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Currency Speculators further pared back on Japanese Yen & British Pound bearish bets

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was British pound sterling (21,941 contracts) and the Japanese yen (17,721 contracts) with the Euro (4,275 contracts), Swiss franc (3,526 contracts), Brazil real (2,863 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,297 contracts), Canadian dollar (946 contracts) and Bitcoin (351 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Mexican peso (-4,568 contracts) with the Australian dollar (-1,638 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-710 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency changes this week is the continued rebound in the Japanese yen speculator positions. The yen positioning has been in net bearish territory for seventy-four consecutive weeks (dating back to March 9th of 2021) but has started to see a strong decrease in its bearish levels lately. Speculators have improved their yen standing in three out of the past four weeks and by a total of +36,449 contracts in the past two weeks alone. This recent positive sentiment has brought the overall yen speculative standing (currently at -25,032 contracts) to the least bearish level of the past seventy-four weeks or since the position turned bearish last year. The yen price has rebounded a bit over the past month as the USDJPY currency pair has cooled off after reaching 20-year highs above 139.35 exchange rate in July. Currently, the USDJPY is trading around the 133.50 exchange rate and has come out of overbought territory on the weekly RSI Indicator (Relative Strength Index).

British pound sterling speculators also sharply cut their bearish positions this week as speculator positioning have now risen in three out of the past four weeks as well as in eight out of the previous eleven weeks. Speculative positions recorded a large improvement by +21,941 contracts this week which is the best weekly gain for GBP bets since the middle of January. This positive development has dropped the overall bearish position to the best level (or the least bearish level) since March 15th, a span of twenty-one weeks. The British pound price has been in a deep and consistent downtrend against the US Dollar since ascending over the 1.4200 exchange rate in May of 2021 and touched a recent low below 1.1800 in July (for an approximate -17.5 percent drop over that period). However, on the positive side, the pound has managed to rise in three out of the past four weeks, closing out the week at the 1.2136 exchange rate and, notably, a bullish divergence recently appeared on the weekly RSI Indicator following the July low.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-09-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	59,639	88	38,637	89	-42,099	9	3,462	54
EUR	692,398	79	-34,536	24	14,402	80	20,134	8
GBP	224,581	59	-34,468	45	52,050	62	-17,582	19
JPY	225,834	72	-25,032	53	36,994	54	-11,962	29
CHF	43,202	27	-9,782	32	19,464	75	-9,682	25
CAD	143,646	26	21,223	63	-29,743	44	8,520	47
AUD	158,100	51	-57,588	31	59,441	63	-1,853	48
NZD	45,350	35	-276	71	4,044	37	-3,768	8
MXN	189,988	45	-27,621	16	24,722	83	2,899	55
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	25,481	7	1,733	52	-3,884	47	2,151	90
Bitcoin	12,510	70	-230	76	-71	0	301	20

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Dollar Index (89.4 percent) leads the currency markets scores currently and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (76.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores followed by the New Zealand Dollar (70.8 percent) and then the Canadian Dollar (63.2 percent). On the downside, the Mexican Peso (15.6 percent) continues to be the only currency in an extreme bearish level (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the EuroFX (24.4 percent), Australian Dollar (31.4 percent) and the Swiss Franc (31.7 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (89.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (90.6 percent)
EuroFX (24.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (23.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (45.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (53.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (42.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (31.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (22.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (63.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (62.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (33.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (70.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (68.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (17.5 percent)
Brazil Real (52.1 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (49.3 percent)
Bitcoin (76.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (69.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (17.0 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (14.5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (13.6 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (8.4 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. The Brazil Real (-34.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Bitcoin (-23.9 percent) followed by the Australian Dollar (-13.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-7.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-9.4 percent)
EuroFX (-7.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-7.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (14.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (5.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (17.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-3.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-15.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (18.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-13.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-14.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (6.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-5.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (1.6 percent)
Brazil Real (-34.7 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-44.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-23.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-29.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 38,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -710 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,347 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	85.1	3.5	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	74.1	3.4
– Net Position:	38,637	-42,099	3,462
– Gross Longs:	50,738	2,079	5,481
– Gross Shorts:	12,101	44,178	2,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.4	8.9	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	7.1	1.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	57.0	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	54.9	8.5
– Net Position:	-34,536	14,402	20,134
– Gross Longs:	200,088	394,543	78,944
– Gross Shorts:	234,624	380,141	58,810
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.4	80.1	7.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	9.7	-17.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 21,941 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,409 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	69.6	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	46.4	16.4
– Net Position:	-34,468	52,050	-17,582
– Gross Longs:	42,219	156,282	19,243
– Gross Shorts:	76,687	104,232	36,825
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.1	61.6	19.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-10.9	-1.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 17,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,753 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	65.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	49.4	14.6
– Net Position:	-25,032	36,994	-11,962
– Gross Longs:	52,333	148,628	20,978
– Gross Shorts:	77,365	111,634	32,940
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	53.7	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	-15.1	6.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,526 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,308 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	58.1	21.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	13.0	44.2
– Net Position:	-9,782	19,464	-9,682
– Gross Longs:	8,635	25,084	9,414
– Gross Shorts:	18,417	5,620	19,096
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	4.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	74.5	24.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	2.6	-1.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 21,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 946 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	41.6	23.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	62.3	17.6
– Net Position:	21,223	-29,743	8,520
– Gross Longs:	46,898	59,798	33,808
– Gross Shorts:	25,675	89,541	25,288
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.2	43.9	47.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-14.6	10.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -57,588 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,950 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	69.3	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.6	31.7	13.4
– Net Position:	-57,588	59,441	-1,853
– Gross Longs:	25,644	109,593	19,378
– Gross Shorts:	83,232	50,152	21,231
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.4	63.2	47.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	9.2	5.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,297 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.2	54.5	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	45.5	13.2
– Net Position:	-276	4,044	-3,768
– Gross Longs:	18,224	24,700	2,239
– Gross Shorts:	18,500	20,656	6,007
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	36.6	8.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-6.9	-6.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -27,621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,053 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.3	46.3	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.8	33.3	1.6
– Net Position:	-27,621	24,722	2,899
– Gross Longs:	95,572	88,036	5,991
– Gross Shorts:	123,193	63,314	3,092
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.6	83.1	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	6.5	-8.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,733 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.5	33.1	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	48.4	4.9
– Net Position:	1,733	-3,884	2,151
– Gross Longs:	13,635	8,440	3,405
– Gross Shorts:	11,902	12,324	1,254
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	47.5	90.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.7	33.8	7.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.3	3.5	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.1	4.1	5.9
– Net Position:	-230	-71	301
– Gross Longs:	9,294	439	1,034
– Gross Shorts:	9,524	510	733
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.1	53.6	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.9	50.8	10.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

13 Aug

Gold & Silver Large Speculator bets continue to gain after falling to multi-year lows

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT precious metals speculator bets were higher again this week as five out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while just one market had lower weekly contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (18,525 contracts) with Platinum (3,387 contracts), Silver (1,905 contracts) and Palladium (590 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only metals markets with a decline in speculator bets this week was Copper with a decrease of -1,071 contracts.

Highlighting the COT metals changes this week is the strong rebound in Gold speculator bets over the past two weeks. This week’s +18,525 contract rise followed last week’s +31,636 contract jump for a two-week gain of approximately +50,000 contracts. This positive speculator sentiment has pushed the Gold bullish level to the highest of the past five weeks. Previously on July 26th, the Gold speculator level had fallen to the lowest level in one hundred and sixty-five weeks, dating back to May 28th of 2019 and near the height of the COVID-19 pandemic panic when most markets were going haywire. The Gold futures price has been on the rebound as well after hitting a recent low near $1,678.50 on July 21st. The Gold price has had four straight positive weeks and closed out this week near the $1,815.50 level.

Silver speculator contracts rose this week for a second consecutive week and rose a little further away from bearish territory. The Silver speculator positions had previously dropped into bearish territory on July 26th, a rare occurrence and the first time it has happened since June 4th of 2019 (a span of 164 weeks). Silver bets have seen a modest rebound over the past two weeks while the Silver futures price has risen in two out of the past three weeks. Silver is back above the $20 threshold after bouncing off the $18 level for a few weeks in July.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-09-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,570,131	0	210,651	0	-238,073	100	27,422	53
Gold	453,540	0	142,851	19	-154,554	83	11,703	1
Silver	141,093	8	2,879	9	-13,574	89	10,695	21
Copper	187,988	21	-28,477	22	27,700	78	777	30
Palladium	7,619	6	-1,970	12	2,044	86	-74	40
Platinum	62,782	26	846	9	-4,055	93	3,209	7
Natural Gas	969,582	3	-125,419	41	86,734	58	38,685	72
Brent	175,896	21	-34,211	54	32,411	47	1,800	34
Heating Oil	283,749	29	24,464	78	-36,472	32	12,008	40
Soybeans	583,208	2	88,901	41	-62,971	65	-25,930	27
Corn	1,317,913	1	210,786	57	-160,654	49	-50,132	14
Coffee	209,446	13	30,453	65	-31,268	41	815	7
Sugar	765,669	12	26,065	42	-30,608	62	4,543	13
Wheat	320,767	14	-3,426	15	9,939	74	-6,513	77

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (21.9 percent) continues to be the leader in strength scores but is at a very low level. The rest of the metals all remain in a bearish extreme position (below 20 percent) and have been there for many consecutive weeks. Despite the persistent weak sentiment, all metals except Copper have started seeing improvements week-over-week with Gold rising by 7.1 percent this week.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (19.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (12.1 percent)
Silver (9.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (6.6 percent)
Copper (21.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.6 percent)
Platinum (9.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (4.6 percent)
Palladium (11.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (8.4 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Palladium (10.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Platinum (2.9 percent) and Copper (1.6 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data. Silver (-9.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently but is improving compared to last week’s -21.2 percent trend. Gold is at -5.7 percent this week and also has improved compared to last week’s -14.9 percent trend score.

Strength Trends Statistics:
Gold (-5.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-14.9 percent)
Silver (-9.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-21.2 percent)
Copper (1.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-4.7 percent)
Platinum (2.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-5.5 percent)
Palladium (10.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (8.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 142,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 124,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.6	26.9	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	61.0	5.8
– Net Position:	142,851	-154,554	11,703
– Gross Longs:	242,906	121,980	37,927
– Gross Shorts:	100,055	276,534	26,224
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.2	83.4	1.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	9.9	-34.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 974 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	40.3	17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	49.9	9.5
– Net Position:	2,879	-13,574	10,695
– Gross Longs:	48,864	56,876	24,122
– Gross Shorts:	45,985	70,450	13,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.0	88.9	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	5.0	15.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	45.3	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	30.5	7.5
– Net Position:	-28,477	27,700	777
– Gross Longs:	49,477	85,085	14,822
– Gross Shorts:	77,954	57,385	14,045
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	78.5	29.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-2.4	7.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,541 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.2	38.9	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.9	45.4	5.7
– Net Position:	846	-4,055	3,209
– Gross Longs:	27,754	24,450	6,803
– Gross Shorts:	26,908	28,505	3,594
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.2	93.2	6.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-0.9	-20.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,560 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	58.8	15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	32.0	16.6
– Net Position:	-1,970	2,044	-74
– Gross Longs:	1,331	4,482	1,191
– Gross Shorts:	3,301	2,438	1,265
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.7	86.2	39.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-13.4	31.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog investing Metals Opinions

13 Aug

COT Week 32 Charts: Bonds Speculators bets weaker this week led by Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 9nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower weekly contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bond (9,012 contracts) with the Long US Bond (8,467 contracts) and the Fed Funds (3,686 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Eurodollar (-99,296 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (-72,753 contracts) with the 5-Year Bond (-15,058 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (-10,376 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-9,201 contracts) also registering lower bets for the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-09-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,633,698	16	-2,885,979	0	3,205,927	98	-319,948	34
FedFunds	1,595,759	49	961	40	11,299	61	-12,260	29
2-Year	2,122,099	15	-172,221	47	224,202	69	-51,981	27
Long T-Bond	1,160,709	37	-47,586	69	23,404	19	24,182	72
10-Year	3,541,744	33	-286,478	29	386,245	68	-99,767	56
5-Year	3,901,253	46	-351,003	22	481,266	72	-130,263	45

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (69.1 percent) leads the bonds markets and is the only market with an above 50 percent score currently (above 50 percent of 3-year speculator bet range). The strength scores reiterate the weakness for speculator sentiment in bonds this year. On the downside, the Eurodollar (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is at the bottom of its three-year range. Joining the Eurodollar in an extreme bearish level (below 20 percent) is the Ultra 10-Year Bond at a 16.7 percent score.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (39.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (39.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (47.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (62.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (21.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (24.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (28.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (16.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (69.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (66.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (37.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (41.6 percent)
Eurodollar (0.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (1.8 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that there are no positive trends in the past six weeks currently. The US Treasury Bond (-3.0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (-5.4 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-9.5 percent) are the markets showing the least declines in the latest trends data. The 5-Year Bond (-26.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by the 10-Year Bond (-15.9 percent), the Fed Funds (-14.8 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (-14.2 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-14.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-15.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-14.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (-26.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-40.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (-15.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-10.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-5.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-3.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-9.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-2.9 percent)
Eurodollar (-13.4 percent) vs Eurodollar (-14.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,885,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -99,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,786,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.6	71.2	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	37.9	8.1
– Net Position:	-2,885,979	3,205,927	-319,948
– Gross Longs:	447,560	6,859,412	463,734
– Gross Shorts:	3,333,539	3,653,485	783,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.3	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	12.3	7.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,725 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	74.5	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	73.8	2.9
– Net Position:	961	11,299	-12,260
– Gross Longs:	172,597	1,188,928	33,947
– Gross Shorts:	171,636	1,177,629	46,207
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.7	61.3	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.8	14.9	-7.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -172,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -72,753 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	80.7	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	70.2	10.3
– Net Position:	-172,221	224,202	-51,981
– Gross Longs:	208,434	1,712,983	165,581
– Gross Shorts:	380,655	1,488,781	217,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.5	68.9	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	6.5	16.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -351,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,058 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -335,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	83.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	71.0	10.9
– Net Position:	-351,003	481,266	-130,263
– Gross Longs:	298,631	3,249,286	295,805
– Gross Shorts:	649,634	2,768,020	426,068
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	72.0	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.0	13.1	11.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -286,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,012 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -295,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	79.8	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	68.8	12.6
– Net Position:	-286,478	386,245	-99,767
– Gross Longs:	269,699	2,824,549	344,919
– Gross Shorts:	556,177	2,438,304	444,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.9	67.8	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	6.8	11.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -46,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.8	83.5	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	70.2	20.3
– Net Position:	-46,667	157,510	-110,843
– Gross Longs:	56,978	986,942	128,400
– Gross Shorts:	103,645	829,432	239,243
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.7	80.7	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	1.4	9.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -47,586 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,467 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,053 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	77.2	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	75.2	12.4
– Net Position:	-47,586	23,404	24,182
– Gross Longs:	87,700	896,500	168,639
– Gross Shorts:	135,286	873,096	144,457
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.1	19.0	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	-4.9	18.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -361,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -352,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.6	84.2	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	59.6	8.1
– Net Position:	-361,316	330,124	31,192
– Gross Longs:	47,821	1,132,208	139,719
– Gross Shorts:	409,137	802,084	108,527
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.8	76.6	50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	11.2	0.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing

13 Aug

COT Week 32 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets go slightly higher led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Live Cattle (11,693 contracts) and Lean Hogs (10,480 contracts) with Corn (9,431 contracts), Coffee (3,169 contracts), Soybean Meal (2,400 contracts) and Soybean Oil (626 contracts) also having increasing bets this week.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Sugar (-8,373 contracts) with Soybeans (-3,626 contracts), Cocoa (-3,605 contracts), Wheat (-2,701 contracts) and Cotton (-940 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-09-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,570,131	0	210,651	0	-238,073	100	27,422	53
Gold	453,540	0	142,851	19	-154,554	83	11,703	1
Silver	141,093	8	2,879	9	-13,574	89	10,695	21
Copper	187,988	21	-28,477	22	27,700	78	777	30
Palladium	7,619	6	-1,970	12	2,044	86	-74	40
Platinum	62,782	26	846	9	-4,055	93	3,209	7
Natural Gas	969,582	3	-125,419	41	86,734	58	38,685	72
Brent	175,896	21	-34,211	54	32,411	47	1,800	34
Heating Oil	283,749	29	24,464	78	-36,472	32	12,008	40
Soybeans	583,208	2	88,901	41	-62,971	65	-25,930	27
Corn	1,317,913	1	210,786	57	-160,654	49	-50,132	14
Coffee	209,446	13	30,453	65	-31,268	41	815	7
Sugar	765,669	12	26,065	42	-30,608	62	4,543	13
Wheat	320,767	14	-3,426	15	9,939	74	-6,513	77

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Soybean Meal (89.9 percent) leads the soft commodity markets this week and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Coffee (65.1 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity market in strength scores followed by Lean Hogs (61.4 percent) and Corn (57.0 percent). On the downside, Cocoa (12.2 percent) and Wheat (14.6 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores currently and are both in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (57.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (55.8 percent)
Sugar (42.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (43.7 percent)
Coffee (65.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (62.4 percent)
Soybeans (41.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (42.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (24.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (23.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (89.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (88.6 percent)
Live Cattle (40.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (25.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (61.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (50.0 percent)
Cotton (45.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (46.3 percent)
Cocoa (12.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (15.7 percent)
Wheat (14.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (18.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that most of the softs markets have cooled off following a strong start to the year. Lean Hogs with a six-week trend score of 36.9 percent leads the trends data for the soft commodity markets this week. Live Cattle (26.0 percent) and Soybean Meal (10.2 percent) follow next and are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. Sugar (-19.9 percent) leads with the largest downside trend score currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Corn (-15.0 percent), Soybeans (-14.7 percent) and Wheat (-14.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-15.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-22.8 percent)
Sugar (-19.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-26.4 percent)
Coffee (-12.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-19.1 percent)
Soybeans (-14.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-26.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-9.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-25.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.0 percent)
Live Cattle (26.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-4.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (36.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (30.1 percent)
Cotton (-12.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-18.4 percent)
Cocoa (-11.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-5.2 percent)
Wheat (-14.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-25.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 210,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,431 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	48.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	60.7	13.4
– Net Position:	210,786	-160,654	-50,132
– Gross Longs:	349,498	639,748	126,594
– Gross Shorts:	138,712	800,402	176,726
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	49.0	14.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	16.1	2.2

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 26,065 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,438 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	54.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	58.3	8.3
– Net Position:	26,065	-30,608	4,543
– Gross Longs:	174,128	416,052	68,341
– Gross Shorts:	148,063	446,660	63,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	62.3	13.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.9	19.4	-7.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,284 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	54.9	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	69.8	3.6
– Net Position:	30,453	-31,268	815
– Gross Longs:	46,419	114,888	8,350
– Gross Shorts:	15,966	146,156	7,535
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	40.9	7.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	14.4	-10.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 88,901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,527 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	54.0	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	64.8	10.6
– Net Position:	88,901	-62,971	-25,930
– Gross Longs:	148,533	315,133	35,744
– Gross Shorts:	59,632	378,104	61,674
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	64.7	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	13.1	7.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 31,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	56.1	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	65.1	5.5
– Net Position:	31,007	-35,972	4,965
– Gross Longs:	69,604	223,354	26,755
– Gross Shorts:	38,597	259,326	21,790
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.2	77.5	32.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	10.8	-12.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 112,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 109,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	40.2	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.8	73.5	5.5
– Net Position:	112,176	-135,196	23,020
– Gross Longs:	123,666	163,088	45,224
– Gross Shorts:	11,490	298,284	22,204
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.9	12.7	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-10.6	10.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 48,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	37.5	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	56.0	12.9
– Net Position:	48,582	-47,453	-1,129
– Gross Longs:	96,027	96,302	32,141
– Gross Shorts:	47,445	143,755	33,270
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.3	48.3	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.0	-27.9	-1.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 50,197 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,717 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	32.2	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	50.8	12.5
– Net Position:	50,197	-43,894	-6,303
– Gross Longs:	95,556	76,050	23,171
– Gross Shorts:	45,359	119,944	29,474
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	41.6	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.9	-43.2	13.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 36,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -940 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,163 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.9	46.6	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	67.4	5.0
– Net Position:	36,223	-39,006	2,783
– Gross Longs:	67,046	87,092	12,137
– Gross Shorts:	30,823	126,098	9,354
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.7	56.0	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.9	13.6	-17.4

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,957 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	47.3	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	46.6	3.7
– Net Position:	-5,562	2,152	3,410
– Gross Longs:	92,797	146,523	14,847
– Gross Shorts:	98,359	144,371	11,437
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	88.0	30.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	10.6	10.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -725 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	39.2	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	36.1	11.8
– Net Position:	-3,426	9,939	-6,513
– Gross Longs:	96,022	125,605	31,241
– Gross Shorts:	99,448	115,666	37,754
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.6	73.8	76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	16.8	-3.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing Soft Commodities

13 Aug

COT Week 32 Charts: Energy Speculators bets fall led by WTI Crude Oil, Gasoline & Brent

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 9nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT energy market speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (2,396 contracts) which was the only market this week showing increasing speculator bets.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-43,101 contracts) and Gasoline (-5,312 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (-1,429 contracts), Natural Gas (-446 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-33 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-09-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,570,131	0	210,651	0	-238,073	100	27,422	53
Gold	453,540	0	142,851	19	-154,554	83	11,703	1
Silver	141,093	8	2,879	9	-13,574	89	10,695	21
Copper	187,988	21	-28,477	22	27,700	78	777	30
Palladium	7,619	6	-1,970	12	2,044	86	-74	40
Platinum	62,782	26	846	9	-4,055	93	3,209	7
Natural Gas	969,582	3	-125,419	41	86,734	58	38,685	72
Brent	175,896	21	-34,211	54	32,411	47	1,800	34
Heating Oil	283,749	29	24,464	78	-36,472	32	12,008	40
Soybeans	583,208	2	88,901	41	-62,971	65	-25,930	27
Corn	1,317,913	1	210,786	57	-160,654	49	-50,132	14
Coffee	209,446	13	30,453	65	-31,268	41	815	7
Sugar	765,669	12	26,065	42	-30,608	62	4,543	13
Wheat	320,767	14	-3,426	15	9,939	74	-6,513	77

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Heating Oil (78.4 percent) remains the leader in energy market strength scores. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.1 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (53.8 percent) come in as the next highest energy markets in strength scores and both are above 50 percent or the midpoint of their 3-year ranges. On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is at the bottom of its 3-year range. Joining WTI in a bearish extreme position (below 20 percent) is Gasoline at a 17.5 percent score.

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (11.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (53.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (56.2 percent)
Natural Gas (40.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (41.1 percent)
Gasoline (17.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (22.9 percent)
Heating Oil (78.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (74.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (59.2 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (24.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (14.2 percent) and Gasoline (13.4 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data. WTI Crude Oil (-23.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores is the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.3 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-23.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-9.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (14.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (8.8 percent)
Natural Gas (1.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (1.8 percent)
Gasoline (13.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (19.5 percent)
Heating Oil (24.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (18.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-17.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 210,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -43,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 253,752 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.5	40.6	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	55.7	3.2
– Net Position:	210,651	-238,073	27,422
– Gross Longs:	338,172	636,980	76,995
– Gross Shorts:	127,521	875,053	49,573
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	52.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.5	24.3	-1.2

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -34,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	49.9	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.4	31.5	2.9
– Net Position:	-34,211	32,411	1,800
– Gross Longs:	31,578	87,846	6,819
– Gross Shorts:	65,789	55,435	5,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.8	47.2	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-15.0	7.5

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -125,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -124,973 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	41.7	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	32.7	3.0
– Net Position:	-125,419	86,734	38,685
– Gross Longs:	169,972	404,077	67,512
– Gross Shorts:	295,391	317,343	28,827
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	58.2	71.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-1.3	0.2

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 45,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,818 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	48.8	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	68.8	5.7
– Net Position:	45,506	-50,254	4,748
– Gross Longs:	74,516	122,093	18,926
– Gross Shorts:	29,010	172,347	14,178
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	83.1	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-7.5	-37.3

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	52.6	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	65.5	10.2
– Net Position:	24,464	-36,472	12,008
– Gross Longs:	45,620	149,372	40,817
– Gross Shorts:	21,156	185,844	28,809
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.4	32.4	39.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.9	-11.4	-21.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -33 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	74.0	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	55.7	0.2
– Net Position:	-12,656	12,375	281
– Gross Longs:	16,115	49,878	386
– Gross Shorts:	28,771	37,503	105
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.1	40.9	20.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.3	20.5	-1.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News investing

13 Aug

COT Week 32 Charts: Stock Market Speculator bets rise led by MSCI EAFE, Russell 2000 & Dow Jones

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT stock market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had decreasing spec contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was the MSCI EAFE Mini (8,666 contracts) and the Russell 2000 Mini (7,087 contracts) with the Dow Jones Mini (5,711 contracts), VIX (643 contracts) and Nikkei 225 USD (375 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The stock markets leading the declines this week were the S&P500 Mini (-12,376 contracts) and the Nasdaq Mini (-3,637 contracts) with falling speculator bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-09-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,299,388	8	-244,261	11	312,241	100	-67,980	12
Nikkei 225	14,297	10	-4,260	57	3,462	47	798	38
Nasdaq-Mini	258,784	47	21,075	87	-1,167	26	-19,908	8
DowJones-Mini	75,394	35	-12,710	21	17,168	82	-4,458	15
VIX	341,699	39	-98,195	60	103,104	39	-4,909	68
Nikkei 225 Yen	59,192	42	7,655	58	23,075	84	-30,730	11

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq-Mini (86.8 percent) continues to lead stocks and remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). The VIX (60.1 percent) and the Nikkei USD (57.2 percent) come in as the next highest stock markets in strength scores. On the downside, the Russell 2000-Mini (4.0 percent), the S&P500-Mini (10.9 percent) and the EAFE-Mini (11.7 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores currently and are all in bearish extreme speculator levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (60.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (59.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (10.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (13.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (21.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (13.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (86.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (88.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (4.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (57.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (11.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (1.9 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the DowJones-Mini (16.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for stocks and is the only positive mover in the data. The VIX (-24.3 percent), the EAFE-Mini (-23.6 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (-19.5 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently. The data shows that overall, the speculators have had a bearish tilt over that past six weeks.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-24.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-24.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-19.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-21.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (16.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (9.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-1.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-3.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-4.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-8.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-12.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-14.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-23.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-35.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -98,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 643 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	60.9	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	30.7	8.8
– Net Position:	-98,195	103,104	-4,909
– Gross Longs:	41,377	208,085	25,269
– Gross Shorts:	139,572	104,981	30,178
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.1	39.3	67.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	22.6	11.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -244,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -231,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	77.6	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	64.1	12.5
– Net Position:	-244,261	312,241	-67,980
– Gross Longs:	227,064	1,785,298	218,709
– Gross Shorts:	471,325	1,473,057	286,689
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.9	100.0	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.5	21.1	-8.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	59.1	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	36.3	19.7
– Net Position:	-12,710	17,168	-4,458
– Gross Longs:	20,008	44,527	10,357
– Gross Shorts:	32,718	27,359	14,815
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.4	82.0	14.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-16.8	0.8

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 21,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,637 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	57.8	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	58.3	19.4
– Net Position:	21,075	-1,167	-19,908
– Gross Longs:	73,939	149,705	30,221
– Gross Shorts:	52,864	150,872	50,129
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.8	25.8	7.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	11.5	-32.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -112,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -119,954 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	89.8	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	68.2	4.4
– Net Position:	-112,867	117,463	-4,596
– Gross Longs:	28,422	488,823	19,479
– Gross Shorts:	141,289	371,360	24,075
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.0	96.6	13.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	3.9	2.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -4,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	56.1	27.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.7	31.9	21.9
– Net Position:	-4,260	3,462	798
– Gross Longs:	2,278	8,017	3,922
– Gross Shorts:	6,538	4,555	3,124
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.2	47.0	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	6.8	16.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -22,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,514 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	92.4	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	87.1	1.4
– Net Position:	-22,848	20,497	2,351
– Gross Longs:	19,817	362,255	7,872
– Gross Shorts:	42,665	341,758	5,521
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.7	93.2	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.6	24.6	-1.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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06 Aug

Currency Speculators trim Japanese Yen bearish bets while Brazilian Real bets fall into bearish level

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets recorded lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was Japanese yen (18,728 contracts) with the Mexican peso (6,845 contracts), the Canadian dollar (4,508 contracts), the Euro (2,773 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (2,613 contracts) also making gains on the week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Brazilian real (-12,842 contracts) and Australian dollar (-8,565 contracts) with the British pound sterling (-2,419 contracts), the Swiss franc (-2,009 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,188 contracts) and Bitcoin (-460 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the currency markets data this week was the rebound in the Japanese yen speculator bets. Yen bets jumped by +18,728 contracts this week which marks the highest positive change of the past seven weeks. The yen bets have been in an overall bearish level since March of 2021 with a recent bearish high on April 12th at a total of -111,827 contracts and were as high as -102,309 contracts on May 17th before speculators started to pare their bearish bets. Since May, the speculator positioning has improved by approximately 60,000 net contracts and has pushed the overall speculator position to the least bearish level since June 8th of 2021, a span of sixty weeks.

Brazilian Real speculator bets declined this week by over -12,000 contracts and the overall positioning dropped into a new bearish level at -1,130 contracts. This is the first bearish net position since February 1st, a span of the past twenty-six weeks. The decline in Real positions has happened fast and furious as speculator positions hit record high bullish levels in early March above +50,000 contracts and were as high as +44,345 contracts on June 21st. Since June 14th, speculator bets have fallen in five out of the past seven weeks for a total decline of -48,343 contracts over that time and erasing the bullish spec position.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-02-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	57,054	82	39,347	91	-42,159	9	2,812	47
EUR	683,883	75	-38,811	23	15,520	80	23,291	13
GBP	226,987	61	-56,409	30	72,577	74	-16,168	22
JPY	236,737	80	-42,753	43	50,254	60	-7,501	38
CHF	45,874	33	-13,308	23	23,279	81	-9,971	24
CAD	145,914	27	20,277	62	-30,407	43	10,130	50
AUD	167,931	58	-55,950	33	62,124	65	-6,174	37
NZD	45,274	34	-1,573	69	4,858	38	-3,285	14
MXN	192,971	46	-23,053	18	20,696	81	2,357	53
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	21,194	1	-1,130	49	-561	51	1,691	85
Bitcoin	12,849	72	-581	70	244	0	337	21

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Dollar Index (90.6 percent) continued to lead the strength scores although it came down a bit from last week (92.5 percent) but still remains in a bullish extreme level. Bitcoin (69.7 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (68.6 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (62.1 percent) come in as the next highest in the currency markets for strength scores. On the downside, the Mexican Peso (17.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent). The Swiss Franc (22.8 percent), the Euro (23.1 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (29.9 percent) round out the next weakest strength scores this week.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (90.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (92.5 percent)
EuroFX (23.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (29.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (31.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (42.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (31.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (27.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (62.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (57.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (33.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (68.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (64.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (17.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.6 percent)
Brazil Real (49.3 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (61.9 percent)
Bitcoin (69.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (78.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Canadian Dollar (18.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (9.7 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (6.5 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (5.2 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data. The Brazil Real (-44.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Bitcoin (-29.6 percent), the Swiss Franc (-15.6 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-14.2 percent) followed by the US Dollar Index (-9.4 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-9.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-6.6 percent)
EuroFX (-7.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-10.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (8.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (9.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (5.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-15.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-11.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (18.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-8.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (-14.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-3.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (1.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-1.5 percent)
Brazil Real (-44.7 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-34.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-29.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-21.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 39,347 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,535 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.0	4.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	78.8	4.1
– Net Position:	39,347	-42,159	2,812
– Gross Longs:	47,918	2,807	5,128
– Gross Shorts:	8,571	44,966	2,316
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.6 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.6	8.8	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	7.3	11.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -38,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	57.3	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	55.0	8.7
– Net Position:	-38,811	15,520	23,291
– Gross Longs:	191,692	391,841	82,466
– Gross Shorts:	230,503	376,321	59,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	80.4	13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	9.6	-17.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -56,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	75.8	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	43.8	15.6
– Net Position:	-56,409	72,577	-16,168
– Gross Longs:	29,305	171,966	19,191
– Gross Shorts:	85,714	99,389	35,359
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	73.9	22.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-3.2	-3.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -42,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 18,728 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	66.5	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.4	45.2	13.9
– Net Position:	-42,753	50,254	-7,501
– Gross Longs:	50,433	157,333	25,358
– Gross Shorts:	93,186	107,079	32,859
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	60.2	38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-11.8	17.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,299 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	63.4	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.8	12.6	40.2
– Net Position:	-13,308	23,279	-9,971
– Gross Longs:	8,170	29,075	8,457
– Gross Shorts:	21,478	5,796	18,428
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	5.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.8	80.6	23.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	13.3	-7.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.1	40.7	24.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	61.5	17.3
– Net Position:	20,277	-30,407	10,130
– Gross Longs:	48,342	59,355	35,393
– Gross Shorts:	28,065	89,762	25,263
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.1	43.4	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.2	-19.9	15.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,950 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	68.6	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.7	31.6	14.3
– Net Position:	-55,950	62,124	-6,174
– Gross Longs:	30,835	115,141	17,863
– Gross Shorts:	86,785	53,017	24,037
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.0	65.2	37.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	13.1	-5.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,573 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	56.1	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	45.4	13.0
– Net Position:	-1,573	4,858	-3,285
– Gross Longs:	16,521	25,420	2,620
– Gross Shorts:	18,094	20,562	5,905
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.6	37.9	13.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.5	-6.0	0.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,053 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,845 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.6	44.0	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.5	33.3	1.8
– Net Position:	-23,053	20,696	2,357
– Gross Longs:	101,415	84,884	5,777
– Gross Shorts:	124,468	64,188	3,420
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	81.4	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-1.0	-6.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.8	35.4	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.2	38.0	6.7
– Net Position:	-1,130	-561	1,691
– Gross Longs:	10,562	7,500	3,115
– Gross Shorts:	11,692	8,061	1,424
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.3	50.7	84.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.7	44.3	0.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.8	5.9	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.3	4.0	5.8
– Net Position:	-581	244	337
– Gross Longs:	9,740	754	1,085
– Gross Shorts:	10,321	510	748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.7	71.9	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.6	71.9	8.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

06 Aug

Precious Metals Speculator bets gain as Gold & Silver positions rebound from multi-year lows

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: COT Week 31

COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while only one market recorded lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (31,636 contracts) with Silver (5,474 contracts), Platinum (1,927 contracts) and Palladium (848 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The only metals markets with a weekly decline in speculator bets this week was Copper with a shortfall of -844 contracts.

Highlighting the metals markets data this week was a rebound in the Gold speculator bets. The speculative position for Gold Futures jumped this week by over +30,000 contracts and halted a streak of five straight weeks of declines. Speculator bets had dropped by a total of -70,597 contracts over the previous five weeks and those declines had brought the overall bullish position to a total of just +92,690 contracts. This marked the lowest overall speculator standing in the past one hundred and sixty-five weeks, dating back to May 28th of 2019 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic panic. This week’s rebound brings the overall total back above the +120,000 contract level for the first time in four weeks. Gold futures prices have risen back around the $1,800 level after dropping to approximately $1,680 on July 21st.

Silver bets also had a rebound this week by over +5,000 contracts and put a stop to a five-week slide in speculator bets (total decline of -22,919 contracts). Silver’s positioning has been extremely weak in recent months and had fallen in thirteen out of the previous fourteen weeks through last week. This week’s rebound brought the overall Silver position out of a net bearish level after falling into a bearish position for the first time since June 4th of 2019, a span of 164 weeks. Silver futures prices, meanwhile, ended the week just below the important psychological $20 level after spending a few weeks falling hitting lows down near the $18 level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-02-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,606,910	3	253,752	0	-272,866	100	19,114	42
Gold	459,649	2	124,326	12	-135,565	90	11,239	0
Silver	136,267	3	974	7	-9,064	93	8,090	8
Copper	184,441	16	-27,406	23	27,672	78	-266	24
Palladium	6,945	3	-2,560	8	2,743	90	-183	33
Platinum	68,266	36	-2,541	5	-1,708	96	4,249	21
Natural Gas	984,570	5	-124,973	41	87,596	58	37,377	69
Brent	171,751	17	-32,782	56	31,835	46	947	22
Heating Oil	276,520	26	22,068	75	-35,389	34	13,321	44
Soybeans	572,925	0	92,527	42	-65,632	64	-26,895	26
Corn	1,347,894	6	201,355	56	-149,434	51	-51,921	13
Coffee	207,740	12	27,284	62	-27,968	44	684	6
Sugar	760,093	11	34,438	44	-35,229	61	791	9
Wheat	316,244	12	-725	18	10,888	75	-10,163	58

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Copper (22.6 percent) continues to lead the metals although with a low score that is just outside an extreme bearish position (below 20 percent). Gold (12.1 percent), Palladium (8.4 percent), Silver (6.6 percent) and Platinum (4.6 percent) all have strength scores that remain in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent) but all of these markets have improving scores compared to last week.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (12.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.0 percent)
Silver (6.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (0.0 percent)
Copper (22.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (23.2 percent)
Platinum (4.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (2.0 percent)
Palladium (8.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Palladium (8.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week and is the only market currently with a positive six-week trend score. Silver (-21.2 percent) and Gold (-14.9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently followed by Platinum (-5.5 percent) and Copper (-4.7 percent).

Move Statistics:
Gold (-14.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (-23.7 percent)
Silver (-21.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-22.5 percent)
Copper (-4.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-9.2 percent)
Platinum (-5.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-9.1 percent)
Palladium (8.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 124,326 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 31,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.7	27.8	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	57.3	5.7
– Net Position:	124,326	-135,565	11,239
– Gross Longs:	242,128	127,700	37,481
– Gross Shorts:	117,802	263,265	26,242
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.1	90.2	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	18.5	-33.9

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.1	40.8	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.4	47.4	10.4
– Net Position:	974	-9,064	8,090
– Gross Longs:	49,220	55,536	22,198
– Gross Shorts:	48,246	64,600	14,108
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	93.5	8.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.2	18.5	-3.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,406 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	45.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	30.8	7.4
– Net Position:	-27,406	27,672	-266
– Gross Longs:	50,317	84,447	13,430
– Gross Shorts:	77,723	56,775	13,696
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.6	78.5	23.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	6.0	-13.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	38.9	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.7	41.4	5.0
– Net Position:	-2,541	-1,708	4,249
– Gross Longs:	28,648	26,551	7,673
– Gross Shorts:	31,189	28,259	3,424
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	96.2	21.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	6.1	-9.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 848 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,408 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	63.4	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.8	23.9	17.8
– Net Position:	-2,560	2,743	-183
– Gross Longs:	965	4,400	1,051
– Gross Shorts:	3,525	1,657	1,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.4	90.1	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-9.9	16.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog investing Metals Opinions

06 Aug

Bonds Speculators bets drop this week led by Fed Funds, Eurodollar & 10-Year Bond

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: COT Week 31

COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as all eight of the bond markets we cover recorded declining speculative bets on the week.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator positions were the Fed Funds (-149,893 contracts) and the Eurodollar (-102,744 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (-95,630 contracts), the 5-Year Bond (-20,772 contracts), the 2-Year Bond (-9,604 contracts), the Long US Bond (-9,408 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (-5,365 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-1,854 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-02-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,609,609	15	-2,786,683	2	3,137,692	97	-351,009	27
FedFunds	1,540,437	44	-2,725	39	14,197	62	-11,472	31
2-Year	2,058,442	12	-99,468	62	182,725	60	-83,257	14
Long T-Bond	1,172,815	40	-56,053	66	43,323	26	12,730	63
10-Year	3,540,076	32	-295,490	28	382,617	67	-87,127	59
5-Year	3,935,263	48	-335,945	24	430,656	66	-94,711	55

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (66.3 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (62.2 percent) lead the bonds markets strength positions and are the only two markets above their midpoint positions (above 50 percent) over the past three-year range.

On the downside, the Eurodollar (1.6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is joined in an extreme bearish level (below 20 percent) by the Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.4 percent). The 5-Year Bond (24.3 percent), the 10-Year Bond (27.5 percent) and the Fed Funds (39.3 percent) come in as the next lowest strength scores this week.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (39.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (57.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (62.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (64.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (24.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (27.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (27.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (42.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (20.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (66.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (69.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (41.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (42.3 percent)
Eurodollar (1.6 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (3.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The 2-Year Bond (4.0 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data. The 5-Year Bond (-40.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Fed Funds (-15.7 percent), the Eurodollar (-14.6 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (-12.0 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-15.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (4.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (4.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-40.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-21.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (-10.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (13.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-12.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-2.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.5 percent)
Eurodollar (-14.6 percent) vs Eurodollar (-15.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,786,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -102,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,683,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.1	72.0	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	39.3	7.7
– Net Position:	-2,786,683	3,137,692	-351,009
– Gross Longs:	391,755	6,915,941	392,620
– Gross Shorts:	3,178,438	3,778,249	743,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.6	97.1	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	13.9	1.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -149,893 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 147,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	75.3	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	74.3	2.9
– Net Position:	-2,725	14,197	-11,472
– Gross Longs:	153,948	1,159,508	33,605
– Gross Shorts:	156,673	1,145,311	45,077
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	61.6	30.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	17.0	-31.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -99,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	79.9	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	71.0	11.1
– Net Position:	-99,468	182,725	-83,257
– Gross Longs:	236,803	1,644,805	144,664
– Gross Shorts:	336,271	1,462,080	227,921
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.2	59.8	13.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-5.0	1.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -335,945 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -315,173 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	82.1	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	71.2	10.5
– Net Position:	-335,945	430,656	-94,711
– Gross Longs:	327,896	3,232,238	317,840
– Gross Shorts:	663,841	2,801,582	412,551
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.3	65.8	54.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.7	17.2	24.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -295,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -95,630 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -199,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	80.5	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	69.6	12.4
– Net Position:	-295,490	382,617	-87,127
– Gross Longs:	239,438	2,848,101	351,703
– Gross Shorts:	534,928	2,465,484	438,830
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.5	67.3	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	-2.6	21.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -36,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,926 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.7	82.7	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	69.6	21.6
– Net Position:	-36,291	152,427	-116,136
– Gross Longs:	54,793	966,321	136,755
– Gross Shorts:	91,084	813,894	252,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.4	79.4	49.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.1	-15.5	21.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -56,053 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	78.0	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	74.3	13.0
– Net Position:	-56,053	43,323	12,730
– Gross Longs:	83,261	915,066	164,718
– Gross Shorts:	139,314	871,743	151,988
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	26.1	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	1.9	24.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -352,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,854 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -350,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.7	84.6	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	61.2	8.1
– Net Position:	-352,115	307,877	44,238
– Gross Longs:	48,880	1,114,434	150,939
– Gross Shorts:	400,995	806,557	106,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.6	65.6	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	-4.4	11.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing

06 Aug

COT Week 31 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets rose higher this week led by Corn & Soybean Oil

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT soft commodities speculator bets were mostly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets recorded lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (14,827 contracts) with Soybean Oil (9,351 contracts), Soybeans (7,286 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,296 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,269 contracts) and Live Cattle (962 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-29,665 contracts) and Cocoa (-5,365 contracts) with Cotton (-2,035 contracts), Coffee (-1,357 contracts) and Wheat (-750 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-02-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,606,910	3	253,752	0	-272,866	100	19,114	42
Gold	459,649	2	124,326	12	-135,565	90	11,239	0
Silver	136,267	3	974	7	-9,064	93	8,090	8
Copper	184,441	16	-27,406	23	27,672	78	-266	24
Palladium	6,945	3	-2,560	8	2,743	90	-183	33
Platinum	68,266	36	-2,541	5	-1,708	96	4,249	21
Natural Gas	984,570	5	-124,973	41	87,596	58	37,377	69
Brent	171,751	17	-32,782	56	31,835	46	947	22
Heating Oil	276,520	26	22,068	75	-35,389	34	13,321	44
Soybeans	572,925	0	92,527	42	-65,632	64	-26,895	26
Corn	1,347,894	6	201,355	56	-149,434	51	-51,921	13
Coffee	207,740	12	27,284	62	-27,968	44	684	6
Sugar	760,093	11	34,438	44	-35,229	61	791	9
Wheat	316,244	12	-725	18	10,888	75	-10,163	58

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (88.6 percent) leads the soft commodity markets currently – up from last week (86.8 percent) and remaining in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Coffee (62.4 percent), Corn (55.8 percent) and Lean Hogs (50.0 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets and all are above the midpoint (50 percent) of their three-year ranges. On the downside, Cocoa (15.7 percent) and Wheat (18.1 percent) come in at the weakest strength levels currently and are both in extreme bearish readings (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (55.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (53.9 percent)
Sugar (43.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (49.8 percent)
Coffee (62.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (63.6 percent)
Soybeans (42.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (40.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (23.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (17.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (88.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (86.8 percent)
Live Cattle (25.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (24.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (50.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (45.3 percent)
Cotton (46.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (47.6 percent)
Cocoa (15.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (21.0 percent)
Wheat (18.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Lean Hogs (30.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets. Soybean Meal (8.0 percent) comes in as the only other positive mover in the latest trends data and this, overall, shows the weakening sentiment for soft commodity speculators over the past six weeks after starting the year with strong bullish sentiment. On the downside, Sugar (-26.4 percent) leads the negative trend scores currently with Soybeans (-26.1 percent), Wheat (-25.8 percent) and Soybean Oil (-25.6 percent) following as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-22.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (-27.2 percent)
Sugar (-26.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-21.9 percent)
Coffee (-19.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-15.8 percent)
Soybeans (-26.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-29.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (-25.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-36.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (9.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (30.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (30.5 percent)
Cotton (-18.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-17.3 percent)
Cocoa (-5.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (6.6 percent)
Wheat (-25.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-26.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 201,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	48.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	59.1	13.0
– Net Position:	201,355	-149,434	-51,921
– Gross Longs:	346,483	647,342	123,650
– Gross Shorts:	145,128	796,776	175,571
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.8	50.6	13.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.8	25.2	1.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,103 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	53.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	57.7	8.5
– Net Position:	34,438	-35,229	791
– Gross Longs:	182,484	403,319	65,198
– Gross Shorts:	148,046	438,548	64,407
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.7	61.5	8.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.4	27.7	-21.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,284 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,641 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	54.7	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	68.2	3.6
– Net Position:	27,284	-27,968	684
– Gross Longs:	44,520	113,679	8,153
– Gross Shorts:	17,236	141,647	7,469
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	43.9	5.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	22.1	-21.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 92,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	54.0	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	65.5	11.1
– Net Position:	92,527	-65,632	-26,895
– Gross Longs:	146,533	309,594	36,964
– Gross Shorts:	54,006	375,226	63,859
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.3	63.9	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.1	26.1	-2.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	57.6	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	66.1	6.2
– Net Position:	30,381	-31,605	1,224
– Gross Longs:	67,218	215,402	24,405
– Gross Shorts:	36,837	247,007	23,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	80.3	18.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.6	29.0	-34.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 109,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,507 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	39.9	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.4	73.4	6.1
– Net Position:	109,776	-132,172	22,396
– Gross Longs:	119,342	157,419	46,629
– Gross Shorts:	9,566	289,591	24,233
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.6	14.2	49.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-6.4	-10.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,927 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.3	39.2	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	53.9	12.4
– Net Position:	36,889	-37,027	138
– Gross Longs:	88,545	98,150	31,097
– Gross Shorts:	51,656	135,177	30,959
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.6	62.6	82.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	2.2	5.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,717 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	34.3	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	48.8	13.1
– Net Position:	39,717	-31,860	-7,857
– Gross Longs:	86,616	75,563	20,898
– Gross Shorts:	46,899	107,423	28,755
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	55.8	55.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.1	-34.1	6.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.0	47.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	68.0	5.1
– Net Position:	37,163	-38,884	1,721
– Gross Longs:	67,401	88,600	11,339
– Gross Shorts:	30,238	127,484	9,618
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	56.1	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.4	20.1	-31.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,408 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	45.6	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	45.6	3.5
– Net Position:	-1,957	64	1,893
– Gross Longs:	92,787	144,155	12,923
– Gross Shorts:	94,744	144,091	11,030
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	86.0	15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	4.8	3.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	40.4	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	37.0	12.1
– Net Position:	-725	10,888	-10,163
– Gross Longs:	95,807	127,784	27,981
– Gross Shorts:	96,532	116,896	38,144
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.1	75.2	57.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.8	37.4	-33.8

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Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

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