InvestMacro

Speculator Extremes: Yen, BRL, 5-Year & Dollar Index lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 22nd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position, once again, comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range as the speculator net positioning continues to make new all-time highs for the 3rd week in a row.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score increased by 12.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 177,814 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,959 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes up next in the extreme standings this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is now at a 99.7 percent score compared to its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 7.6 this week. The speculator position registered 49,887 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 855 contracts in speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level resides at a 97.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 23.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 37,680 net contracts this week with an increase by 5,886 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes in at number four in the extreme standings this week as the Nikkei 225 speculator level is at a 96.4 percent score over its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 35.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,904 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,025 contracts in the speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings with the VIX speculator level at a 89.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled 10.8 this week.

The speculator position sits at -5,745 net contracts this week with a rise of 11,552 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score or the bottom of the 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,191,434 net contracts this week with a decrease of -129,859 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as USD sentiment has been deteriorating. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at just a 4.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -36.9 this week. The speculator position was -974 net contracts this week with a reduction of -2,802 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Wheat speculator level resides at a 6.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -93,969 net contracts this week with a decline of -5,643 contracts in the speculator bets.

E-mini SP MidCap400

The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish standing with the MidCap400 speculator level at a 11.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -23.4 this week while the speculator position totaled -86 net contracts this week with a tiny change of 5 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Finally, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish standing for this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 13.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.2 this week and the speculator position was -1,297,995 net contracts this week with a drop of -43,222 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

26 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (5,288 contracts) with Silver (777 contracts) also recording a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-26,832 contracts), Palladium (-835 contracts), Platinum (-357 contracts) and with Steel (-327 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.

The Gold speculator bets continued their recent cool off over the past couple of months despite the metal’s rapid ascent to all-time high levels. Gold speculator positions have now fallen in nine out of the past eleven weeks and since February 12th, gold speculator bets have been on the decline with -127,130 contracts coming out of the bullish position that was at +302,508 contracts on February 4th. The gold futures price this week surged to an all-time high above $3,500 but did u-turn mid-week and closed the week almost unchanged at right around $3,300.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (82 percent) and Silver (73 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (56 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (23 percent) and Platinum (29 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (46.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (57.0 percent)
Silver (72.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (71.7 percent)
Copper (56.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.4 percent)
Platinum (29.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (30.2 percent)
Palladium (23.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (29.3 percent)
Steel (81.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (83.1 percent)

Copper tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only market with a positive trend.

Platinum (-24 percent), Gold (-23 percent) and Silver (-19 percent) lead the downside trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-23.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-15.6 percent)
Silver (-18.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-11.8 percent)
Copper (5.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.0 percent)
Platinum (-23.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-18.5 percent)
Palladium (-17.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-11.2 percent)
Steel (-15.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 175,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -26,832 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 202,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.6	19.6	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	63.0	5.2
– Net Position:	175,378	-202,268	26,890
– Gross Longs:	258,896	91,128	50,904
– Gross Shorts:	83,518	293,396	24,014
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.8	49.5	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	22.7	-8.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 777 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,949 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	27.6	20.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	71.4	7.0
– Net Position:	44,726	-64,374	19,648
– Gross Longs:	64,693	40,479	29,975
– Gross Shorts:	19,967	104,853	10,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.7	23.2	65.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	14.4	8.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 24,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.0	32.1	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	44.2	6.8
– Net Position:	24,765	-23,650	-1,115
– Gross Longs:	78,607	63,199	12,266
– Gross Shorts:	53,842	86,849	13,381
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	50.1	11.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-1.4	-27.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.9	23.7	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.6	38.7	5.3
– Net Position:	5,677	-11,652	5,975
– Gross Longs:	45,094	18,459	10,067
– Gross Shorts:	39,417	30,111	4,092
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	66.8	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.8	21.7	5.9

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -10,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	53.7	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.1	5.2	6.9
– Net Position:	-10,843	9,913	930
– Gross Longs:	6,365	10,984	2,337
– Gross Shorts:	17,208	1,071	1,407
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	10.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	72.9	73.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	18.2	-2.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	64.4	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	67.2	0.6
– Net Position:	1,118	-1,033	-85
– Gross Longs:	11,012	24,447	147
– Gross Shorts:	9,894	25,480	232
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.6	20.1	23.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	17.1	-29.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

26 Apr

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-M & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-M & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (51,981 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (31,649 contracts) and the SOFR 1-Month (23,624 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-129,859 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-43,222 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-27,545 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-19,489 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-6,902 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-5,442 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (80 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (52 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the the 10-Year Bond (23 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (38 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (52.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (53.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (22.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (19.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (40.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (47.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (45.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (48.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (79.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (90.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (48.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (42.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (38.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (35.7 percent)

Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (34 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-42.7 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-26 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-16 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (43.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (-5.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-5.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-15.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-12.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (-16.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-21.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-42.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-27.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-25.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-28.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (1.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-10.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-17.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (16.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (18.8 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,417 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,975 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	67.7	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	67.5	1.6
– Net Position:	-12,417	3,500	8,917
– Gross Longs:	426,751	1,637,172	46,896
– Gross Shorts:	439,168	1,633,672	37,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	42.7	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.8	-32.1	-8.6

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -423,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 51,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -475,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	60.3	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	56.2	0.2
– Net Position:	-423,810	420,573	3,237
– Gross Longs:	1,355,787	6,255,618	28,957
– Gross Shorts:	1,779,597	5,835,045	25,720
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	61.3	85.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-15.4	-14.6

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -80,790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 23,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	69.6	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	64.2	0.0
– Net Position:	-80,790	80,731	59
– Gross Longs:	213,848	1,055,148	621
– Gross Shorts:	294,638	974,417	562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.6	51.4	85.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	5.5	51.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,297,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -43,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,254,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	79.1	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	50.2	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,297,995	1,181,471	116,524
– Gross Longs:	545,259	3,234,494	238,373
– Gross Shorts:	1,843,254	2,053,023	121,849
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.0	87.5	72.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	7.8	-6.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,191,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -129,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,061,575 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	84.0	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	54.0	3.5
– Net Position:	-2,191,434	1,997,863	193,571
– Gross Longs:	536,772	5,596,235	429,630
– Gross Shorts:	2,728,206	3,598,372	236,059
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	87.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	17.4	4.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -906,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 31,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -937,755 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	77.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	61.3	6.6
– Net Position:	-906,106	764,191	141,915
– Gross Longs:	495,027	3,663,652	452,338
– Gross Shorts:	1,401,133	2,899,461	310,423
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	72.3	94.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	15.0	13.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -167,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,399 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	76.8	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	68.2	11.1
– Net Position:	-167,888	192,447	-24,559
– Gross Longs:	277,763	1,725,230	224,733
– Gross Shorts:	445,651	1,532,783	249,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	38.1	88.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.7	29.4	29.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -107,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,902 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	75.8	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	74.1	7.6
– Net Position:	-107,687	30,179	77,508
– Gross Longs:	202,519	1,371,696	214,303
– Gross Shorts:	310,206	1,341,517	136,795
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.9	47.7	70.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.6	26.2	-12.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -247,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -27,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -220,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	82.9	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	71.4	7.5
– Net Position:	-247,602	216,313	31,289
– Gross Longs:	121,329	1,557,962	173,007
– Gross Shorts:	368,931	1,341,649	141,718
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	22.5	52.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-0.8	-2.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

26 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (13,275 contracts) with Live Cattle (7,421 contracts), Soybeans (5,523 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,796 contracts), Sugar (3,421 contracts), Cotton (3,378 contracts), Coffee (1,122 contracts) and Cocoa (966 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-14,339 contracts), Soybean Meal (-6,840 contracts) and with Wheat (-5,643 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (76 percent) and Soybean Oil (75 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (66 percent), Soybeans (65 percent) and Corn (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (7 percent) and Soybean Meal (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were Sugar (21 percent) and Cotton (23 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (63.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (65.1 percent)
Sugar (21.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.1 percent)
Coffee (65.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (64.6 percent)
Soybeans (64.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (63.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (75.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (72.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (17.5 percent)
Live Cattle (76.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (69.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (52.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (41.8 percent)
Cotton (22.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.5 percent)
Cocoa (25.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (24.9 percent)
Wheat (6.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (11.0 percent)

Soybean Oil & Cotton top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (34 percent) and Cotton (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (17 percent), Sugar (8 percent) and Soybean Meal (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-12 percent), Corn (-6 percent) and Lean Hogs (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-6.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-13.2 percent)
Sugar (7.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.2 percent)
Coffee (-14.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-18.3 percent)
Soybeans (17.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (21.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (34.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (22.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (13.0 percent)
Live Cattle (1.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-5.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-22.1 percent)
Cotton (19.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.5 percent)
Cocoa (-1.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.1 percent)
Wheat (-12.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-2.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 219,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 234,182 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	45.3	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	54.8	10.5
– Net Position:	219,843	-161,479	-58,364
– Gross Longs:	450,712	773,840	121,656
– Gross Shorts:	230,869	935,319	180,020
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.3	39.5	38.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	7.5	-7.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 33,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	55.8	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	59.7	7.0
– Net Position:	33,235	-32,502	-733
– Gross Longs:	193,078	463,598	57,180
– Gross Shorts:	159,843	496,100	57,913
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.2	81.8	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.8	-3.1	-17.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,934 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	41.9	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	71.5	3.9
– Net Position:	41,056	-43,332	2,276
– Gross Longs:	51,215	61,110	8,005
– Gross Shorts:	10,159	104,442	5,729
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.7	35.6	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	15.6	-15.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 55,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,523 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,161 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	52.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	55.8	8.2
– Net Position:	55,684	-31,452	-24,232
– Gross Longs:	191,535	422,467	42,698
– Gross Shorts:	135,851	453,919	66,930
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	35.9	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.4	-20.3	20.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 60,391 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	48.8	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	60.7	4.5
– Net Position:	60,391	-66,889	6,498
– Gross Longs:	133,444	273,789	31,901
– Gross Shorts:	73,053	340,678	25,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.2	27.5	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.2	-34.3	21.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -30,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	48.9	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	46.7	5.1
– Net Position:	-30,976	13,581	17,395
– Gross Longs:	114,769	295,935	48,216
– Gross Shorts:	145,745	282,354	30,821
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.7	83.1	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-5.9	3.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 99,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.8	30.2	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	53.2	14.1
– Net Position:	99,006	-78,413	-20,593
– Gross Longs:	159,752	103,109	27,583
– Gross Shorts:	60,746	181,522	48,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.3	26.7	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-2.6	1.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 31,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	35.7	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	47.0	8.4
– Net Position:	31,296	-29,609	-1,687
– Gross Longs:	93,049	93,132	20,201
– Gross Shorts:	61,753	122,741	21,888
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.0	45.4	67.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	5.2	4.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -25,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	49.7	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.4	37.0	6.0
– Net Position:	-25,078	27,632	-2,554
– Gross Longs:	60,797	108,112	10,492
– Gross Shorts:	85,875	80,480	13,046
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	80.5	1.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-16.4	-19.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 966 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,611 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	41.3	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	63.1	6.6
– Net Position:	15,577	-18,970	3,393
– Gross Longs:	25,112	35,919	9,148
– Gross Shorts:	9,535	54,889	5,755
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	74.6	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	2.0	-3.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -93,969 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,643 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	38.1	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	18.1	7.1
– Net Position:	-93,969	90,745	3,224
– Gross Longs:	114,514	173,053	35,271
– Gross Shorts:	208,483	82,308	32,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.7	93.7	74.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	11.1	11.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

26 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE-Mini (15,219 contracts) with the VIX (11,552 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (5,886 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (646 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-12,838 contracts) and with the Russell-Mini (-7,398 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (98 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (89 percent) and the Russell-Mini (77 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

The lowest strength score this week was the DowJones-Mini (62 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (89.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (79.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (64.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (66.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (61.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (60.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (97.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (88.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (77.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (82.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (74.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (52.8 percent)

Nikkei 225 & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (35 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (23 percent) and the VIX (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-26 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (10.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (20.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-28.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-17.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-1.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-1.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (23.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (15.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (3.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-26.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-20.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	43.9	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	42.8	9.3
– Net Position:	-5,745	3,019	2,726
– Gross Longs:	78,508	119,924	28,192
– Gross Shorts:	84,253	116,905	25,466
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.4	10.5	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-14.0	23.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -75,935 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,838 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	74.5	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	72.9	8.9
– Net Position:	-75,935	36,396	39,539
– Gross Longs:	260,930	1,646,290	236,445
– Gross Shorts:	336,865	1,609,894	196,906
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	40.3	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.2	38.0	-38.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	66.2	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	66.0	13.6
– Net Position:	887	217	-1,104
– Gross Longs:	9,623	52,324	9,616
– Gross Shorts:	8,736	52,107	10,720
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.7	38.6	47.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	6.8	-21.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 37,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,886 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	53.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	68.8	14.0
– Net Position:	37,680	-37,245	-435
– Gross Longs:	76,663	129,366	33,405
– Gross Shorts:	38,983	166,611	33,840
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.6	13.5	53.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.2	10.2	-46.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 679 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	72.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	73.1	5.8
– Net Position:	-6,719	-4,795	11,514
– Gross Longs:	83,303	334,265	38,247
– Gross Shorts:	90,022	339,060	26,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.4	21.0	56.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	-0.6	7.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	60.5	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.5	75.4	22.1
– Net Position:	1,904	-1,590	-314
– Gross Longs:	2,169	6,480	2,056
– Gross Shorts:	265	8,070	2,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	15.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.0	-26.7	-5.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,269 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	88.4	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	87.0	1.3
– Net Position:	-11,050	6,859	4,191
– Gross Longs:	41,995	412,914	10,383
– Gross Shorts:	53,045	406,055	6,192
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	34.5	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.0	25.9	-14.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

25 Apr

The Mexican peso strengthened to a 6-month high. Natural gas prices fell to a 5-month low

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones (US30) was up 1.23% on Thursday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.03%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 2.79%. The US stocks rose on Thursday, posting gains for the third straight session, as technology shares led gains and investors weighed mixed signals from the Trump administration on tariffs and trade talks with China. Hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut also strengthened after the Cleveland Fed president said there could be action in June if supported by data.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 19.6 per US dollar, hitting its highest level in six months, helped by the general weakening of the US dollar and expectations of a continued hawkish stance by the Bank of Mexico. Mexico’s wide real rate differential continues to attract robust carry-trade inflows, while a “very productive” conversation between Presidents Trump and Sheinbaum eased concerns over potential US tariffs. In addition, stable oil export revenues support Mexico’s external accounts.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.47%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.27% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.22%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.05% yesterday. European stock indices reversed early losses and closed higher on Thursday, recording three consecutive days of gains, helped by a positive session on Wall Street. Despite this, the German government lowered its economic growth forecast 2025, predicting stagnation instead of 0.3% growth, citing ongoing global uncertainty caused by trade tensions.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) fell to $2.9/MMBtu, the lowest in five months, amid lower gas prices in major European and Asian centers amid oversupply and uncertain demand due to macroeconomic factors. The new data showed that gas production in the lower 48 US states rose to 106.6 billion cubic feet per day in April, a record high. This coincided with warmer-than-normal temperatures, which are expected to persist through early May, reducing demand for gas-intensive heating.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.49% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.35%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 0.74%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.60%. China has begun issuing special bonds to guard against rising trade tensions. Beijing also cut its list of sectors negative for foreign investment from 117 to 106, signaling a desire to further open up the market.

The New Zealand dollar slid to around USD0.598 on Friday but remained on track for a third straight weekly gain amid optimism over trade talks between the US and China. Earlier this week, Trump hinted at softening his aggressive trade stance toward China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, by proposing significantly reducing tariffs on Chinese imports. Domestically, expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand continue to weigh on the currency. Markets remain focused on a 25bp rate cut at the RBNZ’s May meeting, with rates likely to reach the 2.75% level by year-end.

On Friday, the Australian dollar dipped below US$0.64, trimming gains from the previous session as the US dollar strengthened on signs of easing global trade tensions. On the domestic front, data released earlier this week showed that Australia’s private sector activity rose for the seventh consecutive month in April, thanks to strong growth in both manufacturing and services. Despite the positive economic data, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points again in May as the country prepares for the potential economic impact of the recently imposed US tariffs.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,484.77 +108.91 (+2.03%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,093.40 +486.83 (+1.23%)

DAX (DE40) 22,064.51 +102.54 (+0.47%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,407.44 +4.26 (+0.05%)

USD index 99.31 -0.54 (-0.54%)

News feed for: 2025.04.25

Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel speaks at 11:00 (GMT+3);
Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

25 Apr

Week Ahead: US500 braces for massive week of risk events

By ForexTime

US500 rebounds 15% from 2025 low
Meta, Microsoft, Amazon & Apple make almost 20% of US500 weight
US GDP, PCE & NFP report could impact Fed cut bets
NFP sparked moves of ↑ 1.2% & ↓ 3.2% over past year
Technical levels: 50-day SMA, 5500 & 5300

US-China trade developments, major economic data and big tech earnings will dominate the week ahead:

Sunday, 27th April

CN50: China industrial profits

Monday, 28th April

SG20: Singapore unemployment
CAD: Canadians head to the polls in a snap vote

Tuesday, 29th April

EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
SPN35: Spain GDP, CPI
UK100: HSBC earnings
RUS2000: Conference Board consumer confidence

Wednesday, 30th April

AUD: Australia CPI
CN50: China official PMIs, Caixin manufacturing PMI
EUR: Eurozone GDP
GER40: Germany CPI, GDP, unemployment
JP225: Japan industrial production, retail sales
TWN: Taiwan GDP
US500: US GDP, PCE price index, ADP employment, Meta, Microsoft earnings

Thursday, 1st May

May Day – European markets closed except UK
AUD: Australia trade
JPY: BoJ rate decision
UK100: UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
US500: US ISM manufacturing, initial jobless claims, Amazon, Apple earnings

Friday, 2nd May

AUD: Australia retail sales
EUR: Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI
JP225: Japan unemployment
US500: US April jobs report

The spotlight shines on FXTM’s US500 which has rebounded 15% from its 2025 low.

Note: FXTM’s US500 tracks the underlying S&P 500 index

Recently, US equities have been empowered by bets around the Fed cutting interest rates sooner than expected to prevent a recession. However, uncertainty around trade talks may impact upside gains.

Still, the US500 is over 4% this week, lingering around key resistance at 5500.

Here are 4 factors that could trigger significant price swings:

1) US-China trade saga

China denied having any trade talks with the United States despite Trump’s claims of progress earlier in the week. However, Trump has pushed back against China’s denial, stating that negotiations were happening.

On a brighter note, there are reports of China’s government weighing the suspension of its 125% tariffs on some US imports.

If this eases tensions and paves the path to actual negotiations, the US500 may jump as risk appetite improves.
Any signs of escalating tensions or growing uncertainty around trade developments may weigh on the US500.

2) Big tech earnings

Four of the so-called “Magnificent” 7 tech giants with a combined market cap of over $9 trillion are set to publish their results in the week ahead.

Quarterly results from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple could provide fresh insight into how the industry fared last quarter in the face of Trump’s tariffs. Google-parent Alphabet has already set the bar high by reporting solid earnings.

Considering that the combined weight of Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple makes up roughly 19% of the US500, the incoming earnings could spark significant price swings.

A solid set of results and optimistic forward guidance from tech titans may propel the US500 higher.
Should results disappoint and concerns expressed about the earnings outlook, the US500 could sink.

3) US data dump: Q1 GDP, PCE inflation, ISM & NFP

Fed officials have hinted at a possible rate cut if tariffs start weighing on the US jobs market and economic growth.

This puts extra attention on the US data dump in the week ahead, featuring Q1 GDP, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the latest NFP jobs report.

Wednesday 30th April – Q1 GDP, US PCE price index

Note: Over the past 12 months, the US GDP report has triggered upside moves on the US500 of as much as 0.7% or declines of 1.7% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Thursday 1st April – US ISM Manufacturing

Note: Over the past 12 months, the US ISM Manufacturing report has triggered upside moves on the US500 of as much as 1.0% or declines of 2.0% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Friday 2nd April – US April NFP report

Note: Over the past 12 months, the US NFP report has triggered upside moves on the US500 of as much as 1.2% or declines of 3.2% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Traders are currently pricing three Fed rate cuts in 2025 with the odds of a fourth cut by December at 35%. Any major shifts to these bets may influence the US500.

A set of figures that support the case around the Fed cutting interest rates sooner than expected may push the US500 higher. But gains may be capped by recession fears.
While stronger-than-expected data may cool Fed cut bets, the US500 may rise if sentiment improves over the US economic outlook.

4) Technical forces

The US500 is testing key resistance at 5500, but prices remain below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

A solid breakout and daily close above 5500 may inspire a move toward the 50-day SMA at 5637 and the 200-day SMA at 5764.
Sustained weakness below 5500, may drag prices back toward 5300 and 5150.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

25 Apr

EUR/USD Stuck in Consolidation: Rumours Abound, but Facts Remain Scarce

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Friday, the major currency pair became further entrenched within a local sideways channel, hovering around 1.1339. The US dollar retained gains accumulated over recent sessions, supported by US President Donald Trump’s confirmation that trade negotiations with China would continue.

Key factors driving EUR/USD movements

The dollar received additional support from signs of progress in trade discussions with Japan and South Korea.

Earlier in the week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasised that substantial US-China negotiations would require significant tariff reductions, highlighting the importance of reducing tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

Trump also softened his stance on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, saying he had no plans to replace him. This statement helped alleviate investor uncertainty regarding the Fed’s leadership.

Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack suggested that an interest rate cut could materialise as early as June, contingent on economic data. While this initially weighed on the dollar, the currency regained strength amid renewed trade optimism.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD

H4 chart

The EUR/USD pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.1358. We anticipate the downward wave to continue towards 1.1280, followed by a potential corrective rebound to 1.1427. A subsequent decline towards 1.1045 remains plausible. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line firmly below zero and pointing downward.

H1 chart

On the hourly chart, the pair continues its downward trajectory towards 1.1280, with this level likely to be tested imminently. A corrective pullback towards 1.1427 may follow. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line currently below 20 and poised for an upward swing towards 80.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains confined within a consolidation phase, with trade developments and Fed policy expectations driving near-term volatility. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels for confirmation of the next directional move.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

25 Apr

Why predicting battery performance is like forecasting traffic − and how researchers are making progress

By Emmanuel Olugbade, Missouri University of Science and Technology

Lithium-ion batteries are quietly powering large parts of the world, including electric vehicles and smartphones. They have revolutionized how people store and use energy. But as these batteries become more central to daily life, they bring more attention to the challenges of managing them and the energy they store safely, efficiently and intelligently.

I’m a mechanical engineer who studies these nearly ubiquitous batteries. They have been around for decades, yet researchers like me are still trying to fully understand how these batteries behave – especially when they are working hard.

Batteries may seem simple, but they are as complicated as the real-world uses people devise for them.

The big picture

At their core, lithium-ion batteries rely on the movement of charged particles, called ions, of the element lithium between two electric poles, or electrodes. The lithium ions move from the positive electrode to the negative one through a conductive substance called an electrolyte, which can be a solid or a liquid.

The basics of how a lithium-ion battery works.

How much energy these batteries store and how well they work depends on a tangle of factors, including the temperature, physical structure of the battery and how the materials age over time.

Around the world, researchers are trying to answer questions about each of these factors individually and in concert with each other. Some research focuses on improving lifespan and calculating how batteries degrade over time. Other projects are tackling safety under extreme conditions, such as fast-charging use in extreme climates – either hot or cold. Many are exploring entirely new materials that could make batteries cheaper, longer-lasting or safer. And a significant group – including me – are working with computer simulations to improve real-time battery monitoring.

Real‑time monitoring in your electric vehicle’s battery system functions like a health check: It tracks voltage, current and temperature to estimate how much energy remains so you won’t be stranded with a dead battery.

But it’s difficult to precisely measure how well each of the energy cells within the battery is performing as they age or as the weather changes from cold in winter to hotter in summer. So the battery management system uses a computer simulation to estimate those factors. When combined with real-time monitoring, the system can prevent overusing the battery, balance charging speed with long-term health, avoid power failures and keep performance high. But there are a lot of variables.

The traffic analogy

One of the best ways to understand this challenge is to think about city traffic.

Let’s say you want to drive across town and need to determine whether your car has enough charge to travel the best route. If your navigation simulator accounted for every stoplight, every construction zone and every vehicle on the road, it would give you a very accurate answer. But it might take an hour to run, by which time the circumstances would have changed and the answer would likely be wrong. That’s not helpful if you’re trying to make a decision right now.

A simpler model might assume that every road is clear and every car is moving at the speed limit. That simulation delivers a result instantly – but its results are very inaccurate when traffic is heavy or a road is closed. It doesn’t capture the reality of rush hour.

While you’re driving, the battery management system would do a similar set of calculations to see how much charge is available for the rest of the trip. It would look at the battery’s temperature, how old it is and how much energy the car is asking for, like when going up a steep hill or accelerating quickly to keep up with other cars. But like the navigation simulations, it has to strike a balance between being extremely accurate and giving you useful information before your battery runs out in the middle of your trip.

The most accurate models, which simulate every chemical reaction inside the battery, are too slow for real-time use. The faster models simplify things so much that they miss key behaviors – especially under stress, such as fast charging or sudden bursts of energy use.

How researchers are bridging the gap

This trade-off between speed and accuracy is at the heart of battery modeling research today. Scientists and engineers are exploring many ways to solve it.

Some are rewriting modeling software to make the physics calculations more efficient, reducing complexity without losing the key details. Others, like me, are turning to machine learning – training computers to recognize patterns in data and make fast, accurate predictions without having to solve every underlying equation.

In my recent work, I used a high-accuracy battery simulator – one of the ones that’s really accurate but very slow – to generate a massive amount of data about how a battery functions when charging and discharging. I used that data to train a machine learning algorithm called XGBoost, which is particularly good at finding patterns in data.

Then I used software to pair the XGBoost system with a simple, fast-running battery model that captures the basic physics but can miss finer details. The simpler model puts out an initial set of results, and the XGBoost element fine-tunes those to make corrections on the fly, especially when the battery is under strain.

The result is a hybrid model that is able to respond both quickly and accurately to changes in driving conditions. A driver who floors the accelerator with just the simple model wouldn’t get enough energy; a more detailed model would give the right amount of energy only after it finished all its calculations. My hybrid model delivers a rapid boost of energy without delays.

Other teams are working on similar hybrid approaches, blending physics and artificial intelligence in creative ways. Some are even building digital twins – real-time virtual replicas of physical batteries – to offer sophisticated simulations that update constantly as conditions change.

What’s next

Battery research is moving quickly, and the field is already seeing signs of change. Models are becoming more reliable across a wider range of conditions. Engineers are using real-time monitoring to extend battery life, prevent overheating and improve energy efficiency. Machine learning lets researchers train battery management systems to optimize performance for specific applications, such as high power demands in electric vehicles, daily cycles of home electricity use, short power bursts for drones, or long-duration requirements for building-scale battery systems.

And there’s more to come: Researchers are working to include other important factors into their battery models, such as heat generation and mechanical stress.

Some teams are taking hybrid models and compiling their software into lightweight code that runs on microcontrollers inside battery hardware. In practice, that means each battery pack carries its own brain on-board, calculating state-of-charge, estimating aging and tracking thermal or mechanical stress in near-real time. By embedding the model in the device’s electronics, the pack can autonomously adjust its charging and discharging strategy on the fly, making every battery smarter, safer and more efficient.

As the energy landscape evolves – with more electric vehicles on the road, more renewable energy sources feeding into the grid, and more people relying on batteries in daily life – the ability to understand what a battery is doing in real time becomes more critical than ever.

About the Author:

Emmanuel Olugbade, Ph.D. Candidate in Mechanical Engineering, Missouri University of Science and Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

25 Apr

Tourists are cancelling trips to the US – here’s how this could affect its economy

By Ross Bennett-Cook, Leeds Beckett University

The United States is one of the top three most visited countries in the world. The big draw cards – cities such as San Francisco, New York and Chicago and national parks such as Yosemite – have attracted international tourists for decades. This combined with its role as a global business powerhouse meant it had 66.5 million visitors in 2023 – and the 2024 figure is expected to be higher still.

But a lot has changed in recent months, and 2025’s figures may not be as strong. The 2024 reelection of Donald Trump as the president of the United States and the consequential changes in foreign diplomacy and relations, alongside internal cultural shifts, are starting to change global attitudes towards the US – attitudes that appear to be affecting tourists’ desire to visit the US.

In a recent report by research firm Tourism Economics, inbound travel to the US is now projected to decline by 5.5% this year, instead of growing by nearly 9% as had previously been forecast. A further escalation in tariff and trade wars could result in further reductions in international tourism, which could amount to a US$18 billion (£13.8 billion) annual reduction in tourist spending in 2025.

There is already some evidence of travel cancellations. Since Trump announced 25% tariffs on many Canadian goods, the number of Canadians driving across the border at some crossings has fallen by up to 45%, on some days, when compared to last year. Canada is the biggest source of international tourists to the US. Air Canada has announced it is reducing flights to some US holiday destinations, including Las Vegas, from March, as demand reduces.

According to a March poll by Canadian market researcher Leger, 36% of Canadians who had planned trips to the United States had already cancelled them. According to data from the aviation analytics company OAG, passenger bookings on Canada to US routes are down by over 70% compared to the same period last year. This comes after the U.S. Travel Association warned that even a 10% reduction in Canadian inbound travel could result in a US$2.1 billion (£1.6 billion) loss in spending, putting 140,000 hospitality jobs at risk.

An unwelcoming environment?

Some would-be visitors have cited an unwelcoming political climate as part of a concern about visiting the US – including angry rhetoric about foreigners, migrants and the LGBTQ+ community. The Tourism Economics report also cited “polarizing Trump Administration policies and rhetoric” as a factor in travel cancellations.

There are other factors that may influence travellers from, for instance, western Europe, which represented 37% of overseas travel to the US last year. These include US tariffs pushing prices up at home and the US administration’s perceived alignment with Russia in the war in Ukraine.

Canadian trips to the US are going down.

Research by YouGov in March found that western European attitudes towards the US have become more negative since Trump’s reelection last November. More than half of people in Britain (53%), Germany (56%), Sweden (63%) and Denmark (74%) now have an unfavourable opinion of the US. In five of the seven countries polled, figures for US favourability are at the lowest since polling began in November 2016.

Border issues

Some high-profile cases at the US border could also be putting off tourists. In March, a British woman was handcuffed and detained for more than ten days by US Customs Enforcement after a visa problem. In the same month, a Canadian tourist was detained after attempting to renew her visa at the US-Mexico border. During the 12-day detention, she was held in crowded jail cells and even put in chains.

Mexico is the US’s second largest inbound travel market. Tourism Economics suggests that issues around new border enforcement rules will raise concerns with potential Mexican tourists. During Trump’s first term in office, Mexican visits to the US fell by 3%. In February this year, air travel from Mexico had already fallen 6% when compared to 2024.

Many countries including Canada have been updating their travel advice for the US. For instance, on March 15 the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office updated its advice for the US, warning visitors that “you may be liable to arrest or detention if you break the rules”. The previous version of advice, from February, had no mention of arrest or detention. Germany has made similar updates to its travel advisory, after several Germans were recently detained for weeks by US border officials.

Multiple European countries, including France, Germany, Denmark and Norway have also issued specific travel warnings to transgender and non-binary citizens, as US authorities demand tourists declare their biological sex at birth on visa applications. This comes as the US has stopped issuing of passports with a X marker – commonly used by those identifying as non-binary – for its own citizens.

Alternative destinations

As thousands of travellers cancel their trips to the US, other destinations are seeing a spike in interest. Hotels in Bermuda have reported a surge in enquiries as Canadians relocate business and leisure trips away from the US, with some predicting a 20% increase in revenue from Canadian visits.

Europe too has reported increased bookings from Canada, with rental properties experiencing a 32% jump in summer reservations when compared to last year, according to some reports.

There are already growing concerns that visa and entry restrictions will disrupt fans and athletes from enjoying 2026 men’s Fifa World Cup, held on sites in the US, Canada and Mexico. Visitors from some countries, such as Brazil, Turkey and Colombia, could wait up to 700 days to obtain visas. The International Olympic Committee has also raised concerns over the 2028 Olympics Games in Los Angeles, although US officials have insisted that “America will be open”.

With mounting visa delays, stricter border enforcement and growing concerns over human rights and anti-minority rhetoric, the United States risks losing its appeal as a top holiday destination. The long-term impact on its tourism industry may prove difficult to reverse.

About the Author:

Ross Bennett-Cook, PhD Researcher, Carnegie School of Sport, Leeds Beckett University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

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