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COT Bonds Speculators drop 10-Year Treasury Note bets to 100-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 11th 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT bonds data is the positioning in the 10-Year Bond futures market. The 10-Year saw the largest decline of speculator bets this week (-66,916 contracts) in all the markets we cover and the 10-Year futures have now had higher bearish bets in four out of the past five weeks. The speculator’s position is at the lowest level in 100 weeks, dating back to February 11th of 2020 and is now extremely bearish with a 19.1 percent strength score (current level compared to past three years of data, above 80% is bullish extreme, below 20% is bearish extreme) while the commercials are bullish extreme with a 97.1 percent score. The small traders are on the speculator’s side with a bearish extreme score of 18.4 percent. Only time will tell if this represents a turning point for 10-Year bonds but with all three trader groups in extreme positioning, it is definitely a market to watch.

The contracts with higher speculator bets this week were the 2-Year Bond (9,818 contracts), Eurodollar (28,727 contracts), FedFunds (17,737 contracts) and the 5-Year (103,218 contracts) while decreasing bets for the week were seen in 10-Year (-66,916 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-2,361 contracts), Long US Bond (-15,488 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-19,930 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-11-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	11,368,090	52	-1,780,329	1	2,166,311	99	-385,982	22
FedFunds	1,534,232	40	-67,554	31	70,020	68	-2,466	55
2-Year	2,017,016	9	51,817	93	16,145	23	-67,962	2
Long T-Bond	1,214,729	51	-65,038	70	69,672	42	-4,634	49
10-Year	3,809,163	51	-343,839	19	602,618	97	-258,779	18
5-Year	3,830,246	39	-299,657	28	560,198	87	-260,541	10

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,780,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 28,727 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,809,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	72.1	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	53.0	7.2
– Net Position:	-1,780,329	2,166,311	-385,982
– Gross Longs:	815,291	8,192,154	427,028
– Gross Shorts:	2,595,620	6,025,843	813,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.1	99.2	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	13.2	12.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -67,554 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.7	80.6	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	76.0	2.4
– Net Position:	-67,554	70,020	-2,466
– Gross Longs:	57,362	1,236,319	33,966
– Gross Shorts:	124,916	1,166,299	36,432
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	68.4	55.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-5.4	32.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,999 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	69.9	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	69.1	9.6
– Net Position:	51,817	16,145	-67,962
– Gross Longs:	396,495	1,410,443	125,294
– Gross Shorts:	344,678	1,394,298	193,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.7	23.4	2.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-4.1	-8.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -299,657 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 103,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -402,875 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	81.7	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	67.1	13.5
– Net Position:	-299,657	560,198	-260,541
– Gross Longs:	314,572	3,129,134	254,922
– Gross Shorts:	614,229	2,568,936	515,463
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.9	86.9	9.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-7.0	-3.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -343,839 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -66,916 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -276,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	77.8	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	62.0	15.1
– Net Position:	-343,839	602,618	-258,779
– Gross Longs:	413,462	2,964,259	315,565
– Gross Shorts:	757,301	2,361,641	574,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	97.1	18.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.3	-1.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 94,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	72.1	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	65.5	20.8
– Net Position:	94,244	92,061	-186,305
– Gross Longs:	263,501	1,000,359	101,920
– Gross Shorts:	169,257	908,298	288,225
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.6	70.1	3.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	7.3	-6.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -65,038 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,550 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	71.9	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	66.2	14.3
– Net Position:	-65,038	69,672	-4,634
– Gross Longs:	147,857	873,843	169,452
– Gross Shorts:	212,895	804,171	174,086
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.1	42.3	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	12.8	-19.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -309,531 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -19,930 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -289,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	81.1	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	57.4	10.8
– Net Position:	-309,531	294,877	14,654
– Gross Longs:	76,368	1,009,930	148,602
– Gross Shorts:	385,899	715,053	133,948
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.9	59.3	38.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-0.9	0.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

15 Jan

COT Metals Speculators drop Gold bullish bets for 2nd week to 12-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Highlighting the COT metals data is the decrease in the Gold futures bets. The speculator’s net position in the Gold futures market has declined for two consecutive weeks and has also fallen in six out of the past eight weeks (by a total of -60,043 contracts in that time-frame). The overall net Gold position is now below the +200,000 contract level for the first time in twelve weeks and the open interest levels are currently very low, indicating a quiet market. The Gold futures price has remained stuck fluctuating between $1,700 and $1,900 for the past year and is currently in a triangle pattern. The breakout from this could determine the next trend direction.

Joining Silver (-3,371 contracts) in falling this week are Gold (-11,618 contracts), Copper (-3,053 contracts), Platinum (-1,473 contracts), Palladium (214 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-11-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,966,615	15	360,505	24	-396,940	68	36,435	66
Gold	546,516	32	199,737	51	-225,073	49	25,336	36
Silver	144,442	11	27,548	50	-37,360	62	9,812	0
Copper	189,678	19	16,706	54	-22,541	44	5,835	59
Palladium	9,110	12	-2,978	4	3,292	96	-314	26
Platinum	59,061	20	5,289	10	-10,952	93	5,663	41
Natural Gas	1,136,714	6	-122,564	42	95,136	61	27,428	48
Brent	215,266	51	-16,691	90	13,101	11	3,590	58
Heating Oil	356,728	35	15,875	66	-39,484	29	23,609	80
Soybeans	678,613	17	138,272	65	-104,896	41	-33,376	16
Corn	1,504,234	22	407,492	82	-366,833	20	-40,659	20
Coffee	265,514	33	60,168	92	-63,594	10	3,426	12
Sugar	883,009	14	122,925	62	-134,491	43	11,566	22
Wheat	369,218	18	-1,466	46	12,111	53	-10,645	51

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 199,737 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 211,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.1	21.3	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	62.5	4.2
– Net Position:	199,737	-225,073	25,336
– Gross Longs:	290,102	116,292	48,323
– Gross Shorts:	90,365	341,365	22,987
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	48.9	36.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	10.2	-21.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,548 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.8	32.2	16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	58.0	9.6
– Net Position:	27,548	-37,360	9,812
– Gross Longs:	66,193	46,451	23,703
– Gross Shorts:	38,645	83,811	13,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.8	62.2	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	14.4	-21.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,053 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,759 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.9	40.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	51.9	6.1
– Net Position:	16,706	-22,541	5,835
– Gross Longs:	73,808	75,817	17,477
– Gross Shorts:	57,102	98,358	11,642
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.4	44.0	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-4.7	-4.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,762 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.0	34.2	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	52.8	5.8
– Net Position:	5,289	-10,952	5,663
– Gross Longs:	27,751	20,228	9,085
– Gross Shorts:	22,462	31,180	3,422
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.0	93.4	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	5.4	-1.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	56.8	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.4	20.7	16.0
– Net Position:	-2,978	3,292	-314
– Gross Longs:	2,704	5,178	1,142
– Gross Shorts:	5,682	1,886	1,456
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	95.5	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.0	0.1	-0.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Metals Opinions

15 Jan

COT Energy Speculators boost their WTI Crude Oil bullish bets after 149-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Highlighting the COT energy data is the rebound in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures rose this week following eight straight weeks of declines that had brought the overall net position to its lowest level in the past 149 weeks, dating all the way back to March 5th of 2019. This week’s rebound (+27,680 contracts) for speculators marked the largest one-week gain in just over a year and steadied the net position back above the +350,000 level. The WTI price has been on a higher trajectory in the past month and closed the week right around the $84 per barrel level.

Joining WTI Crude Oil (27,680 contracts) with speculator gains this week were Natural Gas (19,343 contracts) and Heating Oil (8,383 contracts) while lower bets were seen in Brent Crude Oil (-5,436 contracts), Gasoline (-4,815 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-5,088 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-11-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,966,615	15	360,505	24	-396,940	68	36,435	66
Gold	546,516	32	199,737	51	-225,073	49	25,336	36
Silver	144,442	11	27,548	50	-37,360	62	9,812	0
Copper	189,678	19	16,706	54	-22,541	44	5,835	59
Palladium	9,110	12	-2,978	4	3,292	96	-314	26
Platinum	59,061	20	5,289	10	-10,952	93	5,663	41
Natural Gas	1,136,714	6	-122,564	42	95,136	61	27,428	48
Brent	215,266	51	-16,691	90	13,101	11	3,590	58
Heating Oil	356,728	35	15,875	66	-39,484	29	23,609	80
Soybeans	678,613	17	138,272	65	-104,896	41	-33,376	16
Corn	1,504,234	22	407,492	82	-366,833	20	-40,659	20
Coffee	265,514	33	60,168	92	-63,594	10	3,426	12
Sugar	883,009	14	122,925	62	-134,491	43	11,566	22
Wheat	369,218	18	-1,466	46	12,111	53	-10,645	51

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 360,505 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 27,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 332,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	36.9	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.3	57.1	2.8
– Net Position:	360,505	-396,940	36,435
– Gross Longs:	484,370	726,296	91,354
– Gross Shorts:	123,865	1,123,236	54,919
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.0	68.3	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	11.6	-13.0

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -16,691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	43.2	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	37.1	1.7
– Net Position:	-16,691	13,101	3,590
– Gross Longs:	45,528	93,021	7,325
– Gross Shorts:	62,219	79,920	3,735
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.1	10.7	57.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	1.6	4.2

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -122,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 19,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -141,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	42.7	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	34.3	2.2
– Net Position:	-122,564	95,136	27,428
– Gross Longs:	221,396	484,896	52,328
– Gross Shorts:	343,960	389,760	24,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	60.9	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	0.5	-29.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	48.6	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	67.9	4.2
– Net Position:	59,502	-65,555	6,053
– Gross Longs:	101,661	164,923	20,449
– Gross Shorts:	42,159	230,478	14,396
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.7	71.4	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-15.4	9.0

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,875 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	50.8	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	61.9	6.6
– Net Position:	15,875	-39,484	23,609
– Gross Longs:	55,887	181,172	47,269
– Gross Shorts:	40,012	220,656	23,660
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.8	29.2	80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-13.5	27.7

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,517 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	40.3	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	96.8	1.1	0.0
– Net Position:	-21,605	21,047	558
– Gross Longs:	30,391	21,647	580
– Gross Shorts:	51,996	600	22
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	36.1 to 1	26.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.8	74.2	39.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.9	37.2	-0.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Opinions

15 Jan

COT Soft Commodities cut their Sugar bullish bets sharply to 82-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the recent sharp declines in the Sugar futures positions. The speculative net position in Sugar futures has dropped for two consecutive weeks and also for six out of the past seven weeks. Bullish bets have now decreased by a total of -126,701 contracts over the past seven weeks and has brought the current bullish position down to its lowest level since June 16th of 2020, a span of 82 weeks. Despite the selloff, Sugar bets remain in bullish territory with a total of 122,925 contracts.

The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Coffee (5,603 contracts), Soybeans (7,716 contracts), Soybean Oil (203 contracts) and Cocoa (8,464 contracts) while markets with lower speculator positions were Sugar (-50,062 contracts), Corn (-37,989 contracts), Soybean Meal (-1,855 contracts), Live Cattle (-10,059 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,735 contracts), Cotton (-3,669 contracts) and Wheat (-5,546 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-11-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,966,615	15	360,505	24	-396,940	68	36,435	66
Gold	546,516	32	199,737	51	-225,073	49	25,336	36
Silver	144,442	11	27,548	50	-37,360	62	9,812	0
Copper	189,678	19	16,706	54	-22,541	44	5,835	59
Palladium	9,110	12	-2,978	4	3,292	96	-314	26
Platinum	59,061	20	5,289	10	-10,952	93	5,663	41
Natural Gas	1,136,714	6	-122,564	42	95,136	61	27,428	48
Brent	215,266	51	-16,691	90	13,101	11	3,590	58
Heating Oil	356,728	35	15,875	66	-39,484	29	23,609	80
Soybeans	678,613	17	138,272	65	-104,896	41	-33,376	16
Corn	1,504,234	22	407,492	82	-366,833	20	-40,659	20
Coffee	265,514	33	60,168	92	-63,594	10	3,426	12
Sugar	883,009	14	122,925	62	-134,491	43	11,566	22
Wheat	369,218	18	-1,466	46	12,111	53	-10,645	51

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 407,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -37,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 445,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.7	45.6	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	70.0	11.9
– Net Position:	407,492	-366,833	-40,659
– Gross Longs:	491,328	686,116	138,699
– Gross Shorts:	83,836	1,052,949	179,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.1	19.7	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-3.7	7.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 122,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -50,062 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	52.9	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	68.2	7.3
– Net Position:	122,925	-134,491	11,566
– Gross Longs:	211,346	467,336	75,986
– Gross Shorts:	88,421	601,827	64,420
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	42.7	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	20.6	-20.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 60,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,565 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	45.2	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.4	69.2	2.5
– Net Position:	60,168	-63,594	3,426
– Gross Longs:	71,875	120,077	10,072
– Gross Shorts:	11,707	183,671	6,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.3	10.0	12.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	4.4	2.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 138,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 130,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	51.7	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.4	67.2	12.2
– Net Position:	138,272	-104,896	-33,376
– Gross Longs:	181,722	350,999	49,108
– Gross Shorts:	43,450	455,895	82,484
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	41.1	16.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-20.7	8.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 97,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	45.6	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.1	76.0	5.4
– Net Position:	97,174	-122,834	25,660
– Gross Longs:	117,747	184,194	47,671
– Gross Shorts:	20,573	307,028	22,011
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.7	12.5	73.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.1	-21.7	9.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 61,820 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,059 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	37.7	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	55.5	12.7
– Net Position:	61,820	-57,315	-4,505
– Gross Longs:	109,427	121,792	36,522
– Gross Shorts:	47,607	179,107	41,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.5	60.7	76.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	3.7	20.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 50,654 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	37.1	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	53.4	15.5
– Net Position:	50,654	-34,939	-15,715
– Gross Longs:	83,199	79,836	17,516
– Gross Shorts:	32,545	114,775	33,231
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.4	46.7	12.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	6.8	12.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 93,822 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,669 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.2	33.7	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.8	77.2	3.1
– Net Position:	93,822	-106,469	12,647
– Gross Longs:	105,640	82,317	20,226
– Gross Shorts:	11,818	188,786	7,579
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.5	15.7	92.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	-0.9	29.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 14,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,464 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,469 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	51.5	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	59.4	3.8
– Net Position:	14,933	-18,436	3,503
– Gross Longs:	60,198	120,080	12,262
– Gross Shorts:	45,265	138,516	8,759
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.9	62.4	48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-22.9	35.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,466 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,546 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	41.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	38.2	10.8
– Net Position:	-1,466	12,111	-10,645
– Gross Longs:	100,415	152,998	29,242
– Gross Shorts:	101,881	140,887	39,887
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.8	52.6	50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	21.9	-13.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions Soft Commodities

08 Jan

COT Forex Speculators US Dollar Index bullish bets climb to 117-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 4th 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data is the continued strength in the US Dollar Index futures bets. Speculators raised their bullish bets in the Dollar Index for a third consecutive week and for the seventh time in the past ten weeks. Since turning bullish on July 6th, Dollar Index bullish bets have had positive weekly gains in twenty-two out of the past twenty-seven weeks. This positive sentiment has brought the overall speculator standing (current total of +39,078 contracts) to the highest level since October 8th of 2019, a span of 117 weeks. The current speculator strength score (current level compared to past three years of data, above 80 is bullish-extreme, below 20 is bearish-extreme) for the Dollar Index is currently at 93.2 percent for a bullish-extreme reading.

Joining the US Dollar Index (2,289 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Euro (5,080 contracts), Brazil real (4,210 contracts), Swiss franc (1,189 contracts) and the British pound sterling (11,548 contracts).

The currencies with declining speculator bets were the yen (-9,160 contracts), Australian dollar (-7,625 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-424 contracts), Canadian dollar (-691 contracts), Russian ruble (-1,135 contracts) and Bitcoin (-62 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-482 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-04-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	58,089	85	39,078	93	-44,717	0	5,639	78
EUR	678,218	75	-1,554	35	-26,458	68	28,012	21
GBP	200,007	39	-39,171	46	49,516	59	-10,345	34
JPY	234,068	78	-62,262	29	84,744	78	-22,482	1
CHF	42,251	17	-9,529	53	14,628	47	-5,099	48
CAD	135,633	20	-11,025	43	8,542	62	2,483	35
AUD	180,107	68	-89,366	1	100,809	94	-11,443	25
NZD	40,302	25	-8,845	56	10,335	46	-1,490	35
MXN	119,748	12	-9,490	23	7,127	76	2,363	53
RUB	47,674	49	7,329	31	-8,873	65	1,544	76
BRL	28,218	24	-1,076	67	1,284	35	-208	64
Bitcoin	10,563	55	-604	89	-93	0	697	29

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 39,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,789 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.2	2.9	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	79.9	3.3
– Net Position:	39,078	-44,717	5,639
– Gross Longs:	47,750	1,692	7,571
– Gross Shorts:	8,672	46,409	1,932
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.0 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.2	0.3	78.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-5.9	2.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,554 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,080 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,634 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	57.3	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	61.2	7.8
– Net Position:	-1,554	-26,458	28,012
– Gross Longs:	199,073	388,742	81,029
– Gross Shorts:	200,627	415,200	53,017
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	68.2	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-2.7	-8.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -39,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	75.2	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	50.4	15.5
– Net Position:	-39,171	49,516	-10,345
– Gross Longs:	25,980	150,332	20,573
– Gross Shorts:	65,151	100,816	30,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.8	59.0	34.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	2.2	1.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -62,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,102 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	72.9	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	36.7	17.4
– Net Position:	-62,262	84,744	-22,482
– Gross Longs:	40,816	170,537	18,339
– Gross Shorts:	103,078	85,793	40,821
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.7	78.3	1.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.1	-15.6	-7.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,718 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	62.0	27.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	27.4	39.2
– Net Position:	-9,529	14,628	-5,099
– Gross Longs:	4,510	26,204	11,466
– Gross Shorts:	14,039	11,576	16,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.3	47.3	48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-7.8	14.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	45.1	20.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	38.8	18.6
– Net Position:	-11,025	8,542	2,483
– Gross Longs:	41,905	61,198	27,649
– Gross Shorts:	52,930	52,656	25,166
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.7	61.7	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	13.5	-24.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -89,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,625 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,741 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	81.0	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.6	25.0	16.4
– Net Position:	-89,366	100,809	-11,443
– Gross Longs:	12,632	145,915	18,060
– Gross Shorts:	101,998	45,106	29,503
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.6	94.1	24.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.5	20.4	-3.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -424 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	67.5	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.3	41.9	11.1
– Net Position:	-8,845	10,335	-1,490
– Gross Longs:	9,417	27,208	3,000
– Gross Shorts:	18,262	16,873	4,490
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	46.3	34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.2	38.8	-27.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	57.3	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.4	51.3	2.9
– Net Position:	-9,490	7,127	2,363
– Gross Longs:	44,876	68,595	5,860
– Gross Shorts:	54,366	61,468	3,497
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.3	75.8	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	-18.1	14.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,286 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.2	52.4	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.0	47.8	10.2
– Net Position:	-1,076	1,284	-208
– Gross Longs:	10,776	14,785	2,657
– Gross Shorts:	11,852	13,501	2,865
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	35.1	64.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.4	-18.8	4.2

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.9	53.7	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	72.3	2.1
– Net Position:	7,329	-8,873	1,544
– Gross Longs:	19,490	25,610	2,557
– Gross Shorts:	12,161	34,483	1,013
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.7	65.2	76.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.4	24.0	7.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -62 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -542 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.5	4.1	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.2	5.0	7.6
– Net Position:	-604	-93	697
– Gross Longs:	7,767	437	1,498
– Gross Shorts:	8,371	530	801
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.2	21.7	28.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	-78.3	28.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

08 Jan

COT Bonds Speculators push 5-Year Treasury Notes bearish bets to 8-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Highlighting the COT bonds data is the sharp drop in the 5-Year Bond futures bets. The speculators net position this week fell by -104,188 contracts which marked the largest one-week decline since September and brought the overall net position down to -402,875 contracts. This is the most bearish speculator standing since November 9th and the second most in the past year. The current speculator strength score (current level compared to past three years of data where above 80 is bullish-extreme and below 20 is bearish-extreme) shows a bearish-extreme reading at just a 9.1 percent score for the week.

The speculator positions that rose this week were the Eurodollar (18,792 contracts), FedFunds (8,038 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (11,116 contracts) while decreasing bets were seen in the 2-Year Bond (-45,805 contracts), 5-Year (-104,188 contracts), 10-Year (-63,613 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-17,211 contracts) and the Long US Bond (-29,595 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-04-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	11,248,084	50	-1,809,056	0	2,193,324	100	-384,268	23
FedFunds	1,306,160	24	-85,291	29	99,441	72	-14,150	27
2-Year	1,947,598	7	41,999	91	26,847	26	-68,846	2
Long T-Bond	1,210,353	51	-49,550	76	27,261	29	22,289	70
10-Year	3,875,093	56	-276,923	29	516,075	86	-239,152	23
5-Year	3,702,047	32	-402,875	9	661,633	100	-258,758	10

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,809,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,827,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	72.1	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	52.6	7.4
– Net Position:	-1,809,056	2,193,324	-384,268
– Gross Longs:	778,014	8,113,367	453,162
– Gross Shorts:	2,587,070	5,920,043	837,430
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.4	99.8	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.5	-2.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -85,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.2	83.4	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	75.8	2.9
– Net Position:	-85,291	99,441	-14,150
– Gross Longs:	42,380	1,089,969	23,990
– Gross Shorts:	127,671	990,528	38,140
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	72.0	26.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	0.5	-2.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 41,999 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -45,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,804 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	70.0	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	68.6	9.7
– Net Position:	41,999	26,847	-68,846
– Gross Longs:	380,295	1,363,672	120,511
– Gross Shorts:	338,296	1,336,825	189,357
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.7	25.7	1.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-15.7	-8.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -402,875 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -104,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -298,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	83.3	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	65.4	13.6
– Net Position:	-402,875	661,633	-258,758
– Gross Longs:	255,298	3,082,881	243,889
– Gross Shorts:	658,173	2,421,248	502,647
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.1	100.0	10.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.5	10.6	10.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -276,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -63,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -213,310 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	76.1	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	62.8	14.2
– Net Position:	-276,923	516,075	-239,152
– Gross Longs:	491,806	2,950,609	309,950
– Gross Shorts:	768,729	2,434,534	549,102
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	86.4	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.2	-13.6	14.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 96,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,816 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	70.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	65.8	20.1
– Net Position:	96,605	61,515	-158,120
– Gross Longs:	278,884	970,515	119,844
– Gross Shorts:	182,279	909,000	277,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.3	61.5	20.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	7.3	20.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -49,550 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -29,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	70.9	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	68.6	13.2
– Net Position:	-49,550	27,261	22,289
– Gross Longs:	144,496	858,118	182,266
– Gross Shorts:	194,046	830,857	159,977
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	28.8	70.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	7.9	11.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -289,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,116 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -300,717 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	80.7	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	58.9	10.7
– Net Position:	-289,601	268,878	20,723
– Gross Longs:	78,495	996,061	153,251
– Gross Shorts:	368,096	727,183	132,528
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.1	46.5	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-5.7	6.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions

08 Jan

COT Metals Speculators raised Copper bullish bets for 2nd week

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent gains in the Copper futures bets. Speculators have boosted their bullish bets for the second week in a row following nine straight weeks of declines previously through December 21st. The rise in the bullish bets has brought the current standing to the best level since November 16th and has prolonged the streak of weeks in bullish territory to eighty-three, dating back to June of 2020 when bets flipped from bearish to bullish.

Joining Copper (5,376 contracts) with rising speculator bets this week were Silver (4,461 contracts) and Platinum (2,293 contracts) while speculator bets fell for Gold (-1,801 contracts) and Palladium (-83 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-04-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,887,131	3	332,825	15	-369,956	77	37,131	67
Gold	502,717	20	211,355	55	-237,458	45	26,103	38
Silver	139,521	6	30,919	53	-43,973	56	13,054	16
Copper	185,905	16	19,759	57	-24,845	42	5,086	55
Palladium	9,480	13	-3,192	3	3,344	96	-152	36
Platinum	58,275	19	6,762	12	-12,185	92	5,423	38
Natural Gas	1,117,606	2	-141,907	36	110,122	66	31,785	59
Brent	203,528	42	-11,255	100	6,990	0	4,265	67
Heating Oil	320,686	14	7,492	53	-29,819	40	22,327	76
Soybeans	648,148	10	130,556	63	-91,893	44	-38,663	8
Corn	1,520,233	24	445,481	87	-382,800	17	-62,681	7
Coffee	262,231	31	54,565	88	-57,751	15	3,186	10
Sugar	873,918	11	172,987	72	-192,794	32	19,807	32
Wheat	359,139	12	4,080	50	6,236	47	-10,316	52

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 211,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 213,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.0	20.7	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	68.0	3.8
– Net Position:	211,355	-237,458	26,103
– Gross Longs:	296,583	104,258	45,400
– Gross Shorts:	85,228	341,716	19,297
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	45.1	38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	9.3	-20.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 30,919 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	28.6	18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	60.1	8.8
– Net Position:	30,919	-43,973	13,054
– Gross Longs:	65,108	39,892	25,396
– Gross Shorts:	34,189	83,865	12,342
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.2	55.8	15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	12.8	-23.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	40.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	53.4	6.4
– Net Position:	19,759	-24,845	5,086
– Gross Longs:	75,207	74,398	17,048
– Gross Shorts:	55,448	99,243	11,962
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.6	42.4	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-2.7	-12.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,762 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,469 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.5	33.8	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	54.7	5.7
– Net Position:	6,762	-12,185	5,423
– Gross Longs:	27,680	19,716	8,738
– Gross Shorts:	20,918	31,901	3,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.1	91.6	37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	11.6	-24.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -83 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,109 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	57.8	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.3	22.5	14.2
– Net Position:	-3,192	3,344	-152
– Gross Longs:	2,711	5,479	1,198
– Gross Shorts:	5,903	2,135	1,350
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.1	95.9	35.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	7.5	-0.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Metals Opinions

08 Jan

COT Energy Speculators drop Brent Crude Oil bearish bets to 167-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Highlighting the COT energy data is the improvement in the Brent Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the Brent (Last Day contract) futures have seen lower bearish bets for two straight weeks and this week’s +9,461 speculative net contracts rise marked the largest one-week improvement since October 26th. The overall speculator standing in Brent oil have been in a continuous bearish standing since December of 2013 due to the particular positioning dynamics of the market but have now fallen to the least bearish level since October 23rd of 2018, a span of 167 weeks. This has pushed the speculator strength score to 100 percent (compared to the past three year’s range).

Joining Brent Crude Oil (9,461 contracts) in gaining this week were Natural Gas (4,310 contracts), Heating Oil (3,861 contracts) and Gasoline (7,072 contracts).

The markets with falling speculator bets were WTI Crude Oil (-5,604 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-6,522 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-04-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,887,131	3	332,825	15	-369,956	77	37,131	67
Gold	502,717	20	211,355	55	-237,458	45	26,103	38
Silver	139,521	6	30,919	53	-43,973	56	13,054	16
Copper	185,905	16	19,759	57	-24,845	42	5,086	55
Palladium	9,480	13	-3,192	3	3,344	96	-152	36
Platinum	58,275	19	6,762	12	-12,185	92	5,423	38
Natural Gas	1,117,606	2	-141,907	36	110,122	66	31,785	59
Brent	203,528	42	-11,255	100	6,990	0	4,265	67
Heating Oil	320,686	14	7,492	53	-29,819	40	22,327	76
Soybeans	648,148	10	130,556	63	-91,893	44	-38,663	8
Corn	1,520,233	24	445,481	87	-382,800	17	-62,681	7
Coffee	262,231	31	54,565	88	-57,751	15	3,186	10
Sugar	873,918	11	172,987	72	-192,794	32	19,807	32
Wheat	359,139	12	4,080	50	6,236	47	-10,316	52

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 332,825 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 338,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	38.1	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.9	57.7	2.7
– Net Position:	332,825	-369,956	37,131
– Gross Longs:	462,594	718,728	87,930
– Gross Shorts:	129,769	1,088,684	50,799
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	77.1	67.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.8	27.5	-14.4

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,716 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	42.6	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	39.1	1.8
– Net Position:	-11,255	6,990	4,265
– Gross Longs:	44,535	86,665	7,855
– Gross Shorts:	55,790	79,675	3,590
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-1.4	-33.0

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -141,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -146,217 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	44.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	34.7	2.1
– Net Position:	-141,907	110,122	31,785
– Gross Longs:	216,171	497,375	55,643
– Gross Shorts:	358,078	387,253	23,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.0	65.6	59.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	4.1	-20.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 64,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,072 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,245 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	45.3	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.0	67.9	4.4
– Net Position:	64,317	-70,453	6,136
– Gross Longs:	101,919	141,535	19,994
– Gross Shorts:	37,602	211,988	13,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	66.5	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-9.1	4.5

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,861 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	51.4	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	60.7	6.9
– Net Position:	7,492	-29,819	22,327
– Gross Longs:	46,144	164,971	44,505
– Gross Shorts:	38,652	194,790	22,178
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.4	39.5	75.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	1.3	24.1

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,517 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,995 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.4	30.8	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	96.7	1.2	0.1
– Net Position:	-16,517	14,248	2,269
– Gross Longs:	30,066	14,848	2,296
– Gross Shorts:	46,583	600	27
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	24.7 to 1	85.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	48.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	4.0	54.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Opinions

08 Jan

COT Soft Commodities Speculators boost Soybean Meal bullish bets to 34-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the strong gains in the Soybean Meal futures bets. Speculative positions have risen for four consecutive weeks and by a total of 46,386 contracts over that time-frame. This bullishness has pushed the speculator positions to the highest level of the past thirty-four weeks, dating back to May 11th of 2021. The current strength level (spec level compared to its past 3-year range) is at 86.8 percent, which is a bullish-extreme reading and means that speculators are at the top of their range in terms of bullish sentiment.

The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Soybeans (5,271 contracts), Soybean Oil (9,115 contracts), Soybean Meal (7,285 contracts), Live Cattle (6,276 contracts), Cotton (6,602 contracts) and Cocoa (3,219 contracts).

Markets with lower bets this week were Corn (-12,695 contracts), Sugar (-11,699 contracts), Coffee (-700 contracts), Lean Hogs (-1,350 contracts) and Wheat (-1,855 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-04-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,887,131	3	332,825	15	-369,956	77	37,131	67
Gold	502,717	20	211,355	55	-237,458	45	26,103	38
Silver	139,521	6	30,919	53	-43,973	56	13,054	16
Copper	185,905	16	19,759	57	-24,845	42	5,086	55
Palladium	9,480	13	-3,192	3	3,344	96	-152	36
Platinum	58,275	19	6,762	12	-12,185	92	5,423	38
Natural Gas	1,117,606	2	-141,907	36	110,122	66	31,785	59
Brent	203,528	42	-11,255	100	6,990	0	4,265	67
Heating Oil	320,686	14	7,492	53	-29,819	40	22,327	76
Soybeans	648,148	10	130,556	63	-91,893	44	-38,663	8
Corn	1,520,233	24	445,481	87	-382,800	17	-62,681	7
Coffee	262,231	31	54,565	88	-57,751	15	3,186	10
Sugar	873,918	11	172,987	72	-192,794	32	19,807	32
Wheat	359,139	12	4,080	50	6,236	47	-10,316	52

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 445,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 458,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	43.8	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.4	69.0	13.2
– Net Position:	445,481	-382,800	-62,681
– Gross Longs:	526,997	665,410	138,025
– Gross Shorts:	81,516	1,048,210	200,706
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.9	17.4	7.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	-2.7	-5.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 172,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 184,686 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	50.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.4	72.4	6.5
– Net Position:	172,987	-192,794	19,807
– Gross Longs:	228,567	439,824	76,229
– Gross Shorts:	55,580	632,618	56,422
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.2	31.6	32.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	19.7	-34.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 54,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	47.4	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.3	69.4	2.5
– Net Position:	54,565	-57,751	3,186
– Gross Longs:	68,421	124,348	9,757
– Gross Shorts:	13,856	182,099	6,571
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	14.6	10.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	10.8	-2.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 130,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,285 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	53.2	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	67.4	13.3
– Net Position:	130,556	-91,893	-38,663
– Gross Longs:	173,162	344,990	47,288
– Gross Shorts:	42,606	436,883	85,951
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	44.2	7.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.9	-14.8	-2.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 99,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,744 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	46.0	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.1	77.7	5.5
– Net Position:	99,029	-123,394	24,365
– Gross Longs:	119,027	179,465	45,616
– Gross Shorts:	19,998	302,859	21,251
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.8	12.2	68.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-8.2	-9.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 71,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.3	35.1	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	53.7	12.5
– Net Position:	71,879	-61,531	-10,348
– Gross Longs:	116,678	116,043	31,098
– Gross Shorts:	44,799	177,574	41,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.3	57.2	61.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-6.7	4.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 56,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.5	36.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	55.2	14.5
– Net Position:	56,389	-41,396	-14,993
– Gross Longs:	85,903	78,722	16,461
– Gross Shorts:	29,514	120,118	31,454
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.4	39.9	15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-3.8	10.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 97,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	33.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.9	78.7	3.1
– Net Position:	97,491	-109,084	11,593
– Gross Longs:	109,464	82,584	19,240
– Gross Shorts:	11,973	191,668	7,647
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.8	14.2	85.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	6.3	-6.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	52.5	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	56.2	4.3
– Net Position:	6,469	-8,599	2,130
– Gross Longs:	58,024	122,449	12,205
– Gross Shorts:	51,555	131,048	10,075
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.2	71.2	32.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	8.1	3.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	39.6	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	37.8	11.3
– Net Position:	4,080	6,236	-10,316
– Gross Longs:	102,552	142,158	30,223
– Gross Shorts:	98,472	135,922	40,539
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.5	46.9	52.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.9	38.1	-8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions Soft Commodities

08 Jan

COT Stock Market Speculators bring VIX Volatility bearish bets back to November levels

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Highlighting the COT stock market data is the two-week ramp up in the VIX Volatility futures bearish bets. The speculative net position in the VIX futures saw bearish bets rise by over 13,000 contracts for a second week in a row following four weeks of declining bearish bets. Speculators have now been betting on less volatility (for S&P500) in these past two weeks and have pushed their bearish standing back up to the highest level since November 30th.

The stock markets that saw higher speculator bets this week were S&P500 Mini (5,738 contracts), Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (8,392 contracts), Nasdaq Mini (7,621 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (4,506 contracts), Nikkei 225 USD (263 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE Mini (18,905 contracts).

The markets with lower speculator bets this week were VIX (-13,259 contracts) and the MSCI Emerging Markets Mini (-2,219 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-04-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,297,290	2	109,032	85	-152,356	39	43,324	35
Nikkei 225	15,764	4	-7,532	42	6,889	64	643	35
Nasdaq-Mini	210,931	19	21,725	87	-26,892	10	5,167	56
DowJones-Mini	101,757	72	7,234	45	-9,171	51	1,937	49
VIX	301,754	27	-60,454	76	69,419	27	-8,965	22
Nikkei 225 Yen	44,197	20	710	24	13,246	70	-13,956	51

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -60,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	51.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.3	28.1	9.4
– Net Position:	-60,454	69,419	-8,965
– Gross Longs:	58,107	154,292	19,512
– Gross Shorts:	118,561	84,873	28,477
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.7	26.8	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-10.5	4.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 109,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,294 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	68.7	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	75.3	9.8
– Net Position:	109,032	-152,356	43,324
– Gross Longs:	407,706	1,577,841	268,686
– Gross Shorts:	298,674	1,730,197	225,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.4	38.6	35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	-0.5	3.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.2	43.0	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	52.0	13.3
– Net Position:	7,234	-9,171	1,937
– Gross Longs:	41,883	43,753	15,436
– Gross Shorts:	34,649	52,924	13,499
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.9	51.1	48.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-4.7	-29.8

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,104 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	46.6	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	59.3	16.4
– Net Position:	21,725	-26,892	5,167
– Gross Longs:	69,552	98,227	39,737
– Gross Shorts:	47,827	125,119	34,570
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.2	10.0	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	-2.5	23.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,299 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	76.3	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	75.7	3.8
– Net Position:	-15,793	3,155	12,638
– Gross Longs:	73,156	347,533	30,107
– Gross Shorts:	88,949	344,378	17,469
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	46.3	68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	1.7	-23.8

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	61.5	28.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.1	17.8	24.1
– Net Position:	-7,532	6,889	643
– Gross Longs:	1,633	9,690	4,441
– Gross Shorts:	9,165	2,801	3,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.7	64.2	35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-39.4	45.0	-8.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	88.7	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.0	95.9	1.7
– Net Position:	24,195	-27,775	3,580
– Gross Longs:	31,913	342,005	10,299
– Gross Shorts:	7,718	369,780	6,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.5	51.4	48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.5	-22.6	-14.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions Stock Market News

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