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Sterling Strengthens Weak US Dollar and UK Inflation Provide Support

The GBP/USD pair continues its upward trajectory, reaching 1.3429 by Thursday. It is now trading just below yesterday’s peak, its highest level since February 2022.

Key drivers behind GBP/USD’s rise

The rally follows the release of stronger-than-expected UK inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 3.5% in April, the highest reading since January 2024, exceeding both market forecasts (3.3%) and the Bank of England’s projection (3.4%). Contributing factors included:

An increase in Ofgem’s energy price cap
Higher vehicle tax rates

Notably, services sector inflation surged from 4.7% to 5.4%, signalling persistent underlying price pressures.

Market expectations for monetary policy easing have adjusted significantly. Investors now anticipate just one 25-basis-point rate cut by the end of 2025. The likelihood of a rate cut in August has fallen from 60% to 40%.

The Bank of England reduced interest rates by 25 basis points in May, although policymakers were divided on the decision.

Technical analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

The GBP/USD pair completed an upward wave, peaking at 1.3466
Today, we expect consolidation below this level
A downward breakout could initiate a decline towards 1.3131, with 1.3300 acting as the first target
The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line exiting the histogram zone and trending lower

H1 Chart:

The pair reached 1.3466 before correcting to 1.3388, establishing a consolidation range
A downward breakout today could see a move towards 1.3300
The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing decisively downward towards 20

Conclusion

Sterling’s strength persists amid weaker US dollar dynamics and persistent UK inflation. While technical indicators suggest a potential pullback, the broader trend remains influenced by monetary policy expectations and economic data.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 May

The German DAX hit an all-time high. Oil prices jumped above $63 per barrel

By JustMarkets

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.27%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.39%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed lower by 0.38%. Sentiment turned cautious amid renewed uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations and political resistance to the tax plan. An extensive tech sell-off pressured markets, with Alphabet (-1.5%) falling after the Google I/O event, while Nvidia (-0.9%), Meta (-0.5%) and Apple (-0.9%) shares also declined. Additional pressure came from new warnings from JPMorgan and Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, who said tariffs could hamper economic growth and dampen inflation expectations.

The Canadian dollar strengthened at 1.39 per dollar, rebounding from a one-month low of 1.398 hit on May 14, as markets weighed inflation data for April and a weaker US currency. Canada’s Core Consumer Price Index slowed to a 1.7% annualized rate, the slowest pace in seven months, thanks to a 12.7% drop in energy costs following the repeal of a carbon tax and OPEC supply increases. However, the Bank of Canada’s preferred benchmark rate unexpectedly rose to 3.1%, the highest level in thirteen months, indicating continued underlying price pressures and speaking against imminent policy easing. Simultaneously, talks between US Vice President Vance and Prime Minister Carney bolstered hopes for a comprehensive trade agreement, reducing bilateral uncertainty.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was up 0.42%. France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.75% higher, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 1.16%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.94%. Frankfurt’s DAX Index rose for the first time to surpass the 24,000 mark and set a new record high. The rally was fueled by strong performances from BMW, Infineon and Merck, which rose over 1.5%, while Bayer, RWE, and Fresenius Medical Care were up 2-4%. On the macroeconomic front, investor sentiment was supported by better-than-expected Eurozone consumer confidence data for May. In addition, producer prices in Germany fell for the second month in a row, and at a faster pace than expected.

WTI crude oil prices jumped above $63 a barrel on Wednesday following reports that Israel plans to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. While it is still unclear whether Israel has made a final decision, the news has already raised fears of possible supply disruptions in the key oil-producing region of the Middle East. There are growing fears that Iran may retaliate by closing the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, a key route for oil and fuel exports from major Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices jumped more than 6% on Tuesday, topping $3.325/MMBtu, thanks to lower daily production and higher demand expectations for next week.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.08%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.56%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.49%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 0.58%. Hong Kong’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 3.4% for the three months ending April 2025 from 3.2% in the previous period, remaining at the highest level in more than two years. The number of unemployed rose by about 6.6 thousand from the previous month to 124,900, the highest since November 2022.

The New Zealand dollar rose to around US$0.593 on Wednesday, helped by a weaker US dollar amid growing concerns about the US economy. Sentiment was boosted by encouraging domestic data. New Zealand posted a trade surplus of $1.43 billion in April, reversing a deficit of $0.01 billion in the same month last year. This was helped by double-digit export growth (25%), which outpaced import growth (1.8%). On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut the official money rate by 25 bps next week, but some investors suspect the central bank’s easing cycle is nearing an end, with rates hitting 2.83% by the end of the year.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,940.46 −23.14 (−0.39%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,677.24 −114.83 (−0.27%)

DAX (DE40) 24,036.11 +101.13 (+0.42%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,781.12 +81.81 (+0.94%)

USD Index 100.01 −0.41 (−0.41%)

News feed for: 2025.05.21

New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
Japan Trade Balance (m/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

20 May

The PBoC cut the prime rates for the first time in a long time. The RBA expectedly cut the rate by 0.25%

By JustMarkets

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.32%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.09%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.09%. Surprisingly, markets digested positively the downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody’s to Aa1. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the move and urged trading partners to engage during the 90-day tariff pause.

The Mexican peso rose to 19.40 per dollar, nearing a seven-month peak of 19.38 reached on May 14, as Moody’s downgrade of the US sovereign debt rating to Aa1 on May 16 and rising bets on an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut reduced the dollar’s appeal. The Bank of Mexico’s unanimous 50 basis point rate cut to 8.50% on May 15 amid core and core inflation at 3.9% and Q1 GDP growth of just 0.2% drove down yields in Mexico, but a weaker dollar largely supported the peso’s rise.

The Canadian dollar is holding near 1.40 per dollar, remaining near the one-month low of 1.398 hit on May 14, amid US dollar softness offsetting dovish expectations for the Bank of Canada. However, longs remain constrained by expectations of a dovish Bank of Canada rate after disappointing April jobs growth and a rise in the unemployment rate to 6.9% fueled speculation of a rate cut in June, dampening investor appetite for Canadian assets. Canada’s inflation report will be released today, where the same reading as last month is expected.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was up 0.70%. France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.04%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.25%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher 0.17%. The positive sentiment was boosted by a landmark agreement between the UK and the European Union, which calls for closer cooperation in key areas such as energy, trade, defense, travel, and fisheries. The Eurozone’s annual inflation rate for April 2025 was confirmed at 2.2%, just above the European Central Bank’s target of 2.0%.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices fell more than 6% to below $3.10/MMBtu, the lowest since April 25, and extended last week’s decline of more than 12%, driven by weaker near-term demand and lower LNG exports. Warmer-than-normal weather in late May is expected to curb heating demand.

Asian markets were mostly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.68%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.05%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.58%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut key lending rates to a record low during its May meeting, matching market expectations and marking the first cut since October. The move followed wide-ranging monetary easing measures announced by Beijing earlier this month to support a sluggish economy and mitigate the potential impact of ongoing trade tensions with the US. The one-year prime rate (LPR), the benchmark for most corporate and household loans, was cut by 10 basis points to 3.0%, while the five-year LPR, which determines mortgage rates, was cut by the same amount to 3.5%. The offshore yuan fell to around 7.22 per dollar, posting a third straight session of losses and hitting a one-week low.

The Australian dollar slipped to $0.643 on Tuesday, rebounding from the previous session’s gains, after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its key interest rate by 25 bps, as expected, and signaled that risks to the economy were diminishing. Policymakers noted that data for the March quarter confirmed further easing in inflation and pointed to reduced upside risks to inflation. Updated expectations indicated that core inflation is likely to remain near the middle of the 2-3% target range. The RBA also pointed to developments in global trade as a potential impediment to growth, which strengthened the case for additional rate cuts and put pressure on the Australian dollar.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,963.60 +5.22 (+0.09%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,792.07 +137.33 (+0.32%)

DAX (DE40) 23,934.98 +167.55 (+0.70%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,699.31 +14.75 (+0.17%)

USD Index 100.36 -0.73 (-0.73%)

News feed for: 2025.05.20

China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:15 (GMT+3);
Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 07:00 (GMT+3);
Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement at 07:00 (GMT+3);
Australia RBA Press Conference at 08:30 (GMT+3);
Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

20 May

Euro Rises as US Dollar Comes Under Pressure Amid Budget Deficit Concerns

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair climbed to 1.1243 on Tuesday, marking another attempt to break free from the narrow trading range it has occupied for over a week. This latest upward movement could prove more decisive than previous efforts.

Key drivers affecting EUR/USD

The US dollar came under sustained pressure in the previous session, driven by growing concerns over the widening US debt and budget deficit. These fears were exacerbated by a warning from Moody’s of a potential downgrade to the US credit rating.

Fiscal risks intensified following the House Budget Committee’s approval of President Donald Trump’s fiscal bill, which could add trillions of dollars to the deficit over the next decade. Despite criticism, the administration maintains that tax cuts will spur economic growth, boost revenues, and ultimately reduce the deficit.

Meanwhile, Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, reiterated expectations of a single rate cut this year, citing ongoing uncertainty arising from trade tariffs.

Today, market attention turns to the Eurozone’s preliminary consumer confidence index for May. No major US economic releases are scheduled.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate around 1.1212, with the potential for an upward move towards 1.1300 (testing from below). The current uptrend is a corrective phase following the most recent decline. Once this correction concludes, a new downward wave may emerge, targeting 1.1029 as the initial objective. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line remaining above zero and trending upwards.

H1 Chart:

The pair is forming a fifth-wave structure within the correction towards 1.1300. Traders should monitor whether this level is reached today. A resumption of the downtrend may follow, with 1.1166 as the next key level. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and ascending towards 80.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair’s latest rally reflects dollar weakness prompted by fiscal concerns, while technical indicators suggest a potential reversal once the current correction has played out. With no major US releases, traders will look to Eurozone sentiment for further direction.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 May

Moody’s has downgraded the credit rating of the United States. PBoC intends to cut interest rates

By JustMarkets

At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.78% (for the week +1.80%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.70% (for the week +2.60%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.43% (for the week +2.93%). Wall Street ended the week on a high note, with all three major indices posting solid weekly gains, helped by easing trade tensions between the US and China. However, soft consumer sentiment data somewhat dampened the rally: the University of Michigan Index fell to 50.8, the second lowest ever recorded, while annual inflation expectations jumped to 7.3%.

Moody’s Credit Ratings downgraded the US credit rating by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa amid concerns about rising debt and interest payments. The agency said it expects federal debt to increase to about 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% last year. At the same time, the federal budget deficit is expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP by 2035, up from 6.4% in 2024, due to higher interest payments on debt, higher social spending, and lower government revenues from tax cuts.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.30% (for the week +0.04%), setting a new all-time high. France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.42% higher (for the week +1.11%), Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.96% (+3.10% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.59% higher (+1.52% for the week). The EU bloc is pushing for a more comprehensive deal with the US to reduce tariffs than those currently being discussed with the UK and China, adding that discussions are progressing positively.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.4% to settle at $62.5 a barrel on Friday, recording their second consecutive weekly gain of more than 2% as easing trade tensions between the US and China helped boost sentiment. A 90-day tariff truce between the world’s two biggest oil consumers helped ease fears of weakening demand. However, caution remained due to rising US crude inventories and the IEA’s expectations of a supply surplus in 2025 due to increased OPEC+ production. Analysts also lowered long-term oil price projections, citing trade policy uncertainty.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.15%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.74%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.74%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.37%. Mainland equities declined for the second consecutive session as concerns over US tariffs continue to dampen sentiment. Market sentiment was further dampened by a sharp drop in Alibaba Group shares, down more than 4% in Hong Kong, after the e-commerce giant reported lower-than-expected quarterly earnings.

The foundation for China’s economic recovery “needs to be further strengthened” amid external uncertainties, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement. The remarks followed April activity data that showed mixed figures. China’s industrial production rose 6.1% y/y, beating expectations of 5.5% but slowing from March’s 7.7% growth, the fastest in nearly four years. Meanwhile, retail sales rose less than expected, reflecting weak domestic consumption and sluggish income growth. At the same time, the nation’s urban unemployment rate fell to a four-month low of 5.1% from 5.2% in March. Fixed asset investment for January-April, including real estate and infrastructure, rose 4.0%, below the 4.2% projections. China’s Central Bank is set to revise its benchmark lending rates, which have remained at record lows in recent months, as the economy faces domestic and external pressures. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is scheduled to meet tomorrow.

Hong Kong’s economy grew by 3.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, in line with preliminary estimates and accelerated from an upwardly revised 2.5% in Q4 2024. Growth was mainly driven by strong external demand, especially in exports of goods and services, as businesses increased shipments in advance in anticipation of the upcoming tariff hike in the US. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP grew by 1.9%, the fastest pace in two years and an acceleration from the previous quarter’s upwardly revised 0.9%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,958.38 +41.45 (+0.70%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,654.74 +331.99 (+0.78%)

DAX (DE40) 23,767.43 +71.84 (+0.30%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,684.56 +50.81 (+0.59%)

USD Index 100.98 +0.10 (+0.10%)

News feed for: 2025.05.19

New Zealand Producer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3).
China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel speaks at 19:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

19 May

Japanese Yen Strengthens as US Dollar Weakens Following Credit Downgrade

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair declined for a fifth consecutive day, touching 145.25, as the US dollar faced sustained pressure following Moody’s decision to downgrade the US credit rating.

Key drivers affecting USD/JPY

On Friday, Moody’s cut the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing a deteriorating fiscal outlook and a lack of “effective measures” to curb the widening budget deficit.

Meanwhile, domestic data revealed that Japan’s economy contracted in Q1 2025, shrinking by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, falling short of expectations in both cases. This marks the first economic contraction of the year, driven primarily by a decline in exports.

Investors are now closely monitoring Japan’s trade figures, particularly as the potential impact of new US tariffs looms.

In a recent statement, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stressed that Japan would not accept an unconditional preliminary trade deal, especially concerning automobiles. The country remains wary of a potential 25% US tariff on Japanese car imports. While Japanese diplomats are keen to finalise a trade agreement with the US swiftly, they acknowledge that the outcome is not entirely within their control.

Technical analysis: USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has corrected to 146.04, with the fifth wave of decline now in motion. The immediate downside target is 143.50, with further downward momentum expected today. Once this target is achieved, a potential rebound towards 146.04 may follow. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and points firmly downward.

On the H1 chart, the pair consolidated around 146.04 before breaking downward. The current focus is on completing the fifth decline wave towards 143.50. So far, the pair has reached 144.80, followed by a minor correction to 145.30. The next expected move is a further drop to 144.15, with an eventual extension towards 143.50. This outlook is reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, where the signal line has dipped below 80 and is trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The US dollar’s weakness, exacerbated by Moody’s downgrade, continues to drive USD/JPY lower, while Japan’s economic contraction adds further complexity. Traders should monitor trade developments and technical levels for near-term direction.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

18 May

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Silver & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Silver & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-1,288 contracts), Silver (-1,498 contracts), Steel (-635 contracts), Palladium (-470 contracts), Platinum (-194 contracts) and with Copper (-181 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (26 percent) and Platinum (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (41.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (41.9 percent)
Silver (76.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (78.4 percent)
Copper (53.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (53.5 percent)
Platinum (38.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.4 percent)
Palladium (25.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (29.5 percent)
Steel (77.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (80.2 percent)

Copper & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all of the metals markets currently have negative trend scores. Copper (-8 percent) and Steel (-9 percent) have the least negative scores while Gold (-29 percent) and Palladium (-20 percent) have the most negative scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-29.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (-33.2 percent)
Silver (-12.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.8 percent)
Copper (-7.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.5 percent)
Platinum (-13.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-9.6 percent)
Palladium (-19.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-12.6 percent)
Steel (-8.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (-13.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 161,209 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 162,497 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	20.1	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	63.4	4.9
– Net Position:	161,209	-191,207	29,998
– Gross Longs:	238,191	88,412	51,570
– Gross Shorts:	76,982	279,619	21,572
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	53.5	92.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.3	26.6	14.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,754 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,252 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.1	24.0	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	71.9	6.6
– Net Position:	47,754	-66,180	18,426
– Gross Longs:	67,944	33,164	27,520
– Gross Shorts:	20,190	99,344	9,094
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.5	21.2	59.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	11.3	-3.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.7	31.0	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	43.5	5.9
– Net Position:	21,522	-24,343	2,821
– Gross Longs:	71,926	60,805	14,368
– Gross Shorts:	50,404	85,148	11,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.3	49.5	34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	5.8	10.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	24.5	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	42.2	5.8
– Net Position:	9,316	-13,469	4,153
– Gross Longs:	42,968	18,603	8,566
– Gross Shorts:	33,652	32,072	4,413
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.0	62.7	27.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	13.4	-4.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,991 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	50.9	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.6	5.0	7.3
– Net Position:	-10,461	9,659	802
– Gross Longs:	5,661	10,715	2,345
– Gross Shorts:	16,122	1,056	1,543
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	10.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.9	71.0	67.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.5	20.0	-1.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	65.0	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	65.4	0.7
– Net Position:	171	-157	-14
– Gross Longs:	10,440	22,868	218
– Gross Shorts:	10,269	23,025	232
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	24.2	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	9.0	-8.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

18 May

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (116,453 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (62,817 contracts), the Fed Funds (36,496 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (18,160 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (3,553 contracts) and the SOFR 1-Month (3,019 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-35,910 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-6,465 contracts) and with the 2-Year Bonds (-1,439 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (75 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (67 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (56 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bond (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (22 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (39.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (33.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (24.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (18.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (56.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (50.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (74.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (73.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (67.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (66.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (21.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (22.1 percent)

Fed Funds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (13 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-68 percent), the US Treasury Bonds (-16 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (13.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-0.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-2.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-7.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-18.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-2.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-13.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-68.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-63.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-15.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-20.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-2.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (8.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (11.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (5.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (1.1 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 36,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	66.8	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	63.1	2.8
– Net Position:	-79,469	74,867	4,602
– Gross Longs:	365,290	1,354,085	60,600
– Gross Shorts:	444,759	1,279,218	55,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	55.7	68.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-10.4	-17.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -744,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -738,403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	60.6	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	53.7	0.9
– Net Position:	-744,868	749,170	-4,302
– Gross Longs:	1,274,538	6,601,971	95,390
– Gross Shorts:	2,019,406	5,852,801	99,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.8	78.3	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-5.1	-3.9

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.5	63.7	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	64.6	0.6
– Net Position:	-5,072	-10,929	16,001
– Gross Longs:	199,970	774,062	23,195
– Gross Shorts:	205,042	784,991	7,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	28.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-14.8	51.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,222,232 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,220,793 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	77.7	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	50.9	3.3
– Net Position:	-1,222,232	1,113,426	108,806
– Gross Longs:	562,762	3,224,121	247,644
– Gross Shorts:	1,784,994	2,110,695	138,838
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.2	82.0	69.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	-0.1	-0.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,180,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 116,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,296,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	81.2	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	52.7	4.5
– Net Position:	-2,180,043	2,041,577	138,466
– Gross Longs:	587,192	5,807,519	460,064
– Gross Shorts:	2,767,235	3,765,942	321,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.3	97.9	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	12.0	-13.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -890,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 62,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -953,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	77.4	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	61.8	7.2
– Net Position:	-890,351	805,053	85,298
– Gross Longs:	480,171	3,993,517	454,804
– Gross Shorts:	1,370,522	3,188,464	369,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.5	77.3	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.6	7.5	-10.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -319,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -35,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -283,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	76.4	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	61.9	10.8
– Net Position:	-319,607	337,514	-17,907
– Gross Longs:	287,304	1,776,279	232,514
– Gross Shorts:	606,911	1,438,765	250,421
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.3	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-68.3	81.0	5.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -77,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,789 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	74.9	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	76.0	7.2
– Net Position:	-77,629	-20,577	98,206
– Gross Longs:	184,789	1,369,783	230,861
– Gross Shorts:	262,418	1,390,360	132,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	33.0	85.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	14.6	-3.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -261,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -264,775 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	82.5	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	70.1	8.1
– Net Position:	-261,222	234,240	26,982
– Gross Longs:	120,605	1,568,207	180,961
– Gross Shorts:	381,827	1,333,967	153,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.6	29.5	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	4.6	-5.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

18 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Soybeans & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (15,793 contracts) with Lean Hogs (9,256 contracts), Soybean Oil (7,294 contracts), Sugar (6,490 contracts), Cocoa (3,957 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,027 contracts) and Live Cattle (2,016 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-97,793 contracts), Wheat (-10,563 contracts), Coffee (-3,271 contracts) and with Cotton (-7,467 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (88 percent) and Soybean Oil (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (71 percent), Soybeans (67 percent) and Lean Hogs (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent) and Soybean Meal (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (20 percent) and the Cotton (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (38.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (52.0 percent)
Sugar (19.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (17.8 percent)
Coffee (70.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (73.7 percent)
Soybeans (67.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (63.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (82.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (78.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (6.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.3 percent)
Live Cattle (87.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (85.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (64.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (56.8 percent)
Cotton (27.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (31.7 percent)
Cocoa (31.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (27.2 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (7.3 percent)

Soybean Oil & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (34 percent) and Soybeans (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (15 percent), Lean Hogs (13 percent) and Cocoa (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Corn (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-12 percent) and Wheat (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-20.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-11.5 percent)
Sugar (-7.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-9.5 percent)
Coffee (-7.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-8.8 percent)
Soybeans (17.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (16.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (34.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (49.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-1.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-12.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-9.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (6.3 percent)
Cotton (14.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (26.7 percent)
Cocoa (2.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.4 percent)
Wheat (-10.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-17.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -97,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,899 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.5	46.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	45.4	10.6
– Net Position:	18,106	13,151	-31,257
– Gross Longs:	341,178	735,478	137,591
– Gross Shorts:	323,072	722,327	168,848
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.7	59.2	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	18.9	28.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 28,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	51.6	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	55.6	8.0
– Net Position:	28,930	-31,282	2,352
– Gross Longs:	200,858	406,500	65,256
– Gross Shorts:	171,928	437,782	62,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	82.1	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	10.9	-22.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	38.1	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.8	69.4	4.0
– Net Position:	46,070	-48,390	2,320
– Gross Longs:	56,603	58,862	8,530
– Gross Shorts:	10,533	107,252	6,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.5	30.8	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	7.9	-4.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 65,178 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	48.0	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	54.3	7.4
– Net Position:	65,178	-51,976	-13,202
– Gross Longs:	188,820	394,900	47,999
– Gross Shorts:	123,642	446,876	61,201
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	30.0	78.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.6	-20.9	23.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 74,199 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,905 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	44.7	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	59.0	4.5
– Net Position:	74,199	-83,812	9,613
– Gross Longs:	156,359	261,556	35,793
– Gross Shorts:	82,160	345,368	26,180
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.8	18.9	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.3	-34.5	23.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -50,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,027 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	48.9	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	43.3	5.6
– Net Position:	-50,928	32,707	18,221
– Gross Longs:	124,466	285,129	51,140
– Gross Shorts:	175,394	252,422	32,919
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	90.7	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-0.7	-9.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 110,647 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,016 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 108,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.1	25.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	48.9	14.1
– Net Position:	110,647	-87,816	-22,831
– Gross Longs:	194,275	97,817	30,544
– Gross Shorts:	83,628	185,633	53,375
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.5	15.3	17.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	12.3	9.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,757 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.5	33.3	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	48.5	8.3
– Net Position:	46,757	-44,113	-2,644
– Gross Longs:	111,314	96,248	21,292
– Gross Shorts:	64,557	140,361	23,936
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.0	33.1	61.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.6	-14.2	2.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,467 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	47.7	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	38.9	6.0
– Net Position:	-17,543	19,738	-2,195
– Gross Longs:	64,575	107,157	11,294
– Gross Shorts:	82,118	87,419	13,489
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	76.0	6.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.9	-11.2	-34.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 20,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,957 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	37.0	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	64.9	5.9
– Net Position:	20,868	-27,022	6,154
– Gross Longs:	30,518	35,859	11,897
– Gross Shorts:	9,650	62,881	5,743
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.2	66.3	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-5.2	30.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -118,100 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	38.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.7	15.3	7.0
– Net Position:	-118,100	112,476	5,624
– Gross Longs:	126,006	186,211	39,311
– Gross Shorts:	244,106	73,735	33,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	87.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	12.3	-8.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

18 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE-Mini (7,301 contracts) with the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (1,319 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-45,789 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-13,300 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-13,528 contracts) and with the VIX (-4,844 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nikkei 225 & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) and the VIX (96 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (93 percent) and DowJones-Mini (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (57 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is still above the 50 percent midpoint for the past 3-years.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (95.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (100.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (57.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (65.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (71.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (69.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (69.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (90.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (62.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (71.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (93.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (83.0 percent)

Nikkei 225 & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (35 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (17 percent), the DowJones-Mini (16 percent) and the VIX (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-8 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (14.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (17.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-18.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-4.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (15.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (16.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (6.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (37.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (17.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (10.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	41.3	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	44.9	12.4
– Net Position:	6,099	-10,164	4,065
– Gross Longs:	65,347	114,114	38,350
– Gross Shorts:	59,248	124,278	34,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.9	2.8	88.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-15.0	9.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -122,194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -45,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,405 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	74.0	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	71.1	8.9
– Net Position:	-122,194	61,669	60,525
– Gross Longs:	243,291	1,572,344	250,278
– Gross Shorts:	365,485	1,510,675	189,753
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	44.1	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	17.6	-5.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.1	61.9	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.9	67.5	16.0
– Net Position:	7,114	-4,300	-2,814
– Gross Longs:	13,259	47,987	9,602
– Gross Shorts:	6,145	52,287	12,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	32.0	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.8	-11.5	-10.7

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.4	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.3	59.0	15.4
– Net Position:	19,547	-10,153	-9,394
– Gross Longs:	85,720	157,125	34,258
– Gross Shorts:	66,173	167,278	43,652
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.5	42.6	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	19.7	-43.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -28,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	75.6	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	68.6	5.8
– Net Position:	-28,356	30,861	-2,505
– Gross Longs:	62,021	335,022	23,084
– Gross Shorts:	90,377	304,161	25,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	42.9	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	13.5	-30.6

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	60.5	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.5	75.4	22.1
– Net Position:	1,904	-1,590	-314
– Gross Longs:	2,169	6,480	2,056
– Gross Shorts:	265	8,070	2,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	15.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.0	-26.7	-5.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	88.4	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	90.3	1.1
– Net Position:	2,709	-8,568	5,859
– Gross Longs:	41,277	406,707	10,913
– Gross Shorts:	38,568	415,275	5,054
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.1	15.9	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.2	-11.2	-15.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

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