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Archive for Financial News – Page 79

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month with a gain of 42,737 contracts also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-233,685 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-172,588 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-114,073 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-58,709 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-21,846 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-21,236 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-12,185 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-4,169 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (86 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (77 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (75 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Fed Funds (10 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (21 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (10.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (53.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (21.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (23.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (19.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (40.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (42.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (75.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (83.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (77.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (97.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (85.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (87.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (60.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (49.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (16.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (22.8 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (36 percent) and the lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 1-Month (-17 percent), the US Treasury Bond (-15 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-12 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-9.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (33.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (7.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-0.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (8.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (36.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (32.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-14.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (14.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (5.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-17.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-16.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-8.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-0.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -240,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -233,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	69.2	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	56.7	1.4
– Net Position:	-240,075	220,897	19,178
– Gross Longs:	214,528	1,224,314	43,847
– Gross Shorts:	454,603	1,003,417	24,669
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.3	82.2	87.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	4.8	30.3

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -838,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -114,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -724,871 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	61.2	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	53.5	0.4
– Net Position:	-838,944	814,365	24,579
– Gross Longs:	1,367,058	6,463,732	66,088
– Gross Shorts:	2,206,002	5,649,367	41,509
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.9	81.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	7.7	9.3

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 42,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	54.6	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	50.3	2.0
– Net Position:	-33,587	54,688	-21,101
– Gross Longs:	311,799	699,458	4,676
– Gross Shorts:	345,386	644,770	25,777
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.2	45.0	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.0	22.1	-55.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,171,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,149,453 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	74.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	47.2	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,171,299	1,032,223	139,076
– Gross Longs:	553,273	2,841,528	240,539
– Gross Shorts:	1,724,572	1,809,305	101,463
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.5	75.7	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-0.2	-0.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,798,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -172,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,625,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	82.8	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	56.5	4.3
– Net Position:	-1,798,361	1,632,826	165,535
– Gross Longs:	447,699	5,131,809	430,704
– Gross Shorts:	2,246,060	3,498,983	265,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.8	85.4	82.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	-2.4	8.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -712,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -699,855 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	75.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	61.4	7.4
– Net Position:	-712,040	653,140	58,900
– Gross Longs:	637,490	3,542,653	408,077
– Gross Shorts:	1,349,530	2,889,513	349,177
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	58.7	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	10.8	12.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -74,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,957 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	73.6	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	68.3	12.3
– Net Position:	-74,193	118,891	-44,698
– Gross Longs:	339,134	1,641,606	228,663
– Gross Shorts:	413,327	1,522,715	273,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.1	9.1	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.3	-40.4	3.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -58,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	67.5	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	71.7	6.9
– Net Position:	-17,797	-82,656	100,453
– Gross Longs:	341,103	1,303,352	234,473
– Gross Shorts:	358,900	1,386,008	134,020
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.2	15.0	87.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	2.3	23.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -231,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -227,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	80.9	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	69.5	8.8
– Net Position:	-231,904	200,977	30,927
– Gross Longs:	143,596	1,425,013	185,058
– Gross Shorts:	375,500	1,224,036	154,131
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.8	5.7	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	-12.6	40.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

09 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as all eleven softs markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines for the softs markets was Corn (-105,723 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-29,827 contracts), Soybeans (-23,733 contracts), Wheat (-22,791 contracts), Lean Hogs (-21,162 contracts), Soybean Meal (-19,792 contracts), Cotton (-18,651 contracts), Live Cattle (-11,216 contracts), Sugar (-7,482 contracts), Cocoa (-1,800 contracts) and Coffee (-346 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (83 percent) and Corn (77 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (68 percent) and Lean Hogs (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent), Soybean Meal (4 percent), Wheat (10 percent) and Sugar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (76.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (90.0 percent)
Sugar (18.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (21.3 percent)
Coffee (82.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (83.2 percent)
Soybeans (39.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (44.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (65.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (4.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.6 percent)
Live Cattle (67.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (78.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (63.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (80.2 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (11.3 percent)
Cocoa (28.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (29.8 percent)
Wheat (9.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (27.9 percent)

Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (18 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only positive mover for soft commodities.

Live Cattle (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-20 percent), Lean Hogs (-18 percent) and Coffee (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-7.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.9 percent)
Sugar (18.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (6.2 percent)
Coffee (-15.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.0 percent)
Soybeans (-12.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-13.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (5.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (-11.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-2.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-27.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-21.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-18.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-6.7 percent)
Cotton (-13.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.7 percent)
Cocoa (-20.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-17.8 percent)
Wheat (-9.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (16.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 335,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -105,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 441,161 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	40.2	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	55.0	10.1
– Net Position:	335,438	-272,829	-62,609
– Gross Longs:	492,878	744,078	124,822
– Gross Shorts:	157,440	1,016,907	187,431
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	26.3	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	5.5	18.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,009 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	51.4	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	54.3	6.5
– Net Position:	26,009	-26,402	393
– Gross Longs:	191,009	464,615	59,086
– Gross Shorts:	165,000	491,017	58,693
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.9	83.5	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.4	-16.5	5.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 58,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	32.9	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	71.1	4.1
– Net Position:	58,837	-62,034	3,197
– Gross Longs:	73,038	53,470	9,875
– Gross Shorts:	14,201	115,504	6,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.9	17.8	70.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	15.7	-17.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -34,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,733 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,550 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	58.0	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	49.7	8.8
– Net Position:	-34,283	67,504	-33,221
– Gross Longs:	161,354	472,116	38,291
– Gross Shorts:	195,637	404,612	71,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	65.2	25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	13.1	0.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	55.8	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	59.5	4.7
– Net Position:	14,490	-20,749	6,259
– Gross Longs:	112,638	312,712	32,698
– Gross Shorts:	98,148	333,461	26,439
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.4	52.7	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	9.4	19.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	52.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	45.6	5.9
– Net Position:	-55,904	39,090	16,814
– Gross Longs:	100,013	292,120	49,575
– Gross Shorts:	155,917	253,030	32,761
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.5	93.2	31.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	11.5	-8.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 90,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,232 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.3	30.0	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	49.4	13.1
– Net Position:	90,016	-68,986	-21,030
– Gross Longs:	157,737	106,632	25,730
– Gross Shorts:	67,721	175,618	46,760
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	38.2	23.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.7	26.5	23.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	34.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	49.3	9.1
– Net Position:	46,665	-42,376	-4,289
– Gross Longs:	104,957	99,331	21,945
– Gross Shorts:	58,292	141,707	26,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.9	34.5	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	18.0	13.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -62,137 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	52.0	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	30.0	5.1
– Net Position:	-62,137	61,640	497
– Gross Longs:	70,011	145,796	14,670
– Gross Shorts:	132,148	84,156	14,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	13.4	-6.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	40.7	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	62.1	5.4
– Net Position:	17,651	-21,717	4,066
– Gross Longs:	29,410	41,221	9,501
– Gross Shorts:	11,759	62,938	5,435
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.0	71.7	51.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	23.1	-25.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -84,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,791 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,051 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	38.6	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.0	19.6	7.3
– Net Position:	-84,842	81,058	3,784
– Gross Longs:	116,367	165,082	35,060
– Gross Shorts:	201,209	84,024	31,276
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.8	85.9	77.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	9.8	-2.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

09 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (64,882 contracts) with the VIX (28,878 contracts), the Russell-Mini (16,757 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (2,021 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-4,011 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,914 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-780 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the S&P500-Mini (84 percent) and the Russell-Mini (79 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (75 percent) and MSCI EAFE-Mini (75 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

The VIX (60 percent) the comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is above the 3-year midpoint of 50 percent.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (59.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (33.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (83.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (72.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (62.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (58.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (72.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (79.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (78.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (67.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (74.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (81.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (75.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (77.9 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (28 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (19 percent), the Nikkei 225 (18 percent) and the Russell-Mini (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-2.0 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-11.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (-38.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (19.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-0.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-3.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (5.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (23.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-13.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (17.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (24.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -40,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly jump by 28,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,103 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	47.3	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	37.0	8.0
– Net Position:	-40,225	40,231	-6
– Gross Longs:	87,215	184,876	31,279
– Gross Shorts:	127,440	144,645	31,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	42.2	78.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	12.6	-10.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 64,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	68.0	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	75.7	7.0
– Net Position:	32,103	-167,315	135,212
– Gross Longs:	366,510	1,483,119	287,647
– Gross Shorts:	334,407	1,650,434	152,435
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.7	9.9	90.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-16.0	-0.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	59.3	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	62.6	16.5
– Net Position:	1,110	-2,519	1,409
– Gross Longs:	15,227	44,551	13,813
– Gross Shorts:	14,117	47,070	12,404
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.1	34.6	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	4.4	-10.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 21,766 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	53.9	15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	67.9	9.2
– Net Position:	21,766	-40,222	18,456
– Gross Longs:	82,749	155,447	44,972
– Gross Shorts:	60,983	195,669	26,516
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	10.3	89.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-3.8	0.6

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,331 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	73.3	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	74.1	5.2
– Net Position:	-4,574	-3,580	8,154
– Gross Longs:	66,840	326,541	31,232
– Gross Shorts:	71,414	330,121	23,078
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	21.7	47.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-3.8	-29.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -661 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	1.9	75.5	21.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.9	70.6	20.6
– Net Position:	-661	553	108
– Gross Longs:	215	8,400	2,402
– Gross Shorts:	876	7,847	2,294
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.5	30.3	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-15.0	1.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	85.6	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	84.3	1.4
– Net Position:	-11,821	5,592	6,229
– Gross Longs:	49,088	371,895	12,435
– Gross Shorts:	60,909	366,303	6,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.1	33.0	48.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.8	-26.8	14.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

07 Mar

The German DAX index has hit an all-time high. WTI crude oil prices show a multi-day losing streak

By JustMarkets

The US stocks fell on Thursday as trade uncertainty and changes to the Trump administration’s tariff policy fueled investor anxiety. The Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.99%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.78%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.79%, hitting its lowest level since last November.

The US government currently holds about 200,000 bitcoins worth about $18 billion. The order also says it will create a US digital asset reserve to store other confiscated crypto assets. However, the news did not enthuse investors as the US government will not buy bitcoin to replenish the reserve, meaning there is no new buying pressure on the market. White House Chief of Staff David Sachs announced the reserve will be funded solely by bitcoins seized in criminal and civil forfeiture cases.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) jumped 1.47%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.29% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.15%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.83% yesterday. The DAX index rose more than 1% to a new record high above 23,360 on Thursday, with most stocks rising as European leaders pledged to increase defense spending and support Ukraine, reacting to Donald Trump’s change in US policy. EU leaders welcomed proposals for greater budgetary flexibility in defense and a plan to jointly borrow up to 150 billion euros to finance military spending. The European Central Bank delivered an expected interest rate cut but took a more cautious stance on future rate changes, revising its near-term inflation forecasts upward.

WTI crude oil prices traded around $66 a barrel on Friday, starting the worst week since October and the longest weekly losing streak since December 2023. The potential impact of changes in global trade pressured prices. Although President Donald Trump eased some tariffs on Mexico and Canada before April 2, retaliatory tariffs on Canada remain, and China’s measures will take effect next week. The bearish sentiment is compounded by the fact that OPEC+ plans to restart production in April, which coincides with the prospect of a restart of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline and increased production from Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field, adding to fears of oversupply.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell 1.60%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.66%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose 0.59%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.26%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,738.52 −104.11 (−1.78%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,579.08 −427.51 (−0.99%)

DAX (DE40) 23,419.48 +338.45 (+1.47%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,682.84 −73.00 (−0.83%)

USD index 104.01 −0.05 (−0.05%)

News feed for: 2025.03.07

China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2);
Mexican Inflation Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).
US Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speaks at 19:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

07 Mar

EUR/USD holds firm as the US dollar ends the week with losses

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD is trading near 1.0806 on Friday, maintaining its position despite failing to extend its gains further. Investors are focused on the upcoming US employment data for February, which will be released later today.

Key factors influencing EUR/USD

The US dollar briefly found support after President Donald Trump temporarily excluded some Canadian and Mexican goods from the 25% tariffs imposed earlier this week. This move raised hopes for further trade concessions, easing concerns slightly.

However, despite this development, the USD is on track to close the first week of March with a loss of over 3%. The escalating trade war has increased fears of negative economic consequences for the US, particularly given the heavy reliance of US companies on free trade.

Meanwhile, the euro gained support from expectations of increased government spending in Germany and other European nations, particularly in defence investments.

The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its interest rate as expected, reducing it to 2.65% per annum. This move was widely anticipated and did not create market surprises.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD completed a growth wave to 1.0850 and is now forming a consolidation range around 1.0800. A downward breakout from this range is expected, potentially leading to a decline towards 1.0600. After reaching this level, a correction towards 1.0700 could follow. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but turning downward, indicating potential weakness.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD is consolidating around 1.0800. A move down to 1.0730 is expected, followed by a possible retest of 1.0800 from below before another decline towards 1.0600. If this trend continues, the next target could be 1.0400. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line above 80 and preparing to decline towards 20, indicating a potential bearish shift.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains elevated but faces increasing downside risks, particularly if US job data strengthens the dollar. While trade tensions and ECB policy support the euro, technical indicators suggest a potential decline towards 1.0600, with further downside possible. The US employment report will be a critical driver for the next major move in the pair.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Mar

European indices are growing amid the change of economic vector to defense. Inflationary pressures in Vietnam continue to ease.

By JustMarkets

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) was up 1.14%. The S&P500 Index (US500) was up 1.12%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped 1.36%. The White House confirmed that General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis received a one-month extension on tariffs related to the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, easing concerns about the impact on the economy. Investors viewed the move as a potential signal that the administration could negotiate further tariff waivers, which prompted a rebound in the broad market. Traders await Friday’s monthly jobs report after ADP data showed the US private sector added just 77,000 jobs in February, the smallest gain in seven months. Meanwhile, the dollar faced further pressure from a rising euro as Germany’s proposed €500 billion infrastructure fund and plans to overhaul borrowing rules boosted growth prospects in the Eurozone.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly rising on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) jumped 3.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.56% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.40%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.04%. Berlin announced a historic increase in defense and infrastructure spending. Friedrich Merz, Germany’s incoming Chancellor, confirmed that the main centrist parties will create a €500 billion infrastructure fund and amend the constitution to remove fiscal restraints on defense and security spending.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $67 a barrel on Thursday, likely a technical rebound after hitting multi-year lows in the previous session. Some relief came after a US official suggested that President Donald Trump may slap a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports in line with trade agreements. However, sentiment remained bearish due to concerns over the impact of the US tariffs and OPEC+’s decision to increase production. Tariffs and retaliatory measures could slow global growth and weaken oil demand. Meanwhile, EIA data showed that US crude inventories rose more than expected, adding to oversupply fears.

Asian markets rose steadily yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.07%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.26%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped 3.41%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.34%. China reacted sharply to the new US tariffs, declaring its willingness to wage “any type of war” with the US and dismissing the US fentanyl explanation for imposing the tariffs as a “flimsy excuse.”

The New Zealand dollar climbed as high as 0.573 US dollars on Thursday, hitting a one-week-high, amid improving risk sentiment after the US granted a temporary tariff reprieve to automakers. On Monday, President Donald Trump granted automakers a one-month reprieve from imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. The kiwi was further supported by fresh fiscal stimulus measures promised by China, which signaled increased efforts to boost consumption and protect economic growth amid ongoing trade tensions with the US.

Vietnam’s annual inflation rate fell to 2.91% in February 2025, a three-month low, down from 3.63% in January. The slowdown was driven by lower inflation in the service sector. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile items, slowed to 2.87% from 3.07% in January.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,842.63 +64.48 (+1.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,006.59 +485.60 (+1.14%)

DAX (DE40) 23,081.03 +754.22 (+3.38%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,755.84 −3.16 (−0.04%)

USD Index 104.15 −1.59 (−1.51%)

News feed for: 2025.03.06

Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+2);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2);
Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Mar

Natural gas prices jumped 8%. The head of the RBNZ unexpectedly announced his resignation

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was down 1.55%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.22%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 0.36%. The US stock futures rose on Wednesday after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said a potential tariff compromise between the United States, Canada, and Mexico could be in the works. The comments came after Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico went into effect on Tuesday, along with additional 10% duties on Chinese imports. The measures sparked retaliation from the affected countries, raising fears of an escalating global trade war that could hamper economic growth.

The Mexican peso fell to 20.8 per US dollar, hitting a three-year low, amid escalating trade tensions between the US and Mexico. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico will announce retaliatory measures this Sunday. She emphasized that Mexico has taken significant steps over the past month to crack down on drug cartels and fight the fentanyl trade, saying the US tariffs are unjustified.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly falling on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 3.54%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.85%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 2.55%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 1.27%. European defense stocks rose in the week after the US announced it was cutting off aid to Ukraine, reinforcing the need for Europe to invest in its armed forces. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled plans to mobilize €800 billion for defense, including €150 billion in loans and an easing of fiscal restraints.

WTI crude oil prices fell below $68 a barrel on Wednesday, remaining near a three-month low, as concerns over OPEC+ production increases pressured prices. The group confirmed plans to phase out production cuts of 2.2 million bpd starting in April, with monthly production increases of 138,000 bpd through the end of 2026. Further pressuring prices was the fact that the Trump administration suspended all US military aid to Ukraine following reports of a potential lifting of sanctions on Russia, which could lead to an increase in Russian oil exports.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) rose more than 8% to surpass $4.45 per mmbbls/ton, the highest since December 2022, thanks to record LNG exports and higher demand expectations. LNG exports have been on the rise in early March after hitting a record 15.6 Bcf/d in February, helped by new installations at Venture Global’s Plaquemines plant.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.19%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.60%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.36%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.93%. The Chinese market opened higher on Wednesday. Traders welcomed private survey data showing an unexpected rebound in service sector activity from January’s four-month low thanks to a rise in new orders and overseas sales, as well as stabilizing employment.

The Australian dollar dipped below 0.625 US dollar on Wednesday, reversing a two-day rally despite stronger-than-expected economic growth data. Australia’s economy grew by 0.6% in the fourth quarter, up from 0.3% in the previous quarter and beating market expectations of 0.5%. On the monetary policy front, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted that the Central Bank is closely monitoring the impact of the escalating global trade war on domestic inflation. He emphasized that it is too early to declare victory over inflation and called for a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr unexpectedly announced his resignation today, three years before the end of his second five-year term. Deputy Governor Christian Hawksbee will serve as acting Governor until March 31, when Orr officially steps down.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,778.15 −71.57 (−1.22%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,520.99 −670.25 (−1.55%)

DAX (DE40) 22,326.81 −820.21 (−3.54%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,759.00 −112.31 (−1.27%)

USD Index 105.55 −0.19 (−0.18%)

News feed for: 2025.03.05

Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
Australia GDP (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 16:30 (GMT+2);
US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 22:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Mar

Gold poised for a rally as support builds from multiple factors

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold is trading around 2,910 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, pausing after the previous day’s growth. The temporary slowdown comes as rising US Treasury bond yields exert pressure on prices.

Key drivers influencing gold prices

Despite this pause, gold remains near its record highs, supported by strong safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions. On Tuesday, the US implemented 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on China, worsening the global trade climate and triggering retaliatory measures.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that tariff reductions for Canada and Mexico may be possible in the future, which has slightly calmed market fears but has not eliminated concerns entirely.

Further bolstering gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset is the broader geopolitical landscape. The US suspended military aid to Ukraine, while reports emerged suggesting a potential easing of sanctions against Russia. These developments increase uncertainty in global markets, enhancing gold’s attractiveness.

In the near term, market participants are awaiting key US economic reports, including the ISM services PMI and employment data. These indicators will provide further clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. Recent data suggests growing economic strains, strengthening the argument for additional rate cuts, which would further support gold prices.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD has formed a growth wave to 2,900. Currently, the market is consolidating around this level. A breakout to the upside is expected, with a target of 2,974 as the next local resistance level. After reaching this target, a correction towards 2,900 could follow. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line positioned below zero but trending upwards, indicating strong bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, gold has already executed a growth wave to 2,900, forming a consolidation range at this level. If the price breaks downward, a correction to 2,880 is possible before another upward impulse begins. A bullish breakout from the consolidation range would open the potential for a direct rally towards 2,974. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, with its signal line above 50 and pointing towards 80, indicating a continuation of upward momentum.

Conclusion

Gold remains well-supported by trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. While a temporary pullback could occur, the broader trend suggests further upside towards 2,974. Market participants should watch upcoming US economic data releases for additional confirmation of gold’s next move.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

04 Mar

Tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican goods went into effect today. China is imposing retaliatory tariffs

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.48%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 1.76%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 2.20%. The US stocks continued to decline on Monday amid the release of pessimistic economic data, concerns over the imposition of tariffs, and geopolitical disagreements between Washington and Ukraine. The latest ISM report showed that US manufacturing growth in February was stronger than expected, driven by weaker demand, slower production, and higher prices due to tariffs, among other factors. Investors are now focused on Friday’s monthly jobs report for more labor market updates.

The Mexican peso fell to around 20.7 per US dollar, hitting its lowest level in a month, as trade war fears weighed on sentiment after US President Donald Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on goods from the country will take effect early Tuesday. In terms of economic news, Mexico’s manufacturing sector contracted for the eighth consecutive month, indicating continued weakness in industrial activity. Business confidence also fell in February, underscoring the gloomy economic outlook. Along with weak labor, inflation, and GDP numbers, the latest data has reinforced expectations that Banxico will further reduce borrowing costs.

The Canadian dollar slipped to 1.45 per US dollar, marking its eighth straight session of losses and hitting a one-month low, as rising trade war fears continued to dampen market sentiment. US President Donald Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on Canadian goods will take effect as planned, saying there is “no room left” to avoid tariffs.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.64%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.09% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) Index gained 0.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.70%. European leaders met over the weekend and showed consensus on increasing military spending to leverage a potential peace deal in Ukraine and respond to signs of reluctance to coordinate defense with the United States.

WTI crude oil prices fell to around $68 a barrel on Tuesday, near a three-month low, as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs against key trading partners took effect and OPEC+ signaled plans to resume suspended production. Beijing immediately retaliated by imposing additional tariffs of up to 15% on imports of key agricultural products from the US, which will take effect on March 10. That has heightened fears of a global trade war that could hurt economic growth and reduce energy demand. On Monday, OPEC+ said it would start rolling back production cuts of 2.2 million barrels a day from April 1, restoring supplies that have been capped since 2022, adding to downward pressure.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.83% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.34%.

On Tuesday, China imposed tariffs on US goods and other trade measures in response to US President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on all Chinese imports to 20% from 10%. China’s Ministry of Finance announced 15% tariffs on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, and 10% tariffs on soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, fruits, vegetables, seafood, and dairy products. These measures will take effect on March 10. The new tariffs coincide with the start of a key annual policy meeting in China this week. The country is expected to adopt new stimulus measures to help its economy withstand the impact of the increased tariffs.

The Australian dollar slipped as low as $0.62 on Tuesday, nearing a one-month low, after minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February meeting showed policymakers focused on downside risks to the economy, indicating a more dovish stance. The Central Bank also noted weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter inflation data and slowing wage growth. The currency’s fall was exacerbated after US President Donald Trump confirmed that tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China would take effect as planned. Given Australia’s heavy reliance on exports, any disruption to global trade is expected to have a significant impact on the economy.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,849.72 −104.78 (−1.76%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,191.24 −649.67 (−1.48%)

DAX (DE40) 23,147.02 +595.59 (+2.64%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,871.31 +61.57 (+0.70%)

USD Index 107.56 −0.32 (−0.30%)

News feed for: 2025.03.04

Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

03 Mar

Tariff threats and US foreign policy create uncertainty in financial markets

By JustMarkets

At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 1.39% (for the week +0.80%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.59% (for the week -1.20%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) is up 1.62% (for the week -3.62%). The latest data showed PCE prices rose by 0.3% month-over-month in January, matching expectations, while the annualized rate fell to 2.5% from 2.6% in December. The report also showed an unexpected 0.2% drop in consumer spending, the first decline in nearly two years, while incomes rose by 0.9%, the biggest increase in a year. Market attention has now turned to US trade policy.

In recent weeks, US tariff threats and doubts about whether its defense commitments will hold up have become the biggest concern for businesses, investors, and politicians. This means uncertainty, and lack of visibility is often associated with business caution when making investment decisions. The postponement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico supported the assumptions of those who believe that tariffs were a negotiating tactic and may have contributed to the complacency that until tariffs are in place, they are not worth believing in until they are seen. Nevertheless, in late February, when Trump reiterated his threat to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4, the Dollar Index posted its biggest gain in three weeks and ended February at two-week highs.

After the White House announced a digital assets’ summit this week, President Trump took to the social media platform Truth to explain some of the details, specifically mentioning a strategic reserve that would include XRP, SOL, and ADA. All three “altcoins” rose sharply against this backdrop, pushing the broad market higher over the weekend.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.002% (for the week +0.36%), France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed higher by 0.11% (for the week -0.33%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.58% (for the week +2.91%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.61% (for the week +1.74%).

German inflation was unchanged at 2.3% in February, but the core rate fell to a more than three-year low of 2.6%, while French inflation fell more than expected to a four-year low of 0.8%. Meanwhile, inflation in Italy and Spain accelerated to 1.7% and 3.0%, respectively, in line with expectations. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the fifth consecutive time on Thursday and signal further cuts amid slowing inflation and weak economic growth.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Britain, France, and Ukraine are working on a ceasefire plan to present to the United States. Starmer’s Sunday leaders’ summit contrasted with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s meeting at the White House on Friday. Zelensky won the support of European leaders after a contentious White House meeting Friday in which a rare earth metals deal was canceled and Trump told Zelensky to return when he was ready for peace. Starmer also promised to increase military spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027. A cut in US aid could force Europe to take more responsibility for Ukraine’s security.

WTI crude oil prices rose to around $70.1 a barrel on Monday, helped by strong data on manufacturing activity in China, the world’s largest oil importer, as well as ongoing tensions between the US and Ukraine that could lead to supply disruptions. Traders were also concerned about Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese goods, raising fears of weakening global demand.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 3.55%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.58%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 2.26%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.49%.

According to experts, if the US imposes 10% tariffs on goods from China, it will force the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to cut rates by 20-30 bps. At the same time, analysts believe that the PBoC will be forced to reduce the rate by 50 bps without tariffs due to weak economic growth. Thus, by the end of 2025, we may see a cumulative reduction in the PBoC rate by 70-100 bps. For Asian indices, this would be a fundamental message for growth.

The Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy for the yuan’s exchange rate, also benefited from stronger-than-expected Chinese PMI data, while investors awaited potential stimulus announcements from the National People’s Congress in Beijing this week. A private survey showed China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in February from 50.1 in January, beating expectations of 50.3 and hitting a three-month high. Domestically, attention turned to Australia’s upcoming fourth-quarter economic growth data due for release on Wednesday, with a moderate improvement expected.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,954.50 +92.93 (+1.59%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,840.91 +601.41 (+1.39%)

DAX (DE40) 22,551.43 +0.54 (+0.0024%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,809.74 +53.53 (+0.61%)

USD Index 107.56 +0.32 (+0.30%)

News feed for: 2025.03.03

Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
Indonesian Inflation Rate (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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