InvestMacro

Tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican goods went into effect today. China is imposing retaliatory tariffs

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.48%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 1.76%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 2.20%. The US stocks continued to decline on Monday amid the release of pessimistic economic data, concerns over the imposition of tariffs, and geopolitical disagreements between Washington and Ukraine. The latest ISM report showed that US manufacturing growth in February was stronger than expected, driven by weaker demand, slower production, and higher prices due to tariffs, among other factors. Investors are now focused on Friday’s monthly jobs report for more labor market updates.

The Mexican peso fell to around 20.7 per US dollar, hitting its lowest level in a month, as trade war fears weighed on sentiment after US President Donald Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on goods from the country will take effect early Tuesday. In terms of economic news, Mexico’s manufacturing sector contracted for the eighth consecutive month, indicating continued weakness in industrial activity. Business confidence also fell in February, underscoring the gloomy economic outlook. Along with weak labor, inflation, and GDP numbers, the latest data has reinforced expectations that Banxico will further reduce borrowing costs.

The Canadian dollar slipped to 1.45 per US dollar, marking its eighth straight session of losses and hitting a one-month low, as rising trade war fears continued to dampen market sentiment. US President Donald Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on Canadian goods will take effect as planned, saying there is “no room left” to avoid tariffs.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.64%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.09% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) Index gained 0.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.70%. European leaders met over the weekend and showed consensus on increasing military spending to leverage a potential peace deal in Ukraine and respond to signs of reluctance to coordinate defense with the United States.

WTI crude oil prices fell to around $68 a barrel on Tuesday, near a three-month low, as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs against key trading partners took effect and OPEC+ signaled plans to resume suspended production. Beijing immediately retaliated by imposing additional tariffs of up to 15% on imports of key agricultural products from the US, which will take effect on March 10. That has heightened fears of a global trade war that could hurt economic growth and reduce energy demand. On Monday, OPEC+ said it would start rolling back production cuts of 2.2 million barrels a day from April 1, restoring supplies that have been capped since 2022, adding to downward pressure.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.83% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.34%.

On Tuesday, China imposed tariffs on US goods and other trade measures in response to US President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on all Chinese imports to 20% from 10%. China’s Ministry of Finance announced 15% tariffs on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, and 10% tariffs on soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, fruits, vegetables, seafood, and dairy products. These measures will take effect on March 10. The new tariffs coincide with the start of a key annual policy meeting in China this week. The country is expected to adopt new stimulus measures to help its economy withstand the impact of the increased tariffs.

The Australian dollar slipped as low as $0.62 on Tuesday, nearing a one-month low, after minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February meeting showed policymakers focused on downside risks to the economy, indicating a more dovish stance. The Central Bank also noted weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter inflation data and slowing wage growth. The currency’s fall was exacerbated after US President Donald Trump confirmed that tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China would take effect as planned. Given Australia’s heavy reliance on exports, any disruption to global trade is expected to have a significant impact on the economy.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,849.72 −104.78 (−1.76%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,191.24 −649.67 (−1.48%)

DAX (DE40) 23,147.02 +595.59 (+2.64%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,871.31 +61.57 (+0.70%)

USD Index 107.56 −0.32 (−0.30%)

News feed for: 2025.03.04

Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

03 Mar

Tariff threats and US foreign policy create uncertainty in financial markets

By JustMarkets

At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 1.39% (for the week +0.80%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.59% (for the week -1.20%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) is up 1.62% (for the week -3.62%). The latest data showed PCE prices rose by 0.3% month-over-month in January, matching expectations, while the annualized rate fell to 2.5% from 2.6% in December. The report also showed an unexpected 0.2% drop in consumer spending, the first decline in nearly two years, while incomes rose by 0.9%, the biggest increase in a year. Market attention has now turned to US trade policy.

In recent weeks, US tariff threats and doubts about whether its defense commitments will hold up have become the biggest concern for businesses, investors, and politicians. This means uncertainty, and lack of visibility is often associated with business caution when making investment decisions. The postponement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico supported the assumptions of those who believe that tariffs were a negotiating tactic and may have contributed to the complacency that until tariffs are in place, they are not worth believing in until they are seen. Nevertheless, in late February, when Trump reiterated his threat to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4, the Dollar Index posted its biggest gain in three weeks and ended February at two-week highs.

After the White House announced a digital assets’ summit this week, President Trump took to the social media platform Truth to explain some of the details, specifically mentioning a strategic reserve that would include XRP, SOL, and ADA. All three “altcoins” rose sharply against this backdrop, pushing the broad market higher over the weekend.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.002% (for the week +0.36%), France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed higher by 0.11% (for the week -0.33%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.58% (for the week +2.91%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.61% (for the week +1.74%).

German inflation was unchanged at 2.3% in February, but the core rate fell to a more than three-year low of 2.6%, while French inflation fell more than expected to a four-year low of 0.8%. Meanwhile, inflation in Italy and Spain accelerated to 1.7% and 3.0%, respectively, in line with expectations. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the fifth consecutive time on Thursday and signal further cuts amid slowing inflation and weak economic growth.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Britain, France, and Ukraine are working on a ceasefire plan to present to the United States. Starmer’s Sunday leaders’ summit contrasted with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s meeting at the White House on Friday. Zelensky won the support of European leaders after a contentious White House meeting Friday in which a rare earth metals deal was canceled and Trump told Zelensky to return when he was ready for peace. Starmer also promised to increase military spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027. A cut in US aid could force Europe to take more responsibility for Ukraine’s security.

WTI crude oil prices rose to around $70.1 a barrel on Monday, helped by strong data on manufacturing activity in China, the world’s largest oil importer, as well as ongoing tensions between the US and Ukraine that could lead to supply disruptions. Traders were also concerned about Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese goods, raising fears of weakening global demand.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 3.55%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.58%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 2.26%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.49%.

According to experts, if the US imposes 10% tariffs on goods from China, it will force the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to cut rates by 20-30 bps. At the same time, analysts believe that the PBoC will be forced to reduce the rate by 50 bps without tariffs due to weak economic growth. Thus, by the end of 2025, we may see a cumulative reduction in the PBoC rate by 70-100 bps. For Asian indices, this would be a fundamental message for growth.

The Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy for the yuan’s exchange rate, also benefited from stronger-than-expected Chinese PMI data, while investors awaited potential stimulus announcements from the National People’s Congress in Beijing this week. A private survey showed China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in February from 50.1 in January, beating expectations of 50.3 and hitting a three-month high. Domestically, attention turned to Australia’s upcoming fourth-quarter economic growth data due for release on Wednesday, with a moderate improvement expected.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,954.50 +92.93 (+1.59%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,840.91 +601.41 (+1.39%)

DAX (DE40) 22,551.43 +0.54 (+0.0024%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,809.74 +53.53 (+0.61%)

USD Index 107.56 +0.32 (+0.30%)

News feed for: 2025.03.03

Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
Indonesian Inflation Rate (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

02 Mar

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen Bets Up to New Record High

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were decisively higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (35,411 contracts) with the EuroFX (25,995 contracts), the Mexican Peso (14,057 contracts), the Australian Dollar (11,143 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (6,737 contracts), the British Pound Sterling (5,042 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,438 contracts) and Bitcoin (571 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the New Zealand Dollar (-1,546 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,036 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (-1,101 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen bets up to New Record High

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued boost in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators.

Japanese yen speculator positions have continued their remarkable run of bullish bets since January and increased for a sixth consecutive weekly gain. This week’s rise in speculator bets was by over +35,000 contracts and marks the fifth time out of the past six weeks positions have gained by over +10,000 contracts.

Overall, the last six weeks have added a total of +125,391 contracts to the net positioning and has brought the total net position to a new all-time record high of +95,980 contracts. The previous record high was +71,870 contracts that took place in 2016 and the previous high (before 2016) was in March of 2008.

Japanese 10-Year Bond Yields

The yen exchange rate, despite the record high sentiment, has not exactly shared the same upside as of yet. The yen futures dipped this week by approximately -1 percent but had risen in five out of the previous six weeks. The yen exchange versus the US Dollar remains close to the lowest levels since the 1990’s at the 0.0066 futures price level and the USDJPY currency pair still holds above the major level of 150.00.

The Bank of Japan has raised its interest rate this year to the highest level in 17 years with some forecasts expecting the BOJ to increase it at least one more time. The Japanese 10-year bond yield has been rising strongly as well with the recent yield of 1.45 percent marking the highest level since 2009.

The strengthening speculator sentiment could signal a shift in the views toward the Japanese currency and which could take the currency’s fortunes some time to build upon. It could also possibly be a false start in which an unwinding of the speculator bets would once again put downward pressure on the JPY exchange rate into new multi-decade depths. Either way, this development bears watching.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) leads the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (56 percent) and the Brazilian Real (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (1 percent) and the EuroFX (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (21 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (26 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (39.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (41.4 percent)
EuroFX (19.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (9.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (38.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (35.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (87.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (20.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (23.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (26.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (23.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (44.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (36.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (1.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (43.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (36.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (54.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.0 percent)
Bitcoin (55.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (43.3 percent)

Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (45 percent) and the Brazilian Real (35 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (23 percent), the EuroFX (13 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-2 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (6.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (16.8 percent)
EuroFX (13.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (1.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-6.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (44.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (11.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-1.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (1.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (35.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (32.2 percent)
Bitcoin (-24.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-34.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.1	17.2	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	58.9	7.0
– Net Position:	15,732	-15,861	129
– Gross Longs:	25,906	6,543	2,808
– Gross Shorts:	10,174	22,404	2,679
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	62.8	27.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-3.1	-16.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 25,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	55.0	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	55.1	8.0
– Net Position:	-25,425	-640	26,065
– Gross Longs:	182,699	362,477	78,634
– Gross Shorts:	208,124	363,117	52,569
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	81.0	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.3	-16.7	31.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	47.5	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	44.4	17.8
– Net Position:	4,463	6,186	-10,649
– Gross Longs:	74,089	95,277	24,992
– Gross Shorts:	69,626	89,091	35,641
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	63.8	39.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-3.5	10.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 95,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 35,411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,569 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.2	28.3	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	61.4	10.0
– Net Position:	95,980	-108,945	12,965
– Gross Longs:	171,751	93,060	45,737
– Gross Shorts:	75,771	202,005	32,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	95.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.8	-46.1	35.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	84.2	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	32.0	22.2
– Net Position:	-39,460	50,769	-11,309
– Gross Longs:	5,019	81,861	10,235
– Gross Shorts:	44,479	31,092	21,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	82.2	30.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	-9.1	26.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -137,906 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	81.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.6	37.0	10.2
– Net Position:	-137,906	142,821	-4,915
– Gross Longs:	20,523	261,075	27,768
– Gross Shorts:	158,429	118,254	32,683
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	74.9	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-15.9	24.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -45,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	56.5	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.9	28.4	16.7
– Net Position:	-45,580	52,332	-6,752
– Gross Longs:	50,873	105,108	24,241
– Gross Shorts:	96,453	52,776	30,993
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	61.1	31.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-20.8	7.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -53,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,546 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,163 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	79.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.6	18.9	5.9
– Net Position:	-53,709	55,044	-1,335
– Gross Longs:	13,628	72,094	3,958
– Gross Shorts:	67,337	17,050	5,293
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.1	97.7	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	0.5	15.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 28,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	49.4	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	66.8	3.9
– Net Position:	28,730	-26,207	-2,523
– Gross Longs:	70,337	74,354	3,415
– Gross Shorts:	41,607	100,561	5,938
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	60.7	8.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-11.5	-1.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.9	51.1	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	53.7	1.6
– Net Position:	2,378	-3,962	1,584
– Gross Longs:	63,879	77,856	3,952
– Gross Shorts:	61,501	81,818	2,368
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.3	45.5	29.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.4	-37.5	15.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.3	4.6	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.6	5.5	4.4
– Net Position:	204	-261	57
– Gross Longs:	25,737	1,489	1,480
– Gross Shorts:	25,533	1,750	1,423
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.7	56.9	14.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.7	31.4	-9.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Mar

Speculator Extremes: Yen, US Bonds, NZ Dollar & Cotton lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 25th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position continued higher and comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 44.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 95,980 net contracts this week with a boost of 35,411 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

US Treasury Bond

The US Treasury Bond speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The US Treasury Bond speculator level is now at a 97.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 14.2 this week. The speculator position registered 40,912 net contracts this week with a weekly reduction by -6,869 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 94.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 28.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 3,897 net contracts this week with a decline of -1,193 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 90.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 11.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 441,161 net contracts this week with a decrease by -27,563 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level sits at a 87.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.6 this week.

The speculator position was -227,735 net contracts this week with a rise of 18,507 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 1.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -53,709 net contracts this week with a dip by -1,546 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 4.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.1 this week. The speculator position was -43,486 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,418 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 12.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -36,112 net contracts this week with a drop by -14,516 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 14.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -60.5 this week. The speculator position was 171,198 net contracts this week with a reduction by -26,396 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 19.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 8.1 this week. The speculator position was -1,625,773 net contracts this week with a gain of 111,760 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Mar

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Positions led by Copper & Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (5,475 contracts) with Steel (4,618 contracts) also coming in with a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-7,361 contracts), Gold (-7,049 contracts), Palladium (-2,503 contracts) and with Silver (-1,592 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (90 percent) and Silver (83 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (80 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (42 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (79.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (82.3 percent)
Silver (83.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (85.0 percent)
Copper (52.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (47.6 percent)
Platinum (54.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (71.6 percent)
Palladium (42.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.7 percent)
Steel (89.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (68.3 percent)

Steel & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (25 percent) and Copper (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only market with a negative trend score.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-6.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (5.2 percent)
Silver (8.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.1 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.7 percent)
Platinum (1.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (13.5 percent)
Palladium (1.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (25.5 percent)
Steel (25.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (12.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 261,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 268,674 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.9	14.0	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	70.3	4.4
– Net Position:	261,625	-288,100	26,475
– Gross Longs:	316,948	71,796	48,803
– Gross Shorts:	55,323	359,896	22,328
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.6	18.6	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	5.2	12.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 52,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.9	23.3	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	66.2	7.8
– Net Position:	52,862	-70,188	17,326
– Gross Longs:	78,469	38,149	30,082
– Gross Shorts:	25,607	108,337	12,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	16.8	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-11.6	18.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	30.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	41.0	5.7
– Net Position:	20,896	-24,842	3,946
– Gross Longs:	104,032	75,169	17,858
– Gross Shorts:	83,136	100,011	13,912
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	49.0	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-16.3	-7.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 16,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.3	18.8	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	46.7	4.3
– Net Position:	16,176	-23,660	7,484
– Gross Longs:	52,850	15,967	11,117
– Gross Shorts:	36,674	39,627	3,633
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.2	39.9	80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-7.4	42.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -8,134 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.5	44.9	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.6	9.8	6.7
– Net Position:	-8,134	6,620	1,514
– Gross Longs:	6,692	8,471	2,779
– Gross Shorts:	14,826	1,851	1,265
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	4.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	51.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-6.3	31.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	58.7	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	68.3	0.5
– Net Position:	2,855	-3,034	179
– Gross Longs:	9,630	18,379	348
– Gross Shorts:	6,775	21,413	169
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.7	10.7	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-26.2	19.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

01 Mar

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 2-Year, Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year, Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (140,066 contracts), the Fed Funds (137,915 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (111,760 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (38,476 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (16,557 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (9,672 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (3,675 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond market leading the declines in speculator bets for the week was the SOFR 1-Month (-127,401 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-6,869 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (98 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (83 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (83 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (19.0 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (23 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (23 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (53.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (23.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (19.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (13.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (42.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (41.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (83.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (68.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (97.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (100.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (82.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (81.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (49.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (81.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (22.0 percent)

Fed Funds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (33 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (14 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (4.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-6.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (3.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (32.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (15.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (14.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (22.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-16.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (19.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-0.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-15.5 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 137,915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	59.9	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	60.3	1.5
– Net Position:	-6,390	-8,353	14,743
– Gross Longs:	420,888	1,254,622	47,031
– Gross Shorts:	427,278	1,262,975	32,288
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.4	40.5	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.3	-36.2	25.1

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -724,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 16,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -741,428 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	60.8	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	54.1	0.1
– Net Position:	-724,871	701,660	23,211
– Gross Longs:	1,470,019	6,375,832	29,317
– Gross Shorts:	2,194,890	5,674,172	6,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	4.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.8	75.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.7	10.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -76,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -127,401 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	56.2	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	50.9	0.8
– Net Position:	-76,324	85,618	-9,294
– Gross Longs:	416,124	908,842	3,211
– Gross Shorts:	492,448	823,224	12,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.7	52.6	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.9	19.1	-24.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,149,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 140,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,289,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	72.4	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.5	48.6	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,149,453	1,006,450	143,003
– Gross Longs:	521,528	3,063,965	270,344
– Gross Shorts:	1,670,981	2,057,515	127,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.0	73.6	81.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-11.1	9.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,625,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 111,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,737,533 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	79.5	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	57.8	4.5
– Net Position:	-1,625,773	1,452,453	173,320
– Gross Longs:	370,975	5,315,137	474,030
– Gross Shorts:	1,996,748	3,862,684	300,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.0	74.0	84.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-13.8	12.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -699,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,672 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -709,527 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	72.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	60.1	7.2
– Net Position:	-699,855	646,801	53,054
– Gross Longs:	677,868	3,780,605	429,465
– Gross Shorts:	1,377,723	3,133,804	376,411
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	58.0	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	16.9	-1.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -52,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 38,476 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	70.0	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	66.1	11.9
– Net Position:	-52,957	96,118	-43,161
– Gross Longs:	346,258	1,719,027	248,084
– Gross Shorts:	399,215	1,622,909	291,245
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	0.1	82.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.2	-32.2	-4.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,781 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	62.3	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	68.4	6.3
– Net Position:	40,912	-134,212	93,300
– Gross Longs:	415,998	1,373,857	233,255
– Gross Shorts:	375,086	1,508,069	139,955
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.6	0.0	82.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-22.5	25.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -239,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -243,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	80.8	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	68.8	8.6
– Net Position:	-239,941	214,843	25,098
– Gross Longs:	152,029	1,450,800	179,900
– Gross Shorts:	391,970	1,235,957	154,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.7	11.9	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	-14.0	43.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

01 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (54,198 contracts) with Wheat (11,414 contracts), Cotton (8,202 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,775 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,573 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-27,563 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,276 contracts), Cocoa (-8,571 contracts), Coffee (-8,181 contracts), Soybeans (-4,908 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,015 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Corn & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Corn (90 percent) and Live Cattle (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (88 percent), Lean Hogs (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (21 percent), Soybean Meal (22 percent) and Wheat (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (90.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (93.6 percent)
Sugar (21.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.0 percent)
Coffee (87.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (95.5 percent)
Soybeans (44.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (46.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (21.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (27.1 percent)
Live Cattle (90.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (93.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.5 percent)
Cotton (5.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (37.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (46.1 percent)
Wheat (32.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.7 percent)

Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (27 percent) and Wheat (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (12 percent), Live Cattle (9 percent) and Sugar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-6 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Lean Hogs (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (19.0 percent)
Sugar (6.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-22.6 percent)
Coffee (0.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (7.5 percent)
Soybeans (-6.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (10.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.9 percent)
Live Cattle (9.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.4 percent)
Cocoa (-9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.2 percent)
Wheat (16.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 441,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -27,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 468,724 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	38.8	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	57.5	10.6
– Net Position:	441,161	-358,683	-82,478
– Gross Longs:	597,706	744,225	119,966
– Gross Shorts:	156,545	1,102,908	202,444
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.0	14.9	10.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-11.5	-8.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 54,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,707 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	51.2	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	56.4	6.1
– Net Position:	33,491	-50,612	17,121
– Gross Longs:	206,226	494,532	76,510
– Gross Shorts:	172,735	545,144	59,389
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.3	76.9	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-11.0	27.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	37.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	71.9	3.5
– Net Position:	63,697	-67,169	3,472
– Gross Longs:	78,310	71,130	10,259
– Gross Shorts:	14,613	138,299	6,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.6	12.9	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-1.8	15.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,550 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,908 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	57.3	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	51.7	9.1
– Net Position:	-10,550	46,048	-35,498
– Gross Longs:	160,652	474,795	40,258
– Gross Shorts:	171,202	428,747	75,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.9	59.8	19.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	6.9	-6.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 55,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	55.4	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	67.0	4.5
– Net Position:	55,168	-65,153	9,985
– Gross Longs:	124,887	312,914	35,495
– Gross Shorts:	69,719	378,067	25,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.7	30.7	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.0	-28.6	32.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	50.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	51.0	5.7
– Net Position:	-13,967	-4,408	18,375
– Gross Longs:	102,087	294,109	51,912
– Gross Shorts:	116,054	298,517	33,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	76.0	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-2.5	-9.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 113,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	29.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	53.5	14.1
– Net Position:	113,424	-88,275	-25,149
– Gross Longs:	179,879	108,595	26,597
– Gross Shorts:	66,455	196,870	51,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	14.8	9.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.1	-9.5	-5.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.3	32.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	53.4	9.4
– Net Position:	73,220	-67,641	-5,579
– Gross Longs:	137,087	101,137	24,044
– Gross Shorts:	63,867	168,778	29,623
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.4	13.0	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	0.8	29.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -42,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	50.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	36.3	4.6
– Net Position:	-42,565	39,238	3,327
– Gross Longs:	68,832	143,745	16,498
– Gross Shorts:	111,397	104,507	13,171
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	93.8	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	2.9	20.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 26,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.8	40.0	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	67.3	4.1
– Net Position:	26,819	-33,051	6,232
– Gross Longs:	40,947	48,369	11,236
– Gross Shorts:	14,128	81,420	5,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.3	60.1	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	9.6	3.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -55,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	34.1	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	21.9	7.7
– Net Position:	-55,941	54,281	1,660
– Gross Longs:	132,148	152,709	35,998
– Gross Shorts:	188,089	98,428	34,338
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	64.4	65.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.3	-16.3	-1.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

01 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (15,949 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (8,475 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (7,187 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (1,950 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (1,156 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-11,438 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,051 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nikkei 225 & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nikkei 225 (81 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (79 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (73 percent) and S&P500-Mini (71 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the VIX (34 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (33.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (44.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (71.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (70.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (65.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (63.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (79.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (54.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (67.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (61.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (81.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (72.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (75.5 percent)

Nikkei 225 & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (25 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (24 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (23 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-14 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-38.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (-24.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-0.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (4.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-6.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (23.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-13.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-13.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-18.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (25.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (13.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (23.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (25.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -69,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	49.2	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.9	31.7	7.2
– Net Position:	-69,103	68,093	1,010
– Gross Longs:	86,226	191,773	28,991
– Gross Shorts:	155,329	123,680	27,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	65.9	82.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.4	34.0	10.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	70.0	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	75.1	7.0
– Net Position:	-32,779	-107,803	140,582
– Gross Longs:	300,949	1,489,757	288,516
– Gross Shorts:	333,728	1,597,560	147,934
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.4	18.8	93.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-3.3	9.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	61.0	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	70.0	13.0
– Net Position:	2,877	-7,270	4,393
– Gross Longs:	14,179	49,676	14,949
– Gross Shorts:	11,302	56,946	10,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.0	27.7	80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	5.9	-13.7

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,777 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	53.0	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	67.8	10.1
– Net Position:	25,777	-42,316	16,539
– Gross Longs:	83,882	151,632	45,463
– Gross Shorts:	58,105	193,948	28,924
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	8.1	86.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.6	-19.6	5.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	75.1	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	73.0	4.8
– Net Position:	-21,331	8,625	12,706
– Gross Longs:	51,610	317,140	33,096
– Gross Shorts:	72,941	308,515	20,390
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	29.2	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	14.8	-10.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,950 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	67.8	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	63.1	25.9
– Net Position:	119	569	-688
– Gross Longs:	1,444	8,165	2,430
– Gross Shorts:	1,325	7,596	3,118
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.2	30.4	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.0	-14.4	-16.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -9,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	85.4	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	84.3	1.6
– Net Position:	-9,907	4,946	4,961
– Gross Longs:	51,405	376,321	11,891
– Gross Shorts:	61,312	371,375	6,930
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.8	32.2	41.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.0	-22.8	9.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

28 Feb

Bitcoin has fallen toward the $80,000 mark. Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting March 4

By JustMarkets

On Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.45%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) closed down 1.59%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.75%. The broad market also came under pressure after President Trump announced that the proposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect on March 4, while China will be hit with an additional 10% tariffs from the same date.

The US GDP for Q4 was unchanged at 2.3% (QoQ annualized). The core PCE Price Index for Q4 was revised upward to 2.7% from the previously reported 2.5%. US weekly initial jobless claims rose 22,000 to a 2.5-month high of 242,000, indicating a weaker labor market than expectations of 221,000. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on March 18-19 at 2%.

The digital assets’ selloff has deepened. Bitcoin continued its fall toward the $80,000 mark on Friday and is now about 25% below all-time highs. The fall followed a widespread sell-off in risk assets amid worries over Trump’s trade policies and growing concerns about the state of the US economy. In addition, continued uncertainty over the Trump administration’s policy regarding digital assets has pressured the market. The $1.5 billion hack of the ByBit exchange also highlighted the significant risks facing the industry.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.07%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.51%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.46%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.28%.

WTI crude oil prices fell below the $70 a barrel mark on Friday, reaching their biggest monthly decline since September, as US economic woes and broader market uncertainty weighed on the outlook for energy demand. Hopes for progress on a peace deal in Ukraine also pressured prices, as a settlement could lead to the lifting of Russian sanctions and increased oil exports.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.30%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.81%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.29% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.33%.

The offshore yuan maintained its fall around 7.29 per dollar, driven by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The tariffs will take effect on March 4, 2025, and are expected to put significant pressure on China’s export-driven economy, which remains heavily reliant on free trade. Meanwhile, investors are eagerly awaiting fiscal stimulus measures from China’s “Two Sessions” next week. The annual parliamentary meeting is expected to outline a policy agenda to revive economic growth, with a key focus on restoring domestic confidence, addressing economic pressures, and overcoming the developing trade war and technology rivalry with the US.

The Australian dollar slipped to $0.623 on Friday and was down more than 2% for the week as US President Donald Trump’s escalating tariffs heightened fears of a global trade war, weighing on export-oriented economies and their currencies. Australia’s economy, which relies heavily on exports to China, is particularly vulnerable to policies that could dampen Chinese demand.

In February, the Indonesian rupiah hit a five-year low of around 16,500 per US dollar amid a general weakening of Asian currencies. The US President Trump said his proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada would take effect on March 4, while an additional 10% tariff on China would be imposed on the same day, which strengthened the US dollar. Also weighing on the rupiah was Indonesia’s persistent current account deficit, which remained negative for the 7th consecutive quarter at the end of 2024.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,861.57 −94.49 (−1.59%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,239.50 −193.62 (−0.45%)

DAX (DE40) 22,550.89 −243.22 (−1.07%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,756.21 +24.75 (+0.28%)

USD Index 107.29 +0.88 (+0.83%)

News feed for: 2025.02.28

Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

28 Feb

Week Ahead: Can US500 index hold on to post-election gains?

By ForexTime

US500 now merely 1.4% higher since November US elections
US500 dragged down by poor US data, tariff threats, subdued Nvidia earnings
Coming up: Trump speech, tariff deadline, NFP report, Powell speech could dictate US500’s fortunes
Key levels: 6,000 to the upside; 200-day SMA to the downside; technical rebound possible
Wall Street’s 12-month S&P 500 target price: 6874 – about 17% higher from current levels

A lot can happen in just one week in global financial markets.

(which is why you must regularly stay up to date with our Week Ahead articles, published every Friday)

Just last week, on February 19th, the US500 index posted an all-time intraday high of 6151.3.

Since then, it has tumbled about 4.4%, and completely wiped out all of the gains it had built up so far in 2025.

NOTE: FXTM’s US500 index tracks the S&P 500 – the benchmark index measuring the overall performance of the US stock market.

Why have US stocks fallen?

Two words: risk aversion.

Risk aversion simply means that investors and traders are selling off riskier assets, such as US stocks and cryptos, as they grow fearful about future risks.

QUICK RECAP: Here are 3 key events that fuelled the recent bout of risk aversion:

1) Feb 21st: US stocks finally took heed of worsening economic data.

Recall last Friday, the US services purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.7.

When the PMI number comes in below 50, it means a contraction for that sector.

Note also that the services sector is a bigger driver of the world’s largest economy, as opposed to manufacturing.

Hence, that surprise worsening in the US services sector triggered a 1.7% drop on February 21st – the S&P 500’s biggest one-day drop so far in 2025.

2) President Trump’s tariffs threats

Also, recent days have seen President Donald Trump continue banging on his trade war drums.

Markets fear that heightened trade tariffs, if imposed against China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico, could actually hurt the US economy more.

In short, markets sold off from riskier assets first, not sticking around to to find out the full extent of the economic impact, or even if the tariffs would actually be imposed.

3) Feb 26th: Nvidia’s not-spectacular earnings

Nvidia is the second-biggest of the 500 or so companies contained within the S&P 500 stock index (Apple is the largest).

To be certain, after US markets closed last Wednesday, Nvidia still announced better-than-expected sales and profits for the 3 months ending January 26th, 2025.

The AI champion also was bullish about its earnings for this ongoing quarter (3 months through April 30th).

However, that wasn’t enough to satiate the appetites of investors who had been spoiled by blockbuster earnings in recent years.

Hence, Nvidia’s stocks fell 8.5% when US markets reopened yesterday (Thursday, Feb 27th) – its biggest one-day drop since January 27th – at the height of the DeepSeek-inspired rout.

And given Nvidia’s size and influence on the US500, the former’s steep drop in turn also dragged the latter lower.

With all the above-listed “scars” still fresh in recent memory, investors and traders will be pondering …

Is the US500 susceptible to even more declines in the new month?

US stock markets will have plenty to contend with over the coming week:

Monday, March 3

AUD: February Melbourne Institute Inflation
CN50 index: China February manufacturing PMI
GER40 index: Eurozone February CPI
Global February PMIs (final)
US30 index: US February ISM manufacturing; speech by St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem

Tuesday, March 4

JPY: Japan January jobless rate
AU200 index: RBA meeting minutes; January retail sales
EU50 index: Eurozone January unemployment
US500 index: President Trump’s speech before Congress
US tariffs set to be imposed on China, Canada, Mexico

Wednesday, March 5

AUD: Australia 4Q GDP
CNH: China February services, composite PMIs
CHINAH index: China 2025 growth target report
SG20 index: Singapore February PMI; January retail sales
RUS2000 index: Fed Beige Book; US February ISM services index; January factory orders

Thursday, March 6

AUD: Australia January trade balance
EUR: ECB rate decision; Eurozone January retail sales
RUS2000 index: US initial weekly jobless claims; 4Q GDP (second est.)
USDInd: Speeches by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

Friday, March 7

CNH: China February trade balance
TWN index: Taiwan February trade balance, CPI
GER40 index: Germany January factory orders; Eurozone 4Q GDP, employment (final)
US500 index: US February nonfarm payrolls
USDInd: Speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
CAD: Canada February employment

Here, we highlight specific events that could trigger massive reactions in the US500 index:

Tuesday, March 4th: President Trump’s speech before Congress; and fresh US tariffs?

As mentioned earlier, more trade war rhetoric out of POTUS, coupled with the actual imposition of trade tariffs, could trigger another leg down for riskier assets, including the US500 index.

Friday, March 7th: US jobs report; speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell

The monthly nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report is a major event for global financial markets, as US consumers are the main growth driver of the world’s largest economy.

The more jobs that Americans have, the more money they have to spend and keep growing the US economy.

Here’s what economists are forecasting for the upcoming February NFP report:

Headline NFP number: 158,000 new jobs added last month
(if so, that would be higher than January’s 143,000 headline NFP number)
Unemployment rate: 4%
(if so, that would be match than January’s 4.0% figure – the lowest since May 2024)
Average hourly earnings growth (month-on-month): 0.3% higher than January 2025
(if so, that would be lower than January’s 0.5% month-on-month figure – Jan 2025 vs. Dec 2024)
Average hourly earnings growth (year-on-year): 4.2% higher than February 2024
(if so, that would be higher than January’s 4.1% year-on-year figure – Jan 2025 vs. Jan 2024)

After the NFP’s release, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to make a speech.

If a weaker-than-expected US jobs report prompts the Fed Chair to hint at a sooner-than-later US rate cut, that could help the US500 rebound.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

The US500 could tumble towards its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), if Trump’s speech and tariffs trigger more risk aversion, along with an unexpected weakness in the US jobs market.
However, further signs of economic weakness may also prompt the Federal Reserve – the US central bank – to move forward its next rate cut to May 2025.

The US500 could stage a recovery back towards the 6,000 mark, if Trump’s speech doesn’t produce any negative shockers, and if more trade tariffs are delayed yet again.
A “goldilocks” US jobs print (resilient hiring and subdued wage growth) could help risk sentiment recover too, although potentially forcing the Fed to delay its intended rate cuts further out into the year.

From a technical perspective …

Referring to the chart above, recent declines have pushed the US500 index’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) to its lowest levels since early-August 2024.

If the RSI falls below the 30 line, which is the textbook threshold for “oversold” conditions, that could prompt a technical rebound.

Note that, the last time the 14-day RSI were at these low-30 levels, the S&P 500 duly rebounded.

The US500 then went on to climb as much as 20% (using intraday prices) over the next 6 months to reach its latest record high (6151.3 intraday high on February 29th, 2025).

Of course, the fundamental backdrop is very much different this time around, with the prospects of a global trade war looming.

It would require a meaningful dilution of market fears before US stock indexes can stage a sustained recovery.

Over the longer-term …

Wall Street analysts and experts still predict that the S&P 500 would hit 6874 – which would be about 17% higher than current levels – by February 2026.

But as we said at the very top of this article, a week is a long time in markets, what more 12 months out.

Still, the days ahead may yet produce massive trading opportunities to be taken advantage of, provided market participants remain alert and can react fast.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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