply it might affect trade, energy supplies and consumer confidence.

Modern financial markets are highly interconnected. A shock in one region can ripple quickly across continents because supply chains, investment funds and large companies operate globally. That is why even a regional conflict can affect pension funds and savings accounts elsewhere.

Equity markets are not judging politics. They are estimating economic consequences.

What this means for markets – and for the conflict

Taken together, oil, bonds and equities provide a temperature check of expectations. Right now, markets are clearly pricing higher geopolitical risk. The sharp initial oil move shows concern about supply. The shift towards safer assets signals caution. Equity volatility reflects uncertainty about the duration of the conflict.

However, markets are not yet behaving as though they expect a systemic global crisis. We are seeing repricing – not collapse. That distinction matters.

As a finance expert, I believe markets are acting as early warning systems. If escalation of the conflict threatens to cause sustained disruption to energy infrastructure or shipping routes, we would expect the oil price to stay elevated, continued safe-haven flows and broader equity declines.

That would tighten financial conditions globally because higher energy prices push up inflation, falling stock markets reduce household wealth and confidence, and increased demand for safe assets raises borrowing costs for business and governments. In other words, credit becomes more expensive, investment decisions are delayed and consumers become cautious. This could slow economic growth.

If, however, tensions stabilise or de-escalate, markets may reverse quickly. Financial systems adjust rapidly when perceptions of risk change.

The broader implication is that modern conflicts transmit economic effects almost instantly through markets. Even before physical supply chains are interrupted, expectations alone can influence inflation, investment and policy decisions.

Markets do not determine the course of a conflict. But they shape the economic environment in which political decisions are made. For now, they are signalling caution – not panic. Whether that caution turns into something more severe will depend less on today’s headlines and more on whether disruption proves temporary or structural. That is what investors are watching. And it is what we should be watching too.

About the Author:

Daniele D’Alvia, Lecturer in Banking and Finance Law, Queen Mary University of London

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.