COT Energy Speculators boost their WTI Crude Oil bullish bets after 149-week low

January 15, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 11th 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT energy data is the rebound in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures rose this week following eight straight weeks of declines that had brought the overall net position to its lowest level in the past 149 weeks, dating all the way back to March 5th of 2019. This week’s rebound (+27,680 contracts) for speculators marked the largest one-week gain in just over a year and steadied the net position back above the +350,000 level. The WTI price has been on a higher trajectory in the past month and closed the week right around the $84 per barrel level.

Joining WTI Crude Oil (27,680 contracts) with speculator gains this week were Natural Gas (19,343 contracts) and Heating Oil (8,383 contracts) while lower bets were seen in Brent Crude Oil (-5,436 contracts), Gasoline (-4,815 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-5,088 contracts).


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-11-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,966,615 15 360,505 24 -396,940 68 36,435 66
Gold 546,516 32 199,737 51 -225,073 49 25,336 36
Silver 144,442 11 27,548 50 -37,360 62 9,812 0
Copper 189,678 19 16,706 54 -22,541 44 5,835 59
Palladium 9,110 12 -2,978 4 3,292 96 -314 26
Platinum 59,061 20 5,289 10 -10,952 93 5,663 41
Natural Gas 1,136,714 6 -122,564 42 95,136 61 27,428 48
Brent 215,266 51 -16,691 90 13,101 11 3,590 58
Heating Oil 356,728 35 15,875 66 -39,484 29 23,609 80
Soybeans 678,613 17 138,272 65 -104,896 41 -33,376 16
Corn 1,504,234 22 407,492 82 -366,833 20 -40,659 20
Coffee 265,514 33 60,168 92 -63,594 10 3,426 12
Sugar 883,009 14 122,925 62 -134,491 43 11,566 22
Wheat 369,218 18 -1,466 46 12,111 53 -10,645 51

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 360,505 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 27,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 332,825 net contracts.


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This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.6 36.9 4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 57.1 2.8
– Net Position: 360,505 -396,940 36,435
– Gross Longs: 484,370 726,296 91,354
– Gross Shorts: 123,865 1,123,236 54,919
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.0 68.3 66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 11.6 -13.0

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -16,691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.1 43.2 3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.9 37.1 1.7
– Net Position: -16,691 13,101 3,590
– Gross Longs: 45,528 93,021 7,325
– Gross Shorts: 62,219 79,920 3,735
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.1 10.7 57.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.2 1.6 4.2

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -122,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 19,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -141,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.5 42.7 4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.3 34.3 2.2
– Net Position: -122,564 95,136 27,428
– Gross Longs: 221,396 484,896 52,328
– Gross Shorts: 343,960 389,760 24,900
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.8 60.9 48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.0 0.5 -29.6

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.0 48.6 6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.4 67.9 4.2
– Net Position: 59,502 -65,555 6,053
– Gross Longs: 101,661 164,923 20,449
– Gross Shorts: 42,159 230,478 14,396
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.7 71.4 47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.1 -15.4 9.0

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,875 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.7 50.8 13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.2 61.9 6.6
– Net Position: 15,875 -39,484 23,609
– Gross Longs: 55,887 181,172 47,269
– Gross Shorts: 40,012 220,656 23,660
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.8 29.2 80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.8 -13.5 27.7

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,517 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 56.6 40.3 1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 96.8 1.1 0.0
– Net Position: -21,605 21,047 558
– Gross Longs: 30,391 21,647 580
– Gross Shorts: 51,996 600 22
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 36.1 to 1 26.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.8 74.2 39.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -36.9 37.2 -0.4

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.