Archive for Financial News – Page 65

23 Apr

Pound Hits Fresh High Against the US Dollar Before Correcting: What’s Driving GBP/USD?

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

GBP/USD reached a seven-month peak at 1.3423 — its highest level since 26 September 2024 — before entering a corrective phase.

Key Drivers Behind GBP/USD Movements

Market concerns over US President Donald Trump’s criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have eased. Trump has since clarified that Powell will not be dismissed, though he expressed frustration over the Fed’s reluctance to cut interest rates sooner.

The US Dollar’s rebound against the Pound followed the release of UK inflation data and a slightly weaker outlook for the labour market. Although the figures were published last week, the market has only now fully digested their implications.

In March, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to a three-month low. Meanwhile, the employment sector appears vulnerable ahead of another planned rise in employer taxes, due by the end of April.

Current market expectations suggest the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in May, with an additional 85 bps of easing anticipated by year-end.

While US tariff policies are unlikely to directly impact UK inflation, their broader effect may contribute to lower rather than higher price pressures.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart Overview

  • The pair formed a consolidation range near 1.3066 before breaking upwards in a wave structure towards 1.3420.
  • A corrective pullback to 1.3200 is now underway.
  • The next phase may see a resumption of upward momentum towards 1.3310, potentially establishing a new consolidation range around this level.
  • The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line exiting the histogram area and pointing sharply downward, suggesting near-term bearish momentum.

 

H1 Chart Overview

  • GBP/USD broke below 1.3310, hitting a local downside target at 1.3233.
  • Today, the pair retested 1.3310 from below, and further downside movement towards 1.3200 is now in focus.
  • The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line remains below 80 and is trending downward towards 20, indicating weakening bullish momentum.

 

Conclusion

The GBP/USD rally has paused as traders assess mixed UK economic data and shifting Fed policy expectations. While near-term corrections are likely, the broader trend could see renewed upside if key support levels hold. Technical indicators suggest further consolidation before the next decisive move.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
22 Apr

Trump lashed out at the US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell with criticism. Energy prices are falling

By JustMarkets 

The Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 2.48% on Monday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 2.36%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) fell 2.46%. The US stocks fell sharply on Monday after President Trump stepped up criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, heightening concerns about the Central Bank’s independence and undermining investor confidence. All 11 sectors ended trading in the negative, with technology, consumer discretionary, and energy stocks the hardest hit. In his Truth social media post, Trump called Powell “Mr. Too Late, a major lose” and demanded an immediate rate cut, just days after he said his team might consider removing Powell from his post. Uncertainty over global trade, especially with China, further weighed on sentiment as talks made little progress.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to $1.38 in April, hitting a six-month high, as investors digested the Bank of Canada’s recent decision, coupled with a weaker US dollar. The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.75%, citing the unclear outlook for tariffs in the US, which could either support solid growth with inflation around 2% or, if tariffs intensify, trigger a recession and higher inflation. In addition, China’s 90% cut in US oil imports has caused more than a quarter of its demand for offshore crude to shift to Canadian barrels.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 19.6 per dollar, a near six-month high, helped by general weakness in the US dollar, exacerbated by relatively high Banxico interest rates. The peso was bolstered by a “very productive” conversation between Presidents Trump and Sheinbaum, which allayed fears of new tariffs on steel, cars, and tomatoes, as well as steady oil export revenues that continue to boost Mexico’s trade receipts.

Equity markets in Europe were not trading on Friday and Monday.

WTI crude prices fell by 2.5% to $63.1 a barrel on Monday as easing tensions between the US and Iran raised the likelihood that more Iranian oil would return to the market. Talks between the two sides have made “very good progress”, and a framework for a potential nuclear deal is planned.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices fell more than 5% to $3.0/MMBtu, the lowest level since late January, as record production and projections for milder weather lowered demand expectations. At the same time, uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff policy change has raised concerns about a slowing global economy and lower energy demand.

Asian markets traded without a single dynamic. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.30%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.06%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) and the ASX 200 (AU200) were not trading on Friday and Monday.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is encouraging state-owned enterprises to use the yuan for payments and settlements in overseas transactions, seeking to expand the currency’s use globally amid ongoing trade tensions. The PBoC said it will strengthen the cross-border interbank payment system (CIPS), promote the implementation of blockchain to ensure the security and efficiency of global settlement services, and support the Shanghai Gold Exchange in cooperation with overseas exchanges to expand the use of yuan reference prices in major global markets.

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.64 on Tuesday, hitting its highest level in four months, as renewed criticism of the Federal Reserve from President Trump undermined investor confidence in US assets. Frustration over stalled global trade talks also weighed on sentiment, as China strongly opposes Trump’s tariff demands. On the domestic front, traders are increasingly betting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates at its May meeting. While a 25 basis point rate cut is widely expected, some are pricing in a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut amid growing fears of a global economic slowdown caused by trade tensions.

Markets still expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut its 3.5% monetary rate by 25 bps in May, with a further cut to 2.75% by the end of the year. In terms of economic news, trade data for March showed New Zealand exports up 19% year-on-year, while imports rose 12%. These trends contributed to a double trade surplus of $970 million, the largest since the pandemic in 2020.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,158.20 −124.50 (−2.36%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,170.41 −971.82 (−2.48%)

DAX (DE40) 21,205.86 0 (0%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,275.66 0 (0%)

USD Index 98.32 −1.06 (−1.06%)

News feed for: 2025.04.22

  • New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • Canada Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Richmond Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
21 Apr

EUR/USD Hits Three-Year High as US White House Policy Concerns Mount

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The EUR/USD pair surged to a fresh three-year peak on Monday, holding steady at 1.1518 amid growing unease over US economic policy.

Key Drivers Behind the EUR/USD Rally

Investors returning from the Easter break were met with renewed concerns over the US White House’s stance on the Federal Reserve and its Chair, Jerome Powell. Questions surrounding the Fed’s independence have unsettled markets, particularly after Donald Trump ramped up his criticism of Powell.

While the US President has previously threatened to dismiss Powell, legal and institutional barriers make such a move difficult. Nevertheless, Trump’s rhetoric has grown increasingly aggressive, as he pushes for swifter interest rate cuts and greater monetary policy flexibility. The Fed, however, remains caught between taming inflation and navigating a robust labour market—a delicate balancing act that has only heightened market anxiety.

These tensions compound existing worries over escalating trade conflicts and broader uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s economic policies. Over the weekend, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee added to the unease, warning that US tariffs could dampen economic activity by summer.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart Outlook

  • The pair previously consolidated around 1.1333 before breaking upward.
  • After finding support at 1.1390, it formed a bullish wave towards 1.1530.
  • A downward correction towards 1.1390 is now anticipated. A break below this level could extend losses to 1.1245.
  • The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line above zero but pointing sharply downward.

H1 Chart Outlook

  • The market briefly consolidated near 1.1390 before rallying to 1.1530.
  • A pullback towards 1.1390 is now in focus, with a breakdown potentially opening the door to 1.1245.
  • The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this scenario, hovering above 80 and poised for a decline towards 20.

 

Conclusion

The EUR/USD rally reflects mounting scepticism towards US policy stability, with technical indicators now hinting at a potential retracement. Traders will be watching closely for further Fed commentary and political developments that could sway the pair’s trajectory.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
18 Apr

Today is Good Friday — most financial markets will be closed

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 1.33%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.13%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed at opening levels. The US stocks closed mixed ahead of the Good Friday holiday as investors weighed trade talks and interest rate uncertainty. A decline in weekly jobless claims indicates a resilient labor market, although attention remains focused on trade talks and monetary policy signals. The US initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 from the previous week to 215,000 in the second week of April, contrary to market expectations of a 1,000 increase to 225,000, the lowest in two months.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.49%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.60%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.01%. Frankfurt’s DAX Index remained in negative territory after the ECB cut rates in an expected move to cushion the economy from tariff-related tensions.

The ECB cut all three key interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the main refinancing rate to 2.40%, the deposit rate to 2.25%, and the marginal lending facility to 2.65%, as expected. The decision reflects growing confidence that inflation is on track for a sustained return to the 2% target. The ECB acknowledged that growth prospects have weakened and emphasized that further action will depend on the data. European markets will be closed for Easter through Monday and will reopen on Tuesday, April 22.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 3.5% on Thursday to settle at $64.70 a barrel, marking the second straight session of gains. The rise followed new US sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports, adding to fears of a tightening global supply. The sanctions hit Iran’s oil sector and a refinery in China, increasing pressure on Tehran amid nuclear tensions. Supply concerns were further heightened after OPEC+ said it had received updated plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other countries for additional production cuts.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.35%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.20%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.61%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.78%. The recovery in Asian indices followed a rise in US futures after President Trump claimed “great progress” in talks aimed at helping Japan avoid a tariff hike. Investor sentiment was also boosted after Chinese President Xi Jinping called for regional unity and the creation of an “Asian family” during his tour of Southeast Asia.

The New Zealand dollar fell to US$0.593 on Friday, retreating from a five-month high and snapping a seven-day winning streak, as expectations of further easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand dampened momentum. This came despite stronger-than-expected first-quarter consumer inflation data, while core inflation figures declined. With price pressures contained and remaining within the RBNZ’s target range, markets still expect a rate cut in May and a reduction in the cash rate to 2.75% by the end of the year.

The Australian dollar slid to US$0.637 on Friday, breaking a seven-day winning streak in thin trading as local markets were closed due to the Good Friday holiday. The decline followed weaker-than-expected domestic employment data earlier in the week, which reinforced expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, compared to growth of 5% in the previous quarter. This is the slowest growth rate in a year, driven by weaker growth in services (5.2% vs. 5.4% in Q4), construction (14.5% vs. 20.7%), and manufacturing (4.2% vs. 4.4%). In quarterly terms, the economy contracted by 3.7% after growing by 2.7% in Q4.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,282.64 +6.94 (+0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,142.11 −527.28 (−1.33%)

DAX (DE40) 21,205.86 −105.16 (−0.49%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,275.66 +0.061 (+0.01%)

USD Index 99.39 +0.01 (+0.01%)

News feed for: 2025.04.18

  • Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
18 Apr

EUR/USD in Equilibrium: Quiet Trading Expected on Good Friday

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate around 1.1371 this Friday, with trading activity subdued due to Good Friday market closures in the US and most of Europe.

Key Drivers of EUR/USD Movement

With low trading volumes, the pair’s movements remain constrained, leaving it near its three-year peak. Recent USD weakness stemmed from two primary factors:

  • Concerns over the impact of US tariff policies.
  • Growing political uncertainty under the Trump administration.

However, sentiment appears to be stabilising as the US engages in trade discussions with key partners, including Japan and Italy. President Trump hinted yesterday at a potential easing of trade tensions with China, suggesting he may halt further tariff hikes and even consider reductions in the future.

Simultaneously, Trump has sharpened his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, expressing frustration over the slow pace of interest rate cuts. He emphasised, however, that Powell’s resignation is unlikely to happen soon.

On the data front, yesterday’s US jobless claims fell to a two-month low, reflecting the enduring strength of the labour market. Meanwhile, the ECB cut interest rates for the seventh consecutive time, adding further nuance to the currency dynamic.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart Outlook

  • The pair is consolidating near 1.1333, with a potential Triangle pattern forming.
  • A decline to 1.1280 is anticipated, followed by a possible rebound to 1.1370 before another drop toward 1.1250.
  • This scenario is technically supported by the MACD, where the signal line remains above zero but points firmly downward.

H1 Chart Outlook

  • The pair completed a downward wave to 1.1264, then corrected to 1.1412.
  • Today, focus remains on a further decline to 1.1250. A breach here could open the door for a third wave of decline, targeting 1.1080, with potential extension to 1.1030.
  • The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line sits below 80 and trends sharply downward toward 20.

 

Conclusion

With markets quiet for Good Friday, EUR/USD remains range-bound. However, technical indicators suggest downside risks in the near term, contingent on key support breaks. Traders should monitor US-China trade developments and Fed policy rhetoric for directional cues.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
17 Apr

The Bank of Canada kept the interest rate unchanged. In New Zealand, there is an increase in inflation

By JustMarkets 

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.73%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 2.24%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 3.04%. Wall Street faced a broad sell-off on Wednesday, led by a sharp drop in technology stocks amid escalating trade tensions and cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Nvidia fell by 6.9% after the chipmaker said it will have to pay $5.5 billion because of new restrictions on US exports of artificial intelligence chips destined for China. Other chipmakers followed: AMD (-7.3%) and Micron Technology (-2.4%) fell amid cost warnings and weak demand. Powell’s speech in Chicago added to market worries, warning that tariffs could push up inflation and slow growth, creating a dilemma for the Fed’s dual mandate. Investors were frustrated by the lack of a clear signal of future rate cuts, causing major indexes to fall to session lows.

The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark rate at 2.75%, its first pause after a cumulative 2.25 percentage point cut over seven meetings, citing the unclear outlook for tariffs in the US, which could either support solid growth with inflation near 2% or, if tariffs intensify, trigger a recession and higher inflation. This cautious stance has reinforced expectations of stable monetary policy in Canada, which has supported the Canadian dollar, while the US dollar is weakening under the weight of potential new tariffs on critical minerals, adding further uncertainty to the US growth outlook.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) warned that global trade could contract by 1.5% in 2025 if Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies cause widespread trade uncertainty, in sharp contrast to the previous expectations of 2.7% growth.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.27%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.07% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.49%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.32%.

WTI crude oil prices hit $63 per barrel as new US sanctions against Chinese importers of Iranian oil renewed supply concerns. The sanctions are aimed at reducing Iran’s oil exports as nuclear talks resume, fueling fears of dwindling global supplies. Prices were further supported by an OPEC report that Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other countries are planning additional production cuts to offset previous overproduction.

Asian markets were predominantly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.01%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.48%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.91%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.04%.

New Zealand’s annualized inflation rate rose to 2.5% in the first quarter, slightly above market expectations of 2.3%, up from 2.2% in the previous quarter. Despite the rise, the rate was within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range of 1-3% for the third consecutive quarter, reinforcing the view that this will not prevent further rate cuts. Markets still expect another 25bp rate cut at the next RBNZ meeting in May, with rates likely to reach the 2.75% level by the end of the year.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar slipped to USD 0.635, breaking a six-day winning streak, as weaker-than-expected employment data fueled expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. While the unemployment rate remained at a low 4.1%, employment growth in March came in below expectations. This boosted bets that the RBA would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May, with some even speculating a possible 50 basis point hike amid growing fears of a tariff-induced slowdown in the global economy.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,275.70 −120.93 (−2.24%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,669.39 −699.57 (−1.73%)

DAX (DE40) 21,311.02 +57.32 (+0.27%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,275.60 +26.48 (+0.32%)

USD Index 99.31 −0.91 (−0.90%)

News feed for: 2025.04.17

  • New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB Rate Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Report at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
17 Apr

Pound Among the Winners Boosted by US Dollar Weakness and Rate Cut Prospects

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The GBP/USD pair climbed for seven consecutive days, reaching 1.3210, before experiencing a slight dip on Thursday. This marks the longest sustained rise for the currency pair since July last year, with the pound’s strength primarily driven by a weakening US dollar.

Key factors influencing GBP/USD movements

Fundamentally, the outlook remains mixed. The UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell more than anticipated in March, with annual inflation dropping to 2.6% and services sector inflation easing to 4.7%. This has alleviated some pressure on the Bank of England (BoE), prompting markets to adjust their expectations for monetary policy easing.

Traders are now pricing in rate cuts of around 85 basis points by year-end, with the first reduction widely expected in the coming months. By December, there is a greater than 50% probability of a further cut, as slowing inflation could give the BoE more flexibility to support the economy and households amid ongoing trade uncertainties.

Technical analysis: GBP/USD outlook

H4 Chart Perspective

 

  • The GBP/USD pair recently completed an upward wave, peaking near 1.3290
  • A downward impulse is now unfolding, targeting 1.3165
  • A potential rebound towards 1.3222 may follow before a possible decline to 1.2990
  • This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line has exited the histogram area and is trending sharply downward

H1 Chart Perspective

  • The pair consolidated around 1.3222 before breaking lower
  • The immediate downside target is 1.2880, followed by a potential retest of 1.3222 from below
  • The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this view, with its signal line below 50 and descending towards 20

 

Conclusion

While the pound benefits from a softer dollar and shifting rate expectations, technical indicators suggest potential near-term volatility. Traders should monitor both macroeconomic developments and key technical levels for further directional cues.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
16 Apr

China data beat expectations. Inflationary pressures in Canada continue to ease

By JustMarkets

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.38%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.17%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.18%. The three major US stock indices ended mixed on Tuesday as investors weighed a fresh batch of corporate earnings and lingering concerns over tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. President Trump said China should return to the negotiating table to ease tariffs, emphasizing the importance of US consumer demand. Markets rose on Monday on hopes of a pause in tariffs on automobiles and exemptions for some technology goods. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department has begun inspecting imports of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, signaling that new tariffs may be imposed.

Canada’s annualized inflation rate for March 2025 fell to 2.3% from an eight-month high of 2.6% in the previous month, below market expectations, which had expected inflation to remain at 2.6%, and below the Central Bank’s projections of 2.5%. The decline marked the beginning of a normalization of the Bank of England’s inflation prognoses for this year, after the end of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and Harmonized Tax (HST) exemptions in the middle of last month caused core inflation to rise 0.6 percentage points. Gasoline prices declined (-1.6% vs. 5.1% in February) amid an aggressive fall in crude oil prices after OPEC+ confirmed plans to increase production, leading to a slowdown in transportation inflation (1.2% vs. 3%).

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.43%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.86% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.14%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 1.41%. European equities closed solidly higher on Tuesday, extending last session’s sharp gains, after the prospect that the US may suspend the imposition of tariffs on cars and parts supported key sectors of the European economy.

WTI crude oil prices slipped toward $61 a barrel amid signs of weakening demand and a potential supply glut. The International Energy Agency sharply lowered its demand expectations for 2025, warning that the global glut could persist until 2026. OPEC and EIA also lowered their estimates due to slowing growth, trade tensions, and lower fuel consumption. Trump’s tariff war has raised concerns about slowing global growth, especially in the US and China, major oil consumers.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.84% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.23%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.17%.

The Reuters Tankan Sentiment Index for manufacturers in Japan jumped to positive 9 in April 2025 from negative 1 in March, the highest reading since August last year. Despite favorable current sentiment, the outlook for the next three months has deteriorated due to growing concerns over US trade policy. The index is expected to fall to zero as Japan prepares to impose 10% tariffs on US exports and 25% tariffs on automobiles. Export-oriented industries, especially automobile and machinery, are bracing for falling orders and rising customer caution.

China’s economy grew at an annualized rate of 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, maintaining the same pace as in the fourth quarter and exceeding market expectations of 5.1%. This was the highest annualized growth rate in the past 1.5 years amid Beijing’s continued economic stimulus. China’s industrial production in March 2025 grew 7.7% y/y, exceeding market expectations of 5.6% and accelerating from the 5.9% growth recorded in January-February. This was the strongest growth in industrial production since June 2021. In addition, retail sales posted the fastest growth since December 2023 and beat market projections. On the labor side, the unemployment rate declined in March 2025 from the two-year high recorded in the previous month. These positive results were largely underpinned by ongoing stimulus policies aimed at strengthening the Chinese economy. Despite the positive data, escalating trade tensions between the US and China are clouding the outlook. Recently, US President Trump launched an investigation into new tariffs on imports of key minerals that are largely sourced from China, raising fresh concerns.

India’s annual inflation rate for March 2025 fell to 3.34% from 3.61% in the previous month, well below market expectations for an unchanged rate, and marked the fifth consecutive slowdown in inflation to its lowest level since August 2019. The decline pushed inflation further below the Reserve Bank of India’s average target of 4%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,396.63 −9.34 (−0.17%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,368.96 −155.83 (−0.38%)

DAX (DE40) 21,253.70 +298.87 (+1.43%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,249.12 +114.78 (+1.41%)

USD Index 100.15 +0.51 (+0.51%)

News feed for: 2025.04.16

  • China GDP (q/q) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • China Industrial Production (y/y) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
  • Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • Canada Monetary Policy Report at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • Canada BOC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
16 Apr

Japanese Yen Surges as Weak US Dollar Fuels Momentum

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The USD/JPY pair extended its decline on Wednesday, dropping to 142.36 amid sustained dollar weakness.

Key factors driving USD/JPY Movements

The Japanese yen’s appreciation is being propelled by broad-based US dollar softness. The greenback faced selling pressure as concerns grew over the economic fallout from proposed new US tariffs.

In a fresh escalation of trade tensions, US President Donald Trump has called for an investigation into imposing tariffs on critical mineral imports – many of which originate from China. This move has heightened investor anxiety, further weighing on the dollar.

Meanwhile, market attention is turning to the upcoming US-Japan trade talks, where Tokyo is expected to push for the complete removal of US tariffs.

On the domestic front, Japan’s latest economic data revealed an eight-month high in manufacturing sector optimism for April. However, the outlook remains cautious due to lingering risks surrounding US trade policy.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair continues to consolidate around 143.20. A downside breakout could signal a further decline towards 141.70, marking the third wave of the downtrend. Conversely, an upside breakout may trigger a technical correction towards 145.00. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero but pointing firmly upwards.

The pair has formed a broader consolidation range between 142.46 and 144.07, with a triangle pattern emerging. A breakout above this range could initiate a corrective rally towards 145.00. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this view, as its signal line – currently below 20 – is trending sharply upwards towards 80.

Conclusion

The yen’s rapid appreciation reflects both dollar weakness and cautious optimism in Japan’s manufacturing sector. However, trade policy uncertainties and technical patterns suggest continued volatility, with key levels at 141.70 (downside) and 145.00 (upside) in focus.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
15 Apr

Investors welcome tariff reliefs. Demand for safe assets is decreasing

By JustMarkets

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.78%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.79%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.57%. The US stocks rose on Monday after a volatile week as investors welcomed temporary tariff relief. Apple and Dell shares rose by 2.2% and 4%, respectively. Automakers also rose after Trump signaled a potential easing of 25% tariffs on cars, noting that companies need more time to move production to the US. Shares of Ford, GM, Stellantis, and Rivian jumped 3–6%, Tesla rose, and Toyota and Honda added more than 1%. Goldman Sachs added 1.9% after reporting strong quarterly earnings.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.85%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed 2.37% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.64%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 2.14% higher. European stocks rose sharply on Monday after US President Trump announced a temporary pause in imposing retaliatory tariffs on a range of computers and consumer electronics products. Banks and insurance companies rose as Eurozone bonds rose and yield spreads between its members narrowed, with BNP Paribas, UniCredit, Santander, and Munich Re up 6.5–4%.

Swiss producer and import prices fell by 0.1% year-on-year in March 2025, the same pace as the previous month. This marked the 23rd consecutive period of producer price deflation and the softest pace in the sequence.

WTI crude oil prices hovered near $61.5 a barrel on Tuesday amid news of a possible easing of restrictions on Iranian oil and a temporary postponement of tariffs imposed by the US Nuclear talks between the US and Iran, which have been described as “constructive,” have raised hopes of increased Iranian oil exports, putting downward pressure on prices. However, OPEC revised its 2025–26 demand growth projections downward by 100,000 bpd to reflect lower consumption due to US tariffs, although it still expects growth of 1.3 million bpd a year.

Silver prices fell to around $32 an ounce on Monday, breaking a three-day rally, as easing trade tensions reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Market attention is now focused on upcoming trade talks between the US and key partners, including Japan, India, and South Korea. Silver has gained over 8% in the previous three sessions as heightened trade tensions and concerns over the US economic outlook have caused investors to turn to alternative assets.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.18%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 2.40%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 1.34%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar climbed as high as USD 0.635, posting a fifth consecutive session of gains as improving global risk appetite fueled the rally. On the domestic front, minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) April meeting failed to provide clarity on the timing of the next interest rate change. Policymakers pointed to heightened uncertainty both at home and abroad, making future policy decisions data-driven.

The New Zealand dollar rose to around 0.590 of the US dollar on Tuesday, rising for a sixth straight session and hitting its highest level since early December 2024, as risk sentiment continued to improve. Investors await the release of key economic data this week, including the first-quarter consumer inflation report and the March trade balance, to gain a better understanding of price pressures and overall economic conditions. Following the RBNZ’s recent rate cut to 3.5%, investors are expecting further signs of a slowing economy.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,405.97 +42.61 (+0.79%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,524.79 +312.08 (+0.78%)

DAX (DE40) 20,954.83 +580.73 (+2.85%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,134.34 +170.16 (+2.14%)

USD Index 99.71 −0.40 (−0.40%)

News feed for: 2025.04.15

  • Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
← Previous Page
Next Page →