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COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Sugar & Lean Hogs

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (12,221 contracts) with Lean Hogs (10,520 contracts), Soybeans (7,453 contracts), Cotton (3,311 contracts), Live Cattle (3,295 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,862 contracts) and Corn (359 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-9,345 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,665 contracts), Coffee (-3,886 contracts) and Cocoa (-1,570 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent) and Coffee (91 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (84 percent), Soybean Oil (56 percent) and Corn (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Cotton (22 percent), Soybeans (23 percent) and Wheat (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (51.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (51.3 percent)
Sugar (32.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (28.3 percent)
Coffee (90.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (94.7 percent)
Soybeans (23.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (21.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (56.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (60.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (13.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.7 percent)
Live Cattle (83.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (80.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (100.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (91.8 percent)
Cotton (21.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.7 percent)
Cocoa (47.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (49.5 percent)
Wheat (28.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (35.7 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (33 percent) and Live Cattle (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (15 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-35 percent), Soybean Oil (-23 percent) and Soybeans (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (15.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.1 percent)
Sugar (-1.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-10.4 percent)
Coffee (0.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.6 percent)
Soybeans (-4.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-9.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (-23.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-9.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-42.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-40.1 percent)
Live Cattle (26.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (24.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (33.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (31.7 percent)
Cotton (-4.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.2 percent)
Cocoa (-3.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-4.7 percent)
Wheat (-35.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-30.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 137,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 136,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	46.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	53.1	10.5
– Net Position:	137,228	-101,968	-35,260
– Gross Longs:	404,920	711,737	125,015
– Gross Shorts:	267,692	813,705	160,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	49.0	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-17.1	12.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 88,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	50.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	62.7	6.0
– Net Position:	88,315	-108,348	20,033
– Gross Longs:	228,964	449,489	73,180
– Gross Shorts:	140,649	557,837	53,147
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	65.3	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	6.1	-21.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,886 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,613 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.6	35.1	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	69.6	2.9
– Net Position:	66,727	-69,817	3,090
– Gross Longs:	78,015	70,936	9,014
– Gross Shorts:	11,288	140,753	5,924
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.9	8.7	64.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-0.2	-3.7

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -98,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,937 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	56.4	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	43.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-98,484	115,653	-17,169
– Gross Longs:	158,897	520,431	49,744
– Gross Shorts:	257,381	404,778	66,913
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.3	77.3	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	4.4	6.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,493 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	53.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	59.4	4.7
– Net Position:	26,828	-32,252	5,424
– Gross Longs:	138,699	303,490	32,253
– Gross Shorts:	111,871	335,742	26,829
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	47.0	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	22.8	-15.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,832 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	45.9	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	44.0	5.5
– Net Position:	-33,970	11,231	22,739
– Gross Longs:	132,664	277,159	55,879
– Gross Shorts:	166,634	265,928	33,140
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	82.2	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.0	40.8	-2.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 97,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,749 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.4	31.0	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	51.6	13.7
– Net Position:	97,044	-72,727	-24,317
– Gross Longs:	163,456	109,258	24,090
– Gross Shorts:	66,412	181,985	48,407
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.6	33.6	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.2	-26.3	-9.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 91,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.0	28.0	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	50.5	8.9
– Net Position:	91,759	-82,933	-8,826
– Gross Longs:	180,550	103,197	23,829
– Gross Shorts:	88,791	186,130	32,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	39.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.1	-33.8	-12.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -13,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,901 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	46.3	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	40.4	5.6
– Net Position:	-13,590	13,602	-12
– Gross Longs:	59,802	107,282	12,854
– Gross Shorts:	73,392	93,680	12,866
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	78.2	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	4.3	-4.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.3	35.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	69.4	4.1
– Net Position:	37,165	-43,594	6,429
– Gross Longs:	56,340	46,774	11,738
– Gross Shorts:	19,175	90,368	5,309
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	49.3	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	3.1	6.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -61,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	38.3	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	22.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-61,537	66,335	-4,798
– Gross Longs:	125,216	162,383	29,486
– Gross Shorts:	186,753	96,048	34,284
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	74.1	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.3	35.2	3.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

06 Dec

OPEC+ countries postponed production cuts until spring. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly lowered the cash reserve ratio

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) was down 0.55% at Thursday’s close, the S&P500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.19%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.31%. Liquidation of long positions and profit-taking before Friday’s release of the monthly payroll report negatively impacted stocks. In addition, hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Daly on Wednesday evening weighed on stocks when she stated that the Fed has “no sense of urgency” to cut interest rates.

Economic news out of the US on Thursday was mixed for stocks. Weekly initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 to a 6-week high of 224,000, indicating a weaker labor market than expected at 215,000. The US trade deficit for October narrowed to $73.8 billion from $83.8 billion in September, better than expectations of $75.0 billion and a positive for Q4 GDP.

Equity markets in Europe rallied on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.63%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.37%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.57%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.16% yesterday. Eurozone retail sales for October fell by 0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.3% m/m and the biggest decline in 4 months. S&P’s German Construction PMI for November fell 2.2 to 38.0, the steepest decline in 7 months. German factory orders for October fell by 1.5% m/m, which was a smaller decline than expectations of 2.0% m/m. In France, markets remained stable despite political turmoil.

The World Gold Council reported that China, a major gold consumer, saw a decline in physical demand in 2024 while investment remained strong. The council also forecast that both sectors could stabilize, with demand for gold jewelry likely to increase and gold investment likely to slow in 2025.

WTI crude oil prices extended their recent decline to around $68 a barrel on Friday as OPEC+’s decision to postpone restoring halted production failed to lift market sentiment amid expectations of oversupply next year. On Thursday, the producer group postponed a supply increase for another three months, gradually increasing in April and gradually cutting output over 18 months at a slower pace than originally planned. Experts believe that oil will show moderate growth over the next week after a sharp drop in the previous week.

Asian markets traded without any dynamics. Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.30%, Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.61%, Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.92%, and Australian ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.15% yesterday.

The offshore yuan held steady at 7.26 per dollar, supported by rising expectations of potential additional stimulus measures from the Chinese authorities during key policy meetings in mid-December, notably the Politburo meeting and the annual Central Economic Work Conference. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley forecast a 40 bps cut in the Chinese central bank’s main discount rate in 2025, which would be the largest interest rate cut in a decade.

The Australian dollar fell as low as $0.643 on Friday, nearing four-month lows, as disappointing economic growth data fueled speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may take a softer stance at next week’s monetary policy meeting.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points to 4.0%, the first cut since April 2020. The RBI governor said the decision was in line with the central bank’s neutral policy, reflecting a balanced approach to liquidity management while ensuring economic stability. India’s GDP growth slowed to 5.4% year-on-year in September 2024 from 6.7% in the previous quarter, the weakest since December 2022. At the same time, annual inflation rose to 6.21% in October 2024, the highest in 14 months, and exceeded the central bank’s upper tolerance limit of 6% for the first time in a year.

Vietnam’s annual inflation rate fell to 2.77% in November 2024, down from 2.89% in the previous month. The decline was mainly due to softening inflation on food and catering services. Meanwhile, the annual core inflation rate, which excludes volatile goods, rose to a seven-month high of 2.77%, up from 2.68% in October.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,075.11 −11.38 (−0.19%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,765.71 −248.33 (−0.55%)

DAX (DE40) 20,358.80 +126.66 (+0.63%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,349.38 +13.57 (+0.16%)

USD index 105.83 +0.12 (+0.11%)

News feed for: 2024.12.06

German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 Dec

Week Ahead: Central banks galore

By ForexTime

ECB, BoC, SNB expected to CUT interest rates

RBA seen leaving rates unchanged

EU50: Over past year ECB triggered moves of ↑ 1.1% & ↓ 0.6%

USDCAD near 4 year high, ↑ 6% YTD

AU200 & USDCHF on breakout watch

Central bank decisions could spark fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead.

The European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Canada (BoC), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be under the spotlight.

These high-impact events will be complemented with inflation data from the United States and Europe’s largest economy among others:

Monday, 9th December

CN50: China PPI, CPI
JP225: Japan GDP, current account
TWN: Taiwan trade

Tuesday, 10th December

AU200: RBA rate decision
CN50: China trade
GER40: Germany CPI
ZAR: South Africa manufacturing production

Wednesday, 11th December

CN50: Central Economic Work Conference
CAD: Canada rate decision
JP225: Japan PPI
ZAR: South Africa CPI, retail sales
USDInd: US CPI

Thursday, 12th December

AU200: Australia unemployment
EU50: ECB rate decision
CHF: SNB rate decision
US500: US initial jobless claims, PPI

Friday, 13th December

FRA40: France CPI
EUR: Eurozone industrial production
JP225: Japan industrial production, Tankan index
NZD: Manufacturing PMI
UK100: UK industrial production

Here are 4 assets that could be impacted by key 4 bank announcements:

1) RBA meeting: AU200

FXTM’s AU200 could be influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision.

Note: This index tracks the underlying ASX 200 Index

Markets widely expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged at its meeting on 10th December.

Cooling inflation may keep RBA doves at bay, but weak economic growth could support the argument for rate cuts in 2025.

Traders are pricing in a 58% probability of a 25 bp RBA cut by February 2025 with a move fully priced in by April 2025.

Note: Over the past 12 months, the RBA decision has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.8%, or as much as 0.1% declines in a 6-hour window post-release.

Looking at the charts, key levels of interest can be found at 8533.6, 21-day and 50-day SMA.

au200

2) BoC meeting: USDCAD

The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates by 25 or 50 bps at its meeting on 11th December.

This is based on weak economic growth and rising inflation which hit 2% in October.

Traders are currently pricing in an 85% probability of a 50-basis point BoC cut in December.

Note: Over the past 12 months, the BoC decision has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.3%, or as much as 0.2% in declines in a 6-hour window post-release.

Looking at the charts, the USDCAD remains bullish and is trading near 4-year highs. Should the BOC move ahead with a jumbo-sized rate cut, this could push the USDCAD to fresh 4-year highs beyond 1.4178.

*This was published before the US jobs report on Friday 6th December.

3) ECB meeting: EU50

The ECB will likely cut interest rates by 25 bps at its next meeting on December 12th.

With political risk and Trump’s tariff threats threatening the growth outlook, Lagarde is expected to strike a dovish note – signaling further rate cuts in 2025.

Traders have fully priced in a 25 bps move by December with another rate cut expected by January 2025.

Bets around lower EU rates could support FXTM’s EU50 which tracks the Euro Stoxx 50 index. As of writing, the index has gained almost 10% YTD.

Prices are pushing higher on the daily charts with the next key level of interest at 5000.

Note: Over the past 12 months, the ECB decision has triggered upside moves of as much as 1.1%, or as much as 0.6% in declines in a 6-hour window post-release.

eu50

4) SNB meeting: USDCHF

The Swiss National Bank is expected to cut interest rates at its meeting on 12th December. But markets are divided on whether it will be a 25 or 50 bp cut.

With the economy under pressure and exposed to political risk, more rate cuts could be on the cards.

Traders are pricing in a 45% probability of a 50-bps cut by December.

Note: Over the past 12 months, the SNB decision has triggered upside moves of as much as 1.1%, or as much as 0.4% in declines in a 6-hour window post-release.

Looking at the charts, the USDCHF is under pressure on the daily charts with resistance below the 200-day SMA. Key levels of interest can be found at 0.8900, 0.8850 and 0.8715.

usdhcf

*This was published before the US jobs report on Friday 6th December.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 Dec

Gold Prices Dip but Remain Supported by Fed Rate Cut Expectations

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices dipped below 2,620.00 USD per troy ounce on Friday, marking a second consecutive session of decline. The value of the precious metal continues to be influenced by developments in US economic indicators and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Investor attention is particularly focused on the upcoming November US labour market data, poised to provide further insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy directions. Recent statistics indicating an increase in unemployment claims suggest potential cooling in the employment sector. This data arrives just ahead of the highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report, which is crucial for gauging the health of the US labour market.

The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in December currently stands at 70%, with expectations of a 25-basis-point reduction. Such a cut would likely benefit Gold, as lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Gold.

On the demand side, despite a decline in interest in jewellery, China’s investment in Gold remains robust, according to World Bank data, providing fundamental support to Gold prices.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

H4 chart: Gold has experienced a growth wave, peaking at 2,666.35, followed by a correction down to 2,616.60. A new growth impulse towards 2,663.00 is underway, and we anticipate the formation of a consolidation range around this level. If the price breaks upward, it may continue its ascent towards 2,714.00. The MACD indicator supports this bullish outlook, with its signal line hovering near zero and pointing upwards.

H1 chart: the XAU/USD has completed a growth impulse to 2,640.00 and is likely to form a narrow consolidation range around this level. An upward breakout would suggest the continuation of the growth impulse to 2,663.00, potentially extending to 2,666.00. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 50 and trending upwards towards 80, indicating strong upward momentum.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

05 Dec

Bitcoin has surpassed the $100,000 mark for the first time. Today, the focus of oil traders is on the OPEC+ meeting

By JustMarkets

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.69%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.61%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 1.24%. All three major US stock indices closed at record highs. Market sentiment was buoyed by strong momentum in the technology sector and encouraging earnings reports from major companies. In addition, traders closely followed the statements of Fed Chairman Powell. At the DealBook summit, Powell reiterated that the Central Bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates, emphasizing that the US economy remains resilient but continues to face inflationary pressures.

Bitcoin prices soared above the key $100,000 mark on Thursday, hitting new all-time highs, as Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House sparked optimism for a more favorable regulatory environment for the digital assets industry. Trump’s selection of Paul Atkins to replace outgoing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who has introduced tougher rules to regulate digital assets, has further fueled that optimism. Atkins, a strong advocate of digital assets, has broad support from market participants.

Equity markets in Europe rallied on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.66%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.49%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.28%. The French government will resign for the first time since 1962. The French Parliament backed a vote of no confidence in Michel Barnier’s government. He will leave office after serving the shortest term as prime minister in modern French history. Amid the political chaos, more lawmakers are demanding the resignation of Macron, whose term lasts until 2027.

OPEC+ representatives will meet today. The alliance is expected to extend the current production cuts until the first quarter of 2025, but analysts emphasize that the tone and details of Thursday’s meeting could significantly affect prices. Despite the drop, the market received some support from a larger-than-expected decline in US crude oil inventories, as reported by the Energy Information Administration. Geopolitical tensions also impacted market dynamics, including a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, political unrest in South Korea after a brief declaration of martial law, and an escalating conflict in Syria that could involve oil-producing countries.

Asian markets were flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.07%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.52%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell 0.02% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.38%.

PMI reports for November showed a second consecutive month of growth in China’s manufacturing sector, although growth in the services sector slowed. Meanwhile, Beijing recently banned exports of critical military minerals to the US, a retaliation to Washington’s recent actions against China’s microchip industry.

The Australian dollar stabilized near $0.643 on Thursday after data showed that Australia posted its largest trade surplus in eight months in October, driven by higher exports. However, the Australian dollar remained near four-month lows after falling nearly 1 percent on Wednesday. Weak GDP data fueled expectations of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia soon.

The kiwi remains under pressure in New Zealand due to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s dovish stance. The RBNZ cut its benchmark interest rate by 125bps this year to 4.25% and said it would further ease monetary policy early next year, possibly by another 50bps if economic conditions evolve as estimated.

Thailand’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 0.95% in November 2024 from 0.83% in October, the highest since May. However, the result fell short of market expectations of 1.12% and remained outside the Central Bank’s target range of 1% to 3% for the sixth month. The annualized core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy prices, rose to 0.80%, the highest since July 2023 and above estimates of 0.77%.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,086.49 +36.61 (+0.61%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,014.04 +308.51 (+0.69%)

DAX (DE40) 20,232.14 +215.39 (+1.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,335.81 −23.60 (−0.28%)

USD Index 106.29 −0.03 (−0.03%)

News feed for: 2024.12.05

Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2);
UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
OPEC+ meeting at 13:00 (GMT+2);
US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Dec

Market round-up: Bitcoin hits $100k, OPEC+ delay output hike

By ForexTime

Bitcoin smashes through $100k

“OG” crypto boasts $2 trillion market cap, ↑ 140% YTD

OPEC+ delay oil production hikes until April

Brent trapped in range – support at $70, resistance at $76

Bitcoin surpasses the $100,000 milestone while oil turns choppy following the OPEC+ decision.

Here is what you need to know:

1) Bitcoin’s $100k dream becomes reality

Bitcoin’s $100k dream became a reality on Thursday morning…

Prices jumped over 6%, smashing through this key milestone as investors cheered Trump’s pick to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Crypto advocate Paul Atkins is set to replace Chair Gary Gensler, boosting hopes for more relaxed regulations in the crypto space.

Sentiment towards the crypto space has also been boosted by recent comments from Fed Chair who compared Bitcoin to gold but “only its virtual, it’s digital”.

Hitting $100,000 is certainly a major milestone and something that could support gains for the remainder of 2024.

The next key event that could rock Bitcoin may be Friday’s NFP report which is likely to influence Fed cut bets.

Traders are currently pricing in a 74% probability of a 25-basis point Fed cut in December. Any changes to these bets may influence cryptocurrencies which have shown sensitivity to US interest rates.

Looking at the charts, Bitcoin is firmly bullish – boasting a year-to-date gain of over 140%.

A strong weekly close above $100,000 may signal further upside.
However, should prices slip below this key level – bears may target $95,000.

bitc

2) OPEC+ kicks can down the road…

Oil prices initially slipped on Thursday after OPEC+ decided to delay oil production hikes by three months. However, losses were clawed back as investors perused the details of the new output plan.

The cartel has decided to unwind output cuts at a slower pace over an 18-month period starting from April 2025.

Nevertheless, OPEC+ is in a tricky position with production hikes down the road leading to potentially lower prices.

Even if they opt to delay production beyond April, this could spark internal disputes while raising the risk of a price war.

In addition, Trump’s return to the White House adds another element of uncertainty for the cartel ranging from tighter sanctions on OPEC members to tariffs impacting China’s demand.

The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for May 28, 2025 according to a statement from OPEC.

Looking at the technical picture, Brent remains in a range on the weekly charts with support at $70.00 and resistance at $76.00. A breakout could be on the horizon.

brent

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Dec

GBP/USD Continues its Rally: Third Day of Buying

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair has risen to 1.2711, marking the third day of sustained buyer activity. This upward movement comes from comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who hinted at potential interest rate cuts in 2025 if the consumer price index (CPI) continues its downward trajectory.

In a recent interview, Governor Bailey discussed the possibility of a decisive easing in monetary policy, suggesting a total reduction of 100 basis points in 2025, which could bring the interest rate down to as low as 3.75% per annum. While this outlook is seen as positive, investors are currently more focused on the short term, with expectations set for the BoE’s rate to remain unchanged in December 2024. Any substantial rate adjustments are anticipated to be implemented next year.

Governor Bailey also noted that UK inflation is declining more rapidly than anticipated, with current consumer prices nearly 1% below previous forecasts. This contrasts with official statistics, which recorded a CPI rise from 1.7% in September to 2.3% in October, suggesting that inflation pressures are not fully alleviated yet.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

H4 chart: the GBP/USD is currently on an upward trend, targeting 1.2767. Once this level is reached, a retracement to 1.2628 is expected, testing it from above before potentially initiating another growth phase towards 1.2815, with prospects of extending to 1.2960. The MACD indicator supports this bullish scenario, with its signal line positioned above zero and trending upwards.

H1 chart: the pair has found support at 1.2628 and is building a growth structure towards 1.2767. Once achieving this level, a corrective phase to 1.2628 may ensue. This analysis is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, which shows the signal line moving upwards from above 50 towards 80, indicating continued upward momentum in the near term.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Dec

Australian dollar declines amid weak GDP data. Short-term martial law was imposed in South Korea

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.17% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.05%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.31%. Data released on Tuesday showed a modest increase in US job openings for October, while layoffs declined, indicating workers’ confidence in the labor market. US October JOLTS job openings rose 372,000 to 7.744 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 7.519 million. Traders are now focused on Wednesday’s ADP private sector jobs report and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls data to gain further insight into labor market trends. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak in New York on Wednesday afternoon. Markets are currently pricing in a roughly 75% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in December.

Equity markets in Europe rallied on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.42%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.26%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.18%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.56%. France’s political crisis is intensifying. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party is expected to join forces with a left-wing coalition in a no-confidence vote on Wednesday to topple Prime Minister Barnier’s administration. Swaps discount the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the Dec. 12 meeting to 100% and a 50bp rate cut at the same meeting to 14%.

WTI crude oil prices held near $70 per barrel on Wednesday after rising 2.7% in the previous session, helped by signals that OPEC+ will further delay production recovery, as well as new US sanctions on Iranian oil. The producer group is reportedly close to an agreement to delay the plan to increase production for another three months, with a final decision expected at Thursday’s meeting, easing market fears of oversupply. Meanwhile, the US has imposed sanctions on 35 companies and ships it believes are involved in the transportation of Iranian crude.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.29%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.00%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.56%. On Wednesday, Chinese stocks failed to build on recent gains as caution prevailed in the region following political turmoil in South Korea. Adding further uncertainty was the fact that China’s Politburo opted not to release a report on its regular November meeting, which sparked speculation that additional stimulus measures may be forthcoming.

The Bank of Korea announced today that it will temporarily take measures to boost short-term liquidity in response to market volatility caused by the country’s brief declaration of martial law. The Central Bank said in a statement that it has begun purchasing additional repurchase agreements from more financial institutions to boost market liquidity. The move is in line with Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok’s earlier pledge to provide unlimited liquidity support if needed following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s surprise declaration of martial law on Tuesday night.

The Australian dollar fell below $0.645 on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level in four months, as weak GDP data reinforced expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The data showed Australia’s economy grew just 0.3% in the three months through September in quarterly terms, missing market expectations of 0.4%. On an annualized basis, the economy grew by 0.8%, well below the projected 1.1%, a growth rate typically seen during recessions. Despite the disappointing data, the RBA is expected to leave rates unchanged at its December meeting, citing persistent inflation.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,049.88 +2.73 (+0.05%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,705.53 −76.47 (−0.17%)

DAX (DE40) 20,016.75 +83.13 (+0.42%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,359.41 +46.52 (+0.56%)

USD Index 106.32 −0.05 (−0.04%)

News feed for: 2024.12.04

Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
Australia GDP (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 11:00 (GMT+2);
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
US Factory Orders (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 17:30 (GMT+2);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 20:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

04 Dec

Australian Dollar Hits Four-Month Low Amid Weak GDP Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Australian dollar fell to a four-month low of 0.6450 against the US dollar on Wednesday, following disappointing GDP data that heightened expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The latest GDP figures revealed that Australia’s economy expanded by only 0.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q3, falling short of the anticipated 0.4% growth. Year-on-year, the growth rate was just 0.8%, significantly below the expected 1.0%. These figures have raised concerns on trading floors about the possible onset of a recession.

Despite the weak GDP report, expectations for the RBA’s upcoming December meeting remain unchanged. The consensus is that the central bank will hold rates steady while continuing to assess economic conditions. However, market sentiment regarding the medium-term monetary policy has shifted slightly, with a 30% likelihood of an RBA rate cut by February. Investors are increasingly betting on the possibility of adjustments by May.

Externally, the Australian dollar is facing additional pressure from a stronger US dollar, which continues to attract investors seeking safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

H4 chart: the AUD/USD pair has reached the target of its recent decline at 0.6490 and is now forming a growth structure towards 0.6480. A broad consolidation range may develop around this level. If the price breaks above this range, a rise to 0.6555 is anticipated. This bullish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero but poised for an upward movement.

H1 chart: the market has nearly reached the primary target of the decline at 0.6490 and is expected to initiate a growth structure to 0.6485. A narrow consolidation range may form, and a breakout above this range could lead to an ascent towards 0.6555, followed by a potential retracement to 0.6480. Once this level is reached, another upward wave towards 0.6700 may be possible. The Stochastic oscillator supports this analysis, with its signal line currently below 20 but expected to climb sharply towards 80, indicating potential for upward momentum.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Dec

EURUSD gripped by French political turmoil

By ForexTime

EURUSD ↓ 1% MTD, lingering near key 1.05 level

French government faces no-confidence vote today

Mounting political uncertainty could hit euro

Over past year NFP triggered moves of ↑ 0.4% & ↓ 0.6%

Bloomberg FX model – EURUSD has 73% of trading within 1.0349 – 1.0641 over 1-week period

The French government is on the brink of collapse.

In July when France’s legislative election ended with a hung parliament outcome, we suggested months of political instability.

Although France unveiled a new government in September after almost 3-months of deadlock, it looks like things are back at square one.

The low down…

Earlier in the week, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier failed to secure an agreement with Marine Le Pen’s party on the budget.

This deadlock prompted opposition parties to table a motion of no-confidence against Barnier.

What next?

Today at 4 p.m. Paris time, a debate on a motion to topple the government is scheduled to take place with voting roughly three hours after.

If the current government is ousted with a no-confidence vote, this could throw France into political chaos until July 2025 when a new legislative election can take place.

More pain for EURUSD?

The EURUSD may sink due to political uncertainty, with prices keeping below the psychological 1.050 level.

Looking beyond the developments in France, the major currency pair could be influenced by Powell’s incoming speech and the US jobs report on Friday.

Note: Over the past 12 months, the US jobs report has triggered upside moves as much as 0.4% or declines of 0.6% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Investors will be seeking for any fresh clues on the Fed’s plans for December and beyond. Powell’s comments and Friday’s NFP could influence the USD and by default the EURUSD.

However, the political developments in France and ECB cut bets may set the tone for the EURUSD this week.

Note: Traders have fully priced in a 25-basis point ECB cut by December with another cut priced in by January 2025.

Looking at the technicals

The EURUSD is under pressure on the daily charts with prices trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near oversold levels.

Sustained below 1.0500 could see a decline back toward 1.042 and 1.0349 – the lower bound seen on the Bloomberg FX model.

Should prices push back above 1.0500, this could see an incline toward 1.0600 and 1.0641.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

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Archive for Financial News – Page 95

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Lean Hogs

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Coffee

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COTTON Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

COCOA Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

WHEAT Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

News feed for: 2024.12.06

Central bank decisions could spark fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead.

1) RBA meeting: AU200

Traders are pricing in a 58% probability of a 25 bp RBA cut by February 2025 with a move fully priced in by April 2025.

2) BoC meeting: USDCAD

Traders are currently pricing in an 85% probability of a 50-basis point BoC cut in December.

3) ECB meeting: EU50

Traders have fully priced in a 25 bps move by December with another rate cut expected by January 2025.

4) SNB meeting: USDCHF

Traders are pricing in a 45% probability of a 50-bps cut by December.

News feed for: 2024.12.05

Bitcoin surpasses the $100,000 milestone while oil turns choppy following the OPEC+ decision.

1) Bitcoin’s $100k dream becomes reality

Crypto advocate Paul Atkins is set to replace Chair Gary Gensler, boosting hopes for more relaxed regulations in the crypto space.

Traders are currently pricing in a 74% probability of a 25-basis point Fed cut in December. Any changes to these bets may influence cryptocurrencies which have shown sensitivity to US interest rates.

2) OPEC+ kicks can down the road…

The cartel has decided to unwind output cuts at a slower pace over an 18-month period starting from April 2025.

The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for May 28, 2025 according to a statement from OPEC.

News feed for: 2024.12.04

The French government is on the brink of collapse.

The low down…

What next?

If the current government is ousted with a no-confidence vote, this could throw France into political chaos until July 2025 when a new legislative election can take place.

More pain for EURUSD?

However, the political developments in France and ECB cut bets may set the tone for the EURUSD this week.

Looking at the technicals