Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 94

The Bank of Canada cut the rate again by 0.5%. Today, traders’ attention is directed to the SNB meeting

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.22%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) is up 0.82%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped 1.85% to an all-time high. The US stocks extended early gains, reversing earlier session declines this week as inflation data offered no surprises and bolstered bets that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates next week. Markets rate the odds of a 25bp rate cut at the December 17–18 FOMC meeting at 95%. The US Consumer Price Index for November rose by 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y, which aligns with expectations. In addition, the Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% m/m and 3.3% y/y, which aligns with expectations.

Technology stocks led the gains, helped by low bond yields and bets that the incoming Trump administration may reduce sector regulation. Tesla (TSLA) jumped 3.6%, up nearly 70% since the November election, while Meta (META) added 5.3%, Nvidia (NVDA) jumped 2.6%, and Broadcom (AVGO) gained 5%.

At its December meeting, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its key interest rate by 50 bps for the second consecutive time, as expected by the markets. This brought the cumulative rate cut to 175 bps from this cycle’s peak of 5%. Nevertheless, the rhetoric of Central Bank policymakers suggests that there will be no more aggressive rate cuts next year, and officials have backtracked on the statement that borrowing costs will be reduced if the base case scenario continues. The sharp interest rate cut followed data that Canada’s GDP grew at a 1% annualized rate in the third quarter, below the Central Bank’s projections, and fourth-quarter growth risks also falling short of estimates.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.34%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.39%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.47%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.26%.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to meet today. Most economists expect a 25bps rate cut, but some economists expect a 0.5% rate cut. This is even though the current rate is at 1%. The Swiss franc has declined slightly over the past few months, but mainly because markets expect a significant rate cut towards the lower boundary of zero. A 0.25% rate cut is already factored into the price, so it will only add volatility to currency pairs with the CHF. But if the SNB surprises and goes for a 0.5% rate cut, the franc could come under selling pressure.

WTI crude oil prices jumped 2.5% to $70.29 a barrel on Wednesday, driven by the European Union’s approval of a new package of sanctions targeting Russian oil flows, adding to supply concerns. However, gains were tempered as the US EIA reported a larger-than-expected increase in gasoline and distillate inventories, signaling weak domestic fuel demand. Adding to market uncertainty, OPEC cut its estimates for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 for the fifth consecutive month, citing weak demand in China and rising non-OPEC+ supply. OPEC+ had earlier postponed plans to increase production, reflecting cautious market dynamics.

The US natural gas prices (XNGUSD) climbed above $3.25/MMBtu, the highest in more than a week, mainly due to projections of colder weather and increased heating demand. In addition, export liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants are receiving more natural gas, averaging 14.0 Bcf/d in December compared to 13.6 in November.

Asian markets were relatively flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.01%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.44%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.77%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.47%.

Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in November 2024 from 4.1% in the previous three months, defying market estimates of 4.2%. It was the lowest unemployment rate since March as the number of jobless fell by 27,000 to an 8-month low. Market sentiment shifted sharply after the data release, as the implied probability of a February rate cut fell to around 50% from 68% before publication.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,084.19 +49.28 (+0.82%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,148.56 −99.27 (−0.22%)

DAX (DE40) 20,399.16 +70.00 (+0.34%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,301.62 +21.26 (+0.26%)

USD Index 106.65 +0.25 (+0.23%)

News feed for: 2024.12.12

Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+2);
Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 10:30 (GMT+2);
Switzerland SNB Press Conference at 11:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+2);
US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

12 Dec

EURUSD Under Pressure US inflation, France, and ECB Rate

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair declined to 1.0504 on Thursday, influenced by investor reactions to the latest US inflation data. The November US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a rise of 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with forecasts but indicating a slight acceleration from the previous 0.2% increase. This recent uptick has adjusted market expectations significantly, reducing hopes for a substantial interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting. According to CME Watch, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut is now pegged at 94%.

US inflation stands at 2.7% year-on-year, slightly up from 2.6%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures despite elevated interest rates. This scenario indicates that consumers remain active, which could complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy strategy.

Meanwhile, the political situation in France has been factored into the EUR/USD rates, though some underlying tensions persist.

Attention now turns to the European Central Bank (ECB), whose interest rate is 3.4%. Market participants are keenly awaiting whether the ECB will adjust rates in its upcoming meeting.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

H4 chart: the EUR/USD has recently completed a decline to the level of 1.0479 and appears poised to continue this downward trend towards 1.0470. Following this, a corrective move to 1.0535 is anticipated, and once this is complete, another decline to 1.0444 could follow. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned below zero and trending downwards, indicating continued selling pressure.

H1 chart: the pair is developing a downward structure towards 1.0470, currently consolidating around 1.0505. A breakout below this level could lead to reaching the target level of 1.0470. Subsequently, a rebound to 1.0535 might occur, followed by a further decline to 1.0444. This scenario is supported by the Stochastic Oscillator, with its signal line above 80 but poised to drop towards 20, suggesting a potential shift from overbought conditions to lower levels.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Dec

Inflation is rising in Germany. Silver prices hit a one-month high

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones (US30) was down 0.35% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) closed negative 0.30%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.34%. Investors were cautious ahead of Wednesday’s expected consumer inflation report, which could significantly impact Federal Reserve policy. Despite the market decline, the indices remain near record highs, driven by optimism that the inflation data could reinforce expectations of a soft landing and pave the way for a Fed rate cut in December. The Consumer Price Index is expected to rise slightly to 2.7% y/y in November from 2.6% y/y in October. Meanwhile, the Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to be unchanged from October at 3.3% y/y in November.

Oracle (ORCL) is down more than 6% after reporting adjusted second-quarter revenue of $14.06 billion, below the consensus estimate of $14.12 billion. EBay (EBAY) shares are down more than 2% after Jefferies downgraded the stock to “unweighted” from “hold” with a $52 price target. Alphabet (GOOG) is up more than 5% and led the Nasdaq 100 stocks higher after it disclosed a breakthrough in quantum computing with its new Willow quantum chip.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.14%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.38%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.86%. Investor sentiment was dampened by disappointing trade data from China, which partially offset optimism from China’s announcement of fiscal and monetary policy easing for next year. Traders also refrained from making big bets ahead of tomorrow’s release of the US Consumer Price Index and Thursday’s ECB monetary policy decision.

German annual inflation rose to 2.2% in November 2024 from 2% in October, which is in line with preliminary estimates and the highest in four months. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, hit a six-month high of 3% in November. Norway’s annualized consumer inflation rate fell to 2.4% in November 2024 from 2.6% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the tax-adjusted Consumer Price Index excluding energy (CPI-ATE) rose to 3% year-over-year in November after rising 2.7% in October.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) traded near $32 an ounce on Tuesday, remaining near one-month highs as Chinese policymakers unveiled plans for additional economic stimulus, boosting demand prospects in the world’s top metals consumer. Like other precious metals, Silver also benefited from rising expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again this month.

WTI crude oil prices rose to around $69 a barrel on Wednesday, rising for the third consecutive session amid an improved demand outlook. This came after China announced plans to implement a sufficiently loose monetary policy next year to revitalize its economy, which could boost energy demand from the world’s largest oil importer. In support of that projection, China’s crude oil imports rose in November for the first time in seven months, rising more than 14% year-on-year.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.53%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.50%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.36%. In Asia, market attention turned to China’s annual Central Economic Work Conference, which began today. This closed-door meeting, which usually lasts two to three days, is an opportunity for China’s top leaders to assess the state of the economy and set priorities for the coming year.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has already cut the official money rate by 125 bps this year to 4.25%. Markets are now pricing in a 59% chance of another 50bp rate cut at the Central Bank’s next meeting in February, further weighing on the local currency.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,034.91 −17.94 (−0.30%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,247.83 −154.10 (−0.35%)

DAX (DE40) 20,329.16 −16.80 (−0.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,280.36 −71.72 (−0.86%)

USD Index 106.41 +0.26 (+0.24%)

News feed for: 2024.12.11

US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+2);
Canada BoC Monetary Policy Statement at 16:45 (GMT+2);
Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+2);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

11 Dec

Australian Dollar Hits Four-Week Low Amid RBA Stance and US Dollar Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair continues its downward trajectory, reaching a four-week low of 0.6386 on Wednesday. This decline is primarily influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to maintain interest rates at 4.35% per annum for the ninth consecutive meeting. This decision, which was widely expected, reflects the central bank’s cautious approach despite ongoing inflation concerns.

RBA Governor Michelle Bullock emphasised that the central bank’s current stance on inflation is deliberate, aiming to signal responsiveness to softening economic indicators. The market currently anticipates a high likelihood of an RBA rate cut in February, with a 63% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction. Expectations are set for further cuts at subsequent meetings through May as investors and analysts factor in potential easing measures.

AUD supporters’ focus is shifting towards Thursday’s release of Australian employment data, which could provide further clues about the economic outlook and influence RBA policy decisions.

The Australian dollar is also experiencing significant pressure from a strengthening US dollar, which adds to its challenges.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

H4 chart: the AUD/USD is navigating a wide consolidation range centred around 0.6450. The pair is currently forming a downward movement towards 0.6347. Upon reaching this level, a corrective rise to 0.6450 is expected, potentially testing this resistance from below before possibly initiating a new decline towards 0.6215. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and continues to trend downwards.

H1 chart: the market is actively developing a downward wave towards 0.6347. After hitting this target, a corrective movement towards 0.6450 could occur. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and moving towards 20, confirms this scenario, indicating the potential for further downward pressure before any corrective rebound.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Dec

USDInd steady ahead of US CPI report

By ForexTime

USDInd ↑ 0.3% WTD, trapped in range

Over past year US CPI triggered moves of ↑ 0.7% & ↓ 0.4%

ECB decision could spark more volatility

Technical levels = 105.50 & 106.80

FXTM’s USDInd is on standby mode ahead of the US inflation report on Wednesday 11th December.

Bulls have held their ground despite last Friday’s soft US jobs report boosting Fed cut bets.

DXY

Note: FXTM’s USDInd tracks the US Dollar Index. This measures how the dollar performs against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

The US November job report revealed:

Nonfarm payrolls increased 227,000 last month from 12,000 in October.

The unemployment rate edged to 4.2% from 4.1%.

Average hourly wages unchanged at 4.0% YoY and 0.4% MoM.

This report reinforced bets around lower US rates with traders now pricing in an 86% probability of a 25-bps cut in December.

Still, FXTM’s USDInd is up roughly 0.3% week-to-date and trading around 106.30 as of writing.

Geopolitical risk in the Middle East and political uncertainty in Korea could be factors supporting the dollar.

In addition, the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada and Swiss National Bank are expected to cut interest rates this week.

Note: The Euro accounts for almost 60% of the USDInd weighting, 9% of the Cad and roughly 4% of the Franc.

A weaker euro, cad and franc could push the dollar index higher and vice versa.

Redirecting our attention back toward the inflation reading:

US November CPI report

The November US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday, December 11th may impact bets around how aggressively the Fed cuts rates in the new year.

CPI is projected to rise 0.3% month-on-month in November from 0.2% prior.

Rise 2.7% year-over-year from the 2.6% prior.

Core: to remain unchanged at 0.3% month-on-month.

Core: unchanged at 3.3% year-on-year.

Over the past year, the US CPI report has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.7% or declines of 0.4% in a 6-hour window post-release.

The USDInd could slip on signs of cooling price pressures.

A hotter-than-expected CPI report could push the USDInd higher.

Keep an eye on the technicals

Prices remain in a range on the daily charts with support at 105.50 and resistance at 106.80.

A sold breakout above 106.40 may signal a move toward 106.80 and 107.60.

Should prices slip below 105.80, bears may be encouraged to target 105.50 and the 50-day SMA at 104.80.

USDInd9

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

10 Dec

Japanese Yen Weakens as USD/JPY Climbs Amid BoJ Rate Hike Uncertainty

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair reached a high of 151.07 on Tuesday, marking its highest level in a week. This movement is largely attributed to ongoing uncertainty regarding the timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The market remains split on whether the BoJ will implement a rate increase in December or delay it until January.

Recent statements from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted that a rate hike is imminent, based on stable economic indicators aligning with expectations. Contrarily, BoJ policymaker Toyoaki Nakamura expressed concerns over the sustainability of wage growth and signs of economic weakening in Japan, adding layers of uncertainty that are influencing market dynamics.

Recent GDP data for Japan showed a growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, surpassing the expected 0.2% increase. This stronger-than-anticipated economic performance supports a more aggressive stance on future monetary policy adjustments by the BoJ.

Looking ahead, the full scope of the BoJ’s monetary policy for 2025 remains unclear, but increased pressure is expected as the Federal Reserve’s fiscal adjustments set a significant pace for change.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

H4 chart: USD/JPY found support at 149.35 and has since been on an upward trajectory. The pair recently breached the 151.00 level, indicating potential for further gains towards 152.50. Currently, a narrow consolidation range has formed around 151.00. Should there be a downward exit from this range, a corrective move to 149.90 might follow. Conversely, an upward break could see the continuation of the upward wave to 152.50, potentially extending to 153.30. The MACD indicator supports this bullish outlook, with its signal line below zero but ascending sharply.

H1 chart: the market has established a consolidation range around 151.00. A downward exit from this range could lead to a correction towards 149.90. If the pair breaks upwards, it is expected to continue the upward wave towards 152.50. Upon reaching this target, a possible correction back to 149.90 may occur. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this analysis, showing the signal line below 50 and heading towards 20, indicating potential downward movement before resuming upward momentum.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Dec

The NFP report increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut next week. China still fails to stoke inflation with stimulus

By JustMarkets

At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) was down 0.28% (for the week -0.63%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.25% (for the week +0.83%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) added 0.92% (up +3.10% for the week). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices set new record highs on Friday, helped by a stronger-than-expected November employment report reinforcing optimism for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. Nonfarm Payroll Employment rose by 227,000, exceeding the estimate of 214,000, recovering from the bad weather and strikes seen in October. Following the report, traders raised the probability of a December rate cut to 90% from 70%. The rally was led by major technology stocks, with Amazon (+2.9%), Tesla (+5.3%), and Meta (+2.5%) all rising, reflecting confidence in the labor market and potential Fed policy changes.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.41 per dollar in December, the lowest level since April 2020, as investors embraced softer-than-expected labor market data. Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November from 6.5%, beating projections of 6.6% and marking the highest level since September 2021. This is in line with the Bank of Canada’s concerns about a weakening labor market and increased expectations of a 50 bps rate cut this week. In addition, tariff threats by US President-elect Donald Trump, including tariff hikes of 25% for Canada and Mexico and 10% for China, dampened sentiment given Canada’s reliance on US energy and auto demand.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.13% (for the week +4.08%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.31% higher (for the week +3.91%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.39% (for the week +4.27%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.49% (for the week +0.26%). Economists seem to have missed the political situation in France, where President Macron has promised to appoint a new Prime Minister in the coming days and form a new “government of common interests.” In Germany, despite economic woes and political problems at home, the benchmark DAX Index (DE40) has shown surprising resilience, achieving roughly a 20% gain over the past year. This strength is due to globally oriented companies benefiting from international revenue streams and a weakening euro, which improves export competitiveness.

The Eurozone economy grew by 0.4% in Q3, the strongest pace in two years, following 0.2% growth in Q2 and in line with previous estimates. Among the largest economies, Germany’s GDP grew by 0.1%, down from 0.2% in the preliminary estimate but avoided recession. In addition, France’s GDP grew by 0.4%, and the Spanish economy remained resilient (+0.8%). On the other hand, the Italian economy stalled, and the Dutch economy slowed down (+0.8%).

According to banks and industry consultants, OPEC+’s decision to postpone the resumption of supply until April will reduce global oil production next year, which will tighten the balance somewhat, but a glut is still expected. Nevertheless, rising supply, especially from non-OPEC+ countries in the Americas, and weak demand from China remain major concerns. Morgan Stanley raised its estimates for Brent crude oil prices for the third and fourth quarters of 2025 to $70 a barrel from $68 and $66, respectively. ING Groep NV raised its prognosis for Brent to $71 a barrel from $69.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.29%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.13%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 2.18%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.18%.

China’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 0.2% in November 2024 from 0.3% in the previous month, missing market estimates of 0.5% and the lowest since June. The slowdown showed the country’s growing deflation risks despite recent government stimulus measures and the Central Bank’s supportive stance on monetary policy. Inflation remains subdued, which will require continued stimulus.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,090.27 +15.16 (+0.25%)

Dow Jones (US30) 6,090.27 −123.19 (−0.28%)

DAX (DE40) 20,384.61 +25.81 (+0.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,308.61 −40.77 (−0.49%)

USD Index 105.97 +0.26 (+0.24%)

News feed for: 2024.12.09

Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
Mexican Inflation Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

08 Dec

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen bets into small bullish level

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (24,967 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (1,073 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (726 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-10,375 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-9,847 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-5,344 contracts), the British Pound (-2,308 contracts), the EuroFX (-1,480 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,418 contracts), Bitcoin (-399 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-255 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen bets into small bullish level

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the recent bullish moves in the Japanese yen speculator position.

The Japanese yen speculator positions rose this week by almost +25,000 contracts following a similar gain by +24,235 contracts last week and by +18,034 contracts two weeks ago. Yen positions have now increased by a total of +67,236 contracts over these past three weeks which has totally erased the bearish net positioning of the prior five weeks. The positive sentiment by the speculators has pushed the overall net position into a small bullish level of +2,334 contracts which is the first bullish standing since October 22nd.

Over the year, the yen speculator positions have been highly bearish with a weekly average of -75,251 contracts for 2024 so far. The yen positioning fell as low as -184,223 contracts on July 2nd but speculators bearish bets have eased off in the second half of the year and specs did have an eleven-week streak of bullish positions from August to October. The speculator strength score (the percent of current speculator’s level compared to the past 3-years) is a strong 75 percent at the moment.

The yen exchange rate has been on an extremely weak trajectory throughout 2024 as well with the Japanese currency falling to multi-decade lows multiple times. Currently, the yen is still within 8 percent of the latest low with the USDJPY currency pair trading around 150.00.

The yen seems to be at a crossroads at the moment with a lot of money on the sidelines that could take this small bullish position in either direction. The overall direction of the US Dollar will be a major factor in whether this might be near the yen bottom or just another step in a weaker Japanese currency.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (91 percent) and the Japanese Yen (75 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the EuroFX (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (2 percent), Bitcoin (16 percent), the Canadian Dollar (17 percent) and the Swiss Franc (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.5 percent)
EuroFX (0.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (44.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (45.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (74.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (64.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (17.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (20.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (16.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (18.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (91.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (98.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (1.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (30.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (30.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (35.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (44.9 percent)
Bitcoin (16.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (25.2 percent)

Bitcoin tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The New Zealand Dollar (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-25 percent), Swiss Franc (-17 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-8.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.5 percent)
EuroFX (-11.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-29.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-24.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-28.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-4.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-17.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-27.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-8.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-14.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-4.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (8.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-41.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-43.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (-10.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-11.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-13.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-2.3 percent)
Bitcoin (1.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (14.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.4	25.5	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.5	20.7	7.3
– Net Position:	-3,054	1,801	1,253
– Gross Longs:	21,903	9,563	4,009
– Gross Shorts:	24,957	7,762	2,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.6	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	4.8	16.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,009 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	59.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	54.3	8.1
– Net Position:	-57,489	34,476	23,013
– Gross Longs:	167,693	401,120	77,569
– Gross Shorts:	225,182	366,644	54,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	12.6	-12.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,326 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,308 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,634 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.3	46.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	50.5	13.8
– Net Position:	19,326	-8,995	-10,331
– Gross Longs:	98,056	114,068	23,219
– Gross Shorts:	78,730	123,063	33,550
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	57.8	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.8	28.7	-35.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,967 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	43.3	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	43.3	16.2
– Net Position:	2,334	-164	-2,170
– Gross Longs:	93,622	111,171	39,431
– Gross Shorts:	91,288	111,335	41,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.6	28.4	58.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	3.8	-0.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,676 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	83.0	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.9	20.4	25.6
– Net Position:	-41,094	53,351	-12,257
– Gross Longs:	4,874	70,719	9,565
– Gross Shorts:	45,968	17,368	21,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.6	86.4	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	27.6	-39.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -159,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -154,002 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	80.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.8	29.6	11.6
– Net Position:	-159,346	165,505	-6,159
– Gross Longs:	21,696	261,571	31,609
– Gross Shorts:	181,042	96,066	37,768
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	84.3	12.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	6.9	5.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.6	37.4	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	49.1	13.0
– Net Position:	21,401	-22,286	885
– Gross Longs:	86,699	71,206	25,601
– Gross Shorts:	65,298	93,492	24,716
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.5	16.7	52.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	11.5	-33.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	66.5	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.5	34.4	7.3
– Net Position:	-23,308	25,730	-2,422
– Gross Longs:	21,213	53,338	3,446
– Gross Shorts:	44,521	27,608	5,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.9	96.3	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.7	45.1	-41.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 4,184 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	52.5	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	53.8	4.2
– Net Position:	4,184	-1,838	-2,346
– Gross Longs:	55,114	77,150	3,777
– Gross Shorts:	50,930	78,988	6,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.9	73.2	9.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	9.8	3.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -17,414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	53.5	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.4	22.7	5.7
– Net Position:	-17,414	18,647	-1,233
– Gross Longs:	25,853	32,419	2,213
– Gross Shorts:	43,267	13,772	3,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	66.7	13.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	14.6	-5.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.7	4.4	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.0	1.6	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,595	1,040	555
– Gross Longs:	30,625	1,615	1,600
– Gross Shorts:	32,220	575	1,045
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	2.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	89.4	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-1.8	1.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Dec

Speculator Extremes: Lean Hogs, T-Bonds, US Dollar & Euro lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 3rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 33.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 91,759 net contracts this week with a rise by 10,520 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is now at a 92.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 48.9 this week. The speculator position registered -214,352 net contracts this week with a weekly decrease by -19,666 contracts in speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Australian Dollar speculator level resides at a 91.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -4.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 21,401 net contracts this week with a drop by -10,375 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 90.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 0.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 66,727 net contracts this week with a decrease of -3,886 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 88.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.5 this week.

The speculator position was -1,996 net contracts this week with a small rise by 107 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -3,054 net contracts this week with a small decline of -255 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Euro speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.8 this week. The speculator position was -57,489 net contracts this week with a dip of -1,480 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Heating Oil speculator level resides at a 0.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -22,279 net contracts this week with a small gain of 179 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 1.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -41.7 this week. The speculator position was -23,308 net contracts this week with an increase of 1,073 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 6.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.7 this week. The speculator position was -1,861,100 net contracts this week with a drop by -95,529 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News

07 Dec

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as all six of the metals markets we cover had slightly higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (9,398 contracts) with Platinum (1,826 contracts), Copper (541 contracts), Silver (477 contracts), Steel (107 contracts) and Palladium (9 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (89 percent) and Gold (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (78.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (75.3 percent)
Silver (70.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (70.2 percent)
Copper (43.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (42.5 percent)
Platinum (64.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.1 percent)
Palladium (60.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.6 percent)
Steel (88.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.3 percent)

Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that there are no positive movers currently in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores this week with Copper (-20 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-13.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-13.7 percent)
Silver (-29.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.2 percent)
Copper (-20.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-23.8 percent)
Platinum (-34.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-23.0 percent)
Palladium (-4.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.7 percent)
Steel (-3.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 259,736 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 250,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.6	13.7	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	75.6	4.7
– Net Position:	259,736	-286,275	26,539
– Gross Longs:	307,611	63,251	48,337
– Gross Shorts:	47,875	349,526	21,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	19.2	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	13.8	-7.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,783 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.9	24.4	22.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	70.6	8.0
– Net Position:	43,260	-62,019	18,759
– Gross Longs:	64,285	32,688	29,478
– Gross Shorts:	21,025	94,707	10,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	25.8	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.2	25.8	-1.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 10,466 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,925 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.6	35.6	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	42.5	5.7
– Net Position:	10,466	-14,783	4,317
– Gross Longs:	86,478	75,871	16,412
– Gross Shorts:	76,012	90,654	12,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.0	57.7	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.5	25.1	-42.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.5	18.3	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	48.6	3.8
– Net Position:	20,486	-28,718	8,232
– Gross Longs:	55,415	17,292	11,849
– Gross Shorts:	34,929	46,010	3,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	28.5	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.0	26.9	37.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,652 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	49.4	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.6	18.4	7.7
– Net Position:	-5,643	4,841	802
– Gross Longs:	5,402	7,728	2,015
– Gross Shorts:	11,045	2,887	1,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	38.5	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	3.2	5.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,103 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	66.5	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	59.8	0.6
– Net Position:	-1,996	1,926	70
– Gross Longs:	7,486	19,039	248
– Gross Shorts:	9,482	17,113	178
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.7	12.0	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	3.5	0.4

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