Opinions

Archive for Opinions – Page 3

20 Dec

Week Ahead: US500 “Santa Rally” still in play?

By ForexTime

US500 ↑ 23% year-to-date

December: Produced returns 70% of time since 1995

Gained on average 1% in December over past 30 years

Prices bearish on D1 but RSI oversold

Technical levels: 21-Day SMA,5900 & 100-day SMA

FXTM’s US500, which tracks the benchmark S&P 500 index is on track for its worst trading week since September.

But bulls could make a return if the “Santa Claus rally” kicks off in the week ahead:

Saturday, 21st December

Deadline for avoiding partial US government shutdown
CN50: China’s National People’s Congress standing committee

Monday, 23rd December

SG20: Singapore CPI
TWN: Taiwan industrial production, jobless rate
GBP: UK GDP (final)
USDInd: US Conference Board consumer confidence

Tuesday, 24th December

AU200: RBA meeting minutes
JP225: BoJ meeting minutes

Wednesday, 25th December

Stock markets closed – Christmas Day

Thursday, 26th December

Boxing Day Holiday
SG20: Singapore industrial production
US500: US initial jobless claims

Friday, 27th December

JP225: Japan Tokyo CPI, unemployment, industrial production, retail sales

The lowdown…

US equities tumbled on Wednesday following the Fed’s hawkish pivot.

Interest rates were cut as widely expected but the Fed signalled a slower pace of easing in 2025.

Traders are now only pricing in a 54% probability of a 25 basis point Fed cut by March 2025 with this jumping to 75% by May 2025.

This sent the US500 tumbling 3%, dragging prices below 5900 for the first time since mid-November.

US5001

US equity bears are back in the scene with the threat of a potential partial US government shutdown weighing on sentiment.

The question is whether the latest developments have reduced the chance of a Santa rally?

What is the Santa rally?

This financial phenomenon is where stocks generally gain in the last week of December and the first two trading days of the new year.

It’s unclear whether this is fueled by psychology or triggered by underlying financial forces.

Nevertheless, history has shown that this is a recurring seasonal pattern.

Indeed, December has been a historically positive month for the S&P500 which has produced positive returns 70% of the time since 1995.

On average, over the past 30 years the S&P 500 has delivered returns of 1% in December.

The bigger picture…

The US500 is up 23% year-to-date – its second straight year of returns above 20%.

It has notched 57 record highs thanks to the AI mania, Fed rate cuts and Trump’s election win.

A Santa Clause rally could push prices back toward the psychological 6000 level, paving a path back to 6100 and higher.

Technical forces

The sharp selloff last Wednesday has placed bears in a position of power. Prices are trading below the 21 and 50-day SMA but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near oversold levels.

Sustained weakness below 5900 may encourage a decline toward the 100-day SMA and 5700.

A move back above 5900 could trigger an incline toward 21-day SMA and 6100.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

19 Dec

The US Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% but signaled a more hawkish approach next year.

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 2.58%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 2.95%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 3.60%. The US stocks fell on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps but signaled fewer cuts than previous estimates for next year, triggering a market sell-off. A widely expected Fed rate cut to the target range of 4.25%–4.5% was overshadowed by an estimate that the rate would be cut by just two points in 2025, down from the four previously expected, dampening investor sentiment. As the Central Bank lowered its unemployment prognosis and raised expectations for core inflation and economic growth, Treasury yields rose sharply, putting additional pressure on stock prices. The odds of pausing rate cuts in January rose to 88%, up from 80% before the FOMC decision. The US dollar strengthened, with the biggest gains against the Australian dollar, euro, British pound, and yen.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) was down 0.02%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.26%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.26%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.05%. The Eurozone’s annualized inflation rate for November 2024 rose to 2.2% from 2% in October but below the 2.3% preliminary estimate. The increase towards the end of the year was expected mainly due to base effects, as last year’s sharp decline in energy prices is no longer factored into the annualized rate. Annual core inflation was confirmed at 2.7%, which aligns with the forward data. The UK’s annual core inflation rate rose to 3.5% in November 2024, up from 3.3% in the previous month, the highest since August. However, the figure was slightly below market estimates of 3.6%. The annualized services CPI remained unchanged at 5.0%.

In the oil market, data from the EIA showed that US crude oil inventories fell by nearly 1 million barrels in the second week of December, extending a 1.4 million barrel decline from the previous week. In addition, according to the same report, the US oil exports rose to 1.8 million barrels, the highest since July. In turn, other reports indicated that Kazakhstan intends to honor the lengthy oil production cuts mandated by OPEC+ for next year, abandoning previous signals that it would increase output to an initial level of 190,000 barrels per day. This added to the signal that other members of the organization, notably the UAE, were sticking to extending the production cuts.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) lost 0.72%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 1.06%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.83%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.06%.

New Zealand’s economy contracted by 1% in September 2024, which was worse than the 0.4% contraction expected by the market. This is the second consecutive quarter of contraction and the sharpest contraction since September 2021. On an annualized basis, GDP fell by 1.5% after 0.5% contraction in the second quarter. The New Zealand dollar hit a two-year low on the back of this data, as well as a rise in the Dollar Index.

The Australian dollar fell to its lowest level in more than two years, after a hawkish rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, which strengthened the dollar. Further pressure came from weak economic data from China and the risk of renewed US tariffs under a possible Trump administration, given Australia’s close trade ties with China. Domestically, concerns over slowing economic activity persist, with Australian Consumer Confidence declining and markets raising expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) first rate cut amid growing signs of economic weakness.

Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark interest rate at 6% at its December 2024 meeting, in line with market expectations. The decision reflects the Central Bank’s desire to keep inflation under control within the target range of 2.5%, plus-minus 1%, for 2024 and 2025, as well as stabilize the rupiah exchange rate amid heightened global uncertainty. Indonesia’s annual inflation rate fell to 1.55% in November 2024 from 1.71% in the previous month, the lowest since July 2021, and remained within the target range.

The Bank of Thailand kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25% at its final meeting in 2024 after an unexpected 25 bps cut in October, as expected. The decision was made against the backdrop of accelerating inflation and GDP growth and maintaining long-term macro-financial stability. Inflation remained below the Central Bank’s target for most of this year, but rose to a six-month high of 0.95% in November, nearing the lower end of the 1–3% target range.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,872.16 −178.45 (−2.95%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,326.87 −1,123.03 (−2.58%)

DAX (DE40) 20,242.57 −3.80 (−0.02%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,199.11 +3.91 (+0.05%)

USD Index 108.25 +1.30 (+1.21%)

News feed for: 2024.12.19

Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+2);
Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+2);
Japan BoJ Press Conference at 06:30 (GMT+2);
German GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
Norway Norges Bank Rate Decision (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2);
UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement at 14:00 (GMT+2);
US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
New Zealand Trade Balance (m/m) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

19 Dec

When AI goes shopping: AI agents promise to lighten your purchasing load − if they can earn your trust

By Tamilla Triantoro, Quinnipiac University

Online shopping often involves endless options and fleeting discounts. A single search for running shoes can yield hundreds of results across multiple platforms, each promising the “best deal.” The holiday season brings excitement, but it also brings a blend of decision fatigue and logistical nightmares.

What if there were a tool capable of hunting for the best prices, navigating endless sales and making sure your purchases arrive on time?

The next evolution in artificial intelligence is AI agents that are capable of autonomous reasoning and multistep problem-solving. AI shopping agents not only suggest what you might like, but they can also act on your behalf. Major retailers and AI companies are developing AI shopping assistants, and the AI company Perplexity released Buy with Pro on Nov. 18, 2024.

Picture this: You prompt AI to find a winter coat under $200 that’s highly rated and will arrive by Sunday. In seconds, it scans websites, compares prices, checks reviews, confirms availability and places the order, all while you go about your day.

image of a webpage showing two small photos of women's coats — Perpelexity’s recently released AI shopping agent can search for items across the web using multiple free-form variables sucgh as color, size, price and shipping time.
Screenshot by Tamilla Triantoro

Unlike traditional recommendation engines, AI agents learn your preferences and handle tasks autonomously. The agents are built with machine learning and natural language processing. They learn from their interactions with the people using them and become smarter and more efficient over time from their collective interactions.

Looking ahead, AI agents are likely to not only master personal shopping needs but also negotiate directly with corporate AI systems. They will not only learn your preferences but will likely be able to book tailored experiences, handle payments across platforms and coordinate schedules.

As a researcher who studies human-AI collaboration, I see how AI agents could make the future of shopping virtually effortless and more personalized than ever.

How AI agents help shoppers

Marketplaces such as Amazon and Walmart have been using AI to automate shopping. Google Lens offers a visual search tool for finding products.

Perplexity’s Buy with Pro is a more powerful AI shopping agent. By providing your shipping and billing information, you can place orders directly on the Perplexity app with free shipping on every order. The shopping assistant is part of the company’s Perplexity Pro service, which has free and paid tiers.

For those looking to build custom AI shopping agents, AutoGPT and AgentGPT are open-source tools for configuring and deploying AI agents.

Consumers today are focused on value, looking for deals and comparing prices across platforms. Having an assistant perform these tasks could be a tremendous time saver. But can AI truly learn your preferences?

A recent study using the GPT-4o model achieved 85% accuracy in imitating the thoughts and behaviors of over 1,000 people after they interacted with the AI for just two hours. This breakthrough finding suggests that digital personas can understand and act on people’s preferences in ways that will transform the shopping experience.

How AI shopping reshapes business

AI agents are moving beyond recommendations to autonomously executing complex tasks such as automating refunds, managing inventory and approving pricing decisions. This evolution has already begun to reshape how businesses operate and how consumers interact with them.

Retailers using AI agents are seeing measurable benefits. Since October 2024, data from the Salesforce shopping index reveals that digital retailers using generative AI achieved a 7% increase in average order revenue and attributed 17% of global orders to AI-driven personalized recommendations, targeted promotions and improved customer service.

Meanwhile, the nature of search and advertising is undergoing a major shift. Amazon is capturing billions of dollars in ad revenue as shoppers bypass Google to search directly on its platform. Simultaneously, AI-powered search tools such as Perplexity and OpenAI’s web-enabled chat deliver instant, context-aware responses, challenging traditional search engines and forcing advertisers to rethink their strategies.

The outcome of the battle between Big Tech and open-source initiatives to shape the AI ecosystem is also likely to affect how the shopping experience changes.

image of a webpage showing two small photos of insulated travel mugs — Shoppers can have back-and-forth interactions with AI agents.
Screenshot by Tamilla Triantoro

The risks: Privacy, manipulation and dependency

While AI agents offer significant benefits, they also raise critical privacy concerns. AI systems require extensive access to personal data, shopping history and financial information. This level of access increases the risk of misuse and unauthorized sharing.

Manipulation is another issue. AI can be highly persuasive and may be optimized to serve corporate interests over consumer welfare. Such technology can prioritize upselling or nudging shoppers toward higher-margin products under the guise of personalization.

There’s also the risk of dependency. Automating many aspects of shopping could diminish the satisfaction of making choices. Research in human-AI interaction indicates that while AI tools can reduce cognitive load, increased reliance on AI could impair people’s ability to critically evaluate their options.

What’s next?

AI-based shopping is still in its infancy, so how much trust should you place in it?

In our book “Converging Minds,” AI researcher Aleksandra Przegalinska and I argue for a balanced and critical approach to AI adoption, recognizing both its potential and its pitfalls.

As cognitive scientist Gary Marcus points out, AI’s moral limitations stem from technical constraints: Despite efforts to prevent errors, these systems remain imperfect.

This cautious perspective is reflected in the responses from my MBA class. When I asked students whether they were ready to outsource their holiday shopping to AI, the answer was an overwhelming no. Ethan Mollick, a professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, has argued that the adoption of AI in everyday life will be gradual, as societal change typically lags behind technological advancement.

Before people are willing to hand over their credit cards and let AI take the reins, businesses will have to ensure that AI systems align with human values and priorities. The promise of AI is vast, but to fulfill that promise I believe that AI will need to be an extension of human intention – not a replacement for it.

About the Author:

Tamilla Triantoro, Associate Professor of Business Analytics and Information Systems, Quinnipiac University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

18 Dec

What’s next for Albertsons after calling off its $25B grocery merger with Kroger: More lawsuits

By Christine P. Bartholomew, University at Buffalo

Albertsons announced on Dec. 11, 2024, that it had called off an attempted merger with Kroger and would sue Kroger for breach of contract. The US$25 billion deal, first announced in 2022, would have combined Cincinnati-based Kroger, already the largest traditional U.S. supermarket chain, with Boise, Idaho-based Albertsons, which is currently the third-biggest grocer.

The Conversation U.S. asked Christine P. Bartholomew, a professor at the University at Buffalo School of Law who researches consumer protection, to explain how the merger failed and why it matters.

Which supermarkets belong to the two companies?

Kroger has 28 subsidiaries with nearly 2,800 supermarkets, including Harris Teeter, Dillon’s, Smith’s, King Soopers, Fry’s, City Market, Owen’s, JayC, Pay Less, Baker’s Gerbes, Pick‘n Save, Metro Market, Mariano’s Fresh Market, QFC, Ralphs and Fred Meyer.

Albertsons owns and operates more than 2,200 supermarkets through its many brands. They include Safeway, Vons, Jewel-Osco, Shaw’s, Acme, Tom Thumb, Randalls, United Supermarkets, Pavilions, Star Market, Haggen, Carrs, Kings Food Market and Balducci’s.

Kroger and Albertsons also operate supermarkets branded with their own names.

Had the merger gone forward, it would have been the largest of its kind in U.S. history, affecting millions of grocery shoppers.

To ward off regulators’ concerns, prior to canceling the transaction, the chains announced in 2023 a plan to sell hundreds of their supermarkets across the United States to C&S Wholesale Grocers. They updated this plan in 2024, pledging to not close any stores.

Why did Kroger want to acquire Albertsons?

The companies argued that they needed to join forces to compete against even bigger online and big box retailers. In recent years, Walmart and Costco have gained market share, while other chains have held steady or lost ground.

The companies also feared stiff competition from dollar stores, one of the fastest-growing segments of U.S. retail.

The federal government opposed the merger, with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission suing to block it. Had the deal gone through, the new company would have cemented its position, ensuring it has the largest market share for grocery purchases after Walmart.

What happened in court?

In February 2024, the FTC, along with state attorneys general representing consumers in eight states – Arizona, California, Illinois, Maryland, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon and Wyoming – filed a federal lawsuit in Oregon to block the merger. So did the District of Columbia’s attorney general.

This wasn’t the only legal challenge the merger faced. The Washington and Colorado attorneys general both filed suit in their own states to block the merger.

After hearings in both cases and months of uncertainty, the judges in both Oregon and Washington issued their rulings.

U.S. District Court Judge Adrienne Nelson, in Portland, Oregon, on Dec. 10, which blocked the merger pending the outcome of the administrative proceedings before the FTC.

A few hours later, Judge Marshall Ferguson in Seattle issued a permanent injunction barring the merger in Washington state only. Both judges determined that the merger risked significantly reducing competition and that the companies didn’t offer enough evidence that the merger would help consumers.

“We’re standing up to mega-monopolies to keep prices down,” Ferguson said. He called the injunction “an important victory for affordability, worker protections and the rule of law.”

Albertsons and Kroger’s plan to offload stores to C&S didn’t impress the judges. Not only did Nelson find the divestiture insufficient in scale, but she ruled it was “structured in a way that will significantly disadvantage C&S as a competitor.”

Albertsons v. Kroger

The morning after the Washington and Oregon decisions were issued, the deal was dead.

Albertsons announced it terminated the merger agreement, citing the court decisions.

Both companies still face significant legal challenges, though. Five minutes after announcing its intent to back out of the deal, Albertsons issued a second press release announcing it had filed a lawsuit against Kroger.

Albertsons said Kroger willfully breached the deal “by repeatedly refusing to divest assets necessary for antitrust approval, ignoring regulators’ feedback, rejecting stronger divestiture buyers and failing to cooperate with Albertsons.” The suit seeks significant damages, including “billions of dollars” for lost shareholder value and legal costs, as well as a $600 million merger breakup fee.

In response, Kroger said that “Albertsons’ claims are baseless and without merit.”

Albertsons’ suit against Kroger is pending in Delaware Court of Chancery, which hears many legal business disputes. The complaint remains temporarily under seal.

This article includes passages that appeared in an article about the proposed merger that was published on Feb. 28, 2024.

About the Author:

Christine P. Bartholomew, Professor of Law, University at Buffalo

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Stock Market News

18 Dec

Sweden is a nearly cashless society – here’s how it affects people who are left out

By Moa Petersén, Lund University and Lena Halldenius, Lund University

Around the world, cards and apps are the default way to pay – but nowhere is the transition away from cash more obvious than in Sweden. The Bank of Sweden notes that the amount of cash in circulation in the country has halved since 2007.

Part of this is due to a unique Swedish law that prioritises “freedom of contract” above any legal requirement to accept cash. In other words, it is up to businesses – including banks – whether they take cash. Public transport, stores and services typically do not accept cash as payment, and there is no infrastructure for paying bills over the counter.

The transition to cashlessness accelerated when a group of banks created the mobile payment app Swish in 2012. By 2017, Sweden was using less cash than other European countries. Today, more than 80% of the population has a Swish account.

For most Swedes, the cashless economy is swift and convenient. As long as you have a bank account and can access the technology, you probably live a cashless life already. But for the few people who still depend on cash, life is getting harder.

Our recent research how this affects the worst-off groups in Sweden’s cashless society. Our interviewees live in poverty-induced cash dependence, meaning they rely on cash payments because they are unbanked, lack credit or cannot afford digital technology.

While it is difficult to measure just how many people depend on cash, older people, particularly, are struggling to pay bills digitally.

Some of those we interviewed are homeless or have mental health issues. Others live on a very low income. The obstacles they face are both practical and cultural. They feel like delinquents, undervalued and locked out of participating in much of daily life.

Being cash-dependent in Sweden

If cash is the only money you have or the only money you can manage without help, you are confined to “cash bubbles”. Cash works like a local currency, isolated from the rest of the economy.

In the cash bubble, you can buy necessities and go to no-frills cafes, but you can’t pay for parking and you can’t pay bills without help. Volunteers at local community groups told us that they spend most of their time doing people’s banking for them.

A Ukrainian refugee, who can’t get a bank account because of their migration status, worried about a bill from the local health clinic that they had no technical means of paying.

Homeless people who sleep in cars can’t use the cashless parking meters, so an illicit market has emerged where people with smartphones and bank accounts pay for their parking at a substantial extra cost. It’s expensive to be digitally poor.

Our interviewees felt left behind in a society that does not care about their ability to participate. With a mix of shame, anger and resignation, they described everyday humiliations. One woman saved up to buy her grandchild a gift she wanted, only to be told at the till – grandchild in hand – that they didn’t accept her money. “I felt like a thief,” she told us.

Sweden’s cashless transition

Swedes are known to be early and uncritical adopters of technology – this has become part of the country’s self-image. In 2017, business researchers predicted that cash would be irrelevant in Sweden by March 2023. It didn’t quite happen, but near enough.

Over the last 150 years, technological innovations and entrepreneurship have propelled the country from severe poverty to being one of the richest in Europe.

The Swedish case is even more special due to the pervasive role of banks in the payment and identification infrastructure. Banks created the widely used payment app Swish, and also issue the electronic ID needed to access public services like the tax authority and benefits for illness, disability and unemployment.

Consequently, if you are not a bank customer, you can’t access these public services.

During the pandemic, fears of contamination made handling physical money seem like a health hazard. “I hate cash. It’s dirty,” as one Swedish tech entrepreneur put it.

All of these factors combined have led to a modern Swedish society where digital money is good and cash is associated with crime and dirt. For people who still depend on cash payments, this stigma adds to their sense of being left out.

In Sweden, as in many other countries, a fully cashless economy feels inevitable in the coming years. But as we have found, people who rely on cash due to poverty are left without the means to manage independently or even to pay their bills.

This is not just a practical issue, but an emotional one. There is a sense of loneliness, of loss of community and human connection in the digital economy. As one of our interviewees said: “It’s not just cashlessness. I feel that human beings have disappeared. We live like robots; click here, click that. Digitisation has made people lonely.”

About the Author:

Moa Petersén, Associate Professor in Digital Cultures, Lund University and Lena Halldenius, Professor of Human Rights Studies, Lund University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

17 Dec

Bitcoin “Santa Rally” coming to town?

By ForexTime

Bitcoin ↑ 152% since start of 2024

Over past year Fed triggered moves of ↑ 3.4% & ↓ 3%

Gained on average 11.30% in December over past 15 years

Technical levels – $110,000, $107,000 & $100,000

Christmas may have come early for investors after Bitcoin surpassed $107,000 for the first time.

The “OG” crypto has been on a tear, recently boosted by growing optimism over its potential role as a US strategic reserve asset.

Prices are up over 10% month-to-date, pushing 2024-year gains beyond 150%.

Bitcoin 2

Bitcoin and other cryptos remain supported by hopes of a more friendly regulatory environment under Trump. And this has attracted almost $10 billion into US exchange-traded funds since Trump’s election win on November 5th.

Another factor exciting bulls could be MicroStrategy…

MicroStrategy is the largest Bitcoin holder among publicly traded companies, accumulating 439,000 bitcoins valued at $47 billion.

The meteoric rise of Bitcoin has pushed MicroStrategy’s market cap to almost $100 billion with its shares up nearly 550% year-to-date.

Why does this matter?

MicroStrategy is set to join the Nasdaq 100 on December 23rd.

This is a major milestone for the company and crypto world given its massive exposure to Bitcoin.

Joining the Nasdaq 100 provides investors an indirect exposure to Bitcoin through investing in MicroStrategy.

In a nutshell, this is a welcome development for the crypto space and could fuel upside gains on both MicroStrategy and Bitcoin.

Bitcoin set for “Santa Rally”?

To be clear, the Santa rally is a phenomenon that happens in the stock market. This is where stock prices experience a rally in the final days of December through the first few days of January.

Historically speaking, Bitcoin has gained on average 11.30% in December over the past 15 years.

Given the positive sentiment toward cryptocurrencies, could a rally be on the horizon?

By the way…

The Fed decision on Wednesday could influence Bitcoin which has shown sensitivity to interest rates.

As discussed in the week ahead, the Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 bp.

Traders are currently pricing in a 97% probability of a 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday with the odds of another cut by March 2025 at 62%.

Over the past year, the US jobs report has triggered upside moves of as much as 3.4% or declines of 3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Beyond the Fed decision, the revised US GDP and PCE report among other data could influence prices.

It’s not only Bitcoin that may experience big moves on Wednesday 18th December.

DOGECOIN: ↑ 7.5 % or ↓ 4.1%

AVALANCH: ↑ 6.0 % or ↓ 4.0%

BITCOINC: ↑ 5.5 % or ↓ 3.0%

CARDANO: ↑ 5.3% or ↓ 2.7%

CHAINLINK: ↑ 4.7 % or ↓ 2.4%

POLYGON: ↑ 4.0% or ↓ 3.0%

ETHEREUM: ↑ 3.9% or ↓ 2.4%

RIPPLE: ↑ 2.9% or ↓ 2.0%

LITECOIN: ↑ 2.8 % or ↓ 1.9%

All cryptos listed above are offered by FXTM as Crypto CFD’s.

Technical outlook…

Bitcoin is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe. Prices are trading above the 21, 50, 100 and 200-day SMA however the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered overbought territory.

A solid daily close above $107,000 could push prices to fresh all-time highs at $110,000 and beyond.

Should prices slip below $105,000, this may encourage a selloff toward the psychological $100.000 level.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Opinions

15 Dec

Currency Speculators push New Zealand Dollar bets to lowest level since 2019

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 10th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (23,418 contracts) with the British Pound (7,799 contracts), the Swiss Franc (6,102 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,744 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,021 contracts) and Bitcoin (875 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-22,208 contracts), the EuroFX (-18,084 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-12,916 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-4,899 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-170 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators push New Zealand Dollar bets to lowest level since 2019

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the recent large drop in the speculator’s positioning for the New Zealand ‘Kiwi’ Dollar.

Large speculative New Zealand Dollar (NZD) currency positions fell this week by almost -5,000 net contracts and the NZD net positions have now declined in nine out of the past ten weeks. This ten-week drop totals -30,177 contracts and has taken the NZD from a positive net position of +1,970 contracts on October 1st to this week’s net position of +28,207 contracts.

This shortfall in positions has knocked the NZD down to the most bearish level in the past two hundred and sixty-three weeks, dating back to November 26th of 2019. Our strength indicator, which measures a market’s speculator level compared to it’s past three years, shows the NZD at a 0 percent strength score or at a bottom for the past three year’s range.

Nudging the NZD speculator sentiment lower has been recent cuts in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and economic weakness. The RBNZ dropped its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in November to 4.25 percent as the bank stated, “Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased.” The RBNZ also reduced the interest rate by 50 basis points in October and by 25 basis points in August. This lowering of interest rates can hurt a currency because lower interest rates can spur traders to sell the currency to find other countries (currencies) with higher interest rates. The higher interest rate will provide a higher interest return and, in turn, if enough traders join in, can help spur the higher interest currency higher as well on a capital gains basis.

The NZD exchange rate versus the US Dollar has been on the decline in tandem with the fall in speculator bets over these past three months. The NZDUSD closed at a multi-year low of 0.5762 this week which marked the lowest level since October of 2022. The NZD had been as high as 0.6385 in September but the rate cuts and economic outlook has pushed the Kiwi lower in ten out of the past eleven weekly closes for an approximate decline by 10 percent versus the US Dollar.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (84 percent) and the Australian Dollar (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (0 percent), the EuroFX (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (0 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.4 percent)
EuroFX (0.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (44.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (83.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (74.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (17.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (82.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (32.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (30.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (36.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (35.6 percent)
Bitcoin (35.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.5 percent)

Bitcoin & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (25 percent) and the Japanese Yen (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends and are the only positive movers for the currencies.

The New Zealand Dollar (-44 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-18 percent), Mexican Peso (-14 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-10.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-8.2 percent)
EuroFX (-9.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-11.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-17.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-24.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (20.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-4.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-17.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-6.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-8.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-13.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-4.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-44.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-39.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-13.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-10.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-11.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-13.9 percent)
Bitcoin (25.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -170 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,054 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.1	26.9	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.9	22.2	6.8
– Net Position:	-3,224	1,940	1,284
– Gross Longs:	22,883	10,986	4,052
– Gross Shorts:	26,107	9,046	2,768
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.9	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	6.4	17.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -75,573 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	62.2	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	54.7	8.7
– Net Position:	-75,573	54,716	20,857
– Gross Longs:	157,375	452,311	84,363
– Gross Shorts:	232,948	397,595	63,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	17.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	7.9	4.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,799 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	52.3	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	59.3	10.2
– Net Position:	27,125	-21,904	-5,221
– Gross Longs:	102,763	162,912	26,568
– Gross Shorts:	75,638	184,816	31,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	52.7	51.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.6	20.8	-27.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 23,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	42.9	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	51.8	13.8
– Net Position:	25,752	-24,598	-1,154
– Gross Longs:	97,938	117,775	36,894
– Gross Shorts:	72,186	142,373	38,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.9	19.4	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.2	-19.4	5.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -34,992 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.4	81.5	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	33.7	23.9
– Net Position:	-34,992	52,309	-17,317
– Gross Longs:	4,796	89,188	8,877
– Gross Shorts:	39,788	36,879	26,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.0	84.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	17.3	-43.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -181,554 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	81.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.6	33.7	10.9
– Net Position:	-181,554	195,936	-14,382
– Gross Longs:	29,034	333,506	30,191
– Gross Shorts:	210,588	137,570	44,573
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	96.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	8.9	-20.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,916 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.1	46.8	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	47.1	14.4
– Net Position:	8,485	-735	-7,750
– Gross Longs:	88,751	111,884	26,561
– Gross Shorts:	80,266	112,619	34,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	29.5	28.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	22.1	-47.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,899 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,308 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	71.2	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.7	38.8	7.3
– Net Position:	-28,207	31,847	-3,640
– Gross Longs:	19,605	69,879	3,520
– Gross Shorts:	47,812	38,032	7,160
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	7.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.2	45.4	-28.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.4	46.7	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	50.5	3.6
– Net Position:	7,928	-6,173	-1,755
– Gross Longs:	61,643	75,013	4,073
– Gross Shorts:	53,715	81,186	5,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.8	71.0	13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	13.0	9.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.4	48.0	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.6	23.7	4.3
– Net Position:	-16,393	17,176	-783
– Gross Longs:	32,187	33,982	2,279
– Gross Shorts:	48,580	16,806	3,062
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	65.3	16.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	12.0	-3.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.9	4.6	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.8	4.0	3.0
– Net Position:	-720	236	484
– Gross Longs:	31,168	1,721	1,627
– Gross Shorts:	31,888	1,485	1,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	69.3	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-25.1	-10.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

15 Dec

Speculator Extremes: Lean Hogs & Nasdaq lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 10th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing once again this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 99.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 23.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 91,522 net contracts this week with a small dip of -237 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Nasdaq speculator level is now at a 94.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 47.2 this week. The speculator position registered 35,573 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 5,882 contracts in speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level resides at a 91.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 35.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -216,372 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,020 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 89.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 22.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 102,701 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,657 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level sits at a 86.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.1 this week.

The speculator position was 62,074 net contracts this week with a decrease by -4,653 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -32,954 net contracts this week with a drop of -10,675 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -44.2 this week. The speculator position was -28,207 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -4,899 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Euro speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -75,573 net contracts this week with a decrease by -18,084 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.2 this week. The speculator position was -3,224 net contracts this week with a dip of -170 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

Finally, the Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 6.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.3 this week. The speculator position was -181,554 net contracts this week with a decrease of -22,208 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

05 Dec

5 Medium Cap Companies that made our Quarterly Watchlist

By InvestMacro Research

The fourth quarter of 2024 is more than two-thirds through and most companies have released their third-quarter results. Today, we wanted to highlight some of the top Medium Cap companies that have been added to our Cosmic Rays Watchlist. The Cosmic Rays Watchlist is the output from our proprietary fundamental analysis algorithm.

The algo examines company fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall sector strength trends. The aim is identify quality dividend-paying companies on the NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges. If a company scores over 50, it gets added to our Watchlist for further analysis.

We use this system as a stock market ideas generator and to update our Watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the fundamental system does not take the stock price as a direct element in our rating so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices (this is not a timing tool).

Disclaimer: The US stock markets continue to reach new all-time highs and this should always factor into the decision-making of buying any asset. Many major studies are consistently showing overvalued markets at the current time.

As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. A stock added to our list is not a recommendation to buy or sell the security.

Here we go with 5 of our Top Medium Cap Stocks scored in Q3 2024:

Virtu Financial, Inc.
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
CONMED Corporation
Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc.
InterDigital, Inc.

Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT): Financial Services

Technically, Virtu is trading at its highest level since 2022 and has an overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly time-frame.

Virtu Financial, Inc. (Symbol: VIRT) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. VIRT scored a 60 in our fundamental rating system on October 25th.

At time of writing, only 4.74% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,674 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 36 system points from our last update. VIRT is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Financial Services sector. The industry focus for VIRT is Financial – Capital Markets.

Virtu has beat earnings expectations three quarters in a row, has a dividend of approximately 2.55 percent and a payout ratio of around 60 percent. The VIRT stock price has handily beat the Financial Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks — which also warrants a word of caution because the year-to-date price gain is steep at over 80 percent.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Virtu Financial, Inc., a financial services company, provides data, analytics, and connectivity products to clients worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Market Making and Execution Services. Its product suite includes offerings in execution, liquidity sourcing, analytics and broker-neutral, and multi-dealer platforms in workflow technology.

Company Website: https://www.virtu.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return *Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT) 18.5 105.63 0.37
– Benchmark Symbol: XLF 22.9 38.93 1.0

* Data through December 02, 2024

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX): Industrials

LPX is currently trading at its all-time highs near $120.00 per share and has an overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly time-frame.

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (Symbol: LPX) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. LPX scored a 62 in our fundamental rating system on November 6th.

At time of writing, only 4.74% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,674 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 72 system points from our last update. LPX is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Industrials sector. The industry focus for LPX is Construction.

Louisiana-Pacific has beat earnings expectations four straight quarters and has a dividend of close to 0.88 percent with a payout ratio of 64 percent. The LPX stock price has also significantly surpassed the Industrials Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks and is up close to 70 percent year-to-date.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets building products primarily for use in new home construction, repair and remodeling, and outdoor structure markets. It operates through four segments: Siding; Oriented Strand Board (OSB); Engineered Wood Products (EWP); and South America.

Company Website: https://www.lpcorp.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return *Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) 20.6 84.18 1.88
– Benchmark Symbol: XLI 30.4 30.77 1.1

* Data through December 02, 2024

CONMED Corporation (CNMD): Healthcare

CNMD is trading around the $73.00 threshold currently and is significantly down from the $160.00 highs in 2022. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at just over the 50 level on the weekly time-frame.

CONMED Corporation (Symbol: CNMD) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. CNMD scored a 56 in our fundamental rating system on October 31st.

At time of writing, only 8.17% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 10,674 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 14 system points from our last update. CNMD is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for CNMD is Medical – Devices.

CONMED has beat earnings expectations three consecutive quarters and has a dividend of close to 1.08 percent with a payout ratio near 43 percent. The CNMD stock price has under-performed the Healthcare Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks by a large margin and is actually down by -33.86 percent year-to-date.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

CONMED Corporation, a medical technology company, develops, manufactures, and sells surgical devices and related equipment for surgical procedures worldwide.

Company Website: https://www.conmed.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return *Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: CONMED Corporation (CNMD) 17.2 -32.23 1.46
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV 24.6 11.65 0.7

* Data through December 02, 2024

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM): Financial Services

APAM is currently in an uptrend channel right under the $50 per share level with a bullish above 60 Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly time-frame.

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (Symbol: APAM) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. APAM scored a 69 in our fundamental rating system on October 30th.

At time of writing, only 4.74% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,674 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 19 system points from our last update. APAM is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Financial Services sector. The industry focus for APAM is Asset Management.

APAM has beat earnings expectations in October after two close misses in previous quarters and has a dividend of approximately 6.7 percent with a payout ratio near 87 percent. The APAM stock price has under-performed the Financial Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks but is higher by 9.62 percent year-to-date.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. is publicly owned investment manager. It provides its services to pension and profit sharing plans, trusts, endowments, foundations, charitable organizations, government entities, private funds and non-U.S. funds, as well as mutual funds, non-U.S. funds and collective trusts. It manages separate client-focused equity and fixed income portfolios. The firm invests in the public equity and fixed income markets across the globe.

Company Website: https://www.artisanpartners.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return *Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM) 13.5 27.74 1.79
– Benchmark Symbol: XLF 22.9 38.93 1.0

* Data through December 02, 2024

InterDigital, Inc. (IDCC): Technology

IDCC is currently trading at its all-time highs and challenging the $200.00 per share level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently overbought on the weekly time-frame.

InterDigital, Inc. (Symbol: IDCC) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. IDCC scored a 67 in our fundamental rating system on November 1st.

At time of writing, only 4.74% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,674 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 5 times and stayed the same score from our last update. IDCC is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Technology sector. The industry focus for IDCC is Software – Application.

InterDigital has surpassed earnings expectations four quarters in a row and has a dividend of approximately 0.89 percent with a payout ratio of approximately 20 percent. The IDCC stock price has far surpassed the Financial Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks and is higher by almost 80 percent year-to-date.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

InterDigital, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and develops technologies that enable and enhance wireless communications in the United States, China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Europe. It provides technology solutions for use in digital cellular and wireless products and networks, including 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G, and IEEE 802-related products and networks.

Company Website: https://www.interdigital.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return *Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: InterDigital, Inc. (IDCC) 21.1 96.23 1.38
– Benchmark Symbol: XLK 45.5 31.09 1.2

* Data through December 02, 2024

By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list.

All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Stock scores are a data driven process through company fundamentals and are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Company descriptions provided by sec.gov.

Risk Disclosure: Stock Market trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Stock Market trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the stock market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with stock market trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

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03 Dec

NEOWISE, the NASA mission that cataloged objects around Earth for over a decade, has come to an end

By Toshi Hirabayashi, Georgia Institute of Technology and Yaeji Kim, University of Maryland

The NASA project NEOWISE, which has given astronomers a detailed view of near-Earth objects – some of which could strike the Earth – ended its mission and burned on reentering the atmosphere after over a decade.

On a clear night, the sky is full of bright objects – from stars, large planets and galaxies to tiny asteroids flying near Earth. These asteroids are commonly known as near-Earth objects, and they come in a wide variety of sizes. Some are tens of kilometers across or larger, while others are only tens of meters or smaller.

On occasion, near-Earth objects smash into Earth at a high speed – roughly 10 miles per second (16 kilometers per second) or faster. That’s about 15 times as fast as a rifle’s muzzle speed. An impact at that speed can easily damage the planet’s surface and anything on it.

WISE, NEOWISE’s predecessor mission, imaged the entire sky in the mid-infrared range.
NASA/JPL/Caltech/UCLA

Impacts from large near-Earth objects are generally rare over a typical human lifetime. But they’re more frequent on a geological timescale of millions to billions of years. The best example may be a 6-mile-wide (10-kilometer-wide) asteroid that crashed into Earth, killed the dinosaurs and created Chicxulub crater about 65 million years ago.

Smaller impacts are very common on Earth, as there are more small near-Earth objects. An international community effort called planetary defense protects humans from these space intruders by cataloging and monitoring as many near-Earth objects as possible, including those closely approaching Earth. Researchers call the near-Earth objects that could collide with the surface potentially hazardous objects.

NASA began its NEOWISE mission in December 2013. This mission’s primary focus was to use the space telescope from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer to closely detect and characterize near-Earth objects such as asteroids and comets.

NEOWISE contributed to planetary defense efforts with its research to catalog near-Earth objects. Over the past decade, it helped planetary defenders like us and our colleagues study near-Earth objects.

An illustration of the WISE spacecraft, which looks like a metal cylinder with a solar panel attached. — NASA’s NEOWISE mission, the spacecraft for which is shown here, surveyed for near-Earth objects.
NASA/JPL-Caltech

Detecting near-Earth objects

NEOWISE was a game-changing mission, as it revolutionized how to survey near-Earth objects.

The NEOWISE mission continued to use the spacecraft from NASA’s WISE mission, which ran from late 2009 to 2011 and conducted an all-sky infrared survey to detect not only near-Earth objects but also distant objects such as galaxies.

The spacecraft orbited Earth from north to south, passing over the poles, and it was in a Sun-synchronous orbit, where it could see the Sun in the same direction over time. This position allowed it to scan all of the sky efficiently.

The spacecraft could survey astronomical and planetary objects by detecting the signatures they emitted in the mid-infrared range.

Humans’ eyes can sense visible light, which is electromagnetic radiation between 400 and 700 nanometers. When we look at stars in the sky with the naked eye, we see their visible light components.

However, mid-infrared light contains waves between 3 and 30 micrometers and is invisible to human eyes.

When heated, an object stores that heat as thermal energy. Unless the object is thermally insulated, it releases that energy continuously as electromagnetic energy, in the mid-infrared range.

This process, known as thermal emission, happens to near-Earth objects after the Sun heats them up. The smaller an asteroid, the fainter its thermal emission. The NEOWISE spacecraft could sense thermal emissions from near-Earth objects at a high level of sensitivity – meaning it could detect small asteroids.

But asteroids aren’t the only objects that emit heat. The spacecraft’s sensors could pick up heat emissions from other sources too – including the spacecraft itself.

To make sure heat from the spacecraft wasn’t hindering the search, the WISE/NEOWISE spacecraft was designed so that it could actively cool itself using then-state-of-the-art solid hydrogen cryogenic cooling systems.

Operation phases

Since the spacecraft’s equipment needed to be very sensitive to detect faraway objects for WISE, it used solid hydrogen, which is extremely cold, to cool itself down and avoid any noise that could mess with the instruments’ sensitivity. Eventually the coolant ran out, but not until WISE had successfully completed its science goals.

During the cryogenic phase when it was actively cooling itself, the spacecraft operated at a temperature of about -447 degrees Fahrenheit (-266 degrees Celsius), slightly higher than the universe’s temperature, which is about -454 degrees Fahrenheit (-270 degrees Celsius).

The cryogenic phase lasted from 2009 to 2011, until the spacecraft went into hibernation in 2011.

Following the hibernation period, NASA decided to reactivate the WISE spacecraft under the NEOWISE mission, with a more specialized focus on detecting near-Earth objects, which was still feasible even without the cryogenic cooling.

During this reactivation phase, the detectors didn’t need to be quite as sensitive, nor the spacecraft kept as cold as it was during the cryogenic cooling phase, since near-Earth objects are closer than WISE’s faraway targets.

The consequence of losing the active cooling was that two long-wave detectors out of the four on board became so hot that they could no longer function, limiting the craft’s capability.

Nevertheless, NEOWISE used its two operational detectors to continuously monitor both previously and newly detected near-Earth objects in detail.

NEOWISE’s legacy

As of February 2024, NEOWISE had taken more than 1.5 million infrared measurements of about 44,000 different objects in the solar system. These included about 1,600 discoveries of near-Earth objects. NEOWISE also provided detailed size estimates for more than 1,800 near-Earth objects.

Despite the mission’s contributions to science and planetary defense, it was decommissioned in August 2024. The spacecraft eventually started to fall toward Earth’s surface, until it reentered Earth’s atmosphere and burned up on Nov. 1, 2024.

NEOWISE’s contributions to hunting near-Earth objects gave scientists much deeper insights into the asteroids around Earth. It also gave scientists a better idea of what challenges they’ll need to overcome to detect faint objects.

So, did NEOWISE find all the near-Earth objects? The answer is no. Most scientists still believe that there are far more near-Earth objects out there that still need to be identified, particularly smaller ones.

An illustration showing the NEO Surveyor craft, which looks like a small box with a square lens and a satellite dish, floating through space — An illustration of NEO Surveyor, which will continue to detect and catalog near-Earth objects once it is launched into space.
NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Arizona

To carry on NEOWISE’s legacy, NASA is planning a mission called NEO Surveyor. NEO Surveyor will be a next-generation space telescope that can study small near-Earth asteroids in more detail, mainly to contribute to NASA’s planetary defense efforts. It will identify hundreds of thousands of near-Earth objects that are as small as about 33 feet (10 meters) across. The spacecraft’s launch is scheduled for 2027.

About the Author:

Toshi Hirabayashi, Associate Professor of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology and Yaeji Kim, Postdoctoral Associate in Astronomy, University of Maryland

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:	*P/E Ratio (TTM)	*52-Week Price Return	*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT)	18.5	105.63	0.37
– Benchmark Symbol: XLF	22.9	38.93	1.0