InvestMacro

Gold Moderately Lower as Market Pressures Intensify

Gold prices fell below 5,150 USD per ounce on Thursday, marking a second consecutive session of decline. Pressure on the market has intensified amid a sharp rise in oil prices, which heightens inflation risks and reduces the likelihood of imminent interest rate cuts by central banks.

Oil has rallied for a second straight day. The market remains concerned about the prospect of a protracted conflict involving Iran, with these worries outweighing the effect of a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves by major economies.

Despite the International Energy Agency’s decision to execute the largest release in history—400 million barrels—investors considered the move insufficient to stabilise the market.

A strengthening US dollar and rising Treasury yields have added further pressure on gold. Increased inflation expectations have diminished the probability of Federal Reserve easing, with the market now pricing in only one rate cut before year-end.

Data released yesterday showed that core inflation in the United States remains moderate at the start of the year. Meanwhile, the European Union has warned that inflation in the region could exceed 3% in 2026.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 5,196 USD level. A downside breakout would open potential for a continuation of the correction towards 4,953 USD. Conversely, an upside breakout would suggest the development of a growth wave towards the 5,390 USD level. The MACD indicator confirms the current momentum, with its signal line above zero and pointing upwards.

On the H1 chart, the market broke above the 5,135 USD level and completed a growth wave to 5,233 USD, before retracing to 5,140 USD. Looking ahead, the likelihood of a new growth wave developing towards the 5,262 USD level will be considered. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line remaining above the 50 level and retaining upside potential towards level 80.

Conclusion

Gold faces mounting headwinds as surging oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, reinforce inflation concerns and push central bank rate cut expectations further out. The dollar’s strength and rising yields compound the pressure on the non-yielding asset. While technical indicators suggest potential for a short-term bounce, the broader outlook remains cautious as markets digest the implications of sustained energy price inflation and its impact on monetary policy trajectories.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

12 Mar

Oil isn’t just fuel: Iran conflict could disrupt markets for everything from plastics to fertilizers

By André O. Hudson, Rochester Institute of Technology

Tensions in the Middle East often trigger concerns about rising gasoline prices. But disruptions to oil supplies could affect much more than the cost of filling up a car. That’s because crude oil is not only burned as fuel. It is also the raw material for thousands of products that modern societies depend on, including plastics, fertilizers, clothing fibers, medicines and electronics.

As a biochemist, I’m interested in how certain chemicals can shape society, and oil is a prime example.

The stakes become clearer when looking at the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. About one-fifth of the world’s petroleum liquids consumption passes through the strait each day, making it one of the most important oil shipping routes on Earth. If conflict significantly disrupts traffic there, the effects could ripple far beyond energy markets.

A map of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a narrow body of water between Iran and Oman. — The Strait of Hormuz.
Goran_tek-en/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Oil is a chemical starting point

Crude oil is a complex mixture of hydrocarbons – molecules made mainly of carbon and hydrogen. Refineries and chemical plants separate and transform these molecules into smaller chemical building blocks known as petrochemicals.

Some of the most important petrochemical building blocks include chemicals such as ethylene, propylene and benzene. Manufacturers can then convert these building blocks into more complex forms, which make up plastics, solvents, synthetic rubber and other industrial materials.

While fuel is a well-known product, fuels actually represents only a portion of what is produced from crude oil. The refining process generates a wide range of petroleum-based materials used to manufacture everyday items, such as plastics, medicines, electronics, cosmetics, clothing fibers and household goods.

A diagram showing a bunch of different types of hydrocarbon molecules derived from petroleum — Hydrocarbons are molecules made predominantly from hydrogen and carbon. Different forms, derived from crude oil, are used in many types of manufacturing.
André O. Hudson/Patel & Shah, 2013

Plastics that shape modern life

One of the most visible uses of oil is the production of plastics. Scientists can link individual petrochemical molecules to form polymers, which are long chains of repeating units that create materials such as polyethylene, polypropylene and polystyrene.

Because plastics are lightweight, durable and relatively inexpensive, they have become essential to global manufacturing.

These plastics appear in countless products, including food packaging and water bottles; medical equipment, such as syringes and IV bags; electronics casings and appliances; automotive parts; and construction materials, such as pipes and insulation.

Even technologies designed to reduce carbon emissions depend on them. Wind turbines, solar panels and electric vehicles all contain plastic components derived from petrochemicals.

Fertilizer that feeds billions

Oil and natural gas also play a critical role in agriculture. Modern fertilizers rely on nitrogen compounds, such as ammonia. Ammonia is produced through the Haber-Bosch process, which uses hydrogen typically derived from natural gas or other fossil fuels.

These fertilizers replenish nutrients in soil and dramatically increase crop yields. Without them, global food production would be far lower. Petrochemicals are also used to produce pesticides, herbicides and plastics used in irrigation systems and agricultural equipment.

Clothing, cosmetics and medicines

Petrochemicals also appear in many everyday consumer goods. Synthetic fabrics, such as polyester, nylon and acrylic, are made from petrochemical feedstocks. These feedstocks are the basic chemicals, made from crude oil or natural gas, that serve as the starting ingredients for products widely used in clothing, carpets and furniture.

Petroleum-derived ingredients are also common in cosmetics and personal care products. Certain lotions, shampoos and lipsticks rely on these compounds because they help stabilize formulas and extend shelf life.

Petrochemicals are also important in medicine. Petroleum-derived chemical intermediates − compounds made during the process of turning raw materials into a final product − are used to manufacture pharmaceuticals, medical tubing, sterile packaging and disposable gloves.

These materials help hospitals maintain sterility and safety in health care environments.

Crude oil is far more than just a source of gasoline.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters

Because oil and petrochemical feedstocks move through global shipping routes, disruptions in one region will affect supply chains worldwide. The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important. If conflict or political tensions continue to interrupt shipping through the Strait, oil prices will rise quickly. Energy analysts have long warned that disruptions to the strait could send shock waves through global markets. The impact would not be limited to transportation fuels.

Petrochemical industries depend on steady supplies of crude oil and natural gas liquids as raw materials. If those supplies become more expensive or harder to obtain, manufacturers could face higher production costs.

The proportion of crude oil used for petrochemical feedstocks to create plastics, fertilizers and other materials represents around 10% to 20% of oil consumption. Most crude oil is refined for fuel production, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, so these fuel supply chains would likely be the first to take a hit. But over time, disruptions could affect the availability and price of products ranging from plastics and packaging to fertilizers, synthetic clothing fibers and even food.

A hidden foundation of modern economies

Because petrochemicals are often used behind the scenes as ingredients rather than finished products, the connection many agricultural, medical and consumer goods have to oil is easy to overlook. Yet, petrochemicals form a hidden foundation for modern economies. They enable large-scale agriculture, advanced health care systems and global manufacturing supply chains.

At the same time, concerns about climate change and plastic pollution are driving research into alternatives. Scientists are developing bio-based plastics made from plant materials, improving recycling technologies and exploring new ways to produce fertilizers with lower carbon emissions.

For now, the modern world remains deeply dependent on oil, not only for energy but also for the materials that shape everyday life. When news headlines focus on disruptions to oil supply, the consequences may extend far beyond the gas pump, affecting the products that underpin modern society.

About the Author:

André O. Hudson, Dean of the College of Science, Professor of Biochemistry, Rochester Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

11 Mar

IEA deploys strategic reserves to halt soaring oil prices

By JustMarkets

On Tuesday, the US stock market concluded the session with a slight decline. The Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.07%, and the S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.21%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ (US100) managed a marginal gain of 0.01%. Investors found themselves in a state of uncertainty: the initial optimism sparked by President Trump’s claims of a swift end to the military operation met a harsh reality following clarifications from the White House. Official confirmation that naval escorts for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have not yet commenced, combined with reports of a potential Iranian mining threat, forced traders to remain cautious and partially rotate into cash.

Market attention has now shifted entirely to the upcoming inflation data. Traders fear that the recent spike in energy prices has already permeated macroeconomic indicators, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy for longer than previously anticipated.

European equity markets mostly trended higher. The German DAX (DE40) surged by 2.39%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.79%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped to 3.05%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished at 1.59% higher. The primary catalyst for the optimism in Frankfurt was Donald Trump’s rhetoric regarding a potential de-escalation in the Middle East, which led to a retreat in oil prices and eased fears of runaway inflation in the Eurozone.

However, the WTI oil market became an arena for intense informational warfare. After a morning slump to $80 per barrel, triggered by Trump’s “peaceful” tweets, quotes rebounded sharply to close near $87. This reversal followed an official statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which labeled Washington’s claims of an imminent end to the war as “false,” promising to block regional oil exports until US and Israeli strikes cease entirely. The situation intensified as US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, overseeing Operation “Epic Fury,” called Tuesday the “most intense day of airstrikes” since the conflict began, signaling a phase of systematic destruction of Iran’s industrial and naval infrastructure. The IEA has proposed a record-breaking release of strategic oil reserves; however, the physical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a collapse in production from major Middle Eastern producers. This creates a supply deficit that reserves cannot fully offset, driving investors toward silver and other metals as a hedge against stagflation.

Asian markets also rebounded yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.88%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 1.06%, the Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 2.17%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 1.09%. Drivers for this optimism included strong corporate news and trade statistics from mainland China. China’s trade data for January-February 2026 continues to impress, with exports growing by a record 21.8% and imports by 19.8%. However, these strong figures also breed caution; investors worry that Beijing may view the economy as sufficiently resilient and delay further stimulus measures, especially given the recently announced 4.5-5.0% GDP target – the lowest in decades.

On Wednesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) made an impressive leap to 0.716-0.718 USD, its highest level in nearly four years. This was driven by a sharp revision in interest rate expectations. The market reacted to signals from the RBA: the probability of a rate hike on March 17 skyrocketed from 30% to 75% in just days. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser confirmed that the spike in fuel prices (with petrol exceeding $2.15 per liter in major cities) poses a significant risk to inflation expectations, which already sit above the 23% target range.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) stabilized at 0.593-0.594 USD on March 11, 2026, holding weekly highs. This rise reflects a hawkish shift in investor sentiment. While the RBNZ signaled rate stability at 2.25% as recently as February, the March energy shock has forced the market to price in imminent tightening. Leading banks such as Westpac and BNZ have revised their inflation prognosis upward, expecting the CPI to remain within the upper 3.0% target boundary for most of 2026.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,781.48 −14.51 (−0.21%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,706.51 −34.29 (−0.072%)

DAX (DE40) 23,968.63 +559.26 (2.39%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,412.24 +162.72 (+1.59%)

USD Index 98.94 -0.24% (−0.24%)

News feed for: 2026.03.11

Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2). – WTI (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

11 Mar

GBP/USD Managed to Rise, but Pressure Factors Remain in Place

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD rose to 1.3450 on Wednesday. Expectations of de-escalation in the Middle East supported the pound, as lower oil prices reduced inflationary risks for the British economy, which is heavily dependent on energy imports.

Despite this localised strengthening, investors continue to monitor the development of the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran closely. Its consequences could significantly affect the global economy. The situation remains uncertain: US President Donald Trump has suggested the war could end soon, but Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will not resume while attacks by the United States and Israel continue.

Amid these external risks, investors are also revising expectations for UK monetary policy. On average, a Bank of England interest rate cut in the second quarter is now considered possible.

Domestic factors continue to weigh on the pound. Weak economic statistics and political uncertainty in the UK maintain downside risks for the currency. An additional source of tension may be the local elections, scheduled to take place in two months.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a wide consolidation range around the 1.3382 level, currently extending up to 1.3474. A decline to 1.3384 is expected in the near term. Following the completion of this correction, the formation of a new consolidation range is likely. An upside breakout would open potential for a continuation wave to 1.3515, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement towards 1.3133. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is above the zero level and pointing strictly upwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3434 level. A downside breakout would initiate a wave structure extending to 1.3382. Should this level be breached, further downside potential towards 1.3125 would open. Conversely, an upside breakout from the range could trigger a growth wave to the 1.3515 level. Technically, this scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above the 50 level and pointing strictly upwards.

Conclusion

GBP/USD has found temporary relief amid hopes for Middle East de-escalation, which has helped moderate oil prices and ease inflationary concerns for the UK. However, the underlying picture remains uncertain, with geopolitical risks, domestic economic weakness, and political tensions continuing to cloud the outlook. While technical indicators suggest potential for further upside in the near term, the broader trend will likely depend on whether geopolitical conditions stabilise and whether the Bank of England signals a clearer policy direction.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Mar

Mining the ocean floor: 5 deep‑sea sources of critical minerals essential to technology, and the fragile marine life at risk

By Leonardo Macelloni, University of Mississippi

You may be hearing a lot lately about critical minerals and rare earth elements. These natural materials are essential to industry and modern technology – everything from cellphones to fighter jets.

They include lithium and cobalt used in batteries, neodymium for magnets in motors and hard drives, and rare earths that are essential in defense systems, lasers and medical imaging. Critical minerals are also indispensable for renewable energy systems, energy storage and digital infrastructure. Without them, modern society – and any realistic path to a world with net-zero emissions – would not be possible.

A mechanical claw holds a polymetallic nodule, one of several seafloor sources of critical minerals.
ROV-Team/GEOMAR via Wikimedia, CC BY

Critical minerals get their name because they’re also highly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions from global events, trade tensions or economic instability. And, today, one country dominates many critical mineral supply chains: China.

With that in mind, many governments are looking for alternative sources of critical minerals, and several companies are eyeing the ocean floor as a potential new frontier for mining them.

A map shows seafloor areas being considered for exploration and critical minerals mining. International Seabed Authority

As a marine geologist, I know the potential for seafloor minerals is vast. But that doesn’t mean those minerals are easy to harvest. They come in several forms, from potato-size rocks scattered on the seafloor to seafloor crusts at hydrothermal vents and underwater brine pools. And they are often found in sensitive locations that are home to fragile marine life, raising questions about damage to some of the least explored and least understood parts of our planet.

Polymetallic nodules on the seafloor

When you picture seafloor mining, polymetallic or manganese nodules are probably what come to mind.

Rock-like nodules are about the size of potatoes and are found scattered on vast deep-water plains, typically 3,000 to 6,000 meters deep, in several regions, including a large area of the Pacific Ocean southeast of Hawaii.

They primarily consist of manganese and iron, though they can contain significant amounts of other metals, including valuable nickel, cobalt, copper and small amounts of rare earth elements and platinum.

Polymetallic nodules spotted during a survey of the Blake Plateau, roughly 80 to 200 miles off the southeastern U.S. coast in the Atlantic Ocean.
NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research, 2019 Southeastern U.S. Deep-sea Exploration

Nodules form from metals that get into the ocean through erosion or from seafloor hydrothermal vents in volcanically active areas. The metal ions attach to a nucleus, such as a rock or shell fragment. Over time, layers form around that core. The growth is very slow – only a few millimeters in a million years – so larger nodules can be several million years old.

More than 17 exploration licenses exist, primarily in the Pacific’s Clarion-Clipperton Zone. Tests there have involved suctioning nodules from the seafloor to ships above. But, as of early 2026, full-scale, commercial mining has not yet begun.

A map shows mining targets in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, southeast of Hawaii. Areas in red have the highest-known abundance of polymetalic nodules.
McQuaid KA, Attrill MJ, Clark MR, Cobley A, Glover AG, Smith CR and Howell KL, 2020, CC BY

Seafloor massive sulfides at hydrothermal vents

Another source of critical minerals is seafloor massive sulfides, which form near hydrothermal vents along oceanic ridges. Volcanic activity reacts with seawater, fueling bursts of marine life at these vents, and also forming rocks rich in copper, gold, zinc, lead, barium and silver.

These hot springs form where water rises through the oceanic crust at high temperatures, up to about 750 degrees Fahrenheit (400 degrees Celsius). The metals contained in these solutions precipitate on contact with the cold, oxygen-rich seawater, forming the ventlike structures known as “black smokers” because they look like factory chimneys.

Tube worms cover a ‘black smoker,’ where warm, mineral-rich water emerges.
Ocean Networks Canada, CC BY-NC-SA

The technology for mining these deposits is currently being built. The first deep-sea tests were performed by Japanese miners in their coastal waters.

Cobalt-rich crusts at seamounts

Ferromanganese crusts are another source. They form on the slopes and summits of underwater mountains known as seamounts and contain manganese, iron and a wide array of trace metals such as cobalt, copper, nickel and platinum.

Over millions of years, metals in the surrounding seawater form coatings of iron and manganese oxides, with thicknesses ranging from a few millimeters to a few decimeters, depending on the age of the seamounts.

Corals and sponges found at Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monument.
NOAA

Crust mining is technically much more difficult than nodule mining. Nodules sit on soft sediment. Crusts, in contrast, are attached to substrate rock. For successful crust mining, it would be essential to recover the crusts without collecting too much substrate, which would dilute the ore quality.

However, little is known about the marine life found on seamounts, particularly those in the most likely regions for crust exploration and mining.

Underwater brine pools

Another possible ocean source of lithium and potentially rare earth elements may lie in unusual underwater lakes called hypersaline brine pools. These salty pools are found on the seafloor in several parts of the world, but they are especially common in the Gulf of Mexico.

Brine is already the source of much of the lithium used today. Companies extract it from salty water produced during oil and geothermal operations.

Lithium becomes concentrated in brines over millions of years. As water moves through deep rocks, minerals dissolve along the way and elements like lithium can accumulate.

Extracting lithium from deep-sea brines, if it is confirmed to be there, could be more straightforward than traditional seabed mining. Technologies already exist to separate lithium from salty water.

In the Gulf, this approach could potentially use existing offshore oil and gas infrastructure, reducing the need for new construction. The brine could be pumped up, processed to remove lithium, and then returned to the subsurface.

Deep-sea mud

In the Central Pacific Ocean and off Japan, deep-sea mud enriched with rare earth elements and yttrium has been recognized as another new resource.

These deposits form from the very slow accumulation of fish debris, composed of biogenic calcium phosphate, in the deepest parts of the ocean. In 2026, a Japanese research vessel successfully drilled and retrieved deep-sea sediment containing rare earth minerals from the seabed near the island of Minamitorishima, and the Japanese government announced a deep-sea mud extraction trial would begin in 2027.

The drawbacks for marine life

While these regions likely hold vast resources, scientists know very little about the ecological conditions at the boundary between deep-sea water and seafloor sediments, especially about the microbial communities that live there.

Microorganisms are the most widespread and fundamental forms of life on Earth. They play central roles in ecosystems, nutrient cycles, and the long-term stability of the planet. The potential impacts of mechanically removing nodules from the seafloor – through cutting, scraping or lifting – on these microscopic ecosystems remain largely unknown.

A visualization of deep-sea mining for polymetallic nodules. MIT Mechanical Engineering

In the Pacific Ocean, an experimental mining test carried out in 1978 was revisited more than two decades later. Even after 26 years, tracks left by mining vehicles were still visible on the seafloor. The disturbed areas had fewer bottom-dwelling organisms and less diversity compared to nearby undisturbed regions. Notably, no detailed assessment of microbial communities was conducted, leaving a significant gap in understanding.

An example of a sea-floor massive sulfide mining system and its potential environmental impacts.
GRID-Arendal via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-NC-SA

Complicating the issue further, many prospective deep-sea mining areas lie in international waters, beyond the jurisdiction of individual nations.

The International Seabed Authority is responsible for regulating mineral activities in the deep ocean, but there is no global consensus on the rules, safeguards or acceptable risks associated with seabed mining. Some countries, including the United States, are discussing creating their own licenses to mine in international areas, while about 40 others are calling for a mining moratorium until the risks are better understood.

Critical minerals are the invisible foundation of modern life. As interest in deep-sea mining grows, these scientific uncertainties and governance challenges will be central to the debate.

About the Author:

Leonardo Macelloni, Director of the Mississippi Mineral Resources Institute and Center for Marine Resources and Environmental Technology, University of Mississippi

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

10 Mar

Trump signals de-escalation in the Middle East; China’s trade surplus hits a new record

By JustMarkets

The US stock market concluded Monday’s session with gains. By the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.50%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.83%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ (US100) increased by 1.38%. The morning collapse, fueled by fears of stagflation, turned into a rally following statements by Donald Trump that the active phase of the war with Iran is “practically over” and that the Strait of Hormuz is reopening for tankers. This triggered a drop in WTI oil prices to $86 per barrel, removing the short-term threat of an energy collapse. The primary growth driver was the technology sector, where shares of AMD and Broadcom soared over 4.6% amid strong AI chip revenue predictions (Broadcom expects more than $100 billion in 2027). While the banking sector (Wells Fargo, Citigroup) remained under pressure due to private credit default risks, investors actively bought up discounted growth stocks.

On Tuesday, the Mexican peso (MXN) stabilized at 17.8 per dollar, breaking its fall toward seven-week lows. The rebound was sparked by Mexico’s February inflation data, which accelerated to 4.02%, breaching the central bank’s upper target threshold for the first time in a year. Despite local support, the peso remains a hostage to external shocks: the 10% global US tariffs and the war in the Middle East create a toxic backdrop for emerging market currencies. Although expensive oil bolsters Mexico’s budget, the peso’s status as a “proxy” for global risk makes it extremely vulnerable to every new wave of flight to the dollar.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered the psychological $70,000 mark, gaining about 2% amid a sharp improvement in market sentiment. The upward momentum was provided by Donald Trump’s rhetoric, who described the war with Iran as “practically over” and predicted a swift resolution to the conflict. The digital assets market recovery synchronized with a powerful rally in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 2.8% to exceed 54,000 points. Altcoins followed the lead: Ether (ETH) returned to the $2,130 level, while Solana (SOL) stabilized near $91 ahead of the major Alpenglow network update later this month.

European stock markets mostly declined on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.77%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.98%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.86%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished at 0.34% lower. The primary pressure came from the escalation of US and Israeli strikes on Iranian refineries, which paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz and sparked fears of a new inflationary spiral. Consequently, traders began pricing in ECB rate hikes. The transport and industrial sectors suffered most: Lufthansa shares fell 7.3% due to soaring jet fuel prices, while tire manufacturer Continental fell 4.4%. Automakers (Volkswagen, Porsche) also finished in the red due to global supply chain risks.

Silver (XNG) recouped most of its morning losses, stabilizing at $83.9 per ounce. Earlier in the session, quotes had collapsed nearly 6%, testing key support near $80 due to a sharp strengthening of the dollar and oil prices spiking above $100. The dual nature of the metal, as a safe haven and an industrial commodity, created conflicting flows: while geopolitical tension supported haven demand, the threat of a global recession and reduced industrial consumption (which accounts for 60% of silver demand) exerted powerful downward pressure.

WTI oil prices performed a dizzying turnaround, collapsing nearly 4% by the end of the day to $87 per barrel. This followed an earlier surge to $120 on news of production paralysis in Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. The market cooled rapidly thanks to a coordinated statement from G7 Finance Ministers regarding readiness for massive strategic reserve interventions, effectively guaranteeing the replenishment of any short-term supply deficits.

Asian markets were also under a sell-off yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 5.20% during the session, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.47%, the Hang Seng (HK50) shed 1.35%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) closed down at 2.85%.

China’s trade surplus soared to a record $213 billion, with exports growing by 21.8% and imports by 19.8%. These figures significantly exceeded analyst prognosis and confirmed China’s status as a global manufacturing hub capable of scaling volumes even during periods of instability.

The Australian dollar (AUD) corrected to 0.70 against the US dollar on Tuesday, losing about 0.7% following the retreat in oil prices. As a “commodity” currency, the aussie faced pressure as brent fell to $91.37 and WTI to $86. This occurred after Donald Trump announced the military operation against Iran was significantly ahead of schedule, calling it “very complete” and predicting further fuel price declines. Domestic Australian statistics presented a mixed picture: the Westpac Index rose 1.2% to 91.6, while the NAB Business Confidence Index plummeted to 1, its first negative reading since April 2025.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,795.99 +55.97 (+0.83%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,740.80 +239.25 (+0.50%)

DAX (DE40) 23,409.37 −181.66 (−0.77%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,249.52 −35.23 (−0.34%)

USD Index 98.73 -0.25% (−0.26%)

News feed for: 2026.03.10

Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (LOW)
China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – NOK (MED)
US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

10 Mar

EUR/USD in Turbulence: Market Questions When Conflict Over Iran Will End

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1608 on Tuesday. The US dollar attempted to recover from a sharp intraday decline the previous day, which had been driven by expectations of a faster resolution to the conflict involving Iran, temporarily reducing demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

US President Donald Trump stated that the military operation in Iran is nearing completion and is progressing faster than initial estimates, which had suggested a duration of four to five weeks. He also announced plans to reduce oil sanctions and deploy US Navy ships to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to contain rising oil prices.

Previously, the dollar had strengthened significantly due to safe-haven demand. The escalation of the Middle East conflict and rising energy prices had intensified fears of prolonged economic disruption and a fresh wave of inflation.

Investor attention is now shifting to macroeconomic statistics from the United States. The February consumer price index (CPI) is scheduled for release on Wednesday, followed by the January PCE index on Friday. Market participants believe these data points will not yet fully capture the conflict’s impact on inflation expectations.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 1.1588 level. An upward wave is expected, with a continuation towards the 1.1668 level. Thereafter, the beginning of a new downward wave within the broader trend is anticipated, targeting 1.1419 as a local objective. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains below zero and is pointing strictly downwards, reflecting sustained bearish momentum with potential for further downside.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next growth wave towards the 1.1668 level. After reaching this level, a decline to 1.1419 is expected, followed by the initiation of a new growth wave to 1.1650. Technically, this scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing strictly upwards towards the 80 level.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with signals of a potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict temporarily weighing on the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. However, the broader technical picture suggests any upside may be limited, with bearish momentum likely to reassert itself once the current corrective wave completes. Upcoming US inflation data will provide crucial clues about whether recent energy price increases are beginning to filter through to consumer prices, potentially influencing Fed policy expectations.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Mar

War in Middle East brings uncertainty and higher energy costs to already weakening US economy

By Michael Klein, Tufts University

The “fog of war” refers to confusion and uncertainty on the battlefield and the attendant possibility of fatal error. This principle has a parallel when it comes to the economic consequences of wars as well, especially when they occur in a region that is a chokepoint for the production and shipment of one-fifth of the world’s oil and a third of its natural gas.

Although no one really knows how deeply the ripple effects of the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran will impair the global economy, the Gulf kingdom of Qatar issued a dire warning on March 6, 2026, that reflects those concerns: “This will bring down the economies of the world,” Qatar’s energy minister said.

As for the U.S. economy, it was already showing signs of weakness. Data released on March 6 showed an unexpected loss in jobs in February.

As an economist, I expect the biggest economic risks of this war to be inflationary pressures and slowing growth due to the rising price of oil. In addition, uncertainty from the “economic fog of war” could make consumers reticent to spend and businesses hesitant about hiring and investing. These conditions will make it challenging for policymakers to steer the economy.

Uncertainty and risks

There is currently, and likely to be for some time, great uncertainty about the length of the war in Iran, the range of countries involved and its costs. All of these factors will determine how much the war hurts economies in the U.S. and across the globe.

We do know there will be disruptions to the supply of oil and liquefied natural gas, which is difficult to ship through the Strait of Hormuz, and from the fiscal costs associated with this military action.

The price of crude oil has jumped by about 25% since the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran on Feb. 28, which has driven up gasoline prices across the U.S. The majority of oil and liquefied natural gas produced in the Middle East travels through the Strait of Hormuz – but the threat of attack has made travel through this waterway uninsurable, which has brought shipping through this vital passage to a virtual halt.

This is also an expensive military campaign for the United States, which has already seen the loss of aircraft and a depletion of its stock of missiles. Early estimates of the cost of the war were nearly US$1 billion a day.

Challenges managing a supply shock

The 1979 Iranian Revolution also brought about a spike in the price of oil, which was an important contributing factor to the United States and Europe experiencing an economic phenomenon called “stagflation” – a portmanteau of stagnant growth and high inflation.

This is unlikely to be repeated to the same extent now. Economies are less dependent upon oil and natural gas than they were in the late 1970s and early ’80s. And the U.S. is not beginning the war with a previous decade of high inflation that made it more difficult to reduce price pressures, since expectations of inflation feed into actual inflation.

Still, supply shocks are challenging to address, as the world saw with the COVID-19 pandemic, and policymakers will likely have to make some difficult choices that involve hard trade-offs.

Trade-off between fighting inflation or recession

One of the questions arising from supply shocks is whether a central bank should raise interest rates to combat inflation or lower them to offset weakness in the economy and rising unemployment. Lifting rates brings down inflation by reducing demand for loans and curbing growth, while lowering rates has the opposite effect.

In both the late 1970s and during the onset of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve opted to keep rates low to help support the economy and the job market. In both cases, this led to a spike in inflation.

The inflation of the late 1970s and early ’80s was brought down by a strong reversal of monetary policy with high interest rates, causing a recession that was, at that time, the deepest since the 1930s. Notably, the reduction of inflation in the wake of COVID-19 did not require a similar economic downturn to achieve that goal. An important reason for that is the long history of low inflation in the decades before the 2020s and the “anchoring” of inflation expectations.

Risks on the horizon

But there are reasons to be concerned.

While the Fed now has a well-deserved anti-inflation reputation, its credibility with financial markets is at risk because of President Donald Trump’s attacks on Chairman Jerome Powell, the prosecution of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook and the appointment of a new chair who many suspect will push for lower rates because that’s what the president wants.

Concerns that these actions could lead to higher inflation can become a self-fullfilling prophecy that brings about the very thing that people are worried about. Seeds of new inflation pressures may be falling on fertile soil.

Uncertainty triggered by the war is not the only negative economic signal. Tariff policy, cuts to government employment, rising federal debt and the possibility of financial vulnerabilities are all weighing on the U.S. economy. A spike in the price of oil could very well set off greater weakness, and even a recession, as consumers and businesses pull back from spending.

About the Author:

Michael Klein, Professor of International Economic Affairs at The Fletcher School, Tufts University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

09 Mar

Prices push oil above $100 per barrel

By JustMarkets

The Canadian dollar rose above 1.37 against the US dollar, reaching a one-month high and leading performance among G7 currencies.
Mexican peso slid to 17.8 per dollar, a seven-week low and its weakest weekly result since summer 2024.
Swiss franc trades near historic highs at 0.78 per USD, supported by safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Natural gas prices reached $3.4 per MMBtu, the highest in a month, on supply fears linked to Ras Laffan.

Oil prices surge above $100 per barrel

Trading on the US stock market ended lower. By the close of Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.95% (-2.27% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) shed 1.33% (-1.41% for the week), and the tech-heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed down 1.59% (-0.60% for the week). This unanimous negative trend was driven by a dangerous combination of a geopolitical crisis and weak macroeconomic data, which heightened fears of stagflation. Washington’s ultimatum to Tehran and warnings from Middle Eastern exporters regarding force majeure circumstances propelled WTI oil prices to critical levels. Against this backdrop, the shocking contraction of 92,000 jobs in the US and the jump in the unemployment rate to 4.4% confirmed investor fears that high energy costs have begun to undermine the real economy and consumer activity.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened to a one-month high above 1.37 against the US dollar, demonstrating the best performance among G7 currencies. The primary driver of the rally was the surge in WTI oil prices above $92 per barrel, which provided a massive influx of foreign exchange earnings into the Canadian economy amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to a seven-week low of 17.8 per dollar, showing its worst weekly performance since the summer of 2024. The main trigger for the decline was the shock contraction of US jobs, which amplified fears of an economic cooldown in Mexico’s largest trading partner. Despite a local weakening of the dollar index, the peso fell victim to a mass exodus of investors from risky emerging market assets, triggered by the escalation in the Middle East and the threat of global stagflation.

Equity markets in Europe mostly declined. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.94% (-4.80% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.65% (-5.53% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.99% (-4.57% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 1.24% lower (-5.33% for the week).

The Swiss franc (CHF) continues to trade near historical highs at 0.78 against the US dollar. Investors view the currency as the primary safe-haven asset amid the catastrophic escalation in the Middle East. However, further strengthening of the franc is limited by the hawkish rhetoric of the SNB. Vice President Antoine Martin confirmed that the regulator is ready for active currency interventions to prevent a deflationary spiral.

Silver prices (XAG) made a sharp move on Friday, consolidating above the $32.5 per ounce level. The main driver was the shocking US labor market report: the loss of 92,000 jobs and the rise in unemployment to 4.4% forced investors to urgently revise their anticipations. While the market had been preparing all week for a “higher-for-longer” interest rate scenario due to oil-driven inflationary pressure, Friday’s data sharply increased the likelihood of early Fed policy easing, reducing the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

WTI oil prices demonstrated historic volatility: after a 31% surge, quotes stabilized above $100 per barrel (+13% for the day). This is the most powerful daily jump since the 2020 pandemic, caused by the paralysis of production in the Persian Gulf. In Iraq, production at southern fields collapsed by 70%, and Kuwait declared force majeure, which, combined with disruptions in Qatar, created a critical supply deficit on the global market. The situation is exacerbated by the risk of technical production halts in the UAE and Saudi Arabia; due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, exports are impossible, and domestic storage facilities are filling up critically fast. Against this background, a power transition occurred in Tehran. Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ali Khamenei, became the new Supreme Leader of Iran, adding uncertainty regarding further escalation or the possibility of negotiations.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) rose to $3.4 per MMBtu, reaching a one-month high amid critical global supply disruptions. The main factor behind the panic was the production halt at the Qatari giant Ras Laffan following Iranian drone strikes and the declaration of force majeure. Since the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to commercial shipping, approximately 20% of global LNG trade has been blocked, sharply increasing demand for American gas as the only stable alternative for Europe and Asia. The situation is further complicated by the war entering its second week: Israel and the US are striking Iranian fuel depots, while Tehran attacks the energy infrastructure of its neighbors.

Asian markets were also under a sell-off last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 3.70% over the trading week, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.98%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) shed 2.23%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 2.95% over the 5 days.

On Monday, the Nikkei 225 (JP225) plummeted by 6%, dropping to 32,000 points – its lowest level in two months. The massive sell-off was triggered by the jump in WTI oil prices above $100 per barrel (briefly reaching $119) amid the escalation of the war involving the US, Israel, and Iran. For the tech-oriented Japanese market, this served as a “fire siren,” as investors began pricing in the inevitable rise in production costs and the risk of global stagflation. Japan finds itself in a critical situation due to its unprecedented energy dependency: the country receives about 95% of its oil from the Middle East, with 70% of those supplies physically passing through the now-blocked Strait of Hormuz.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) fell to $0.587, ending the week in the red amid the escalation in the Middle East and a flight to safe-haven assets. The energy shock and the blockade of supply routes make the New Zealand economy extremely vulnerable, as the country is totally dependent on imported oil. A conflict of expectations is brewing in the market: traders estimate the probability of an RBNZ rate hike in September at 80%, predicting a 40-basis-point tightening, while the regulator itself maintains a much softer rhetoric.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,740.02 −90.69 (−1.33%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,501.55 −453.19 (−0.95%)

DAX (DE40) 23,591.03 −224.72 (−0.94%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,284.75 −129.19 (−1.24%)

USD Index 98.86 -0.46% (−0.47%)

News feed for: 2026.03.09

China Inflation Rate (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2). – MXN (MED)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

07 Mar

Currency Speculator Positions see AUD, BRL Bets rise. Yen, Euro Bets drop

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real

Open Interest Strength Levels show where current Open Futures Contracts are highest and lowest (higher interest can fuel trends and setup for more potential moves & vice versa) for currency markets.

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (15,118 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (8,296 contracts) also having a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-28,114 contracts), the EuroFX (-20,358 contracts), the British Pound (-15,614 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-6,528 contracts), Mexican Peso (-5,837 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-4,767 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-3,200 contracts), Bitcoin (-161 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (-97 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Weekly Currency Speculator Positions see AUD, BRL bets rise. Yen, Euro bets drop

The Australian Dollar speculator position continued to surge higher this week. It rose over 15,000 contracts and is now higher for the fourteenth consecutive week. Over these last 14 weeks, speculators have added 151,938 net contracts to the Aussie position. This has taken the overall position from highly bearish in November to a total of +67,762 contracts this week and the current positioning continues to be at its highest levels since 2017. In the currency spot market, however, with the Iran war breaking out this week, the Aussie dipped this week after touching its highest levels since 2023 in previous weeks. The Aussie made a bearish doji candlestick on the weekly charts and has been overbought for many weeks on the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator. The Australian Dollar has not traditionally been a safe haven currency—actually the opposite, so caution is warranted going forward with this currency.

The Brazilian Real was the next highest gainer this week with a rise of over 8,000 contracts. The Real now has been up in seven out of the past eight weeks for an eight-week gain of 27,353 net contracts. The Real position currently sits at a +44,970 contract net position, which is the highest level since December. In the currency spot market, the Real saw a strong dip (-2.63%) this week after a recent strong run that had brought the BRL to the highest level since 2024 against the US Dollar. The Real is also not considered a safe haven currency, so this currency also bears watching.

The Japanese Yen was the biggest loser on the week in terms of speculator changes in positions. The Yen lost -28,114 contracts this week and fell for a second consecutive week. This has pulled the Yen back into an overall negative or bearish territory with a total net position, as of Tuesday, at -16,575 contracts. In the forex market, the Yen has typically been a safe haven currency but did not receive safe haven flows this week as the currency fell by over 1%. It continued to lose ground to the US Dollar for the third consecutive week as the USD/JPY trades at the 157.82 exchange rate in the spot currency markets, which is a historically strong rate for the US Dollar versus the Yen.

The Euro positions also took a strong hit this week, and the Euro positioning has now dropped for three consecutive weeks with a total of -43,807 net contracts taken off the bullish position. Overall, the Euro currency has been in a strong speculative bullish position, with the position being over +100,000 contracts for fourteen consecutive weeks and for thirty-four out of the past thirty-eight weeks dating back to June 2025. In the currency spot market this week, the Euro fell by almost 2% as the Iran war raged, and the Euro closed at 1.1605. Just about six weeks ago, the Euro touched a high of 1.2110 against the US Dollar but has now dipped back into its range from 1.15 to about 1.19 that the currency has traded in since June.

The US Dollar Index speculator positions fell for a second straight week this week and continue to be in an smallish overall net bearish position at -4,989 contracts. However, in the Forex market, the US Dollar Index started to see some strength as the week grew on, and the US Dollar is a traditional safe haven currency (along with the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen). The speculator data is through Tuesday and the speculator contracts may see an abrupt shift next week as the war drags on. Currently, the US Dollar Index trades at the 98.98 level, which is its highest close in about six weeks and there is the 100.00 psychological price level waiting above to test on further gains.

Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index lead Price Performance this week

Bitcoin saw a bit of a rebound this week with a 3.81% gain and led in the weekly price performances. The US Dollar Index was higher this week by 1.52% and received safe haven bids due to the Iran war. The Canadian Dollar was higher by 0.36% and undoubtedly received some strength off of the oil price going higher.

On the downside, the British Pound Sterling was lower by -0.71% followed by the Swiss Franc which fell by -1.13%. The Japanese Yen was next with a -1.19% shortfall while the Australian Dollar was lower by -1.35% and the New Zealand Dollar was lower by -1.69%. The Euro dropped a little less than 2% with a -1.84% 5-day decline. The Brazilian Real had a sharp decline at -2.63% and the Mexican Peso was the biggest loser on the week with a -3.28% decrease.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Canadian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (97 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (81 percent), Bitcoin (74 percent) and the Brazilian Real (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (9 percent) and the Swiss Franc (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (26 percent) and the US Dollar Index (31 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (30.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (39.3 percent)
EuroFX (80.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (88.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (8.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (15.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (46.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (53.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (17.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (17.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (97.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (100.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (25.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (31.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (55.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (59.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (72.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (66.6 percent)
Bitcoin (74.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (77.5 percent)

Australian Dollar & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (47 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (20 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (17 percent) and Bitcoin (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The British Pound (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Mexican Peso (-21 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (3.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.2 percent)
EuroFX (9.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (9.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-21.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-13.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (7.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (15.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (3.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (28.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (31.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (46.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (17.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (22.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-21.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-14.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (19.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (13.7 percent)
Bitcoin (15.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,989 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,200 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,789 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	29.7	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.1	12.2	12.5
– Net Position:	-4,989	5,223	-234
– Gross Longs:	15,061	8,882	3,513
– Gross Shorts:	20,050	3,659	3,747
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.7	70.8	34.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-2.9	-6.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 136,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,358 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 156,856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	53.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	73.4	4.8
– Net Position:	136,498	-184,593	48,095
– Gross Longs:	294,586	485,713	91,926
– Gross Shorts:	158,088	670,306	43,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.7	18.3	76.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.4	-9.9	8.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -72,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,072 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	60.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.0	31.8	11.4
– Net Position:	-72,686	77,305	-4,619
– Gross Longs:	59,499	163,156	26,010
– Gross Shorts:	132,185	85,851	30,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	90.4	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.5	23.5	-24.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -16,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -28,114 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	44.6	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	41.0	9.1
– Net Position:	-16,575	15,007	1,568
– Gross Longs:	134,945	186,027	39,530
– Gross Shorts:	151,520	171,020	37,962
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	54.7	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.8	-6.6	-5.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -41,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -97 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	68.6	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.9	27.6	16.5
– Net Position:	-41,283	43,280	-1,997
– Gross Longs:	12,390	72,324	15,357
– Gross Shorts:	53,673	29,044	17,354
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.2	70.0	70.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-7.6	11.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,578 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	43.5	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.4	53.8	11.6
– Net Position:	21,050	-24,056	3,006
– Gross Longs:	94,008	101,029	30,071
– Gross Shorts:	72,958	125,085	27,065
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.1	2.7	53.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.1	-29.9	20.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 67,762 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,644 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.1	27.3	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	60.7	7.1
– Net Position:	67,762	-89,249	21,487
– Gross Longs:	136,515	72,991	40,551
– Gross Shorts:	68,753	162,240	19,064
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	85.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.6	-37.5	-9.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -34,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	69.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.8	27.2	4.7
– Net Position:	-34,334	33,689	645
– Gross Longs:	13,176	55,324	4,396
– Gross Shorts:	47,510	21,635	3,751
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.6	72.0	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-19.2	24.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 77,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,837 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.6	38.0	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	72.1	1.0
– Net Position:	77,043	-80,516	3,473
– Gross Longs:	126,531	89,636	5,852
– Gross Shorts:	49,488	170,152	2,379
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	43.5	42.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.3	21.4	-7.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 44,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,674 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.4	27.5	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	73.6	0.9
– Net Position:	44,970	-48,793	3,823
– Gross Longs:	71,267	29,032	4,810
– Gross Shorts:	26,297	77,825	987
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.7	26.4	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.9	-19.7	1.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -161 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,172 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.8	3.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.8	7.9	6.4
– Net Position:	1,011	-862	-149
– Gross Longs:	15,585	751	1,149
– Gross Shorts:	14,574	1,613	1,298
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	37.4	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.1	-9.3	-15.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.