InvestMacro

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Copper & Platinum

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals category this week was Silver with a small gain of 454 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-18,364 contracts), Copper (-6,010 contracts), Platinum (-2,324 contracts), Steel (-557 contracts) and with Palladium (-385 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (92 percent) and Silver (84 percent) led the metals markets this week. Gold (73 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (41 percent) and Copper (45 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (72.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (79.6 percent)
Silver (83.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (83.0 percent)
Copper (45.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.0 percent)
Platinum (48.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (54.2 percent)
Palladium (40.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (43.4 percent)
Steel (91.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (94.5 percent)

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (23 percent) and Silver (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-4 percent) and Copper (-3 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-21.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-6.7 percent)
Silver (7.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (8.6 percent)
Copper (-3.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.7 percent)
Platinum (-1.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.5 percent)
Palladium (-3.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.5 percent)
Steel (22.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (28.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 243,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,364 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 261,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.0	13.4	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	68.8	4.4
– Net Position:	243,261	-271,115	27,854
– Gross Longs:	303,132	65,713	49,602
– Gross Shorts:	59,871	336,828	21,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.6	24.7	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.8	20.0	7.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 53,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.2	21.2	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	69.8	7.2
– Net Position:	53,316	-70,944	17,628
– Gross Longs:	73,315	30,890	28,190
– Gross Shorts:	19,999	101,834	10,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.5	15.9	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-8.8	10.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	32.1	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	39.5	6.2
– Net Position:	13,012	-16,189	3,177
– Gross Longs:	88,987	70,271	16,778
– Gross Shorts:	75,975	86,460	13,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	56.5	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	4.8	-11.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.8	20.9	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	46.6	4.6
– Net Position:	13,852	-20,401	6,549
– Gross Longs:	48,163	16,532	10,229
– Gross Shorts:	34,311	36,933	3,680
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	47.2	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	0.5	8.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.0	45.0	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.8	7.0	7.9
– Net Position:	-8,519	7,573	946
– Gross Longs:	7,984	8,966	2,523
– Gross Shorts:	16,503	1,393	1,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	6.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.5	55.5	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	1.9	10.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	58.0	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	67.1	0.6
– Net Position:	3,340	-3,500	160
– Gross Longs:	13,014	22,292	380
– Gross Shorts:	9,674	25,792	220
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.9	8.6	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-23.1	9.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

09 Mar

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month with a gain of 42,737 contracts also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-233,685 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-172,588 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-114,073 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-58,709 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-21,846 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-21,236 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-12,185 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-4,169 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (86 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (77 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (75 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Fed Funds (10 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (21 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (10.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (53.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (21.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (23.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (19.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (40.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (42.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (75.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (83.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (77.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (97.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (85.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (87.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (60.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (49.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (16.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (22.8 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (36 percent) and the lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 1-Month (-17 percent), the US Treasury Bond (-15 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-12 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-9.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (33.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (7.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-0.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (8.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (36.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (32.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-14.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (14.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (5.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-17.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-16.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-8.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-0.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -240,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -233,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	69.2	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	56.7	1.4
– Net Position:	-240,075	220,897	19,178
– Gross Longs:	214,528	1,224,314	43,847
– Gross Shorts:	454,603	1,003,417	24,669
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.3	82.2	87.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	4.8	30.3

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -838,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -114,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -724,871 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	61.2	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	53.5	0.4
– Net Position:	-838,944	814,365	24,579
– Gross Longs:	1,367,058	6,463,732	66,088
– Gross Shorts:	2,206,002	5,649,367	41,509
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.9	81.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	7.7	9.3

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 42,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	54.6	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	50.3	2.0
– Net Position:	-33,587	54,688	-21,101
– Gross Longs:	311,799	699,458	4,676
– Gross Shorts:	345,386	644,770	25,777
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.2	45.0	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.0	22.1	-55.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,171,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,149,453 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	74.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	47.2	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,171,299	1,032,223	139,076
– Gross Longs:	553,273	2,841,528	240,539
– Gross Shorts:	1,724,572	1,809,305	101,463
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.5	75.7	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-0.2	-0.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,798,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -172,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,625,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	82.8	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	56.5	4.3
– Net Position:	-1,798,361	1,632,826	165,535
– Gross Longs:	447,699	5,131,809	430,704
– Gross Shorts:	2,246,060	3,498,983	265,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.8	85.4	82.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	-2.4	8.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -712,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -699,855 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	75.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	61.4	7.4
– Net Position:	-712,040	653,140	58,900
– Gross Longs:	637,490	3,542,653	408,077
– Gross Shorts:	1,349,530	2,889,513	349,177
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	58.7	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	10.8	12.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -74,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,957 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	73.6	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	68.3	12.3
– Net Position:	-74,193	118,891	-44,698
– Gross Longs:	339,134	1,641,606	228,663
– Gross Shorts:	413,327	1,522,715	273,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.1	9.1	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.3	-40.4	3.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -58,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	67.5	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	71.7	6.9
– Net Position:	-17,797	-82,656	100,453
– Gross Longs:	341,103	1,303,352	234,473
– Gross Shorts:	358,900	1,386,008	134,020
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.2	15.0	87.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	2.3	23.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -231,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -227,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	80.9	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	69.5	8.8
– Net Position:	-231,904	200,977	30,927
– Gross Longs:	143,596	1,425,013	185,058
– Gross Shorts:	375,500	1,224,036	154,131
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.8	5.7	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	-12.6	40.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

09 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as all eleven softs markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines for the softs markets was Corn (-105,723 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-29,827 contracts), Soybeans (-23,733 contracts), Wheat (-22,791 contracts), Lean Hogs (-21,162 contracts), Soybean Meal (-19,792 contracts), Cotton (-18,651 contracts), Live Cattle (-11,216 contracts), Sugar (-7,482 contracts), Cocoa (-1,800 contracts) and Coffee (-346 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (83 percent) and Corn (77 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (68 percent) and Lean Hogs (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent), Soybean Meal (4 percent), Wheat (10 percent) and Sugar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (76.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (90.0 percent)
Sugar (18.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (21.3 percent)
Coffee (82.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (83.2 percent)
Soybeans (39.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (44.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (65.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (4.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.6 percent)
Live Cattle (67.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (78.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (63.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (80.2 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (11.3 percent)
Cocoa (28.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (29.8 percent)
Wheat (9.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (27.9 percent)

Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (18 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only positive mover for soft commodities.

Live Cattle (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-20 percent), Lean Hogs (-18 percent) and Coffee (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-7.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.9 percent)
Sugar (18.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (6.2 percent)
Coffee (-15.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.0 percent)
Soybeans (-12.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-13.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (5.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (-11.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-2.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-27.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-21.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-18.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-6.7 percent)
Cotton (-13.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.7 percent)
Cocoa (-20.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-17.8 percent)
Wheat (-9.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (16.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 335,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -105,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 441,161 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	40.2	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	55.0	10.1
– Net Position:	335,438	-272,829	-62,609
– Gross Longs:	492,878	744,078	124,822
– Gross Shorts:	157,440	1,016,907	187,431
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	26.3	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	5.5	18.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,009 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	51.4	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	54.3	6.5
– Net Position:	26,009	-26,402	393
– Gross Longs:	191,009	464,615	59,086
– Gross Shorts:	165,000	491,017	58,693
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.9	83.5	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.4	-16.5	5.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 58,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	32.9	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	71.1	4.1
– Net Position:	58,837	-62,034	3,197
– Gross Longs:	73,038	53,470	9,875
– Gross Shorts:	14,201	115,504	6,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.9	17.8	70.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	15.7	-17.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -34,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,733 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,550 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	58.0	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	49.7	8.8
– Net Position:	-34,283	67,504	-33,221
– Gross Longs:	161,354	472,116	38,291
– Gross Shorts:	195,637	404,612	71,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	65.2	25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	13.1	0.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	55.8	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	59.5	4.7
– Net Position:	14,490	-20,749	6,259
– Gross Longs:	112,638	312,712	32,698
– Gross Shorts:	98,148	333,461	26,439
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.4	52.7	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	9.4	19.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	52.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	45.6	5.9
– Net Position:	-55,904	39,090	16,814
– Gross Longs:	100,013	292,120	49,575
– Gross Shorts:	155,917	253,030	32,761
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.5	93.2	31.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	11.5	-8.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 90,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,232 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.3	30.0	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	49.4	13.1
– Net Position:	90,016	-68,986	-21,030
– Gross Longs:	157,737	106,632	25,730
– Gross Shorts:	67,721	175,618	46,760
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	38.2	23.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.7	26.5	23.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	34.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	49.3	9.1
– Net Position:	46,665	-42,376	-4,289
– Gross Longs:	104,957	99,331	21,945
– Gross Shorts:	58,292	141,707	26,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.9	34.5	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	18.0	13.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -62,137 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	52.0	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	30.0	5.1
– Net Position:	-62,137	61,640	497
– Gross Longs:	70,011	145,796	14,670
– Gross Shorts:	132,148	84,156	14,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	13.4	-6.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	40.7	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	62.1	5.4
– Net Position:	17,651	-21,717	4,066
– Gross Longs:	29,410	41,221	9,501
– Gross Shorts:	11,759	62,938	5,435
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.0	71.7	51.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	23.1	-25.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -84,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,791 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,051 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	38.6	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.0	19.6	7.3
– Net Position:	-84,842	81,058	3,784
– Gross Longs:	116,367	165,082	35,060
– Gross Shorts:	201,209	84,024	31,276
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.8	85.9	77.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	9.8	-2.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

09 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (64,882 contracts) with the VIX (28,878 contracts), the Russell-Mini (16,757 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (2,021 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-4,011 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,914 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-780 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the S&P500-Mini (84 percent) and the Russell-Mini (79 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (75 percent) and MSCI EAFE-Mini (75 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

The VIX (60 percent) the comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is above the 3-year midpoint of 50 percent.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (59.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (33.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (83.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (72.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (62.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (58.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (72.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (79.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (78.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (67.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (74.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (81.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (75.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (77.9 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (28 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (19 percent), the Nikkei 225 (18 percent) and the Russell-Mini (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-2.0 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-11.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (-38.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (19.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-0.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-3.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (5.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (23.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-13.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (17.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (24.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -40,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly jump by 28,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,103 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	47.3	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	37.0	8.0
– Net Position:	-40,225	40,231	-6
– Gross Longs:	87,215	184,876	31,279
– Gross Shorts:	127,440	144,645	31,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	42.2	78.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	12.6	-10.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 64,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	68.0	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	75.7	7.0
– Net Position:	32,103	-167,315	135,212
– Gross Longs:	366,510	1,483,119	287,647
– Gross Shorts:	334,407	1,650,434	152,435
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.7	9.9	90.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-16.0	-0.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	59.3	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	62.6	16.5
– Net Position:	1,110	-2,519	1,409
– Gross Longs:	15,227	44,551	13,813
– Gross Shorts:	14,117	47,070	12,404
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.1	34.6	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	4.4	-10.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 21,766 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	53.9	15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	67.9	9.2
– Net Position:	21,766	-40,222	18,456
– Gross Longs:	82,749	155,447	44,972
– Gross Shorts:	60,983	195,669	26,516
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	10.3	89.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-3.8	0.6

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,331 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	73.3	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	74.1	5.2
– Net Position:	-4,574	-3,580	8,154
– Gross Longs:	66,840	326,541	31,232
– Gross Shorts:	71,414	330,121	23,078
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	21.7	47.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-3.8	-29.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -661 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	1.9	75.5	21.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.9	70.6	20.6
– Net Position:	-661	553	108
– Gross Longs:	215	8,400	2,402
– Gross Shorts:	876	7,847	2,294
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.5	30.3	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-15.0	1.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	85.6	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	84.3	1.4
– Net Position:	-11,821	5,592	6,229
– Gross Longs:	49,088	371,895	12,435
– Gross Shorts:	60,909	366,303	6,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.1	33.0	48.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.8	-26.8	14.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

07 Mar

The German DAX index has hit an all-time high. WTI crude oil prices show a multi-day losing streak

By JustMarkets

The US stocks fell on Thursday as trade uncertainty and changes to the Trump administration’s tariff policy fueled investor anxiety. The Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.99%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.78%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.79%, hitting its lowest level since last November.

The US government currently holds about 200,000 bitcoins worth about $18 billion. The order also says it will create a US digital asset reserve to store other confiscated crypto assets. However, the news did not enthuse investors as the US government will not buy bitcoin to replenish the reserve, meaning there is no new buying pressure on the market. White House Chief of Staff David Sachs announced the reserve will be funded solely by bitcoins seized in criminal and civil forfeiture cases.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) jumped 1.47%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.29% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.15%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.83% yesterday. The DAX index rose more than 1% to a new record high above 23,360 on Thursday, with most stocks rising as European leaders pledged to increase defense spending and support Ukraine, reacting to Donald Trump’s change in US policy. EU leaders welcomed proposals for greater budgetary flexibility in defense and a plan to jointly borrow up to 150 billion euros to finance military spending. The European Central Bank delivered an expected interest rate cut but took a more cautious stance on future rate changes, revising its near-term inflation forecasts upward.

WTI crude oil prices traded around $66 a barrel on Friday, starting the worst week since October and the longest weekly losing streak since December 2023. The potential impact of changes in global trade pressured prices. Although President Donald Trump eased some tariffs on Mexico and Canada before April 2, retaliatory tariffs on Canada remain, and China’s measures will take effect next week. The bearish sentiment is compounded by the fact that OPEC+ plans to restart production in April, which coincides with the prospect of a restart of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline and increased production from Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field, adding to fears of oversupply.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell 1.60%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.66%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose 0.59%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.26%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,738.52 −104.11 (−1.78%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,579.08 −427.51 (−0.99%)

DAX (DE40) 23,419.48 +338.45 (+1.47%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,682.84 −73.00 (−0.83%)

USD index 104.01 −0.05 (−0.05%)

News feed for: 2025.03.07

China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2);
Mexican Inflation Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).
US Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speaks at 19:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

07 Mar

EUR/USD holds firm as the US dollar ends the week with losses

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD is trading near 1.0806 on Friday, maintaining its position despite failing to extend its gains further. Investors are focused on the upcoming US employment data for February, which will be released later today.

Key factors influencing EUR/USD

The US dollar briefly found support after President Donald Trump temporarily excluded some Canadian and Mexican goods from the 25% tariffs imposed earlier this week. This move raised hopes for further trade concessions, easing concerns slightly.

However, despite this development, the USD is on track to close the first week of March with a loss of over 3%. The escalating trade war has increased fears of negative economic consequences for the US, particularly given the heavy reliance of US companies on free trade.

Meanwhile, the euro gained support from expectations of increased government spending in Germany and other European nations, particularly in defence investments.

The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its interest rate as expected, reducing it to 2.65% per annum. This move was widely anticipated and did not create market surprises.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD completed a growth wave to 1.0850 and is now forming a consolidation range around 1.0800. A downward breakout from this range is expected, potentially leading to a decline towards 1.0600. After reaching this level, a correction towards 1.0700 could follow. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but turning downward, indicating potential weakness.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD is consolidating around 1.0800. A move down to 1.0730 is expected, followed by a possible retest of 1.0800 from below before another decline towards 1.0600. If this trend continues, the next target could be 1.0400. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line above 80 and preparing to decline towards 20, indicating a potential bearish shift.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains elevated but faces increasing downside risks, particularly if US job data strengthens the dollar. While trade tensions and ECB policy support the euro, technical indicators suggest a potential decline towards 1.0600, with further downside possible. The US employment report will be a critical driver for the next major move in the pair.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Mar

European indices are growing amid the change of economic vector to defense. Inflationary pressures in Vietnam continue to ease.

By JustMarkets

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) was up 1.14%. The S&P500 Index (US500) was up 1.12%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped 1.36%. The White House confirmed that General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis received a one-month extension on tariffs related to the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, easing concerns about the impact on the economy. Investors viewed the move as a potential signal that the administration could negotiate further tariff waivers, which prompted a rebound in the broad market. Traders await Friday’s monthly jobs report after ADP data showed the US private sector added just 77,000 jobs in February, the smallest gain in seven months. Meanwhile, the dollar faced further pressure from a rising euro as Germany’s proposed €500 billion infrastructure fund and plans to overhaul borrowing rules boosted growth prospects in the Eurozone.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly rising on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) jumped 3.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.56% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.40%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.04%. Berlin announced a historic increase in defense and infrastructure spending. Friedrich Merz, Germany’s incoming Chancellor, confirmed that the main centrist parties will create a €500 billion infrastructure fund and amend the constitution to remove fiscal restraints on defense and security spending.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $67 a barrel on Thursday, likely a technical rebound after hitting multi-year lows in the previous session. Some relief came after a US official suggested that President Donald Trump may slap a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports in line with trade agreements. However, sentiment remained bearish due to concerns over the impact of the US tariffs and OPEC+’s decision to increase production. Tariffs and retaliatory measures could slow global growth and weaken oil demand. Meanwhile, EIA data showed that US crude inventories rose more than expected, adding to oversupply fears.

Asian markets rose steadily yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.07%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.26%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped 3.41%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.34%. China reacted sharply to the new US tariffs, declaring its willingness to wage “any type of war” with the US and dismissing the US fentanyl explanation for imposing the tariffs as a “flimsy excuse.”

The New Zealand dollar climbed as high as 0.573 US dollars on Thursday, hitting a one-week-high, amid improving risk sentiment after the US granted a temporary tariff reprieve to automakers. On Monday, President Donald Trump granted automakers a one-month reprieve from imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. The kiwi was further supported by fresh fiscal stimulus measures promised by China, which signaled increased efforts to boost consumption and protect economic growth amid ongoing trade tensions with the US.

Vietnam’s annual inflation rate fell to 2.91% in February 2025, a three-month low, down from 3.63% in January. The slowdown was driven by lower inflation in the service sector. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile items, slowed to 2.87% from 3.07% in January.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,842.63 +64.48 (+1.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,006.59 +485.60 (+1.14%)

DAX (DE40) 23,081.03 +754.22 (+3.38%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,755.84 −3.16 (−0.04%)

USD Index 104.15 −1.59 (−1.51%)

News feed for: 2025.03.06

Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+2);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2);
Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Mar

Gold vs. the Dow: The 100-Year Truth Investors Overlook

Source: John Newell (3/3/25)

John Newell of John Newell & Associates shares his thoughts on where the gold market is headed. Newell also updates us on two stocks he has previously spoken about.

For decades, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been hailed as the ultimate benchmark for long-term investing success. Investors, analysts, and financial media constantly praise its performance, often portraying it as the premier wealth-building vehicle. But there’s a catch: unlike gold, the Dow is not a constant.

Over the past century, underperforming companies in the Dow have been quietly removed and replaced with stronger performers. Once-prominent names like Union Carbide and Massey Ferguson were left behind as the index evolved to maintain its upward trajectory. This constant reshuffling ensures the Dow always reflects a select group of thriving businesses, making it seem like an unbeatable long-term investment.

Now, let’s compare that to gold. Unlike the Dow, gold doesn’t change. It has been a store of value for thousands of years, immune to corporate failures, economic shifts, and index rebalancing tricks.

Yet, despite all the noise about the Dow’s strength, gold has actually performed just as well, if not better, over the past 100 years.

The attached chart above illustrates a remarkable reality: gold has kept pace with the Dow over the long run despite being dismissed as a relic by mainstream finance. From its fixed price of $20.67 per ounce in the early 1900s, before President Roosevelt changed the fix in 1933 to $35.00 and prohibited U.S. investors from holding gold, savvy investors responded by doing the next best thing: investing in gold properties north of the border, in Canada’s prolific goldfields. This wave of capital helped fuel exploration booms that led to some of the most significant gold discoveries in North America.

That represents a move of over 10,000%, comparable to the Dow’s ascent, without the benefit of removing underperformers along the way. The narrative that gold is an “old-fashioned” or a “pet rock” investment, while the Dow represents the future, simply doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.

This begs the question: If gold has matched the performance of an ever-evolving index, what happens when gold’s true monetary role reasserts itself in an era of extreme money printing, debt expansion, and de-dollarization?

With gold prices at record highs and institutional investors taking notice, we may be entering a new phase where gold not only keeps pace with the Dow but decisively outperforms it.

Update on Goliath Resources (See Previous Article Here)

Goliath Resources Ltd. (GOT:TSX.V; GOTRF:OTCQB; B4IF; FSE) is a junior resource exploration company advancing high-grade precious metal projects in the prolific Golden Triangle and northwestern areas of British Columbia.

The company is on track with a new discovery of a large high-grade gold system at its Golddigger property. The Surebet discovery, previously covered by glaciers and permanent snowpack, has now been exposed and drilled for the first time. The project is located in a world-class geological setting and mining-friendly jurisdiction. The Golddigger property sits on tidewater and has excellent infrastructure, including a permitted mill site in Kitsault nearby.

Significant shareholders include Crescat Capital, Eric Sprott, Rob McEwen, and a global commodity group based in Singapore. Dr. Quinton Hennigh serves as a technical advisor. Since our last article on Goliath Resources Ltd. (GOT.V), the company has exceeded its first price target of $2.25, demonstrating strong technical and fundamental performance. The breakout from its long-term downtrend and the series of higher lows have reinforced its upward momentum. The stock is now advancing toward its second target of $4.10, with an ultimate big-picture target of $11.50.

The company’s fundamentals remain robust, driven by high-grade gold discoveries and increasing investor interest in the junior mining sector. While pullbacks are natural in any bull run, Goliath’s technical setup continues to support further upside, making it a compelling stock to watch in the gold exploration space.

Update on First Nordic Minerals (See Previous Article Here )

First Nordic Metals Corp. (FNM:TSX; FNMCF:OTCQB) is a Canadian-based gold exploration company consolidating assets in Sweden and Finland to create Europe’s next major gold camp. The company’s flagship asset in northern Sweden is the Barsele Gold Project, a joint venture with senior gold producer Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. Surrounding Barsele, First Nordic owns a 100% district-scale land package that includes the Paubäcken and Storjuktan projects, covering 104,000 hectares on the Gold Line Belt. Additionally, in northern Finland, First Nordic owns the entire Oijärvi Greenstone Belt, including the Kylmäkangas Au-Ag deposit, the largest known gold occurrence in the region.

“2024 was a defining year for First Nordic as we laid the groundwork to become a leading gold explorer and developer. Receiving the TSX Venture 50 award is a testament to our team’s execution on driving growth through strategic acquisitions and project advancements, as well as the support of key shareholders and industry partners. Sweden and Finland globally rank among the most attractive, underexplored, and exciting regions for mineral exploration right now. With a strong resource base and a fully funded, extensive drill program on multiple high-potential targets, we are poised for an exciting 2025 as we continue to advance Europe’s next gold camp.”

First Nordic Metals has also shown significant progress, coming close to achieving its first target of $0.70. The stock has successfully broken out of its long-term downtrend, confirming a bullish reversal pattern. Higher lows and increasing volume indicate strong accumulation, setting the stage for continued gains.

With a combined historical market capitalization of approximately $300 million, First Nordic has substantial upside potential. The next targets of $1.25 and $1.60 remain well within reach, supported by improving sentiment in the gold sector and the company’s expanding exploration portfolio.

Are Investors Ready for This Reality?

At $3,000 per ounce, we might just see the public dipping pie plates into gold-bearing streams across this great land called Canada. The stage is set for a renewed gold rush, and those paying attention to the junior mining sector could be positioned for substantial gains.

As history has shown, when the gold market heats up, Canadian junior exploration companies have the potential to deliver exponential returns. Investors who understand this cycle and position themselves accordingly may find that gold stocks offer not only a hedge against inflation but also a path to significant wealth creation in the years ahead.

Important Disclosures:

John Newell: I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

Source: https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2025/03/03/gold-vs-the-dow-the-100-year-truth-investors-overlook.html?m_t=2025_03_03_10_37_20

Metals Opinions

05 Mar

Natural gas prices jumped 8%. The head of the RBNZ unexpectedly announced his resignation

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was down 1.55%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.22%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 0.36%. The US stock futures rose on Wednesday after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said a potential tariff compromise between the United States, Canada, and Mexico could be in the works. The comments came after Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico went into effect on Tuesday, along with additional 10% duties on Chinese imports. The measures sparked retaliation from the affected countries, raising fears of an escalating global trade war that could hamper economic growth.

The Mexican peso fell to 20.8 per US dollar, hitting a three-year low, amid escalating trade tensions between the US and Mexico. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico will announce retaliatory measures this Sunday. She emphasized that Mexico has taken significant steps over the past month to crack down on drug cartels and fight the fentanyl trade, saying the US tariffs are unjustified.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly falling on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 3.54%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.85%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 2.55%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 1.27%. European defense stocks rose in the week after the US announced it was cutting off aid to Ukraine, reinforcing the need for Europe to invest in its armed forces. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled plans to mobilize €800 billion for defense, including €150 billion in loans and an easing of fiscal restraints.

WTI crude oil prices fell below $68 a barrel on Wednesday, remaining near a three-month low, as concerns over OPEC+ production increases pressured prices. The group confirmed plans to phase out production cuts of 2.2 million bpd starting in April, with monthly production increases of 138,000 bpd through the end of 2026. Further pressuring prices was the fact that the Trump administration suspended all US military aid to Ukraine following reports of a potential lifting of sanctions on Russia, which could lead to an increase in Russian oil exports.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) rose more than 8% to surpass $4.45 per mmbbls/ton, the highest since December 2022, thanks to record LNG exports and higher demand expectations. LNG exports have been on the rise in early March after hitting a record 15.6 Bcf/d in February, helped by new installations at Venture Global’s Plaquemines plant.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.19%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.60%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.36%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.93%. The Chinese market opened higher on Wednesday. Traders welcomed private survey data showing an unexpected rebound in service sector activity from January’s four-month low thanks to a rise in new orders and overseas sales, as well as stabilizing employment.

The Australian dollar dipped below 0.625 US dollar on Wednesday, reversing a two-day rally despite stronger-than-expected economic growth data. Australia’s economy grew by 0.6% in the fourth quarter, up from 0.3% in the previous quarter and beating market expectations of 0.5%. On the monetary policy front, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted that the Central Bank is closely monitoring the impact of the escalating global trade war on domestic inflation. He emphasized that it is too early to declare victory over inflation and called for a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr unexpectedly announced his resignation today, three years before the end of his second five-year term. Deputy Governor Christian Hawksbee will serve as acting Governor until March 31, when Orr officially steps down.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,778.15 −71.57 (−1.22%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,520.99 −670.25 (−1.55%)

DAX (DE40) 22,326.81 −820.21 (−3.54%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,759.00 −112.31 (−1.27%)

USD Index 105.55 −0.19 (−0.18%)

News feed for: 2025.03.05

Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
Australia GDP (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 16:30 (GMT+2);
US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 22:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Mar

Gold poised for a rally as support builds from multiple factors

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold is trading around 2,910 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, pausing after the previous day’s growth. The temporary slowdown comes as rising US Treasury bond yields exert pressure on prices.

Key drivers influencing gold prices

Despite this pause, gold remains near its record highs, supported by strong safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions. On Tuesday, the US implemented 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on China, worsening the global trade climate and triggering retaliatory measures.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that tariff reductions for Canada and Mexico may be possible in the future, which has slightly calmed market fears but has not eliminated concerns entirely.

Further bolstering gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset is the broader geopolitical landscape. The US suspended military aid to Ukraine, while reports emerged suggesting a potential easing of sanctions against Russia. These developments increase uncertainty in global markets, enhancing gold’s attractiveness.

In the near term, market participants are awaiting key US economic reports, including the ISM services PMI and employment data. These indicators will provide further clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. Recent data suggests growing economic strains, strengthening the argument for additional rate cuts, which would further support gold prices.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD has formed a growth wave to 2,900. Currently, the market is consolidating around this level. A breakout to the upside is expected, with a target of 2,974 as the next local resistance level. After reaching this target, a correction towards 2,900 could follow. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line positioned below zero but trending upwards, indicating strong bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, gold has already executed a growth wave to 2,900, forming a consolidation range at this level. If the price breaks downward, a correction to 2,880 is possible before another upward impulse begins. A bullish breakout from the consolidation range would open the potential for a direct rally towards 2,974. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, with its signal line above 50 and pointing towards 80, indicating a continuation of upward momentum.

Conclusion

Gold remains well-supported by trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. While a temporary pullback could occur, the broader trend suggests further upside towards 2,974. Market participants should watch upcoming US economic data releases for additional confirmation of gold’s next move.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.