COT Energy Speculators drop Brent Crude Oil bearish bets to 167-week low

January 8, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 4th 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT energy data is the improvement in the Brent Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the Brent (Last Day contract) futures have seen lower bearish bets for two straight weeks and this week’s +9,461 speculative net contracts rise marked the largest one-week improvement since October 26th. The overall speculator standing in Brent oil have been in a continuous bearish standing since December of 2013 due to the particular positioning dynamics of the market but have now fallen to the least bearish level since October 23rd of 2018, a span of 167 weeks. This has pushed the speculator strength score to 100 percent (compared to the past three year’s range).

Joining Brent Crude Oil (9,461 contracts) in gaining this week were Natural Gas (4,310 contracts), Heating Oil (3,861 contracts) and Gasoline (7,072 contracts).

The markets with falling speculator bets were WTI Crude Oil (-5,604 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-6,522 contracts).


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Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-04-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,887,131 3 332,825 15 -369,956 77 37,131 67
Gold 502,717 20 211,355 55 -237,458 45 26,103 38
Silver 139,521 6 30,919 53 -43,973 56 13,054 16
Copper 185,905 16 19,759 57 -24,845 42 5,086 55
Palladium 9,480 13 -3,192 3 3,344 96 -152 36
Platinum 58,275 19 6,762 12 -12,185 92 5,423 38
Natural Gas 1,117,606 2 -141,907 36 110,122 66 31,785 59
Brent 203,528 42 -11,255 100 6,990 0 4,265 67
Heating Oil 320,686 14 7,492 53 -29,819 40 22,327 76
Soybeans 648,148 10 130,556 63 -91,893 44 -38,663 8
Corn 1,520,233 24 445,481 87 -382,800 17 -62,681 7
Coffee 262,231 31 54,565 88 -57,751 15 3,186 10
Sugar 873,918 11 172,987 72 -192,794 32 19,807 32
Wheat 359,139 12 4,080 50 6,236 47 -10,316 52

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 332,825 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 338,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.5 38.1 4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.9 57.7 2.7
– Net Position: 332,825 -369,956 37,131
– Gross Longs: 462,594 718,728 87,930
– Gross Shorts: 129,769 1,088,684 50,799
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.8 77.1 67.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -24.8 27.5 -14.4

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,716 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.9 42.6 3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.4 39.1 1.8
– Net Position: -11,255 6,990 4,265
– Gross Longs: 44,535 86,665 7,855
– Gross Shorts: 55,790 79,675 3,590
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -1.4 -33.0

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -141,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -146,217 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.3 44.5 5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.0 34.7 2.1
– Net Position: -141,907 110,122 31,785
– Gross Longs: 216,171 497,375 55,643
– Gross Shorts: 358,078 387,253 23,858
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.0 65.6 59.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.4 4.1 -20.6

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 64,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,072 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,245 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.6 45.3 6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.0 67.9 4.4
– Net Position: 64,317 -70,453 6,136
– Gross Longs: 101,919 141,535 19,994
– Gross Shorts: 37,602 211,988 13,858
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.6 66.5 48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.5 -9.1 4.5

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,861 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.4 51.4 13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.1 60.7 6.9
– Net Position: 7,492 -29,819 22,327
– Gross Longs: 46,144 164,971 44,505
– Gross Shorts: 38,652 194,790 22,178
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.4 39.5 75.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.0 1.3 24.1

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,517 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,995 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 62.4 30.8 4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 96.7 1.2 0.1
– Net Position: -16,517 14,248 2,269
– Gross Longs: 30,066 14,848 2,296
– Gross Shorts: 46,583 600 27
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 24.7 to 1 85.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.3 48.1 100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.9 4.0 54.9

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.