Archive for Financial News – Page 93

16 Nov

Speculator Extremes: Lean Hogs, Ultra T-Bonds, US Dollar & 5-Year lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 12th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs


The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score or maximum of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 50.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 75,982 net contracts this week with a gain of 4,541 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds


The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is now at a 99.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 10.1 this week. The speculator position registered -241,284 net contracts this week with a weekly rise by 23,124 contracts in speculator bets.

Australian Dollar


The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Australian Dollar speculator level resides at a 97.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 10.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 29,795 net contracts this week with a small dip of -1,181 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Oil


The Soybean Oil speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 94.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 25.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 97,225 net contracts this week with a boost of 20,687 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel


The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 93.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.0 this week.

The speculator position was -808 net contracts this week with a decline of -394 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond


The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,869,210 net contracts this week with a drop by -101,801 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index


The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.2 this week. The speculator position was -2,312 net contracts this week with a decrease by -2,407 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond


The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 4.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,423,871 net contracts this week with an increase of 62,488 contracts in the speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar


The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 6.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -50.4 this week. The speculator position was -182,389 net contracts this week with a weekly shortfall of -7,160 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

E-mini SP MidCap400

Finally, the E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator level is at a 10.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.7 this week. The speculator position was -228 net contracts this week with a change of 575 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News
15 Nov

The Dollar Index strengthened on Powell’s comments. The Bank of Mexico cut the rate to 10.25%

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.47% on Thursday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.60%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.66%.

On Thursday, Fed Chairman Powell clarified that there was no need for an immediate rate cut, citing the economy’s strength, a robust labor market, and stable inflation. Powell’s comments echoed his colleagues, who favor a cautious approach to future rate cuts. As a consequence, markets have lost confidence in a December rate cut and now have a 58% chance of it happening, down from 80% before the speech. In addition, investors believe that the incoming Trump administration may push for higher trade tariffs, tax cuts, and higher budget deficits, which could lead to higher inflation and further limit the Fed’s ability to reduce borrowing costs.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is up more than 6%, topping the Dow Jones Industrials list, after reporting fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.14, above the consensus of $1.10, and saying it expects high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth in fiscal 2025, above the consensus of 4%. Cisco Systems (CSCO) closed down more than 1% after estimating FY 2025 revenue of $55.3–56.3 billion, below the average consensus estimate of $55.88 billion.

The Bank of Mexico lowered its benchmark interest rate to 10.25% in November 2024, which was widely expected and in line with trends in major economies. The Central Bank eased monetary policy, noting improving trends in core inflation but remaining cautious due to risks of stagnant core inflation and potential currency depreciation. Overall inflation rose from 4.66% y/y in mid-September to 4.76% y/y in October due to a supply shock affecting non-core inflation, while core inflation eased to 3.8% y/y.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.37%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.32% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.29%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.51%. The report on the ECB’s October 16–17 meeting was seen as dovish as policymakers believe inflation continues to fall. There was broad agreement that incoming data from the September meeting had increased confidence in the ongoing disinflation process and that inflation would converge toward the medium-term target.

WTI crude oil prices fell to as low as $68 a barrel on Friday, driven by concerns that the global oil market may be moving into a state of oversupply. On Thursday, the IEA predicted an oil surplus next year, attributing it to slowing demand growth in China and rising global production. The agency also noted that the surplus could become even more pronounced if OPEC+ follows through on plans to restore previously halted production. Additional pressure on commodities such as oil is being exerted by the strengthening dollar, which has risen to a two-year high, making dollar-priced commodities less attractive. In addition, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels last week, exceeding the expected increase of 1.9 million.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) fell below $2.9/MMBtu following the release of the EIA report on gas in storage. The data showed that US utilities added 42 billion cubic feet of natural gas to storage last week, slightly below the expected 43 Bcf. Gas in storage is now 6.1% above the seasonal norm. This is the fourth consecutive week of exceeding the seasonal norm, last seen in October 2022.

Silver prices stabilized near $30.30 an ounce on Friday but were still on track for a fourth straight weekly decline as a strengthening US dollar continued to weigh on the precious metal. The dollar’s rise was driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut following comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday. Powell said the central bank was in no hurry to cut rates, citing a strong economy, stable labor market, and steady inflation.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday with Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) down 0.48%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.99%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.96%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) positive 0.31%.

China’s retail sales rose to 4.8% y/y from 3.2% in September and hit the highest growth since February, helped by the week-long holiday and the latest shopping festival. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to a four-month low of 5.0%, according to the survey, and industrial production continued to rise, albeit at a slightly slower pace. The statistics agency also noted that confidence in the real estate market strengthened on the back of appropriate policies, leading to an increase in the number of transactions in the market and a move towards stabilization.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,949.17 −36.21 (−0.60%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,750.86 −207.33 (−0.47%)

DAX (DE40) 19,263.70 +260.59 (+1.37%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,071.19 +40.86 (+0.51%)

USD Index 106.87 +0.39 (+0.36%)

News feed for: 2024.11.15

  • Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
15 Nov

EURUSD Faces Decline as Fed Signals Firm Stance

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EURUSD plunged to a six-month low of 1.0543 on Friday amid strong support for the US dollar following the US presidential election and recent comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent statement underscored a cautious approach to cutting interest rates, citing persistent GDP growth, robust employment, and ongoing inflationary pressures. This stance suggests a possible delay or reduction in the anticipated rate cuts, contrasting with earlier market expectations favouring a rate reduction in December.

As Powell indicated a less accommodative monetary policy moving forward, the probability of a December rate cut has notably decreased, bolstering the US dollar’s appeal.

Technical analysis of EURUSD

H4 chart analysis: the EURUSD price has reached the 1.0500 level, forming what appears to be the latter half of a downward trend. Today, we expect consolidation range formation above this level. If the price breaks upwards, a corrective wave towards 1.0600 could occur. Subsequently, we expect the continuation of the downward impulse to the 1.0404 level. This bearish EURUSD outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which remains below zero and is directed downwards.

H1 chart analysis: EURUSD is making a downward move towards 1.0404. After achieving this target, a corrective upward movement towards 1.0600 is possible, suggesting a temporary pause in the bearish trend. The Stochastic oscillator supporting this scenario is close to 80 and signals an imminent fall to 20, in line with the expected continuation of the downward movement.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
15 Nov

Week Ahead: Will Nvidia earnings seal stock’s 200% jump in 2024?

By ForexTime

  • Nvidia: world’s largest company with US$3.6 trillion market cap
  • Shares already soared 196.3% so far this year
  • Earnings due after US markets close Wed, Nov 20
  • Shares forecasted to move 8% up/down Thur, Nov. 21
  • Nvidia accounts for 15% of total global stock volatility

 

The world’s most-valuable company is about to unveil its latest quarterly earnings.

And when Nvidia speaks, stock markets worldwide listen, and react.

After all, Nvidia alone accounts for about 15% of the total volatility for stock markets worldwide.

 

Here are some other facts you may not know about this AI-posterchild:

  • Nvidia became the largest company in the world since November 5th – US election day.
    (it previously held that title for just 1 day, on June 18, 2024, when it briefly surpassed Apple’s market cap).
  • Nvidia is valued (market cap) at US$3.6 trillion at the time of writing (before US markets open on Friday, Nov. 15th).
  • Nvidia has almost tripled (+196.35%) so far in 2024, making it the:
    – best-performing stock on the Nasdaq 100
    – 3rd biggest year-to-date gainer on the S&P 500 (after Vistra Corp’s +260% and Palantir’s +245%).

 

 

Why has Nvidia’s stocks skyrocketed?

Answer = AI-mania.

Nvidia’s GPUs are sorely needed by many tech companies around the world to fuel their respective AI ambitions.

Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon combined are expected to spend US$200 billion this year alone on capital expenditures, including AI spending.

UBS Wealth Management predicts that AI-spending by Big Tech companies could even reach US$266 billion in 2025!

All that has translated into massive revenue and profits for Nvidia, which could grow even more in the years ahead.

 

 

Nvidia earnings due Wednesday, Nov. 20th

With all of that in mind, no surprise that traders and investors around the world are bracing for this high-impact event in the middle of a relatively light week on the global macroeconomic calendar:

Monday, November 18

  • SG20: Singapore October external trade
  • THB: Thailand 3Q GDP
  • USDInd: Speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

Tuesday, November 19

  • AUD: RBA policy minutes
  • EU50 index: Eurozone October CPI (final)
  • CAD: Canada October CPI

Wednesday, November 20

  • JP225 index: Japan October trade balance
  • CNH: China loan prime rates
  • GBP: UK October CPI, PPI
  • ZAR: South Africa September retail sales; October CPI
  • TWN index: Taiwan October exports
  • Nvidia earnings

Thursday, November 21

  • NOK: Norway 3Q GDP
  • EUR: Eurozone November consumer confidence
  • ZAR: South African Reserve Bank rate decision
  • Baidu earnings
  • US30 index: US weekly initial jobless claims; speeches by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

Friday, November 22

  • JPY: Japan October national CPI; November PMIs
  • AU200 index: Australia November PMIs
  • GER40 index: Germany/Eurozone November PMIs
  • UK100 index: UK November PMIs and consumer confidence; October retail sales
  • TWN index: Taiwan October jobless rate
  • CAD: Canada September retail sales
  • RUS2000 index: US November PMIs, consumer sentiment (final)
  • MXN: Mexico 3Q GDP

 

 

Nvidia earnings: What to look out for

Here are Wall Street’s forecasts for some of Nvidia’s crucial Q3 financial figures:

  • Revenue: US$ 33.2 billion
  • Data Center revenue: US$ 29.1 billion
  • Gross profit margins: 75.5%
  • Net profits: US$ 18.54 billion
  • Earnings per share (EPS): $0.74

 

More importantly, given the forward-looking nature of financial markets (today’s prices reflect tomorrow’s hopes) …

Traders and investors are set to pay more attention to Nvidia’s guidance for future earnings.

 

For context, Nvidia’s Hopper GPUs have been a reliable engine for past and present earnings.

Nvidia’s revenues for the current 2025 fiscal year is expected to reach $125.6 billion – double from the previous fiscal year.

 

However, Nvidia’s much-hyped Blackwell GPU family, despite a slight hiccup, appears to have overcome its recent delays.

That’s set to drive another 44% year-on-year climb for Nvidia’s revenue, reaching $181 billion for its 2026 fiscal year.

In short, markets are desperate to find out whether all is well with Blackwell (pun intended).

 

Blackwell Timeline:

  • Q4 2024: Blackwell GPUs to start shipping out
  • 2025: Blackwell production set to increase
  • Q1 2026: Blackwell GPUs forecasted to reach max output levels

 

How might Nvidia’s stocks react?

When US markets reopen on Thursday, November 21st, Nvidia’s shares are forecasted to move 8%, either up or down.

Of course, whether this stock climbs or falls will depend on Nvidia’s past and future earnings.

Nvidia’s stock prices could soar to a new record high if CEO Jensen Huang can further stoke market excitement with more details about its Blackwell ramp up in the years ahead.

Can Nvidia shares post new record high after Nov. 20th earnings announcement?

 

Potential Scenarios

Using prices at the time of writing (before US markets open on Friday, November 15th) …

  • an 8% upside could see Nvidia’s share price touching $158 next week for the first time in its history!
  • an 8% drop could see this stock faltering back into the mid-$130 region.

Given Nvidia’s already stunning surge so far this year, the bar has been set high for already hard-to-impress investors.

Recall that investors were left disappointed with Nvidia’s previous quarterly earnings announcement, resulting in a 6.4% drop on August 29th – the day after its last earnings release

If that sentiment is felt once more, that could translate into broader declines for US stock markets as well (watch the US500 and NAS100 stock indexes in particular).

 

For the longer term, Nvidia’s stocks are predicted to climb another 7.3% from current prices to eventually touch $157.73 over the next 12 months.

Of course, the above forecast is based on Bloomberg’s survey of Wall Street analysts prior to the upcoming earnings.

Should the AI-mania get another shot in the arm following Nvidia’s earnings, that $157.73 target price may be breached even by this Thursday.

And that would force Wall Street experts to scurry about making upward revisions to their 12-month target prices yet again, as they have done for much of the past couple of years.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
14 Nov

Gold Falls for the Fifth Consecutive Trading Session

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

On Thursday, the price of a troy ounce of Gold is lower, approaching 2,560.00 USD.

The current value of Gold is at an eight-week low, influenced by the strong US dollar. The market analyses the latest inflation statistics released in the US and draws rather ambitious conclusions.

The inflation statistics came out within expectations. The only thing that might have hurt investors’ attention was the three-month inflation numbers, which rose on a year-on-year basis. Even so, the CPI data increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December. The odds of a rate cut are around 80%, up from less than 60% a couple of days ago.

Since last Friday’s sell-off, the gold price has fallen by 4%. The stock exchange opinion is as follows: since Donald Trump will become the new US President, the Fed will be forced to stop the easing cycle sooner or later. This is due to the protectionist policies that Trump and his administration usually pursue, which can stoke inflation.

A strong US dollar will visibly weigh on the value of Gold and force the precious metal to retreat.

Technical analysis of XAUUSD

On the H4 chart of XAUUSD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the level of 2,608.00 and, with a downside exit, continues the development of the second half of the third wave of the trend to the level of 2511.65. After working off this level, we will consider the probability of the beginning of the correction wave to the level of 2,608.00 (test from below). After the correction is completed, we expect a new wave of decline to 2,430.00. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is under the zero level and is directed downwards.

On the H1 chart of XAUUSD, the market broke through the level of 2,590.00 downwards and reached 2,560.00. We expect the development of a compact consolidation range around this level. A correction link to 2,577.00 is possible in case of an upward exit. Conversely, in case of a downward exit, we will consider the continuation of the wave to the local target of 2,511.65. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is under 50 and is directed downwards to 20.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
13 Nov

Profit-taking is observed on stock indices. The data on wages in Australia haven’t met expectations

By JustMarkets

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.29%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.29%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.17%. Higher bond yields on Tuesday contributed to some profit-taking in equities after five consecutive sessions of gains. In addition, the liquidation of long positions in equities ahead of Wednesday’s release of the US consumer price report had a negative impact on the overall market.

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) closed higher by more than 2% after Redburn initiated a “buy” recommendation with a $178 price target. Airbnb (ABNB) shares closed down more than 2% after Phillip Securities downgraded the stock to a downgrade from neutral with a $120 price target.

Today, the US will release its monthly consumer inflation report. Economists expect annualized core inflation, which excludes food and fuel costs, to remain at 3.3%. Overall inflation is estimated at 2.5% y/y, up from 2.4% y/y last month. The October CPI may not have a strong impact on the market, as the US Fed will have both October and November inflation reports in hand before the December meeting, and the decision will be based more on the latest report. Also, the Trump factor should not be ruled out, as many believe that his proposals, in particular tariff hikes, may lead to higher consumer prices. Therefore, if the inflation data remains stable or shows a slight increase, it will be more positive for the US dollar as it will increase the probability that the US Fed may pause in December. If, however, the inflation data is better than expected and shows a reduction in inflationary pressures, this will hurt the US dollar but will be positive for indices and precious metals.

Equity markets in Europe decreased yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 2.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 2.69%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.85%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 1.22%. Expectations for German economic growth in the November ZEW survey unexpectedly fell by 3.7 to 7.4 versus expectations of an increase to 13.2. ECB Governing Council spokesman Rehn said yesterday that disinflation in the Eurozone is “well underway” and “this strengthens the case for an ECB rate cut in December.” Swaps discount the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the December 12 meeting at 100% and a 50bp rate cut at the same meeting at 23%.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $68 a barrel on Wednesday, rebounding slightly from two-week lows, helped by a short-term supply shortage in the physical market. Investors also continued to assess OPEC’s latest downwardly revised demand growth estimates for 2024 and 2025, driven in part by China’s slowing economy. While OPEC’s estimates remain higher than those of other agencies, the lower demand outlook and China’s weakness continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.40%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 1.06%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 2.84% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.13%.

Australian wage growth slowed to a near two-year low of 3.5% in the third quarter, missing estimates of 3.6%. On a more positive note, consumer confidence rose to a two-and-a-half-year high in November, driven by easing fears of interest rate hikes. Currently, markets do not expect a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shortly, with the first possible rate cut expected in mid-2025.

The New Zealand dollar traded near its lowest level since early August as the US dollar strengthened further on speculation that Treasury yields will rise due to President-elect Trump’s pro-tariff policies, which could lead to higher inflation. Additional pressure on the kiwi came from China’s recent stimulus measures, which failed to meet investor expectations and dampened demand prospects from New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Domestically, markets are expecting another 50 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) later this month, with the possibility of a further 75 basis point cut being considered.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,983.99 −17.36 (−0.29%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,910.98 −382.15 (−0.86%)

DAX (DE40) 19,033.64 −414.96 (−2.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,025.77 −99.42 (−1.22%)

USD Index 105.94 +0.39 (+0.37%)

News feed for: 2024.11.13

  • US FOMC Member Harker Speaks at 00:00 (GMT+2);
  • US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 00:30 (GMT+2);
  • Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • US FOMC Member Logan Speaks at 16:45 (GMT+2);
  • US FOMC Member Musalem Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+2);
  • US FOMC Member Schmid Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
13 Nov

USD/JPY at a Three-Month Peak: No One Opposes the US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The USD/JPY currency pair has climbed to a three-month high of 154.87, driven by the strengthening US dollar following Donald Trump’s election victory. Markets anticipate that Trump’s protectionist policies, which are expected to bolster the US economy, might also fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates than previously anticipated.

In Japan, producer prices rose at their fastest pace in 14 months in October, signalling persistent inflation pressures. Attention is shifting towards Japan’s GDP data for Q3 2024, set to be released on Friday, which will provide further insight into the economic trends affecting the yen.

The Bank of Japan is under scrutiny as it contemplates an interest rate increase to 1% per annum during the first half of fiscal 2025. However, Japanese monetary authorities remain cautious, considering the external economic factors and the challenges posed by persistent inflation.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market continues developing the third wave of growth to the level of 156.15. After reaching this level, we will consider the probability of the start of correction to the level of 154.15. Further, we expect the beginning of a new wave of growth to the level of 157.00. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above the zero level and is directed upwards.

On the H1 USD/JPY chart, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 154.15 level and continues developing the wave to 156.15 with an upward exit. After reaching this level, we expect a correction towards 154.15, initially targeting 155.20. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above the level of 50 and is directed upwards.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
13 Nov

Can Chinese Tech earnings offer relief for Chinese stock indexes?

By ForexTime 

  • CHINAH, CN50, HK50 falling on fears of heightened US-China trade tensions
  • US president-elect Trump reportedly set to appoint China “hawks” to cabinet
  • CHINAH, CN50, HK50 testing key moving averages as immediate support
  • Relief to arrive from this week’s earnings by Tencent, JD.com, NetEase, Geely, and Alibaba?
  • Markets still predict double-digit % gains for CHINAH and HK50 over next 12 months, for now

Chinese stock indexes are still reeling from the fallout from the just-concluded US presidential elections.

At the time of writing, here’s how major Chinese stock indices within FXTM’s universe have fared since Asian markets closed on November 5th – US elections day:

 

  • CN50: -2.75%

At the time of writing, the CN50 is now testing its 21-day simple moving average for immediate support.

CN50 falling after US elections
FXTM’s CN50 stock index tracks the FTSE China A50 Index.

  • HK50: down 5.6%

At the time of writing, the HK50 is now testing its 50-day simple moving average for immediate support.

HK50 index falling since US presidential elections

FXTM’s HK50 stock index tracks the Hang Seng Index.

  • CHINAH: down 5.8%

At the time of writing, the CHINAH is headed towards its 50-day simple moving average, potentially for immediate support, which also currently lies around the psychologically-important 7,000 number.

CHINAH falling since US presidential elections

FXTM’s CHINAH stock index tracks the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index.

Besides Chinese stock indices, even China’s currency, the Yuan (CNH) has also fallen almost 2% since November 5th.

 

 

Why are Chinese assets falling?

Chinese markets have been falling on fears of heightened US-China trade tensions under Trump 2.0.

The US president-elect has campaigned on threats of imposing 60% tariffs on Chinese products imported into the United States.

Such tariffs, if rolled out, are expected to put further downward pressure on the Chinese economy that’s already struggling to sustain its post-pandemic recovery.

 

 

Timeline: Chinese stock indexes post-US election reaction

Here’s a quick recap of key events that have sent the CHINAH, CN50, and HK50 indexes on a topsy-turvy ride over the past week:

  • Tuesday, Nov. 5: US election day
  • Wednesday, Nov. 6: Knee-jerk declines for Chinese markets as US election results pointed to a resounding win for Trump.
  • Thursday, Nov. 7: Chinese stocks rose on hopes of more economic support from Beijing
  • Friday, Nov. 8: Beijing disappointed markets with less-than-expected fiscal stimulus
  • Tuesday, Nov. 12: Markets react to overnight reports of president-elect Trump could appoint Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz to his cabinet – both are known to have aggressive stances against China.

 

 

Can Chinese stock indices see some relief soon?

In the days ahead, big Chinese tech companies are due to report their respective quarterly earnings, all before US markets open:

 

  • Wednesday, Nov. 13: Tencent

Tencent’s stocks are expected to move by 4.2% either up or down after this earnings release.

Though Tencent’s video game segment should offset weakness in its fintech and advertising businesses, this stock is unlikely to be immune from the potentially darkening clouds over the Chinese economy.

 

  • Thursday, Nov. 14: JD.com, NetEase, Geely

These 3 stocks have a combined market cap of about US$132 billion. All are members of the CHINAH stock index.

When US markets open on November 14th, after their respective results, these stocks are forecasted to move anywhere between 5% – 9%, either up or down.

From e-commerce, to automotives, and even gaming, their respective results are likely to serve as a barometer of the health of the world’s second largest economy.

 

  • Friday, Nov. 15: Alibaba

Alibaba’s stocks, listed in Hong Kong and the US, are expected to move by 5.3% either up or down after this earnings release.

Though it’s hoped that government measures to boost this past Singles Day sales (on Nov. 11th) could help Alibaba’s fortunes, this e-commerce giant is still expected to post lacklustre Q3 figures amid slowing consumption.

 

 

Potential scenarios for CN50, HK50, and CHINAH:

  • If the upcoming financial results can punch past the gloom, that could help these indexes stay above their respective critical support levels (21-day / 50-day SMAs), at least temporarily.

    Bulls will also be hoping that the November 11th Singles Day sales can give these companies a boost to start off the week, helping the indices rise in tandem.

  • However, if these big Chinese tech companies post lacklustre financial results, while also citing growing headwinds for Chinese consumers that erode their respective earnings outlooks, that could spell further declines for Chinese stock indices.
    ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

 

What’s the longer-term outlook for CHINAH and HK50?

As things stand, markets still expected double-digit % gains for these Chinese stock indices over the next 12 months:

  • CHINAH: +22.4% over next 12 months
  • HK50: +23% over next 12 months
SOURCE: Bloomberg; data unavailable for FTSE China A50 Index (CN50 index)

However, with key details yet to be determined about what, when, and how Trump 2.0’s upcoming policies could impact China …

The forecasted double-digit, 12-month potential profits for Chinese stock indices may well be drastically reduced, especially if the market’s worst fears are realized under the incoming Trump administration.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
12 Nov

Bitcoin hits an all-time high above $88,000. Oil remains under pressure

By JustMarkets

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.69%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.10%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down 0.05%. Stocks traded mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials setting new all-time highs. The broad market continued last week’s post-election gains on speculation that President-elect Trump will boost corporate profits by cutting taxes and reducing regulation. Additionally, Tesla’s stock is up more than 8%, which is complementing last week’s 26% gain on speculation that the company will benefit from a Trump presidency. Additionally, digital-assets-related stocks soared on speculation that digital assets will benefit from the Trump administration’s pro-digital-assets policies.

Bitcoin remained above the $88,000 mark on Tuesday, holding steady after rising more than 10% to new all-time highs in the previous session. The rally was driven by expectations of a digital-assets-friendly US government under Donald Trump and a Republican-led Congress. Trump, an ardent supporter of digital assets, has promised to make the US the “planet’s capital of digital assets” and create national Bitcoin reserves, further bolstering investor optimism. Meanwhile, Onramp Bitcoin co-founder Jesse Myers noted on Air X that the post-halving supply shock could be the main catalyst for this rally.

Minneapolis Fed chief Kashkari said a strong US economy and rising productivity could force policymakers to cut interest rates less than expected in the coming months. Swaps discount the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the December 12 meeting at 100% and a 50bp rate cut at the same meeting at 18%.

The Mexican peso (MXN) fell to 20.5 per US dollar in November, the lowest since July 2022, as the threat of protectionist policies from Mexico’s main trading partner, the US, weighed on the outlook for Mexican exports and foreign exchange inflows. Speculation that former Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, known for his protectionist stance, could be reappointed by President-elect Donald Trump has heightened fears of tighter trade policies toward Mexico.

Equity markets in Europe rallied yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.21%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.20% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.40%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.65%. Investors are closely watching the possible effects of Donald Trump’s policies on Europe and political developments in Germany, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s willingness to postpone a vote of confidence, which could lead to early elections before Christmas.

ECB Governing Council member Stournaras said yesterday, “Now that inflation is coming down, we’ve started to lower interest rates, which looks like we’re going to continue lower and could end up close to 2% around next September.”

WTI crude oil prices fell below $68 a barrel on Tuesday, extending losses after a two-day slump, as a bearish demand outlook continues to weigh on the market. China’s recent stimulus efforts have proven insufficient to intervene directly and weak inflation persists, adding to demand concerns from the world’s largest oil importer. In addition, the rise in the US dollar, driven by the re-election of President Trump, has put further pressure on oil prices.

Asian markets were predominantly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.08%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.57%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.45% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.35%.

The offshore yuan slid to 7.24 per dollar, hitting a three-month low, pressured by a strong US dollar as Trump’s “Trump deals” continued to boost financial markets. The yuan’s decline was exacerbated by weak Chinese economic data and an insufficient stimulus package. On Monday, Chinese banks issued only 500 billion yuan in new loans for October, down sharply from September’s figures and well below market expectations. The Australian dollar is often seen as a liquid proxy for the Chinese yuan, and its fall reflects lingering concerns about China’s economic outlook.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,001.35 +5.81 (+0.10%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,293.13 +304.14 (+0.69%)

DAX (DE40) 19,448.60 +233.12 (+1.21%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,125.19 +52.80 (+0.65%)

USD Index 105.50 +0.50 (+0.48%)

News feed for: 2024.11.12

  • Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 17:15 (GMT+2);
  • US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
12 Nov

Brent Crude Stumbles as Market Sentiments Turn Cautious

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

Brent crude oil prices have continued to slip, touching 71.74 USD a barrel on Tuesday. This marks a downturn influenced by China’s underwhelming stimulus measures. The market’s lack of confidence in China’s rejuvenation efforts, coupled with persistently weak inflation and subdued energy demand within the country, has led to this downturn.

Compounding the downward pressure on oil prices, the US dollar’s strength makes commodity investments less attractive, as a robust USD typically dampens demand for dollar-priced assets like oil. However, the geopolitical landscape, which often serves as a driver for oil price volatility, appears stable for now. With reduced tensions in the Middle East, some risk premiums previously embedded in Brent prices have been alleviated.

Investors eagerly anticipate the monthly OPEC report expected later today, which is set to provide deeper insights into the supply-demand dynamics. This report has the potential to influence market sentiments significantly and is a key focus for investors as they consider global oil demand forecasts for 2025.

Brent technical analysis

On the H4 chart of Brent, the market continues to develop a broad consolidation range around the level of 73.66, extending to the level of 71.33. Today, we expect a growth link to the level of 73.66. After reaching this level, developing another downside structure to 71.22 is possible. Further, we will consider the probability of the beginning of the growth wave development to 76.00, with the prospect of the trend’s continuation to 80.80, the local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is under the zero level and is directed downwards.

On the H1 Brent chart, the market has formed a consolidation range around 73.66 and worked out a downward wave to 71.33, the local target. Today, a correction link for this downward wave is likely with a target at 73.66, followed by another wave of decline to 71.22. At this point, the potential of the downward wave can be considered exhausted. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is under 50 and is directed strictly downwards to 20.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News
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