Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 76

The RBNZ expectedly cut the rate by 0.5%. Canada’s median inflation rate remains above the target of 2%

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was up 0.02%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.24%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.23%. Weakness in the consumer staples and communication services sector, highlighted by a 2.7% drop in Meta Platforms shares and a 0.9% decline in Amazon shares, pressured the broader market. However, energy stocks excelled, with Exxon Mobil up 1.8% and Energy Transfer up 1.6%. Market participants are keeping a close eye on policy decisions by the Fed and the White House, especially on tariffs and interest rates.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.42 per US dollar, halting its rebound from a 22-year low of 1.455 on January 31, as investors digested mixed inflation data. Annual inflation rose to 1.9% in January from 1.8%, staying at or below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target for the 6th consecutive month and supporting expectations of further easing. While higher gasoline prices led to the increase, tax incentives helped lower food costs. Nevertheless, key indicators such as median and truncated average rates remained at a high of 2.7%, above expectations.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.20%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.21% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.98%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.02%. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator for Germany for February 2025 rose 15.7 points to 26, exceeding market expectations of 20 and reaching its highest level since July 2024. It also marked the largest increase in investor confidence since January 2023, ahead of the federal elections, as optimism grew that the new German government would be able to act. Investors also kept an eye on peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and speculated on increased defense spending in Europe. The US and Russian diplomats agreed to set up negotiating teams, although an informal summit of European leaders in Paris ended without concrete action as a proposal to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine remains divisive.

WTI crude oil prices held near $72 a barrel on Tuesday as diplomatic talks between the US and Russia aimed at ending the war in Ukraine boosted hopes of reduced geopolitical risks. Hopes for an end to the war in Ukraine rose after talks between Russia and the US, but officials warned that one meeting would not ensure a lasting peace.

Asian markets were mostly down on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.25%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.10%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.59% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.66%.

The RBNZ cut the official money rate by 50bps to 3.75%, bringing the total amount of easing over the past six months to 175bps. The decision came amid signs of slowing inflation, with policymakers keen to revive the struggling economy. While the Central Bank indicated that further easing was possible, it signaled that future steps would be more modest and that the end of the easing cycle was approaching. Governor Adrian Orr hinted at a possible 25bp rate cut in April and May, which would bring the money rate closer to the neutral range from 3.0%.

The offshore yuan depreciated to 7.28 per dollar, marking the third straight session of losses, after US President Donald Trump announced new tariff plans. On Tuesday, Trump unveiled plans to impose 25% tariffs on automobiles, as well as similar duties on semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. Further influencing the sentiment was Donald Trump Jr, the president’s eldest son, noting that the US should be prepared to confront any potential military challenges from China while remaining open to diplomatic talks with its rival.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,129.58 +14.95 (+0.24%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,556.34 +10.26 (+0.02%)

DAX (DE40) 22,844.50 +46.41 (+0.20%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,766.73 −1.28 (−0.02%)

USD Index 107.03 +0.46 (+0.43%)

News feed for: 2025.02.19

Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
Australia Wage Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
New Zealand RNBZ Interest Rate Decision at 03:30 (GMT+2);
New Zealand RNBZ Monetary Policy Statement at 03:30 (GMT+2);
New Zealand RNBZ Press Conference at 04:00 (GMT+2);
UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

19 Feb

USDJPY eyes key support zones ahead of Japan CPI

By ForexTime

Yen best performing G10 currency YTD

USDJPY ↓ 2% MTD ahead of Japan CPI

Traders see 62% chance BoJ hikes by June

Japan CPI sparked moves of ↑ 0.3% & ↓ 0.4% over past year

Bloomberg FX model: 74% USDJPY – (149.77 – 153.63)

The Japanese yen is the best-performing G10 currency in the year to date.

It’s gained 3.6% against the dollar, with prices trading around 151.60 as of writing.

YTD

Appetite for the Yen has been boosted by tariff fears with positive Japan data and hawkish BoJ officials fuelling the currency’s upside gains.

Note: Japan published stronger-than-expected GDP figures on Monday. GDP Annualized rose 2.8% in Q4 compared to the 1.1% estimate.

The yen could experience more volatility due to the FOMC meeting minutes this evening and Japan CPI report on Friday.

Taking a quick look at the technicals, prices are under pressure on the weekly charts with weakness below the 21 & 50-week SMA.

USDJPY weekly

Considering how the Yen is expected to be the most volatile G10 currency versus the USD over the next one-week, this could provide fresh trading opportunities.

yen volll

Here are 3 things that may trigger big moves:

1) FOMC meeting minutes

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly stated that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates.

With consumer prices rising more than expected in January and Trump’s tariff drama fuelling inflation fears, the Fed is likely to adopt a cautious approach.

Traders are currently pricing in a 50% probability of a 25bp Fed cut by June with a cut only priced in by September.

If the minutes reflect this caution, the dollar could appreciate – boosting USDJPY.

However, any whiff of hawks could lend the dollar some support – weakening USDJPY.

Over the past 12 months, the Fed minutes have triggered upside moves of as much as 0.2% or declines of 0.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

2) Japan January CPI report

The consumer price index, which measures headline inflation could offer clues about when the BoJ will hike rates.

Annual inflation is expected to jump 4.0% from 3.6% in the previous month, while the core reading (excluding food and energy) is seen rising 2.5% to 2.4%.

Traders are currently pricing in a 62% probability of a 25bp BoJ hike by June with a hike fully priced in by September 2025.

If the incoming CPI report triggers major shifts to these bets, it could translate to yen volatility.

Over the past 12 months, the Japan CPI has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.3% or declines of 0.4% in a 6-hour window post-release.

3) Technical forces

Looking at the charts, the USDJPY is down over 2% month-to-date, trading around support at 151.60.

Sustained weakness below 151.60 could open a path toward 150.90 and 149.77 – the lower bound of Bloomberg’s FX model.

Should 151.60 prove reliable support, this may trigger a rebound toward the 200-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 153.63 – the upper bound of Bloomberg’s FX model.

usdjpy 23

Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 74% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 149.77 – 153.63 range over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

19 Feb

Gold to extend its rally as market conditions remain favourable

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold remains steady at 2,930 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, hovering near last week’s record high of 2,940 USD. Ongoing concerns over US trade tariffs and global uncertainties continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets.

Key factors driving Gold prices

Escalating US trade tensions– On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on automobiles, further escalating global trade disputes. Additional tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have also been proposed, intensifying market concerns. Last week, Trump suggested these auto tariffs could take effect by 2 April.
US foreign policy shifts– Reports indicate that the White House may be considering lifting sanctions on Russia as part of diplomatic negotiations, adding to global market uncertainty.
Federal Reserve’s cautious stance– San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated that inflation remains uneven, supporting the Fed’s view that interest rates should remain unchanged for now. This aligns with the Fed’s earlier signals of maintaining a tight monetary policy, which could keep long-term inflation risks alive, indirectly supporting Gold prices.
Increased bullion demand– Gold shipments from Singapore to the US surged to a three-year high in January, indicating potential disruptions in bullion trading due to price differentials. This signals strong demand and market inefficiencies, contributing to rising gold prices.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, Gold has formed a consolidation range around 2,911 USD, extending its gains to 2,939 USD. A short-term pullback to 2,911 USD (testing support from above) is possible before the next rally. If Gold breaks higher, the next target will be 2,960 USD. After reaching this level, a correction towards 2,844 USD could follow. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and sharply upwards, confirming strong bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, Gold is forming a growth wave towards 2,946 USD. After reaching this level, a minor correction to 2,911 USD could occur before a new bullish wave extends towards 2,960 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and trending towards 20, indicating a potential correction before the next leg higher. A subsequent rebound towards 80 would confirm further upside potential.

Conclusion

Gold maintains a firmly bullish outlook, supported by geopolitical risks, trade war concerns, and strong demand. While short-term corrections are likely, technical indicators support a continued rally towards 2,960 USD. Traders will closely monitor further developments in US trade policy and Fed monetary signals, as these will shape the next move in Gold prices.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

18 Feb

The RBA has cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. European countries will increase spending on the army

By JustMarkets

US stock indices did not trade yesterday due to the bank holiday.

The Mexican peso held steady at 20.3 per US dollar, showing resilience despite Banxico’s dovish stance, supported by a still high interest rate differential and the temporary postponement of US tariffs on Mexican goods. While the Bank of Mexico’s recent 50bp rate cut to 9.50% and its recommendations for further easing may narrow the policy gap with the Federal Reserve and put pressure on the peso, continued investor demand for high-yielding assets provided support.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.26%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.13% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.47%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.41%. European indices rose thanks to gains in defense sector stocks amid expectations of increased military spending by European governments. European leaders met in Paris to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine after the US signaled limited support and US-Russian talks on the conflict are due to begin this week in Saudi Arabia, although uncertainty remains over Ukraine’s involvement and Europe’s exclusion. Meanwhile, President Trump confirmed plans to impose tariffs on foreign cars from April 2, adding to trade tensions between Europe and the US.

Brent crude oil remained just below $75 a barrel on Monday as investors watched progress on a possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine that could ease sanctions and boost oil supply. US President Donald Trump has said he may soon meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the war, with the first talks between the US and Russia due to take place this week in Saudi Arabia. If the talks are successful, more Russian oil could flow to global markets, increasing supply. In addition, Iraq’s Kurdistan region said oil exports could resume next month.

Asian markets were mostly down on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.06%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was 0.02% cheaper, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.22%. On Chinese indices yesterday, traders were taking profits after a rally in the technology sector as they awaited further policy signals from Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting with private enterprises including Alibaba, Meituan, Xiaomi Corp, and BYD Co.

The Australian dollar fell below $0.635 on Tuesday, reversing previous gains after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%, in line with expectations. This is the first rate cut since November 2020, driven by easing inflationary pressures. The decision recognizes positive progress on inflation, but the council remains cautious about the prospects for further policy easing. The statement also signals the Central Bank’s intention to gradually remove any further monetary restrictions.

The New Zealand dollar slid to $0.571 on Tuesday, breaking a three-day winning streak and retreating from a two-month-high, as investors await the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy meeting. The RBNZ is expected to cut the official money rate by 50 bps on Wednesday, bringing it to 3.75% amid rising unemployment, lower economic growth, and inflation concerns. Traders will also pay attention to RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference after the rate decision, which could provide insight into the interest rate outlook. It is expected that the Central Bank may cut the benchmark rate by 25 bps at each of its next two meetings in April and May.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,114.63 0 (0%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,546.08 0 (0%)

DAX (DE40) 22,798.09 +284.67 (+1.26%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,768.01 +35.55 (+0.41%)

USD Index 106.75 +0.04 (+0.04%)

News feed for: 2025.02.18

Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2);
Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement at 05:30 (GMT+2);
Australia RBA Press Conference at 06:30 (GMT+2);
UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 11:30 (GMT+2);
German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

16 Feb

Japanese Yen Speculators continue to sharply boost their bullish positions

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (35,847 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (9,724 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (9,610 contracts), the British Pound (8,155 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,588 contracts), the Swiss Franc (3,513 contracts), the Brazilian Real (838 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (757 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-5,811 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,153 contracts) and with the New Zealand Dollar (-246 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculators continue to raise the bullish position

Japanese 10-Year Bond Yields

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week, the story continues to be the continued push higher in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators.

Large speculative yen positions surged higher by +35,847 contracts and rose for a fourth consecutive week this week. The JPY position has now jumped by a total of +84,026 contracts over just the past four weeks. These gains have boosted the overall net bullish position to a total of +54,615 contracts this week and marks the most bullish level for the yen bets since October 1st, a span of 20 weeks.

Helping out the yen speculative position is the recent rate hike by the Bank of Japan in January from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent. The yields on the Japanese 10-year bonds (image above) have also been spiking higher as well in recent weeks with the yields approaching 1.40 percent and reaching the highest levels in fifteen years (since 2010).

The yen exchange rate, despite the improving sentiment by the speculators and rising bond yields, remains near the bottom of its range from the past few years. The yen fell this week versus the US Dollar following four weeks of gains. The USDJPY currency pair trades near the 152.00 currently after hitting support right around the 151.00 early in the week. The pair did reverse lower after hitting resistance when challenging the 154.00 level in the middle of the week and ended at 152.82.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (95 percent) and the Brazilian Real (53 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the EuroFX (4 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (20 percent) and the Swiss Franc (22 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (38.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (36.8 percent)
EuroFX (4.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (34.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (31.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (95.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (81.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (20.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (29.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (6.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (36.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (35.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.3 percent)
Bitcoin (43.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (68.4 percent)

Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (25 percent) and the Brazilian Real (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (17 percent), the Canadian Dollar (11 percent) and the Australian Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the trends data.

The Swiss Franc (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-11 percent), Mexican Peso (-2 percent) and Bitcoin (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (17.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (16.7 percent)
EuroFX (2.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (25.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (6.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-12.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-28.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (11.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-5.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-1.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-3.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-2.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-3.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (25.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (19.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-1.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (20.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.8	21.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	63.3	6.2
– Net Position:	15,296	-16,423	1,127
– Gross Longs:	26,261	8,459	3,546
– Gross Shorts:	10,965	24,882	2,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	61.7	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-16.1	-2.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,811 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,614 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	56.6	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	50.2	8.3
– Net Position:	-64,425	39,974	24,451
– Gross Longs:	165,594	352,514	76,243
– Gross Shorts:	230,019	312,540	51,792
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.2	94.8	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-3.8	13.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	50.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	42.6	18.1
– Net Position:	-3,168	16,480	-13,312
– Gross Longs:	69,087	105,189	24,316
– Gross Shorts:	72,255	88,709	37,628
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.7	67.9	34.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	12.2	-14.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 54,615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 35,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.7	27.0	18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	52.0	13.3
– Net Position:	54,615	-68,154	13,539
– Gross Longs:	144,158	73,890	49,809
– Gross Shorts:	89,543	142,044	36,270
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.4	3.4	96.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.2	-28.6	35.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	84.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	29.3	25.3
– Net Position:	-38,745	53,757	-15,012
– Gross Longs:	5,553	82,536	9,859
– Gross Shorts:	44,298	28,779	24,871
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.4	87.1	15.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	9.2	1.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -150,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	84.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.6	34.5	11.3
– Net Position:	-150,834	162,597	-11,763
– Gross Longs:	17,911	275,360	25,075
– Gross Shorts:	168,745	112,763	36,838
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.4	83.1	9.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-10.9	4.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -65,585 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,724 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,309 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	63.2	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	27.3	16.2
– Net Position:	-65,585	70,444	-4,859
– Gross Longs:	40,368	123,991	26,941
– Gross Shorts:	105,953	53,547	31,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	71.9	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-4.8	5.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,090 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	82.1	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.5	23.2	7.1
– Net Position:	-49,336	51,398	-2,062
– Gross Longs:	11,218	71,567	4,103
– Gross Shorts:	60,554	20,169	6,165
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	93.5	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-0.1	14.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,262 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.3	54.1	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	63.3	4.0
– Net Position:	15,850	-13,270	-2,580
– Gross Longs:	59,388	77,683	3,229
– Gross Shorts:	43,538	90,953	5,809
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	67.4	8.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	2.4	0.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 838 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.5	31.0	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	33.0	3.4
– Net Position:	1,080	-1,437	357
– Gross Longs:	41,738	22,118	2,795
– Gross Shorts:	40,658	23,555	2,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	47.9	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.3	-25.7	4.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.3	5.6	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.5	4.6	4.2
– Net Position:	-367	307	60
– Gross Longs:	26,802	1,834	1,447
– Gross Shorts:	27,169	1,527	1,387
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	71.1	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	8.8	-22.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Feb

Speculator Extremes: Steel, US Treasuries & Yen lead weekly Bullish Bets

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 11th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Steel speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 21.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 2,855 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,618 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

US Treasury Bond

The US Treasury Bond speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The US Treasury Bond speculator level is now at a 98.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 27.5 this week. The speculator position registered 44,001 net contracts this week with a weekly jump by 48,928 contracts in speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Japanese Yen speculator level resides at a 95.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 25.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 54,615 net contracts this week with a surged by 35,847 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 90.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 9.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 113,424 net contracts this week with a dip of -3,015 contracts in the speculator bets.

Gold

The Gold speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Gold speculator level sits at a 88.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 14.1 this week.

The speculator position was 284,504 net contracts this week with a decline of -18,004 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 2.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -26,526 net contracts this week with an increase of 6,583 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Euro speculator level is at a 4.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 2.0 this week. The speculator position was -64,425 net contracts this week with a decrease of -5,811 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Cotton speculator level resides at a 5.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -42,565 net contracts this week with a rise of 8,202 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 6.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.2 this week. The speculator position was -49,336 net contracts this week with a small dip of -246 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 6.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.2 this week. The speculator position was -1,861,735 net contracts this week with an advance by 65,931 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

16 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Platinum, Copper & Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum, Copper & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (6,755 contracts) with Copper (5,475 contracts) and Steel (4,618 contracts) also showing higher weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-18,004 contracts), Silver (-651 contracts) and with Palladium (-450 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (100 percent) and Gold (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (79.0 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Copper (53 percent) and Palladium (54 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently but are above their 3-year midpoint (50 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (88.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (95.1 percent)
Silver (79.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.8 percent)
Copper (52.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (47.6 percent)
Platinum (76.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.8 percent)
Palladium (53.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.1 percent)
Steel (100.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (81.7 percent)

Platinum & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (47 percent) and Steel (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Palladium (15 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

There are no downside trend scores this week.

Move Statistics:
Gold (14.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (20.8 percent)
Silver (14.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (12.9 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.7 percent)
Platinum (47.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (7.9 percent)
Palladium (15.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.4 percent)
Steel (21.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (11.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 284,504 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 302,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.0	13.7	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	72.3	4.6
– Net Position:	284,504	-309,888	25,384
– Gross Longs:	343,766	72,622	49,509
– Gross Shorts:	59,262	382,510	24,125
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.3	10.7	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-13.9	4.9

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 49,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.2	19.8	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	61.3	8.7
– Net Position:	49,710	-68,250	18,540
– Gross Longs:	79,112	32,501	32,807
– Gross Shorts:	29,402	100,751	14,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.0	18.9	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.9	-17.5	19.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	30.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	41.0	5.7
– Net Position:	20,896	-24,842	3,946
– Gross Longs:	104,032	75,169	17,858
– Gross Shorts:	83,136	100,011	13,912
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	49.0	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-16.3	-7.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,755 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,975 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.1	16.3	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.0	50.9	6.8
– Net Position:	25,730	-28,593	2,863
– Gross Longs:	54,600	13,437	8,495
– Gross Shorts:	28,870	42,030	5,632
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.8	28.8	7.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.5	-32.9	-84.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.9	40.6	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.6	12.5	7.0
– Net Position:	-6,574	5,643	931
– Gross Longs:	7,014	8,163	2,340
– Gross Shorts:	13,588	2,520	1,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	3.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.8	44.2	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-15.7	4.8

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	58.7	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	68.3	0.5
– Net Position:	2,855	-3,034	179
– Gross Longs:	9,630	18,379	348
– Gross Shorts:	6,775	21,413	169
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.5	-22.2	19.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

16 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 5-Years, US Treasury Bonds & Ultra 10-Years

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Years, US Treasury Bonds & Ultra 10-Years

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (65,931 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (48,928 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (29,989 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (3,675 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-79,988 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-43,331 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-36,874 contracts), the Fed Funds (-15,621 contracts) and with the SOFR 3-Months (-5,059 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (99 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (83 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (79 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (7 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) and the Fed Funds (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (21 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (14.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (17.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (12.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (37.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (41.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (63.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (53.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (98.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (81.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (82.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (81.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (79.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (88.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (21.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (21.7 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (30 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (25 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-19 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-26.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-31.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-1.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (2.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-2.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-8.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-9.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-11.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (25.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (9.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (27.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (7.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (29.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (44.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-18.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-17.8 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -217,474 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -201,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	71.8	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	58.8	1.9
– Net Position:	-217,474	212,595	4,879
– Gross Longs:	192,884	1,175,918	36,375
– Gross Shorts:	410,358	963,323	31,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	80.7	94.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.5	24.9	12.9

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -751,909 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,059 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -746,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	63.2	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	56.0	0.4
– Net Position:	-751,909	741,677	10,232
– Gross Longs:	1,274,103	6,488,316	48,858
– Gross Shorts:	2,026,012	5,746,639	38,626
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.4	78.0	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	18.5	0.7

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -36,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	62.8	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	65.8	0.4
– Net Position:	43,587	-40,739	-2,848
– Gross Longs:	270,679	841,032	2,193
– Gross Shorts:	227,092	881,771	5,041
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.2	21.5	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.6	-29.0	-18.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,298,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -79,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,218,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	77.1	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	48.5	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,298,612	1,190,699	107,913
– Gross Longs:	554,284	3,205,872	237,223
– Gross Shorts:	1,852,896	2,015,173	129,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.8	88.4	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	4.4	-9.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,861,735 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 65,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,927,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	83.6	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	56.8	4.7
– Net Position:	-1,861,735	1,761,677	100,058
– Gross Longs:	430,766	5,492,122	411,431
– Gross Shorts:	2,292,501	3,730,445	311,373
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	93.6	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	3.7	-3.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -751,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -43,331 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -707,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	74.0	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	59.8	7.5
– Net Position:	-751,034	699,753	51,281
– Gross Longs:	726,203	3,652,408	420,463
– Gross Shorts:	1,477,237	2,952,655	369,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	64.4	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	15.4	-6.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -85,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	74.5	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	68.6	12.0
– Net Position:	-85,574	133,515	-47,941
– Gross Longs:	333,183	1,685,361	223,392
– Gross Shorts:	418,757	1,551,846	271,333
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.8	14.9	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.2	-23.4	-12.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 44,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 48,928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,927 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	64.4	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	70.3	6.8
– Net Position:	44,001	-119,542	75,541
– Gross Longs:	478,347	1,313,493	213,125
– Gross Shorts:	434,346	1,433,035	137,584
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.8	0.0	70.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.5	-30.3	14.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -239,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -243,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	80.8	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	68.8	8.6
– Net Position:	-239,941	214,843	25,098
– Gross Longs:	152,029	1,450,800	179,900
– Gross Shorts:	391,970	1,235,957	154,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.7	11.9	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	-14.0	43.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

16 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Wheat, Cotton & Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (11,414 contracts) with Cotton (8,202 contracts), Sugar (6,583 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,775 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,573 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-37,612 contracts), Soybeans (-30,385 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,276 contracts), Cocoa (-8,571 contracts), Coffee (-8,181 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,015 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle, Coffee & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (90 percent), Coffee (88 percent) and Corn (88 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (2 percent) and Cotton (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybean Meal (22 percent) and the Wheat (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (88.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (92.7 percent)
Sugar (2.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (87.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (95.5 percent)
Soybeans (48.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (21.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (27.1 percent)
Live Cattle (90.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (93.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.5 percent)
Cotton (5.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (37.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (46.1 percent)
Wheat (32.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.7 percent)

Soybean Oil & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (27 percent) and Soybeans (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (17 percent), Wheat (16 percent) and Live Cattle (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-10 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Lean Hogs (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (17.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (30.1 percent)
Sugar (-22.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-29.8 percent)
Coffee (0.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (7.5 percent)
Soybeans (18.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.9 percent)
Live Cattle (9.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.4 percent)
Cocoa (-9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.2 percent)
Wheat (16.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 424,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -37,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 462,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	39.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.0	56.0	10.4
– Net Position:	424,769	-338,472	-86,297
– Gross Longs:	586,274	796,993	124,448
– Gross Shorts:	161,505	1,135,465	210,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.0	17.6	2.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-14.2	-32.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -26,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,109 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	53.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	51.3	7.0
– Net Position:	-26,526	19,297	7,229
– Gross Longs:	231,941	538,044	78,087
– Gross Shorts:	258,467	518,747	70,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	95.8	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.9	18.6	3.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 63,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	37.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	71.9	3.5
– Net Position:	63,697	-67,169	3,472
– Gross Longs:	78,310	71,130	10,259
– Gross Shorts:	14,613	138,299	6,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.6	12.9	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-1.8	15.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,781 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -30,385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	55.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	53.2	8.2
– Net Position:	6,781	23,383	-30,164
– Gross Longs:	170,362	505,039	44,383
– Gross Shorts:	163,581	481,656	74,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	54.5	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-18.0	-10.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	55.4	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	67.0	4.5
– Net Position:	55,168	-65,153	9,985
– Gross Longs:	124,887	312,914	35,495
– Gross Shorts:	69,719	378,067	25,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.7	30.7	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.0	-28.6	32.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -13,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	50.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	51.0	5.7
– Net Position:	-13,967	-4,408	18,375
– Gross Longs:	102,087	294,109	51,912
– Gross Shorts:	116,054	298,517	33,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	76.0	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-2.5	-9.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 113,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	29.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	53.5	14.1
– Net Position:	113,424	-88,275	-25,149
– Gross Longs:	179,879	108,595	26,597
– Gross Shorts:	66,455	196,870	51,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	14.8	9.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.1	-9.5	-5.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.3	32.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	53.4	9.4
– Net Position:	73,220	-67,641	-5,579
– Gross Longs:	137,087	101,137	24,044
– Gross Shorts:	63,867	168,778	29,623
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.4	13.0	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	0.8	29.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	50.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	36.3	4.6
– Net Position:	-42,565	39,238	3,327
– Gross Longs:	68,832	143,745	16,498
– Gross Shorts:	111,397	104,507	13,171
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	93.8	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	2.9	20.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.8	40.0	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	67.3	4.1
– Net Position:	26,819	-33,051	6,232
– Gross Longs:	40,947	48,369	11,236
– Gross Shorts:	14,128	81,420	5,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.3	60.1	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	9.6	3.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	34.1	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	21.9	7.7
– Net Position:	-55,941	54,281	1,660
– Gross Longs:	132,148	152,709	35,998
– Gross Shorts:	188,089	98,428	34,338
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	64.4	65.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.3	-16.3	-1.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

16 Feb

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by MSCI EAFE & DowJones

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE-Mini (12,814 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (1,156 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-12,292 contracts), the VIX (-10,465 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-5,542 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-4,966 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-12 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (81 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (65 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (62 percent) and Nikkei 225 (61 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the VIX (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (42.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (52.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (62.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (64.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (65.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (63.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (60.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (68.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (59.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (63.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (61.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (61.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (80.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (64.2 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (34 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (17 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-21 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-25.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-28.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (5.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (8.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-6.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-16.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-12.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-20.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-17.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (16.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (3.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (33.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (20.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	50.6	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.4	35.6	7.0
– Net Position:	-58,995	53,878	5,117
– Gross Longs:	68,455	182,190	30,334
– Gross Shorts:	127,450	128,312	25,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.9	53.8	99.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.5	17.1	33.1

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -17,109 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,817 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	68.5	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	73.9	7.0
– Net Position:	-17,109	-113,610	130,719
– Gross Longs:	333,661	1,436,654	277,921
– Gross Shorts:	350,770	1,550,264	147,202
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.2	18.7	89.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-4.7	-3.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	61.0	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	70.0	13.0
– Net Position:	2,877	-7,270	4,393
– Gross Longs:	14,179	49,676	14,949
– Gross Shorts:	11,302	56,946	10,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.0	27.7	80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	5.9	-13.7

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,436 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,542 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,978 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	56.0	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	64.6	11.0
– Net Position:	13,436	-22,860	9,424
– Gross Longs:	73,511	147,448	38,295
– Gross Shorts:	60,075	170,308	28,871
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	29.0	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	22.4	-19.9

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,966 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	78.1	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	73.3	5.0
– Net Position:	-32,464	20,253	12,211
– Gross Longs:	41,084	324,238	32,835
– Gross Shorts:	73,548	303,985	20,624
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	36.4	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.7	24.0	-25.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	70.9	21.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	53.8	18.7
– Net Position:	-2,212	1,948	264
– Gross Longs:	923	8,080	2,400
– Gross Shorts:	3,135	6,132	2,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.3	40.1	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-7.5	-16.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,814 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	84.6	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	85.1	1.6
– Net Position:	-1,792	-2,262	4,054
– Gross Longs:	55,641	369,926	10,865
– Gross Shorts:	57,433	372,188	6,811
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	23.5	37.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.9	-34.9	14.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

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