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COT Speculators push US Dollar bullish bets higher for 20th time in 23 weeks

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday due to the Thanksgiving holiday last week.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 23rd 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting last week’s currency data is the US Dollar Index speculator bets continuing to climb higher. The Dollar Index positions rose for the third time in the past four weeks and have now increased for twenty out of the past twenty-three weeks as the net position has risen by a total of 38,078 contracts over that period. The dollar positioning has been over the +34,000 contract level for seven weeks in a row and if the position hits above +40,000 contracts, it would mark the first time since October of 2019 to hit that threshold. The Dollar Index strength index (compared to its three year range of positioning) remains in extreme bullish territory (over 80 percent) at an 87.5 score and has now been above 80 percent for eight consecutive weeks. The last time the Dollar Index had registered a bullish extreme level was also in October of 2019 when it rose as high as 94.5 percent before cooling off.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-23-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 57,694 84 35,775 87 -41,146 6 5,371 75
EUR 711,685 88 -16,452 30 -16,835 71 33,287 30
GBP 213,313 47 -34,579 49 45,803 57 -11,224 32
JPY 251,801 90 -97,253 8 116,225 94 -18,972 9
CHF 52,412 31 -11,376 50 21,522 55 -10,146 34
CAD 150,275 30 -3,135 52 -11,397 45 14,532 69
AUD 188,033 74 -63,265 25 73,423 74 -10,158 28
NZD 44,524 33 13,939 95 -14,860 7 921 62
MXN 184,243 40 -49,461 1 50,588 100 -1,127 38
RUB 51,535 56 18,064 56 -19,323 41 1,259 69
BRL 34,375 36 -14,804 49 15,360 54 -556 60
Bitcoin 14,357 83 -160 100 729 0 -569 0

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 35,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.7 3.0 12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.7 74.3 3.4
– Net Position: 35,775 -41,146 5,371
– Gross Longs: 47,116 1,739 7,357
– Gross Shorts: 11,341 42,885 1,986
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.2 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.5 6.2 75.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.2 2.6 -24.7

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,452 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,826 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.7 56.7 12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.0 59.1 8.1
– Net Position: -16,452 -16,835 33,287
– Gross Longs: 204,214 403,595 90,690
– Gross Shorts: 220,666 420,430 57,403
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.9 71.0 29.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.6 -2.2 9.8

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -34,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,599 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.5 62.8 10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.7 41.3 15.8
– Net Position: -34,579 45,803 -11,224
– Gross Longs: 50,122 133,888 22,470
– Gross Shorts: 84,701 88,085 33,694
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.1 56.8 32.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -16.3 15.1 -6.2

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -97,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.1 81.8 8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.7 35.6 16.4
– Net Position: -97,253 116,225 -18,972
– Gross Longs: 20,285 205,923 22,338
– Gross Shorts: 117,538 89,698 41,310
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.8 93.9 8.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.9 10.5 -1.1

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.9 65.6 22.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.6 24.6 41.7
– Net Position: -11,376 21,522 -10,146
– Gross Longs: 6,241 34,403 11,695
– Gross Shorts: 17,617 12,881 21,841
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.1 55.1 33.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.8 -9.5 20.1

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.5 44.0 24.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.6 51.6 15.0
– Net Position: -3,135 -11,397 14,532
– Gross Longs: 44,320 66,164 37,111
– Gross Shorts: 47,455 77,561 22,579
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.4 44.5 68.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.6 -14.5 -2.4

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -63,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.6 65.4 10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 55.2 26.3 15.5
– Net Position: -63,265 73,423 -10,158
– Gross Longs: 40,523 122,921 18,914
– Gross Shorts: 103,788 49,498 29,072
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 25.1 73.7 27.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.9 -21.3 10.3

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 13,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -26 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 62.5 24.6 10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.2 58.0 8.3
– Net Position: 13,939 -14,860 921
– Gross Longs: 27,835 10,943 4,596
– Gross Shorts: 13,896 25,803 3,675
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.7 7.5 62.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.7 -10.3 17.4

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -49,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,655 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.8 53.2 2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 70.6 25.7 2.9
– Net Position: -49,461 50,588 -1,127
– Gross Longs: 80,691 98,029 4,234
– Gross Shorts: 130,152 47,441 5,361
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.7 100.0 38.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.4 5.7 -12.7

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.8 64.7 7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.8 20.0 8.8
– Net Position: -14,804 15,360 -556
– Gross Longs: 9,197 22,233 2,462
– Gross Shorts: 24,001 6,873 3,018
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 3.2 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.8 53.9 60.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.3 20.6 -12.5

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 49.7 45.2 5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 82.7 2.6
– Net Position: 18,064 -19,323 1,259
– Gross Longs: 25,617 23,317 2,601
– Gross Shorts: 7,553 42,640 1,342
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.1 41.2 68.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.9 5.5 -31.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 63.1 6.7 14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 64.2 1.7 18.5
– Net Position: -160 729 -569
– Gross Longs: 9,054 966 2,094
– Gross Shorts: 9,214 237 2,663
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 4.1 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.6 100.0 0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.6 16.6 -32.7

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 16th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT Currency data this week is the second straight decline in British pound sterling speculative positions. The pound sterling speculator contracts dropped sharply for the second consecutive week this week and have now fallen by a total of -46,646 contracts over just this two-week time period. These declines have pushed the overall speculative position into a bearish sentiment level of -31,599 contracts which marks the lowest standing of the past seventy-six weeks, dating back to June 2nd of 2020. The GBPUSD currency pair has been under pressure since the middle of October and fallen from around 1.3800 exchange rate to just above the 1.3435 level currently, a drop of almost 400 pips.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-16-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 59,387 88 34,908 86 -40,455 7 5,547 77
EUR 705,698 86 -3,826 34 -26,985 68 30,811 25
GBP 207,099 43 -31,599 51 41,182 54 -9,583 36
JPY 252,897 91 -93,126 10 115,758 94 -22,632 1
CHF 49,320 27 -8,889 54 18,767 52 -9,878 34
CAD 148,955 30 8,709 62 -26,717 35 18,008 74
AUD 166,688 57 -61,153 27 69,858 71 -8,705 31
NZD 42,945 30 13,965 95 -15,521 6 1,556 70
MXN 170,102 33 -47,655 2 46,127 99 1,528 50
RUB 52,624 58 22,625 67 -23,936 31 1,311 70
BRL 31,767 32 -15,698 48 15,743 54 -45 66
Bitcoin 13,648 78 -1,478 69 357 0 1,121 23

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 34,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,448 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 3.4 12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.0 71.5 3.5
– Net Position: 34,908 -40,455 5,547
– Gross Longs: 47,959 2,000 7,621
– Gross Shorts: 13,051 42,455 2,074
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.0 7.4 77.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.0 -2.7 -13.6

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 57.3 12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.6 61.1 8.4
– Net Position: -3,826 -26,985 30,811
– Gross Longs: 198,181 404,266 90,261
– Gross Shorts: 202,007 431,251 59,450
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.8 68.1 25.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.7 -5.2 -0.0

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.4 61.4 11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.6 41.5 15.9
– Net Position: -31,599 41,182 -9,583
– Gross Longs: 50,443 127,197 23,322
– Gross Shorts: 82,042 86,015 32,905
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.2 54.0 35.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 9.2 -8.1

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -93,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,225 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.7 80.5 8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.6 34.7 17.6
– Net Position: -93,126 115,758 -22,632
– Gross Longs: 24,635 203,468 21,790
– Gross Shorts: 117,761 87,710 44,422
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.4 93.7 0.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.4 15.5 -4.1

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.2 64.2 24.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 26.1 44.5
– Net Position: -8,889 18,767 -9,878
– Gross Longs: 5,502 31,663 12,048
– Gross Shorts: 14,391 12,896 21,926
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.4 52.0 34.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.9 -12.2 11.8

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,104 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 42.1 27.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.8 60.0 15.0
– Net Position: 8,709 -26,717 18,008
– Gross Longs: 44,147 62,689 40,389
– Gross Shorts: 35,438 89,406 22,381
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.3 34.9 74.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.6 -26.4 10.0

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -61,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.5 67.2 11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 55.1 25.3 17.1
– Net Position: -61,153 69,858 -8,705
– Gross Longs: 30,760 112,044 19,744
– Gross Shorts: 91,913 42,186 28,449
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.1 71.0 31.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.1 -29.0 24.4

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,882 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 61.4 24.1 11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.9 60.2 7.8
– Net Position: 13,965 -15,521 1,556
– Gross Longs: 26,388 10,349 4,923
– Gross Shorts: 12,423 25,870 3,367
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.7 6.5 69.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.9 -11.8 19.8

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -47,655 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.1 55.3 3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.2 28.2 2.2
– Net Position: -47,655 46,127 1,528
– Gross Longs: 69,984 94,074 5,245
– Gross Shorts: 117,639 47,947 3,717
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.5 98.8 49.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 5.6 -1.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.7 64.6 8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 76.1 15.0 8.2
– Net Position: -15,698 15,743 -45
– Gross Longs: 8,468 20,507 2,545
– Gross Shorts: 24,166 4,764 2,590
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 4.3 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.6 54.4 66.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.9 19.3 -12.9

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 22,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,922 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.7 37.7 4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 83.2 2.1
– Net Position: 22,625 -23,936 1,311
– Gross Longs: 30,357 19,849 2,418
– Gross Shorts: 7,732 43,785 1,107
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.9 30.7 70.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.2 -3.3 -20.9

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 63.4 5.0 14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.2 2.4 6.5
– Net Position: -1,478 357 1,121
– Gross Longs: 8,649 678 2,008
– Gross Shorts: 10,127 321 887
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 2.1 to 1 2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.7 71.4 22.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -20.8 4.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

COT Currency Charts: Speculators push New Zealand Dollar bets to 34-Week High

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 2nd 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting this week’s COT Currency data is the speculator’s boost of their New Zealand dollar bets. Speculator net positions for the NZD increased for a second consecutive week this week and for the seventh time out of the past nine weeks (9-week total of +16,002 contracts). This recent bullishness has brought the net speculator positions to over +13,000 contracts which is the highest level in the past thirty-four weeks, dating back to March 9th. NZD positions had been in negative or bearish territory as recently as August 31st before this recent bullishness propelled them higher.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-02-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 57,947 85 34,982 86 -42,053 5 7,071 94
EUR 678,024 75 -6,138 33 -22,728 69 28,866 26
GBP 166,780 18 15,047 85 -11,732 23 -3,315 49
JPY 251,058 89 -107,624 1 126,005 99 -18,381 12
CHF 51,613 30 -20,648 34 25,497 60 -4,849 49
CAD 156,194 34 4,162 58 -27,441 34 23,279 82
AUD 162,888 54 -75,496 14 73,970 74 1,526 56
NZD 45,436 35 13,861 95 -16,625 5 2,764 83
MXN 167,676 32 -51,018 0 48,795 100 2,223 52
RUB 61,601 73 19,982 61 -21,882 35 1,900 86
BRL 31,674 33 -14,272 50 14,357 53 -85 66
Bitcoin 13,512 77 -1,612 66 421 0 1,191 25

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 34,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.3 3.3 15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.0 75.9 3.0
– Net Position: 34,982 -42,053 7,071
– Gross Longs: 45,395 1,911 8,799
– Gross Shorts: 10,413 43,964 1,728
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.4 to 1 0.0 to 1 5.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.1 4.7 93.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.0 -19.4 19.4

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.2 57.9 12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 61.3 8.2
– Net Position: -6,138 -22,728 28,866
– Gross Longs: 191,496 392,882 84,160
– Gross Shorts: 197,634 415,610 55,294
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.1 69.3 25.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.6 6.1 -5.2

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 15,047 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 94 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,953 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.3 47.0 16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 54.1 18.4
– Net Position: 15,047 -11,732 -3,315
– Gross Longs: 57,255 78,420 27,293
– Gross Shorts: 42,208 90,152 30,608
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.8 22.7 48.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.0 -7.6 -5.1

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -107,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.1 82.7 8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.0 32.5 15.7
– Net Position: -107,624 126,005 -18,381
– Gross Longs: 20,337 207,612 20,944
– Gross Shorts: 127,961 81,607 39,325
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.3 98.7 12.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -32.2 29.5 -16.7

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,379 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 2.8 70.6 26.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.8 21.2 35.5
– Net Position: -20,648 25,497 -4,849
– Gross Longs: 1,439 36,456 13,485
– Gross Shorts: 22,087 10,959 18,334
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.3 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.9 59.6 49.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.0 1.1 30.6

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 4,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,320 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.9 43.9 28.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.2 61.5 13.3
– Net Position: 4,162 -27,441 23,279
– Gross Longs: 42,037 68,542 44,037
– Gross Shorts: 37,875 95,983 20,758
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.5 34.5 81.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 26.7 -29.0 21.5

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -75,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.8 71.5 15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 58.1 26.1 14.9
– Net Position: -75,496 73,970 1,526
– Gross Longs: 19,187 116,464 25,749
– Gross Shorts: 94,683 42,494 24,223
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 13.6 74.1 56.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.5 -21.2 44.5

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,906 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 60.5 23.5 13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.0 60.0 6.9
– Net Position: 13,861 -16,625 2,764
– Gross Longs: 27,504 10,659 5,893
– Gross Shorts: 13,643 27,284 3,129
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.5 4.8 83.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.7 -11.4 18.8

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -51,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.7 59.1 3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 67.1 30.0 2.0
– Net Position: -51,018 48,795 2,223
– Gross Longs: 61,553 99,034 5,560
– Gross Shorts: 112,571 50,239 3,337
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 52.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.5 15.0 -6.2

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -942 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.4 61.8 9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 73.4 16.5 9.8
– Net Position: -14,272 14,357 -85
– Gross Longs: 8,989 19,574 3,023
– Gross Shorts: 23,261 5,217 3,108
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 3.8 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.5 52.6 65.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.8 28.2 -13.3

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 59.1 36.3 4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.6 71.8 1.5
– Net Position: 19,982 -21,882 1,900
– Gross Longs: 36,389 22,369 2,843
– Gross Shorts: 16,407 44,251 943
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.7 35.4 86.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.1 -4.9 10.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,412 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 67.1 5.4 14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.0 2.3 5.6
– Net Position: -1,612 421 1,191
– Gross Longs: 9,062 727 1,943
– Gross Shorts: 10,674 306 752
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.6 78.2 24.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 41.6 5.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

COT Forex Charts: Speculator’s US Dollar Index bullish bets rise for 9th straight week

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 19th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting this week’s COT Currency data is once again the speculator’s US Dollar Index bullish bets which have gained for nine consecutive weeks. Dollar Index speculative bullish positions have now risen for seventeen out of the past eighteen weeks to hit the highest level in the past one-hundred and five weeks, dating back to October 15th of 2019. The speculator strength index score (current levels compared to past three years) rose again this week and shows that spec sentiment is now in an extreme bullish position (88 percent score) for the third week in a row.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-19-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 60,731 91 35,934 88 -42,728 4 6,794 91
EUR 679,418 75 -12,107 31 -17,573 71 29,680 27
GBP 158,961 13 1,615 75 -2,381 28 766 57
JPY 266,750 100 -102,734 4 122,640 98 -19,906 9
CHF 55,600 36 -17,584 39 33,353 68 -15,769 17
CAD 153,912 33 -10,924 46 -7,837 47 18,761 75
AUD 158,531 51 -76,058 13 81,311 80 -5,253 42
NZD 37,730 20 6,440 82 -7,598 19 1,158 65
MXN 164,268 31 -38,571 1 36,459 99 2,112 52
RUB 53,589 59 22,171 66 -24,341 30 2,170 93
BRL 29,983 30 -658 68 -115 33 773 76
Bitcoin 13,605 93 -2,846 24 246 0 2,600 75

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 35,934 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,062 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.3 3.5 14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.2 73.8 3.0
– Net Position: 35,934 -42,728 6,794
– Gross Longs: 47,568 2,104 8,642
– Gross Shorts: 11,634 44,832 1,848
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.8 3.6 90.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 25.0 -26.0 13.1

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,398 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.5 57.4 12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.2 59.9 8.5
– Net Position: -12,107 -17,573 29,680
– Gross Longs: 193,320 389,682 87,763
– Gross Shorts: 205,427 407,255 58,083
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.3 70.8 27.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.8 15.7 -27.4

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.9 50.0 17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.9 51.5 17.1
– Net Position: 1,615 -2,381 766
– Gross Longs: 49,112 79,459 27,920
– Gross Shorts: 47,497 81,840 27,154
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.2 28.3 57.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.8 -13.4 -7.2

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -102,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -26,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,634 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.4 77.9 7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.9 31.9 15.4
– Net Position: -102,734 122,640 -19,906
– Gross Longs: 35,713 207,735 21,090
– Gross Shorts: 138,447 85,095 40,996
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.4 98.1 9.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.2 22.1 -7.7

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.3 80.3 15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.9 20.3 43.7
– Net Position: -17,584 33,353 -15,769
– Gross Longs: 2,365 44,662 8,549
– Gross Shorts: 19,949 11,309 24,318
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.9 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.2 68.4 17.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.1 27.7 -19.8

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.2 47.2 25.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.3 52.3 13.1
– Net Position: -10,924 -7,837 18,761
– Gross Longs: 40,380 72,675 38,947
– Gross Shorts: 51,304 80,512 20,186
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.9 46.7 75.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.1 -1.1 10.1

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -76,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -87,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.3 76.6 13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 55.3 25.4 17.0
– Net Position: -76,058 81,311 -5,253
– Gross Longs: 11,632 121,502 21,748
– Gross Shorts: 87,690 40,191 27,001
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.0 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 13.1 79.6 41.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.2 -1.6 18.2

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,308 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,748 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.7 29.7 12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.6 49.8 9.2
– Net Position: 6,440 -7,598 1,158
– Gross Longs: 21,004 11,194 4,631
– Gross Shorts: 14,564 18,792 3,473
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.1 18.7 65.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.3 -4.0 0.4

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -38,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,063 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,634 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.7 52.9 3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 66.2 30.7 2.3
– Net Position: -38,571 36,459 2,112
– Gross Longs: 70,192 86,864 5,934
– Gross Shorts: 108,763 50,405 3,822
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.5 99.4 52.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.0 11.1 -10.8

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -373 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.7 33.0 11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.9 33.4 9.2
– Net Position: -658 -115 773
– Gross Longs: 16,399 9,906 3,535
– Gross Shorts: 17,057 10,021 2,762
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 33.3 76.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.4 10.2 -8.2

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 22,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,308 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 58.9 35.0 5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.5 80.5 1.8
– Net Position: 22,171 -24,341 2,170
– Gross Longs: 31,551 18,778 3,134
– Gross Shorts: 9,380 43,119 964
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.4 to 1 0.4 to 1 3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.9 29.7 93.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.9 -3.9 13.3

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,426 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.0 3.6 28.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 72.9 1.8 9.3
– Net Position: -2,846 246 2,600
– Gross Longs: 7,069 486 3,868
– Gross Shorts: 9,915 240 1,268
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 2.0 to 1 3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.8 59.7 75.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -49.4 38.0 45.8

 


Article By InvestMacro.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

COT Currency Charts: Speculators push US Dollar Index bullish bets to 104-week high

By InvestMacro | COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 12th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting this week’s COT Currency data is the speculator’s US Dollar Index bullish bets which have risen to the highest level in 104 weeks. Speculator wagers in favor of the Dollar Index have now increased for eight straight weeks and have climbed higher for sixteen out of the past seventeen weeks. This pushes the current position (35,062 contracts) to the most bullish standing dating back to October 15th of 2019 when net positions totaled 37,436 contracts. The speculator strength index score (current levels compared to past three years) also shows that spec sentiment has now moved into an extreme bullish position (86 percent score) for a second week.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-12-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 62,836 95 35,062 86 -42,692 4 7,630 100
EUR 695,329 82 -18,398 29 -8,953 73 27,351 23
GBP 172,829 21 -11,979 65 20,191 42 -8,212 39
JPY 243,617 100 -76,634 21 95,092 84 -18,458 12
CHF 57,341 38 -12,972 47 29,963 65 -16,991 13
CAD 127,827 15 -27,860 32 11,728 59 16,132 71
AUD 177,932 66 -87,608 2 102,000 95 -14,392 20
NZD 37,340 19 8,748 86 -8,151 18 -597 45
MXN 171,754 34 -39,634 0 37,759 100 1,875 51
RUB 54,771 61 19,308 59 -21,718 36 2,410 100
BRL 27,338 26 -373 68 -107 33 480 73
Bitcoin 10,918 69 -1,426 64 555 0 871 18

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 35,062 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,026 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.6 3.4 14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.8 71.3 2.4
– Net Position: 35,062 -42,692 7,630
– Gross Longs: 49,394 2,131 9,108
– Gross Shorts: 14,332 44,823 1,478
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.4 to 1 0.0 to 1 6.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.3 3.7 100.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.8 -27.4 23.4

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.1 57.0 12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.8 58.3 8.8
– Net Position: -18,398 -8,953 27,351
– Gross Longs: 202,512 396,224 88,733
– Gross Shorts: 220,910 405,177 61,382
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.4 73.2 23.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 12.2 -22.7

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,018 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.1 57.0 14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.0 45.3 19.1
– Net Position: -11,979 20,191 -8,212
– Gross Longs: 46,794 98,512 24,778
– Gross Shorts: 58,773 78,321 32,990
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 41.6 38.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.1 3.4 -18.0

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -76,634 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,940 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.7 76.2 8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 37.1 16.1
– Net Position: -76,634 95,092 -18,458
– Gross Longs: 35,810 185,560 20,735
– Gross Shorts: 112,444 90,468 39,193
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.7 84.3 12.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.4 7.9 -4.6

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -12,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,707 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,679 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.2 79.0 14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.8 26.8 44.3
– Net Position: -12,972 29,963 -16,991
– Gross Longs: 3,560 45,327 8,435
– Gross Shorts: 16,532 15,364 25,426
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.0 to 1 0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.3 64.6 13.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -29.6 30.7 -30.1

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -27,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -994 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,866 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.5 52.3 29.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.3 43.1 16.5
– Net Position: -27,860 11,728 16,132
– Gross Longs: 22,382 66,803 37,224
– Gross Shorts: 50,242 55,075 21,092
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.8 59.0 71.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.8 9.9 13.9

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -87,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.3 82.2 9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 55.5 24.8 17.3
– Net Position: -87,608 102,000 -14,392
– Gross Longs: 11,193 146,176 16,345
– Gross Shorts: 98,801 44,176 30,737
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.3 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.2 95.0 20.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.9 15.2 16.7

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 8,748 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.8 33.7 9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.4 55.5 11.4
– Net Position: 8,748 -8,151 -597
– Gross Longs: 20,467 12,586 3,646
– Gross Shorts: 11,719 20,737 4,243
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.9 17.8 45.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.3 -16.2 -4.2

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -39,634 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.2 52.6 3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 66.2 30.6 2.2
– Net Position: -39,634 37,759 1,875
– Gross Longs: 74,129 90,283 5,577
– Gross Shorts: 113,763 52,524 3,702
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 51.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 9.7 -8.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -373 contracts in the market data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.9 35.1 11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 54.2 35.5 9.8
– Net Position: -373 -107 480
– Gross Longs: 14,449 9,600 3,154
– Gross Shorts: 14,822 9,707 2,674
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.1 33.3 72.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -16.9 18.7 -16.7

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,409 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.1 39.0 5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.9 78.7 1.4
– Net Position: 19,308 -21,718 2,410
– Gross Longs: 30,193 21,388 3,190
– Gross Shorts: 10,885 43,106 780
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.1 35.8 100.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.1 3.1 21.7

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 92 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 62.7 6.3 16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.7 1.2 8.1
– Net Position: -1,426 555 871
– Gross Longs: 6,844 689 1,751
– Gross Shorts: 8,270 134 880
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 5.1 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 63.8 92.3 18.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.4 62.4 -8.5

 


Article By InvestMacro.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculators boost SP500-Mini Futures bets to 50-Week high

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 12th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting this week’s stock market COT data is the S&P500 Mini contracts which rose sharply this week by 25,999 contracts. The S&P500 Mini bets have now gained for three out of the past four weeks and by a total of +134,625 contracts over that time-frame. This has brought the speculator level out of a negative position on September 14th to the current speculator position at a total of 98,783 contracts. The current standing marks the highest level since October 27th of 2020 when the total contracts reached 115,439 net positions.


Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-12-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini 2,403,163 0 98,783 71 -133,167 42 34,384 34
Nikkei 225 17,548 9 1,194 57 -2,536 45 1,342 44
Nasdaq-Mini 230,615 31 -818 75 2,876 28 -2,058 39
DowJones-Mini 102,040 73 -4,283 31 -3,119 59 7,402 78
VIX 329,905 36 -73,569 55 81,417 46 -7,848 27
Nikkei 225 Yen 56,171 38 4,608 34 26,699 100 -31,307 18

 


VIX Volatility Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -73,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,588 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.3 52.1 6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.6 27.4 8.7
– Net Position: -73,569 81,417 -7,848
– Gross Longs: 53,756 171,928 20,718
– Gross Shorts: 127,325 90,511 28,566
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.1 46.4 26.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.7 -4.4 -0.6

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 98,783 contracts in the market data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 25,999 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.8 70.9 10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.7 76.4 9.5
– Net Position: 98,783 -133,167 34,384
– Gross Longs: 379,901 1,704,039 262,461
– Gross Shorts: 281,118 1,837,206 228,077
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.0 42.0 33.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.5 -7.2 -18.3

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,892 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,175 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 48.6 18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.7 51.6 10.8
– Net Position: -4,283 -3,119 7,402
– Gross Longs: 32,183 49,542 18,417
– Gross Shorts: 36,466 52,661 11,015
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.5 58.6 78.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.2 2.0 0.7

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.3 55.2 16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.7 54.0 17.7
– Net Position: -818 2,876 -2,058
– Gross Longs: 60,671 127,302 38,670
– Gross Shorts: 61,489 124,426 40,728
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.6 28.3 39.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -7.5 23.8

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -48,706 contracts in the market data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,613 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.2 78.1 6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.9 69.8 4.2
– Net Position: -48,706 37,536 11,170
– Gross Longs: 63,996 353,157 29,974
– Gross Shorts: 112,702 315,621 18,804
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.2 68.6 64.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.3 -14.6 12.6

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,138 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,944 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.3 61.5 26.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.5 76.0 18.3
– Net Position: 1,194 -2,536 1,342
– Gross Longs: 2,167 10,796 4,558
– Gross Shorts: 973 13,332 3,216
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.3 45.3 44.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.0 -21.1 15.3

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,591 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 89.7 2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 2.8 95.3 1.3
– Net Position: 16,454 -21,896 5,442
– Gross Longs: 27,317 349,336 10,335
– Gross Shorts: 10,863 371,232 4,893
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.8 61.1 65.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.0 2.6 2.0

 


Article By InvestMacro.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Coffee Speculators push bullish bets to over 4-month high

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 12th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting this week’s data is Coffee which saw speculators raise their bullish net positions to the highest level in over four months. Coffee bullish bets have now increased for nine consecutive weeks and came in this week at a total of 69,085 contracts. This marks the second highest level on record and just below the all-time high set on June 1st of this year at a total of 70,773 contracts. Speculators currently have a 99 percent strength index score which means that speculative trader sentiment is at the very top of the range over the past three years.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-12-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 2,231,227 48 404,776 41 -453,684 46 48,908 84
Gold 484,382 21 185,539 54 -207,614 46 22,075 33
Silver 139,403 6 17,987 40 -30,292 69 12,305 11
Copper 194,817 23 22,481 59 -25,867 42 3,386 45
Palladium 9,296 13 -2,496 4 2,625 95 -129 37
Platinum 59,344 21 10,919 18 -16,756 85 5,837 43
Natural Gas 1,314,022 40 -130,902 39 91,201 60 39,701 79
Brent 205,521 44 -34,924 57 29,563 37 5,361 82
Heating Oil 429,908 68 39,137 100 -65,644 1 26,507 90
Soybeans 759,101 35 41,990 41 -9,665 64 -32,325 18
Corn 1,400,377 4 279,288 66 -223,336 40 -55,952 11
Coffee 305,141 62 69,085 99 -73,808 2 4,723 21
Sugar 891,672 25 246,188 87 -294,674 12 48,486 68
Wheat 385,204 23 -4,534 43 12,969 53 -8,435 61

 


CORN Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 279,288 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 297,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.8 49.0 9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.8 64.9 13.3
– Net Position: 279,288 -223,336 -55,952
– Gross Longs: 402,726 685,667 130,383
– Gross Shorts: 123,438 909,003 186,335
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.7 40.1 10.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.2 1.2 9.4

 


SUGAR Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 246,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 247,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.0 41.9 10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.4 74.9 5.3
– Net Position: 246,188 -294,674 48,486
– Gross Longs: 294,624 373,277 95,832
– Gross Shorts: 48,436 667,951 47,346
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.2 12.3 67.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 8.4 1.4

 


COFFEE Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 69,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,571 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.9 39.7 3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 63.9 2.4
– Net Position: 69,085 -73,808 4,723
– Gross Longs: 85,275 121,291 12,017
– Gross Shorts: 16,190 195,099 7,294
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 98.8 2.0 21.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.7 -8.9 -4.7

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.7 58.2 6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.2 59.5 10.7
– Net Position: 41,990 -9,665 -32,325
– Gross Longs: 134,258 441,827 48,964
– Gross Shorts: 92,268 451,492 81,289
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.8 63.5 18.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.7 11.4 -15.6

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.7 49.0 12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.3 53.3 7.3
– Net Position: -2,587 -18,056 20,643
– Gross Longs: 83,287 207,667 51,696
– Gross Shorts: 85,874 225,723 31,053
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.3 71.5 53.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.2 21.5 19.5

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 42,789 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,937 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 44.4 10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.3 57.1 13.3
– Net Position: 42,789 -35,822 -6,967
– Gross Longs: 91,514 125,280 30,551
– Gross Shorts: 48,725 161,102 37,518
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 17.7 78.5 70.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.1 31.6 15.8

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,885 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.9 30.1 7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.4 51.6 14.2
– Net Position: 71,544 -54,143 -17,401
– Gross Longs: 107,881 75,606 18,368
– Gross Shorts: 36,337 129,749 35,769
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.3 26.4 0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.1 5.6 -10.6

 


COTTON Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 111,391 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121,286 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.3 35.8 7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.5 79.0 3.1
– Net Position: 111,391 -124,049 12,658
– Gross Longs: 124,338 102,682 21,438
– Gross Shorts: 12,947 226,731 8,780
– Long to Short Ratio: 9.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.7 5.4 92.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.0 -3.6 9.6

 


COCOA Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 40,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,776 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,997 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.8 45.1 5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.0 62.9 3.2
– Net Position: 40,221 -45,299 5,078
– Gross Longs: 78,546 115,118 13,171
– Gross Shorts: 38,325 160,417 8,093
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.0 38.4 66.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.2 -13.1 27.2

 


WHEAT Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.6 41.3 8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.8 37.9 10.3
– Net Position: -4,534 12,969 -8,435
– Gross Longs: 94,728 159,131 31,296
– Gross Shorts: 99,262 146,162 39,731
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.1 53.5 61.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.3 25.2 6.8

 


Article By InvestMacro.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

COT Currency Charts: US Dollar Index Speculators boost bullish bets to 103-Week high

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 5th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the currency COT data this week is the US Dollar Index positioning. Speculators increased their bullish bets this week by +5,565 contracts which marked the largest one-week gain in three months. The bullish speculator position has now risen for seven straight weeks and for fifteen out of the past sixteen weeks. This bullishness has brought the current bullish standing for US Dollar Index speculators to the highest level in the past 103 weeks, dating back to October 15th of 2019.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-05-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 57,194 83 32,026 81 -38,817 10 6,791 100
EUR 693,591 82 -22,334 28 -8,487 73 30,821 29
GBP 182,338 27 -20,018 60 25,676 45 -5,658 44
JPY 226,379 95 -63,694 29 84,463 79 -20,769 8
CHF 55,970 36 -15,679 43 29,586 64 -13,907 22
CAD 120,168 10 -26,866 33 15,455 61 11,411 64
AUD 188,691 74 -89,979 0 108,693 100 -18,714 10
NZD 35,861 16 8,056 85 -7,886 18 -170 51
MXN 168,119 33 -35,579 0 33,693 100 1,886 51
RUB 52,913 58 20,409 62 -22,491 34 2,082 100
BRL 22,976 20 -2,290 66 1,269 35 1,021 79
Bitcoin 8,886 51 -1,518 61 554 0 964 21

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,026 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.2 3.3 14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.2 71.2 3.1
– Net Position: 32,026 -38,817 6,791
– Gross Longs: 44,715 1,879 8,543
– Gross Shorts: 12,689 40,696 1,752
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.0 10.1 100.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.1 -21.7 16.8

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -23,206 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.4 57.2 13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.6 58.4 8.6
– Net Position: -22,334 -8,487 30,821
– Gross Longs: 196,819 396,534 90,564
– Gross Shorts: 219,153 405,021 59,743
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.1 73.3 28.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.4 13.8 -3.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -20,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,982 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.4 58.1 14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.4 44.0 17.2
– Net Position: -20,018 25,676 -5,658
– Gross Longs: 48,137 105,899 25,681
– Gross Shorts: 68,155 80,223 31,339
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.6 44.9 43.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.4 3.8 -6.7

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -63,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.9 77.4 8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.1 40.1 17.3
– Net Position: -63,694 84,463 -20,769
– Gross Longs: 31,569 175,160 18,406
– Gross Shorts: 95,263 90,697 39,175
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.7 79.0 7.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.9 1.2 -11.4

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,092 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,587 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.1 79.7 16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.1 26.9 41.0
– Net Position: -15,679 29,586 -13,907
– Gross Longs: 2,274 44,633 9,051
– Gross Shorts: 17,953 15,047 22,958
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.0 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.6 64.2 22.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -34.6 29.7 -19.1

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -26,866 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.5 54.4 28.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.8 41.5 19.3
– Net Position: -26,866 15,455 11,411
– Gross Longs: 18,580 65,338 34,639
– Gross Shorts: 45,446 49,883 23,228
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.6 61.3 64.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.3 18.9 3.9

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -89,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.3 80.3 7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.9 22.7 17.6
– Net Position: -89,979 108,693 -18,714
– Gross Longs: 17,471 151,501 14,474
– Gross Shorts: 107,450 42,808 33,188
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.5 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 10.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.4 23.3 5.0

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 49.9 37.9 10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.4 59.9 10.8
– Net Position: 8,056 -7,886 -170
– Gross Longs: 17,887 13,588 3,702
– Gross Shorts: 9,831 21,474 3,872
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.8 18.2 51.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.1 -15.0 14.4

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -35,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,984 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.8 49.9 3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 67.0 29.9 2.2
– Net Position: -35,579 33,693 1,886
– Gross Longs: 77,074 83,926 5,540
– Gross Shorts: 112,653 50,233 3,654
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 51.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.7 5.8 -1.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,290 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.3 42.0 13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 54.2 36.5 8.9
– Net Position: -2,290 1,269 1,021
– Gross Longs: 10,170 9,646 3,064
– Gross Shorts: 12,460 8,377 2,043
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.6 35.1 79.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.9 20.9 -0.5

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.0 39.0 5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.4 81.5 1.9
– Net Position: 20,409 -22,491 2,082
– Gross Longs: 29,107 20,634 3,092
– Gross Shorts: 8,698 43,125 1,010
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.7 34.0 100.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.6 -19.5 31.6

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,518 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -883 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 62.8 6.7 19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.9 0.5 8.9
– Net Position: -1,518 554 964
– Gross Longs: 5,581 599 1,758
– Gross Shorts: 7,099 45 794
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 13.3 to 1 2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.2 92.2 21.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.4 61.4 -5.9

 


Article By InvestMacro.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Cotton speculators bets continue to rise to new 3-Year high

By InvestMacro COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 5th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Cotton speculative positions continued to draw higher this week with a gain of +5,154 contracts. This is the eleventh rise in the past thirteen weeks to bring the speculator level to over a 3-year high dating back to June 12th of 2018. Cotton prices have been surging as well with prices reaching the highest thresholds since 2011. Needless to say that the Cotton Speculator Strength Index is currently at a 100 percent score again this week (meaning the highest level of bullish speculator positioning over the past three-year range). Joining Cotton with bullish-extreme strength readings this week are Lean Hogs, COFFEE and Sugar among the soft commodities.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-05-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 2,230,794 48 398,307 39 -443,259 50 44,952 78
Gold 483,789 21 182,582 53 -203,702 47 21,120 31
Silver 139,763 7 16,379 39 -27,778 72 11,399 6
Copper 185,655 16 14,417 53 -18,918 46 4,501 51
Palladium 9,705 14 -3,230 0 3,510 99 -280 28
Platinum 62,109 25 5,515 10 -10,403 94 4,888 30
Natural Gas 1,376,788 50 -133,708 38 96,637 61 37,071 73
Brent 197,795 38 -37,021 51 30,935 42 6,086 89
Heating Oil 440,286 77 37,548 92 -66,885 0 29,337 100
Soybeans 715,835 25 51,401 43 -22,592 61 -28,809 24
Corn 1,397,458 4 297,005 68 -237,593 38 -59,412 9
Coffee 306,363 63 66,571 97 -71,022 4 4,451 19
Sugar 888,354 28 247,375 87 -293,135 13 45,760 64
Wheat 373,320 17 7,312 53 3,695 44 -11,007 49

 


CORN Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 297,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,459 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 278,546 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.4 48.0 9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.1 65.0 13.3
– Net Position: 297,005 -237,593 -59,412
– Gross Longs: 410,799 670,303 126,389
– Gross Shorts: 113,794 907,896 185,801
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.0 38.1 8.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.3 2.7 8.5

 


SUGAR Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 247,375 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 248,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.4 41.9 10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 74.9 4.8
– Net Position: 247,375 -293,135 45,760
– Gross Longs: 296,884 372,006 88,637
– Gross Shorts: 49,509 665,141 42,877
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.5 12.6 64.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.6 10.9 -6.9

 


COFFEE Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 66,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,575 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.6 39.6 3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.9 62.8 2.4
– Net Position: 66,571 -71,022 4,451
– Gross Longs: 84,602 121,365 11,705
– Gross Shorts: 18,031 192,387 7,254
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.9 4.2 19.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -8.4 0.5

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.2 56.2 6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.0 59.4 10.8
– Net Position: 51,401 -22,592 -28,809
– Gross Longs: 137,547 402,376 48,264
– Gross Shorts: 86,146 424,968 77,073
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.1 60.5 23.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.4 13.6 -12.6

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.1 49.0 11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.5 54.6 7.0
– Net Position: 2,462 -22,153 19,691
– Gross Longs: 80,454 196,027 47,656
– Gross Shorts: 77,992 218,180 27,965
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.3 69.2 49.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.6 25.5 8.0

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,163 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 44.9 10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.0 54.8 12.6
– Net Position: 33,852 -28,700 -5,152
– Gross Longs: 88,928 130,125 31,412
– Gross Shorts: 55,076 158,825 36,564
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 11.7 84.3 74.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -41.9 42.5 26.7

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 73,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,406 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,023 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.7 30.0 7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.2 52.2 13.7
– Net Position: 73,429 -57,148 -16,281
– Gross Longs: 109,947 77,177 18,907
– Gross Shorts: 36,518 134,325 35,188
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.2 23.2 0.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.3 1.9 -2.8

 


COTTON Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 121,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.2 32.9 7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.5 78.7 3.2
– Net Position: 121,286 -133,285 11,999
– Gross Longs: 134,307 95,687 21,371
– Gross Shorts: 13,021 228,972 9,372
– Long to Short Ratio: 10.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 88.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.8 -10.5 5.4

 


COCOA Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 43,997 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 19,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 46.4 4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.0 65.6 3.2
– Net Position: 43,997 -48,301 4,304
– Gross Longs: 79,217 116,792 12,283
– Gross Shorts: 35,220 165,093 7,979
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 63.5 35.7 57.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.4 -10.5 15.7

 


WHEAT Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,957 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.8 41.2 8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.8 40.2 11.0
– Net Position: 7,312 3,695 -11,007
– Gross Longs: 96,203 153,942 30,210
– Gross Shorts: 88,891 150,247 41,217
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.2 44.4 49.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.6 28.1 -5.6

 


Article By InvestMacro.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

COT Speculator Extremes: Brazil Real leads weekly Bullish Standings, Mexican Peso is most Bearish

By CountingPips.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday July 20 2021.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and the Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying instrument.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, which has been a common method among many leading COT practitioners. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data tables)


Speculators or Non-Commercials Explained:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by CFTC, are made up of large trading funds, hedge funds, commodity funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can potentially be a signal of overbought and oversold conditions and other times can signal a breakout and possibly a counter-trend move taking in the price trend. These processes can play out in weeks to over many months and even years.


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brazil Real

Brazil Real leads most extreme cot standings and currencies
The Brazil Real speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week for a second straight week. The BRL speculator level is currently at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range just down from last week’s 100% strength score (meaning speculative sentiment is at the highest level over past three years).

The extreme positioning shows that speculators have been shedding their bearish sentiment in the real that had prevailed in the currency since the second half of 2019. The BRLUSD price has been on the back-foot against the dollar for some time now but perhaps the newfound positive sentiment among speculators portends a potential breakout higher in the future.


Coffee Futures

Coffee Futures Extreme Positions Bullish

Coffee positions are at the second highest extreme position with the Strength Index Level is now at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range. The Coffee net positions rose by 21.1 percent this week from last week. Sentiment among speculators has been bullish since late in 2019 but the Coffee prices have particularly shot up since the fourth quarter of 2020. Even earlier this week Coffee futures jumped as supply constraints continue to keep prices elevated. It would seem likely that Coffee speculator positioning may stay bullish for time to come.


2-Year Bond

2-Year Bond Speculators Bullish Extreme

The 2-Year Bond speculator trader’s futures position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 2-Year Strength Index Level resides at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The 2-Year speculators heavily cut back on their bearish positions this week while their bullish positions rose – creating an extreme reading in positioning. This reflects a dent in the economic outlook earlier in the week (and a quick drop in longer term bond yields) perhaps due to the Delta variant. The big picture outlook in the 2-Year is not changed very much as the 2-Year price has not moved much and the 2-Year yield remains at a depressed rate of 0.20 percent.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

Mexican Peso Bearish Extreme leads the Week

The Mexican Peso speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The MXN Strength Index Level is at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

Peso positions are the most bearish extreme of the week for a second straight week. Peso speculators have had considerably lower sentiment for the Mexican currency since the all-time high positioning that prevailed in late 2019 and into early 2020. The MXNUSD currency pair has been trending higher since the COVID-induced crash in the currency in March 2020. However, with the current sentiment so low, a further push higher in price could prompt speculators to exit their bearish positions and help the case for peso bulls going forward.


Palladium

COT Extremes: Palladium Speculator Standings are bearish

The Palladium speculator trader’s futures position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Palladium Strength Index Level is at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

Palladium positioning has remained very subdued since the onset of the COVID outbreak in early 2020. Speculative positioning went from very bullish (pre-COVID) to extremely bearish (post) in that time-frame. In fact, the open interest numbers show a very low participation rate in the trading with current open interest levels (contracts open in the market) about only a half to one-third the open interest levels before the outbreak. Despite this, the Palladium price has trended higher consistently and continues to be in a bull market.


Fed Funds

Rounding out the extreme bearish positions, the Fed Funds speculator’s futures position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The FedFunds Strength Index Level resides at a 17 percent score of its 3-year range. The net speculator position was -185,934 net contracts this week saw movement by -4,942 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 49,351 contracts against the total spec short position of 235,285 contracts.


*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (speculators & large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

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