InvestMacro

AUD/USD Stabilises as Traders Await Economic Signals

The AUD/USD pair is navigating the week starting with a steady tone, trading around 0.6590. After a significant drop last Friday, triggered by disappointment over China’s economic stimulus measures, the pair finds a momentary respite as it consolidates recent movements.

China’s announcement of a significant debt reduction and support for local governments and economic growth fell short of full transparency, leaving investors wanting more details. Given China’s crucial role as Australia’s top trading partner, any economic shifts there have a pronounced impact on the AUD’s performance.

The ongoing uncertainties surrounding the implications of Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential win also continue to influence market sentiment, particularly regarding U.S.-China relations.

This week is pivotal for Australian data with the release of Q3 payroll statistics and overall employment data, which are essential for assessing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) future monetary policy decisions. Additionally, RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s participation in a regulatory panel might offer fresh insights into the central bank’s views on inflation and economic demand.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Currently, AUD/USD is hovering around 0.6589 within a tight consolidation range. Anticipations lean towards a downward breakout towards 0.6544, potentially extending to 0.6494 before reversing. Upon reaching these levels, a reversal towards 0.6715 may be considered, with an interim target at 0.6600. The MACD indicator supports a bearish outlook in the short term, as it points downwards from above the zero line.

On the hourly chart, after completing a decline to 0.6557 and a subsequent correction to 0.6600, expectations are for a further dip to 0.6544. Success in reaching this level may prompt a rebound to 0.6600, testing from below before possibly resuming the downward trend towards 0.6494. The stochastic oscillator, currently below the 50 mark, underscores the potential for further declines.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Nov

Currency Speculators boosted Euro bets, cut GBP & Yen bets on Election Day

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Swiss Franc

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (28,651 contracts) with the Swiss Franc (4,017 contracts), Australian Dollar (3,460 contracts) and Bitcoin (412 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-21,272 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-19,350 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-8,256 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-7,730 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,032 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-3,950 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-1,589 contracts) also seeing decreased bets on the week.

Currency Speculators boosted Euro bets, cut GBP & Yen bets on Election Day

Highlighting the COT currency’s data for the week was the sharp changes in positioning on the US Presidential election.

The Euro currency positions jumped by over +28,000 net contracts on the election day of Tuesday November 5th. The Euro positions had been falling sharply recently as speculators cut their bets for five straight weeks and for seven out of the previous eight weeks prior to Tuesday. This was an 8-week drop by -150,322 contracts for the Euro and had dropped the overall standing to -50,304 contracts on October 29th before this week’s turnaround.

Despite this week’s boost in bets, the Euro exchange rate had a tough week and fell by over 1 percent against the US Dollar. The Euro has declined in five out of the past six weeks and has now slid from trading at 1.12 in late September to a 1.0729 close this week.

The British pound speculator bets this week dropped by over -21,000 contracts and decreased for the fifth consecutive week. The GBP speculator positions have fallen by a total of -48,681 contracts over these last five weeks and this weakness has brought the overall speculator standing down to a 19-week low, dating back to June 25th. The overall speculator position does remain bullish at a total of 45,084 contracts and has been in a continuous bullish level since May 21st, 2024.

The GBP exchange also has been on the weaker side lately and has now fallen from near 1.3400 in late September to this week’s closing price of approximately 1.2912.

The Japanese yen bets saw a big slide this week and the yen bets have been lower in each of the past six weeks. The total decline of spec bets in the past six weeks has reached -110,178 contracts and has taken the overall speculator standing down from a total of +66,011 contracts on September 17th to this week’s level of -44,167 contracts.

The yen exchange versus the USD has declined for six out of the past eight weeks with the US Dollar (USDJPY currency pair) going from around the 140.75 exchange rate in late September to this week’s close at approximately 152.60.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (98 percent) leads the currency markets this week. The British Pound (56 percent) and the Japanese Yen (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (5 percent), the Canadian Dollar (9 percent), the EuroFX (12 percent) and Bitcoin (19.5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (8.0 percent)
EuroFX (12.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (65.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (56.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (63.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (40.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (32.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (12.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (98.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (95.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (25.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (46.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (48.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (40.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (48.0 percent)
Bitcoin (19.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (10.5 percent)

Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (30 percent) and the Brazilian Real (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (9 percent) and Bitcoin (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-49 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-44 percent), EuroFX (-39 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-1.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-0.2 percent)
EuroFX (-39.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-50.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-18.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (1.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-44.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-32.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-21.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-34.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-49.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-42.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (30.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (48.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-13.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-0.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (9.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (13.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (23.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (26.6 percent)
Bitcoin (1.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-19.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 95 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.0	19.5	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.7	19.6	10.1
– Net Position:	95	-46	-49
– Gross Longs:	20,332	6,004	3,049
– Gross Shorts:	20,237	6,050	3,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.7	94.0	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	-1.9	19.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	59.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	59.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-21,653	617	21,036
– Gross Longs:	159,900	381,704	75,889
– Gross Shorts:	181,553	381,087	54,853
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.1	88.6	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-39.3	42.1	-45.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,272 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	25.7	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	51.0	11.4
– Net Position:	45,084	-55,560	10,476
– Gross Longs:	120,737	56,459	35,517
– Gross Shorts:	75,653	112,019	25,041
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	39.3	84.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	19.4	-14.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -44,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,817 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	57.7	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	37.6	16.6
– Net Position:	-44,167	47,295	-3,128
– Gross Longs:	60,334	135,946	35,953
– Gross Shorts:	104,501	88,651	39,081
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	45.9	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.0	45.9	-35.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,998 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	76.5	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.2	24.4	25.3
– Net Position:	-29,981	39,519	-9,538
– Gross Longs:	8,107	58,057	9,674
– Gross Shorts:	38,088	18,538	19,212
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	63.9	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.7	29.5	-34.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -175,229 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	81.1	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.0	27.3	10.1
– Net Position:	-175,229	180,918	-5,689
– Gross Longs:	26,816	272,938	28,368
– Gross Shorts:	202,045	92,020	34,057
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	90.6	14.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-49.1	49.8	-34.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,516 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.6	33.3	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	51.2	13.9
– Net Position:	30,976	-31,759	783
– Gross Longs:	91,488	59,108	25,478
– Gross Shorts:	60,512	90,867	24,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.3	11.0	52.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.0	-16.2	-38.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -8,199 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	57.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.3	41.4	8.2
– Net Position:	-8,199	9,620	-1,421
– Gross Longs:	21,855	34,368	3,501
– Gross Shorts:	30,054	24,748	4,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.1	73.2	35.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	19.3	-48.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 31,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,950 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.6	48.6	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	67.4	5.3
– Net Position:	31,095	-27,000	-4,095
– Gross Longs:	65,501	69,905	3,587
– Gross Shorts:	34,406	96,905	7,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.7	56.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-7.7	-14.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,269 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	43.0	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.0	22.4	4.7
– Net Position:	-12,525	13,371	-846
– Gross Longs:	30,318	27,929	2,214
– Gross Shorts:	42,843	14,558	3,060
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.2	61.7	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-21.9	-7.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,457 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.2	6.0	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	86.7	3.1	2.9
– Net Position:	-1,457	927	530
– Gross Longs:	26,303	1,907	1,443
– Gross Shorts:	27,760	980	913
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.5	86.6	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-4.1	4.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

10 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines for the metals was Gold (-23,324 contracts) with Silver (-7,085 contracts), Platinum (-6,502 contracts), Palladium (-1,214 contracts), Steel (-261 contracts) and Copper (-69 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Platinum

Silver (84 percent), Gold (77 percent), Palladium (75 percent) and Copper (55 percent) all are in bullish levels and above their midpoint 3-Year scores currently (above 50 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (77.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (86.0 percent)
Silver (83.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (92.5 percent)
Copper (55.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (55.3 percent)
Platinum (84.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (100.0 percent)
Palladium (75.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (84.0 percent)
Steel (94.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (95.7 percent)

Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (22 percent) and Steel (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (11 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-23 percent), Silver (-11 percent) and Copper (-9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-22.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-11.9 percent)
Silver (-11.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.7 percent)
Copper (-8.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (3.8 percent)
Platinum (11.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.1 percent)
Palladium (22.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (33.3 percent)
Steel (12.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (14.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 255,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 278,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.4	13.1	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	63.9	4.5
– Net Position:	255,329	-283,059	27,730
– Gross Longs:	336,816	73,287	52,637
– Gross Shorts:	81,487	356,346	24,907
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.2	20.4	71.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.8	20.4	12.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 53,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.0	20.1	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	69.2	6.4
– Net Position:	53,346	-74,243	20,897
– Gross Longs:	73,980	30,347	30,527
– Gross Shorts:	20,634	104,590	9,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.6	12.3	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	8.4	6.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -69 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,739 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	32.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	46.5	3.8
– Net Position:	23,670	-34,211	10,541
– Gross Longs:	101,996	82,982	20,008
– Gross Shorts:	78,326	117,193	9,467
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.3	41.0	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	4.7	24.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 29,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,502 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.2	17.0	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	58.8	3.5
– Net Position:	29,041	-35,774	6,733
– Gross Longs:	55,780	14,515	9,736
– Gross Shorts:	26,739	50,289	3,003
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.6	12.7	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.0	-14.0	24.9

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,453 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	44.4	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.0	30.3	6.9
– Net Position:	-3,667	2,591	1,076
– Gross Longs:	6,398	8,128	2,341
– Gross Shorts:	10,065	5,537	1,265
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.1	22.5	85.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-28.8	47.0

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	68.2	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	67.1	0.7
– Net Position:	-414	286	128
– Gross Longs:	6,792	17,382	308
– Gross Shorts:	7,206	17,096	180
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.7	5.7	46.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-13.0	3.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

10 Nov

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 1-Month & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 1-Month & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month (128,987 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (82,913 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (45,626 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (17,066 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-129,805 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-86,938 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-42,478 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-37,405 contracts) and with the 2-Year Bonds (-6,998 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (89 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (70 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (59 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (0 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (59.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (83.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (5.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (30.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (22.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (31.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (39.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (70.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (64.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (88.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (67.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (31.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (0.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (55.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (57.6 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (40 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 3-Months (-41 percent), the Fed Funds (-36 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-28 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-23 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-35.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-4.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-27.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-28.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-12.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (19.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (18.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-23.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-13.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (40.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (19.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (0.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-16.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-1.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-24.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-40.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-37.1 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -129,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 153,705 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	63.2	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	64.4	2.4
– Net Position:	23,900	-17,536	-6,364
– Gross Longs:	175,995	918,030	27,974
– Gross Shorts:	152,095	935,566	34,338
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.0	38.8	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.5	32.6	23.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -94,627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -42,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	58.3	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	57.3	0.4
– Net Position:	-94,627	97,514	-2,887
– Gross Longs:	1,459,856	5,974,749	37,490
– Gross Shorts:	1,554,483	5,877,235	40,377
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	44.6	86.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.7	40.9	-2.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -149,036 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 128,987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -278,023 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	64.0	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	50.0	0.1
– Net Position:	-149,036	149,470	-434
– Gross Longs:	144,949	686,481	371
– Gross Shorts:	293,985	537,011	805
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	68.3	52.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	1.4	1.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,486,359 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,479,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	79.7	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.5	49.4	2.5
– Net Position:	-1,486,359	1,333,658	152,701
– Gross Longs:	516,573	3,510,416	264,257
– Gross Shorts:	2,002,932	2,176,758	111,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.9	84.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.9	34.8	-10.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,767,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -86,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,680,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	84.9	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.6	59.1	4.1
– Net Position:	-1,767,409	1,614,843	152,566
– Gross Longs:	464,380	5,316,837	412,049
– Gross Shorts:	2,231,789	3,701,994	259,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	82.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	22.9	-16.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -818,270 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 82,913 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -901,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	77.1	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	61.6	8.2
– Net Position:	-818,270	707,726	110,544
– Gross Longs:	451,405	3,519,123	486,142
– Gross Shorts:	1,269,675	2,811,397	375,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.8	65.4	89.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.6	-24.1	-2.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -140,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -37,405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	75.1	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	65.7	12.6
– Net Position:	-140,439	204,526	-64,087
– Gross Longs:	312,505	1,637,544	211,011
– Gross Shorts:	452,944	1,433,018	275,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.2	58.1	74.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.3	31.4	-3.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -37,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,817 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	62.9	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	64.9	7.1
– Net Position:	-37,751	-36,563	74,314
– Gross Longs:	427,232	1,182,686	207,708
– Gross Shorts:	464,983	1,219,249	133,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.3	16.6	69.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.0	-25.8	-26.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -264,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 45,626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -310,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	78.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	63.3	10.4
– Net Position:	-264,408	263,521	887
– Gross Longs:	161,812	1,394,705	186,882
– Gross Shorts:	426,220	1,131,184	185,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.8	25.4	6.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	12.3	-37.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

10 Nov

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Oil

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (19,344 contracts) with Soybean Oil (12,193 contracts), Lean Hogs (10,363 contracts), Soybeans (3,077 contracts) and Wheat (350 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-12,801 contracts), Sugar (-4,622 contracts), Live Cattle (-2,891 contracts), Coffee (-2,324 contracts), Cocoa (-739 contracts) with and Cotton (-580 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent) and Coffee (87 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (83 percent), Live Cattle (64 percent) and Wheat (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (22 percent) and Soybeans (26 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Corn (46.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (44.5 percent)
Sugar (29.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (30.6 percent)
Coffee (87.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (89.5 percent)
Soybeans (25.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (24.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (83.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (76.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (33.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (38.5 percent)
Live Cattle (64.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (67.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (100.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (90.4 percent)
Cotton (21.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.2 percent)
Cocoa (47.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (48.1 percent)
Wheat (53.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (53.6 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (59 percent) and Live Cattle (46 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (32 percent) and Corn (21 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-13 percent), Wheat (-8 percent) and Coffee (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (21.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (19.0 percent)
Sugar (-13.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.7 percent)
Coffee (-5.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.7 percent)
Soybeans (1.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (10.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (31.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (40.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-19.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-6.6 percent)
Live Cattle (46.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (55.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (58.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (59.9 percent)
Cotton (2.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (9.4 percent)
Cocoa (0.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (3.7 percent)
Wheat (-7.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 102,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 19,344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	45.0	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	48.6	11.0
– Net Position:	102,648	-60,229	-42,419
– Gross Longs:	422,877	753,738	141,285
– Gross Shorts:	320,229	813,967	183,704
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	54.5	51.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.2	-21.6	-5.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 78,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,622 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	49.9	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	63.0	5.6
– Net Position:	78,221	-113,560	35,339
– Gross Longs:	216,399	430,632	84,008
– Gross Shorts:	138,178	544,192	48,669
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	63.8	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	7.8	13.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,977 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	39.1	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	69.1	2.7
– Net Position:	62,977	-65,439	2,462
– Gross Longs:	75,196	85,251	8,280
– Gross Shorts:	12,219	150,690	5,818
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	13.0	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	7.5	-34.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -88,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92,060 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	57.5	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	44.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-88,983	108,012	-19,029
– Gross Longs:	151,032	486,196	49,173
– Gross Shorts:	240,015	378,184	68,202
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.6	75.4	62.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-1.8	7.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 76,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	49.1	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	64.7	4.4
– Net Position:	76,538	-86,100	9,562
– Gross Longs:	161,106	271,065	33,800
– Gross Shorts:	84,568	357,165	24,238
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	20.4	51.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.8	-31.5	21.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,125 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	46.0	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	52.5	5.6
– Net Position:	14,324	-38,609	24,285
– Gross Longs:	140,103	273,367	57,836
– Gross Shorts:	125,779	311,976	33,551
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.3	62.4	65.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.9	18.9	3.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 78,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,729 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.4	33.3	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	48.7	13.4
– Net Position:	78,838	-55,259	-23,579
– Gross Longs:	147,783	118,861	24,364
– Gross Shorts:	68,945	174,120	47,943
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.0	54.8	1.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.1	-40.7	-35.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,441 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.1	30.1	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	48.4	9.2
– Net Position:	71,441	-63,383	-8,058
– Gross Longs:	159,447	103,921	23,706
– Gross Shorts:	88,006	167,304	31,764
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	47.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	58.6	-59.7	-20.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,441 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,861 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	47.1	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	42.5	5.5
– Net Position:	-12,441	12,110	331
– Gross Longs:	64,436	125,461	14,904
– Gross Shorts:	76,877	113,351	14,573
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.8	78.4	18.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-1.5	-8.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 36,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,398 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.0	39.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	74.2	3.7
– Net Position:	36,659	-43,707	7,048
– Gross Longs:	50,411	49,728	11,646
– Gross Shorts:	13,752	93,435	4,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.4	48.2	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-1.5	7.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	38.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	31.3	8.8
– Net Position:	-22,541	30,114	-7,573
– Gross Longs:	104,711	168,876	31,569
– Gross Shorts:	127,252	138,762	39,142
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.8	47.9	16.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	9.8	-13.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

10 Nov

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (50,742 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (10,970 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (3,306 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-15,096 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-13,952 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-3,151 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Russell-Mini & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Russell-Mini (88 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (82 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (81 percent) and VIX (81 percent) come in right behind them as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (81.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (81.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (74.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (81.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (76.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (64.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (47.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (88.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (90.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (16.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (31.3 percent)

S&P500-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (22 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (0.1 percent) is the only other positive mover (just barely) in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the VIX (-11 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-10.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (22.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (27.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-4.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (0.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-21.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-9.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (6.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (6.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -16,668 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,572 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	41.1	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	37.3	7.8
– Net Position:	-16,668	13,017	3,651
– Gross Longs:	87,632	141,435	30,551
– Gross Shorts:	104,300	128,418	26,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	19.0	93.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	5.4	21.7

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 113,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 50,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	67.7	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	78.6	7.1
– Net Position:	113,440	-233,202	119,762
– Gross Longs:	374,881	1,448,167	272,336
– Gross Shorts:	261,441	1,681,369	152,574
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	7.7	98.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.2	-23.9	11.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 12,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	50.7	18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	70.6	13.9
– Net Position:	12,931	-17,117	4,186
– Gross Longs:	24,195	43,814	16,160
– Gross Shorts:	11,264	60,931	11,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	13.4	79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	2.5	4.7

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 16,092 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	57.2	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	68.1	10.7
– Net Position:	16,092	-27,658	11,566
– Gross Longs:	62,784	144,580	38,511
– Gross Shorts:	46,692	172,238	26,945
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	22.2	76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	1.9	-3.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	72.2	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	77.5	4.0
– Net Position:	8,792	-23,537	14,745
– Gross Longs:	80,594	324,134	32,917
– Gross Shorts:	71,802	347,671	18,172
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.0	9.5	78.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	7.9	0.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -48,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,871 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	89.2	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	80.1	1.2
– Net Position:	-48,823	42,004	6,819
– Gross Longs:	36,603	414,178	12,337
– Gross Shorts:	85,426	372,174	5,518
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.4	79.8	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	15.7	-9.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

10 Nov

Speculator Extremes: Lean Hogs, AUD, 5-Year & 2-Year Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 5th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 58.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 71,441 net contracts this week with an increase by 10,363 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Australian Dollar speculator level is now at a 98.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 30.0 this week. The speculator position registered 30,976 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 3,460 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 94.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 12.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -414 net contracts this week with a dip by -261 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 88.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 0.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -264,408 net contracts this week with a gain of 45,626 contracts in the speculator bets.

Russell 2000 Mini

The Russell 2000 Mini speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Russell 2000 Mini speculator level sits at a 88.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.0 this week.

The speculator position was 8,792 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,151 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,767,409 net contracts this week with a shortfall by -86,938 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -27.9 this week. The speculator position was -1,486,359 net contracts this week with a drop by -6,998 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The US Dollar Index speculator level resides at a 4.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 95 net contracts this week with a decrease by -1,589 contracts in the speculator bets.

E-mini SP MidCap400

The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator level is at a 5.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.7 this week. The speculator position was -803 net contracts this week with a small gain of 175 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

Finally, the Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 9.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -49.1 this week. The speculator position was -175,229 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,730 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

08 Nov

EUR/USD Stabilises, Considers Trump’s Impact

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD is settling around 1.0785, assessing the market impact of this week’s events. With Donald Trump’s return as US President, the market is recalibrating expectations around inflation and economic policies that his administration may reintroduce.

Trump’s protectionist stance could stir inflationary pressures, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates than anticipated. This potential for elevated rates is boosting the dollar’s appeal.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% in line with market predictions. The Fed’s commentary suggested no deviations from its planned rate trajectory, hinting at continued easing.

Looking ahead, another rate reduction of 25 basis points is expected at the Fed’s December meeting, continuing its cautious but steady approach to monetary easing.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair has completed a bullish move towards 1.0820, as part of an ongoing upward impulse. Current market behaviour suggests a retracement to 1.0758 before resuming its ascent towards 1.0833. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which, although below zero, is trending upwards, signalling a potential bullish continuation.

The hourly frame shows EUR/USD undergoing a corrective phase to 1.0758. Upon reaching this level, a rebound to 1.0833 is expected, followed by another potential pullback to 1.0758. The stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line poised to rise towards 80, suggesting increasing bullish momentum.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Nov

World central banks continue to cut interest rates. US stock indices break records again

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) closed Thursday at the opening price. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.74%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.54%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices hit new all-time highs. Stocks are rising amid speculation that President-elect Trump will boost corporate profits by cutting taxes and reducing regulation. Stock indices also rose as the FOMC, as expected, lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 4.50%–4.75% from 4.75%–5.00% and said risks to the targets remain “roughly balanced.” The Central Bank noted that labor market conditions have generally eased, and inflation is trending lower, although it remains “somewhat elevated.”

The Mexican peso (MXN) rose to 19.9 per US dollar, rebounding from a two-and-a-half-year low of 20.27 hit on November 1, thanks to hawkish expectations from the Bank of Mexico. October annual inflation rose to 4.76%, beating estimates and September’s six-month low of 4.58%, which may prompt the Bank of Mexico to slow rate cuts and keep rates relatively high, thereby attracting foreign capital and strengthening the peso.

Equity markets in Europe rose steadily yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.70%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.76%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.65%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.32%.

The Bank of England cut interest rates to 4.75% as expected but estimated higher inflation and economic growth following the government’s new budget, which, due to prognoses of the Bank of England, will add almost 0.5 percentage points to peak inflation and delay the return to the 2% target by a year, and boost economic growth by 0.75% in 2024.

In November 2024, Norges Bank left its key rate unchanged at a high of 4.5% for the seventh consecutive meeting, matching market expectations, and signaled that it would hold the rate again in its upcoming December decision. The Central Bank said that restrictive monetary policy is still justified in bringing inflation down to the target level, delaying the start of monetary easing compared to other monetary authorities in Europe.

As expected, Sweden’s Riksbank cut its key rate by 50 bps to 2.75% at its November meeting. The Central Bank has cut the key rate four times this year since May in response to falling inflation and sluggish economic activity. Economic growth has stalled, and inflation has fallen below the 2% target.

The Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates cut its benchmark overnight deposit rate by 25 basis points to 4.65% in November 2024, closely following the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut. However, the interest rate on short-term liquid borrowings from the regulator remained 50 basis points above the prime rate. The UAE Central Bank’s prime rate, which is linked to the Fed Reserve Rate, reflects the path of monetary policy and sets the floor for interest rates in the UAE overnight market.

WTI crude oil prices fell below $72 per barrel on Friday but maintained an upward trend for the week, as investors weigh factors impacting future oil demand and supply. Market sentiment is affected by uncertainty surrounding the incoming Donald Trump administration, which could affect oil prices by increasing US production and possibly imposing tariffs that could slow the economy of China, the world’s largest oil importer, thereby dampening demand. Expectations that the Trump administration may impose tougher sanctions on oil-producing countries such as Iran and Venezuela could also support oil prices as such measures could curb global supply.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.25%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 3.45%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 2.02% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.76%.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 5.0% on November 8, hours after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by the same amount. Monetary policy in the Asian financial hub has become aligned with the US as the local currency is pegged to the US dollar.

The offshore yuan has fallen in value to about 7.16 per dollar as investors fear possible additional tariffs following Donald Trump’s presidential election victory. During his campaign, Trump promised to boost US manufacturing by proposing tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods. Markets are betting that Beijing will introduce additional stimulus measures to counter the risk of higher tariffs under a second Trump administration.

Japan’s Index of leading economic indicators, which gauges the economic outlook for the coming months based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, rose to 109.4 in September 2024 from 106.9 the previous month, the lowest since October 2020.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,973.10 +44.06 (+0.74%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,729.34 −0.59 (−0.01%)

DAX (DE40) 19,362.52 +323.21 (+1.70%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,140.74 −25.94 (−0.32%)

USD Index 104.36 −0.73 (−0.69%)

News feed for: 2024.11.08

Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

08 Nov

Week Ahead: USDInd set for volatile price swings?

By ForexTime

USDInd ↑ 3% year-to-date

Trump victory sends USDInd to highest level since July

Fed speeches + US CPI report = fresh volatility?

US CPI sparked moves of ↑ 0.7% & ↓ 0.6% over past year

Key levels of interest – 104.80, 104.40 and 103.90

With the US election done and dusted, the focus shifts back to key data from across the globe:

Saturday, 9th November

CN50: China PPI, CPI
JP225: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speech
EU50: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speech

Monday, 11th November

JP225: Japan current account

Tuesday, 12th November

AU200: Australia consumer confidence
GER40: Germany CPI, ZEW survey
ZAR: South Africa manufacturing production, unemployment
UK100: UK jobless claims, unemployment
USDInd: Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speech

Wednesday, 13th November

CHINAH: Tencent earnings
EU50: Eurozone industrial production
JP225: Japan PPI
USDInd: US CPI, Fed speeches

Thursday, 14th November

AU200: Australia unemployment, RBA Governor Michele Bullock speech
EU50: Eurozone GDP
USDInd: US PPI, jobless claims, New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech
UK100: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech
US30: Walt Disney earnings

Friday, 15th November

HK50: China retail sales, industrial production, Alibaba earnings
CAD: Canada manufacturing sales, existing home sales
JP225: Japan Q3 GDP, industrial production
UK100: UK GDP, industrial production, trade balance
USDInd: US retail sales, Empire manufacturing, industrial production

Our attention falls on FXTM’s USDInd which could be rattled by key US data and Fed speeches including Jerome Powell.

Besides, it would be a crime to overlook the index after its aggressively bullish reaction to Trump’s US election win. Prices jumped almost 2% mid-week on the “Trump trade” before giving back post-election gains as the Pound and Yen gained.

The Federal Reserve also contributed to the USDInd recent weakness after cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5%.

USD1

The USDInd tracks the dollar’s performance against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

With all the above said, the USDInd could see more price swings. Here are 3 reasons why:

1) US October CPI report

The October US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report published on Wednesday 13th November could impact Fed cut bets for December and beyond.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (October 2024 vs. October 2023) to rise 2.6% from 2.4% in the prior month
Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 3.3%
CPI month-on-month (October 2024 vs September 2024) to remain unchanged at 0.2%
Core CPI month-on-month to remain unchanged at 0.3%.

Headline and core CPI inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2% and 0.3% MoM in October, but the year-over-year headline number is expected to rise 2.6% from 2.4%.

Over the past 12 months, the USCPI has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.7% or declines of 0.6% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Further evidence of cooling price pressures may support the case for another rate cut in December.

Traders are currently pricing in a 74% probability of another 25 basis point rate cut by the end of 2024.

A softer-than-expected US CPI report has the potential to drag the USDInd lower.

Should the CPI report beat market forecasts, the USDInd could push higher.

2) Key data + Fed speeches

A string of key US economic data and speeches by numerous Fed officials could result in more volatility for the USDInd.

Investors will direct their attention towards the latest US retail sales report, Producer Prices Index (PPI), and initial jobless claims among other data to gauge the health of the US economy. Speech by various Fed officials including Jerome Powell on Thursday may offer fresh insight and clues on the Fed’s next move.

Should overall US economic data paint positive picture and Fed speakers sound hawkish, this could hit Fed cut bets – supporting the USDInd as a result.

If US economic data disappoints and Fed officials adopt a dovish stance, the USDInd may weaken as expectations around a December rate cut increase.

3) Technical forces

The USDInd remains in an uptrend on the daily charts but bulls and bears seem entangled in a fierce tug of war. Prices are trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading near overbought levels.

A breakdown below 104.40 could open a path toward the 200-day SMA at 103.90, 103.50 and the 100-day SMA at 103.10.

Should prices push back above 104.80, this may open the doors toward 105.50 and 106.00.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

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