Archive for Financial News – Page 4

12 May

You can change your emotions – but it’s a 2‑step process that takes some effort

By Christian Waugh, Wake Forest University 

Picture Gigi, having a chat with her boss, when the meeting takes a sharp turn. Gigi’s boss tells her that her work has been lacking recently and that maybe she needs to stay late a couple of evenings to make it up. Surprised by her boss’s remarks, she feels the rumblings of anxiety rising in her mind and body. Psychology research suggests that Gigi feels anxious because she interpreted her boss’s remarks as something threatening that perhaps she can’t handle.

Just as Gigi starts frantically looking online for new jobs, she spies the “employee of the month” plaque on her desk from last year. She thinks to herself that maybe she can get back to her old form. She has changed her initial view of the situation (need to run away from a threat) to a new one (let’s rise to the challenge), causing her anxiety to subside. Psychologists call this process reappraisal.

Studies show that reappraising emotional situations is a powerful way to change how you feel. When you find the silver linings in bad situations or give others and yourself the benefit of the doubt, it can help you feel better.

I’m a psychology researcher who’s interested in how people change their emotions. Gigi may feel a little less anxious in the moment, but does she truly believe that she can make up the work on time and regain her former glory? My colleagues and I set out to investigate whether it’s possible to start the process of reappraisal without going all the way through with it. Are people getting the full benefit from trying to think differently about their emotions?

Reappraisal has multiple steps

When my colleague Kateri McRae and I first started thinking about what it means to fully reappraise emotional experiences, we were struck by something we saw in the emotion regulation research. Almost all of the studies treated reappraisal as a one-step process. Researchers would ask participants to “reappraise this to make yourself feel better” and then measure the effects.

However, theories about how people regulate their emotions suggest that, like any effortful psychological process, reappraisal involves multiple steps.

When you want to change how you’re feeling, you first generate a reappraisal. You bend and stretch your mind to come up with some alternative way to look at the situation. For Gigi, seeing the employee of the month plaque helped. She could have also thought of her boss’s previous compliments or how it felt to get projects done early.

After you generate a reappraisal, it might seem like you’re done, but you’re not. That alternative interpretation is fragile and must compete with your original take that’s driving your emotion. Somehow you need to strengthen that reappraisal so it can stick.

We call this implementation – when you focus and elaborate on that reappraisal to really change your mind about the situation. For Gigi, she may continue to think about all the ways that she can be a great employee so that it lodges firmly in her mind and makes her anxiety truly disappear.

We tested this idea in a study. We showed 89 undergraduate participants images of negative situations and asked them to first just generate a reappraisal of the image that could help them feel better about it. For example, they might see a picture of a frail man in a hospital bed and tell themselves that the man is getting good treatment and will be better soon. Then, we showed them the image again and asked them to focus and elaborate in their mind on their reappraisal.

Participants felt a little better after generating a reappraisal, but they felt much better after implementing it by focusing and fleshing out the details. In a follow-up study, we showed that these emotional boosts persisted when viewing the images later.

Choosing to commit to feeling better

So we experimentally showed that people reappraise their feelings in two steps. So what? That’s probably what everyone does naturally, anyway, right?

This was the next question we sought to answer. We conducted a study with 52 undergraduate participants like the earlier one, but with a twist. This time, after participants generated a reappraisal, we gave them a choice to continue the reappraisal process by implementing it or to stop the process by distracting themselves.

Participants chose to continue reappraising their emotions only about half the time. Even though reappraisal made participants feel better about the emotional images, there were still many times when they stopped the process prematurely and did not enjoy its full benefits.

In real life

These studies showing the benefits of fully following through on emotional reappraisals are lab experiments, but they have implications for how people try to help themselves feel better in real life.

First, it’s hard to intentionally change how you think about something, and people tend to dislike continuing to do hard things. Indeed, in our choice study, people opted to give up on reappraising when they weren’t feeling its benefits early on. Knowing this human tendency might give you the best chance of continuing reappraisal even when it doesn’t feel like it’s working or is hard.

Second, people often get reappraisals from others, and it’s tempting to think that hearing a new perspective is all you need. Indeed, we have unpublished data that shows that participants feel pretty good when receiving a reappraisal from someone else about their own situation. But other people cannot change your mind for you. You must do that yourself if you want to truly feel better.

Next time you’re in an unpleasant situation like Gigi’s, don’t just cursorily think that you can rise to the challenge. Really think through the situation and let your new perspective become your only one.The Conversation

About the Author:

Christian Waugh, Professor of Psychology, Wake Forest University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Financial News Psychology
12 May

The United States rejected Iran’s proposal for resolving the conflict. Oil prices surged again

By JustMarkets 

On Monday, US stock markets rose moderately. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) increased by 0.19%. The S&P 500 (US500) rose by 0.19%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.10%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ once again renewed historical highs thanks to strong growth in semiconductor stocks amid ongoing optimism around demand related to the development of artificial intelligence. Among the top gainers were major technology companies and chip manufacturers. Shares of Micron Technology rose particularly sharply, supported by expectations of a memory‑market shortage due to supply issues and labor disputes among competitors. The energy, industrial, and materials sectors also showed solid performance.

European stock indices ended the session lower for the third consecutive day amid continued pressure from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and related risks to global energy supplies. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.05%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.69%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.21%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up by 0.36%. Market pressure intensified after US President Donald Trump stated that Washington had rejected Iran’s latest counterproposal for resolving the conflict. This increased investor concerns about further escalation and prolonged disruptions to oil and gas exports from the region. The consumer‑goods sector, which is sensitive to geopolitical risks, showed the weakest performance.

WTI oil prices continued to rise, climbing toward 98 dollars per barrel after statements by US President Donald Trump that the current ceasefire between the US and Iran remains extremely unstable. This heightened market fears of possible escalation and the risk of a larger war that could lead to further disruptions in oil supplies from the region. Additional pressure came from the US refusal to accept Iran’s counterproposal for a peace settlement, which reduced expectations of a quick diplomatic resolution. The near‑complete halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to severely disrupt global supplies of crude oil, LNG, and petroleum products, supporting rising energy prices and intensifying inflation risks.

On Tuesday, silver prices (XAG) fell to 85 dollars per ounce, losing part of the gains achieved earlier in the trading session. The market came under pressure from persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which support high oil prices and increase inflation concerns. Despite the current decline, silver remains one of the leaders among precious metals. The day before, prices rose more than 7%, reaching a two‑month high. The market is supported not only by demand for safe‑haven assets but also by expectations of rising industrial consumption of silver, given its wide use in manufacturing and high‑tech industries.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) rose to 2.92 dollars per MMBtu, reaching the highest level in more than six weeks amid reduced production and the restoration of the liquefaction line at the Freeport LNG export terminal. The market is supported by the ongoing decline in production across the 48 US states. Several major producers, including EQT, have reduced output in recent weeks due to low spot prices, gradually tightening supply in the domestic market.
In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.47%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed up by 1.38%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.05%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.49%.

The Business Confidence Index from the NAB showed that Australia’s economy continues to face serious pressure from high energy prices and tight monetary policy. Although the confidence indicator in April rose slightly to 24 below zero from the record‑weak 29 below zero a month earlier, business conditions deteriorated to one of the lowest levels since 2020, indicating a slowdown in activity, reduced investment, and worsening business expectations.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,412.84 +13.91 (+0.19%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,704.47 +95.31 (+0.19%)

DAX (DE40) 24,350.28 +11.65 (+0.05%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,269.43 +36.36 (+0.36%)

USD Index 97.93 +0.03 (+0.03%)

News feed for: 2026.05.12

  • Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (LOW)
  • Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
  • German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
  • Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3) – CHF (LOW)
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
  • Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
  • US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
12 May

EUR/USD on Edge: Middle East and China in Focus

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD dipped slightly on Tuesday, retreating to 1.1762. The US dollar has returned to favour as a defensive asset after US President Donald Trump questioned the sustainability of the truce with Iran and rejected Tehran’s latest peace proposal.

Trump also plans to convene a meeting with his national security team to discuss a potential resumption of military operations and a review of plans to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

The ongoing conflict continues to keep oil prices elevated, fuelling inflationary pressures and expectations that interest rates may remain higher for longer to contain price pressures.

Investors are now turning their attention to US inflation data for April, which is expected to indicate how the Iran conflict is impacting the economy and help guide potential Federal Reserve decisions.

An additional market factor is the expected meeting later this week between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which is likely to focus on trade relations and the development of artificial intelligence.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1755, with potential downside towards 1.1688. At the same time, a move higher towards 1.1818 remains possible, with further upside to 1.1870. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached 1.1786. A decline towards 1.1740 is likely, followed by a possible rebound to 1.1760 and further upside towards 1.1818. This scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line near 20 and pointing firmly upwards.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Middle East and upcoming US–China discussions. Strong inflation data could support the US dollar, while positive diplomatic progress may ease pressure on the pair and support further euro gains.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
11 May

The US stock indices continue to set new records. China’s exports showed a sharp increase

By JustMarkets 

On Friday, the US stock indices once again renewed their record highs. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.03% (weekly result +0.39%). The S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.84% (weekly result +2.36%). The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.71% (weekly result +2.35%). The markets were supported by strong US labor‑market data: the number of new jobs in April exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged. Over the week, all major indices showed solid growth, supported by strong corporate earnings and the ongoing rally in technology stocks.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to around 1.37 per US dollar, continuing its decline after reaching late‑April highs. Pressure on the currency came from weak Canadian labor‑market data: employment unexpectedly fell, and the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in six months. This strengthened expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will focus on supporting the economy and avoid tightening monetary policy in the near future. The hawkish tone of Banxico is linked to rising inflation risks amid high energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to around 17.2 per US dollar, approaching its highest levels in nearly two years after signals from the Bank of Mexico about the end of the rate‑cutting cycle. The regulator lowered the rate by 25 basis points to 6.5%, although part of the market expected more aggressive easing. At the same time, the central bank made it clear that further rate cuts are unlikely in the near future.

On Friday, European stock markets continued to decline for the second session in a row amid a new wave of tensions between the US and Iran, which increased concerns about disruptions to Europe’s energy supplies. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.32% (weekly result +0.26%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 1.09% (weekly result -0.12%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.95% (weekly result +0.34%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down by 0.43% (weekly result -1.38%). Key European indices finished in negative territory as reports of attacks on tankers and military vessels undermined investor hopes for a quick diplomatic resolution of the conflict.

On Friday, WTI oil prices remained around $95 per barrel, showing almost no change, as new clashes between the US and Iran increased doubts about the durability of the current ceasefire and reduced expectations of a quick diplomatic settlement. Despite this, oil still fell by about 7% for the week. The main factor for the market remains the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, which has been operating under severe restrictions since late February, disrupting global oil supplies and intensifying the supply deficit.

Platinum prices (XPT) held above $2000 per ounce, remaining near their highest levels since late April, as the ongoing supply deficit continued to support the market despite rising inflation risks due to renewed tensions in the Middle East. Clashes between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz once again cast doubt on the stability of the current ceasefire and increased concerns about disruptions to energy supplies.

In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.19% (weekly result +3.60%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed down by 0.90% (weekly result -0.88%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.87% (weekly result +0.98%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) dropped by 1.51% (weekly result +0.22%).
On Monday, the offshore yuan was holding at 6.79 per dollar, which is the strongest level for the Chinese currency since February 2023. The market is positively assessing the resilience of China’s economy: despite the logistics crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, exports in April surged by 14.1% to a record 359.44 billion dollars, while imports, driven by strong domestic demand and semiconductor purchases, jumped by 25.3%. Domestic indicators also signal a revival – consumer inflation (CPI) reached 1.2%, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained in positive territory at 2.8%, indicating a recovery in industrial activity. All global market attention is now focused on Beijing, where the Donald Trump-Xi Jinping summit will take place on May 14-15. Investors expect the leaders to agree on a “roadmap” for unblocking the Strait of Hormuz, discuss the status of Taiwan, and lay the foundation for a new trade agreement that may include a dialogue on AI security.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthened again to a two‑month high near 0.596 US dollars, recovering after a decline in the previous session. Employment statistics in New Zealand, published earlier, did not give markets a clear signal and barely changed rate expectations. Investors still assess the probability of a near‑term rate hike as moderate, although a July tightening is already priced in due to rising inflation risks from expensive energy.
In Australia, markets currently assess the probability of a June rate hike by the Reserve Bank (RBA) as low after a series of previous increases. At the same time, expectations of further tightening by the end of the summer remain fairly high, and the projected peak rate is almost fully priced in. The Australian dollar held around 0.72 US dollars after declining in the previous session.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,398.93 +61.82 (+0.84%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,609.16 +12.19 (+0.03%)

DAX (DE40) 24,338.63 −324.98 (−1.32%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,233.07 −43.88 (−0.43%)

USD Index 97.84 −0.22 (−0.23%)

News feed for: 2026.05.11

  • China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (HIGH)
  • China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (HIGH)
  • Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) HIGH – NOK (MED)
  • US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
10 May

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Gold

By InvestMacro

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold with a gain of 3,732 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Steel (-849 contracts), Platinum (-765 contracts), Copper (-432 contracts), Silver (-268 contracts) and with Palladium (-12 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold Bets stable around +160,000 net contracts

Highlighting the Metals markets today: This week saw speculator bets in Gold rise very modestly by a little under +4,000 net contracts. Gold positioning has stabilized right around the +160,000 to +165,000 net contract standing over the past 15 or so weeks. Previously, Gold bullish contracts had been over 200,000 net contracts week in and week out before falling lower in late January.

Open interest levels for Gold have fallen off dramatically and are around 360,000 contracts this week. The average open interest contracts since the beginning of 2025 have been around 460,000 contracts, illustrating that the market interest has cooled off in these past few months.

The Gold’s futures price closed this week around the $4,730 level and is still in a long-term strong uptrend. It has bounced back by almost 15% from the recent fall in March to the $4,100 level.

Silver leads the Metals markets price performance.

The last five days saw Silver come in with the biggest return in price performance for the overall Metals market. Silver rose by 6.08% for the week and has now notched a 10.86% increase over the past 30 days. Copper came in second with a 4.95% rise on the week and has been higher by 12.77% over the past 30 days.

Gold comes in third with a 2.38% gain on the week and has been just a bit higher at a 1.09% return over the past 30 days.

Platinum followed with a 1.96% gain this week, and Steel rounded out the weekly gainers with a 1.74% rise.

On the downside, Palladium dipped by -3.55%. Palladium is now also down by -0.24% over the past 30 days and has fallen by -26.62% in the past 90 days.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (92 percent) and Steel (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (82.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (27 percent) and Gold (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.1 percent)
Silver (27.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.5 percent)
Copper (91.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (92.2 percent)
Platinum (55.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (57.4 percent)
Palladium (82.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (82.2 percent)
Steel (84.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (88.7 percent)

 

Copper & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (24 percent) and Platinum (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Gold (-2.1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-2.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-0.1 percent)
Silver (-1.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.8 percent)
Copper (23.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (14.2 percent)
Platinum (4.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (4.1 percent)
Palladium (-1.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-8.4 percent)
Steel (-15.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 163,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 3,732 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 159,571 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.615.813.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.269.93.7
– Net Position:163,303-198,93535,632
– Gross Longs:211,81458,23049,252
– Gross Shorts:48,511257,16513,620
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.2 to 13.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.756.570.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.12.00.4

 

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,892 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,160 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.026.926.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.468.79.5
– Net Position:23,892-40,53516,643
– Gross Longs:32,96526,09425,811
– Gross Shorts:9,07366,6299,168
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.4 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.072.444.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.3-0.45.7

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 62,849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,281 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.435.67.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.466.63.7
– Net Position:62,849-72,0179,168
– Gross Longs:96,26182,82917,854
– Gross Shorts:33,412154,8468,686
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.88.461.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.6-22.22.1

 

Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,550 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.029.113.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.666.55.4
– Net Position:17,785-22,6514,866
– Gross Longs:26,66817,6598,130
– Gross Shorts:8,88340,3103,264
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.548.154.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.0-2.3-7.9

 

Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -12 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,464 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.039.314.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.334.510.0
– Net Position:-1,476775701
– Gross Longs:6,4026,2892,307
– Gross Shorts:7,8785,5141,606
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.222.444.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.54.8-19.1

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,066 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.564.31.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.494.60.2
– Net Position:11,217-11,631414
– Gross Longs:12,51624,734483
– Gross Shorts:1,29936,36569
– Long to Short Ratio:9.6 to 10.7 to 17.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.815.189.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.215.1-8.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
10 May

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by 5-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

By InvestMacro

Bonds Market Open Interest Comparison
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

Bonds Market Net Speculators Positions
The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (100,106 contracts) with the Fed Funds (45,127 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (35,934 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (34,850 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (23,868 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-347,436 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-97,991 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-77,320 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-59,287 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The US Treasury Bond leads Bond market price performances this week.

In the major Bond markets for the US, the US Treasury Bond saw the biggest uptick this week with a 0.53% increase. The 10-Year Note came in second with a 0.17% edge higher, followed by the Five-Year Bond, which notched up by 0.06%. The One-Month SOFR and the Three-Month SOFR markets were both virtually unchanged but edged up by 0.01%.

The Fed Funds were a minuscule tick lower with a -0.01% decline.

Bonds Data:

Bonds Market Speculators Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra 10-Year Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

Bonds Market Strength Index Comparison
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (80 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (74 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The 5-Year Bonds (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the SOFR 3-Months (1.7 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the US Treasury Bonds (23 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (39 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (50 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (60.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (53.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (71.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (66.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (39.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (36.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (79.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (100.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (23.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (43.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (73.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (60.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (50.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (67.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (1.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (20.0 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Bonds Market Trend Index Comparison
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) and the Fed Funds (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bond (-62.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-35 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (8.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (1.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-4.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-25.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (14.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (-20.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-28.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (46.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-62.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-42.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (7.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-4.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (22.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-35.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-10.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 45,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,312 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.663.92.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.666.71.7
– Net Position:30,815-43,82313,008
– Gross Longs:232,0661,019,08740,483
– Gross Shorts:201,2511,062,91027,475
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.338.671.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.9-8.7-2.5

 

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,100,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -347,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -753,019 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.262.10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.953.50.4
– Net Position:-1,100,4551,102,960-2,505
– Gross Longs:1,813,6187,914,41046,774
– Gross Shorts:2,914,0736,811,45049,279
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.799.237.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-35.536.0-5.4

 

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

SOFR 1-Month Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -158,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -97,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,204 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.867.80.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.554.10.1
– Net Position:-158,195158,16035
– Gross Longs:182,424781,5981,383
– Gross Shorts:340,619623,4381,348
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.149.866.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.84.80.3

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,673,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 35,934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,709,263 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.580.54.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.747.03.1
– Net Position:-1,673,3291,590,30983,020
– Gross Longs:497,3993,820,890228,341
– Gross Shorts:2,170,7282,230,581145,321
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.992.110.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.03.90.4

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,421,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 100,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,521,405 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.680.56.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.160.15.3
– Net Position:-1,421,2991,352,39068,909
– Gross Longs:636,5745,331,093419,738
– Gross Shorts:2,057,8733,978,703350,829
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.729.726.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.5-3.512.1

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -815,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 23,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -839,137 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.477.57.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.663.56.5
– Net Position:-815,269747,34367,926
– Gross Longs:610,5434,158,508418,672
– Gross Shorts:1,425,8123,411,165350,746
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.365.845.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.720.712.8

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -105,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -77,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,840 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.481.38.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.871.613.6
– Net Position:-105,160234,926-129,766
– Gross Longs:228,2361,968,305200,190
– Gross Shorts:333,3961,733,379329,956
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.737.25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.3-9.5-29.6

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -172,942 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -59,287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -113,655 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.976.312.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.471.28.5
– Net Position:-172,94293,02479,918
– Gross Longs:181,1281,395,908234,966
– Gross Shorts:354,0701,302,884155,048
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.269.936.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-62.548.9-7.7

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -259,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 34,850 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -294,285 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.985.47.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.273.78.2
– Net Position:-259,435268,886-9,451
– Gross Longs:136,6941,964,862179,461
– Gross Shorts:396,1291,695,976188,912
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.945.15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.44.3-31.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News
10 May

COT Energy Charts: Speculators push Brent Crude Oil Bearish Bets to lowest since October

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI Energy Futures COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil & Gasoline

Speculators Nets Energy Futures COT Chart
The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil (16,333 contracts) with Gasoline (2,677 contracts) and Heating Oil (2,022 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-13,125 contracts), Bloomberg Index (-1,552 contracts) and Natural Gas (-373 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Brent Crude Oil Bearish Bets drop to lowest since October

Highlighting Energy futures markets this week is Brent Crude Oil. This market saw a jump by over 16,000 speculative net contracts this week and this market has seen gains in seven out of the past 10 weeks. The Brent Crude Oil futures market traditionally has a negative net large speculator standing due to a lot of hedging activity. This week, however, the market is close to an almost neutral overall position with a total of -9,224 net contracts. This is the least bearish level for Brent Crude Oil since October 2025. Typically, when bets have fallen this low, the oil price is also low. The last two times the net position has been this low, the Brent Crude Oil price has been trading around $60 per barrel. But due to the Iran war, the oil price is currently over $100 per barrel with perhaps more risk to the upside at the moment.

Energy market prices were down across the board this week.

In the Energy markets, In the Energy markets price performances, we saw lower markets all across the board for the week. Heating Oil dipped by -1.43%, followed by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which fell by -1.63%.

Gasoline was lower by over 2% this week with a -2.02% decline. Natural Gas was also lower by -2.68%. Brent Oil fell by -6.58%, while WTI Crude Oil was the biggest negative returner on the week with a -7.32% decrease.

Energy Data:

Speculators Table Energy Futures COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Brent Oil & Gasoline

Speculators Strength Energy Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Brent Oil (68.0 percent) and Gasoline (52.2 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, the Bloomberg Index (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Natural Gas (25.5 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (44.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (49.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (68.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (44.7 percent)
Natural Gas (25.5 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (25.8 percent)
Gasoline (52.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (49.2 percent)
Heating Oil (50.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (48.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (1.6 percent)

 

Brent Oil & Natural Gas top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Energy Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Brent Oil (11.9 percent) and Natural Gas (3.8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

The Bloomberg Index (-64.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with WTI Crude Oil (-17.7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-17.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-8.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (11.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-4.3 percent)
Natural Gas (3.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (7.5 percent)
Gasoline (-12.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-22.5 percent)
Heating Oil (-5.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-15.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-64.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-62.5 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 178,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -13,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 191,911 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.545.13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.855.12.5
– Net Position:178,786-206,15027,364
– Gross Longs:381,542933,44279,154
– Gross Shorts:202,7561,139,59251,790
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.853.855.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.718.6-11.9

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 16,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,557 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.932.04.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.929.32.8
– Net Position:-9,2246,2033,021
– Gross Longs:71,48574,0799,396
– Gross Shorts:80,70967,8766,375
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.028.681.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.9-14.111.3

 

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -166,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -166,273 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.635.53.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.826.12.6
– Net Position:-166,646153,15013,496
– Gross Longs:237,674578,70855,616
– Gross Shorts:404,320425,55842,120
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.579.337.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.80.3-16.1

 

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 58,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lift of 2,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,216 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.747.88.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.871.43.8
– Net Position:58,893-73,38214,489
– Gross Longs:83,248149,32926,330
– Gross Shorts:24,355222,71111,841
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.7 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.238.583.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.110.14.2

 

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,689 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lift of 2,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,667 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.447.819.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.059.99.2
– Net Position:5,689-29,53723,848
– Gross Longs:42,178115,95646,091
– Gross Shorts:36,489145,49322,243
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.938.483.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.10.110.4

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -76,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,084 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.754.50.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:75.424.00.0
– Net Position:-76,63676,162474
– Gross Longs:111,634136,162527
– Gross Shorts:188,27060,00053
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.3 to 19.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.063.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-64.964.91.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Energy Financial News
10 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Corn Speculator Bets surge higher for 3rd Week to 1-Year High

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI Softs
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Sugar

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (92,644 contracts) with Sugar (48,432 contracts), Soybeans (38,259 contracts), Cotton (19,741 contracts), Cocoa (3,409 contracts) and Live Cattle (3,381 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-17,534 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-9,721 contracts), Soybean Meal (-8,387 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,925 contracts) and Coffee (2,599 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Corn Speculator Bets surge higher for 3rd Week to 1-Year High

Highlighting the Soft Commodities market this week is Corn, which has been on a spectacular run in speculator positioning. This week, Corn speculator bets jumped by over 92,000 contracts and rose for a third consecutive week. The Corn speculator position has now increased in eight out of the last 11 weeks and has added a whopping +441,219 contracts to its overall standing in just those 11 weeks. This recent climb higher has seen the overall speculator position from a total of -7,835 net contracts on February 17th to this week’s net speculator standing of 433,384 net contracts — marking the highest level for Corn bets in over a year.

Corn’s futures price has been on a steady uptrend since a recent bottom in August of 2025. Since then, the Corn price has been up by roughly 25% and is trading right below its 200-weekly moving average. Corn’s overall price is still down by roughly 70% since 2022, when the height of the Russian-Ukraine War saw the Corn price go parabolic and reach its highest level in 10 years.

Cocoa leads Soft Commodities price performances this week.

Leading the price performances for the Soft Commodities on the week was Cocoa, which had a very strong week this week and was only one of two Soft Commodities markets that saw gaining returns this week. Cocoa jumped by 17.87% over the past five days and gained for a third consecutive week. Cocoa’s overall price over the past few years has taken a sharp fall after an incredible run-up that brought the Cocoa future prices over 12,000 in late 2024. Currently, Cocoa’s price has fallen by over 60% since that timeframe but has been rebounding since March.

Next up, Cotton was the only other gainer on the week with a 0.76% gain. On the downside, Soybeans dipped by a virtually unchanged amount of -0.14%, followed by Soybean Meal, which also dipped by -0.16%. Wheat fell by over a percent with a -1.35% decline, followed by Live Cattle, which dipped by -1.51%, while Soybean Oil fell by a similar -1.54%. Corn was next up and fell lower this week with -1.72%. Sugar followed suit with a -1.74% decline, while Lean Hogs dropped by -2.62% on the week. Coffee was the biggest negative returner this week with a -4.26% shortfall.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil & Cotton

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (99 percent) and Cotton (99 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (95 percent), Corn (95 percent) and Soybean Meal (93 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (30 percent) and Lean Hogs (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (95.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (82.6 percent)
Sugar (30.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.8 percent)
Coffee (50.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (48.3 percent)
Soybeans (95.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (86.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (98.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (100.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (92.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (96.2 percent)
Live Cattle (80.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (76.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (30.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (37.5 percent)
Cotton (99.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (87.3 percent)
Cocoa (3.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.0 percent)
Wheat (85.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (100.0 percent)

Cotton, Live Cattle & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (47 percent), Soybean Oil (21 percent) and Live Cattle (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (8 percent) and Soybeans (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-0.1 percent) following next with a lower trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (7.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.9 percent)
Sugar (0.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (12.1 percent)
Coffee (2.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (6.5 percent)
Soybeans (3.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (20.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (17.0 percent)
Live Cattle (21.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (22.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-29.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-33.6 percent)
Cotton (46.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (38.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-5.2 percent)
Wheat (0.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (22.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 433,384 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 92,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 340,740 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.539.47.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.858.710.4
– Net Position:433,384-368,848-64,536
– Gross Longs:601,877752,467133,696
– Gross Shorts:168,4931,121,315198,232
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.21.331.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.9-8.3-4.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -95,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 48,432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -143,951 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.549.78.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.340.97.7
– Net Position:-95,51984,97410,545
– Gross Longs:247,159481,68685,327
– Gross Shorts:342,678396,71274,782
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.069.345.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.11.5-11.1

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 2,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,026 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.635.44.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.951.34.3
– Net Position:27,625-28,056431
– Gross Longs:55,70362,2597,936
– Gross Shorts:28,07890,3157,505
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.951.022.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.2-1.7-7.9

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 232,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 38,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,939 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.243.45.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.364.48.3
– Net Position:232,198-204,545-27,653
– Gross Longs:303,880423,32253,507
– Gross Shorts:71,682627,86781,160
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.15.825.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.8-5.117.2

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 168,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -2,925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,812 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.340.95.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.466.83.9
– Net Position:168,887-182,70613,819
– Gross Longs:220,821288,80941,182
– Gross Shorts:51,934471,51527,363
– Long to Short Ratio:4.3 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.80.287.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.9-20.22.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 134,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -8,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 143,101 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.041.68.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.768.94.5
– Net Position:134,714-157,28922,575
– Gross Longs:190,466239,91048,705
– Gross Shorts:55,752397,19926,130
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.76.770.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.2-2.7-6.1

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 103,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 3,381 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,338 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.928.07.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.152.711.7
– Net Position:103,719-89,036-14,683
– Gross Longs:165,391100,64627,527
– Gross Shorts:61,672189,68242,210
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.213.946.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.4-24.0-6.1

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -9,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,172 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.139.27.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.140.28.4
– Net Position:6,451-2,889-3,562
– Gross Longs:89,062124,19122,980
– Gross Shorts:82,611127,08026,542
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.571.657.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.928.427.3

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 100,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 19,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,941 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.330.36.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.064.92.5
– Net Position:100,682-114,93114,249
– Gross Longs:144,088100,80522,683
– Gross Shorts:43,406215,7368,434
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.5 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.00.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:46.7-46.943.6

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 3,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,643 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.251.25.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.342.14.7
– Net Position:-20,23418,2252,009
– Gross Longs:46,562102,50611,501
– Gross Shorts:66,79684,2819,492
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.096.546.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.1-1.416.3

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,668 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -17,534 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 866 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.731.68.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.529.76.8
– Net Position:-16,6688,4258,243
– Gross Longs:128,830137,09837,730
– Gross Shorts:145,498128,67329,487
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.39.9100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.4-6.943.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

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The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
08 May

The Central Bank of Norway unexpectedly raised the interest rate. Natural gas prices jumped after storage data

By JustMarkets 

On Thursday, the US stock indices corrected downward after recently updating record highs. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.63%. The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.38%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.13%. Amid overall caution, the technology sector came under pressure: shares of Amazon and several major chipmakers declined after strong previous gains.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened against the US currency, retreating from recent multi‑week highs amid expectations of a more dovish policy from the Bank of Canada and falling oil prices. Additional pressure on the Canadian currency came from weak economic data. The latest GDP statistics indicated a slowdown in economic growth after the start of the conflict in the Middle East, which strengthened expectations of a more cautious stance from the central bank.

The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.50%. This is the lowest level since April 2022. The decision, made by a majority vote (3 to 2), appears to mark the end of the monetary‑policy easing cycle that began in March 2024. The main reason for the cut was the contraction of the Mexican economy in the first quarter of 2026. The regulator noted that the slowdown in business activity led to increased idle capacity and, as a result, weakened demand‑driven inflationary pressure. At the same time, the central bank made it clear that the rate‑cutting period is over: amid global geopolitical instability and trade disputes, keeping the rate at 6.50% in the foreseeable future is considered the most appropriate step.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.63%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 1.17%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.25%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session down by 1.55%.

The Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) unexpectedly raised the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, although the market mostly expected it to remain unchanged. The regulator explained the decision by stating that inflation remains too high and may stay elevated longer due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The bank emphasized that tightening policy is necessary to bring inflation back to target within a reasonable timeframe. According to officials, a prolonged period of high prices could anchor inflation expectations among businesses and households, complicating future efforts to control price growth.

Sweden’s Riksbank kept the key rate unchanged at 1.75% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with market expectations. The regulator noted that the current rate level allows for flexible responses to further changes in the economic situation and, if necessary, adjustments to monetary policy to achieve the inflation target. Central bank representatives indicated that risks of accelerating inflation due to the Middle East conflict have increased, but actual price growth remains below target, and recent economic data came in weaker than the March expectations.

On Thursday, WTI oil prices partially recovered after a sharp decline to around $96 per barrel, as markets continued to assess the prospects of supply restoration from Gulf countries. Optimistic statements by Donald Trump about possible progress in negotiations earlier triggered a noticeable drop in oil prices. However, downward pressure on prices remained limited, as market participants doubt a quick recovery of global supply. Another factor is the caution of insurance companies regarding tankers passing through the region after recent attacks. Against this backdrop, supply disruptions have already led to a significant reduction in fuel inventories in the US, where gasoline and distillate reserves have been declining for several weeks in a row.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) rose more than 2%, approaching $2.79 per MMBtu, after storage data showed a weaker‑than‑expected increase. The volume of gas injected into storage came in below both analyst projections and last year’s levels, as well as below multi‑year averages. The market is also factoring in seasonal cooling‑demand growth, which is gradually beginning to outweigh heating needs.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) surged by 5.58% after a long banking holiday, China’s FTSE China A50 closed slightly higher by 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.57%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) jumped by 0.96%.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,337.11 −28.01 (−0.38%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,596.97 −313.62 (−0.63%)

DAX (DE40) 24,663.61 −255.08 (−1.02%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,276.95 −161.71 (−1.55%)

USD Index 98.17 +0.15 (+0.15%)

News feed for: 2026.05.08

  • Japan Average Cash Earnings (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
  • Germany Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
  • Germany Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
  • UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 15:20 (GMT+3) – GBP (LOW)
  • Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (HIGH)
  • US Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)
  • US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)
  • US Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
08 May

Yen Stabilises, but Intervention Risks Remain

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY is holding near 156.83 on Friday. Despite heightened volatility in recent sessions, the yen is set to end the week broadly unchanged. Fears of intervention and Tokyo’s firm rhetoric have failed to support a sustained strengthening of the currency.

Japanese authorities have stated that they are not constrained by the frequency of their interventions in the foreign exchange market and remain in constant contact with the US. Earlier, the yen rose sharply amid suspected interventions on 30 April and 6 May, but there was no official confirmation of these actions.

Domestic data has been stronger. Real wages rose for the third consecutive month, supporting expectations of further tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Nevertheless, the external backdrop remains negative. A stronger dollar and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to weigh on the yen.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around 156.50 and is moving higher towards 157.39. A test of this level is likely, followed by a possible pullback to 156.50 before a further move higher towards 157.90. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating that bullish momentum is building.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has reached 156.95 and is now pulling back towards 156.50. A rebound towards 157.00 may follow, with a possible extension to 157.39. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this view, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20, indicating that short-term downside pressure remains.

Conclusion

The yen has stabilised near 156.83 against the dollar, but intervention risks persist despite Tokyo’s verbal warnings. Domestic wage growth supports BoJ tightening expectations, yet external factors such as a strong dollar and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the currency. Technically, a short-term rise to 157.39 may be followed by a pullback to 156.50 before any further upside develops.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

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