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Signs of economic instability emerge in Oakland County, one of Michigan’s wealthiest

By Grigoris Argeros, Eastern Michigan University and Jordyn Gerwig, Eastern Michigan University

Oakland County, home to nearly 1.3 million residents, ranks among Michigan’s wealthiest counties.

But that description does not tell the whole story.

Since 2020, Oakland County’s population and income have grown steadily. Over the same period, Wayne County’s population declined, and Macomb County experienced slower growth.

Oakland County also has higher incomes overall. Median household income is about US$97,760 in Oakland County, compared with $77,837 in Macomb County and $60,539 in Wayne County.

Some of Oakland’s communities, such as Birmingham and Bloomfield Hills, rank among the most affluent in the tri-county Detroit metro region, with rapidly increasing home prices. Homes in these communities can sell for well over $1 million. Residents here have generally better health outcomes and have remained at the top of the socioeconomic ladder over time. The median household income is $153,510 in Birmingham and $189,942 in Bloomfield Hills.

However, median household incomes can be misleading and mask important differences within the county. Prosperity is not evenly shared, a sign of long-standing economic inequality.

My sociology research focuses on neighborhood and socioeconomic change in American cities. To see where and how divides are emerging, it is necessary to look beyond overall averages and focus on communities within individual counties. Let’s see what we find when we look deeper into the communities in Oakland County.

Oakland County is known for its affluence, but some of its communities are experiencing changes in socioeconomic status.
Notorious4life (talk) (Uploads), CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

Measuring inequality

To do that analysis, I used an index of neighborhood socioeconomic status, developed by geographer Joe Darden and political scientist Sameh Kamel. Darden is known for his research on residential segregation and neighborhood inequality in the Detroit region.

Urban researchers and public health scholars use this index to compare neighborhood conditions within and across metropolitan regions and to examine how inequality is distributed.

The index uses census data to combine measures of income, education, housing and employment into a single score ranging from 0 to 100. Higher scores indicate higher socioeconomic position. Like any composite index, it summarizes complex social conditions into a single measure and cannot capture every difference between communities.

Oakland County’s wealth isn’t evenly shared

On this index, Oakland County’s communities are spread across the full socioeconomic range rather than clustering entirely at the top.

In 2023 about 61% fell into the highest socioeconomic tier. The rest were divided between the middle and lowest tiers.

Communities such as Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Troy and Rochester Hills remain relatively well-off, with some of the highest scores on the county’s socioeconomic index.

Cities such as Pontiac, along with suburbs such as Oak Park, Hazel Park and Madison Heights, fall in the county’s lowest socioeconomic tier with some of the lowest scores on the index.

Pockets of socioeconomic change

About 80% of communities in Oakland county remained in the same tier between 2010 and 2023.

Socioeconomic stability was strongest at the top: 9 in 10 high-tier communities stayed there.

But the rest of the county tells a different story.

Several communities outside the top tier changed position over time. Wixom and Keego Harbor moved up from the lowest tier into the middle, while Oxford and Rose townships rose from the middle tier into the highest.

Addison, Brandon and White Lake townships shifted from the highest tier into the middle, while Holly township moved from the middle tier into the lowest.

Wealth gaps point to growing disadvantage

These differences point to a growing socioeconomic divide within one of Michigan’s wealthiest counties, similar to trends in other parts of the U.S.

Understanding these divides is key to making sense of the region’s broader challenges, from rising housing costs to differences in job opportunities across metropolitan Detroit.

Communities with a low socioeconomic score have higher poverty and unemployment rates, lower median household income and fewer residents with a college degree or higher. Higher-tier communities show the opposite pattern, with lower poverty and unemployment, higher incomes, higher educational attainment and much higher home values.

The middle tier includes communities such as Ferndale, Auburn Hills, Waterford Township, South Lyon and Wixom. As a group, middle-tier communities resemble the county’s wealthiest areas on some indicators – such as unemployment and homeownership. On others, especially poverty, they remain closer to lower-income places.

A key distinction, however, is the continuing gap between the middle and the top. Middle-tier communities have lower incomes, fewer college graduates and far lower home values than higher-tier communities. The typical home in a middle-tier place is worth about $259,000, compared with more than $405,000 in the highest tier. The gap in median home values leads to significant differences in family wealth, which in turn affects retirement savings, the ability to pay for college and the financial cushion available during economic downturns.

These differences suggest that Oakland County’s stratification is not limited to a divide between struggling areas and wealthy ones. Instead, even its middle-tier communities lag behind the county’s most affluent places, especially when it comes to education and wealth. The divide, therefore, runs not only between the bottom and the top but also between the middle and the most advantaged communities.

How does Oakland compare with nearby counties?

In Oakland County, movement was evenly split, with 10% of communities moving up and 10% moving down, suggesting that gains and losses occurred at roughly the same rate.

In Macomb County, 13% of communities moved up, while 4% moved down. Wayne County showed the least change overall, with about 91% of communities remaining in the same tier between 2010 and 2023. This may be due to decades of economic hardship that have made it more unlikely for communities there to move in either direction.

Oakland County remains one of Michigan’s wealthiest counties. But its communities are not all moving in the same direction. Understanding these differences will be important as the region plans for the future.

About the Author:

Grigoris Argeros, Professor of Sociology, Eastern Michigan University and Jordyn Gerwig, Graduate Assistant, Eastern Michigan University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

17 Apr

Week Ahead: NAS100 faces triple risk cocktail

By ForexTime

NAS100 ↑ 11% MTD, recently touching ATH
Tesla ↑ 5% MTD ahead of earnings on Tuesday 22^nd April
US-Iran two-week ceasefire deadline expires April 21
US retail sales sparked moves of ↑ 0.6% & ↓ 0.5% over past year
Technical levels: 27000, 26500, 26000

The week ahead is packed with top-tier data releases, quarterly earnings from the world’s largest companies and key geopolitical developments.

Investors will be monitoring the looming deadline of a ceasefire between the US and Iran, Tesla earnings and US retail sales among other heavy hitting reports:

Monday, 20th April

CNY: China loan prime rates
CAD: Inflation Rate YoY

Tuesday, 21st April

EUR: Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
GBP: Unemployment Rate
NAS100: US retail sales MoM
The US-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire

Wednesday, 22nd April

EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
ZAR: South Africa CPI, retail sales
GBP: UK Inflation Rate YoY
NAS100: Tesla earnings

Thursday, 23rd April

EU50: Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
UK100: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
TWN: Taiwan industrial production, unemployment
NAS100: US initial jobless claims; S&P Global manufacturing, services PMI

Friday, 24th April

JPY: Inflation Rate YoY
CAD: Canada retail sales
GBP: Retail Sales MoM
EUR: German Ifo Business Climate
NAS100: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment

The spotlight shines on FXTM’s NAS100 which has rebounded 16% from its 2026 low.

Note: FXTM’s NAS100 tracks the underlying Nasdaq 100 index

Recently, US equities have been buoyed by hopes that the US and Iran will secure a permanent ceasefire. This has propelled both the NAS100 and US500 to fresh all-time highs!

Here are 4 factors that could trigger significant price swings:

1) US-Iran truce deadline

The US-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire on Tuesday April 21^st at day’s end.

Yet markets remain hopeful over both sides extending the truce – which could pave the way for a permanent ceasefire agreement. Despite Trump striking an optimistic tone, markets are likely to remain guarded and highly sensitive to any fresh developments.

Global sentiment may receive a boost if the truce is extended with hopes of an extended ceasefire supporting the NAS100.
Should the deadline expire and result in renewed conflict, this may hit risk assets like the NAS100.

2) Tesla Q1 earnings

Earnings season is in full swing with US banks posting solid earnings. US equity markets could be injected with fresh volatility when big tech companies report their results.

One of the world’s largest EV manufacturers with a market cap of over $1.46 trillion will publish its Q1 results on April 22^nd after US markets close.

Tesla shares have had a rough year so far, down almost 15% YTD. Deliveries already came in below expectations – totaling 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026, marking a 14.3% decline from the previous quarter but a 6.2% increase year-over-year.

Markets are forecasting a 3.1% move, either Up or Down, for Tesla stocks post earnings which make up roughly 4% of the NAS100 weight.

3) US retail sales

A string of key US data including the latest US retail sales report may provide fresh insights into the health of the US economy.

Given how this data may influence Fed cut expectations, this could mean fresh volatility for the NAS100 which remains sensitive to interest rates.

Note: US retail sales sparked moves of ↑ 0.6% & ↓ 0.5% over past year

Note: Traders are currently pricing a 35% chance that the Fed cuts rates in 2026.

4) Technical forces

The NAS100 is firmly bullish on the daily charts, recently hitting fresh all-time highs beyond 26300. However, the RSI indicates that prices are heavily overbought.

A solid breakout above 26500 may trigger an incline toward 27000.
Weakness below 26500 may open the doors toward 26000 and 25800.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

16 Apr

Industries most exposed to AI are not only seeing productivity gains but jobs and wage growth too

By Christos Makridis, Arizona State University; Institute for Humane Studies

Forecasts of the impact of artificial intelligence range from the apocalyptic to the utopian. An October 2025 report from Senate Democrats, for example, predicted AI will destroy millions of U.S. jobs. A couple of years earlier, consultant company McKinsey forecast AI will add trillions to the global economy, while emphasizing job losses can be mitigated by training workers to do new things.

The problem is that many of these claims are based on projections, overly simplified surveys or thought experiments rather than observed changes in the economy. That makes it hard for the public, and often policymakers, to know what to trust.

As a labor economist who studies how technology and organizational change affect productivity and well-being, I believe a better place to start is with actual data on output, employment and wages – which are all looking relatively more hopeful.

AI and jobs

In one of my new research papers with economist Andrew Johnston, we studied how exposure to generative AI affected industries across America between 2017 and 2024, using administrative data that covers nearly all employers. Our analysis covered a crucial period when generative AI use exploded, allowing us to analyze the effect within businesses and industries.

We measured AI exposure using occupation-level task data matched to each industry and state’s occupational workforce mix prior to the pandemic. A state and industry with more workers in roles requiring language processing, coding or data tasks scored higher on exposure, for example, compared with one with more plumbers and electricians.

We then took that exposure ranking by occupation and looked at changes in the standard deviation in occupational exposure, comparing that with labor market and GDP across states and industries from 2017 to 2024.

Think of a standard deviation as roughly the gap between a paramedic – whose work centers on physical assessment, emergency response and hands-on care that AI cannot easily replicate – and a public relations manager, whose work involves drafting communications, analyzing sentiment and synthesizing information that AI tools handle well. That gap in AI exposure is roughly what we’re measuring when we ask: Does being on the higher-exposure side of that divide change your industry’s trajectory?

This data allowed us to answer two questions: When AI tools became widely available following the public release of ChatGPT in late 2022, did states and industries that were more exposed to generative AI become more productive, and what happened to workers?

Our answers are more encouraging, and more nuanced, than much of the public debate suggests.

We found that industries in states that were more exposed to AI experienced faster productivity growth beginning in 2021 – before ChatGPT reached the public – driven by enterprise tools already embedded in professional workflows, including GitHub Copilot for software development, Jasper for marketing and content writing, and Microsoft’s GPT-3-powered business applications. In 2024, for example, industries whose AI exposure was one standard deviation higher saw gains of 10% in productivity, 3.9% in jobs and 4.8% in wages than comparable industries in the same state.

Those patterns suggest that, at least so far, AI has acted as a productivity-enhancing tool that boosts employment and wages rather than a simple substitute for labor.

Augmentation versus displacement

A crucial distinction in the data is between tasks where AI works with people and tasks where AI can act more independently. In sectors where AI mainly complements workers – think marketing, writing or financial analysis – our data show that employment rose by about 3.6% per standard deviation increase in exposure.

In sectors where AI can execute tasks more autonomously – including basic data processing, generating boilerplate code, or handling standardized customer interactions – we found no significant employment change, though workers in those roles saw slower wage growth.

What these findings suggest is that when AI lowers the cost of completing a task and raises worker productivity, companies expand output enough to increase their demand for labor overall — the same logic that explains why power tools didn’t eliminate construction workers.

The economic question is not whether any given task disappears. It is whether businesses and workers can reorganize fast enough to create new productive combinations. And so far, in most sectors, our evidence suggests they can.

But state policies also matter: These benefits were concentrated in the states with more efficient labor markets, meaning that the impact of generative AI on workers and the economy also depends on the types of policies and institutions of the local economy.

Importantly, these findings hold beyond occupational exposure. In additional work with co-authors at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, we found a similar effect on GDP and employment when looking at actual AI utilization — that is how often workers use AI. Drawing on the Gallup Workforce Panel, we measured workers actively using AI daily or multiple times a week. We found that each percentage-point increase in the share of frequent AI users in a state and industry is associated with roughly 0.1% to 0.2% higher real output and 0.2% to 0.4% higher employment.

To put that in context: The share of frequent AI users across all occupations rose from about 12% in mid-2024 to 26% by late 2025, a shift our estimates suggest corresponds to roughly 1.4% to 2.8% higher real output – or about 1 to 2 percentage points of annualized growth over that period.

New technologies rarely leave work untouched. But they also rarely eliminate the need for human contribution altogether. Instead, they change the composition of work, as our research shows. Some tasks shrink. Others expand. New ones emerge that were previously too costly or too hard to perform at scale. Put simply, some occupations might go away, but most of them just change.

If anything, the trends documented here are likely to strengthen rather than fade. Not only are generative AI tools rapidly improving, but also the experimentation and research and development that many workers and companies are engaging in are likely to pay large dividends. These investments – often referred to as intangible capital – tend to get unlocked a few years after a technology comes onto the scene, once complementary investments have been made.

The role of companies and managers

Whether AI leads to anxiety or adaptation for workers depends in part on what happens inside organizations. Using additional data collected over many years in the Gallup Workforce Panel covering more than 30,000 U.S. employees from 2023 to 2026, I found in a 2026 paper that workplace adoption of generative AI rose quickly over the period, with the share of workers using AI often increasing from 9% to 26%.

But the more important finding is that adoption was far more common where workers believed their organization had communicated a clear AI strategy and where employees said they trust leadership. This suggests that growing adoption and effective use of AI depends not only on the availability of the technology but on whether managers make its use clear, credible and safe.

Where that clarity exists, frequent AI use is associated with higher engagement and job satisfaction, and it even reverses the burnout penalties that appear elsewhere.

In other words, the broader economic effects of AI depend not only on how sophisticated the tools are but on whether companies and managers create environments where workers can experiment, reorganize tasks and integrate new tools into productive routines. That is, if employees do not feel the psychological safety to experiment, they are less likely to use AI, and they are especially less likely to use it for higher-value work.

That is precisely the kind of adaptation that I believe makes labor markets more resilient than the most alarmist forecasts suggest.

About the Author:

Christos Makridis, Associate Research Professor of Information Systems, Arizona State University; Institute for Humane Studies

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

12 Apr

Large Currency Speculators Drop Euro Bets into Bearish Territory

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Bitcoin & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall decisively lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the US Dollar Index (1,830 contracts) with Bitcoin (287 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-22,964 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-20,870 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-12,616 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-10,693 contracts), the EuroFX (-8,048 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-7,487 contracts), the British Pound (-3,689 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-823 contracts), and with the Mexican Peso (-213 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Large Currency Speculators Drop Euro Bets fall into Bearish Territory

Highlighting the Currencies speculator positioning this week was the weakness in the Euro speculator positions. Euro bets fell this week by -8,048 contracts and this was the eighth consecutive week that the Euro speculator positions declined. This has been a swift turnaround for the Euro, coming from a strong bullish position into a new negative bearish level. The speculator bets were as high as +180,305 contracts on February 10th and have fallen all the way to this week’s new negative position of -7,541 contracts. This is an eight-week total decline by -187,846 net positions and marks the first bearish position in the Euro speculator positions since March 4, 2025, a span of 57 weeks.

The Euro sentiment has sold off sharply, but in the Foreign Exchange markets, the Euro price has not fared too badly and closed this week at 1.1766. Euro positions have now been in a range dating back to June 2025 between 1.1500 on the downside to a topside resistance level of 1.1935 approximately. We’ve not seen a clear break of these two levels since June.

The Canadian Dollar also saw speculator weakness again this week and fell by over -22,000 contracts. This is the fourth week of bearish contracts for the Canadian Dollar positioning and has now pushed the overall net position to -55,648 net contracts, which marks the most bearish position since December 23rd. Canadian Dollar contracts had seen an overall bullish level from February 3rd until March 17th of this year before retreating back into bearish territory. In the Foreign Exchange markets, the Canadian Dollar rebounded this week after falling for four consecutive weeks and closed out the week at the exchange rate (against the US Dollar) of 0.7252. The Canadian Dollar is currently under its 200-week moving average and is trading in an ascending triangle pattern with a topside resistance of around 0.7400 while support underneath can be found at 0.7200.

The US Dollar Index saw a gain in bullish positions this week for a second consecutive week and for the third time out of the past four weeks. The US Dollar Index has now been in an overall bullish level for the fourth consecutive week and has gone from a position of -5,882 contracts on March 10 to this week’s net position of 5,511 net contracts, which is a change of +11,393 contracts in just the past four weeks. The US Dollar Index pricing, however, has continued to be stuck in a range from 98.00 on the low side to 100.00 on the upside. The DXY has been in this range for the past six weeks, oscillating between the higher side and the lower side, and this week closed out at 98.44.

Bitcoin and the Mexican Peso lead Currency prices this week

In the Currency Markets, Bitcoin, although a cryptocurrency, rose by 6.20% for the week. The Mexican Peso was up by 3.27% over the past five days. Next up, the Brazilian Real advanced by 2.94% on the week, followed by the Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar, which rose by 2.78% and 2.75%, respectively. The British Pound was up by 2.14%, while the Euro also saw a boost of 1.90%. The Swiss Franc advanced higher by 1.54% and was followed by the Canadian Dollar, which saw an increase of 0.77%. The Japanese Yen rounded out the gainers with a 0.30% uptick.

The only market that saw a decline on the week was the US Dollar Index, which fell by -1.54%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (94 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Canadian Dollar (60 percent) and the US Dollar Index (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (24 percent), the Japanese Yen (25 percent) and the EuroFX (26 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (59.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (54.1 percent)
EuroFX (25.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (29.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (15.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (24.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (30.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (38.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (40.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (60.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (70.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (94.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (100.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (23.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (32.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (41.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (41.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.3 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (94.3 percent)

Bitcoin & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (27 percent) and the Swiss Franc (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (20 percent), the Australian Dollar (10 percent) and the Brazilian Real (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The EuroFX (-63 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-36 percent), Japanese Yen (-29 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-18 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (19.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (9.1 percent)
EuroFX (-62.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-66.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (0.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-4.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (-29.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-23.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (21.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (22.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-35.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-25.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (9.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (18.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-7.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (7.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-18.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-18.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (2.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (13.1 percent)
Bitcoin (27.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 1,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,681 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.1	21.7	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	39.9	6.4
– Net Position:	5,511	-6,675	1,164
– Gross Longs:	23,084	7,926	3,501
– Gross Shorts:	17,573	14,601	2,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.0	38.4	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.7	-25.2	34.2

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -7,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -8,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 507 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.9	60.0	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	64.2	5.7
– Net Position:	-7,541	-33,150	40,691
– Gross Longs:	200,946	464,746	85,038
– Gross Shorts:	208,487	497,896	44,347
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.9	69.9	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-62.6	60.6	-28.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -56,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -3,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,665 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	70.5	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.5	44.9	11.8
– Net Position:	-56,354	62,698	-6,344
– Gross Longs:	47,344	172,233	22,515
– Gross Shorts:	103,698	109,535	28,859
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	84.7	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	2.5	-18.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -93,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -20,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -72,872 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	55.0	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.0	29.1	11.1
– Net Position:	-93,742	90,396	3,346
– Gross Longs:	91,560	192,103	42,118
– Gross Shorts:	185,302	101,707	38,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.9	73.7	45.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.0	26.5	0.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -30,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -823 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,871 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	74.3	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.6	29.6	22.5
– Net Position:	-30,694	38,686	-7,992
– Gross Longs:	10,586	64,346	11,477
– Gross Shorts:	41,280	25,660	19,469
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.7	62.6	44.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-2.2	-38.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -22,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,684 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	58.2	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.3	34.0	13.9
– Net Position:	-55,648	58,038	-2,390
– Gross Longs:	60,714	139,988	31,055
– Gross Shorts:	116,362	81,950	33,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.5	41.3	38.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.8	35.6	-14.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 70,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -10,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,506 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.1	30.9	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	67.7	5.9
– Net Position:	70,813	-97,347	26,534
– Gross Longs:	137,959	81,872	42,080
– Gross Shorts:	67,146	179,219	15,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.3	5.2	96.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-8.8	4.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -36,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -7,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,588 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	77.4	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.3	29.2	6.6
– Net Position:	-36,075	37,071	-996
– Gross Longs:	12,636	59,568	4,103
– Gross Shorts:	48,711	22,497	5,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.7	75.8	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	10.6	-37.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 57,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -213 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,684 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.8	45.8	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	79.6	1.2
– Net Position:	57,471	-61,787	4,316
– Gross Longs:	91,055	83,760	6,529
– Gross Shorts:	33,584	145,547	2,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	56.3	46.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	17.3	0.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 40,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -12,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,711 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.3	24.3	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.1	63.3	0.7
– Net Position:	40,095	-44,497	4,402
– Gross Longs:	80,157	27,699	5,206
– Gross Shorts:	40,062	72,196	804
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	6.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.1	29.5	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-2.2	-1.8

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,253 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.4	0.7	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.0	10.7	5.5
– Net Position:	2,540	-2,232	-308
– Gross Longs:	16,142	150	927
– Gross Shorts:	13,602	2,382	1,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	6.9	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.2	-24.8	-13.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

12 Apr

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Oil, Bitcoin & AUD lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday April 7th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in tied at the top of the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Soybean Oil speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a boost by 35 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 148,242 net contracts this week with a gain of 13,685 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in next and also tied at the top of the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is now at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a rise of 27 percentage points this week while the speculator position registered 2,540 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 287 contracts in speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position has cooled off lately and comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The AUD speculator level now resides at a 94 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an increase by 10 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 70,813 net contracts this week with a drop of -10,693 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score saw no change this week while the overall speculator position was 208,459 net contracts this week with a drop of -19,387 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Soybean Meal speculator level sits at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a strong gain of 29 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 116,864 net contracts this week with a small dip of -3,330 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Cocoa speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -8 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -22,072 net contracts this week with a dip of -471 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position continues to see very weak sentiment and comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -31 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -1,712,015 net contracts this week with a decline of -74,691 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Natural Gas speculator level now resides at a 14 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise by 9 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -183,987 net contracts this week with a reduction of -16,531 contracts in the speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing as the GBP speculator level is at a 16 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change this week as the speculator position was -56,354 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -3,689 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week with the NZD speculator level sitting at a 24 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -7 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -36,075 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,487 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

09 Apr

Water conservation works, but climate change is outpacing it: Phoenix, Denver and Las Vegas offer a glimpse of the future

By Renee Obringer, Penn State and Dave White, Arizona State University

When a drought turns into an urban water crisis, a city’s first step is often to limit lawn watering and launch a campaign to encourage everyone to conserve. It might raise water-use rates or offer incentives for installing low-flow devices.

While demand management techniques like these have had a lot of success in reducing water use, our new research suggests that they may not be effective enough in the face of climate change.

We looked at three cities in the Colorado River Basin – Phoenix, Las Vegas and Denver – to understand what each could do to increase demand management amid water shortages and how far those methods could go as temperatures rise and the Colorado River’s flow weakens.

The results suggest the region needs to be thinking about bigger solutions.

Colorado River states’ immediate challenge

The Colorado River provides drinking water to nearly 40 million people and irrigation for over 5.5 million acres of cropland. But it has experienced a significant drop in water availability in recent decades due in part to rising demand for water and a long-running megadrought in the Southwest.

To ensure that water is shared across boundaries, the seven states within the basin agreed to the Colorado River Compact in 1922, setting limits on water withdrawals from the river. Since then, the region has adopted additional rules, agreements and policies, collectively termed the “Law of the River.” But despite this compact, which the states are renegotiating in 2026, the basin’s water supply is shrinking.

Research shows that the region is likely to experience more intense, frequent droughts that last longer due to climate change, putting the water supplies for farms, people and energy systems at risk.

As researchers who study the impact of climate change on water systems, we wanted to see if demand management techniques could help under these intensifying conditions.

Getting people involved can change attitudes

Many demand management policies are reactive and only go into effect when sources run low.

These reactive policies can be successful during the scarcity period, but there is often a rebound effect: Water consumption can actually increase afterward.

We integrated survey data with a computer model of water availability and demonstrated that there can be long-term benefits to the local water supply if communities encourage positive attitudes toward conservation.

The survey focused on how people think about water conservation and climate change, drawing on a large body of research that shows people who care about the environment often take eco-friendly actions. Building off these ideas, we segmented the population into groups that shared similar views on water conservation and found that a large proportion of residents supported water conservation but weren’t actively participating in conservation programs within their communities.

We then used the computer model to explore how changing attitudes, and subsequent conservation behavior, could affect water supplies under climate change.

When participatory demand management works

Our research shows that individual actions, when implemented by a lot of people, can measurably improve water supplies’ reliability.

A great example of the benefits of long-term behavioral changes is Las Vegas.

Las Vegas is in many ways viewed as a city of excess; however, since 2002, the city has reduced its per-capita water use by nearly 60%, even as the population grew by more than 50%. It reached these savings through efforts to reduce seasonal irrigation, replace water-intensive landscaping and require new developments to be sustainable, along with the treatment and reuse of wastewater. Today, Las Vegas recycles nearly all of the water used indoors and returns it to Lake Mead.

Phoenix, another desert city, also runs successful conservation programs. These programs focus on converting grass lawns to desert-friendly landscaping and encouraging owners to fix leaks and install smart meters and low-flow devices. These programs led to a 20% reduction in water use over 20 years, while the population grew by about 40%.

Demand management is not always enough

These cities have shown that demand management can work, but there are limits on how much these techniques can do as water supplies dry up.

When we added projections of future climate change to our model, we found that conditions could lead to so little water being available that these demand management methods won’t be able to keep up.

In other words, climate change may create situations where water supplies are still severely limited, even after people reduced their consumption by up to 25%.

For example, under a plausible, moderately high emissions scenario, Phoenix’s available surface water supply was forecast to drop below the historical average by 2060. Even when we simulated higher participation in conservation programs, there was no noticeable change in the water availability, suggesting that any savings from reducing demand were counteracted by losses from upstream flow reductions. Encouraging people to use less water is a start, but there is a limit to how much people can conserve.

We found similar results in Denver under a moderate emissions scenario and in Las Vegas under a moderately high emissions scenario, indicating that even moderate climate change could lead to extreme scarcity conditions that are not manageable through demand-side changes alone.

What else cities can do

In these cases, it may be necessary to find other creative water sources, such as water reuse, desalination or limiting consumption in other sectors, such as agriculture or energy, to maintain the municipal supply.

These solutions, however, take time and money to implement. Desalination is incredibly expensive. A recently built desalination plant in Carlsbad, California, cost US$1 billion – four times the initial estimate.

Other solutions, such as reducing agricultural water use, require significant buy-in from local farmers and could result in producing less food.

Reducing the water consumed for electricity generation would require significant investment in renewable energy technologies that have lower water requirements than fossil fuels and nuclear energy.

While large-scale solutions like water reuse systems and desalination can be expensive, these costs might be necessary to maintain adequate water supply in the region, because simply encouraging people to use less won’t be enough.

About the Authors:

Renee Obringer, Assistant Professor in the Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Penn State and Dave White, Director of the Global Institute of Sustainability and Innovation, Arizona State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

08 Apr

Why the Persian Gulf has more oil and gas than anywhere else on Earth

By Scott L. Montgomery, University of Washington It has been said that Persian Gulf countries are both blessed and cursed by their vast oil and gas reserves. Geologic forces over millions of years have meant the region is an energy-rich global flash point, as it is now with a war underway that’s causing a global energy crisis.

As a petroleum geologist who has studied the region, I still find myself amazed at the size of its hydrocarbon endowment. For instance, there are more than 30 supergiant fields, each holding 5 billion barrels or more of oil, around the Persian Gulf. And wells in the region produce two to five times more oil each day than even the best wells in the North Sea and Russia.

Modern geoscience has identified several key factors of rocks that make a region particularly rich in petroleum, including their ability to generate and hold hydrocarbons. In the Persian Gulf region, all of these factors are at or near optimal levels.

For sheer abundance and ease of production, it simply doesn’t get any better than the Persian Gulf region.

A map of the Persian Gulf region shows locations of oil and gas fields. — The Persian Gulf region is rich in oil fields, marked in green, and gas fields, marked in red.
Central Intelligence Agency via Library of Congress

A quick history

Humans knew about the presence of hydrocarbons in the area long before flooding created the Persian Gulf at the end of the last ice age, between 14,000 and 6,000 years ago. Natural seeps of oil and gas are common along rivers and valleys in many parts of the region. Thousands of years before the start of the Common Era people used bitumen, a form of heavy oil, for building mortar and to waterproof boats.

The first modern oil discovery came in 1908 at a known seepage site in western Iran. In the 1950s and ’60s, an era of rapid expansion in oil and gas exploration, it became clear that no other region on Earth was likely to have a similar abundance.

Other areas with huge volumes of oil and gas have been found, such as West Siberia in Russia and, more recently, the Permian Basin in the U.S., but none compare either with the scale of reserves or the high rates at which oil and gas can be produced in the Persian Gulf.

Geologic setting

The Persian Gulf region is located where two continental plates are colliding: the Arabian Plate to the southwest and the Eurasian Plate to the east and north. This collision has been happening for about 35 million years and has resulted in a dynamic setting where rock layers have been bent and broken and, at deeper levels, transformed by significant heat and pressure.

Geologic features differ a great deal between the two sides of the Gulf. On the Iranian side, the the Zagros Mountains stretch 1,100 miles (1,800 kilometers) from the Gulf of Oman to the Turkish border. Part of the great Alpine-Himalayan mountain system, the Zagros are made up of highly folded and broken rocks that formed over the past 60 million years from the collisions of Africa, Arabia and India with Eurasia.

On the Arabian side of the Gulf, that type of bending and fracturing didn’t occur. Instead, the compressive forces of collision warped a rigid platform of deep, hard rock known as “basement rock” into broad, dome-like structures of enormous size, extending for tens, even hundreds, of square miles.

Underlying the Persian Gulf itself is a basin filled with debris eroded from the rising of the Zagros Mountains. In its deeper portions, the basin was subjected to high temperatures and pressures necessary for the generation of oil and gas.

Overall, it is an excellent setting for generating and trapping hydrocarbons on a large scale.

An overhead view of a folded and rumpled landscape. — A satellite view of an area of the southwestern Zagros Mountains shows long ridges and valleys, evidence of tectonic plates colliding.
NASA via Flickr

Rocks that make oil

Oil and gas form from organic material such as marine zooplankton and phytoplankton, originally concentrated in shales, mud-rich limestones and other rocks exposed to elevated temperatures and pressures. When rocks are composed of at least 2% organic material, they are considered to be high quality for oil and gas generation.

The Gulf region has a particularly large number of layers of such source rocks, some of which are especially thick, widespread and organically rich. Examples are the Hanifa and Tuwaiq mountain formations on the Arabian side of the Gulf, which formed during the Jurassic period, about 200 million to 145 million years ago, and the Kazhdumi formation in Iran, which formed in the Cretaceous period, about 145 to 66 million years ago. These rocks have between 1% and 13% organic content, and even more in some places.

Oil and gas structures

The region’s bent and fractured rock layers, and its domes, are well suited for trapping hydrocarbons.

Folds of the Zagros, which are legendary for geologists due to their spectacular forms on satellite imagery, contain hundreds of billions of barrels of oil and cubic meters of natural gas. A glance at a map of oil and gas in the Persian Gulf region will show a northwest-southeast trend of long, sausage-shaped fields reflective of major fold structures. These features actually include hundreds of individual fields of varied size, reaching from southern Iran through northeastern Iraq.

On the Arabian Plate, the large dome structures have formed especially large oil and gas accumulations. These include Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia, the largest in the world, which could produce over 70 billion barrels of crude oil. The South Pars-North Dome gas field, shared by Qatar and Iran, could produce at least 1,300 trillion cubic feet (46 billion cubic meters) of gas – equivalent in energy content to more than 200 billion barrels of oil.

The most important reservoir rocks are limestones in which portions have been partly dissolved, enhancing the ability for oil and gas to move through them. In Zagros reservoirs, fluid flows through fractures created by the folding and faulting related to plate collisions. And in places such as the Arab-D reservoir at the Ghawar Field in Saudi Arabia and the Asmari limestone in many Zagros fields, these high-quality oil-storage rocks cover huge areas – hundreds and even thousands of square kilometers.

Nothing on this scale exists anywhere else on the planet, onshore or offshore, testifying to the unique petroleum geology of the Persian Gulf region.

Future possibilities

The combined result of these factors is that roughly half of the world’s conventional oil reserves and 40% of its gas lie beneath just 3% of the Earth’s land surface.

U.S. Geological Survey assessments suggest that, even after more than a century of drilling and production, large amounts of oil and gas remain to be discovered in the Persian Gulf region. In a 2012 report covering the Arabian Peninsula and Zagros Mountains, the agency estimated there could be as much as 86 billion barrels of oil and 336 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the rocks, in addition to the amounts that have already been discovered.

More oil and gas could also be produced using the horizontal drilling and fracking techniques pioneered in the U.S. in the 2000s and 2010s. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now trying those methods in their petroleum fields. It’s too early to say how successful they may be, but research indicates they could allow even more production.

About the Author:

Scott L. Montgomery, Lecturer in International Studies, University of Washington

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

07 Apr

Hormuz closure threatens the global food supply – why grocery price hikes are coming

By Aya S. Chacar, Florida International University

The global energy crisis caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is only the beginning of the economic cost of the war with Iran.

I study how institutions affect businesses and supply chains, and I expect food prices to rise next, with high prices lasting even after whatever point hostilities end.

Along with about 20% of the world’s crude oil trade and a similar share of the world’s liquefied natural gas shipments, shipping traffic through the strait also carries roughly a third of internationally traded fertilizer, which is key to bountiful crops around the world.

Modern agriculture depends on precise timing of delivering nutrients to plants. When fertilizer arrives late or becomes too expensive to buy in sufficient quantities, farmers are left to either reduce the amount they use, plant fewer crops or switch to crops that need less fertilizer. Each option reduces overall productivity, cutting supplies of basic foods, feed for livestock and key ingredients used in a wide range of food products.

Ultimately, with corn prices rising, summer barbecues may taste a bit different or cost more. Corn on the cob may not be cheap, nor will corn-fed beef. In addition, many store-bought condiments, soft drinks and other food products are made with high-fructose corn syrup and will also cost more.

3 main crops, 3 nutrients needed

Three staple crops – corn, wheat and rice – supply more than half of the world’s dietary calories.

To maximize production, those crops need three main nutrients: nitrogen, phosphate and potassium. Nitrogen helps plants grow. Phosphorus helps transport energy within plant cells and is critical for early root growth and the formation of seeds and fruit. Potassium helps plants conserve water and boosts protein content.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the supply and increased the cost of all three.

Natural gas, which determines 70% to 90% of the cost of producing nitrogen fertilizer, has seen a 20% drop in production due to the war and price increases up to 70%. To preserve its own supplies, Russia has suspended exports of ammonium nitrate, another nitrogen source for fertilizer.

In a similar effort, China, the world’s largest phosphate producer, has blocked phosphate exports, removing 25% of the global supply.

Potash, the potassium-rich component of fertilizers, has also been in short supply in recent years, in part because of economic sanctions on Belarus and Russia, which are major potash producers.

As a consequence, fertilizer prices have risen globally. In the U.S., some fertilizers rose more than 40% in just one month after the war’s start in late February 2026.

An American farmer talks about the cost of fertilizer amid the war in Iran.

Affecting farmers first

Cereal plants absorb the vast majority of their nitrogen needs during their early growth. Applying fertilizer later in the growth cycle is less effective.

Reducing nitrogen application by 10% to 15%, or delaying application by two to four weeks, can reduce corn yields by 10% to 25%.

Producing less corn and wheat reduces not only food available for humans but also food for livestock. Increased fertilizer costs and reduced grain supplies increase the price of raising livestock, making meat and animal products more expensive.

When feed costs become unsustainable, farmers may be forced to kill or sell off the breeding cows and sows that represent the future of the food supply. In the U.S., a combination of persistent drought and high costs in 2022 forced producers to kill 13.3% of the national beef cow herd, the highest proportion ever. As a result, the U.S. beef cattle inventory shrank to its lowest level since 1962, a problem that restricts beef supplies for years.

Ultimately, the costs are passed to consumers. In 2012, when a historic Midwest drought slashed corn yields by 13%, it triggered a surge in feed prices, and U.S. poultry prices rose 20%.

More money can’t fix this problem

In mid-March 2026, the U.S. fertilizer supply was around 75% of normal levels. That’s right at the beginning of the time when Corn Belt farmers typically prepare their soil for planting, including the first applications of fertilizer. Subsequent fertilizer applications typically come from mid-April to early May and between late May and mid-June.

Farmers who fear not being able to optimize their corn yields may decide to plant less corn or switch crops and plant soybeans, which need less fertilizer. Either would reduce the corn supply.

Government loan guarantees and aid packages may help farmers cover higher costs, but they cannot address timing if enough fertilizer simply isn’t available when it is needed.

Hitting home

American consumers aren’t facing the gas and food shortages or power outages other countries are seeing from the war, but they will be hit in the pocketbook. U.S. prices for gas and jet fuel are already climbing. The effects on the food supply take longer to appear, but they are coming.

Even when crops are bountiful in the U.S., consumers are not immune to global economic forces. A smaller 2026 crop, with rising demand for livestock feed in some of the most populous countries, including China and India, will put pressure on global corn prices, affecting everyone regardless of their nationality.

In March 2026, the U.S. Department of Agriculture used data from before the Iran war to project a 3.1% average increase for all food prices.

The question for consumers is how much of the rise in corn prices will be passed to the consumer, and how fast.

USDA research shows that the speed and extent of changes in food prices vary widely by food category and the level of processing involved in making the food. Other factors also play a role, such as inventory levels, perishability and market competition. When farm prices change, wholesale prices usually adjust within the first month, but retail prices often take longer – sometimes two to four months.

Corn tortillas and other relatively lightly processed corn foods are more likely to show price responses within a few months after corn prices increase. Adjustments to cereals or poultry prices will take a little longer. Changes in the cost of livestock products such as beef will take longer, because there are more steps between the purchase of feed corn and the sale of the meat to consumers.

Other indirect costs, related to the cost of fuel and packaging, tend to hit later. Producers often absorb the price increases in the short term, but some increases are already in the works. For instance, transport companies are adding fuel surcharges on freight shipments.

Food price hikes hit low-income households harder than high-income households, because people with lower incomes spend larger shares of their money on food and housing. For these households, even relatively affordable proteins, such as chicken, may become harder to purchase regularly.

A global food emergency

The cost and availability of fertilizer will affect the whole world. More than 300 million people worldwide already do not have enough food. The U.N. World Food Program predicts an additional 45 million could join them by the end of 2026 if the conflict in the Middle East continues into the middle of the year.

Crop yields in India and Brazil in 2026 are expected to be lower than normal. East African farmers
struggled to afford fertilizer even before the crisis and will likely have to make do with even less.

These problems may seem removed for most Americans, but food prices are global in nature, and people in the U.S. will soon face these additional costs of the war.

About the Author:

Aya S. Chacar, Professor of International Business, Florida International University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Soft Commodities

05 Apr

Large Currency Speculators sharply add to Canadian Dollar Bearish Bets

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 31st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (10,634 contracts) with the British Pound (5,757 contracts), the Brazilian Real (3,463 contracts), Bitcoin (147 contracts), and the US Dollar Index (64 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-31,082 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-16,392 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-10,066 contracts), the EuroFX (-8,772 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,774 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-1,582 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators sharply add to Canadian Dollar Bearish Bets

The Canadian Dollar weakness highlights the currencies markets speculator positions for the week. The large speculative Canadian Dollar position fell by over 31,000 contracts this week, marking its third consecutive week in decline and the fourth time out of the past five weeks. In just the past three weeks alone, the Canadian Dollar has shed -68,843 contracts from its overall standing, going from a net position of +36,159 contracts on March 10 to this week’s new total of -32,684 net contracts. The Canadian Dollar had been in bullish territory for a seven-week span from the end of January until the middle of March before speculators started adding bearish positions. In the Foreign Exchange markets this week, the Canadian Dollar fell modestly but has now fallen for four consecutive weeks. Previously, the Canadian Dollar had reached six-month highs in January and February, just above the 0.7415 levels. However, since the beginning of March, the Canadian Dollar has been in a downtrend which has seen its exchange rate fall to 0.7207 at the close of this week. Where the currency goes from here could be determined at its current level around 0.7200, which has been a source of major support numerous times over the past three years.

The Japanese Yen position continues to also go more bearish and fell this week for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. The cumulative total of the past six weeks has now fallen by -85,827 contracts, bringing the Japanese Yen position from a bullish level of +12,955 contracts on February 17 to this week’s new total of -72,872 contracts. This week’s net position is now the most bearish since July 2024. The Japanese Yen against the US Dollar closed this week right near the 160.00 major significant level. The Yen is seeing weakness around the lowest levels of the past 30 years. Further upside will run into the 161.00 resistance area, followed by the 161.75 – 162.00 resistance that was challenged in July 2024.

Mexican Peso positions dropped sharply this week by over -16,000 contracts. Peso positioning has been sliding since late January when it was at the end of a seven-week streak where positions were over 100,000 contracts. Since then, Peso speculative positions have cooled off by a total of -45,430 contracts. That has brought the overall position down to this week’s total of 57,684 net positions. The Peso, meanwhile, has been in a nice uptrend over the past year, with prices gaining by approximately 19% since the beginning of February 2025. The Peso has run into weakness over the past six weeks. However, the currency rebounded this week strongly by approximately +1.50%, breaking a previous five-week losing streak.

The Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real lead the Currency market price performances this week

In the Currency markets, the price performance leaders were the Mexican Peso with a 1.46% rise on the week and the Brazilian Real, which increased by 1.30%. Bitcoin was modestly higher by 0.69%, while the Australian Dollar increased by 0.43%. The Japanese Yen ticked up by 0.32%, followed by the Euro, which was higher by 0.26%. Rounding out the gainers was the US Dollar Index, which edged higher by 0.03% on the week. The Swiss Franc was slightly lower by -0.02% and followed by the Canadian Dollar, which was lower by -0.34%. The British Pound was modestly lower by -0.40%, while the New Zealand Dollar rounds out the decliners on the week with a -0.84% decrease in the Currency markets.

Over the past 30 days, the only Currency that has a positive return is the US Dollar Index, which has risen by 2.48% in the past 30 days. While on the downside, Bitcoin has fallen by -5.77%, the New Zealand Dollar has dropped by -5.34%, and the Swiss Franc is down by approximately -4%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the Bitcoin (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (78 percent), Canadian Dollar (70 percent) and the US Dollar Index (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (17 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the EuroFX (29 percent), the Japanese Yen (31 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (32 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (54.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (53.9 percent)
EuroFX (29.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (32.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (14.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (30.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (40.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (70.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (83.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (94.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (32.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (34.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (41.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (53.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (75.8 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (96.9 percent)

Swiss Franc & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (22 percent) and the Australian Dollar (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (13 percent), Bitcoin (13 percent) and the US Dollar Index (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The EuroFX (-66 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-25 percent), Japanese Yen (-24 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-19 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (9.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (11.7 percent)
EuroFX (-66.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-65.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-4.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-13.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-23.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-12.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-25.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-6.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (18.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (19.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (7.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-18.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-7.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (13.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (12.8 percent)
Bitcoin (13.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 3,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 64 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.0	29.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	41.9	5.5
– Net Position:	3,681	-4,930	1,249
– Gross Longs:	21,708	11,319	3,389
– Gross Shorts:	18,027	16,249	2,140
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	43.2	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.1	-15.3	39.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 507 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.9	59.7	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	64.5	6.0
– Net Position:	507	-36,991	36,484
– Gross Longs:	200,168	462,337	83,289
– Gross Shorts:	199,661	499,328	46,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	68.6	51.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-66.2	65.0	-35.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -52,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	68.9	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	43.6	12.3
– Net Position:	-52,665	61,408	-8,743
– Gross Longs:	51,304	167,652	21,248
– Gross Shorts:	103,969	106,244	29,991
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.2	84.2	30.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	9.3	-35.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -72,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	53.9	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.7	33.4	11.2
– Net Position:	-72,872	70,707	2,165
– Gross Longs:	95,356	185,944	40,898
– Gross Shorts:	168,228	115,237	38,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.6	68.8	42.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.6	21.9	-2.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -29,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	73.0	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	28.2	22.3
– Net Position:	-29,871	35,735	-5,864
– Gross Longs:	9,315	58,243	11,957
– Gross Shorts:	39,186	22,508	17,821
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	57.8	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.3	-4.7	-34.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -32,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -31,082 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	55.8	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	40.2	15.2
– Net Position:	-32,684	33,986	-1,302
– Gross Longs:	56,421	121,227	31,625
– Gross Shorts:	89,105	87,241	32,927
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.4	31.6	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.2	25.9	-16.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 81,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.7	30.0	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	71.3	5.5
– Net Position:	81,506	-109,041	27,535
– Gross Longs:	141,775	79,251	42,040
– Gross Shorts:	60,269	188,292	14,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	98.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-15.5	-1.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,588 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	79.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.4	37.4	6.5
– Net Position:	-28,588	29,446	-858
– Gross Longs:	10,663	55,919	3,735
– Gross Shorts:	39,251	26,473	4,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.2	67.2	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-4.8	-28.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 57,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	45.2	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	78.2	1.4
– Net Position:	57,684	-60,576	2,892
– Gross Longs:	94,183	83,284	5,529
– Gross Shorts:	36,499	143,860	2,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.9	57.1	38.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	19.1	-9.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 52,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.8	28.8	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	69.6	0.7
– Net Position:	52,711	-56,481	3,770
– Gross Longs:	82,787	39,920	4,727
– Gross Shorts:	30,076	96,401	957
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	20.9	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-12.3	-4.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.3	0.8	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.4	9.6	6.1
– Net Position:	2,253	-1,809	-444
– Gross Longs:	14,914	168	805
– Gross Shorts:	12,661	1,977	1,249
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	16.3	14.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-2.3	-26.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

05 Apr

Speculator Extremes: AUD, Soybean Oil, Bitcoin & Bloomberg Index lead weekly Bullish Bets

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday March 31st.

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in tied this week at the top of the extreme standings as the AUD speculator level resides at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 19 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 81,506 net contracts this week with a boost of 10,634 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in tied as well at the top of the extreme standings this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is now at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a strong gain of 39 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 134,557 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 17,422 contracts in speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position also comes in at the top of the most bullish extreme standings this week with the Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise of 13 percentage points this week while the overall net speculator position was a total of 2,253 net contracts this week with an increase of 147 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position surged to tie at the top of this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range as the six-week trend for the speculator strength score spiked higher by 74.4 percentage points this week.

The speculator position is currently 23,297 net contracts this week with a gain of 35,029 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes up number five in the extreme standings this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a jump of 41 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -9,415 net contracts this week with a boost of 7,673 contracts in the speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Cocoa speculator level sits at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -4 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -21,601 net contracts this week with a decline of -1,485 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the 2-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -35 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -1,637,324 net contracts this week with a small rise of 855 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The GBP speculator level resides at a 17 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -4 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -52,665 net contracts this week with a rise of 5,757 contracts in the speculator bets.

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish standing. The Natural Gas speculator level is at a 25 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise by 12 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -167,456 net contracts this week with an increase of 5,151 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

Next, the Silver speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish standing for this week. The Silver speculator level sits at a 27 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was showed no change this week and the speculator position was 23,904 net contracts this week with a retreat by -769 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Opinions

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All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.