COT Forex Speculators US Dollar Index bullish bets climb to 117-week high

January 8, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 4th 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data is the continued strength in the US Dollar Index futures bets. Speculators raised their bullish bets in the Dollar Index for a third consecutive week and for the seventh time in the past ten weeks. Since turning bullish on July 6th, Dollar Index bullish bets have had positive weekly gains in twenty-two out of the past twenty-seven weeks. This positive sentiment has brought the overall speculator standing (current total of +39,078 contracts) to the highest level since October 8th of 2019, a span of 117 weeks. The current speculator strength score (current level compared to past three years of data, above 80 is bullish-extreme, below 20 is bearish-extreme) for the Dollar Index is currently at 93.2 percent for a bullish-extreme reading.

Joining the US Dollar Index (2,289 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Euro (5,080 contracts), Brazil real (4,210 contracts), Swiss franc (1,189 contracts) and the British pound sterling (11,548 contracts).

The currencies with declining speculator bets were the yen (-9,160 contracts), Australian dollar (-7,625 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-424 contracts), Canadian dollar (-691 contracts), Russian ruble (-1,135 contracts) and Bitcoin (-62 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-482 contracts).


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Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-04-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 58,089 85 39,078 93 -44,717 0 5,639 78
EUR 678,218 75 -1,554 35 -26,458 68 28,012 21
GBP 200,007 39 -39,171 46 49,516 59 -10,345 34
JPY 234,068 78 -62,262 29 84,744 78 -22,482 1
CHF 42,251 17 -9,529 53 14,628 47 -5,099 48
CAD 135,633 20 -11,025 43 8,542 62 2,483 35
AUD 180,107 68 -89,366 1 100,809 94 -11,443 25
NZD 40,302 25 -8,845 56 10,335 46 -1,490 35
MXN 119,748 12 -9,490 23 7,127 76 2,363 53
RUB 47,674 49 7,329 31 -8,873 65 1,544 76
BRL 28,218 24 -1,076 67 1,284 35 -208 64
Bitcoin 10,563 55 -604 89 -93 0 697 29

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 39,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,789 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 82.2 2.9 13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.9 79.9 3.3
– Net Position: 39,078 -44,717 5,639
– Gross Longs: 47,750 1,692 7,571
– Gross Shorts: 8,672 46,409 1,932
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.2 0.3 78.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.7 -5.9 2.9

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,554 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,080 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,634 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.4 57.3 11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.6 61.2 7.8
– Net Position: -1,554 -26,458 28,012
– Gross Longs: 199,073 388,742 81,029
– Gross Shorts: 200,627 415,200 53,017
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.5 68.2 20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.6 -2.7 -8.7

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -39,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.0 75.2 10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.6 50.4 15.5
– Net Position: -39,171 49,516 -10,345
– Gross Longs: 25,980 150,332 20,573
– Gross Shorts: 65,151 100,816 30,918
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.8 59.0 34.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 2.2 1.8

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -62,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,102 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.4 72.9 7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.0 36.7 17.4
– Net Position: -62,262 84,744 -22,482
– Gross Longs: 40,816 170,537 18,339
– Gross Shorts: 103,078 85,793 40,821
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.7 78.3 1.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.1 -15.6 -7.6

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,718 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.7 62.0 27.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.2 27.4 39.2
– Net Position: -9,529 14,628 -5,099
– Gross Longs: 4,510 26,204 11,466
– Gross Shorts: 14,039 11,576 16,565
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.3 47.3 48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.2 -7.8 14.8

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.9 45.1 20.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.0 38.8 18.6
– Net Position: -11,025 8,542 2,483
– Gross Longs: 41,905 61,198 27,649
– Gross Shorts: 52,930 52,656 25,166
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.7 61.7 34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.9 13.5 -24.0

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -89,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,625 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,741 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 81.0 10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.6 25.0 16.4
– Net Position: -89,366 100,809 -11,443
– Gross Longs: 12,632 145,915 18,060
– Gross Shorts: 101,998 45,106 29,503
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.2 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.6 94.1 24.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -24.5 20.4 -3.1

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -424 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 67.5 7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.3 41.9 11.1
– Net Position: -8,845 10,335 -1,490
– Gross Longs: 9,417 27,208 3,000
– Gross Shorts: 18,262 16,873 4,490
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.4 46.3 34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -38.2 38.8 -27.6

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.5 57.3 4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.4 51.3 2.9
– Net Position: -9,490 7,127 2,363
– Gross Longs: 44,876 68,595 5,860
– Gross Shorts: 54,366 61,468 3,497
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.3 75.8 53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.0 -18.1 14.8

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,286 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.2 52.4 9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.0 47.8 10.2
– Net Position: -1,076 1,284 -208
– Gross Longs: 10,776 14,785 2,657
– Gross Shorts: 11,852 13,501 2,865
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.2 35.1 64.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.4 -18.8 4.2

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Russian Ruble Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.9 53.7 5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.5 72.3 2.1
– Net Position: 7,329 -8,873 1,544
– Gross Longs: 19,490 25,610 2,557
– Gross Shorts: 12,161 34,483 1,013
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.7 65.2 76.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.4 24.0 7.7

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -62 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -542 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.5 4.1 14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.2 5.0 7.6
– Net Position: -604 -93 697
– Gross Longs: 7,767 437 1,498
– Gross Shorts: 8,371 530 801
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.2 21.7 28.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.4 -78.3 28.8

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.