Archive for Opinions – Page 4

2025 Market Review: Tantrums, Tech, Conflict & Cuts

By ForexTime 

As another busy year in the financial markets comes to an end our Senior Market Analyst Lukman Otunuga talks a look at the major stories from 2025.

This review covers the major themes, key movers, the year’s biggest shocks, our forecast scorecard, and the lessons worth taking into 2026.

All performance figures referenced are year-to-date as of 16th December 2025 unless otherwise stated.

Key takeaways

  1. USD’s grip slips on FX throne, down 9% year-to-date
  2. Oil ends 2025 with double-digit losses
  3. EU50 catches up to pack, hitting fresh all-time highs
  4. Read on as we reveal the FXTM Awards: Best performing assets of 2025!

What happened to markets in 2025?

2025 was defined by uncertainty as investors navigated Trump’s trade war, monetary policy shifts, geopolitical risk and the AI bet.

These themes sparked monstrous levels of volatility, sending tremors across the board. World stocks were placed on a rollercoaster ride in the face of Trump’s trade war before surging due to the AI bet. Nvidia, feeding off this momentum, became the first company ever to reach a market cap of $5 trillion.

The Cboe volatility index saw its biggest ever one-day spike amid the tariff chaos. A shaky dollar offered relief to G10 currencies, while oil prices were mostly pressured by oversupply fears and signs of tepid demand. In the crypto space, bitcoin bulls failed to deliver due to massive ETF outflows and growing sensitivity to macroeconomic forces. Precious metals welcomed the chaos, with one even ending the year with triple-digit gains!

Amid all these developments, there were some standout market shockers:

“Liberation Day” tariffs in April

On 2nd April 2025, the Trump administration announced a universal 10% tariff on all imported goods that would take effect on 15th April. This sent shockwaves across world markets as global growth fears sparked a risk-off stampede. The S&P500 lost more than 10% in the two days after the announcement.

Bitcoin flash crash during October

Bitcoin experienced a sudden flash crash on 10th October, wiping $12,000 from its value in a matter of minutes – resulting in an unprecedented $19 billion worth of liquidations. This brutal selloff was sparked by Trump’s threat to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods.

Longest US government shutdown in history

The US government shutdown on 1st October and didn’t reopen until 13th November.

Such an event created widespread disruptions, raised fears around the US economic outlook and threw everyone into the dark. Markets are still suffering the consequences with the October US jobs report never to be released.

How did our 2025 predictions play out?

Despite all the chaos and surprises, some of our market predictions came true.

12 months ago, we picked 3 assets that could serve up major opportunities for traders and investors this year.

Here’s how they performed:

1) Dollar loosens grip on FX throne

What we discussed in the 2025 Outlook

Our dollar outlook was firmly bullish due to Trump’s “America First” policies resulting in slower Fed rate cuts, US exceptionalism and safe-haven demand.

How things played out

The USDInd did not see its best year in a decade. Instead prices weakened as Trump’s tariffs sparked concerns over the US economic outlook.

Bloomberg data on G10 currencies performance year to date

After peaking in January, it was a slippery decline amid growing bets around the Fed cutting interest rates in the face of slowing growth.

Concerns over the Fed’s independence, political uncertainty and risk appetite favouring other currencies fuelled the USD’s decline. The longest US government shutdown in history rubbed salt into the wound.

At the start of the year, markets were only expecting the Fed to cut rates twice in 2025. We saw three rate cuts instead with further cuts expected in 2026.

Technical review

In our 2025 Outlook, we suggested “should prices slip under 105.50, bears may target the 50-week SMA at 103.90, 102.70 and 100.00.”

All bearish price targets were reached.

USD Index 2025 YTD chart

USD Index down 9% YTD

2) Oil lingers near 2025 lows

What we discussed in the 2025 Outlook

Our outlook on oil was heavily bearish thanks to Trump’s tariffs, global oversupply, OPEC+ output hikes, rising US shale production and still-elevated Fed rates.

How things played out

Oil prices ended 2025 roughly 15% lower but nowhere near the levels seen during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Prices were hit by demand-side fears and oversupply concerns as OPEC kept pumping production to reclaim lost market share.

In 2025, the cartel implemented a series of monthly production increases starting in April. These were part of a plan to gradually reverse previous voluntary output cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd). Rising non-OPEC supply and higher inventories contributed to the downside.

If not for mounting geopolitical risk in the Middle East and sanctions against Russia, oil prices may have extended loss – trading closer to Covid-19 levels.

Technical review

We suggested that “a solid weekly close below $70 may open a path toward $62, $50 and $37.”

Prices hit our first bearish price targets before bottoming out around $63.

Brent oil price chart 2025 YTD

Brent Oil down 16% YTD

3) EU plays catchup to hit all-time highs

What we discussed in the 2025 Outlook

We were firmly bullish on the EU50 due to expectations around the ECB cutting rates and easing geopolitical risk in the region.

How things played out

FXTM’s EU50 surged in 2025, gaining over 15% year-to-date.

These gains were powered by lower rates in Europe, robust earnings and a historic change to German government spending which saw hundreds of billions of euros on defense/infrastructure spending.

With more government spending for Europe’s largest economy, this boosted sentiment over the Eurozone’s economic outlook – supporting equities in the region.

Technical review

We stated that “a solid weekly close above 5110 may open a path toward 5250 and the all-time high at 5522. Beyond this point, prices may venture toward 5632.”

The EU50 peaked at 5831 in 2025, fulfilling all our bullish price targets.

EURO STOXX index price chart 2025 YTD

EU50 up 17% YTD

FXTM Awards: Best performing assets of 2025

Looking across the FXTM universe, these were the best performing assets we offered in 2025!

  • Crypto: Bitcoin Cash ↑ 25% YTD
  • Stock Index: SPN35 ↑ 46% YTD
  • Metal: XAGUSD (Silver) ↑ 120% YTD
  • G10 currency: SEK (Swedish Krona) ↑ 20% YTD

Disclaimer: Data correct as of 16th December 2025.

What lessons can traders learn from 2025?

Volatility offers opportunity regardless of market direction was one of the biggest lessons of 2025.

We went into the year with a Trump-centric focus, bracing for his trade war to throw global markets into chaos.

Trump certainly didn’t disappoint with the knock-on effects impacting commodities, currencies, indices and cryptos.

But markets proved resilient with equities across the globe hitting records and on track for double-digit gains in 2025.

Metals also found their champion in silver, which gained 100% year-to-date amid supply constraints and rate cut bets. Interestingly bitcoin suffered from heavy institutional selling and could be on track for its first negative year since 2022.

We saw the AI bet and expectations around lower interest rates support global stocks this year, but the question is for how long?

What’s the outlook for 2026?

With concerns still lingering around an AI bubble, tariffs starting to bite and geopolitical risk present, things could spice up in 2026.

And this means one thing: more volatility.

Get the inside story on what to expect from markets next year with our 2026 Outlook, which is set to be published early January 2026.


 

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ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

How rogue nations are capitalizing on gaps in crypto regulation to finance weapons programs

By Nolan Fahrenkopf, University at Albany, State University of New York 

Two years after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, families of the victims filed suit against Binance, a major cryptocurrency platform that has been plagued by scandals.

In a Nov. 24, 2025, filing by representatives of more than 300 victims and family members, Binance and its former CEO – recently pardoned Changpeng Zhao – were accused of willfully ignoring anti-money-laundering and so-called “know your customer” controls that require financial institutions to identify who is engaging in transactions.

In so doing, the suit alleged that Binance and Zhao – who in 2023 pleaded guilty to money laundering violations – allowed U.S.-designated terrorist entities such as Hamas and Hezbollah to launder US$1 billion. Binance has declined to comment on the case but issued a statement saying it complies “fully with internationally recognized sanctions laws.”

The problem the Binance lawsuit touches upon goes beyond U.S.-designated terrorist groups.

As an expert in countering the proliferation of weapons technology, I believe the Binance-Hamas allegations could represent the tip of the iceberg in how cryptocurrency is being leveraged to undermine global security and, in some instances, U.S. national security.

Cryptocurrency is aiding countries such as North Korea, Iran and Russia, and various terror- and drug-related groups in funding and purchasing billions of dollars worth of technology for illicit weapons programs.

Though some enforcement actions continue, I believe the Trump administration’s embrace of cryptocurrency might compromise the U.S.’s ability to counter the illicit financing of military technology.

In fact, experts such as professor Yesha Yadav, professor Hilary J. Allen and Graham Steele, anti-corruption advocacy group Transparency International and even the U.S. Treasury itself warn it and other legislative loopholes could further risk American national security.

A tool to evade sanctions

For the past 13 years, the Project on International Security, Commerce, and Economic Statecraft, where I serve as a research fellow, has conducted research and led industry and government outreach to help countries counter the proliferation of dangerous weapons technology, including the use of cryptocurrency in weapons fundraising and money laundering.

Over that time, we have seen an increase in cryptocurrency being used to launder and raise funds for weapons programs and as an innovative tool to evade sanctions.

Efforts by state actors in Iran, North Korea and Russia rely on enforcement gaps, loopholes and the nebulous nature of cryptocurrency to launder and raise money for purchasing weapons technology. For example, in 2024 it was thought that around 50% of North Korea’s foreign currency came from crypto raised in cyberattacks.

A digital bank heist

In February 2025, North Korea stole over $1.5 billion worth of cryptocurrency from Bybit, a cryptocurrency exchange based in the United Arab Emirates. Such attacks can be thought of as a form of digital bank heist. Bybit was executing regular transfers of cryptocurrency from cold offline wallets – like a safe in your home – to “warm wallets” that are online but require human verification for transactions.

North Korean agents duped a developer working at a service used by Bybit to install malware that granted them access to bypass the multifactor authentication. This allowed North Korea to reroute the crypto transfers to itself. The funds were moved to North Korean-controlled wallets but then washed repeatedly through mixers and multiple other crypto currencies and wallets that serve to hide the origin and end location of the funds.

While some funds have been recovered, many have disappeared.

The FBI eventually linked the attack to the North Korean cyber group TraderTraitor, one of many intelligence and cyber units engaging in cyberattacks.

Lagging behind on security

Cryptocurrency is attractive because of the ease with which it can be acquired and transferred between accounts and various digital and government-issued currencies, with little to no requirements to identify oneself.

And as countries such as Russia, Iran and North Korea have become constricted by international sanctions, they have turned to cryptocurrency to both raise funds and purchase materials for weapons programs.

Even stablecoins, promoted by the Trump administration as safer and backed by hard currency such as the U.S. dollar, suffer from extensive misuse linked to funding illicit weapons programs and other activities.

Traditional financial networks, while not immune from money laundering, have well-established safeguards to help prevent money being used to fund illicit weapons programs.

But recent analysis shows that despite enforcement efforts, the cryptocurrency industry continues to lag behind when it comes to enforcing anti-money-laundering safeguards. In at least some cases this is willful, as some crypto firms may attempt to circumvent controls for profit motives, ideological reasons or policy disputes over whether platforms can be held accountable for the actions of individual users.

It isn’t only the raising of these funds by rogue nations and terrorist groups that poses a threat, though that is often what makes headlines. A more pressing concern is the ability to quietly launder funds between front companies. This helps actors avoid the scrutiny of traditional financial networks as they seek to move funds from other fundraising efforts or firms they use to purchase equipment and technology.

The incredible number of crypto transactions, the large number of centralized and decentralized exchanges and brokers, and limited regulatory efforts have made crypto incredibly useful for laundering funds for weapons programs.

This process benefits from a lack of safeguards and “know your customer” controls that banks are required to follow to prevent financial crimes. These should, I believe, and often do apply to entities large and small that help move, store or transfer cryptocurrency known as virtual asset service providers, or VASPs. However, enforcement has proven difficult as there are an incredibly large number of VASPs across numerous jurisdictions. And jurisdictions have fluctuating capacity or willingness to implement controls.

The cryptocurrency industry, though supposedly subject to many of these safeguards, often fails to implement the rules, or it evades detection due to its decentralized nature.

Digital funds, real risk

The rewards for rogue nations and organizations such as North Korea can be great.

Ever the savvy sanctions evader, North Korea has benefited the most from its early vision on the promise of crypto. The reclusive country has established an extensive cyber program to evade sanctions that relies heavily on cryptocurrency. It is not known how much money North Korea has raised or laundered in total for its weapons program using crypto, but in the past 21 months it has stolen at least $2.8 billion in crypto.

Iran has also begun relying on cryptocurrency to aid in the sale of oil linked to weapons programs – both for itself and proxy forces such as the Houthis and Hezbollah. These efforts are fueled in part by Iran’s own crypto exchange, Nobitex.

Russia has been documented going beyond the use of crypto as a fundraising and laundering tool and has begun using its own crypto to purchase weapons material and technology that fuel its war against Ukraine.

A threat to national security

Despite these serious and escalating risks, the U.S. government is pulling back enforcement.

The controversial pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao raised eyebrows for the signal it sends regarding U.S. commitment to enforcing sanctions related to the cryptocurrency industry. Other actions such as deregulating the banking industry’s use of crypto and shuttering the Department of Justice’s crypto fraud unit have done serious damage to the U.S.’s ability to interdict and prevent efforts to utilize cryptocurrencies to fund weapons programs.

The U.S. has also committed to ending “regulation by prosecution” and has withdrawn numerous investigations related to failing to enforce regulations meant to prevent tactics used by entities such as North Korea. This includes abandoning an admittedly complicated legal case regarding sanctions against a “mixer” allegedly used by North Korea.

These actions, I believe, send the wrong message. At this very moment, cryptocurrency is being illicitly used to fund weapons programs that threaten American security. It’s a real problem that deserves to be taken seriously.

And while some enforcement actions do continue, failing to implement and enforce safeguards up front means that crypto will continue to be used to fund weapons programs. Cryptocurrency has legitimate uses, but ignoring the laundering and sanctions-evasion risks will damage American national interests and global security.The Conversation

About the Author:

Nolan Fahrenkopf, Research Fellow at Project on International Security, Commerce and Economic Statecraft, University at Albany, State University of New York

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The US already faces a health care workforce shortage – immigration policy could make it worse

By Bedassa Tadesse, University of Minnesota Duluth 

As Americans gather for holiday celebrations, many will quietly thank the health care workers who keep their families and friends well: the ICU nurse who stabilized a grandparent, the doctor who adjusted a tricky prescription, the home health aide who ensures an aging relative can bathe and eat safely.

Far fewer may notice how many of these professionals are foreign-born, and how immigration policies shaped in Washington today could determine whether those same families can get care when they need it in the future.

As an economist who studies how immigration influences economies, including health care systems, I see a consistent picture: Immigrants are a vital part of the health care workforce, especially in roles facing staffing shortages.

Yet current immigration policies, such as increased visa fees, stricter eligibility requirements and enforcement actions that affect legally present workers living with undocumented family members, risk eroding this critical workforce, threatening timely care for millions of Americans. The timing couldn’t be worse.

A perfect storm: Rising demand, looming shortages

America’s health care system is entering an unprecedented period of strain. An aging population, coupled with rising rates of chronic conditions, is driving demand for care to new heights.

The workforce isn’t growing fast enough to meet those needs. The U.S. faces a projected shortfall of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036. Hospitals, clinics and elder-care services are expected to add about 2.1 million jobs between 2022 and 2032. Many of those will be front-line caregiving roles: home health, personal care and nursing assistants.

For decades, immigrant health care workers have filled gaps where U.S.-born workers are limited. They serve as doctors in rural clinics, nurses in understaffed hospitals and aides in nursing homes and home care settings.

Nationally, immigrants make up about 18% of the health care workforce, and they’re even more concentrated in critical roles. Roughly 1 in 4 physicians, 1 in 5 registered nurses and 1 in 3 home health aides are foreign-born.

State-level data reveals just how deeply immigrants are embedded in the health care system. Consider California, where immigrants account for 1 in 3 physicians, 36% of registered nurses and 42% of health aides. On the other side of the country, immigrants make up 35% of hospital staff in New York state. In New York City, they are the majority of health care workers, representing 57% of the health care workforce.

Even in states with smaller immigrant populations, their impact is outsized.

In Minnesota, immigrants are nearly 1 in 3 nursing assistants in nursing homes and home care agencies, despite being just 12% of the overall workforce. Iowa, where immigrants are just 6.3% of the population, relies on them for a disproportionate share of rural physicians.

These patterns transcend geography and partisan divides. From urban hospitals to rural clinics, immigrants keep facilities operational. Policies that reduce their numbers – through higher visa fees, stricter eligibility requirements or increased deportations – have ripple effects, closed hospital beds.

While health care demand soars, the pipeline for new health care workers could struggle to keep pace under current rules. Medical schools and nursing programs face capacity limits, and the time required to train new professionals – often a decade for doctors – means that there aren’t any quick fixes.

Immigrants have long bridged this gap – not just in clinical roles but in research and innovation. International students, who often pursue STEM and health-related fields at U.S. universities, are a key part of this pipeline. Yet recent surveys from the Council of Graduate Schools show a sharp decline in new international student enrollment for the 2025-26 academic year, driven partly by visa uncertainties and global talent competition.

If this trend holds, the smaller cohorts arriving today will mean fewer physicians, nurses, biostatisticians and medical researchers in the coming decade – precisely when demand peaks. Although no major research organization has yet modeled the full impact that stricter immigration policies could have on the health care workforce, experts warn that tighter visa rules, higher application fees and stepped-up enforcement are likely to intensify shortages, not ease them.

These policies make it harder to hire foreign-born workers and create uncertainty for those already here. In turn, that complicates efforts to staff hospitals, clinics and long-term care facilities at a moment when the system can least afford additional strain.

The hidden toll: Delayed care, rising risks

Patients don’t feel staffing gaps as statistics – they feel them physically.

A specialist appointment delayed by months can mean worsening pain. Older adults without home care aides face higher risks of falls, malnutrition and medication errors. An understaffed nursing home turning away patients leaves families scrambling. These aren’t hypotheticals – they’re already happening in pockets of the country where shortages are acute.

The costs of restrictive immigration policies won’t appear in federal budgets but in human tolls: months spent with untreated depression, discomfort awaiting procedures, or preventable hospitalizations. Rural communities, often served by immigrant physicians, and urban nursing homes, reliant on immigrant aides, will feel this most acutely.

Most Americans won’t read a visa bulletin or a labor market forecast over holiday dinners. But they will notice when it becomes harder to get care for a child, a partner or an aging parent.

Aligning immigration policy with the realities of the health care system will not, by itself, fix every problem in U.S. health care. But tightening the rules in the face of rising demand and known shortages almost guarantees more disruption. If policymakers connect immigration policy to workforce realities, and adjust it accordingly, they can help ensure that when Americans reach out for care, someone is there to answer.The Conversation

About the Author:

Bedassa Tadesse, Professor of Economics, University of Minnesota Duluth

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Humbling Hubris

Source: Michael Ballanger (12/16/25)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares some words of wisdom and his 2026 outlook.

Originating in Greek mythology as a challenge to divine order, the term “hubris” remains a significant theme in literature and life, representing a dangerous belief in one’s own invincibility or superiority. Strictly defined, it is “excessive pride, arrogance, or overconfidence that leads to a person’s downfall, often by causing them to overstep limits, defy gods, or ignore warnings.

Mark Twain had a different definition that we as humans know all too well. Twain once wrote, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gits ya into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that ain’t exactly so.”

I had a teacher who reminded me at a very young age that making blind assumptions without checking one’s facts is a recipe for disaster and, worse still, embarrassment. “You know what you do when you ‘ASSUME’ something? You make an “ASS” of “U” and “ME.”

In the practice of writing newsletters, one tends to get elevated to the undeserved role of “authority,” as in, “he/she is an authority on gold and silver.” Sometimes, authors of financial newsletters are assigned designations like “guru” or “pundit” or “expert” but the reality of this pastime (as opposed to profession) is that most of us are simply common folks that for some unworldly reason have the intestinal fortitude and rhinoceros-like skin to put their opinions, expert or not, out there in full view for all the world to judge and rejoice or judge and condemn. The rejoicing comes after a particularly good guess (as opposed to calculation) at the future direction and amplitude of a particular stock or commodity. The condemnation occurs when one’s stab at the future direction and amplitude of a particular stock or commodity winds up in the trash bin. Reward or punishment for well-executed speculations is either more or fewer followers, and depending on whether one is paid as a “content provider” or under the subscriber model, loss or gain of people that grew accustomed to one’s accurate (or inaccurate) guesses.

As a young boy, I used to sell papers in the wee hours of weekend mornings at Woodbine Racetrack in northwest Toronto where the industry professionals such as trainers and grooms and jockeys would all arrive as the sun was rising and pay a dime for the “Daily Racing Form” which had all the races and the horses listed along with a list of their last three heats on either the turf (grass) or mud (dirt). One section of the paper featured the section where the handicappers wrote a column with their “touts” for the day’s races, which is where the term “tout sheet” was first derived. There was “Peter’s Picks,” “The Trackman,” and “The OddsMaker” all picking winners, placers, and showers for the expressed benefit of the amateur handicapper or weekend gambler who would lay down their minimum $2 bets with absolute certainty after reading through the hieroglyphics contained in the form.

One day, I decided to keep track of all the picks made by the “expert” race appraisers, so for the next few months of the summer, I wrote down the names of all the horses and where they finished each race. At the same time, I would pick three horses to win, place, and show in the same races, all based on their “colours” which were bay, chestnut, black, brown, or gray. At the end of the season, I tallied up all the results, and to no one’s particular surprise (except mine), a 12-year-old boy picking horses based on the colour of their coats outperformed the “experts” all equipped with 30-odd years of bookmaking and handicapping under their belts.

That is eerily similar to the late 1970s when newsletter guru and former E.F. Hutton Senior Technical Analyst Joe Granville would ask chimpanzees (dressed up as Wall Street bankers) to throw darts at the stock pages of the Wall Street Journal and then compare their track records to those of the “bank trust officers” that are today’s “market strategists.

The results were all the same. Sometimes the monkeys would be on top of the pack (usually in down markets), and sometimes they would be in the middle of the pack, but rarely did they trail the pack, once again proving that “A Random Walk down Wall Street” author Burton G. Malkiel was more than just a theorist but more of a statistician.

Over the years, I have found that investment success was more common in areas in which I was familiar, such as the junior mining space. I think the reason that my career evolved around commodities and mining was my fascination with those horses at Woodbine. You could look at two dozen horses under two dozen different jockeys, and only in the manner in which both horse and rider displayed a certain “swagger” could one recognize the importance of “presence” in the sport of kings. In a similar manner, CEO’s of successful mining and or exploration companies would emit a similar “swagger” when they entered a boardroom.

The firmness of a handshake or the directness of focus when being introduced seemed to accompany the great ones. However, at the end of the day, even the great ones (like Friedland, Beattie, or Netolitzky) would be the first to admit that really great geologists need an ample serving of good fortune in order to amass enviable track records. Luck does play a big part in any discovery because even the most sophisticated technology in geophysics or geochemistry cannot prevent Mother Nature and Lady Luck from playing a cruel trick with ruthless regularity and tempestuous timing.

Technical analysts would have us believe that all those squiggly lines on a graph are infinitely more predictive than the soggy leaves at the bottom of a teacup or a wishbone-shaped piece of driftwood in locating subsurface water. However, despite finding personal success in using the tool called “technical analysis” (“TA”) in improving returns, I learned a valuable lesson this past week. About a month ago, with gold prices approaching $4,400, I used TA to identify a series of extreme readings that, in past eras, have led to trend reversals.

As a result, on October 17, I sent out an email alert calling for a top in gold, which resulted in an outside key reversal day followed by a retest the following Monday that also failed. As a result, my call for the near-term top in gold was then and remains today as a solid one, with February gold still $213 below the top of $4,433 seen the prior Friday.

Inflated with inner peace and burgeoning with the pride one feels when a particular call goes well, I waited with the patience of a lion-hunter for another popular metal to display characteristics similar to that of gold. I lurked silently in the bushes until late November, and with all the hubris and swagger of a Secretariat or Northern Dancer approaching the starting gate, I elected to make the call that I now regret, and that call was “Sell silver.” The price was around $57.00 per ounce basis March.

During the week immediately following that call, I began to sense that there had been a kind of shift, as in “there’s been a shift in the force, Luke” from Star Wars fame, as silver spat in the face of GGMA “expertise” and drove northward through $59. On Monday, March silver gapped through $60, and by Thursday, it hit $65.

What changed?

As I sat in my office overlooking the lovely and now-frozen Scugog Swamp listening intently to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, I decided to write the following to my subscribers:

“In keeping with the Fed’s dual mandates of “price stability” and “maximum full employment,” their clandestine third mandate “protecting Wall Street” was delivered wonderfully today by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as he walked the world through the 2:30 presser with nary a thought about inflation but ample comments about the “weakening jobs market.” Wall Street took that as a “dovish” tilt and took the DJIA to a 600-point gain and the S&P 500 to a 55-point gain. Traders also took the U.S. dollar down with the DXY down .568 to 98.632, and gold from down $30 to up $27, and silver from down $0.27 to up $1.36.

With this kind of cheerleading, the Fed has given traders an early Christmas gift, so my speculation of a weaker, 2018-style close to 2025 must be shuttered. Also, the hedges on gold and silver being used in the GGMA 2025 Trading Account have to be re-examined as the dovish Fed has now thrown the U.S. dollar overboard in favour of easier money. The Fed has also reintroduced a mild form of quantitative easing, or as the commentators called it, “soft QE.” In a scenario of Fed purchases of $40 billion of T-bills every month, we are back to a stimulative environment, which, from where I sit, is patently absurd given the S&P within a chip shot of record highs. Any time the Fed engineers a “risk on” policy move, stocks and the metals always move higher, so to be hedged against a stimulative Fed is at once dangerous and stupid.

I look for traders to now have a free rein to take stocks and the metals higher into year-end. While I will not move to add to any new long positions in the gold or silver space, I now expect February gold to re-test the high of October 19th at $4,433. Gold traders cannot ignore the breathtaking breakout in silver, so I suspect that there will be a lot of short-covering by the end of the month. I will be looking at the RSI and the HUI:US to see if we get a confirmed new high for gold. If we get one, I will open new speculative positions in the leveraged ETFs and in options.”

This week, the HUI:US broke out above the October 15 high of 693.10 and moved to a new record high of 715.70. All that is required for there to be a confirmed new “leg” of the precious metals bull is for February gold to close above $4,433. At Friday’s high, it was $4,387.80, so we are banging on the proverbial door.

I used a phrase in this Thursday’s alert that should be recalled and recited, and that is this: “It is not a sin to be wrong, but it IS a sin to STAY wrong.”

May we never forget the wisdom of that adage.

2026

Moving into 2026 is going to be a very interesting endeavour as I am now forced to begin to formulate the GGMA 2026 Forecast Issue, which seems to be getting more difficult each and every year. The newsletter I write focuses on a given theme each year, after starting off in 2020 with the idea that escalating debt levels in the West would eventually require collateralization of sovereign debt with gold reserves, and whether it was pandemics or regional bank problems, each crisis was met with monetization.

Debt has remained a dominant theme and rationale for gold and silver ownership every year since the service was founded, but in the past two years, the electrification movement and the macroeconomic outlook for copper sent me scurrying for senior and junior opportunities in the northern and southern hemispheres. I used my beloved Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX:NYSE) as a proxy for not only copper but also gold, as the globe’s premier producer of the red metal is also a significant member of the gold club, thanks largely to its part-ownership of the mighty Grasberg Mine in Indonesia.

With great trepidation and fear verging upon abject guilt, I exited FCX in early July based largely on my concern that the huge gap between London Metals Exchange copper (at $4.40/lb.) was too much of a discount to CME (U.S.) copper, which had been “tariffed” into a $1.50 premium over London due solely to political posturing. A seminal event occurred in July when the Trump Administration elected to remove tariffs on imports of “raw copper,” causing a cataclysmic crash in U.S. copper prices to align perfectly with London prices. I bought back my position in July at sub-$40 and then exited again in September when copper prices had rebounded into overbought conditions.

Then the news hit of the Grasberg “mud rush”  accident that caused a halt in operations in that portion of the mine complex, after which the stock cratered to just above $35. I fully expected that overvalued equity markets would weaken during the seasonally soft August-October period, but resilient equities and a stubbornly strong copper price prevented the target price of “sub-$30” from ever being achieved. So, here I sit, with 13 trading sessions left in 2025, and I am bereft of my beloved FCX as it steams northward at $47.38 after hitting $49 earlier today. Every single time I exit FCX, karma bites me in the backside, shaking its skeletal finger while shrieking “Sacrilege!

The good news is that I have been blessed with a couple of junior copper deals that caught my attention in 2025. One is not new in that I have been an investor in Australian Campbell Smyth’s

Fitzroy Minerals Inc. (FTZ:TSX.V; FTZFF:OTCQB) since 2019, when he launched Norseman Silver into what we both thought could be a rip-roaring silver market in 2020. The company went through growing pains in 2020-2022 and then went “dark” in 2023 before finding a new team of managers and projects in U.K.-based CEO Merlin Marr-Johnson and Santiago-based COO Gilberto Schubert and after bottoming in late 2023 at $.035, the shares responded favourably to the management change and since then have not had time to even glance into the rear-view mirror.

Smyth has put together one superb team of highly-skilled professionals and is now backed by Crux Investor founder Matt Gordon as a major shareholder as well as Technical Advisor Craig Perry in their quest for copper stardom in the Atacama Region of the Chilean Andes. Searching for copper in Chile is like looking for seashells in the Bahamas in that, despite declining grade and reserves in some of the legendary state-run Codelco operations, it is the prime locale for copper discoveries. Blessed with a wonderfully hospitable mining environment, only the province of Quebec in Canada is friendlier to people with money looking to find metals while employing people, a notion that the Canadian provinces of Ontario and B.C. might consider. Smyth and friends have raised over CA$20 million since the lows of 2023 and have since come up with a brand new copper-gold-molybdenum discovery in their Caballos project that serves as a wonderful complement to their oxide copper deposit at Buen Retiro.

However, the seriously underpromoted and underemphasized component of that property is what may or may not be lurking under that massive oxide copper-bearing cap. Management has been quite “coy” about revealing anything about drilling intentions until their press release of December 2, where they reported: “Hole 43, 150 metres north of hole 42, is currently underway. Crucially, the core photographs look very similar to the style of mineralization from within the resource zone at Candelaria. These holes are the first time that Fitzroy has seen consistent sulphide mineralization of this nature, which further enhances the exploration model at this project.

Followers of this publication are quite familiar with my contention that Buen Retiro is one of those projects where management has — most appropriately — de-risked the project by drilling of the easily fundable oxide cap, where CAPEX requirements are relatively low, while carefully and very much under the cloak of darkness, valiantly trying to unlock the secrets of the deeper regions of Andean geology. All I can say is that it is exciting to be a shareholder, and we will leave it at that.

The other Chilean project is Grafton Resources Inc. (GFT:CSE; PMSXF:OTC), where essentially the same management group as Fitzroy has attempted to firewall the two main projects (Buen Retiro and Caballos) from further dilution by way of the creation of this new company.

New prospects that come across Schubert’s desk are funnelled into Grafton while the team focuses 100% on near-term production for Fitzroy, which is somewhat akin to one car driving in the middle lane of the Autobahn while the other is in the outside lane with full throttle, taking the moniker of “aggressive exploration.

With a capital structure time-warped from the 1980s, GFT has only 25 million shares issued, $4m in the bank, and a project (Alicahue) approved for drilling in January. All that needs to be completed is an airborne MMT survey to be completed in the very early New Year, and then it is “Game on.”

Many of the people who follow me are asking questions about Getchell Gold Corp. (GTCH:CSE; GGLDF:OTCQB) and the dismal lack of performance in this latest move in the mining stocks, as evidenced by the HUI:US move to 715 this week.

As a starter, the promotions of the last few years are not exactly at new highs. Let’s start with the greatest promotion in eastern Canada since the Hibernia oil discoveries in the late 1970s —

New Found Gold Corp. (NFG:TSX.V; NFGC:NYSE.American) — a highly publicized holding of billionaire Eric Sprott, who loves to have his name on private placements in order to attract institutional accompaniment.

The stock topped in 2021 at CA$13.50 per share, only to go through a series of disappointing resource calculations and board-level resignations. The stock is now at $3.93 despite an advance in gold from $1,700 in the month it topped in 2021 to the current level of $4,329.

Those who bought shares in NFG in 2021 as a proxy for a) gold and b) Eric Sprott’s brain have been squarely left in the camp of the “Bagholder Blues.” Let us take another look at the famous gold promotions of the past few years.

How about Novo Resources Corp. (NVO:TSX.V; NSRPF:OTCQX).

This company is touted by both Eric Sprott and legendary geoscientist Quentin Hennigh.

It topped at over $8.00 in 2017 and now resides at $0.12.

I would ask you all: Is it any wonder why a company staffed with solid management and loyal shareholders, developing an economically-viable project in an infinitely-promotable jurisdiction (Nevada), cannot cop a bid from the Sprotts or Rules of this world? Why does it take years to attract the favor of really well-intentioned and seasoned influencers?

Of my subscriber base, every single one has a story of some beautifully-promoted Canadian mining stock that sounds wonderful with really wealthy people talking it up that wound up with a frying-pan forehead from an irate wife that found out what hubby did with her inheritance money from Uncle Buck. Everyone has a New Found Gold or Novo skeleton hiding in their closet so when a real company with a real story comes along and asks new investors to look at the PEA which suggest that the stock should trade north of $1.00 at $2,250 gold and probably $5.00 at $4,000 gold and is available “on offer” at CA$0.385, their first instinct is to run for the hills as this story MUST be “too good to be true.

I could sit here and write another ten paragraphs, but it would be a wasted effort as I have been a loyal shareholder since 2018 and watched the company go from near-disintegration to virtual ecstasy earlier this month. Relative to other well-managed and well-sponsored juniors, GTCH/GGLDF is a takeover waiting to happen — a classic example where management is powerless to attract the value-add investor that takes a big position and then brings in his billionaire friends to take out all the weak hands. Make no mistake, CEO Mike Sieb has done a superb job finding gold and is fully capable of finding more, but finding gold and finding investors are two mutually exclusive exercises. It is one thing to find a mineralized trend, but it is many times as difficult to find a self-multiplying group of buyers of stock.

Nonetheless, Getchell Gold Corp.’s Fondaway Canyon asset is a jewel of an asset and will get bought at some price by some entity, especially at $4,400 gold that could easily be $8,400 gold in the next year, as I have been suggesting since 2020, when I first launched this letter. Chairman Robert Bass and his family own over 20% of issued capital and are staunch believers in the integrity of the project. So do I.

End of discussion.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Fitzroy Minerals Inc., Grafton Resources Inc., and Getchell Gold Corp.
  2. Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: Fitzroy Minerals Inc., Grafton Resources Inc., and Getchell Gold Corp. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  3. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Tariffs 101: What they are, who pays them, and why they matter now

By Kent Jones, Babson College 

The U.S. Supreme Court is currently reviewing a case to determine whether President Donald Trump’s global tariffs are legal.

Until recently, tariffs rarely made headlines. Yet today, they play a major role in U.S. economic policy, affecting the prices of everything from groceries to autos to holiday gifts, as well as the outlook for unemployment, inflation and even recession.

I’m an economist who studies trade policy, and I’ve found that many people have questions about tariffs. This primer explains what they are, what effects they have, and why governments impose them.

What are tariffs, and who pays them?

Tariffs are taxes on imports of goods, usually for purposes of protecting particular domestic industries from import competition. When an American business imports goods, U.S. Customs and Border Protection sends it a tariff bill that the company must pay before the merchandise can enter the country.

Because tariffs raise costs for U.S. importers, those companies usually pass the expense on to their customers by raising prices. Sometimes, importers choose to absorb part of the tariff’s cost so consumers don’t switch to more affordable competing products. However, firms with low profit margins may risk going out of business if they do that for very long. In general, the longer tariffs are in place, the more likely companies are to pass the costs on to customers.

Importers can also ask foreign suppliers to absorb some of the tariff cost by lowering their export price. But exporters don’t have an incentive to do that if they can sell to other countries at a higher price.

Studies of Trump’s 2025 tariffs suggest that U.S. consumers and importers are already paying the price, with little evidence that foreign suppliers have borne any of the burden. After six months of the tariffs, importers are absorbing as much as 80% of the cost, which suggests that they believe the tariffs will be temporary. If the Supreme Court allows the Trump tariffs to continue, the burden on consumers will likely increase.

While tariffs apply only to imports, they tend to indirectly boost the prices of domestically produced goods, too. That’s because tariffs reduce demand for imports, which in turn increases the demand for substitutes. This allows domestic producers to raise their prices as well.

A brief history of tariffs

The U.S. Constitution assigns all tariff- and tax-making power to Congress. Early in U.S. history, tariffs were used to finance the federal government. Especially after the Civil War, when U.S. manufacturing was growing rapidly, tariffs were used to shield U.S. industries from foreign competition.

The introduction of the individual income tax in 1913 displaced tariffs as the main source of U.S. tax revenue. The last major U.S. tariff law was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which established an average tariff rate of 20% on all imports by 1933.

Those tariffs sparked foreign retaliation and a global trade war during the Great Depression. After World War II, the U.S. led the formation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, or GATT, which promoted tariff reduction policies as the key to economic stability and growth. As a result, global average tariff rates dropped from around 40% in 1947 to 3.5% in 2024. The U.S. average tariff rate fell to 2.5% that year, while about 60% of all U.S. imports entered duty-free.

While Congress is officially responsible for tariffs, it can delegate emergency tariff power to the president for quick action as long as constitutional boundaries are followed. The current Supreme Court case involves Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, to unilaterally change all U.S. general tariff rates and duration, country by country, by executive order. The controversy stems from the claim that Trump has overstepped his constitutional authority granted by that act, which does not mention tariffs or specifically authorize the president to impose them.

The pros and cons of tariffs

In my view, though, the bigger question is whether tariffs are good or bad policy. The disastrous experience of the tariff war during the Great Depression led to a broad global consensus favoring freer trade and lower tariffs. Research in economics and political science tends to back up this view, although tariffs have never disappeared as a policy tool, particularly for developing countries with limited sources of tax revenue and the desire to protect their fledgling industries from imports.

Yet Trump has resurrected tariffs not only as a protectionist device, but also as a source of government revenue for the world’s largest economy. In fact, Trump insists that tariffs can replace individual income taxes, a view contested by most economists.

Most of Trump’s tariffs have a protectionist purpose: to favor domestic industries by raising import prices and shifting demand to domestically produced goods. The aim is to increase domestic output and employment in tariff-protected industries, whose success is presumably more valuable to the economy than the open market allows. The success of this approach depends on labor, capital and long-term investment flowing into protected sectors in ways that improve their efficiency, growth and employment.

Critics argue that tariffs come with trade-offs: Favoring one set of industries necessarily disfavors others, and it raises prices for consumers. Manipulating prices and demand results in market inefficiency, as the U.S. economy produces more goods that are less efficiently made and fewer that are more efficiently made. In addition, U.S. tariffs have already resulted in foreign retaliatory trade actions, damaging U.S. exporters.

Trump’s tariffs also carry an uncertainty cost because he is constantly threatening, changing, canceling and reinstating them. Companies and financiers tend to invest in protected industries only if tariff levels are predictable. But Trump’s negotiating strategy has involved numerous reversals and new threats, making it difficult for investors to calculate the value of those commitments. One study estimates that such uncertainty has actually reduced U.S. investment by 4.4% in 2025.

A major, if underappreciated, cost of Trump’s tariffs is that they have violated U.S. global trade agreements and GATT rules on nondiscrimination and tariff-binding. This has made the U.S. a less reliable trading partner. The U.S. had previously championed this system, which brought stability and cooperation to global trade relations. Now that the U.S. is conducting trade policy through unilateral tariff hikes and antagonistic rhetoric, its trading partners are already beginning to look for new, more stable and growing trade relationships.

So what’s next? Trump has vowed to use other emergency tariff measures if the Supreme Court strikes down his IEEPA tariffs. So as long as Congress is unwilling to step in, it’s likely that an aggressive U.S. tariff regime will continue, regardless of the court’s judgment. That means public awareness of tariffs ⁠– and of who pays them and what they change ⁠– will remain crucial for understanding the direction of the U.S. economy.The Conversation

About the Author:

Kent Jones, Professor Emeritus, Economics, Babson College

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Silver Hits Record High on Demand and Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

On Wednesday, silver surged past 66 USD per ounce, setting a new all-time high. The rally was driven by a mixed US employment report, which sparked investor interest in alternative high-return assets for portfolio diversification.

The November labour market data revealed the unemployment rate climbing to 4.6% – its highest level since 2021 – even as job creation exceeded expectations.

Silver’s year-to-date gain of nearly 130% is further supported by declining inventories and robust demand from both retail investors and industrial users. In particular, expanding sectors such as solar energy, electric vehicles, and data centres are driving increased industrial consumption.

Technical Analysis: XAG/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAG/USD established a consolidation range around 57.65 USD. Following an upward breakout, the market has extended to 66.72 USD, with scope for further gains towards 69.79 USD. Having completed a growth impulse to 66.51 USD, a minor correction towards 64.64 USD appears possible before the uptrend resumes.

The MACD indicator supports the bullish outlook, with its signal line firmly above zero, indicating sustained upward momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, silver completed a growth wave to 65.30 USD and has since formed a consolidation range around this level. An upward breakout has extended the move to 66.51 USD. A technical pullback towards 65.65 USD may occur; a break below this level could extend the correction towards 60.85 USD. Conversely, a rebound from 65.65 USD would favour a continuation of the uptrend toward 66.72 USD.

The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, with its signal line above 80 and trending upward, though nearing overbought territory.

Conclusion

Silver’s record rally reflects strong fundamentals – tightening supply, robust industrial demand, and its appeal as a hedge amid economic uncertainty. While the near-term trend remains bullish, the market is approaching overextended levels, increasing the likelihood of a short-term correction. Key support lies around 65.65 USD, with a break below potentially signalling a deeper pullback. Until then, the momentum favours further tests towards 66.72 USD and possibly 69.79 USD.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

US oil industry doesn’t see profit in Trump’s ‘pro-petroleum’ moves

By Skip York, Rice University 

As the Trump administration makes announcement after announcement about its efforts to promote the U.S. fossil fuel industry, the industry isn’t exactly jumping at new opportunities.

Some high-profile oil and gas industry leaders and organizations have objected to changes to long-standing government policy positions that give companies firm ground on which to make their plans.

And the financial picture around oil and gas drilling is moving against the Trump administration’s hopes. Though politicians may tout new opportunities to drill offshore or in Arctic Alaska, the commercial payoff is not clear and even unlikely.

Having worked in and studied the energy industry for decades, I’ve seen a number of discoveries that companies struggled to moved forward with because either the discovery was not large enough to be commercially profitable or the geology was too difficult to make development plausible. Market conditions are the prime drivers of U.S. energy investment – not moves by politicians seeking to seem supportive of the industry.

Market fundamentals trump policy announcements

The general decline in oil prices from 2022 through late 2025 has reduced the attractiveness of many drilling investments.

And opening the East and West coasts to drilling may sound significant, but these regions have unconfirmed reserves. That means a lot of subsurface work, such as seismic surveys, stratigraphic mapping and reservoir characterization – potentially taking years – would need to be done before any drilling would begin.

Offshore drilling also faces enormous opposition.

On the West Coast, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and California Attorney General Rob Bonta have made forceful statements against any new California offshore oil drilling. They have said any effort is economically unnecessary, environmentally reckless and “dead on arrival” politically in the state.

California local governments, environmental groups, business alliances and coastal communities also oppose drilling and have vowed to use legal and political tools to block them.

There is opposition on the East Coast, too. More than 250 East Coast local governments have passed resolutions against drilling.

Governors on both sides of the aisle, including Democrat Josh Stein of North Carolina and Republicans Brian Kemp of Georgia and Henry McMaster of South Carolina, have spoken out against drilling off their coasts.

Arctic drilling is even harder

Drilling for oil and gas in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the Beaufort Sea off Prudhoe Bay in Alaska would be a massive undertaking. These projects require years of development and are subject to future reversals in federal policy – just as Trump has lifted long-standing drilling bans in those areas, at least for now.

In addition, Alaska is one of the most expensive and technically challenging places to drill. Specialized equipment, infrastructure for frozen landscapes, and risk mitigation for extreme weather drive costs far above other regions. These projects also face logistical challenges, such as pipelines running hundreds of miles through remote, icy terrain.

Natural gas from Alaska would likely be sold to Asian buyers, who increasingly have alternative sources of supply from Australia, Canada, Qatar and even the U.S. Gulf Coast. As production rises in those places, the entrance of Alaskan natural gas into the market raises the risk for global oversupply, which could depress prices and reduce profitability.

Despite political support from the Trump administration, the oil and gas companies would need financing to pay for the drilling. And those loans won’t come if the oil companies don’t have agreements with buyers for the petroleum products that are produced. Major oil companies have withdrawn from Alaska and signaled skepticism about attractive long-term returns.

Trump has helped some

In the first 10 months of the second Trump administration, the president has signed at least 13 executive orders pertaining to the energy industry. Most of them focus on streamlining U.S. energy regulation and removing barriers to the development and procurement of domestic energy resources. However, the broad nature of some of these orders may fall short of establishing the stable regulatory environment necessary for the development of capital-intensive energy projects with long time horizons.

Those efforts have reversed the Biden administration’s go-slow approach to oil drilling, reducing – though not completely eliminating – the backlog of requests for onshore and offshore drilling permits that accumulated during Biden’s presidency.

Delays in permit approvals increase project costs, risk and uncertainty. Delays can increase the chances that a project ultimately is downsized – as happened with ConocoPhillips’ Willow project in Alaska – or canceled altogether. Longer timelines increase financing and carrying costs, because capital is tied up without generating revenue and developers must pay interest on the debt while waiting for approvals. Delays also lead to higher project costs, eroding project economics and sometimes preventing the project from turning a profit.

Investment follows economics, not politics

Unlike in some countries, such as with Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, Norway’s Equinor or China’s CHN Energy, the U.S. does not have a national oil or gas company. All of the major energy producers in the U.S. are privately owned and answer to shareholders, not the government.

Executive orders or political slogans may set a tone or direction, but they cannot override the fundamental requirement for profitability. Investments can’t be mandated by presidential decree: Projects must make economic sense. Without that, whether due to low prices, high costs, uncertain demand or changing regulations, companies will not proceed.

Even if federal policies open new areas for drilling or relieve some regulatory restrictions, companies will invest only if they see a clear path to profit over the long term.

With most energy investments costing large amounts of money over many years, the industry likely wants a sense of policy stability from the Trump administration. That could include lowering barriers to profitable investments by accelerating the approval process for supporting infrastructure, such as transmission power lines, pipelines, storage capacity and other logistics, rather than relying on sweeping announcements that lack market traction.The Conversation

About the Author:

Skip York, Nonresident Fellow in Energy and Global Oil, Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Whether Netflix or Paramount buys Warner Bros., entertainment oligopolies are back – bigger and more anticompetitive than ever

By Matthew Jordan, Penn State 

News of Netflix’s bid to buy Warner Bros. last week sent shock waves through the media ecosystem.

The pending US$83 billion deal is being described as an upending of the existing entertainment order, a sign that it’s now dominated by the tech platforms rather than the traditional Hollywood power brokers.

As David Zaslav, CEO of Warner Bros. Discovery, put it, “The deal with Netflix acknowledges a generational shift: The rules of Hollywood are no longer the same.”

Maybe so. But what are those rules? And are they being rewritten, or will moviegoers and TV audiences simply find themselves back in the early 20th century, when a few powerful players directed the fate of the entertainment industry?

The rise of the Hollywood oligopolies

As Hollywood rose to prominence in the 1920s, theater chain owner Adolf Zuker spearheaded a new business model.

Cartoon of man straddling three different horses and cracking them with a whip.
Lew Merrell’s 1920 cartoon for Exhibitors Herald, a film industry trade publication, depicts Adolf Zukor performing the feat of vertical integration.
Wikimedia Commons

He used Wall Street financing to acquire and merge his film distribution company, Famous Players-Lasky, the film production company Paramount and the Balaban and Katz chain of theaters under the Paramount name. Together, they created a vertically integrated studio that would emulate the assembly line production of the auto industry: Films would be produced, distributed and shown under the same corporate umbrella.

Meanwhile, Harry, Albert, Sam and Jack Warner – the Warner brothers – had been pioneer theater owners during the nickelodeon era, the period from roughly 1890 to 1915, when movie exhibition shifted from traveling shows to permanent, storefront theaters called nickelodeons.

They used the financial backing of investment bank Goldman Sachs to follow Zucker’s Hollywood model. They merged their theaters with several independent production companies: the Vitagraph film distribution company, the Skouras Brothers theater chain and, eventually, First National.

But the biggest of the Hollywood conglomerates was Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, created when the Loews theater chain merged Metro Pictures, Goldwyn Pictures and Mayer Pictures.

At its high point, MGM had the biggest stars of the day under noncompete contracts and accounted for roughly three-quarters of the entire industry’s gross revenues.

By the mid-1930s, a handful of vertically integrated studios dominated Hollywood – MGM, Paramount, Warner Brothers, RKO and 20th Century Fox – functioning like a state-sanctioned oligopoly. They controlled who worked, what films were made and what made it into the theaters they owned. And though the studios’ holdings came and went, the rules of the industry remained stable until after World War II.

Old Hollywood loses its cartel power

In 1938, the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission sued the “Big Five” studios, arguing that their vertically integrated model was anti-competitive.

After the Supreme Court decided in favor of the U.S. government in 1948 – in what became known as the Paramount Decisionthe studios were forced to sell off their theater chains, which checked their ability to squeeze theaters and squeeze out independent producers.

With the studios’ cartel power weakened, independent filmmakers like Elia Kazan and John Cassavetes flourished in the 1950s, making pictures like “On the Waterfrontthat the studios had rejected. Foreign films found their ways to American screens no longer constrained by block booking, a practice that forced exhibitors to pay for a lot of mediocre films if they wanted the good ones, too.

By the 1960s, a new generation of filmmakers like Mike Nichols and Stanley Kubrick scored big with audiences hungry for something different than the escapist spectacles Hollywood was green-lighting. They took risks by hiring respected writers and unknown actors to tell stories that were truer to life. In doing so, they flipped Hollywood’s generic formulas upside down.

A decade ago, I wrote about how Netflix’s streaming model pointed to a renaissance of innovative storytelling, similar to the period after the Paramount Decision.

By streaming their indie film “Beast of No Nation” directly to subscribers at home, Netflix posed a direct threat to Hollywood’s blockbuster model, in which studios invested heavily in a small number of big-budget films designed to earn enormous box office returns. At the time, Netflix’s 65 million global subscribers gave it the capital to produce exclusive content for its expanding markets.

Hollywood quickly closed the streaming gap, developing its own platforms and restricting access of its vast catalogs to subscribers.

Warner Bros. bought and sold

In 2018, AT&T acquired Time Warner, the biggest media conglomerate of the time, and DirectTV. It hoped to merge its 125 million-plus telecommunication customers with Time Warner’s content and create a streaming giant to compete with Netflix.

Then came the COVID-19 pandemic, and the theatrical model for film distribution collapsed.

The pressure on AT&T’s stock led the company to sell off HBO and WarnerMedia to Discovery in 2022 for $43 billion. Armed with the HBO and Warner Bros. libraries – along with the advertising potential of CNN, TNT and Turner Sports – CEO David Zaslav was bullish about the company’s potential for growth.

Warner Bros. Discovery became the third-largest streaming platform in terms of subscribers behind Netflix and Disney+, which had gobbled up 20th Century Fox.

But the results have been bad for audiences.

In 2023, Zaslav rolled out a bundled streaming platform called Max that combined the libraries of HBO Max and Discovery+, which ended up confusing consumers and the market. So it reverted back to HBO Max because consumers recognized the brand.

Zaslav then decided it was more cost effective to cancel innovative projects or write off completed films as losses. Zaslav often claims his deals are “good for consumers,” in that they get more content in one place. But conglomerates who defend their anti-competitive practices as signs of an efficient market that benefit “consumer welfare” frequently say that, even when they are making the product worse and limiting choices.

His deals have been especially bad for the television side, yielding gutted newsrooms and canceled scripted shows.

Effectively, in only three years, the Warner Bros. Discovery merger has validated nearly all the concerns that critics of “market first” policymaking have warned about for years. Once it had a dominant market share, the company started providing less and charging more.

Meet the new boss – same as the old boss

If it does go through, the Netflix-Warner Bros. merger will likely please Wall Street, but it will further decrease the power of creators and consumers.

Like other companies that have moved from being a growth stock to a mature stock, Netflix is under pressure to be profitable. Indeed, it has been squeezing its subscribers with higher fees and more restrictive login protocols. It’s a sign of what tech blogger Cory Doctorow describes as the logic of “enshittification,” whereby platforms that have locked in audiences and producers start to squeeze both. Buying the competition – HBO Max – will mean Netflix can charge even more.

After the Netflix deal was announced, Paramount joined forces with President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, the Saudi Sovereign Wealth fund and others to announce a hostile counteroffer.

Now, all bets are off. Whichever platform acquires Warner Bros. will have enormous power over the kind of stories that get sold and told.

In either case, Warner Bros. would be bought by a direct competitor. The Department of Justice, under the first Trump administration, already pushed to sunset the Paramount Decision, claiming that the distribution model had changed to such an extent that it was unlikely that Hollywood could ever reinstate its cartel. It’s hard to imagine that Trump 2.0 will forbid more media concentration, especially if the new parent company is friendly to the administration.

No matter which bidder becomes the belle of Trump’s ballroom, this merger illustrates how show business works: When dominant platforms also own the studios and their assets, they control the fate of the movie business – of actors, writers, producers and theaters.

Importantly, the concentration is taking place as artificial intelligence threatens to displace many aspects of film production. These corporate behemoths will determine if the film libraries spanning a century of Hollywood production will be used to train the machines that could replace artists and creatives. And with each prospective buyer taking on over $50 billion in bank debt to pay for the deal, the new parent of Warner Bros. will be looking everywhere for profits and opportunities to cut costs.

If history is any guide, there will be struggles ahead for consumers and competing creatives. In a media system that has veered back to following Hollywood’s yellow brick rules of the road, the new oligopolies are an awful lot like the old ones.The Conversation

About the Author:

Matthew Jordan, Professor of Media Studies, Penn State

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Week Ahead: USDInd faces triple risk – NFP, CPI & ECB

By ForexTime 

 

  • USDInd ↓ 9% YTD, weakened against all G10 this year
  • ECB expected to leave rates unchanged
  • NFP + CPI + ECB = heightened volatility?
  • Over past year NFP triggered moves of ↑ 0.7% & ↓ 0.4%
  • Technical levels: 100.00, 98.00 & 97.20.

A flurry of high-risk events could rattle global markets in the week ahead. 

Rate decisions by major central banks, speeches from policy makers and key economic data spell fresh trading opportunities:

Monday, 15th December

  • JPY: Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (Q4)
  • CNY: China Industrial Production (Nov); Retail Sales (Nov); Fixed Asset Investment (Nov); Foreign Direct Investment (Nov)
  • EUR: Germany Wholesale Prices (Nov); Eurozone Industrial Production (Oct)
  • CAD: Canada Inflation Rate (Nov)
  • USDInd: New York Fed President John Williams speech

 

Tuesday, 16th December

  • AUD: Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Dec)
  • JPY: Japan S&P Global manufacturing and Services PMIs (Dec)
  • GBP: UK Unemployment Rate (Oct); S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs (Dec)
  • EUR: Germany Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMIs (Dec); ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Dec)
  • USD: US NFP (Nov); Retail Sales (Oct); Unemployment Rate (Nov)

 

Wednesday, 17th December

  • NZD: New Zealand Current Account (Q3)
  • JPY: Japan Balance of Trade (Nov); Machinery Orders (Oct)
  • UK100: UK Inflation Rate (Nov)
  • EUR: Germany Ifo Business Climate (Dec)
  • US500: US Retail Sales (Nov); Business Inventories (MoM); Fed Williams and Bostic Speeches
  • WTI: API Crude Oil Stock Change (w/e Dec 12)

 

Thursday, 18th December

  • NZD: New Zealand GDP (Q3)
  • GBP: BoE Interest Rate Decision & MPC Meeting Minutes
  • EUR: ECB Interest Rate Decision
  • USD: US Inflation Rate (Nov); Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Dec 13)
  • MXN: Mexico Interest Rate Decision

 

Friday, 19th December

  • JPY: BoJ Interest Rate Decision; Inflation Rate (Nov)
  • UK100: UK Retail Sales (Nov); GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec)
  • EUR: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Jan); Germany PPI (Nov); Eurozone Consumer Confidence Dec)
  • CAD: Canada Retail Sales (Nov)
  • USD: US Existing Home Sales (Nov); Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Dec)

 

Our focus falls on the USDInd which has shed over 9% year-to-date.

Note: The USD Index tracks how the dollar is performing against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

Here is how they are weighed:

  • Euro: 57.6%
  • JPY: 13.6% 
  • GBP: 11.9% 
  • CAD: 9.1% 
  • SEK: 4.2%
  • CHF: 3.6%

 

These 3 factors could rock the USDInd in the week ahead:

 

1) US October/November NFP – Tuesday 16th December

The US is to release November nonfarm payroll figures, incorporating elements of October as well, the first major snapshot of employment since the government shutdown.

Markets expect the US economy to have created only 50,000 jobs in November while the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.4%. The low numbers are reflective of how the government shutdown impacted labour markets.

  • A stronger-than-expected US jobs report could cool rate cut bets, pushing the USDInd higher as a result.
  • However, further evidence of a cooling US jobs market could reinforce expectations around lower US rates – pulling the USDInd lower.

 

USDInd is forecast to move 0.7% up or 0.4% down in a 6-hour window after the US NFP report.

 

2) US November CPI – Thursday 18th December

The incoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) may impact bets around Fed cuts in the first few months of 2026.

Markets are forecasting:

  • CPI year-on-year (November 2025 vs. November 2024) to rise 3.1%.
  • Core CPI year-on-year to rise 3%.

Signs of rising inflation pressures may shave bets around the Fed cutting interest rates.

Note: The US retail sales reports and speeches by Fed officials may impact the USDInd throughout the week.

USDInd is forecast to move 0.2% up or 0.6% down in a 6-hour window after the US CPI report.

3) ECB rate decision – Thursday 18th December

The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, December 18th. This decision may be based on the Eurozone’s resilience in the face of trade tensions and improving economic outlook.

However, any clues about future policy moves could spark fresh volatility.

Note: The Euro accounts for almost 60% of the USDInd weight. A weaker euro tends to push the index higher and vice versa.

  • The USDInd could jump if the ECB strikes a dovish note and hints at potential cuts in 2026.
  • If the ECB sounds less dovish than expected on future rate cuts, this could drag the USDInd lower as the Euro appreciates.

USDInd is forecast to move 0.2% up or 0.3% down in a 6-hour window after the ECB rate decision.

Note: The Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Riksbank bank decisions may also impact the USDInd considering how they make up almost 30% of its weight.

 

4) Technical forces

FXTM’s USDInd is under pressure on the daily charts.

  • A solid breakout and daily close above 99.00 could trigger an incline towards the 200-day SMA at 99.50 and 100.00.
  • Should prices break below 98.00, bears could be encouraged to hit 97.20 and 96.50.


 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

 

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

The marketing genius of Spotify Wrapped

By Ishani Banerji, Clemson University 

Even before this year’s Spotify Wrapped dropped, I had a hunch what mine would reveal.

Lo and behold, one of my most-listened-to songs was an obscure 2004 track titled “Rusty Chevrolet” by the Irish band Shanneyganock. I heard it first thanks to my son, whose friend had been singing it on the swings at school. My son found it utterly hilarious, and it’s been playing in our house nonstop ever since.

Like parents all over the world, I rue how my son’s musical tastes have hijacked my listening history. But I’m also tickled to learn that our household is probably one of the few even listening to it.

Spotify Wrapped is an annual campaign by the popular streaming music platform. Since 2015, the streaming service has been repackaging user data – specifically, the listening history of Spotify’s users over the past year – into attractive, personalized slideshows featuring, among other data points, your top five songs, your total listening time and even your “listening personality.” (Are you a “Replayer,” a “Maverick” or a “Vampire”?)

As a consumer behavior researcher, I’ve thought about why these lists get so much attention each year. I suspect that the success of Spotify Wrapped may have a lot to do with how the flashy, shareable graphics are connected to a couple of fundamental – and somewhat contradictory – human needs.

Individuality and belonging

In 1991, social psychologist Marilynn Brewer introduced what she coined “optimal distinctiveness theory.”

She argued that most people are torn between two human needs. On the one hand, there’s the need for “validation and similarity to others.” On the other hand, people want to express their “uniqueness and individuation.” Thus, most of us are constantly striving for a balance between feeling connected to others while also maintaining a sense of our own distinct individuality.

At Thanksgiving, for example, your need for connection is likely more than satisfied. In that moment, you’re surrounded by family and friends who share a lot in common with you. In fact, it can feel so fulfilled that you may start craving the opposite: a way to assert your individuality. Maybe you choose to wear something that really reflects your personality, or you tell stories about interesting experiences you’ve had in the past year.

In contrast, you may feel relatively isolated when you move to a new town and feel a stronger need for connection. You may wear the styles and brands you see your neighbors and co-workers wearing, pop into popular cafes and restaurants, or invite people over to your home in an effort to make new friends.

Have it your way

When people buy things, they often make choices as a way to satisfy their needs for connection and individuality.

Brands recognize this and usually try to entice consumers with at least one of these two elements. It’s partly why Coca-Cola started releasing bottles featuring popular names on the labels as part of its “Share a Coke” campaign. The soft drink remains the same, but grabbing a Coke with your name on it can cultivate a sense of connection with everyone else who has it. And it’s why Apple offers custom, personalized engravings for products such as its AirPods and iPads.

Spotify Wrapped works because it nails the balance between competing needs: the desire to belong and the desire to stand out. Seeing the overlap between your lists and those of your friends fosters a sense of connection, and seeing the differences is a signal of your (or your kids’!) unique musical taste. It gives me a way to say, “Sure, I’ve been listening to ‘Soda Pop’ nonstop like everyone else. But I’m probably the only one playing ‘Rusty Chevrolet’ on repeat.”

The Wrapped campaign is also smart marketing. Spotify turns listeners’ unique, personal listening data into striking visuals that are tailor-made for posting to social media accounts. It’s no wonder, then, that the Wrapped feature has led to impressive engagement: On TikTok, the hashtag #SpotifyWrapped garnered 73.7 billion views in 2023. The annual campaign has earned numerous honors, including a Cannes Lion and several Webby Awards, otherwise known as the “Oscars of the Internet.”

It’s been so successful that it’s inspired a wave of copycats: Apple Music, Reddit, Uber and Duolingo now release similarly personalized “year-in-reviews.”

None, however, has managed to achieve the same level of cultural impact as Spotify Wrapped. So what’s on your list? And will you brag, hide or laugh at what it says about you?The Conversation

About the Author:

Ishani Banerji, Clinical Assistant Professor of Marketing, Clemson University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.