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COT Week 28 Charts: Energy Speculator bets mixed led by Gasoline & Heating Oil

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets saw decreasing net positions for the week.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Gasoline (4,721 contracts) with Heating Oil (242 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (126 contracts) also showing very small positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-12,195 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-3,229 contracts) with Natural Gas (-1,084 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-12-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,612,803	0	268,328	0	-294,526	100	26,198	52
Gold	542,493	26	118,121	0	-137,788	100	19,667	0
Silver	142,259	9	3,204	0	-9,612	100	6,408	0
Copper	172,037	6	-26,295	23	27,061	78	-766	21
Palladium	6,474	1	-2,802	7	3,252	93	-450	18
Platinum	75,615	48	-5,911	0	1,235	100	4,676	27
Natural Gas	969,204	0	-131,603	39	94,195	61	37,408	69
Brent	171,950	17	-38,388	47	36,619	54	1,769	33
Heating Oil	266,330	22	6,728	52	-22,853	47	16,125	54
Soybeans	611,751	1	115,119	49	-87,284	57	-27,835	24
Corn	1,333,199	0	247,156	62	-196,533	44	-50,623	14
Coffee	195,810	2	34,308	68	-35,166	37	858	0
Sugar	701,144	0	105,869	58	-115,779	46	9,910	20
Wheat	288,182	0	4,639	25	5,041	67	-9,680	60

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (66.5 percent) and Heating Oil (52.3 percent) lead the energy markets this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has been the strongest strength score in the past few weeks but came down from a 78.8 percent score last week showing a weakening strength compared to the 3-year range. On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) and Gasoline (4.7 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores currently and are both in bearish extreme levels (near the bottom of their 3-year ranges).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (3.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (46.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (46.5 percent)
Natural Gas (39.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (39.4 percent)
Gasoline (4.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (0.0 percent)
Heating Oil (52.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (52.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (66.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (78.8 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (9.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (4.2 percent) is the only positive mover in the latest trends data. WTI Crude Oil (-20.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Natural Gas (-6.4 percent) followed by Gasoline (-1.0 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-20.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-16.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (4.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (1.3 percent)
Natural Gas (-6.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-5.7 percent)
Gasoline (-1.0 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-4.4 percent)
Heating Oil (9.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (18.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-0.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (7.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 268,328 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 280,523 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	36.6	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	54.9	3.5
– Net Position:	268,328	-294,526	26,198
– Gross Longs:	375,155	590,438	82,523
– Gross Shorts:	106,827	884,964	56,325
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	51.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.1	25.2	-20.6

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,514 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	52.2	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	30.9	3.1
– Net Position:	-38,388	36,619	1,769
– Gross Longs:	26,868	89,831	7,060
– Gross Shorts:	65,256	53,212	5,291
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.8	54.2	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-3.9	-2.2

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -131,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	41.2	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	31.4	2.9
– Net Position:	-131,603	94,195	37,408
– Gross Longs:	183,194	398,833	65,940
– Gross Shorts:	314,797	304,638	28,532
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.1	60.6	68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	10.9	-31.3

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	55.1	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	69.2	5.1
– Net Position:	32,742	-38,954	6,212
– Gross Longs:	69,876	153,217	20,335
– Gross Shorts:	37,134	192,171	14,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.7	94.0	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	6.8	-40.8

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 6,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 242 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	52.7	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	61.3	10.1
– Net Position:	6,728	-22,853	16,125
– Gross Longs:	36,724	140,444	43,002
– Gross Shorts:	29,996	163,297	26,877
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	46.9	54.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-5.2	-6.0

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	72.9	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.5	57.1	0.2
– Net Position:	-10,715	10,480	235
– Gross Longs:	15,577	48,468	360
– Gross Shorts:	26,292	37,988	125
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.5	33.6	18.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	1.7	-12.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

16 Jul

COT Week 28 Charts: Stock Market Speculators bets declined overall led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT stock market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower weekly net changes.

Leading the gains for stock markets was the MSCI EAFE Mini (11,147 contracts) with the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (3,240 contracts) and Russell 2000 Mini (815 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-31,846 contracts) and the VIX (-20,866 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (-11,479 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-206 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-12-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,317,580	8	-215,528	16	247,687	100	-32,159	20
Nikkei 225	13,053	7	-1,951	68	3,206	46	-1,255	13
Nasdaq-Mini	254,260	45	19,416	86	-9,589	21	-9,827	28
DowJones-Mini	67,254	24	-19,843	11	25,635	94	-5,792	7
VIX	281,586	21	-66,367	76	73,802	25	-7,435	55
Nikkei 225 Yen	61,838	46	7,547	57	25,338	88	-32,885	7

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq-Mini (85.9 percent) leads the stocks and is currently in a bullish extreme position. The VIX (76.0 percent) and the Nikkei USD (68.2 percent) come in as the next highest stock markets in strength scores. On the downside, the Russell2000-Mini (0.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently (extreme bearish) and continues to scrape the bottom of its 3-year range. The DowJones-Mini (11.1 percent), EAFE-Mini (12.6 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (16.3 percent) round out the next lowest scores and are also in extreme bearish levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (76.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (86.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (16.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (22.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (11.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (7.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (85.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (92.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (0.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (68.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (69.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (12.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (0.0 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, that calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the DowJones-Mini (7.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for stocks currently. The Nasdaq-Mini (7.7 percent) and the Nikkei USD (5.4 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data. The S&P500-Mini (-44.0 percent) and the Russell 2000-Mini (-22.2 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week followed by the EAFE-Mini (-20.7 percent) which saw an improvement from last week (-37.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-10.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (-1.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-44.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-43.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (7.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (1.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (7.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (9.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-22.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-24.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (5.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-1.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-20.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-37.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -66,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	59.2	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.1	33.0	10.8
– Net Position:	-66,367	73,802	-7,435
– Gross Longs:	40,825	166,659	23,039
– Gross Shorts:	107,192	92,857	30,474
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.0	25.0	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	10.1	4.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -215,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -31,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -183,682 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	77.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	67.1	11.4
– Net Position:	-215,528	247,687	-32,159
– Gross Longs:	224,577	1,802,289	233,148
– Gross Shorts:	440,105	1,554,602	265,307
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.3	100.0	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.0	39.8	-1.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -19,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,083 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	64.3	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.8	26.2	23.1
– Net Position:	-19,843	25,635	-5,792
– Gross Longs:	13,674	43,227	9,777
– Gross Shorts:	33,517	17,592	15,569
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.1	93.9	7.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.8	-5.1	-11.5

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	55.4	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	59.1	16.6
– Net Position:	19,416	-9,589	-9,827
– Gross Longs:	76,972	140,774	32,410
– Gross Shorts:	57,556	150,363	42,237
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.9	20.6	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-8.3	-0.7

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -117,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118,593 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	89.0	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	67.9	4.2
– Net Position:	-117,778	123,998	-6,220
– Gross Longs:	40,461	523,195	18,305
– Gross Shorts:	158,239	399,197	24,525
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.5	100.0	8.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	22.1	-9.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,951 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -206 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	62.1	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.9	37.5	24.4
– Net Position:	-1,951	3,206	-1,255
– Gross Longs:	2,991	8,101	1,931
– Gross Shorts:	4,942	4,895	3,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.2	45.7	12.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-2.0	-9.2

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -22,036 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	91.3	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	86.8	1.7
– Net Position:	-22,036	19,139	2,897
– Gross Longs:	24,616	391,518	10,216
– Gross Shorts:	46,652	372,379	7,319
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.6	93.1	44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.7	23.6	-14.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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09 Jul

Currency Speculators drop Euro bets further into bearish territory as EURUSD nears parity

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Currency market speculator bets were lower this week as all of the eleven currency markets we cover had lower positioning on the week.

Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Brazil real (-20,695 contracts) and the Euro (-6,256 contracts) while the Canadian dollar (-4,804 contracts), Australian dollar (-4,641 contracts), US Dollar Index (-3,978 contracts), British pound sterling (-3,090 contracts), Japanese yen (-1,875 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-1,745 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,544 contracts), Bitcoin (-665 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-438 contracts) all saw lower speculator bets for the week.

Highlighting the currency futures data this week was the Euro speculator position that fell deeper into bearish territory and dropped for the fourth time in the past five weeks. The speculator position has now decreased by a whopping -69,124 contracts in just the past five weeks and has brought the overall standing to the lowest level since November 30th of 2021, a span of 31 weeks. The Euro price has been strongly on the defensive against the dollar as the EURUSD currency pair this week hit the lowest level since December 0f 2002. The EURUSD fell to a low under the 1.0200 exchange rate on Friday and sets up what seems to be an inevitable test of parity which would also be the first time that has happened since December of 2002.

More COT currency notes:

US Dollar Index bets fell for a second straight week and dipped below +40,000 contracts for the first time in four weeks. Despite the 2-week decline, the Dollar Index speculator position remains extremely bullish which has seen increases in speculator bets in ten out of the past fifteen weeks. Overall, the Dollar Index positioning has been in bullish territory for fifty-three straight weeks after turning from bearish to bullish on July 6th of 2021. The Dollar Index price this week continued to climb (up 5 out of 6 weeks) and hit the highest level since October of 2002 at above the 107.75 level.

Japanese yen speculator bets fell for the first time in the past eight weeks this week. Yen bets remain bearish but have improved strongly over the past few months going from a total of -110,454 contracts on May 10th to a total of -54,445 contracts this week. Despite, the speculator sentiment improvement, the USDJPY currency pair has remained near the top of its range (and close to 20-year highs) at around the 136.00 exchange rate.

Brazilian real speculator bets dropped sharply this week by over -20,000 contracts and fell for the third straight week. These declines have brought the BRL position down to the lowest level in the past twenty-two weeks at just +16,333 contracts. The Brazil real price has been on the defensive in the past month as the BRLUSD currency pair fell to a five month low this week near the 0.1850 exchange rate and dropped under its 200-day moving average for the first time since January.

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (90.4 percent) and Bitcoin (87.9 percent) lead the currencies at the top of their respective ranges and are both in bullish extreme positions. The Brazilian real (66.4 percent) comes in as the next highest currency in strength scores but took a large tumble this week to fall out of a bullish extreme level. On the downside, the Mexican peso at 21.2 percent continues to be at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the Euro at 29.8 percent and the Swiss franc at 30.8 percent.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese yen (27.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends once again this week. The Swiss franc (24.2 percent), New Zealand dollar (20.6 percent) and the Canadian dollar (19.1 percent) round out the top movers in the latest data. The Brazilian real (-22.0 percent) saw a huge decrease in speculator positions this week and leads the downside trend scores currently. The next currencies will lower trend scores were the Mexican peso at -18.9 percent followed by the Euro at -17.1 percent.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-05-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	60,857	91	39,251	90	-41,510	10	2,259	41
EUR	673,772	71	-16,852	30	-8,636	74	25,488	17
GBP	240,926	65	-56,208	34	77,009	75	-20,801	13
JPY	217,672	67	-54,445	35	64,063	67	-9,618	34
CHF	38,504	18	-10,135	31	20,075	75	-9,940	24
CAD	145,372	27	4,293	44	-4,533	65	240	31
AUD	146,950	42	-47,621	41	55,708	60	-8,087	33
NZD	45,403	35	-7,056	59	10,521	47	-3,465	12
MXN	197,463	48	-14,418	21	10,096	77	4,322	61
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	39,470	26	16,333	66	-17,398	34	1,065	77
Bitcoin	13,258	75	420	88	-462	0	42	14

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,978 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,229 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	87.0	3.3	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	71.5	4.5
– Net Position:	39,251	-41,510	2,259
– Gross Longs:	52,927	2,023	4,993
– Gross Shorts:	13,676	43,533	2,734
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.4	9.9	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-1.0	-6.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	56.1	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	57.3	8.5
– Net Position:	-16,852	-8,636	25,488
– Gross Longs:	197,138	377,654	82,525
– Gross Shorts:	213,990	386,290	57,037
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	73.6	16.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	18.1	-13.5

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -56,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,118 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	74.2	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.8	42.2	16.0
– Net Position:	-56,208	77,009	-20,801
– Gross Longs:	39,618	178,745	17,693
– Gross Shorts:	95,826	101,736	38,494
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	75.2	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.4	-11.8	-8.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -54,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	68.8	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	39.3	16.1
– Net Position:	-54,445	64,063	-9,618
– Gross Longs:	38,660	149,702	25,452
– Gross Shorts:	93,105	85,639	35,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	66.9	33.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.7	-20.8	-4.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,544 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,591 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	69.2	22.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	17.1	48.2
– Net Position:	-10,135	20,075	-9,940
– Gross Longs:	3,218	26,664	8,602
– Gross Shorts:	13,353	6,589	18,542
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.8	75.5	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.2	-18.5	7.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 4,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	46.7	21.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	49.8	20.8
– Net Position:	4,293	-4,533	240
– Gross Longs:	45,365	67,829	30,460
– Gross Shorts:	41,072	72,362	30,220
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.2	65.0	30.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.1	-9.6	-11.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -47,621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,980 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	64.8	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.2	26.9	18.1
– Net Position:	-47,621	55,708	-8,087
– Gross Longs:	27,622	95,252	18,508
– Gross Shorts:	75,243	39,544	26,595
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	60.4	32.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	1.8	-0.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,745 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	63.9	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.6	40.8	13.6
– Net Position:	-7,056	10,521	-3,465
– Gross Longs:	13,634	29,029	2,689
– Gross Shorts:	20,690	18,508	6,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.4	46.6	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.6	-18.8	-1.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,418 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,980 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.3	41.6	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.6	36.5	1.3
– Net Position:	-14,418	10,096	4,322
– Gross Longs:	107,141	82,106	6,947
– Gross Shorts:	121,559	72,010	2,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.2	77.0	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	18.5	-1.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.5	29.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	73.9	5.1
– Net Position:	16,333	-17,398	1,065
– Gross Longs:	24,261	11,776	3,089
– Gross Shorts:	7,928	29,174	2,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	34.3	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.0	22.5	-8.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,085 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.3	1.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.1	4.7	7.7
– Net Position:	420	-462	42
– Gross Longs:	10,642	158	1,058
– Gross Shorts:	10,222	620	1,016
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.9	30.9	13.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	20.6	1.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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09 Jul

Precious Metals Speculator bets for Gold, Copper & Silver hit multi-year lows

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT Metals market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts. The only precious metals market to have higher speculator bets this week was Palladium with a rise of just 415 contracts. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-12,033 contracts) and Silver (-5,752 contracts) with Platinum (-1,428 contracts) and Copper (-1,100 contracts) also having lower bets for the week.

Highlights of the Metals data:

Gold speculators bets have dropped for the past two straight weeks and for nine out of the past twelve weeks. These declines have taken a total of -108,627 contracts off the Gold bullish position in past twelve weeks
Current Gold speculator position has fallen to lowest level since May 28th of 2019, a span of 162 weeks
Silver bets have dropped in nine out of the past eleven weeks (for a total decrease of -41,290 contracts)
Silver speculator positions have now fallen to the lowest level in 160 weeks, dating back to June 11th of 2019
Copper speculator positions are in bearish territory for an 11th straight week and speculator bets have fallen by a total of -67,938 contracts since April 5th
Copper speculator bets have decreased to the lowest level (currently at -31,796 contracts) in the past 120 weeks, dating back to March 17th of 2020

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the speculator sentiment for all of the precious metals is near or at the bottom of each of their 3-year ranges. The highest strength score currently is for Copper (19.5 percent) which is in an extreme bearish level for the past three years (under 20 percent). All the other markets also are in extreme bearish levels as well with Gold, Silver and Platinum residing at 3-year lows of 0 percent each.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Gold (-18.3 percent), Silver (-12.3 percent) and Copper (-8.8 percent) are leading the scores to the downside over the past six weeks followed by Platinum (-6.0 percent). Palladium (0.3 percent) is the only precious metals with a positive score although it is barely positive.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-05-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,637,862	0	280,523	0	-304,217	100	23,694	48
Gold	498,210	13	145,660	0	-165,585	100	19,925	0
Silver	140,463	7	5,139	0	-11,622	100	6,483	0
Copper	183,331	15	-31,796	19	31,340	81	456	28
Palladium	7,373	5	-3,410	4	4,104	98	-694	4
Platinum	72,895	44	-2,734	0	-1,670	100	4,404	23
Natural Gas	977,507	0	-130,519	39	91,950	60	38,569	71
Brent	166,711	13	-38,514	47	37,309	55	1,205	26
Heating Oil	264,269	21	6,486	52	-22,775	47	16,289	55
Soybeans	638,675	7	125,491	52	-93,638	56	-31,853	17
Corn	1,331,035	0	260,705	63	-207,441	42	-53,264	12
Coffee	193,731	1	46,787	79	-49,139	25	2,352	14
Sugar	713,245	0	83,512	54	-85,255	52	1,743	10
Wheat	288,754	0	8,384	30	623	61	-9,007	64

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 145,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 157,693 net contracts.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.8	23.7	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	57.0	4.8
– Net Position:	145,660	-165,585	19,925
– Gross Longs:	267,806	118,289	43,933
– Gross Shorts:	122,146	283,874	24,008
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.3	21.1	-29.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,891 net contracts.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.0	40.0	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.4	48.2	11.4
– Net Position:	5,139	-11,622	6,483
– Gross Longs:	54,841	56,137	22,495
– Gross Shorts:	49,702	67,759	16,012
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.3	13.1	-13.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -31,796 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,696 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	51.7	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.8	34.6	8.2
– Net Position:	-31,796	31,340	456
– Gross Longs:	54,073	94,749	15,516
– Gross Shorts:	85,869	63,409	15,060
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.5	81.0	27.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	8.3	0.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,306 net contracts.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	38.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.5	40.9	5.9
– Net Position:	-2,734	-1,670	4,404
– Gross Longs:	31,920	28,155	8,693
– Gross Shorts:	34,654	29,825	4,289
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	23.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	6.7	-11.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	73.1	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.6	17.4	20.6
– Net Position:	-3,410	4,104	-694
– Gross Longs:	1,132	5,389	825
– Gross Shorts:	4,542	1,285	1,519
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.6	97.7	3.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	1.7	-21.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog investing Metals Opinions

09 Jul

COT Week 27 Charts: Bond Market Speculators bets higher overall led by Ultra US Bonds & 2-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT bonds market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Ultra US Bond (19,328 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (15,076 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (11,180 contracts), the Long US Bond (10,580 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year (3,338 contracts) also having positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Eurodollar (-192,721 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (-51,789 contracts) with the Fed Funds (-24,396 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (75.6 percent) is at the highest level of the bonds markets again this week followed by the 2-Year Bond (64.7 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (55.2 percent). On the lower end, the 3-Month Eurodollars (9.7 percent) is the weakest bond market among the speculators and is in a bearish-extreme level again this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (22.9 percent) comes in as the next weakest speculator strength score at the moment but has been on the rise (see chart below) and has come out of the bearish extreme level of the past few weeks.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19.8 percent), the 3-Month Eurodollars (8.9 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (8.3 percent) are leading the rising trend scores over the past six weeks. The 5-Year Bonds (-23.5 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (-18.3 percent) leads the trends on the downside while the 2-Year Bonds (-10.5 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-4.4 percent) also show negative six-week trends.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-05-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,569,471	14	-2,349,151	10	2,628,720	88	-279,569	43
FedFunds	1,599,372	47	96,186	51	-88,543	49	-7,643	40
2-Year	2,103,356	14	-87,042	65	171,591	57	-84,549	13
Long T-Bond	1,192,980	47	-27,673	76	22,028	18	5,645	57
10-Year	3,469,680	28	-170,500	47	303,820	58	-133,320	48
5-Year	4,013,995	52	-254,453	39	404,953	63	-150,500	40

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,349,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -192,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,156,430 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	71.0	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	43.6	7.4
– Net Position:	-2,349,151	2,628,720	-279,569
– Gross Longs:	557,177	6,798,600	424,934
– Gross Shorts:	2,906,328	4,169,880	704,503
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	88.0	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-10.7	25.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 96,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -24,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	72.4	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	77.9	3.0
– Net Position:	96,186	-88,543	-7,643
– Gross Longs:	201,100	1,157,169	40,944
– Gross Shorts:	104,914	1,245,712	48,587
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.5	49.1	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-6.1	-9.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -87,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,076 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,118 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	78.2	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	70.0	10.9
– Net Position:	-87,042	171,591	-84,549
– Gross Longs:	273,378	1,643,875	144,139
– Gross Shorts:	360,420	1,472,284	228,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.7	57.4	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	14.2	-5.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -254,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -51,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -202,664 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	83.9	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	73.8	11.3
– Net Position:	-254,453	404,953	-150,500
– Gross Longs:	280,011	3,368,874	303,153
– Gross Shorts:	534,464	2,963,921	453,653
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.6	62.7	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.5	13.7	5.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -170,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -181,680 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	79.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	71.0	12.8
– Net Position:	-170,500	303,820	-133,320
– Gross Longs:	297,724	2,767,198	310,990
– Gross Shorts:	468,224	2,463,378	444,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	58.0	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-8.7	4.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	82.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	69.9	22.4
– Net Position:	-22,742	146,293	-123,551
– Gross Longs:	60,503	959,975	136,617
– Gross Shorts:	83,245	813,682	260,168
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.9	77.8	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.8	-16.8	-6.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	77.5	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	75.7	13.5
– Net Position:	-27,673	22,028	5,645
– Gross Longs:	96,356	924,975	166,387
– Gross Shorts:	124,029	902,947	160,742
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	18.5	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.3	11.9	18.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -318,655 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -337,983 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	84.1	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	61.8	8.9
– Net Position:	-318,655	285,953	32,702
– Gross Longs:	53,639	1,077,401	147,290
– Gross Shorts:	372,294	791,448	114,588
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	54.9	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	-2.1	10.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News

09 Jul

COT Week 27 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators bets go lower led by Corn, Sugar & Cocoa

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The soft commodities market speculator bets headed lower this week as just three out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybean Meal (2,019 contracts) and Coffee (1,587 contracts) with Wheat (705 contracts) also having a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-67,397 contracts) and Sugar (-39,197 contracts) with Cocoa (-13,454 contracts), Soybeans (-11,702 contracts), Soybean Oil (-10,237 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,806 contracts), Cotton (-5,845 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-1,080 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish and below 20 percent is extreme bearish) show that Coffee (79.3 percent) and Soybean Meal (80.9 percent) are leading this week with Soybean Meal just above the bullish extreme level (80 percent). On the lower side, Live Cattle (4.5 percent) and Cocoa (10.7 percent) are the lowest strength scores and are both in bearish extreme levels this week.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows once again this week how much the softs sentiment has cooled off after a scorching start to the year. Lean Hogs (8.6 percent), Coffee (8.4 percent) and Soybean Meal (7.8 percent) are the only markets that have had a gain of strength scores over the past six weeks. On the downside, Soybean Oil (-29.9 percent), Sugar (-25.9 percent) and Wheat (-23.4 percent) are leading the downtrends among the soft commodities markets.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-05-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,637,862	0	280,523	0	-304,217	100	23,694	48
Gold	498,210	13	145,660	0	-165,585	100	19,925	0
Silver	140,463	7	5,139	0	-11,622	100	6,483	0
Copper	183,331	15	-31,796	19	31,340	81	456	28
Palladium	7,373	5	-3,410	4	4,104	98	-694	4
Platinum	72,895	44	-2,734	0	-1,670	100	4,404	23
Natural Gas	977,507	0	-130,519	39	91,950	60	38,569	71
Brent	166,711	13	-38,514	47	37,309	55	1,205	26
Heating Oil	264,269	21	6,486	52	-22,775	47	16,289	55
Soybeans	638,675	7	125,491	52	-93,638	56	-31,853	17
Corn	1,331,035	0	260,705	63	-207,441	42	-53,264	12
Coffee	193,731	1	46,787	79	-49,139	25	2,352	14
Sugar	713,245	0	83,512	54	-85,255	52	1,743	10
Wheat	288,754	0	8,384	30	623	61	-9,007	64

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 260,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -67,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 328,102 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	46.5	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	62.1	13.2
– Net Position:	260,705	-207,441	-53,264
– Gross Longs:	395,713	618,691	122,652
– Gross Shorts:	135,008	826,132	175,916
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.3	42.4	12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.4	23.5	1.2

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 83,512 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -39,197 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	50.7	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	62.7	8.9
– Net Position:	83,512	-85,255	1,743
– Gross Longs:	191,390	361,892	65,138
– Gross Shorts:	107,878	447,147	63,395
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.8	52.0	10.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.9	32.3	-54.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,787 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	49.2	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.2	74.6	3.3
– Net Position:	46,787	-49,139	2,352
– Gross Longs:	54,965	95,332	8,800
– Gross Shorts:	8,178	144,471	6,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.3	24.7	13.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-9.7	9.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 125,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 137,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	51.8	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	66.4	10.9
– Net Position:	125,491	-93,638	-31,853
– Gross Longs:	190,571	330,584	37,700
– Gross Shorts:	65,080	424,222	69,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	55.6	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	19.5	-4.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 34,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,918 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	57.1	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	67.7	6.2
– Net Position:	34,681	-38,614	3,933
– Gross Longs:	75,794	208,440	26,452
– Gross Shorts:	41,113	247,054	22,519
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	72.5	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.9	36.0	-56.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 95,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,925 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	42.5	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.0	71.0	6.3
– Net Position:	95,944	-112,761	16,817
– Gross Longs:	111,776	167,821	41,885
– Gross Shorts:	15,832	280,582	25,068
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.9	24.3	21.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.8	-2.3	-49.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.8	39.7	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	47.1	10.8
– Net Position:	20,029	-20,591	562
– Gross Longs:	94,773	111,320	30,936
– Gross Shorts:	74,744	131,911	30,374
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.5	85.1	83.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	2.1	4.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 15,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,080 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,287 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	41.0	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	44.2	13.7
– Net Position:	15,207	-6,194	-9,013
– Gross Longs:	62,222	79,268	17,491
– Gross Shorts:	47,015	85,462	26,504
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.3	86.1	49.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-5.9	-15.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,845 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	41.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	72.9	4.8
– Net Position:	50,545	-54,576	4,031
– Gross Longs:	70,871	72,524	12,397
– Gross Shorts:	20,326	127,100	8,366
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.8	46.1	37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	17.0	-44.4

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -7,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,339 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	46.4	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	44.7	4.0
– Net Position:	-7,115	5,287	1,828
– Gross Longs:	94,360	146,524	14,461
– Gross Shorts:	101,475	141,237	12,633
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.7	91.0	14.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.4	18.3	-31.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,384 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,679 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	41.9	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	41.7	12.4
– Net Position:	8,384	623	-9,007
– Gross Longs:	87,094	121,006	26,674
– Gross Shorts:	78,710	120,383	35,681
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.0	60.6	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.4	35.5	-36.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Soft Commodities

09 Jul

COT Week 27 Charts: Energy Speculator bets drop led by WTI Crude Oil & Gasoline

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Energy market speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

The only market to show speculator bet gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil with a gain of +4,163 contracts. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-19,169 contracts) and Gasoline (-4,078 contracts) with Natural Gas (-1,100 contracts), Heating Oil (-1,022 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-137 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish and below 20 percent is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.8 percent) is above its midpoint for the past 3 years and leads the way for the energy markets in speculator sentiment. Brent oil (46.5 percent) and Heating oil (52 percent) are also positive while WTI Crude (0 percent) and Gasoline (0 percent) are at the bottom of their 3-year ranges and in bearish extreme levels.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating oil (18.7 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (7.8 percent) lead the rising scores over the past six weeks. WTI Crude oil, meanwhile, has been on the largest downtrend with a -17.6 percent score for the past six weeks, followed by Natural Gas (-5.7 percent) and Gasoline (-4.4 percent).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-05-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,637,862	0	280,523	0	-304,217	100	23,694	48
Gold	498,210	13	145,660	0	-165,585	100	19,925	0
Silver	140,463	7	5,139	0	-11,622	100	6,483	0
Copper	183,331	15	-31,796	19	31,340	81	456	28
Palladium	7,373	5	-3,410	4	4,104	98	-694	4
Platinum	72,895	44	-2,734	0	-1,670	100	4,404	23
Natural Gas	977,507	0	-130,519	39	91,950	60	38,569	71
Brent	166,711	13	-38,514	47	37,309	55	1,205	26
Heating Oil	264,269	21	6,486	52	-22,775	47	16,289	55
Soybeans	638,675	7	125,491	52	-93,638	56	-31,853	17
Corn	1,331,035	0	260,705	63	-207,441	42	-53,264	12
Coffee	193,731	1	46,787	79	-49,139	25	2,352	14
Sugar	713,245	0	83,512	54	-85,255	52	1,743	10
Wheat	288,754	0	8,384	30	623	61	-9,007	64

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 280,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 299,692 net contracts.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	36.8	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	55.3	3.5
– Net Position:	280,523	-304,217	23,694
– Gross Longs:	394,943	601,996	81,558
– Gross Shorts:	114,420	906,213	57,864
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	48.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.6	23.1	-22.8

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -38,514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	52.4	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	30.0	3.4
– Net Position:	-38,514	37,309	1,205
– Gross Longs:	25,605	87,320	6,881
– Gross Shorts:	64,119	50,011	5,676
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	55.3	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-0.3	-8.1

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -130,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	40.6	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	31.2	2.8
– Net Position:	-130,519	91,950	38,569
– Gross Longs:	197,937	397,060	66,331
– Gross Shorts:	328,456	305,110	27,762
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	59.9	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	8.9	-21.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 28,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,099 net contracts.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	52.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	64.7	5.7
– Net Position:	28,021	-32,693	4,672
– Gross Longs:	72,955	142,761	20,221
– Gross Shorts:	44,934	175,454	15,549
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	10.5	-43.3

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	52.7	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	61.3	9.9
– Net Position:	6,486	-22,775	16,289
– Gross Longs:	39,513	139,296	42,410
– Gross Shorts:	33,027	162,071	26,121
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.0	47.0	54.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.7	-12.3	-3.9

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	66.8	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.4	56.1	0.2
– Net Position:	-7,486	7,242	244
– Gross Longs:	18,524	45,230	367
– Gross Shorts:	26,010	37,988	123
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.8	21.1	19.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.8	-6.8	-10.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News

09 Jul

COT Week 27 Charts: Stock Market Speculators bets mostly lower led by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE Mini

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The stock market speculator bets were mostly lower for a second straight week this week as three out of the eight stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was the Nasdaq Mini (6,705 contracts) with the VIX (4,068 contracts) and Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (1,990 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

Meanwhile, leading the decreases in speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-44,456 contracts) and with MSCI EAFE Mini (-31,197 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (-13,973 contracts), MSCI Emerging Markets Mini (-4,586 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-130 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq Mini (92.3 percent) is at the highest level of the stock markets currently followed by the VIX (86.4 percent). Both are in extreme bullish levels compared to the past three years of speculator sentiment. On the lower end, the Russell 2000 Mini (0 percent) and the MSCI EAFE Mini (0 percent) are in bearish-extreme levels and at their lowest level of positioning of the past three years.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the S&P500 Mini (-43.1 percent) and MSCI EAFE Mini (-37.5 percent) are leading the down-trending scores over the past six weeks. The Nasdaq Mini, meanwhile, leads the trends to the upside with a 9.6 percent trend change.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-05-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,309,241	8	-183,682	22	221,625	100	-37,943	18
Nikkei 225	14,508	11	-1,745	69	3,210	46	-1,465	10
Nasdaq-Mini	259,449	48	30,895	92	-25,919	11	-4,976	38
DowJones-Mini	67,437	24	-23,083	7	27,554	96	-4,471	15
VIX	266,933	17	-45,501	86	52,406	15	-6,905	58
Nikkei 225 Yen	60,276	44	3,916	46	25,226	88	-29,142	15

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -45,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,569 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	54.0	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	34.4	11.4
– Net Position:	-45,501	52,406	-6,905
– Gross Longs:	45,972	144,271	23,601
– Gross Shorts:	91,473	91,865	30,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.4	14.6	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.7	2.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -183,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -44,456 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -139,226 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	77.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	68.0	11.5
– Net Position:	-183,682	221,625	-37,943
– Gross Longs:	237,370	1,791,046	227,663
– Gross Shorts:	421,052	1,569,421	265,606
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.2	100.0	18.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.1	42.5	-3.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -23,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,990 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,073 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	67.4	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.6	26.5	22.0
– Net Position:	-23,083	27,554	-4,471
– Gross Longs:	11,053	45,425	10,349
– Gross Shorts:	34,136	17,871	14,820
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.1	96.3	14.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	1.6	-12.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,190 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	52.9	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	62.9	15.6
– Net Position:	30,895	-25,919	-4,976
– Gross Longs:	83,514	137,186	35,380
– Gross Shorts:	52,619	163,105	40,356
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.3	10.6	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-9.1	-4.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -118,593 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,973 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,620 net contracts.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	88.2	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	67.1	4.2
– Net Position:	-118,593	123,533	-4,940
– Gross Longs:	42,435	517,591	19,684
– Gross Shorts:	161,028	394,058	24,624
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	12.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.8	24.2	-7.5

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,615 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	55.8	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.4	33.7	25.6
– Net Position:	-1,745	3,210	-1,465
– Gross Longs:	4,119	8,101	2,250
– Gross Shorts:	5,864	4,891	3,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.2	45.7	9.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	0.2	2.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -33,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -31,197 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,986 net contracts.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	90.6	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	84.8	1.8
– Net Position:	-33,183	24,926	8,257
– Gross Longs:	21,492	384,305	15,954
– Gross Shorts:	54,675	359,379	7,697
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	91.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.5	33.7	41.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Stock Market News

02 Jul

Currency Speculators reduced their British Pound and Japanese Yen bearish bets to multi-week lows

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for currency markets was the Mexican peso (12,890 contracts) and the British pound sterling (10,129 contracts) with the Japanese yen (5,884 contracts), Euro (5,009 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,992 contracts), New Zealand dollar (112 contracts) and Bitcoin (39 contracts) also showing a positive week.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Brazilian real (-7,317 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-2,374 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-1,781 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-1,434 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the currency contracts this week was the cool off in bearish bets for both the British pound and the Japanese yen.

British pound sterling speculator positions rose for the fifth straight week and this week’s improvement pushed the overall position to the least bearish standing of the past eleven weeks. The GBP speculative standing has been in a continual bearish position since the middle of February but has come down from a total of -80,372 contracts on May 24th to a total of -53,118 contracts this week after the past five week’s improvement (by 27,254 contracts). The GBPUSD exchange rate has remained in a downtrend despite the recent cool off in speculator sentiment and touched below the 1.20 exchange this week for the second time this month.

Japanese yen speculator bets rose for the seventh straight week this week and reached the least bearish position of the past 27 weeks. Japanese yen bets have been sharply bearish for over a year were at -110,454 contracts as recently as May 10th. The past seven weeks have shaved 57,884 contracts off the bearish level and brought the current speculative position to a total of -52,570 contracts this week. The exchange rate for the USDJPY currency pair remains at the top of its range (yen weakness) and near 20-year highs around 135.00.

In other currency contracts, the US Dollar Index speculator positions slid a bit this week after rising for six out of the previous seven weeks. The Dollar Index spec position had hit a new 5-year high last week at over +45,000 contracts and was at a 100 percent strength score (measured against past 3-years spec positioning). This week’s decline doesn’t dent the overall position much as the net position remains over +43,000 contracts for the third straight week. The Dollar Index futures price has remained strongly in an uptrend and reached a high over 105 this week before closing just below that figure at 104.91.

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bitcoin (100 percent), the US Dollar Index (97 percent) and the Brazilian real (87 percent) are currently near the top of their ranges and in bullish extreme levels. The Mexican peso at 21 percent is at the lowest strength level currently and followed by the Euro at 32 percent.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese yen (31 percent) is on the greatest move of the past six weeks. The Canadian dollar (27 percent), New Zealand dollar (21 percent) and the Swiss franc (20 percent) round out the top movers in the latest data. The Mexican peso at -18 percent leads the downtrending currencies followed by the Euro at -10 percent and the Brazilian real at -1 percent.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-28-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	63,143	96	43,229	97	-46,558	2	3,329	53
EUR	671,472	70	-10,596	32	-19,812	70	30,408	25
GBP	228,736	57	-53,118	36	70,230	71	-17,112	20
JPY	213,767	64	-52,570	37	67,895	69	-15,325	22
CHF	40,123	21	-8,591	35	17,862	72	-9,271	26
CAD	142,584	25	9,097	50	-12,247	59	3,150	36
AUD	139,891	37	-42,980	45	47,163	54	-4,183	42
NZD	40,337	25	-5,311	62	8,551	44	-3,240	14
MXN	193,536	46	-13,980	21	9,107	77	4,873	64
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	60,107	54	37,028	87	-38,531	14	1,503	82
Bitcoin	13,707	78	1,085	100	-947	0	-138	10

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,229 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,010 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.5	3.7	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	77.4	3.2
– Net Position:	43,229	-46,558	3,329
– Gross Longs:	54,646	2,340	5,371
– Gross Shorts:	11,417	48,898	2,042
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.0	1.9	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-11.2	0.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	56.6	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	59.6	8.0
– Net Position:	-10,596	-19,812	30,408
– Gross Longs:	189,414	380,084	83,853
– Gross Shorts:	200,010	399,896	53,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	70.4	24.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	9.0	-1.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	74.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	44.0	15.4
– Net Position:	-53,118	70,230	-17,112
– Gross Longs:	35,184	170,967	18,055
– Gross Shorts:	88,302	100,737	35,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.7	71.2	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-14.3	-4.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -52,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.1	71.1	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.6	39.4	17.6
– Net Position:	-52,570	67,895	-15,325
– Gross Longs:	36,462	152,071	22,379
– Gross Shorts:	89,032	84,176	37,704
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	68.8	22.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.6	-23.0	-5.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,591 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	64.8	23.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	20.3	47.0
– Net Position:	-8,591	17,862	-9,271
– Gross Longs:	4,523	25,994	9,588
– Gross Shorts:	13,114	8,132	18,859
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.7	72.0	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.3	-21.2	18.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 9,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,992 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	45.9	20.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	54.5	18.5
– Net Position:	9,097	-12,247	3,150
– Gross Longs:	45,893	65,407	29,537
– Gross Shorts:	36,796	77,654	26,387
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	58.5	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.5	-20.7	2.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	61.7	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.4	28.0	17.1
– Net Position:	-42,980	47,163	-4,183
– Gross Longs:	28,887	86,347	19,791
– Gross Shorts:	71,867	39,184	23,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	54.1	42.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-5.4	13.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	64.9	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	43.7	13.6
– Net Position:	-5,311	8,551	-3,240
– Gross Longs:	11,720	26,167	2,256
– Gross Shorts:	17,031	17,616	5,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	43.6	14.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-19.8	4.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,890 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.3	40.9	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.5	36.1	1.1
– Net Position:	-13,980	9,107	4,873
– Gross Longs:	107,031	79,060	7,059
– Gross Shorts:	121,011	69,953	2,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.4	76.6	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	17.2	3.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,028 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.7	22.8	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	86.9	3.0
– Net Position:	37,028	-38,531	1,503
– Gross Longs:	43,088	13,691	3,307
– Gross Shorts:	6,060	52,222	1,804
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.8	13.7	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.9	1.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 39 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.3	0.8	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.3	7.7	7.5
– Net Position:	1,085	-947	-138
– Gross Longs:	11,137	115	890
– Gross Shorts:	10,052	1,062	1,028
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	2.8	9.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-4.2	-4.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

02 Jul

COT Week 26 Charts: Precious Metals Speculators bets head lower led by Copper & Silver

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The COT metals market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while five markets had lower contracts.

The only precious metals market with higher speculator bets was Palladium with a net gain of just 221 contracts on the week.

Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Copper (-9,758 contracts) and Silver (-7,528 contracts) with Gold (-5,594 contracts) and Platinum (-2,797 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that all of the metals are in bearish extreme levels at the moment. Copper (20 percent) is at the highest level of all but still right at the cusp of the bearish extreme level while all the other metals are at just 2 percent or under, signifying that these are right at the bottom of their 3-year speculator sentiment range.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) show a similar picture as well with all the metals seeing downtrends for the past six weeks. Gold at -9 percent is leading the trends lower followed by Silver at -8 percent with the other metals all at -5 percent or lower.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-28-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,651,566	0	299,692	3	-327,938	99	28,246	55
Gold	497,005	13	157,693	2	-182,007	98	24,314	16
Silver	135,775	3	10,891	0	-18,485	100	7,594	0
Copper	182,352	14	-30,696	20	31,197	81	-501	22
Palladium	7,765	6	-3,825	1	4,441	100	-616	8
Platinum	68,232	36	-1,306	2	-3,381	100	4,687	27
Natural Gas	987,740	0	-129,419	40	90,840	60	38,579	71
Brent	173,920	19	-42,677	40	41,434	62	1,243	26
Heating Oil	269,168	23	7,508	53	-25,743	44	18,235	62
Soybeans	653,337	11	137,193	56	-106,705	52	-30,488	20
Corn	1,338,054	0	328,102	72	-274,110	33	-53,992	12
Coffee	194,896	2	45,200	78	-47,147	26	1,947	9
Sugar	734,324	0	122,709	62	-132,877	43	10,168	20
Wheat	291,041	0	7,679	29	-1,871	57	-5,808	80

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 157,693 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,287 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.1	23.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	60.2	4.1
– Net Position:	157,693	-182,007	24,314
– Gross Longs:	268,712	117,038	44,823
– Gross Shorts:	111,019	299,045	20,509
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.6	98.3	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	12.0	-25.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,419 net contracts.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.0	40.8	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	54.4	11.1
– Net Position:	10,891	-18,485	7,594
– Gross Longs:	52,932	55,406	22,724
– Gross Shorts:	42,041	73,891	15,130
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	7.7	-5.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -30,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,758 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	56.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	39.7	8.2
– Net Position:	-30,696	31,197	-501
– Gross Longs:	47,782	103,666	14,516
– Gross Shorts:	78,478	72,469	15,017
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.3	80.9	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	5.6	-10.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	41.6	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	46.6	5.6
– Net Position:	-1,306	-3,381	4,687
– Gross Longs:	28,451	28,413	8,503
– Gross Shorts:	29,757	31,794	3,816
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.5	100.0	27.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	4.6	2.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,825 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	73.1	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.0	15.9	19.4
– Net Position:	-3,825	4,441	-616
– Gross Longs:	1,146	5,674	893
– Gross Shorts:	4,971	1,233	1,509
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.3	99.6	8.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	4.6	-12.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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