InvestMacro

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (33,911 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (24,825 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (8,889 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (7,746 contracts) and also the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (5,825 contracts) seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-74,691 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-39,561 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-27,363 contracts), and with the Fed Funds (-23,798 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

The US Treasury Bond leads the Bonds Market’s price performance

In the Bond Markets, the long US Treasury Bond was the biggest winner on the week with a modest 0.36% gain. This was followed by the Ten-Year Note, which rose by 0.34% on the week. The Five-Year Bond was slightly higher with a 0.24% rise and was followed by the Two-Year Bond, which rose by a similar 0.11% uptick.

Fed Funds were virtually unchanged at a 0.02% rise, while the 1-Month SOFR ticked up by 0.02%, and the 3-Month SOFR followed with a 0.01% edge higher.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (74 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (68 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (30 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (45.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (48.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (58.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (56.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (38.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (43.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (66.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (65.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (62.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (72.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (73.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (70.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (67.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (66.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (29.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (28.6 percent)

5-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (27 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-29 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (19.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (25.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-31.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-34.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (26.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (29.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (-5.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (11.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-28.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-18.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-22.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-13.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (7.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (2.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (20.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (5.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (10.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (7.6 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -74,504 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -23,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,706 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	64.7	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	61.5	1.8
– Net Position:	-74,504	59,457	15,047
– Gross Longs:	315,774	1,191,545	47,913
– Gross Shorts:	390,278	1,132,088	32,866
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	53.3	76.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-17.9	-15.6

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -564,314 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 24,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -589,139 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	58.4	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	53.7	0.1
– Net Position:	-564,314	563,506	808
– Gross Longs:	2,024,340	7,040,930	18,517
– Gross Shorts:	2,588,654	6,477,424	17,709
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	70.5	41.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-10.5	-1.3

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -57,619 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 8,889 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,508 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	61.4	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	57.0	0.0
– Net Position:	-57,619	57,550	69
– Gross Longs:	299,348	800,504	201
– Gross Shorts:	356,967	742,954	132
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	32.3	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.1	-20.1	-0.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,712,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -74,691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,637,324 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	80.6	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.6	45.7	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,712,015	1,638,978	73,037
– Gross Longs:	525,560	3,791,639	220,318
– Gross Shorts:	2,237,575	2,152,661	147,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	10.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.2	34.1	-16.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,552,929 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 33,911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,586,840 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	80.5	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	57.4	5.2
– Net Position:	-1,552,929	1,494,039	58,890
– Gross Longs:	656,801	5,190,375	393,143
– Gross Shorts:	2,209,730	3,696,336	334,253
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.6	43.8	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.6	-23.1	-41.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -823,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -39,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -784,063 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	78.7	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	63.1	7.2
– Net Position:	-823,624	799,342	24,282
– Gross Longs:	567,683	4,032,672	394,531
– Gross Shorts:	1,391,307	3,233,330	370,249
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	73.1	23.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.9	4.6	8.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -161,387 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 5,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,212 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	81.9	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	70.5	12.9
– Net Position:	-161,387	268,760	-107,373
– Gross Longs:	207,781	1,934,136	196,994
– Gross Shorts:	369,168	1,665,376	304,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	46.2	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	32.6	-12.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -27,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,633 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	74.1	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	76.6	7.6
– Net Position:	-58,996	-44,309	103,305
– Gross Longs:	197,953	1,324,620	239,238
– Gross Shorts:	256,949	1,368,929	135,933
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.9	34.7	52.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.3	33.8	-47.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -260,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 7,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -268,129 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	85.8	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	74.3	8.2
– Net Position:	-260,383	261,393	-1,010
– Gross Longs:	126,501	1,941,140	184,064
– Gross Shorts:	386,884	1,679,747	185,074
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.5	42.2	14.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-2.4	-14.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

12 Apr

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Brent Oil

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil with a gain of 4,691 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Bloomberg Index (-98,639 contracts), Natural Gas (-16,531 contracts), WTI Crude (-11,335 contracts), Gasoline (-8,734 contracts) and Heating Oil (-1,205 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Brent Crude and Bloomberg Commodity Index highlight weekly changes

Highlighting the Energy market changes this week was Brent Oil, which was the only market with a positive week in speculator bets. Brent Oil saw a sharp drop by over -18,000 contracts last week (March 31st) and rebounded by almost +5,000 contracts this week. Overall, the Brent Crude Oil speculator position remains in negative territory as this market is usually negative and incorporates a lot of hedging activity.

Next up, the Bloomberg Commodity Index positions dropped by the most on record, falling by almost -100,000 contracts this week after seeing an influx of positions by over +35,000 contracts last week (March 31st). The Bloomberg Commodity Index bets fell by -98,639 contracts this week, bringing the overall net position standing to -75,342 contracts. This means the Bloomberg Commodity Index is now at the lowest or most bearish level on record dating back to 2016, according to CFTC data.

Energy Markets Price Performance was lower across the board on the Iran war ceasefire.

In the energy markets, Gasoline fell the least this week with a -3.47% decline, followed by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which retreated by -4.46%. Natural Gas was down by over 6% with a drop by -6.13%.

The biggest losers on the week and most significantly affected by the Iran war ceasefire, were Brent Oil which fell by -13.91%, WTI Crude Oil, which dropped by -14.09%, and Heating Oil, which decreased strongly by -16.45% over the past five days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Heating Oil (55.2 percent), Gasoline (53.0 percent) and WTI Crude Oil (52.3 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, the Bloomberg Index (0.0 percent) and Natural Gas (14.4 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (52.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (56.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (36.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (30.1 percent)
Natural Gas (14.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (25.0 percent)
Gasoline (53.0 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (62.6 percent)
Heating Oil (55.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (56.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (100.0 percent)

Brent Oil & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Brent Oil (26.2 percent) and WTI Crude (9.5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Bloomberg Index (-63.8 percent) and Gasoline (-43.2 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Heating Oil (-10.5 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (9.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (23.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (26.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (0.6 percent)
Natural Gas (9.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (11.8 percent)
Gasoline (-43.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-22.5 percent)
Heating Oil (-10.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-7.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-63.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (34.7 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 202,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -11,335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 213,488 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	43.4	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	54.7	2.6
– Net Position:	202,153	-230,466	28,313
– Gross Longs:	381,615	883,576	81,673
– Gross Shorts:	179,462	1,114,042	53,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	46.3	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-4.2	-31.1

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -31,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 4,691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,815 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	40.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	30.1	3.2
– Net Position:	-31,124	27,416	3,708
– Gross Longs:	67,615	107,138	12,052
– Gross Shorts:	98,739	79,722	8,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	61.2	86.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.2	-32.7	37.7

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -183,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -16,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,456 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	36.7	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	26.3	2.2
– Net Position:	-183,987	162,087	21,900
– Gross Longs:	212,869	572,123	56,582
– Gross Shorts:	396,856	410,036	34,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	85.2	58.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-14.0	16.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -8,734 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,326 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	49.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.4	72.6	5.1
– Net Position:	59,592	-74,020	14,428
– Gross Longs:	80,253	158,736	30,682
– Gross Shorts:	20,661	232,756	16,254
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.0	37.8	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.2	37.2	9.5

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -1,205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,092 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	49.7	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	62.9	9.4
– Net Position:	8,887	-30,231	21,344
– Gross Longs:	34,892	113,696	42,973
– Gross Shorts:	26,005	143,927	21,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	37.8	76.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	9.1	-4.4

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -75,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -98,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,297 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.3	56.9	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.1	25.3	0.0
– Net Position:	-75,342	74,711	631
– Gross Longs:	100,140	134,711	657
– Gross Shorts:	175,482	60,000	26
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	25.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	74.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-63.8	64.0	-9.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Energy Financial News

12 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil, Cotton & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil, Cotton & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (13,685 contracts) with Cotton (12,970 contracts), Live Cattle (11,756 contracts) and Lean Hogs (2,750 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-43,938 contracts), Soybeans (-19,387 contracts), Wheat (-9,292 contracts), Sugar (-5,636 contracts), Soybean Meal (-3,330 contracts), Coffee (-3,349 contracts) and Cocoa (-471 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soybean Meal leads Soft Commodities price performance.

The price performance of Soft Commodities this week was led by Soybean Meal, which rose by roughly 5%, with a gain of 4.87% over the past five days. Cotton comes in next with a 3.30% gain, while Live Cattle rose by 2.85% on the week. Soybeans rounded out the leaders with a 1.38% rise.

On the downside, Cocoa was virtually unchanged on the week with a -0.09% decline, followed by Lean Hogs which fell by -0.72%. Next up, Corn was lower by -1.89% and was followed by Wheat which declined by -2.44%. Soybean Oil dipped by a similar -2.51%.

The biggest losers on the week were Coffee, which fell by -4.67%, and Sugar, which dropped by -8.27% over the past five days.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil, Soybeans & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (100 percent), Soybean Meal (90 percent) and Soybeans (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Wheat (88 percent) and Live Cattle (81 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (34 percent) and Coffee (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (75.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (81.8 percent)
Sugar (34.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (35.4 percent)
Coffee (45.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (48.3 percent)
Soybeans (89.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (94.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (93.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (90.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (91.9 percent)
Live Cattle (80.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (68.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (59.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (57.2 percent)
Cotton (75.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (67.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.4 percent)
Wheat (88.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (96.5 percent)

Cotton & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (54 percent) and Corn (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (35 percent), Sugar (33 percent) and Soybean Meal (29 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-8 percent) and Wheat (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (38.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (46.6 percent)
Sugar (32.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (35.4 percent)
Coffee (8.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.2 percent)
Soybeans (-0.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (35.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (29.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (45.2 percent)
Live Cattle (12.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.7 percent)
Cotton (53.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (62.0 percent)
Cocoa (-8.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.6 percent)
Wheat (-2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (40.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 290,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -43,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 334,757 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	40.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	53.3	10.8
– Net Position:	290,819	-232,969	-57,850
– Gross Longs:	459,961	735,945	138,149
– Gross Shorts:	169,142	968,914	195,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	21.9	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.4	-37.2	-42.6

SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -70,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -5,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,117 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	52.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	45.5	9.1
– Net Position:	-70,753	67,254	3,499
– Gross Longs:	193,215	487,724	87,929
– Gross Shorts:	263,968	420,470	84,430
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.3	67.0	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.9	-32.0	20.7

COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 21,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -3,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,056 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	38.7	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	51.0	5.2
– Net Position:	21,707	-21,687	-20
– Gross Longs:	50,143	68,102	9,061
– Gross Shorts:	28,436	89,789	9,081
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	57.2	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-8.4	-3.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 208,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -19,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 227,846 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	45.6	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	63.4	8.3
– Net Position:	208,459	-177,172	-31,287
– Gross Longs:	283,509	456,246	51,916
– Gross Shorts:	75,050	633,418	83,203
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.9	12.1	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-0.4	11.2

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 148,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 13,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 134,557 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	43.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.7	66.0	3.8
– Net Position:	148,242	-164,152	15,910
– Gross Longs:	196,916	317,878	43,469
– Gross Shorts:	48,674	482,030	27,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	97.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.2	-34.9	23.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 116,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -3,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,194 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	43.3	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	66.1	4.6
– Net Position:	116,864	-137,109	20,245
– Gross Longs:	168,116	260,240	48,019
– Gross Shorts:	51,252	397,349	27,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.4	8.5	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-30.3	3.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 104,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position uptick of 11,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,260 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	28.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	54.1	13.6
– Net Position:	104,016	-87,776	-16,240
– Gross Longs:	154,471	98,073	30,416
– Gross Shorts:	50,455	185,849	46,656
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.5	15.4	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-12.8	-6.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 46,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 2,750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,711 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.7	34.7	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	46.8	8.5
– Net Position:	46,461	-40,270	-6,191
– Gross Longs:	124,530	114,438	21,871
– Gross Shorts:	78,069	154,708	28,062
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	43.1	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.1	14.3	22.5

COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 61,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 12,970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,387 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	35.8	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	56.0	3.2
– Net Position:	61,357	-69,843	8,486
– Gross Longs:	131,279	124,058	19,645
– Gross Shorts:	69,922	193,901	11,159
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	23.7	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	53.8	-52.5	35.5

COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -22,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,601 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	50.6	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	39.8	5.4
– Net Position:	-22,072	22,199	-127
– Gross Longs:	44,385	103,762	10,928
– Gross Shorts:	66,457	81,563	11,055
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	8.9	-12.4

WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -9,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,415 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	35.0	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	31.5	6.4
– Net Position:	-18,707	17,642	1,065
– Gross Longs:	138,222	175,867	33,066
– Gross Shorts:	156,929	158,225	32,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	9.6	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	-2.6	31.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

10 Apr

Lithium Developer Lands Spot in US-Japan Critical Minerals Partnership

Source: Streetwise Reports (4/8/26)

Atlas Lithium Corp.’s (ATLX:NASDAQ) Neves Project in Brazil is being considered for financial backing by Japan and the U.S. governments.

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ) announced that its wholly-owned Neves Project in Brazil’s Lithium Valley has been highlighted in the Joint Fact Sheet for Japan-U.S. Critical Minerals Project Cooperation, according to a release on April 2.

This document, unveiled on March 20, by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry in collaboration with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, marks the Neves Project as the sole Brazil-based lithium initiative recognized in this context. The full document can be accessed online.

The Fact Sheet indicates that the governments of Japan and the United States are contemplating financial backing for the development of the Neves Project. This announcement follows closely on the heels of the U.S.-Japan Critical Minerals Investment Ministerial, which took place on March 14 in Tokyo involving key U.S. departments and Japan’s METI. Additionally, it comes after a summit on March 19 between Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and U.S. President Donald Trump. Both nations have committed to an action plan aimed at fortifying the secure and diversified supply chains of critical minerals, building on a prior agreement signed in Tokyo on October 28, 2025.

“The inclusion of the Neves Project in the Japan-U.S. Critical Minerals Joint Fact Sheet, with both the U.S. and Japanese governments considering financial support for our project, is a powerful recognition of the strategic value of our assets and the progress that our team has achieved,” Atlas Lithium Chief Executive Officer and Chairman Marc Fogassa said. “Together with our strategic partner Mitsui & Co., we remain focused on bringing the Neves Project into production and supplying high-quality lithium concentrate to the global market. We are also proud of working with the local communities in bringing progress to an economically disadvantaged area of Brazil.”

The Joint Fact Sheet lists several projects that could enhance the critical minerals supply chain, including Atlas Lithium’s Neves Project. This inclusion is significant, especially considering Atlas Lithium’s strategic partnership with Mitsui & Co., Ltd., a major Japanese trading and investment entity. In March 2024, Mitsui invested US$30 million in Atlas Lithium shares and secured an offtake agreement to purchase lithium concentrate from the Neves Project, thereby linking the project directly to Japan’s industrial sectors.

Fraser Institute Jurisdiction Rating
Atlas Lithium Corp.

Brazil (last modified 02/27/26)
Friendly Policies	75.17%
Best Practices Mineral Potential Index	77.78%
Socioeconomic Agreements/Community Development Conditions, aka Safety	25%
Political Stability	15%

Data from the Fraser Institute’s Mining Survey

Co. Takes ‘Critical Step’ Toward Production

In December 2025, the company announced that it is nearing the end of its search for a project management and construction supervision service provider for Neves. Situated in Minas Gerais, the Neves Project stands as Atlas Lithium’s premier lithium development endeavor, bolstered by a Definitive Feasibility Study with world-class project economics.

Atlas Lithium is in the process of selecting a firm that will oversee the planning, coordination, monitoring, and control of all construction activities at the site. This firm will ensure that the project adheres to the predetermined schedule, budget, scope, quality, safety, and performance standards. The company said it undertook a thorough evaluation process, reviewing five potential firms based on their technical expertise, experience with Brazilian mining projects, and their proposed management systems.

Vice President of Engineering and Project Management Officer Eduardo Queiroz emphasized the importance of this partnership, stating, “securing a top-tier project management partner is a critical step in our disciplined approach to making Atlas Lithium a producer of lithium concentrate in short order.” He further noted, “With our processing plant already in Brazil and key permits in place, we are methodically advancing toward production while maintaining our focus on cost discipline and schedule optimization.”

The lithium processing plant mentioned by Queiroz has already arrived in Brazil and is is now ready for assembly. Following assembly, pre-operational testing is expected to commence. Atlas Lithium anticipates finalizing the contract with the chosen project management firm early in 2026.

Furthermore, Atlas Lithium has secured all necessary permits for the Neves Project, which include installation, mining concession, water use rights, and vegetation clearance authorizations. The project plans to implement 100% dry-stacking for waste management, thereby eliminating the need for a tailings dam, and aims to recirculate over 95% of its process water, highlighting its commitment to sustainable mining practices.

Analyst: Co. Well-Capitalized to Achieve Commercial Production

On March 17, 2026, H.C. Wainwright & Co. analyst Heiko F. Ihle, CFA, maintained a Buy rating on Atlas Lithium and increased his price target from US$12.00 to US$12.50. Ihle cited the ongoing reduction of risks at Neves and the company’s advantageous cost structure as primary factors for the adjustment.

Ihle described 2026 as a crucial year for Atlas Lithium, noting the company’s focus on initiating Phase 1 of production at Neves, which includes the construction of a 150,000 tonne-per-year modular Dense Media Separation (DMS) plant. He mentioned that the company is transitioning from procurement to actual plant assembly and is also working on expanding its permits following a technical report in August 2025.

The analyst pointed out that Atlas Lithium appears well-capitalized to achieve commercial production in the near future, with a significant cash reserve and a manageable debt level. He also emphasized the company’s appeal as a potential merger and acquisition target due to its low projected operating costs and strategic location in Brazil’s “Lithium Valley.”

Ihle’s revised price target of US$12.50 is based on an increased net asset value (NAV) multiple, reflecting the project’s de-risking and a comprehensive valuation model that includes comparisons and financial projections. He highlighted the company’s strategic partnerships and off-take agreements as indicators of ongoing industry interest.

Finally, Ihle noted potential risks, including fluctuations in commodity prices, technical challenges in resource definition, and construction costs, which could impact the project’s progress and financial outcomes.

The Catalyst: AI Pushing Demand Worldwide

The AI industry’s expansion is significantly driving up the demand for lithium, primarily due to the increased need for lithium-iron phosphate batteries in data centers, according to Ivan Castano writing for Open Markets on March 18

These batteries are essential for maintaining a stable energy supply, crucial for operations like training large language models which consume substantial amounts of power. Unlike the smaller lithium-ion batteries used in EVs, these larger units are integral to Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). These facilities are becoming more common across the U.S. and globally, storing energy from renewable sources or the grid and releasing it during peak demand or power outages, thus ensuring continuous power supply to data centers.

The systems are also beneficial for solar energy providers, allowing them to store excess energy produced during peak sunlight and sell it in the evening, thereby stabilizing their income despite the intermittent nature of solar power. This shift is causing the lithium demand for energy storage to outpace that of the EV market. According to Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, last year saw a 51% increase in BESS demand compared to a 26% rise for EVs, although EVs still make up about 75% of the global battery demand.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ)

	Retail: 47%
	Insiders & Management: 26%
	Institutional: 20%
	Strategic Investors: 7%

^*Share Structure as of 4/8/2026

The market dynamics are shifting from an oversupply and lower prices to a scenario of scarce supply and rising prices, lifting lithium out of a three-year price dip. Prices have soared 120% over the past six months, with significant fluctuations such as a 46% price spike in January due to low inventories before the Chinese New Year. Andy Leyland, founder of SC Insights, predicts a tightening market, stating, “The market is looking pretty strong,” and anticipates a 24% demand increase versus a 19% supply increase by 2026. This growing market tightness is mirrored in the futures market, where there is a noticeable shift towards using CME Group Lithium futures as a risk management strategy, reflecting the industry’s need to hedge against price volatility amid supply disruptions and the EV industry’s evolving purchasing strategies.

In 2025, the global lithium market was valued at approximately US$32.38 billion and is projected to expand to US$96.45 billion by 2033, advancing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5% from 2026 to 2033, Grand View Research reported.

This growth is largely driven by the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), which rely heavily on lithium-ion batteries. The automotive sector, in particular, is expected to see robust growth due to stringent government regulations aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions from internal combustion engine vehicles, pushing automakers towards EV production.

Ownership and Share Structure¹

As for ownership and share structure, management owns approximately 26% of Atlas Lithium common shares. Strategic partner Mitsui & Co. Ltd. has 7%. Numerous institutions hold 20%. Retail investors own the rest.

Atlas Lithium has 27.7 million shares outstanding. Its market cap is ~US$130 million. Its 52-week range is US$3.54–8.25 per share.

Important Disclosures:

Atlas Lithium Corp. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$3,000 and US$6,000.
As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Atlas Lithium Corp.
Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

1. Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

Financial News Metals

10 Apr

Oil prices have once again approached 100 dollars per barrel

By JustMarkets

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.52%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.62%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed up 0.72%. The main driver of optimism was news that Israel is willing to consider negotiations with Lebanon. This eased investor fears of the entire region being dragged into a full‑scale war and allowed markets to enter a phase of confident consolidation near recent highs. Despite the positive sentiment on Wall Street, the overall atmosphere remains tense. Oil prices, once again surging toward 100 dollars per barrel, serve as a constant reminder that the Strait of Hormuz is still at risk of a complete blockade.

On Thursday, European stock Indices closed in the red, giving back part of Wednesday’s record rally. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.14%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) declined by 0.22%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) slipped by 0.15%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.05%. The shift in sentiment came after reports that the two‑week ceasefire between the US and Iran had already begun to crack. Tehran accused Washington of violating the terms of the truce, reigniting fears of renewed attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and a prolonged energy shortage.

Silver prices posted a strong rally, reaching 74.5 dollars per ounce. This rise reflected investor reaction to the critical instability of the 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran. Amid the renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp spike in oil prices to 99 dollars, silver regained its appeal as a safe‑haven asset. An additional driver was the weakening US dollar, which made precious metals more attractive for holders of other currencies.

The oil market was hit by a new wave of volatility: WTI prices jumped nearly 5%, reaching 99 dollars per barrel. This sharp rise almost erased the previous day’s optimism and followed reports that the two‑week ceasefire announced by Donald Trump was on the verge of collapse. Traders reacted instantly to news of increased military activity near the Strait of Hormuz and delays in tanker traffic, which brought the risk premium back into the market. Prices also received fundamental support from OPEC+, which reaffirmed its commitment to production cuts, and from fresh US data showing an unexpected decline in commercial crude inventories.

On Friday, US natural‑gas prices held at 2.67 dollars per MMBtu, the lowest level in a year and a half. While the oil market is shaken by uncertainty in the Middle East, the US gas sector shows remarkable resilience. The main pressure on prices comes from domestic fundamentals: oversupply and unseasonably warm weather, which meteorologists expect to persist across most of the US at least until April 24. The latest EIA report confirmed bearish concerns: gas inventories rose by 50 billion cubic feet for the week, exceeding market expectations.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.73%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.61%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 0.54%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.24%.

The Australian dollar confidently held above 0.707 USD, reaching a three‑week high. The currency is on track for its strongest weekly gain since mid‑January, supported by a temporary improvement in global risk appetite following the announcement of the two‑week ceasefire. Since the aussie is traditionally viewed as a barometer of global market sentiment, the decline in demand for the safe‑haven US dollar and hopes for de‑escalation in the Middle East provided strong support. Despite the optimism, the backdrop remains extremely tense due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. If direct negotiations with the Iranian delegation fail and the blockade persists, global supply chains could be hit hard – instantly cooling demand for risk assets such as the Australian dollar.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,824.66 +41.85 (+0.62%)

Dow Jones (US30) 48,185.80 +275.88 (+0.58%)

DAX (DE40) 23,806.99 −273.64 (−1.14%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,603.48 −5.40 (−0.05%)

USD Index 98.83 −0.31 (−0.31%)

News feed for: 2026.04.10

Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
China Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
China Producer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – NOK (MED)
Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (MED)
US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU (HIGH)
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

10 Apr

USD/JPY: Yen Fared Better, but Energy Rally Not Over

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY traded at 159.16 on Friday. The yen is retreating slightly but appears less weak than previously, amid a two-week truce between the US and Iran. The decline in oil prices following the announcement of the truce has partially reduced stagflationary risks and provided some support to the Japanese currency.

Investor focus is on the upcoming talks in Islamabad, where Vice President JD Vance will lead the US delegation. Meetings with the Iranian side are expected to clarify the prospects for further de-escalation.

However, sentiment remains subdued. Continued strikes in the region and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to put the fragile truce at risk, driving ** market uncertainty.

The yen has remained under pressure since the conflict began, losing approximately 2%. Investors are factoring in rising energy prices, which add to inflationary pressures while dampening Japan’s growth outlook.

The market is now awaiting signals from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ahead of the 28 April meeting, which could set the future direction of monetary policy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 158.85 level, currently extending up to 159.30. A move higher towards 159.85 (testing from below) is expected today. Subsequently, a potential decline towards the 157.72 level will be considered. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing upwards from low levels.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming a wave of growth towards the 159.82 level. A wave extension to the 160.00 level is possible. Thereafter, a downward wave to at least 158.85 is expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below the 80 level and pointing strictly downwards.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has stabilised as the yen shows tentative signs of recovery, benefiting from the temporary truce between the US and Iran and the resulting pullback in oil prices. However, the fragility of the ceasefire – underscored by continued strikes and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz – means that energy-driven risks remain very much alive. The yen has lost approximately 2% since the conflict began, and market attention now turns to upcoming diplomatic talks in Islamabad and BOJ Governor Ueda’s signals ahead of the 28 April policy meeting. Technically, a short-term bounce in USD/JPY appears likely, but the broader trajectory will depend on whether de-escalation holds or tensions reignite.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Apr

Water conservation works, but climate change is outpacing it: Phoenix, Denver and Las Vegas offer a glimpse of the future

By Renee Obringer, Penn State and Dave White, Arizona State University

When a drought turns into an urban water crisis, a city’s first step is often to limit lawn watering and launch a campaign to encourage everyone to conserve. It might raise water-use rates or offer incentives for installing low-flow devices.

While demand management techniques like these have had a lot of success in reducing water use, our new research suggests that they may not be effective enough in the face of climate change.

We looked at three cities in the Colorado River Basin – Phoenix, Las Vegas and Denver – to understand what each could do to increase demand management amid water shortages and how far those methods could go as temperatures rise and the Colorado River’s flow weakens.

The results suggest the region needs to be thinking about bigger solutions.

Colorado River states’ immediate challenge

The Colorado River provides drinking water to nearly 40 million people and irrigation for over 5.5 million acres of cropland. But it has experienced a significant drop in water availability in recent decades due in part to rising demand for water and a long-running megadrought in the Southwest.

To ensure that water is shared across boundaries, the seven states within the basin agreed to the Colorado River Compact in 1922, setting limits on water withdrawals from the river. Since then, the region has adopted additional rules, agreements and policies, collectively termed the “Law of the River.” But despite this compact, which the states are renegotiating in 2026, the basin’s water supply is shrinking.

Research shows that the region is likely to experience more intense, frequent droughts that last longer due to climate change, putting the water supplies for farms, people and energy systems at risk.

As researchers who study the impact of climate change on water systems, we wanted to see if demand management techniques could help under these intensifying conditions.

Getting people involved can change attitudes

Many demand management policies are reactive and only go into effect when sources run low.

These reactive policies can be successful during the scarcity period, but there is often a rebound effect: Water consumption can actually increase afterward.

We integrated survey data with a computer model of water availability and demonstrated that there can be long-term benefits to the local water supply if communities encourage positive attitudes toward conservation.

The survey focused on how people think about water conservation and climate change, drawing on a large body of research that shows people who care about the environment often take eco-friendly actions. Building off these ideas, we segmented the population into groups that shared similar views on water conservation and found that a large proportion of residents supported water conservation but weren’t actively participating in conservation programs within their communities.

We then used the computer model to explore how changing attitudes, and subsequent conservation behavior, could affect water supplies under climate change.

When participatory demand management works

Our research shows that individual actions, when implemented by a lot of people, can measurably improve water supplies’ reliability.

A great example of the benefits of long-term behavioral changes is Las Vegas.

Las Vegas is in many ways viewed as a city of excess; however, since 2002, the city has reduced its per-capita water use by nearly 60%, even as the population grew by more than 50%. It reached these savings through efforts to reduce seasonal irrigation, replace water-intensive landscaping and require new developments to be sustainable, along with the treatment and reuse of wastewater. Today, Las Vegas recycles nearly all of the water used indoors and returns it to Lake Mead.

Phoenix, another desert city, also runs successful conservation programs. These programs focus on converting grass lawns to desert-friendly landscaping and encouraging owners to fix leaks and install smart meters and low-flow devices. These programs led to a 20% reduction in water use over 20 years, while the population grew by about 40%.

Demand management is not always enough

These cities have shown that demand management can work, but there are limits on how much these techniques can do as water supplies dry up.

When we added projections of future climate change to our model, we found that conditions could lead to so little water being available that these demand management methods won’t be able to keep up.

In other words, climate change may create situations where water supplies are still severely limited, even after people reduced their consumption by up to 25%.

For example, under a plausible, moderately high emissions scenario, Phoenix’s available surface water supply was forecast to drop below the historical average by 2060. Even when we simulated higher participation in conservation programs, there was no noticeable change in the water availability, suggesting that any savings from reducing demand were counteracted by losses from upstream flow reductions. Encouraging people to use less water is a start, but there is a limit to how much people can conserve.

We found similar results in Denver under a moderate emissions scenario and in Las Vegas under a moderately high emissions scenario, indicating that even moderate climate change could lead to extreme scarcity conditions that are not manageable through demand-side changes alone.

What else cities can do

In these cases, it may be necessary to find other creative water sources, such as water reuse, desalination or limiting consumption in other sectors, such as agriculture or energy, to maintain the municipal supply.

These solutions, however, take time and money to implement. Desalination is incredibly expensive. A recently built desalination plant in Carlsbad, California, cost US$1 billion – four times the initial estimate.

Other solutions, such as reducing agricultural water use, require significant buy-in from local farmers and could result in producing less food.

Reducing the water consumed for electricity generation would require significant investment in renewable energy technologies that have lower water requirements than fossil fuels and nuclear energy.

While large-scale solutions like water reuse systems and desalination can be expensive, these costs might be necessary to maintain adequate water supply in the region, because simply encouraging people to use less won’t be enough.

About the Authors:

Renee Obringer, Assistant Professor in the Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Penn State and Dave White, Director of the Global Institute of Sustainability and Innovation, Arizona State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

09 Apr

Stock indices surged sharply amid the 14‑day ceasefire in the Middle East

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, the US stock indices staged a historic rally: the Dow Jones jumped more than 1,300 points, marking its best performance in a year. Investors ignored the Federal Reserve’s warnings about stagflation risks and focused instead on what many called a “diplomatic miracle” – the White House’s readiness for direct negotiations with Iran. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 2.58%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 2.51%. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed up 2.80%. Despite ongoing pockets of conflict in Lebanon and the Persian Gulf, the market appears confident in the stability of the 14‑day ceasefire. The artificial‑intelligence and airline sectors were the biggest winners of the day. Shares of giants such as Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta surged between 4% and 10%, as falling oil prices and stabilizing bond yields restored investor appetite for risk assets.

The minutes of the March FOMC meeting confirm that the Federal Reserve has shifted into a mode of “heightened readiness.” The introduction of a two‑sided formulation in the rate discussion is a clear signal to markets: the Fed no longer guarantees that the next move will be a cut. Previously, investors debated only the timing of policy easing; now the hawkish wing openly acknowledges the possibility of additional hikes if inflationary pressures, fueled by geopolitics, fail to ease. The fact that most participants see risks to both prices and employment underscores the real threat of stagflation.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened confidently, reaching 1.38 per US dollar amid a broad retreat of the greenback. Paradoxically, the loonie managed to rise even as WTI crude prices collapsed due to news of the temporary ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Normally, falling oil prices drag the Canadian currency lower, but this time the sharp drop in the US dollar index to a four‑week low proved to be the dominant factor, giving the loonie a net gain for the session. However, the Canadian dollar still looks weaker than currencies such as the Australian dollar and the British pound, which are less dependent on the energy sector and recover more quickly when risk appetite returns. For the Bank of Canada, the current situation creates a complex backdrop: a stronger currency helps contain imported inflation, but a sharp decline in oil revenues could negatively affect the country’s trade balance in the long run.

On Wednesday, European markets experienced a true triumph: indices soared to monthly highs. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 5.06%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 4.49%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) climbed 3.94%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 2.51%. The decisive factor was the 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran, which allowed the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The sharp drop in oil and natural‑gas prices in Europe became a powerful catalyst for the industrial and banking sectors. Lower energy costs immediately improved margin outlooks for giants such as Siemens, Safran, and Schneider, whose shares surged more than 10%. The banking sector, represented by Santander, UniCredit, and BNP Paribas, gained around 8% amid bond‑market stabilization and falling yields.

The Swiss franc (CHF) strengthened to 0.789 per US dollar, reaching a two‑week high. This movement resulted from a paradoxical combination of factors: declining global demand for the dollar as a safe‑haven asset and Switzerland’s own inflation dynamics. Under normal conditions, a strong franc effectively restrains inflation by making imports cheaper. However, the current scale of the energy crisis is so severe that the currency buffer is no longer sufficient. This creates a unique situation in which rising energy prices fully offset the deflationary impact of a strong national currency. For the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the current environment suggests a pause in active policy measures.

On Thursday, WTI crude prices staged a sharp rebound, rising more than 2% to 97 dollars per barrel. The market quickly realized that the triumphant ceasefire headlines had collided with harsh reality: the “silence window” was already at risk of collapsing within the first 24 hours. Renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon triggered a heated dispute over the boundaries of the agreement. Tehran insists that Lebanon is part of the deal, while Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump confirmed that the campaign against Hezbollah is not included in the US-Iran arrangement. Nevertheless, hope for diplomacy remains. US Vice President J.D. Vance, who is leading the American delegation, is heading to Islamabad for direct talks with Iranian representatives this weekend.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 5.39%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 2.84%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 3.09%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) climbed by 2.55%.

The offshore yuan (CNH) is holding at 6.83 per US dollar, hovering near a three‑year high. The resilience of the Chinese currency amid global volatility is explained by Beijing’s unique position: the yuan has strengthened by 1% over the past month and by 2.4% since the beginning of the year. Investors view China as a relative “safe harbor” thanks to its massive oil reserves and stable energy‑supply chains, which have proven less vulnerable to the Middle East crisis than those of other Asian economies. Market attention is now shifting to China’s macroeconomic data, which will be released on Friday. Consumer inflation (CPI) is expected to show moderate growth around 1.3%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) may return to annual growth for the first time since 2022. If these projections are confirmed, it would signal a recovery in domestic demand and industrial activity, giving the People’s Bank of China more room for maneuver.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,782.81 +165.96 (+2.51%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,909.92 +1,325.46 (+2.85%)

DAX (DE40) 24,080.63 +1,159.04 (+5.06%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,608.88 +260.09 (+2.51%)

USD Index 99.03 −0.83 (−0.83%)

News feed for: 2026.04.09

German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3) – MXN (MED)
US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)
US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

09 Apr

EUR/USD on the Plus Side: Middle East Truce Proves Fragile

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD rose to 1.1667 on Thursday. The US dollar partially recouped its losses from the previous session, as market sentiment remains cautious amid a fragile truce between the US and Iran.

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains tense. According to Iranian media, the passage of tankers is still restricted following new strikes in the region. Iranian representatives have alleged violations of several ceasefire conditions.

The dollar fell sharply the previous day following the announcement of a two-week truce, which led to a drop in oil prices and temporarily eased inflation fears.

An additional factor was the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. Some participants acknowledged the possibility of raising rates to contain inflation, though many still anticipate subsequent policy easing.

Investor attention is now focused on macroeconomic data, including consumer spending reports, the PCE index, and the upcoming CPI release, which will provide further insight into inflation. All of these could determine the near-term direction of markets.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market is forming a consolidation range around 1.1683. A downward wave is expected, with a continuation to 1.1606 as a local target. Subsequently, a move higher back to 1.1683 is anticipated. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero but pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum and the potential for the downtrend to persist.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next downward wave to the 1.1616 level. After reaching this level, an increase to 1.1666 is expected, followed by a further decline to 1.1494. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains on the front foot, though the dollar has managed to claw back some ground as the US-Iran truce shows signs of strain. Reports of continued restrictions on tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz and alleged ceasefire violations have reintroduced caution into markets. The Fed minutes revealed a divided committee, with some members open to rate hikes while others lean towards eventual easing, adding to the uncertainty. With key US inflation and consumer data on the horizon, the pair’s direction remains uncertain. Technically, near-term downside appears likely, but the broader trend will depend on whether the fragile truce holds or geopolitical tensions reignite.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Apr

Why the Persian Gulf has more oil and gas than anywhere else on Earth

By Scott L. Montgomery, University of Washington It has been said that Persian Gulf countries are both blessed and cursed by their vast oil and gas reserves. Geologic forces over millions of years have meant the region is an energy-rich global flash point, as it is now with a war underway that’s causing a global energy crisis.

As a petroleum geologist who has studied the region, I still find myself amazed at the size of its hydrocarbon endowment. For instance, there are more than 30 supergiant fields, each holding 5 billion barrels or more of oil, around the Persian Gulf. And wells in the region produce two to five times more oil each day than even the best wells in the North Sea and Russia.

Modern geoscience has identified several key factors of rocks that make a region particularly rich in petroleum, including their ability to generate and hold hydrocarbons. In the Persian Gulf region, all of these factors are at or near optimal levels.

For sheer abundance and ease of production, it simply doesn’t get any better than the Persian Gulf region.

A map of the Persian Gulf region shows locations of oil and gas fields. — The Persian Gulf region is rich in oil fields, marked in green, and gas fields, marked in red.
Central Intelligence Agency via Library of Congress

A quick history

Humans knew about the presence of hydrocarbons in the area long before flooding created the Persian Gulf at the end of the last ice age, between 14,000 and 6,000 years ago. Natural seeps of oil and gas are common along rivers and valleys in many parts of the region. Thousands of years before the start of the Common Era people used bitumen, a form of heavy oil, for building mortar and to waterproof boats.

The first modern oil discovery came in 1908 at a known seepage site in western Iran. In the 1950s and ’60s, an era of rapid expansion in oil and gas exploration, it became clear that no other region on Earth was likely to have a similar abundance.

Other areas with huge volumes of oil and gas have been found, such as West Siberia in Russia and, more recently, the Permian Basin in the U.S., but none compare either with the scale of reserves or the high rates at which oil and gas can be produced in the Persian Gulf.

Geologic setting

The Persian Gulf region is located where two continental plates are colliding: the Arabian Plate to the southwest and the Eurasian Plate to the east and north. This collision has been happening for about 35 million years and has resulted in a dynamic setting where rock layers have been bent and broken and, at deeper levels, transformed by significant heat and pressure.

Geologic features differ a great deal between the two sides of the Gulf. On the Iranian side, the the Zagros Mountains stretch 1,100 miles (1,800 kilometers) from the Gulf of Oman to the Turkish border. Part of the great Alpine-Himalayan mountain system, the Zagros are made up of highly folded and broken rocks that formed over the past 60 million years from the collisions of Africa, Arabia and India with Eurasia.

On the Arabian side of the Gulf, that type of bending and fracturing didn’t occur. Instead, the compressive forces of collision warped a rigid platform of deep, hard rock known as “basement rock” into broad, dome-like structures of enormous size, extending for tens, even hundreds, of square miles.

Underlying the Persian Gulf itself is a basin filled with debris eroded from the rising of the Zagros Mountains. In its deeper portions, the basin was subjected to high temperatures and pressures necessary for the generation of oil and gas.

Overall, it is an excellent setting for generating and trapping hydrocarbons on a large scale.

An overhead view of a folded and rumpled landscape. — A satellite view of an area of the southwestern Zagros Mountains shows long ridges and valleys, evidence of tectonic plates colliding.
NASA via Flickr

Rocks that make oil

Oil and gas form from organic material such as marine zooplankton and phytoplankton, originally concentrated in shales, mud-rich limestones and other rocks exposed to elevated temperatures and pressures. When rocks are composed of at least 2% organic material, they are considered to be high quality for oil and gas generation.

The Gulf region has a particularly large number of layers of such source rocks, some of which are especially thick, widespread and organically rich. Examples are the Hanifa and Tuwaiq mountain formations on the Arabian side of the Gulf, which formed during the Jurassic period, about 200 million to 145 million years ago, and the Kazhdumi formation in Iran, which formed in the Cretaceous period, about 145 to 66 million years ago. These rocks have between 1% and 13% organic content, and even more in some places.

Oil and gas structures

The region’s bent and fractured rock layers, and its domes, are well suited for trapping hydrocarbons.

Folds of the Zagros, which are legendary for geologists due to their spectacular forms on satellite imagery, contain hundreds of billions of barrels of oil and cubic meters of natural gas. A glance at a map of oil and gas in the Persian Gulf region will show a northwest-southeast trend of long, sausage-shaped fields reflective of major fold structures. These features actually include hundreds of individual fields of varied size, reaching from southern Iran through northeastern Iraq.

On the Arabian Plate, the large dome structures have formed especially large oil and gas accumulations. These include Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia, the largest in the world, which could produce over 70 billion barrels of crude oil. The South Pars-North Dome gas field, shared by Qatar and Iran, could produce at least 1,300 trillion cubic feet (46 billion cubic meters) of gas – equivalent in energy content to more than 200 billion barrels of oil.

The most important reservoir rocks are limestones in which portions have been partly dissolved, enhancing the ability for oil and gas to move through them. In Zagros reservoirs, fluid flows through fractures created by the folding and faulting related to plate collisions. And in places such as the Arab-D reservoir at the Ghawar Field in Saudi Arabia and the Asmari limestone in many Zagros fields, these high-quality oil-storage rocks cover huge areas – hundreds and even thousands of square kilometers.

Nothing on this scale exists anywhere else on the planet, onshore or offshore, testifying to the unique petroleum geology of the Persian Gulf region.

Future possibilities

The combined result of these factors is that roughly half of the world’s conventional oil reserves and 40% of its gas lie beneath just 3% of the Earth’s land surface.

U.S. Geological Survey assessments suggest that, even after more than a century of drilling and production, large amounts of oil and gas remain to be discovered in the Persian Gulf region. In a 2012 report covering the Arabian Peninsula and Zagros Mountains, the agency estimated there could be as much as 86 billion barrels of oil and 336 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the rocks, in addition to the amounts that have already been discovered.

More oil and gas could also be produced using the horizontal drilling and fracking techniques pioneered in the U.S. in the 2000s and 2010s. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now trying those methods in their petroleum fields. It’s too early to say how successful they may be, but research indicates they could allow even more production.

About the Author:

Scott L. Montgomery, Lecturer in International Studies, University of Washington

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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