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CN50 waits on key China data

CN50 rebounds over 10% from 2025 low
China GDP expected to slow to 5.2% in Q1
Index remains influenced by US-China trade war
Technical levels: 13,180, 13,000 and 12,600

European shares flashed green on Tuesday as investors welcomed Donald Trump’s hints of a potential pause in auto tariffs.

Some stability is returning to markets after the chaos witnessed last week, with Trump’s tariff exemptions on consumer electronics from China helping sentiment. However, caution lingers due to conflicting messages after Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated the exemptions as short-term.

Nevertheless, the two largest economies in the world remain in an aggressive tit-for-tat battle of rising tariffs. Any fresh escalation may spark another wave of risk aversion with equities in the firing line.

In Asia, FXTM’s CN50 index may see heightened volatility on Wednesday morning due to key China data.

Note: The CN50 tracks the benchmark FTSE China A50 Index

The CN50 index’s performance is very much tied to the overall health of the Chinese economy.

This is because stocks within the financial, consumer, and industrial sectors account for roughly two-thirds of the CN50’s weight.

Note: Back in February 2025, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods before raising it by another 10% in March – bringing the total to 20% in Q1.

China Q1 GDP – Wednesday 16th April – 02:00 AM GMT)

China’s economy may have lost speed in Q1 as the country headed into a sharp escalation in trade tensions with the United States.

Q1 GDP is expected to have cooled to 5.2% versus the 5.4% in the previous quarter.

Note: Over the past 12 months, the China GDP report has triggered upside moves on the CN50 of as much as 3.1% or declines of 0.9% in a 6-hour window post-release.

The incoming retail sales report and industrial production may provide fresh insight into the world’s second-largest economy.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

The CN50 has rebounded over 10% from its 2025 low with prices testing resistance at 13,000.

If the data comes in better than expected, this could boost the CN50 index higher. A solid breakout and daily above 13,000 may open a path toward the 100-day SMA at 13,180 and 13,500.
However, a set of disappointing data could drag the CN50 index lower. A move below the 200-day SMA at 12,810 may trigger a decline toward 12,600.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Apr

Gold Prices Remain Elevated Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Tariffs

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Tuesday, the price of gold climbed to 3,220 USD per troy ounce as market uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies continued to support demand for safe-haven assets.

Key factors driving gold’s movement

The precious metal’s stability is closely tied to lingering uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs. After temporarily exempting technology products from reciprocal duties, his administration is now considering similar exemptions for auto parts.

However, the White House heightened tensions on Monday by launching a national security probe into pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports – a move that could pave the way for additional tariffs.

Further supporting gold prices were comments from Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, who suggested that interest rates could be cut soon if Trump’s sweeping tariffs remain in place.

Markets are currently pricing in an 86-basis-point rate cut by the end of the year, though most investors expect the Fed to hold rates steady in May.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart Overview

The market saw an upward wave, peaking at 3,245, followed by a correction to 3,194
Today, consolidation is expected around 3,220. A downside breakout could trigger a further correction towards 3,175, after which a rebound towards 3,253 may follow
Conversely, an upside breakout may extend the rally to 3,253, the primary target of this growth wave
A subsequent decline towards 3,105 is anticipated
The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line at extreme highs and poised for a pullback towards zero

H1 Chart Overview

The market completed a third-wave advance to 3,245, with consolidation now likely beneath this level
A downside exit may initiate a correction towards 3,175, while an upside exit could extend gains to 3,253, where the uptrend may exhaust itself
Beyond this, a deeper corrective decline towards 3,105 is possible
The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, with its signal line above 80 and showing signs of an impending reversal

Conclusion

Gold remains buoyed by geopolitical and monetary policy uncertainty, with technical indicators suggesting near-term consolidation before potential further upside, followed by a corrective pullback.

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Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

14 Apr

Trump announces exemption of key tech goods from imposed tariffs

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 1.56% (for the week +6.16%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.81% (for the week +8.27%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped 1.89% (for the week +11.44%). The US stocks rose on Friday, ending a turbulent week on a high note, with hopes of a possible trade deal between the US and China lifting investor sentiment. Trump is optimistic about striking a deal with China even as trade tensions escalate, with Trump raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 145% and China retaliating by imposing 125% duties on imports from the US. On the economic front, a University of Michigan survey showed that consumer sentiment is at its lowest level since 2022, and inflation expectations have reached a peak not seen since 1981. Meanwhile, earnings season got off to a mixed start with mixed banking results. For example, Wells Fargo Bank shares fell 1%, while Morgan Stanley added 1.4% and JPMorgan rose by 4% after posting record earnings.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to $1.39 in April, hitting a five-month high, driven by a marked weakening of the US dollar as investors exited US assets amid growing fears of recession and high inflation. Escalating trade tensions between the US and China further undermined confidence in the outlook for the US economy. While the 90-day truce announced by President Trump briefly raised hopes of renewed trade talks, growing concerns about the US outlook led capital to return to Canada, helping to drive the Lonnie higher.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.92% (for the week +5.98%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.30% lower (for the week +3.60%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.18% (for the week +5.57%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.64% (for the week -1.13%). European stock markets reversed early gains and closed lower, ending a turbulent week dominated by escalating trade tensions between the US and China. The EU confirmed that it will not compromise on its digital regulatory framework as part of any potential trade agreement with the US. As for domestic data, Germany’s annual inflation rate for March 2025 was confirmed at 2.2%, down slightly from 2.3%, the lowest since last November. European stock markets are expecting a strong start to Monday after US President Donald Trump announced the exemption of key technology goods from recently imposed tariffs, boosting global investor sentiment.

Sweden’s annual inflation rate for March 2025 fell to 0.5%, confirming initial estimates, from 1.3% in February. This is the lowest since December 2020 and marks the eighth consecutive month inflation has remained below the Riksbank’s 2% target. Meanwhile, the fixed-rate Consumer Price Index, the Riksbank’s target variable, rose 2.3% in March, matching the preliminary reading and down from February’s annualized high of 2.9%.

Silver (XAG/USD) rose above $31.20 an ounce on Friday, posting gains for the third consecutive session, as a generally weaker US dollar and renewed economic concerns spurred demand for alternative assets. The metal also benefited from rising safe haven flows as the dollar lost some of its traditional safe haven appeal.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 2.4% to settle at $61.50 a barrel on Friday after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US could block Iranian oil exports as part of efforts to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program. Nevertheless, concerns over the US-China trade dispute continued to weigh on demand expectations. Meanwhile, OPEC+ surprised markets by accelerating plans to increase production, raising concerns about oversupply.

Asian markets were predominantly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 7.75% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 3.16%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.89%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 6.04%.

Exports from China rose 12.4% year-on-year to US$313.9 billion in March 2025, well above market expectations of 4.4% and sharply accelerating from a 2.3% increase in January-February. This is the fastest growth in overseas sales since last October, reflecting an expected increase in US tariffs under Trump that will take effect in April. In the first quarter of 2025, exports rose 5.8% from the same period in 2024 to US $853.7 billion.

The Australian dollar strengthened to around $0.63 on Monday, posting a fourth straight session of gains as US President Donald Trump exempted key technology goods from his new “retaliatory” tariffs, boosting risk sentiment globally. The exemption applies to goods that are largely made in China, including smartphones, computers, semiconductors, solar panels, and flat-panel displays. China’s Ministry of Commerce called the duty exemption a “small step” but urged the US to eliminate the broader 145% tax on Chinese goods. China remains Australia’s largest trading partner and a major buyer of its goods, so the Australian dollar is particularly sensitive to the developing trade relationship between the US and China.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,363.36 +95.31 (+1.81%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,212.71 +619.05 (+1.56%)

DAX (DE40) 20,374.10 −188.63 (−0.92%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,964.18 +50.93 (+0.64%)

USD Index 99.78 −1.08 (−1.07%)

News feed for: 2025.04.14

China Trade Balance (q/q) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

13 Apr

FX Speculators push Japanese Yen bullish bets to new record high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 8th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar & Swiss Franc

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (25,293 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (12,563 contracts), the Swiss Franc (12,487 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (10,775 contracts), the EuroFX (8,145 contracts), the Brazilian Real (8,080 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (5,896 contracts) and Bitcoin (841 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-17,316 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-11,998 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-4,128 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculators push bullish bets to new record high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued push higher in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators.

Large speculative yen positions surged higher by +25,293 contracts this week and have now advanced in ten out of the past twelve weeks. Over these past twelve weeks, the speculator position has gained by a total of +176,478 contracts and gone from a bearish position on January 14th (-29,411 contracts) to a new all-time high this week (+147,067 contracts). The new record high surpasses the most recent record reached on March 11th at a total of +133,902 contracts.

The yen exchange rate has been on the move higher as well with the JPY rising this week to the best level against the US Dollar since September of 2024. The USDJPY currency pair is currently trading around 143.50 and further USD weakness/JPY strength with set up a test of the major support level at 140.00.

Tariff turmoil boosts Swiss Franc & Euro, hits USD

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc has been the recipient of safe haven flows and saw speculators sharply boost their bets this week by +12,487 contracts. The overall franc position remains bearish and has been since 2021 – so there is a lot of room for speculator bets to turn around. The Swiss franc (CHF) exchange rate has been on a sharp upward move since the Tariff turmoil hit the markets. This week, the franc rose by over 5 percent and the currency is up over 10 percent in just the past 30 days. The franc closed at the highest level versus the USD since 2011 on Friday.

The Euro speculators raised their bullish bets this week for the seventh time out of the past eight weeks. This has added a total of +46,335 contracts to the Euro position in the past eight weeks. The overall bullish standing at the moment for the Euro is at approximately +60,000 contracts which is right down the middle of its 3-year range (strength score of 51 percent). The Euro exchange rate versus the USD has been moving higher and closed this week at its highest level since 2022 at over 1.1350. The Euro move has seen a gain by almost 10 percent in the past 30 days.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been on the opposite side of the Tariff turmoil and has been sold off strongly in the past couple of weeks. The DXY closed this week under the 100.00 for the first time since July of 2023 and has also closed firmly under its 200-week moving average. Speculators reduced their positions for the USD Index by -4,128 contracts this week and brought the overall bullish position down to +2,913 contracts, the lowest level since December.

Currency Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (95 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (80 percent) and the EuroFX (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (13 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (31 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (35 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (12.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (21.3 percent)
EuroFX (51.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (48.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (43.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (51.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (92.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (39.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (14.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (34.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (29.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (19.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (12.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (48.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (54.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (95.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (87.4 percent)
Bitcoin (80.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (62.0 percent)

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (41 percent) and the EuroFX (33 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (25 percent), the Swiss Franc (19 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (17 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-13 percent) following next with a lower trend score.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-26.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-20.2 percent)
EuroFX (32.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (39.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (15.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (18.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (8.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-12.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-13.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (5.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (18.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (40.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (34.3 percent)
Bitcoin (24.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (18.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,041 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.0	15.7	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.2	27.1	12.3
– Net Position:	2,913	-2,601	-312
– Gross Longs:	15,487	3,580	2,479
– Gross Shorts:	12,574	6,181	2,791
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.7	88.9	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.6	26.1	-6.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	57.6	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	70.5	7.2
– Net Position:	59,980	-90,416	30,436
– Gross Longs:	190,296	401,858	80,668
– Gross Shorts:	130,316	492,274	50,232
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	50.4	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.5	-30.6	9.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 17,310 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	33.8	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	42.7	14.5
– Net Position:	17,310	-15,795	-1,515
– Gross Longs:	91,733	59,719	24,131
– Gross Shorts:	74,423	75,514	25,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.9	55.1	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-8.7	19.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of 147,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 25,293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.0	31.1	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	81.5	7.8
– Net Position:	147,067	-161,669	14,602
– Gross Longs:	176,555	99,659	39,600
– Gross Shorts:	29,488	261,328	24,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	94.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-14.8	4.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -30,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	79.6	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.3	30.2	23.8
– Net Position:	-30,277	37,800	-7,523
– Gross Longs:	4,348	60,872	10,659
– Gross Shorts:	34,625	23,072	18,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	61.1	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-21.1	16.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -119,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,016 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	84.8	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.4	34.6	11.9
– Net Position:	-119,241	129,460	-10,219
– Gross Longs:	16,029	218,923	20,529
– Gross Shorts:	135,270	89,463	30,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	69.4	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-5.5	-15.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -63,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	65.6	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.2	29.5	16.6
– Net Position:	-63,300	70,205	-6,905
– Gross Longs:	28,493	127,546	25,334
– Gross Shorts:	91,793	57,341	32,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.4	71.8	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	10.7	-0.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -39,152 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,896 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,048 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	84.6	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.3	27.4	7.1
– Net Position:	-39,152	41,292	-2,140
– Gross Longs:	7,935	61,022	2,947
– Gross Shorts:	47,087	19,730	5,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.2	80.5	26.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-15.5	-10.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 39,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.4	41.2	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	65.4	4.0
– Net Position:	39,082	-36,259	-2,823
– Gross Longs:	80,167	61,831	3,195
– Gross Shorts:	41,085	98,090	6,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	55.6	7.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-5.2	-1.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 45,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,080 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,035 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.4	24.4	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	73.9	2.4
– Net Position:	45,115	-46,473	1,358
– Gross Longs:	67,079	22,960	3,599
– Gross Shorts:	21,964	69,433	2,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.1	5.3	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.7	-40.0	-1.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 841 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.2	2.2	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.2	5.5	5.3
– Net Position:	1,332	-897	-435
– Gross Longs:	22,388	591	985
– Gross Shorts:	21,056	1,488	1,420
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.4	41.1	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.6	-15.9	-29.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

13 Apr

Speculator Extremes: Yen, Ultra T-Bonds, 5-Year & WTI Crude lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 8th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Yen’s safe haven status has been in demand with the recent market turmoil. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a maximum 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend change for the percent strength score totaled a gain of 15.4 this week. The overall net speculator position rose to a new all-time record high at a total of 147,067 net contracts this week with a boost of 25,293 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week a the Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 97.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score rose by 10.5 points this week. The speculator position registered -200,310 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 53,719 contracts in speculator bets.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Nikkei 225 speculator level resides at a 96.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score increased by 35.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,904 net contracts this week with an increase by 2,025 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week as the Brazil Real speculator level is at a 95.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score jumped by 40.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 45,115 net contracts this week with an advance by 8,080 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Brent Oil speculator level sits at a 89.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 38.5 this week.

The speculator position was -6,838 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,995 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week a the 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score or the lowest of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -20.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,021,575 net contracts this week with a tiny rise by 102 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at just a 0.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.9 this week. The speculator position was 139,595 net contracts this week with a drop of -28,090 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 10-Year Note speculator level resides at a 6.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -35.8 this week while the overall speculator position was -1,078,470 net contracts this week with a decrease by -215,207 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the Wheat speculator level at 8.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.7 this week. The speculator position was -91,924 net contracts this week with a gain of 10,876 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

Finally, the Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 8.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.9 this week. The speculator position was -45,715 net contracts this week with a rise by 8,585 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

13 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Platinum & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower positioning.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-37,719 contracts), Platinum (-15,769 contracts), Silver (-10,742 contracts), Copper (-5,784 contracts), Palladium (-2,864 contracts) and with Steel (-318 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Platinum (14 percent) and Palladium (24 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (56.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (70.8 percent)
Silver (74.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (88.5 percent)
Copper (55.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (61.2 percent)
Platinum (14.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.4 percent)
Palladium (23.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (45.4 percent)
Steel (84.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.8 percent)

Copper tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-40 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Gold (-23 percent) and Palladium (-20 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-23.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-11.5 percent)
Silver (-8.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.5 percent)
Copper (4.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (7.4 percent)
Platinum (-40.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.2 percent)
Palladium (-19.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-16.8 percent)
Steel (-10.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-14.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 200,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -37,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 238,434 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.6	15.5	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	67.7	4.3
– Net Position:	200,715	-232,183	31,468
– Gross Longs:	269,833	69,214	50,486
– Gross Shorts:	69,118	301,397	19,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	38.7	84.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	20.1	18.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.3	22.9	20.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	64.4	8.7
– Net Position:	46,516	-64,022	17,506
– Gross Longs:	68,426	35,320	30,989
– Gross Shorts:	21,910	99,342	13,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.9	23.6	55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	6.8	0.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 24,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.8	32.2	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	41.9	8.7
– Net Position:	24,241	-21,429	-2,812
– Gross Longs:	81,213	70,988	16,422
– Gross Shorts:	56,972	92,417	19,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.8	52.0	0.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	1.0	-38.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,975 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.4	24.4	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.4	34.2	5.1
– Net Position:	-794	-8,011	8,805
– Gross Longs:	43,763	19,992	13,005
– Gross Shorts:	44,557	28,003	4,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.1	75.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.1	35.1	20.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	49.9	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.0	5.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-10,728	9,849	879
– Gross Longs:	7,832	11,163	2,479
– Gross Shorts:	18,560	1,314	1,600
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	8.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.9	72.4	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.5	24.7	-28.8

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,704 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	60.7	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	65.5	0.7
– Net Position:	1,704	-1,701	-3
– Gross Longs:	10,947	21,324	231
– Gross Shorts:	9,243	23,025	234
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.3	16.9	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	11.8	-37.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

13 Apr

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR-3M, Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months, Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (178,241 contracts) with the Fed Funds (68,611 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (53,719 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (28,282 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (14,494 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (102 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-215,207 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-46,367 contracts) and with the SOFR 1-Month (-35,300 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (98 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (77 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (6 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (19.9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (26 percent) and the Fed Funds (40 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (39.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (26.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (19.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (17.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (26.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (46.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (63.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (77.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (72.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (97.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (77.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (49.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (58.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (25.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (16.3 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (10 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-37 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-36 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (-21 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-21 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-13.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-1.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (-3.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-20.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-14.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (-35.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-14.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-36.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-5.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-20.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-28.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (10.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (0.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-22.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (2.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-5.7 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -81,232 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 68,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	66.4	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	63.1	1.6
– Net Position:	-81,232	73,959	7,273
– Gross Longs:	409,747	1,465,598	43,016
– Gross Shorts:	490,979	1,391,639	35,743
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.6	55.5	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	15.0	-10.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -673,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 178,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -851,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	60.5	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	54.2	0.3
– Net Position:	-673,042	667,863	5,179
– Gross Longs:	1,272,616	6,456,441	32,612
– Gross Shorts:	1,945,658	5,788,578	27,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.5	74.1	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-1.7	-9.4

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -75,627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -35,300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.8	64.3	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	58.6	0.2
– Net Position:	-75,627	77,506	-1,879
– Gross Longs:	295,104	871,651	1,010
– Gross Shorts:	370,731	794,145	2,889
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.9	50.6	80.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-2.0	19.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,198,109 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,226,391 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	76.3	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.9	49.7	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,198,109	1,070,287	127,822
– Gross Longs:	606,624	3,069,452	240,732
– Gross Shorts:	1,804,733	1,999,165	112,910
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.9	78.5	76.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	5.2	-4.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,021,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,021,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	84.2	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	56.4	3.2
– Net Position:	-2,021,575	1,805,555	216,020
– Gross Longs:	466,812	5,463,500	422,475
– Gross Shorts:	2,488,387	3,657,945	206,455
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	96.4	92.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.6	22.5	9.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,078,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -215,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -863,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	78.0	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	59.2	6.7
– Net Position:	-1,078,470	916,013	162,457
– Gross Longs:	452,496	3,813,010	489,903
– Gross Shorts:	1,530,966	2,896,997	327,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	90.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.8	32.9	31.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -152,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -46,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,983 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	74.0	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	67.1	10.7
– Net Position:	-152,350	161,266	-8,916
– Gross Longs:	357,035	1,741,444	244,020
– Gross Shorts:	509,385	1,580,178	252,936
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	25.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.6	25.7	24.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -18,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 14,494 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	71.7	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	76.0	7.2
– Net Position:	-18,154	-80,689	98,843
– Gross Longs:	266,449	1,321,385	230,900
– Gross Shorts:	284,603	1,402,074	132,057
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.1	15.5	85.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.5	15.5	4.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -200,310 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 53,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -254,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	81.0	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	72.3	7.5
– Net Position:	-200,310	159,486	40,824
– Gross Longs:	138,304	1,483,087	178,385
– Gross Shorts:	338,614	1,323,601	137,561
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.9	0.0	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.5	-24.5	46.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

13 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (36,626 contracts) with Wheat (10,876 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,585 contracts), Cotton (6,953 contracts) and Corn (6,013 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-15,926 contracts), Soybeans (-13,336 contracts), Lean Hogs (-12,418 contracts), Coffee (-10,584 contracts), Sugar (-8,246 contracts) and with Cocoa (-803 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (85 percent) and Coffee (68 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (68 percent) and Corn (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (8 percent), Soybean Meal (9 percent) and Cotton (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (57.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (56.4 percent)
Sugar (24.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (27.6 percent)
Coffee (68.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (78.3 percent)
Soybeans (45.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (48.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (68.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (48.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.1 percent)
Live Cattle (84.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (100.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (41.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (51.4 percent)
Cotton (16.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (12.3 percent)
Cocoa (28.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (28.9 percent)
Wheat (8.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Live Cattle & Cotton top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (6 percent) and Cotton (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (4 percent) and Soybean Oil (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-35 percent), Wheat (-23 percent) and Coffee (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-34.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (-39.3 percent)
Sugar (3.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.6 percent)
Coffee (-15.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-7.4 percent)
Soybeans (-1.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-27.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-3.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-13.4 percent)
Live Cattle (6.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (14.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-38.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-38.9 percent)
Cotton (5.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-3.0 percent)
Cocoa (-1.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-9.6 percent)
Wheat (-22.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-50.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 172,882 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 166,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	43.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	50.6	10.0
– Net Position:	172,882	-125,804	-47,078
– Gross Longs:	418,031	789,352	134,781
– Gross Shorts:	245,149	915,156	181,859
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.2	44.7	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.9	31.5	41.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,073 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	52.4	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	58.6	6.9
– Net Position:	44,827	-54,103	9,276
– Gross Longs:	196,237	457,838	69,937
– Gross Shorts:	151,410	511,941	60,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.9	76.0	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	-0.9	-10.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 43,479 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,063 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.2	41.4	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	67.4	3.8
– Net Position:	43,479	-45,041	1,562
– Gross Longs:	59,134	71,484	8,121
– Gross Shorts:	15,655	116,525	6,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	34.0	44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	16.0	-18.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	51.2	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	46.7	7.9
– Net Position:	-16,848	38,620	-21,772
– Gross Longs:	162,286	444,500	47,252
– Gross Shorts:	179,134	405,880	69,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	56.2	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	-1.9	35.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 48,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 36,626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.8	50.4	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	59.9	4.6
– Net Position:	48,710	-55,272	6,562
– Gross Longs:	125,853	291,213	33,176
– Gross Shorts:	77,143	346,485	26,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.1	35.6	39.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-1.1	-8.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -45,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,585 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,300 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	49.1	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	45.5	5.2
– Net Position:	-45,715	22,536	23,179
– Gross Longs:	117,689	306,004	55,308
– Gross Shorts:	163,404	283,468	32,129
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	86.6	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	0.8	33.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 107,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	29.5	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	53.9	14.4
– Net Position:	107,720	-87,154	-20,566
– Gross Longs:	167,089	105,590	30,987
– Gross Shorts:	59,369	192,744	51,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.7	16.1	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-7.6	-0.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	38.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	43.7	8.3
– Net Position:	18,059	-15,757	-2,302
– Gross Longs:	89,040	103,646	20,242
– Gross Shorts:	70,981	119,403	22,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	57.2	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.4	39.3	22.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -35,026 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,953 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	51.1	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.2	37.1	6.7
– Net Position:	-35,026	37,043	-2,017
– Gross Longs:	66,636	135,870	15,733
– Gross Shorts:	101,662	98,827	17,750
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	85.9	4.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-2.1	-30.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	41.2	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	64.1	6.2
– Net Position:	17,798	-21,878	4,080
– Gross Longs:	26,815	39,392	9,986
– Gross Shorts:	9,017	61,270	5,906
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.1	71.6	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	2.3	-6.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -91,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,800 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	35.6	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	17.1	7.8
– Net Position:	-91,924	87,969	3,955
– Gross Longs:	119,544	168,962	41,011
– Gross Shorts:	211,468	80,993	37,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.3	91.4	78.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.7	19.6	29.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

13 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Nasdaq, Russell & DowJones

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq, Russell & DowJones

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (9,086 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (4,426 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (3,924 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (1,117 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was with the S&P500-Mini (-9,665 contracts) and with the VIX (-3,615 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stocks Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nikkei 225 & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) and the VIX (82 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (78 percent) and Nasdaq-Mini (77 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

The DowJones-Mini (62 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is above 50 percent which is the mid-point for the past 3 years.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (82.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (85.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (72.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (74.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (62.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (56.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (76.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (62.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (73.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (70.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (77.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (76.0 percent)

VIX & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (49 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (35 percent) and the Russell-Mini (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-2 percent) is the only market with a lower trend score currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (49.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (42.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (0.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (3.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (3.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-2.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-2.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (8.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (5.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (8.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (2.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-2.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	44.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	40.9	9.1
– Net Position:	-13,973	13,134	839
– Gross Longs:	106,385	167,484	35,156
– Gross Shorts:	120,358	154,350	34,317
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.1	19.1	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.0	-46.8	-0.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	71.9	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	72.3	9.2
– Net Position:	-28,687	-9,951	38,638
– Gross Longs:	321,451	1,677,831	252,928
– Gross Shorts:	350,138	1,687,782	214,290
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.8	33.4	52.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	14.6	-40.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,320 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,924 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,604 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	65.8	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	65.2	14.8
– Net Position:	1,320	419	-1,739
– Gross Longs:	9,192	48,549	9,211
– Gross Shorts:	7,872	48,130	10,950
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	38.8	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	2.1	-21.8

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 24,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,086 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	56.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	68.4	11.4
– Net Position:	24,264	-30,431	6,167
– Gross Longs:	73,557	143,676	35,189
– Gross Shorts:	49,293	174,107	29,022
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.8	20.9	66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	12.8	-19.7

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,426 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	71.4	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	70.5	4.0
– Net Position:	-12,745	4,057	8,688
– Gross Longs:	85,645	323,667	26,618
– Gross Shorts:	98,390	319,610	17,930
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	26.4	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-2.8	-11.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	60.5	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.5	75.4	22.1
– Net Position:	1,904	-1,590	-314
– Gross Longs:	2,169	6,480	2,056
– Gross Shorts:	265	8,070	2,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	15.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.0	-26.7	-5.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,613 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	87.3	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	87.3	1.3
– Net Position:	-8,496	-168	8,664
– Gross Longs:	41,546	389,655	14,324
– Gross Shorts:	50,042	389,823	5,660
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.5	26.0	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-6.1	18.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

11 Apr

The US stocks are back to selling off. The US raised tariffs on China to 145%

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones index (US30) was down 2.50% at Thursday’s close. The S&P500 Index (US500) was down 3.46%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) fell by 4.19%. The White House announced it would raise tariffs on China to 145%, adding uncertainty and fueling fears that trade wars could lead the US into recession. Technology giants led the decline, with Tesla falling 10% and Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon losing more than 6.5%. Oil producers also declined amid falling energy prices, with Chevron and Exxon Mobil falling -6% each. After yesterday’s rally sparked by Trump’s tariff pause, investors’ concerns about economic growth came to the forefront despite evidence of disinflation in today’s CPI data. The annualized US inflation rate fell for the second consecutive month to 2.4% in March 2025, the lowest since September, down from 2.8% in February and below forecasts of 2.6%. Meanwhile, annual core inflation fell to 2.8%, the lowest since March 2021 and below forecasts of 3%.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to 20.5 per dollar, hitting its lowest since March 2022, as continued uncertainty over US trade policy renewed risk aversion and pressured emerging markets. For Mexico, whose economy is closely intertwined with US supply chains, the lack of clarity on the trajectory of global trade poses a direct threat to industrial activity and capital flows. Without a near-term solution, investors shift to safer assets, putting pressure on the peso as markets navigate a highly volatile and fragmented trade situation. Tariffs have already led to plant shutdowns in Mexico. With the looming threat of recession in the US, Mexico’s export prospects have deteriorated.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 4.53%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 3.83%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 4.32%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 3.04% on Thursday. The suspension of tariffs by the EU and the US helped ease fears of a slowing global economy and rising inflation. On Thursday, the European Union announced a 90-day suspension of new tariffs on the US to allow for trade talks, following US President Trump’s decision to slap tariffs on countries that failed to retaliate to his initial trade sanctions. Currently, the US maintains base tariffs of 10% on imports from all countries, including the EU, with some exceptions, while automobiles are still subject to a 25% duty.

The US natural gas prices fell more than 6.5% to $3.55/MMBtu amid a larger-than-expected increase in storage inventories and forecasts of mild weather and lower demand. The EIA reported pumping 57 Bcf into storage last week, well above the five-year average of 17 Bcf.

WTI crude prices fell by 3.7% to $60.1 a barrel on Thursday after rising 4.6% in the previous session as escalating trade tensions between the US and China renewed demand concerns. President Trump raised tariffs on China to 145% just a day after a 104% increase took effect. Although he suspended imposing new tariffs on other countries for 90 days, the sharply escalating relationship with China, the world’s top oil importer, has raised fears of reduced demand for fuel. China has raised tariffs on US goods to 84% and is expected to unveil stimulus measures to support sectors such as housing and consumption.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 9.13% over yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.86%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose 2.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 4.54%. The White House announced that US tariffs on China now stand at 145%, a day after markets rose on President Trump’s decision to delay the imposition of some duties. The Hang Seng Index is on track for its fifth weekly decline, down nearly 10% this week. Traders are awaiting China’s March trade data due over the weekend amid concerns that exports and imports may start to feel the strain of rising tariffs. However, losses were tempered by hopes of new stimulus, with reports on Thursday of a meeting of China’s top leaders to discuss new support measures.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michelle Bullock declined to recommend an early interest rate cut, saying, “It is too early for us to determine what the path of interest rates will be.” The RBA emphasized that it continues to monitor domestic and global markets, including exchange rate movements and the reaction of trading partners. While markets have priced in the possibility of a 50 bps rate cut in May and even called for an emergency rate cut ahead of the board’s next meeting, Bullock reiterated that its focus remains on its dual mandate of price stability and full employment.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,268.05 −188.85 (−3.46%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,593.66 −1,014.79 (−2.50%)

DAX (DE40) 20,562.73 +891.85 (+4.53%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,913.25 +233.77 (+3.04%)

USD index 101.05 −1.85 (−1.80%)

News feed for: 2025.04.11

UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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