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Euro Currency bets continue to decline while US Dollar Index Speculator positions bounced back

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian dollar (3,162 contracts) and the British pound sterling (1,839 contracts) while the New Zealand dollar (1,612 contracts), the Japanese yen (773 contracts), the US Dollar Index (715 contracts) and the Brazilian real (270 contracts) also had higher speculator bets for the week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Euro (-17,501 contracts) and Mexican peso (-7,522 contracts) with the Swiss franc (-2,188 contracts), the Australian dollar (-1,548 contracts) and Bitcoin (-335 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the currencies data is the Euro’s continued decline in speculator bets. The Euro’s speculator positioning declined for the third straight week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks which has taken off a total of -95,017 contracts from the speculator standing in that seven-week period. This decline has quickly taken the Euro speculator contracts from +52,272 contracts on May 31st to a total of -42,745 contracts this week. The EURUSD’s spot price this week had a modest bounce-back following a three-week decline and a dip below parity with the US Dollar last week. The EURUSD currency pair closed the week near the 1.0215 spot exchange rate after gaining by approximately 1.25 percent for the week.

The US Dollar Index speculator bets, meanwhile, rose this week for the first time in the past four weeks and remain near the top of their speculative range. Dollar speculators had taken a total of -6,656 contracts off the bullish position in the previous three weeks and pulled the net bullish position below +40,000 contracts for the first time since June 28th before this week’s small rebound. Speculators have been uber-bullish recently on the dollar and the past four months has seen a strong surge to the upside. Since April, the US Dollar Index price has been higher in twelve out of fifteen weeks and culminated with the highest DXY price in approximately twenty years above 109.00. The dollar strength has been punishing the other major currencies as the Euro and Yen have hit multi-decade lows (versus the USD) with the US Federal Reserve sharply raising interest rates to combat inflation. The Dollar Index spot price cooled off this week by approximately 1.30 percent and closed around the 106.50 exchange rate.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-19-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	59,214	87	39,069	90	-41,500	10	2,431	43
EUR	694,106	80	-42,745	22	17,430	81	25,315	16
GBP	228,051	56	-57,250	33	70,299	71	-13,049	29
JPY	229,449	75	-59,225	32	73,082	71	-13,857	25
CHF	41,855	25	-10,912	29	19,205	74	-8,293	29
CAD	142,216	25	6,667	47	-8,746	61	2,079	34
AUD	155,246	49	-43,148	45	49,276	56	-6,128	37
NZD	45,467	35	-3,671	65	7,227	42	-3,556	11
MXN	196,123	47	-30,760	14	27,890	84	2,870	55
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	42,452	30	10,475	61	-11,580	40	1,105	78
Bitcoin	14,512	84	-506	71	-66	0	572	26

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (90.1 percent) leads the currency markets once again and remains in a bullish extreme position. Bitcoin (71.1 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (65.1 percent) and the Brazilian Real (60.7 percent) come in as the next highest in strength scores – also for a second straight week. On the downside, the Mexican Peso (14.2 percent) remains the currency with the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the EuroFX (21.9 percent) which is quickly getting more bearish by the week.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (90.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (88.9 percent)
EuroFX (21.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (27.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (32.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (31.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (32.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (31.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (28.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (34.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (46.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (43.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (44.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (46.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (65.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (62.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (17.4 percent)
Brazil Real (60.7 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (60.4 percent)
Russian Ruble (31.2 percent) vs Russian Ruble previous week (31.9 percent)
Bitcoin (71.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (77.2 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the New Zealand Dollar (27.0 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (20.0 percent) and the Swiss Franc (13.2 percent) fill out the top movers in the trends data. The Brazilian Real (-35.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the EuroFX (-28.6 percent) followed by the Mexican Peso (-27.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (1.4 percent)
EuroFX (-28.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-23.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (9.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (10.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (20.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (21.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (29.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (8.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (11.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (6.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (27.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (22.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-27.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-25.0 percent)
Brazil Real (-35.6 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-34.5 percent)
Russian Ruble (-15.6 percent) vs Russian Ruble previous week (9.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-18.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-10.4 percent)

Individual Market Charts:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week rose to a net position of 39,069 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance by 715 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.8	4.9	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	74.9	4.5
– Net Position:	39,069	-41,500	2,431
– Gross Longs:	50,234	2,873	5,069
– Gross Shorts:	11,165	44,373	2,638
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.1	9.9	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	0.6	-16.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -42,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a sharp weekly drop of -17,501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,244 net contracts.

The current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	57.3	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	54.8	8.3
– Net Position:	-42,745	17,430	25,315
– Gross Longs:	195,875	397,991	82,676
– Gross Shorts:	238,620	380,561	57,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	81.0	16.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	30.0	-20.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,839 contracts from last week’s total of -59,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	74.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	43.7	14.4
– Net Position:	-57,250	70,299	-13,049
– Gross Longs:	31,943	170,053	19,882
– Gross Shorts:	89,193	99,754	32,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.8	71.3	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-6.0	-7.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,998 net contracts.

The current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	69.0	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.5	37.2	16.7
– Net Position:	-59,225	73,082	-13,857
– Gross Longs:	42,880	158,427	24,496
– Gross Shorts:	102,105	85,345	38,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.4	71.3	25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.0	-17.6	7.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,724 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	59.7	23.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	13.9	43.3
– Net Position:	-10,912	19,205	-8,293
– Gross Longs:	6,948	25,008	9,819
– Gross Shorts:	17,860	5,803	18,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.8	74.1	29.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-12.8	9.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,505 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	47.1	22.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	53.3	20.6
– Net Position:	6,667	-8,746	2,079
– Gross Longs:	42,040	67,038	31,391
– Gross Shorts:	35,373	75,784	29,312
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.8	61.4	34.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	3.9	-24.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -43,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,600 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	66.0	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.5	34.3	15.2
– Net Position:	-43,148	49,276	-6,128
– Gross Longs:	30,578	102,518	17,420
– Gross Shorts:	73,726	53,242	23,548
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	55.6	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	1.4	-16.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	59.2	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	43.3	13.2
– Net Position:	-3,671	7,227	-3,556
– Gross Longs:	15,791	26,905	2,444
– Gross Shorts:	19,462	19,678	6,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	41.5	10.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.0	-23.8	-7.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -30,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,238 net contracts.

The current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.0	46.6	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.6	32.4	1.6
– Net Position:	-30,760	27,890	2,870
– Gross Longs:	97,965	91,458	5,972
– Gross Shorts:	128,725	63,568	3,102
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.2	84.4	55.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.1	27.5	-10.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,205 net contracts.

The current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.5	43.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	71.0	4.7
– Net Position:	10,475	-11,580	1,105
– Gross Longs:	20,600	18,569	3,092
– Gross Shorts:	10,125	30,149	1,987
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	40.0	77.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.6	36.5	-13.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -171 net contracts.

The current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.2	3.5	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.7	4.0	5.4
– Net Position:	-506	-66	572
– Gross Longs:	10,909	514	1,360
– Gross Shorts:	11,415	580	788
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	53.9	25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	26.9	12.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

23 Jul

COT Week 29 Charts: Precious Metals Speculator bets continue weakness led by Gold & Silver

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT precious metals speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Copper (2,459 contracts) with Platinum (1,629 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-23,166 contracts) and XX with Silver (-1,844 contracts) and Palladium (-949 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the metals data this week is the continued decline in speculator bets for Gold. Positioning has been down for four straight weeks and in five out of the past six weeks, taking a total of -80,313 contracts off the bullish position in the past six weeks. This weakness has dropped the Gold bullish position to below the +100,000 net contract level for the first time since May 28th of 2019, a span of 164 weeks. Gold prices, meanwhile, have shaved off about $300 from the highs in March but have recently found support near the $1,700 price-point.

Silver positions have been falling in a similar fashion and have now declined for the past four straight weeks. Positioning has also been lower in eleven out of the past thirteen weeks with a total drop of -45,069 contracts over that time-frame. The current speculator standing is at just +1,360 contracts and is dangerously close to going negative for the first time since June of 2019. Silver spot prices in the past two weeks have dipped to the lowest levels since July of 2020 right near the major price level of $18.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-19-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,577,616	0	271,091	1	-293,689	100	22,598	47
Gold	524,786	21	94,955	0	-112,262	100	17,307	0
Silver	145,247	12	1,360	0	-8,213	100	6,853	2
Copper	174,592	8	-23,836	25	23,745	76	91	26
Palladium	6,915	3	-3,751	2	4,302	99	-551	12
Platinum	75,069	47	-4,282	2	-273	98	4,555	26
Natural Gas	953,325	0	-120,323	42	86,699	58	33,624	60
Brent	177,889	22	-41,302	42	40,843	61	459	15
Heating Oil	267,576	22	9,243	56	-23,800	46	14,557	49
Soybeans	602,987	0	102,593	45	-74,427	61	-28,166	23
Corn	1,308,458	0	209,940	57	-165,611	48	-44,329	18
Coffee	196,041	3	27,979	63	-28,026	44	47	0
Sugar	703,614	0	127,162	63	-141,842	41	14,680	26
Wheat	292,700	2	6,522	28	3,173	64	-9,695	60

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Copper (25.2 percent) leads the metals again this week but is itself in a very weak position (just above the 20 percent extreme bearish level). All the other metals markets are in extreme bearish levels as has been the case for multiple weeks. Platinum (2.2 percent), Palladium (1.7 percent), Gold (0.0 percent) and Silver (0.0 percent) round out the rest of the strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (0.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (9.0 percent)
Silver (0.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.4 percent)
Copper (25.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (23.4 percent)
Platinum (2.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.0 percent)
Palladium (1.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) illustrate how weak the metals category has been as all the metals have negative strength trends over the past six weeks. Gold (-31.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Silver (-21.0 percent) followed by Copper (-14.5 percent), Platinum (-13.9 percent) and Palladium (-1.6 percent).

Move Statistics:
Gold (-31.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (-21.1 percent)
Silver (-21.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.1 percent)
Copper (-14.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-6.0 percent)
Platinum (-13.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.3 percent)
Palladium (-1.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 94,955 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -23,166 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 118,121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.9	29.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	50.4	5.0
– Net Position:	94,955	-112,262	17,307
– Gross Longs:	241,004	152,103	43,294
– Gross Shorts:	146,049	264,365	25,987
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.0	32.1	-24.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,204 net contracts.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	40.2	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	45.9	10.1
– Net Position:	1,360	-8,213	6,853
– Gross Longs:	56,187	58,430	21,517
– Gross Shorts:	54,827	66,643	14,664
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	2.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.0	21.4	-18.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,836 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,459 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	49.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	35.9	8.3
– Net Position:	-23,836	23,745	91
– Gross Longs:	52,000	86,505	14,616
– Gross Shorts:	75,836	62,760	14,525
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.2	75.8	25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	15.7	-15.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.9	37.7	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.6	38.1	4.9
– Net Position:	-4,282	-273	4,555
– Gross Longs:	32,960	28,338	8,241
– Gross Shorts:	37,242	28,611	3,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.2	98.1	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	12.2	10.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,802 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	76.5	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.0	14.3	20.6
– Net Position:	-3,751	4,302	-551
– Gross Longs:	676	5,288	875
– Gross Shorts:	4,427	986	1,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	5.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.7	98.8	12.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	4.0	-24.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog investing Metals Opinions

23 Jul

COT Week 29 Charts: Bonds Speculators bets mixed led by Eurodollar, 5-Year & Long Treasury Bond

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT bond market speculator bets were mixed evenly this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (80,661 contracts) with the 5-Year Bond (33,108 contracts), the Fed Funds Futures (32,523 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (1,516 contracts) also showing positive changes for the week.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Long US Bond (-18,884 contracts) with the Ultra US Bond (-17,487 contracts) coming in a close second while the Ultra 10-Year (-8,368 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (-333 contracts) also saw lower speculator bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-19-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,390,825	11	-2,643,905	4	2,937,912	94	-294,007	40
FedFunds	1,769,139	59	113,578	54	-105,032	47	-8,546	38
2-Year	2,079,265	13	-63,053	70	141,849	51	-78,796	16
Long T-Bond	1,182,312	44	-42,102	71	23,004	19	19,098	68
10-Year	3,431,246	25	-108,704	56	172,612	42	-63,908	64
5-Year	3,916,097	47	-258,015	38	400,930	62	-142,915	42

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (70.9 percent) continues to lead the bonds category in sentiment. The 2-Year Bond (69.5 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores followed by the 10-Year Bond (55.9 percent) and the Fed Funds (53.6 percent). On the downside, the Eurodollar (4.3 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are both in bearish extreme standings this week (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are seen in the 5-Year Bond (37.9 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (44.1 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (53.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (49.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (69.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (69.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (37.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (32.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (55.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (56.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (21.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (70.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (77.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (44.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (51.3 percent)
Eurodollar (4.3 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (2.8 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the 10-Year Bond (23.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds currently. The 2-Year Bond (21.7 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (10.4 percent) and the Fed Funds (7.3 percent) fill out the rest of the positive movers in the latest trends data. The US Treasury Bond (-15.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with negative trend scores were the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-12.6 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (-6.2 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (7.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (6.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (21.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (12.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-6.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-12.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (23.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (19.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (10.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (20.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-15.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-14.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-12.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.8 percent)
Eurodollar (0.0 percent) vs Eurodollar (2.4 percent)

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,643,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 80,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,724,566 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.9	71.7	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.0	40.4	7.5
– Net Position:	-2,643,905	2,937,912	-294,007
– Gross Longs:	455,567	6,735,605	413,100
– Gross Shorts:	3,099,472	3,797,693	707,107
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	93.5	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-1.5	18.3

Individual Markets:

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 113,578 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 32,523 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,055 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	72.9	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	78.9	2.3
– Net Position:	113,578	-105,032	-8,546
– Gross Longs:	248,072	1,290,344	31,928
– Gross Shorts:	134,494	1,395,376	40,474
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	47.1	38.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-6.9	-5.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -63,053 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,569 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	78.1	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	71.3	10.4
– Net Position:	-63,053	141,849	-78,796
– Gross Longs:	279,480	1,623,897	137,606
– Gross Shorts:	342,533	1,482,048	216,402
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.5	50.9	15.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.7	-18.2	-10.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -258,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 33,108 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -291,123 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	84.3	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	74.1	11.0
– Net Position:	-258,015	400,930	-142,915
– Gross Longs:	284,416	3,302,273	289,136
– Gross Shorts:	542,431	2,901,343	432,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.9	62.2	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	-1.0	12.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -108,704 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,371 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	77.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	72.4	11.6
– Net Position:	-108,704	172,612	-63,908
– Gross Longs:	351,679	2,655,676	335,131
– Gross Shorts:	460,383	2,483,064	399,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	42.4	64.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.9	-30.2	22.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -35,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,368 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,339 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	82.8	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	70.1	21.2
– Net Position:	-35,707	149,258	-113,551
– Gross Longs:	61,232	974,246	136,055
– Gross Shorts:	96,939	824,988	249,606
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.5	78.6	51.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-9.7	-1.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,218 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	77.9	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	75.9	12.3
– Net Position:	-42,102	23,004	19,098
– Gross Longs:	90,183	920,782	164,348
– Gross Shorts:	132,285	897,778	145,250
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.9	18.8	67.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	10.2	14.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -345,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -328,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.8	84.8	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	61.4	8.4
– Net Position:	-345,782	307,679	38,103
– Gross Longs:	49,387	1,113,613	147,987
– Gross Shorts:	395,169	805,934	109,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.1	65.5	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	8.3	10.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing

23 Jul

COT Week 29 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets slightly higher led by Sugar & Lean Hogs

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT soft commodities speculator bets were mostly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (21,293 contracts) with Lean Hogs (4,560 contracts), Cocoa (3,578 contracts), Wheat (1,883 contracts), Soybean Meal (277 contracts) and Live Cattle (57 contracts) also showing higher speculator bets on the week.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-37,216 contracts) and Soybeans (-12,526 contracts) with Coffee (-6,329 contracts), Cotton (-4,934 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-2,463 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-19-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,577,616	0	271,091	1	-293,689	100	22,598	47
Gold	524,786	21	94,955	0	-112,262	100	17,307	0
Silver	145,247	12	1,360	0	-8,213	100	6,853	2
Copper	174,592	8	-23,836	25	23,745	76	91	26
Palladium	6,915	3	-3,751	2	4,302	99	-551	12
Platinum	75,069	47	-4,282	2	-273	98	4,555	26
Natural Gas	953,325	0	-120,323	42	86,699	58	33,624	60
Brent	177,889	22	-41,302	42	40,843	61	459	15
Heating Oil	267,576	22	9,243	56	-23,800	46	14,557	49
Soybeans	602,987	0	102,593	45	-74,427	61	-28,166	23
Corn	1,308,458	0	209,940	57	-165,611	48	-44,329	18
Coffee	196,041	3	27,979	63	-28,026	44	47	0
Sugar	703,614	0	127,162	63	-141,842	41	14,680	26
Wheat	292,700	2	6,522	28	3,173	64	-9,695	60

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Soybean Meal (83.5 percent) leads the softs in scores and is currently in a bullish extreme state (above 80 percent). Coffee (63.0 percent) and Sugar (62.8 percent) round out the other soft commodity markets at the top of the strength list while Corn (56.8 percent) comes in next but has been falling steadily in the speculator sentiment for several weeks. On the downside, Live Cattle (6.9 percent) is the weakest in strength scores followed by Cocoa (17.0 percent) and both of these markets are in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent). Soybean Oil (24.1 percent) and Wheat (27.5 percent) are the next two lowest in scoring.

Strength Statistics:
Corn (56.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (61.6 percent)
Sugar (62.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (58.4 percent)
Coffee (63.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (68.5 percent)
Soybeans (45.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (49.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (24.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (25.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (83.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (83.4 percent)
Live Cattle (6.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (6.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (39.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (34.0 percent)
Cotton (46.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (49.8 percent)
Cocoa (17.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (13.5 percent)
Wheat (27.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (25.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Lean Hogs (20.8 percent) is the far and away leader in the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets. Soybean Meal (6.1 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data and reiterates the weakness of the overall softs markets currently. On the downside, Soybean Oil (-34.2 percent) leads the negative trend scores while the next markets with lower trend scores were Corn (-23.2 percent), Soybeans (-22.5 percent), Wheat (-22.6 percent) and Cotton (-21.0 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-23.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-20.1 percent)
Sugar (-14.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-19.7 percent)
Coffee (-18.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-7.5 percent)
Soybeans (-22.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-21.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (-34.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-30.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (6.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (10.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (3.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (20.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (17.3 percent)
Cotton (-21.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-17.9 percent)
Cocoa (-14.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-14.0 percent)
Wheat (-22.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-23.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 209,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -37,216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 247,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	48.2	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	60.9	13.2
– Net Position:	209,940	-165,611	-44,329
– Gross Longs:	358,478	631,146	127,850
– Gross Shorts:	148,538	796,757	172,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	48.3	17.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.2	24.4	5.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 127,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 21,293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	50.2	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	70.4	7.4
– Net Position:	127,162	-141,842	14,680
– Gross Longs:	192,030	353,385	66,497
– Gross Shorts:	64,868	495,227	51,817
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.8	41.3	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	17.6	-30.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,308 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	53.4	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	67.7	3.8
– Net Position:	27,979	-28,026	47
– Gross Longs:	47,036	104,664	7,570
– Gross Shorts:	19,057	132,690	7,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.0	43.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	21.2	-23.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 102,593 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,526 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,119 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	52.7	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	65.0	11.2
– Net Position:	102,593	-74,427	-28,166
– Gross Longs:	159,262	317,597	39,543
– Gross Shorts:	56,669	392,024	67,709
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	61.3	23.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.5	22.1	0.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,325 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	60.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	68.2	6.3
– Net Position:	27,325	-30,449	3,124
– Gross Longs:	66,220	225,283	26,605
– Gross Shorts:	38,895	255,732	23,481
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.1	78.2	25.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.2	39.3	-50.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 100,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	42.1	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.1	72.1	6.0
– Net Position:	100,674	-120,304	19,630
– Gross Longs:	113,190	168,512	43,743
– Gross Shorts:	12,516	288,816	24,113
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.5	20.4	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-2.6	-30.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 57 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,899 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.1	41.8	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	50.4	11.8
– Net Position:	21,956	-22,536	580
– Gross Longs:	87,558	110,738	31,759
– Gross Shorts:	65,602	133,274	31,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.9	82.5	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	2.3	6.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,619 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,059 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.7	37.7	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	48.5	14.5
– Net Position:	29,619	-21,680	-7,939
– Gross Longs:	71,395	75,386	21,122
– Gross Shorts:	41,776	97,066	29,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.0	67.8	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.8	-22.0	-2.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 37,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,685 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	44.9	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	67.6	4.7
– Net Position:	37,751	-40,631	2,880
– Gross Longs:	66,520	80,429	11,313
– Gross Shorts:	28,769	121,060	8,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.7	54.3	30.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.0	23.3	-43.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,180 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	45.4	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	45.7	3.7
– Net Position:	-602	-1,028	1,630
– Gross Longs:	94,072	140,649	13,132
– Gross Shorts:	94,674	141,677	11,502
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.0	84.9	12.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.8	16.3	-17.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	40.5	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	39.4	12.7
– Net Position:	6,522	3,173	-9,695
– Gross Longs:	91,557	118,634	27,569
– Gross Shorts:	85,035	115,461	37,264
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.5	64.2	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.6	32.8	-29.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Soft Commodities

23 Jul

COT Week 29 Charts: Stock Market Speculator bets mostly higher led by Russell 2000 & Nasdaq

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT stock market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for stock markets was Russell 2000 Mini (17,089 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (8,701 contracts), S&P500 Mini (7,380 contracts) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (4,006 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were MSCI EAFE Mini (-3,637 contracts) with VIX (-3,533 contracts) and Nikkei 225 USD (-1,176 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-19-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,335,319	9	-208,148	18	266,346	100	-58,198	14
Nikkei 225	13,324	7	-3,127	63	3,341	46	-214	26
Nasdaq-Mini	256,388	46	28,117	91	-19,555	14	-8,562	31
DowJones-Mini	71,277	30	-15,837	16	20,984	88	-5,147	11
VIX	308,124	29	-69,900	74	76,077	26	-6,177	61
Nikkei 225 Yen	64,010	49	5,177	50	25,668	89	-30,845	11

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq-Mini (90.7 percent) lead the stocks is currently in a bullish extreme level. The VIX (74.2 percent) and the Nikkei USD (62.6 percent) comes in as the next highest stock markets in strength scores. On the downside, the EAFE-Mini (8.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the Russell 2000-Mini (10.1 percent), the DowJones-Mini (16.1 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (17.6 percent). All four of those markets are in bearish extreme levels at the moment (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (74.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (76.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (17.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (16.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (16.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (11.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (90.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (85.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (10.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (62.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (68.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (8.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (12.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Nasdaq-Mini (6.2 percent) and DowJones-Mini (5.7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for stocks this week. The S&P500-Mini (-35.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the EAFE-Mini (-30.9 percent) followed by the Nikkei USD (-21.8 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-6.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-10.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-35.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-44.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (5.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (7.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (6.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (7.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-15.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-22.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-21.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (5.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-30.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-20.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -69,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,533 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	56.8	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.2	32.1	9.9
– Net Position:	-69,900	76,077	-6,177
– Gross Longs:	47,762	175,043	24,318
– Gross Shorts:	117,662	98,966	30,495
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	26.1	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	6.4	-2.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -208,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,380 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -215,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	76.8	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	65.4	12.1
– Net Position:	-208,148	266,346	-58,198
– Gross Longs:	250,387	1,792,747	223,471
– Gross Shorts:	458,535	1,526,401	281,669
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.6	100.0	14.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.4	33.8	-4.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -15,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	59.9	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.9	30.4	21.8
– Net Position:	-15,837	20,984	-5,147
– Gross Longs:	17,567	42,667	10,371
– Gross Shorts:	33,404	21,683	15,518
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.1	88.2	10.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-6.8	5.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 28,117 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,416 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	54.2	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	61.9	16.8
– Net Position:	28,117	-19,555	-8,562
– Gross Longs:	76,826	139,088	34,491
– Gross Shorts:	48,709	158,643	43,053
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.7	14.5	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-11.4	15.4

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -100,689 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -117,778 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	86.7	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	68.4	4.4
– Net Position:	-100,689	105,868	-5,179
– Gross Longs:	53,055	503,449	20,163
– Gross Shorts:	153,744	397,581	25,342
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.1	90.6	11.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	14.8	-4.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,127 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,951 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	61.9	20.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.5	36.8	22.5
– Net Position:	-3,127	3,341	-214
– Gross Longs:	2,269	8,241	2,783
– Gross Shorts:	5,396	4,900	2,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	46.4	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.8	14.5	21.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -25,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,637 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	91.6	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	86.3	1.4
– Net Position:	-25,673	22,245	3,428
– Gross Longs:	22,869	382,761	9,198
– Gross Shorts:	48,542	360,516	5,770
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.5	96.8	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.9	32.2	1.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Stock Market News

23 Jul

COT Week 29 Charts: Energy Speculator bets go higher led by Natural Gas & Gasoline

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT energy market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Natural Gas (11,280 contracts) with Gasoline (7,074 contracts), WTI Crude Oil (2,763 contracts) and Heating Oil (2,515 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-3,413 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (-2,914 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-19-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,577,616	0	271,091	1	-293,689	100	22,598	47
Gold	524,786	21	94,955	0	-112,262	100	17,307	0
Silver	145,247	12	1,360	0	-8,213	100	6,853	2
Copper	174,592	8	-23,836	25	23,745	76	91	26
Palladium	6,915	3	-3,751	2	4,302	99	-551	12
Platinum	75,069	47	-4,282	2	-273	98	4,555	26
Natural Gas	953,325	0	-120,323	42	86,699	58	33,624	60
Brent	177,889	22	-41,302	42	40,843	61	459	15
Heating Oil	267,576	22	9,243	56	-23,800	46	14,557	49
Soybeans	602,987	0	102,593	45	-74,427	61	-28,166	23
Corn	1,308,458	0	209,940	57	-165,611	48	-44,329	18
Coffee	196,041	3	27,979	63	-28,026	44	47	0
Sugar	703,614	0	127,162	63	-141,842	41	14,680	26
Wheat	292,700	2	6,522	28	3,173	64	-9,695	60

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Heating Oil (56.0 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (53.4 percent) lead the energy markets with both above the 50 percent level of the past three year ranges. On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (0.9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by Gasoline (11.8 percent) with both in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (41.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (46.8 percent)
Natural Gas (42.5 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (39.1 percent)
Gasoline (11.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (4.7 percent)
Heating Oil (56.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (52.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (53.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (66.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Gasoline (9.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Heating Oil (6.4 percent) is the only positive mover in the latest trends data. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-22.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were WTI Crude Oil (-17.8 percent) followed by Brent Crude Oil (-8.7 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-17.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-20.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-8.7 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (4.2 percent)
Natural Gas (-1.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.4 percent)
Gasoline (9.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-1.0 percent)
Heating Oil (6.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (9.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-22.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-0.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 271,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,763 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 268,328 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.7	36.8	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	55.4	3.2
– Net Position:	271,091	-293,689	22,598
– Gross Longs:	374,677	580,330	73,482
– Gross Shorts:	103,586	874,019	50,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	100.0	46.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	23.9	-25.6

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	52.5	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.8	29.6	3.6
– Net Position:	-41,302	40,843	459
– Gross Longs:	27,724	93,411	6,899
– Gross Shorts:	69,026	52,568	6,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.9	61.2	15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	11.0	-19.4

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -120,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,603 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	42.0	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	32.9	3.1
– Net Position:	-120,323	86,699	33,624
– Gross Longs:	183,610	400,468	63,072
– Gross Shorts:	303,933	313,769	29,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	58.2	59.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	6.4	-33.7

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 39,816 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,074 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	51.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	68.6	5.2
– Net Position:	39,816	-45,501	5,685
– Gross Longs:	72,688	139,646	19,650
– Gross Shorts:	32,872	185,147	13,965
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	87.7	50.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.4	-3.5	-37.9

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 9,243 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	54.1	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	62.9	10.3
– Net Position:	9,243	-23,800	14,557
– Gross Longs:	37,695	144,635	42,056
– Gross Shorts:	28,452	168,435	27,499
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	45.9	48.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	0.7	-17.3

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,413 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	76.9	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	56.3	0.2
– Net Position:	-14,128	13,905	223
– Gross Longs:	12,868	51,893	364
– Gross Shorts:	26,996	37,988	141
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.4	46.8	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.0	23.2	-11.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News

16 Jul

Euro, Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real lead Currency Speculators bets lower

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT currency market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian dollar with a weekly gain of 6,021 contracts while the New Zealand dollar (1,773 contracts) and the Swiss franc (1,411 contracts) also had positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Mexican peso (-8,820 contracts) and the Euro (-8,392 contracts) with the Brazilian real (-6,128 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,553 contracts), British pound sterling (-2,881 contracts), US Dollar Index (-897 contracts), Canadian dollar (-788 contracts) and Bitcoin(-591 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting this week’s COT currency data is the continued decline in the Euro speculator positions which fell for a second straight week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Euro bets have now dropped by -77,516 contracts in just the past six weeks, going from +52,272 contracts on May 31st to -25,244 contracts this week. This weakness put the current speculator position at the lowest level since March of 2020 but it is nowhere near the extremely bearish levels of years past (for example: -114,021 contracts in 2020 or -182,845 contracts in 2015). There seems to be a lot of room for the speculator position to fall further. Will this bring the Euro price even lower? That is a fascinating question as the largest currency news story of the past few weeks has been the EURUSD reaching parity for the first time in over twenty years. The EURUSD actually hit 0.9952 on Thursday before closing the week near the 1.0080 exchange rate and with the US Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates further soon – the EURUSD will likely remain under pressure but how low can it go?

The other side of the COT data this week is the continued strength of the US Dollar Index speculator positions. The USD Index speculator bets fell this week for a third straight week but remain very much near their recent highs. Speculative positions recently had three straight weeks of over at least +40,000 net contracts for the first time since 2019 while the speculator position also topped +45,000 contracts (on June 21st) for the first time since March 21st of 2017, a span of 274 weeks. The strong sentiment for the dollar has helped boost the US Dollar Index price to a high over 109.00 this week, reaching the highest level since 2002. With the two largest components of the US Dollar Index, the Euro at 57.6 percent of the index and the Japanese yen at 13.6 percent, so weak at the moment, the DXY might challenge the 110 exchange rate in the weeks to come.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-12-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	59,565	88	38,354	89	-40,895	11	2,541	44
EUR	682,031	75	-25,244	27	5,760	78	19,484	7
GBP	231,945	59	-59,089	31	75,405	74	-16,316	22
JPY	223,539	71	-59,998	32	75,067	72	-15,069	23
CHF	41,255	23	-8,724	34	19,882	75	-11,158	20
CAD	139,297	23	3,505	43	-4,653	65	1,148	32
AUD	158,263	51	-41,600	46	52,490	58	-10,890	26
NZD	45,837	36	-5,283	62	8,979	44	-3,696	9
MXN	195,611	47	-23,238	17	20,317	81	2,921	55
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	41,034	28	10,205	60	-10,868	41	663	73
Bitcoin	13,505	77	-171	77	-201	0	372	21

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (88.9 percent) leads the currency markets near the top of its 3-year range and in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (77.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets strength scores with the New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) and the Brazilian Real (60.4 percent) rounding out the only other markets above 50 percent or above their midpoint for the past 3 years . On the downside, the Mexican Peso (17.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the only one in a bearish extreme level. The EuroFX (27.3 percent) continues to fall and is the second lowest strength score this week.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (88.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (90.4 percent)
EuroFX (27.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (29.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (31.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (33.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (31.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (35.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (34.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (44.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (46.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (59.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (17.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (21.2 percent)
Brazil Real (60.4 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (66.4 percent)
Russian Ruble (31.2 percent) vs Russian Ruble previous week (31.9 percent)
Bitcoin (77.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (87.9 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Swiss Franc (29.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (22.6 percent) and the Japanese Yen (21.2 percent) round out the next highest movers in the latest trends data as the CHF, NZD and the JPY have seen improving sentiment from speculators. The Brazilian Real (-34.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores this week while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Mexican Peso (-25.0 percent) followed by the Euro (-23.8 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.0 percent)
EuroFX (-23.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-17.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (21.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (29.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (24.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (11.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (19.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (6.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-2.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (22.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (20.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-25.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-18.9 percent)
Brazil Real (-34.5 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-22.0 percent)
Russian Ruble (-15.6 percent) vs Russian Ruble previous week (9.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-10.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-7.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 38,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	85.8	3.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	72.5	4.7
– Net Position:	38,354	-40,895	2,541
– Gross Longs:	51,109	2,305	5,365
– Gross Shorts:	12,755	43,200	2,824
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.9	10.9	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	0.7	-13.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -25,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	56.5	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	55.6	9.4
– Net Position:	-25,244	5,760	19,484
– Gross Longs:	197,240	385,039	83,394
– Gross Shorts:	222,484	379,279	63,910
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.3	77.7	6.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.8	25.8	-22.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	75.3	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	42.8	15.2
– Net Position:	-59,089	75,405	-16,316
– Gross Longs:	33,850	174,748	18,999
– Gross Shorts:	92,939	99,343	35,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.4	74.3	21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-7.0	-6.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	71.8	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	38.3	17.1
– Net Position:	-59,998	75,067	-15,069
– Gross Longs:	35,533	160,589	23,147
– Gross Shorts:	95,531	85,522	38,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.9	72.3	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.2	-14.6	-9.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	63.5	19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.2	15.4	46.4
– Net Position:	-8,724	19,882	-11,158
– Gross Longs:	7,017	26,217	7,984
– Gross Shorts:	15,741	6,335	19,142
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	75.2	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.7	-15.9	-6.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,505 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -788 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	46.4	22.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	49.8	22.0
– Net Position:	3,505	-4,653	1,148
– Gross Longs:	41,613	64,673	31,834
– Gross Shorts:	38,108	69,326	30,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	64.9	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-3.6	-12.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,600 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	67.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.6	33.9	17.4
– Net Position:	-41,600	52,490	-10,890
– Gross Longs:	30,527	106,112	16,570
– Gross Shorts:	72,127	53,622	27,460
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	58.0	25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	1.0	-20.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	61.7	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	42.1	13.4
– Net Position:	-5,283	8,979	-3,696
– Gross Longs:	14,926	28,261	2,436
– Gross Shorts:	20,209	19,282	6,132
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	44.2	9.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.6	-19.1	-12.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,820 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,418 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.5	43.1	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.4	32.7	1.6
– Net Position:	-23,238	20,317	2,921
– Gross Longs:	104,715	84,247	6,023
– Gross Shorts:	127,953	63,930	3,102
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	81.3	55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.0	25.2	-7.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 10,205 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.8	46.0	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	72.5	5.6
– Net Position:	10,205	-10,868	663
– Gross Longs:	19,197	18,878	2,957
– Gross Shorts:	8,992	29,746	2,294
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.4	40.7	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.5	35.9	-19.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.5	1.6	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.7	3.1	6.5
– Net Position:	-171	-201	372
– Gross Longs:	10,325	216	1,247
– Gross Shorts:	10,496	417	875
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.2	46.1	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	17.5	6.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

16 Jul

COT Week 28 Charts: Copper leads Metals Speculators bets while Gold bets fall sharply

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT precious metals speculator bets were lower again this week as two out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Copper with a weekly gain of 5,501 contracts while Palladium (608 contracts) also showed a positive week.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-27,539 contracts) and Platinum (-3,177 contracts) with Silver (-1,935 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the metals data this week is the continued drop in the Gold speculator positions. Gold speculator bets have fallen for three straight weeks and in ten out of the past thirteen weeks. This amounts to a total decline of -136,166 contracts over that 13-week period. The current bullish standing for Gold has dipped all the way to +118,121 contracts which is a steeply lower compared to the 2022 weekly average of +204,891 contracts. The current speculator standing is at the lowest level in the past one hundred and sixty-three weeks, dating back to May 28th of 2019 when spec bets totaled just +86,688 contracts.

Silver contracts have also been in a deep decline as well with speculator bets falling for three straight weeks and for ten out of the past eleven weeks (a total -43,225 contract decline over past 11 weeks). This weakness has brought the overall net position very close to falling into negative or bearish territory at a total of just +3,204 contracts currently. Silver bets, like Gold, are at the lowest level in one hundred and sixty-one weeks, dating back to June 11th of 2019.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-12-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,612,803	0	268,328	0	-294,526	100	26,198	52
Gold	542,493	26	118,121	0	-137,788	100	19,667	0
Silver	142,259	9	3,204	0	-9,612	100	6,408	0
Copper	172,037	6	-26,295	23	27,061	78	-766	21
Palladium	6,474	1	-2,802	7	3,252	93	-450	18
Platinum	75,615	48	-5,911	0	1,235	100	4,676	27
Natural Gas	969,204	0	-131,603	39	94,195	61	37,408	69
Brent	171,950	17	-38,388	47	36,619	54	1,769	33
Heating Oil	266,330	22	6,728	52	-22,853	47	16,125	54
Soybeans	611,751	1	115,119	49	-87,284	57	-27,835	24
Corn	1,333,199	0	247,156	62	-196,533	44	-50,623	14
Coffee	195,810	2	34,308	68	-35,166	37	858	0
Sugar	701,144	0	105,869	58	-115,779	46	9,910	20
Wheat	288,182	0	4,639	25	5,041	67	-9,680	60

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show the very weak speculator sentiment levels for the precious metals at the moment. Four out of the five metals markets currently have bearish extreme positioning (below 20 percent) as has been the case for many weeks. Copper (23.4 percent) is the only market not in a bearish extreme level currently but remains in the bottom quartile of its 3-year range of speculator positions. Gold, Silver and Platinum are all at zero percent levels which means that speculator bets are at 3-year lows.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (0.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (11.7 percent)
Silver (0.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.6 percent)
Copper (23.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.5 percent)
Platinum (0.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (4.3 percent)
Palladium (7.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Palladium (1.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week and has the only positive trend among metals. Gold (-23.1 percent), Silver (-14.5 percent) and Platinum (-11.3 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently while Copper (-6.0 percent).

Move Statistics:
Gold (-23.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-16.2 percent)
Silver (-14.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-12.0 percent)
Copper (-6.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-8.8 percent)
Platinum (-11.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-5.7 percent)
Palladium (1.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.3 percent)

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 118,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -27,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 145,660 net contracts.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.3	24.2	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	49.6	6.1
– Net Position:	118,121	-137,788	19,667
– Gross Longs:	251,126	131,170	52,583
– Gross Shorts:	133,005	268,958	32,916
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	25.1	-27.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,139 net contracts.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.5	40.7	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	47.4	10.8
– Net Position:	3,204	-9,612	6,408
– Gross Longs:	54,744	57,865	21,748
– Gross Shorts:	51,540	67,477	15,340
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	15.6	-16.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -26,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,796 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	50.8	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	35.1	8.6
– Net Position:	-26,295	27,061	-766
– Gross Longs:	52,623	87,389	13,967
– Gross Shorts:	78,918	60,328	14,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.4	78.1	20.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	8.0	-19.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,734 net contracts.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.1	39.4	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.9	37.7	5.0
– Net Position:	-5,911	1,235	4,676
– Gross Longs:	32,580	29,758	8,464
– Gross Shorts:	38,491	28,523	3,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	10.0	7.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,802 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	70.8	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.7	20.6	20.1
– Net Position:	-2,802	3,252	-450
– Gross Longs:	1,001	4,586	853
– Gross Shorts:	3,803	1,334	1,303
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.1	93.0	17.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	0.2	-20.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog investing Metals Opinions

16 Jul

COT Week 28 Charts: Bond Market Speculators bets mostly lower led by Eurodollar, 5-Year & FedFunds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower net speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bond with a gain of 62,129 contracts while the 2-Year Bond (22,473 contracts) and the Long US Treasury Bond (4,455 contracts) also had higher net speculator positions for the week.

The Bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Eurodollar (-375,415 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (-36,670 contracts) with the Fed Funds (-15,131 contracts), the Ultra US Bond (-9,640 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year (-4,597 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

The Eurodollar represents the largest futures market with open interest (contracts open in the market currently) near 10 million contracts each week and the weekly changes dwarf most other markets. Overall, the bonds category represents around sixty percent of the contracts outstanding in the futures markets we cover and currently five bond markets reside in the top six of open interest.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-12-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,649,037	16	-2,724,566	3	3,025,607	95	-301,041	38
FedFunds	1,627,114	49	81,055	50	-72,132	51	-8,923	37
2-Year	2,064,383	12	-64,569	69	166,752	56	-102,183	6
Long T-Bond	1,174,643	43	-23,218	77	8,304	14	14,914	64
10-Year	3,459,761	27	-108,371	56	221,849	48	-113,478	53
5-Year	3,968,034	50	-291,123	32	418,734	64	-127,611	46

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (77.0 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (69.2 percent) lead the bonds markets currently and have both risen since last week. The 10-Year Bond (56.0 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores and has risen almost 10 percent for the week. On the downside, the Eurodollar (2.8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is the only extreme score this week (bearish). The Ultra 10-Year Bond (21.7 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (32.1 percent) follow as the next weakest strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (49.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (51.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (69.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (64.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (32.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (38.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (56.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (46.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (21.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (22.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (77.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (75.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (51.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (55.2 percent)
Eurodollar (2.8 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (9.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Ultra 10-Year Bond leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week with a 20.3 percent gain. The 10-Year Bond (19.8 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (12.8 percent) round out the next top movers in the latest trends data. The US Treasury Bond (-14.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the 5-Year Bond (-12.9 percent) followed by the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-7.8 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (6.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (6.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (12.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-10.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-12.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-23.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (19.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (8.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (20.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-14.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-18.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-7.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-4.4 percent)
Eurodollar (2.4 percent) vs Eurodollar (8.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,724,566 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -375,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,349,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.7	72.4	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.0	41.1	7.4
– Net Position:	-2,724,566	3,025,607	-301,041
– Gross Longs:	456,666	6,989,571	415,361
– Gross Shorts:	3,181,232	3,963,964	716,402
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	95.1	38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-4.2	23.0

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 81,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	72.9	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.7	77.3	2.8
– Net Position:	81,055	-72,132	-8,923
– Gross Longs:	189,815	1,186,007	37,102
– Gross Shorts:	108,760	1,258,139	46,025
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	51.1	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-6.7	-2.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -64,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 22,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -87,042 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	78.0	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	69.9	11.4
– Net Position:	-64,569	166,752	-102,183
– Gross Longs:	278,448	1,610,060	133,635
– Gross Shorts:	343,017	1,443,308	235,818
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.2	56.3	6.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-5.8	-15.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -291,123 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -36,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -254,453 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	84.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	73.6	10.8
– Net Position:	-291,123	418,734	-127,611
– Gross Longs:	274,551	3,340,256	301,482
– Gross Shorts:	565,674	2,921,522	429,093
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.1	64.4	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.9	6.3	6.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -108,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 62,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -170,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	77.6	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	71.2	12.5
– Net Position:	-108,371	221,849	-113,478
– Gross Longs:	360,163	2,686,457	320,087
– Gross Shorts:	468,534	2,464,608	433,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	48.2	52.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.8	-22.5	13.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -27,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	82.2	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	71.1	20.8
– Net Position:	-27,339	131,498	-104,159
– Gross Longs:	60,265	973,110	141,625
– Gross Shorts:	87,604	841,612	245,784
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	74.1	57.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.3	-20.2	0.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,218 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	77.2	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	76.5	12.7
– Net Position:	-23,218	8,304	14,914
– Gross Longs:	97,335	907,260	163,928
– Gross Shorts:	120,553	898,956	149,014
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.0	13.6	64.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	2.4	28.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -328,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -318,655 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.1	84.3	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	61.2	9.1
– Net Position:	-328,295	298,402	29,893
– Gross Longs:	52,766	1,087,219	146,988
– Gross Shorts:	381,061	788,817	117,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	61.0	49.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	5.3	5.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News

16 Jul

COT Week 28 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators bets drop lower led by Corn, Coffee & Soybeans

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT soft commodities speculator bets were mostly lower this week as five out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower net speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (22,357 contracts) and Lean Hogs (9,852 contracts) with Soybean Meal (4,453 contracts), Cocoa (2,935 contracts) and Live Cattle (1,870 contracts) also showing increasing net positions on the week.

The markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-13,549 contracts) and Coffee (-12,479 contracts) with Soybeans (-10,372 contracts), Cotton (-7,860 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,893 contracts) and Wheat (-3,745 contracts) also seeing lower speculator net positions on the week.

The latest data for the soft commodities markets (especially strength trends further below) shows how much the softs sentiment has cooled off after a super-hot start to the year.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-12-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,612,803	0	268,328	0	-294,526	100	26,198	52
Gold	542,493	26	118,121	0	-137,788	100	19,667	0
Silver	142,259	9	3,204	0	-9,612	100	6,408	0
Copper	172,037	6	-26,295	23	27,061	78	-766	21
Palladium	6,474	1	-2,802	7	3,252	93	-450	18
Platinum	75,615	48	-5,911	0	1,235	100	4,676	27
Natural Gas	969,204	0	-131,603	39	94,195	61	37,408	69
Brent	171,950	17	-38,388	47	36,619	54	1,769	33
Heating Oil	266,330	22	6,728	52	-22,853	47	16,125	54
Soybeans	611,751	1	115,119	49	-87,284	57	-27,835	24
Corn	1,333,199	0	247,156	62	-196,533	44	-50,623	14
Coffee	195,810	2	34,308	68	-35,166	37	858	0
Sugar	701,144	0	105,869	58	-115,779	46	9,910	20
Wheat	288,182	0	4,639	25	5,041	67	-9,680	60

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Soybean Meal (83.4 percent) positions lead the strength scores in the soft commodity markets and are currently in a bullish extreme position. Coffee (68.5 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity market in strength scores followed by Corn (61.6 percent) and Sugar (58.4 percent). On the downside, Live Cattle (6.8 percent) and Cocoa (13.5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are both in extreme bearish levels.

Strength Statistics:
Corn (61.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (63.3 percent)
Sugar (58.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (53.8 percent)
Coffee (68.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (79.3 percent)
Soybeans (49.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (52.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (25.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (29.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (83.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (80.9 percent)
Live Cattle (6.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (34.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (23.3 percent)
Cotton (49.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (54.8 percent)
Cocoa (13.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (10.7 percent)
Wheat (25.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.0 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Lean Hogs (17.3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the soft commodity markets this week. Soybean Meal (10.9 percent) and Live Cattle (3.0 percent) round out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. Soybean Oil (-30.2 percent) and Wheat (-23.0 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Soybeans (-21.6 percent) and Corn (-20.1 percent) followed by Sugar (-19.7 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-20.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-21.4 percent)
vs Sugar previous week (-25.9 percent)
Coffee (-7.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.4 percent)
Soybeans (-21.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-19.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-30.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-29.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.8 percent)
Live Cattle (3.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-3.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (17.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (8.6 percent)
Cotton (-17.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.0 percent)
Cocoa (-14.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-15.4 percent)
Wheat (-23.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-23.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 247,156 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,549 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 260,705 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	46.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	61.6	13.1
– Net Position:	247,156	-196,533	-50,623
– Gross Longs:	384,324	624,590	123,773
– Gross Shorts:	137,168	821,123	174,396
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	43.9	13.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.1	22.3	0.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 105,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	50.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	67.0	7.6
– Net Position:	105,869	-115,779	9,910
– Gross Longs:	188,691	354,173	62,937
– Gross Shorts:	82,822	469,952	53,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	46.2	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.7	23.7	-36.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 34,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	52.7	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	70.6	3.9
– Net Position:	34,308	-35,166	858
– Gross Longs:	49,003	103,113	8,550
– Gross Shorts:	14,695	138,279	7,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	37.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	9.6	-18.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 115,119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	51.3	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	65.6	10.9
– Net Position:	115,119	-87,284	-27,835
– Gross Longs:	171,610	313,986	38,675
– Gross Shorts:	56,491	401,270	66,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.2	57.5	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	21.3	-0.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,893 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,681 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	59.3	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	68.0	6.3
– Net Position:	29,788	-32,200	2,412
– Gross Longs:	69,825	219,399	25,642
– Gross Shorts:	40,037	251,599	23,230
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	76.3	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.2	36.0	-55.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 100,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,944 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	43.0	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.6	73.2	5.5
– Net Position:	100,397	-119,787	19,390
– Gross Longs:	110,774	170,710	41,383
– Gross Shorts:	10,377	290,497	21,993
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.4	20.7	34.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-5.4	-47.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,899 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	41.1	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	49.5	11.3
– Net Position:	21,899	-22,536	637
– Gross Longs:	92,671	111,204	31,321
– Gross Shorts:	70,772	133,740	30,684
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.8	82.5	84.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-5.4	5.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,852 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	39.6	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	48.2	14.1
– Net Position:	25,059	-16,735	-8,324
– Gross Longs:	66,221	76,851	19,114
– Gross Shorts:	41,162	93,586	27,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	73.7	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.3	-17.2	-6.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 42,685 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,545 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.3	43.5	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	69.5	5.0
– Net Position:	42,685	-45,740	3,055
– Gross Longs:	67,517	76,796	11,861
– Gross Shorts:	24,832	122,536	8,806
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.8	51.3	31.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	20.6	-45.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,180 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	46.2	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	45.5	3.9
– Net Position:	-4,180	2,102	2,078
– Gross Longs:	90,985	141,970	14,013
– Gross Shorts:	95,165	139,868	11,935
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	87.9	17.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	16.0	-21.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,745 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,384 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	42.5	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	40.7	12.9
– Net Position:	4,639	5,041	-9,680
– Gross Longs:	84,206	122,406	27,418
– Gross Shorts:	79,567	117,365	37,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.1	66.8	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.0	33.7	-31.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Soft Commodities

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