Financial News :: Page 4

Archive for Financial News – Page 4

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by 2-Year, SOFR 3M & 5-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year, SOFR 3M & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (103,531 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (83,873 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (64,833 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (2,508 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-53,326 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-35,465 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-17,413 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-16,588 contracts) and the SOFR 1-Month (-14,134 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Treasury Bond leads Bond Market Price Performances this week

In the major US Bond markets this week, the long US Treasury Bond led the increases with a 0.34% rise over the past five days. This was followed by the 10-Year Note, which advanced by 0.30%. The Fed Funds was higher by 0.28%, while the Five-Year Bond advanced by 0.21%, and the Two-Year Bond was up by 0.11%.

The One-Month SOFR was unchanged on the week, while the Three-Month SOFR showed a decline by -0.17% for this week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by 5-Year Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (83 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (70 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (69 percent) lead the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the Fed Funds (0.0 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores was the US Treasury Bonds (21 percent) .

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (0.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (7.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (69.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (57.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (82.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (78.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (37.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (39.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (69.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (68.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (21.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (33.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (49.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (55.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (39.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (42.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (5.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (3.6 percent)

2-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 2-Year Bonds (23 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-15 percent) and Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-38.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-34.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (22.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-0.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-2.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-0.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (9.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-8.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-6.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (19.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-13.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-18.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-5.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-0.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-14.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-28.5 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -407,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -53,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -354,253 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	67.3	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	50.1	1.3
– Net Position:	-407,579	392,205	15,374
– Gross Longs:	240,608	1,532,036	44,061
– Gross Shorts:	648,187	1,139,831	28,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	75.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.3	38.2	8.9

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,692,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 83,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,775,954 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	65.8	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	45.4	0.4
– Net Position:	-2,692,081	2,690,271	1,810
– Gross Longs:	1,532,427	8,673,437	54,490
– Gross Shorts:	4,224,508	5,983,166	52,680
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.9	94.1	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.8	13.1	59.6

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -218,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -14,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -204,447 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	65.2	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	50.3	0.1
– Net Position:	-218,581	219,474	-893
– Gross Longs:	208,338	959,285	988
– Gross Shorts:	426,919	739,811	1,881
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.6	60.5	65.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	5.8	-2.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,157,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 103,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,261,008 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	75.7	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.1	51.4	3.4
– Net Position:	-1,157,477	1,084,260	73,217
– Gross Longs:	541,950	3,381,563	225,820
– Gross Shorts:	1,699,427	2,297,303	152,603
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.6	34.0	19.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.9	-26.5	19.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,294,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 64,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,359,116 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	82.9	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	62.3	6.2
– Net Position:	-1,294,283	1,278,834	15,449
– Gross Longs:	510,396	5,126,861	401,135
– Gross Shorts:	1,804,679	3,848,027	385,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.7	24.4	16.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-4.5	-0.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -831,675 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -17,413 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -814,262 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	80.4	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	65.2	6.8
– Net Position:	-831,675	803,589	28,086
– Gross Longs:	534,555	4,248,102	389,823
– Gross Shorts:	1,366,230	3,444,513	361,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.3	73.7	16.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	-2.6	6.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -145,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 2,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,144 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	81.4	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	72.2	12.4
– Net Position:	-145,636	226,642	-81,006
– Gross Longs:	206,497	1,995,015	223,193
– Gross Shorts:	352,133	1,768,373	304,199
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.0	35.0	43.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-9.7	-0.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -179,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -35,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -143,591 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	73.9	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	69.8	7.6
– Net Position:	-179,056	76,451	102,605
– Gross Longs:	207,048	1,362,467	242,779
– Gross Shorts:	386,104	1,286,016	140,174
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.1	65.7	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	1.0	10.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -324,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -16,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -307,819 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	84.8	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	73.3	7.0
– Net Position:	-324,407	283,270	41,137
– Gross Longs:	138,047	2,083,553	212,642
– Gross Shorts:	462,454	1,800,283	171,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.5	50.6	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	-4.9	50.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

18 Jul

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Brent Oil & Heating Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil & Heating Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil (3,225 contracts) with Heating Oil (3,214 contracts) and the Bloomberg Index (1,701 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-13,305 contracts), WTI Crude (-13,066 contracts) and Gasoline (-239 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Brent Oil, WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline lead Energy Market Price Performances

In the Energy markets this week, all of the six markets that we cover were higher on the week. Leading the gains was Brent Oil, which jumped by 12.07% and was followed by WTI Crude Oil, which advanced by a similar 11.65%. Next up, Gasoline advanced by 11.08% on the week.

Heating Oil was higher by 8.45%, while the Bloomberg Commodity Index was above a 4% gain with a 4.35% rise. Rounding out the gainers with a small rise was Natural Gas, which edged up by 0.03%.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Bloomberg Index

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Heating Oil (54.6 percent) and Bloomberg Index (53.1 percent) lead the energy markets this week. Gasoline (51.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, WTI Crude (7.4 percent) and Natural Gas (17.9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (7.4 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (11.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (45.4 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (40.4 percent)
Natural Gas (17.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (26.4 percent)
Gasoline (51.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (51.4 percent)
Heating Oil (54.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (50.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (53.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (51.6 percent)

Bloomberg Index tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bloomberg Index (39.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. Heating Oil (5.8 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude (-30.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Brent Oil (-4.8 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-30.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-27.5 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-4.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (12.9 percent)
Natural Gas (4.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (24.3 percent)
Gasoline (2.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (4.0 percent)
Heating Oil (5.8 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (3.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (39.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (38.0 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 62,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -13,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,749 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	49.2	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	53.8	2.7
– Net Position:	62,683	-85,088	22,405
– Gross Longs:	302,429	923,364	72,706
– Gross Shorts:	239,746	1,008,452	50,301
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.4	90.8	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.0	31.5	-19.4

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -21,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 3,225 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,649 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	35.1	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	27.7	2.4
– Net Position:	-21,424	18,505	2,919
– Gross Longs:	52,462	86,863	8,741
– Gross Shorts:	73,886	68,358	5,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	49.7	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	9.5	-29.5

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -178,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -13,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,307 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	32.2	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	22.3	2.6
– Net Position:	-178,612	165,528	13,084
– Gross Longs:	287,255	536,312	56,425
– Gross Shorts:	465,867	370,784	43,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.9	84.3	36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-5.4	2.2

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 57,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -239 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,224 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	43.4	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	64.6	4.4
– Net Position:	57,985	-68,653	10,668
– Gross Longs:	97,460	140,933	25,057
– Gross Shorts:	39,475	209,586	14,389
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.2	43.2	66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-1.8	-2.6

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 8,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 3,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,262 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	43.5	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	55.8	10.2
– Net Position:	8,476	-32,395	23,919
– Gross Longs:	49,219	114,396	50,855
– Gross Shorts:	40,743	146,791	26,936
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.6	35.7	83.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-1.2	-8.7

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -30,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 1,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,896 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.2	48.8	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.5	32.7	0.0
– Net Position:	-30,195	29,772	423
– Gross Longs:	92,871	90,259	436
– Gross Shorts:	123,066	60,487	13
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	33.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	46.9	79.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.5	-39.4	-1.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Energy Financial News

18 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Wheat, Corn & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat, Corn & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (33,391 contracts) with Corn (30,483 contracts), Soybean Meal (24,649 contracts), Soybeans (12,596 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,577 contracts), Cotton (7,019 contracts), Cocoa (2,145 contracts) and Coffee (2,204 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-11,963 contracts) with Sugar (-2,872 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-807 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Wheat leads Soft Commodities Price Performances this week

The top market this week in the Soft Commodities price performances was Wheat, which rose by a strong 7.17% over the past five days. Soybean Oil comes in next with a 2.84% rise on the week, while Lean Hogs was up by 2.68%.

Soybeans had a modest 0.52% gain on the week, and Corn rounded out the gainers with a 0.16% increase.

On the downside, Sugar dipped by -0.27%, followed by Soybean Meal, which fell by a similar -0.30%. Cotton dropped by more than -2.5% with a -2.88% decline, while Live Cattle dropped by -4.27%, and Coffee fell by -4.93% over the past five days.

The biggest decliner on the week was Cocoa, which saw a reduction by -6.08%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cotton & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (96 percent) and Wheat (86 percent) currently lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (74 percent), Soybeans (71 percent) and Soybean Meal (71 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Cocoa (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (38 percent) and the Live Cattle (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (54.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (50.0 percent)
Sugar (38.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (39.0 percent)
Coffee (51.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (48.9 percent)
Soybeans (71.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (68.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (73.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (68.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (70.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (60.5 percent)
Live Cattle (46.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (58.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.5 percent)
Cotton (95.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (91.7 percent)
Cocoa (11.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.8 percent)
Wheat (85.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (57.5 percent)

Wheat & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (21 percent) and Coffee (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (9 percent), Cocoa (6 percent) and Cotton (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-17 percent), Soybean Oil (-17 percent) and Live Cattle (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-9.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-27.4 percent)
Sugar (9.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.1 percent)
Coffee (14.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (9.0 percent)
Soybeans (-13.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-20.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-16.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-18.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-28.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-37.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-5.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-24.2 percent)
Cotton (6.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.4 percent)
Cocoa (6.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (3.1 percent)
Wheat (20.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-33.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 131,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 30,483 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,980 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	41.2	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	46.8	10.4
– Net Position:	131,463	-94,976	-36,487
– Gross Longs:	482,223	703,349	140,668
– Gross Shorts:	350,760	798,325	177,155
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	42.8	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	2.5	44.2

SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,273 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	47.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	41.9	7.1
– Net Position:	-62,145	58,263	3,882
– Gross Longs:	270,018	477,149	74,460
– Gross Shorts:	332,163	418,886	70,578
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	63.2	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-8.6	4.3

COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,623 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	38.2	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	55.9	3.3
– Net Position:	27,827	-29,450	1,623
– Gross Longs:	53,913	63,817	7,156
– Gross Shorts:	26,086	93,267	5,533
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	49.7	43.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-15.5	26.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 125,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 12,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,807 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	49.8	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	59.8	7.0
– Net Position:	125,403	-101,014	-24,389
– Gross Longs:	220,823	500,119	46,389
– Gross Shorts:	95,420	601,133	70,778
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	29.5	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	14.6	-4.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 107,243 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 12,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,666 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	47.4	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	66.0	4.0
– Net Position:	107,243	-118,359	11,116
– Gross Longs:	159,949	302,751	36,891
– Gross Shorts:	52,706	421,110	25,775
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	25.1	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	14.6	17.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 87,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 24,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,388 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	43.4	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	62.0	4.5
– Net Position:	87,037	-111,252	24,215
– Gross Longs:	170,509	260,244	51,424
– Gross Shorts:	83,472	371,496	27,209
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.5	29.2	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.0	26.0	27.4

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 69,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -11,963 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,668 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.2	33.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	53.1	11.6
– Net Position:	69,705	-61,324	-8,381
– Gross Longs:	122,352	104,345	27,905
– Gross Shorts:	52,647	165,669	36,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	46.0	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	6.7	36.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -65,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,421 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	43.7	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.8	21.5	7.1
– Net Position:	-65,228	63,153	2,075
– Gross Longs:	62,355	124,457	22,248
– Gross Shorts:	127,583	61,304	20,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	99.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.7	14.7	31.4

COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 95,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 7,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,428 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	35.1	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	67.8	2.5
– Net Position:	95,447	-105,278	9,831
– Gross Longs:	134,337	113,271	17,856
– Gross Shorts:	38,890	218,549	8,025
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.9	6.4	72.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-6.4	9.1

COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 2,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,729 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	50.2	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	45.7	4.3
– Net Position:	-10,584	9,170	1,414
– Gross Longs:	33,972	102,317	10,134
– Gross Shorts:	44,556	93,147	8,720
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.7	86.9	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-6.9	12.6

WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 33,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,730 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	39.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	36.3	7.9
– Net Position:	-16,339	15,634	705
– Gross Longs:	117,880	171,307	34,741
– Gross Shorts:	134,219	155,673	34,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.5	16.2	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-19.7	-9.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

16 Jul

The Bank of Canada kept its interest rate unchanged. Platinum prices reached a three‑week high

By JustMarkets

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.29%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.38%. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed Wednesday in the green at 0.62%. On Wednesday, the US stock market showed mixed dynamics: optimism about slowing inflation, supported by Producer‑price Index data, helped the S&P 500 and Dow Jones close higher. The statistics confirmed moderate price pressure, reducing expectations of further Fed rate hikes and allowing the market to ignore geopolitical risks linked to energy commodities.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened to a one‑month high, reaching 1.40 per US dollar after the Bank of Canada decided to keep its key rate at 2.25%. The regulator adopted a fairly hawkish stance, pointing to signs of economic recovery and raising inflation expectations for the current year. This rhetoric convinced investors that borrowing costs will remain high for an extended period, supporting the national currency. An additional factor was external conditions, particularly the weakening of the US dollar following US producer‑price data that came in below expectations.

European indices mostly declined on Wednesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.59%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.19%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.42%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.13%.

Crude oil prices (WTI) stabilized near $80 per barrel, holding at monthly highs due to a sharp escalation in the Persian Gulf. The US military campaign aimed at protecting navigation in the Strait of Hormuz entered a phase of intensive airstrikes on Iran’s missile depots and launch sites. The situation is further complicated by the potential expansion of the conflict’s geography: the Trump administration’s discussion of a scenario involving the seizure of the key export terminal on Kharg Island creates critical risks for global energy supplies.

Platinum prices (XPT) reached a three‑week high, rising to $1,670 per ounce. The main catalyst was the weakening of the US dollar to a one‑month low, triggered by weak inflation data that virtually eliminated the possibility of a Fed rate hike this month. The cheaper dollar increased the attractiveness of platinum as a commodity asset. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the platinum market is supported by a persistent fundamental supply deficit, now in its fourth consecutive year.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.77%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) closed up 0.52%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.38%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed down 0.12%. On Thursday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index showed strong growth, adding 1.3%. The positive dynamics were driven by an overall improvement in global risk appetite after the release of unexpectedly weak US producer‑price inflation, which significantly eased concerns about price pressure. Against this backdrop, market participants continued reallocating capital into Hong Kong‑listed equities, ignoring weaker‑than‑expected macroeconomic data from mainland China.

The Australian dollar (AUD) remains resilient, holding near $0.70 and consolidating at three‑week highs. The currency is effectively offsetting geopolitical pressure caused by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and the subsequent spike in energy prices. The main driver of the current exchange rate remains US dollar weakness. Domestic factors in Australia also support current market sentiment: inflation expectations continue to decline, falling in July to a six‑month low of 4.7%. Despite this, traders remain cautious in expecting further steps by the Reserve Bank of Australia, pricing in only a 20% probability of an August rate hike.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) consolidated near a six‑week high at $0.584, supported by expectations of continued tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Market participants project that, following the recent rate increase, the regulator will act again in September, aiming to bring the official rate to 3.0% by year‑end. An additional support factor is the overall weakness of the US dollar, which is near a one‑month low as investors reassess expectations regarding Fed aggressiveness.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,572.40 +28.81 (+0.38%)

Dow Jones (US30) 52,658.64 +150.37 (+0.29%)

DAX (DE40) 24,999.53 -147.50 (-0.59%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,515.92 -13.47 (-0.13%)

USD Index 100.51 +0.02 (+0.02%)

News feed for: 2026.07.16

UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
CHF Summary of Monetary Policy Discussions at 10:30 (GMT+3) – CHF (LOW)
Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Jul

Stock indices rose after the release of US inflation data. China’s GDP slowed sharply

By JustMarkets

On Tuesday, the US stock indices finished the session in the green, supported by encouraging inflation data that reduced the likelihood of a Fed rate hike this month. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones index (US30) rose by 0.02%. The S&P 500 index (US500) gained 0.38%. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed Tuesday in the green at 1.10%. Investor optimism outweighed concerns related to rising energy prices amid the US-Iran conflict, allowing the technology and financial sectors to show a confident recovery.

The semiconductor sector recovered a significant portion of the previous day’s losses: shares of Nvidia, Micron, and Broadcom closed higher. The banking sector showed mixed dynamics: JPMorgan and Bank of America rose following earnings releases, while Goldman Sachs jumped 9% after reporting better‑than‑expected financial results; meanwhile, Citi faced a sell‑off, losing 5.3%. A sharp contrast came from IBM shares, which fell 25.2% – the company missed expectations and warned of constrained client spending, as businesses are currently concentrating investments on chip and memory components.

In his testimony before Congress, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank leadership’s firm determination to restore price stability and prevent persistently high inflation. He expressed confidence that, with the right policy course, the five‑year period of elevated inflationary pressure will remain in the past. The head of the regulator described the current state of the US economy as resilient, noting moderate growth in consumer spending and stable increases in manufacturing output.

European indices closed higher on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed strongly at 2.20%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.11%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.30%. The positive dynamics followed the release of US inflation data, which came in below forecasts. This led to a decline in sovereign‑bond yields, easing financing conditions for major European corporations and restoring optimism across regional markets. The banking sector reacted with gains of more than 1% in BNP Paribas, ING, and Deutsche Bank. At the same time, energy companies such as Schneider and Siemens Energy strengthened, supported by renewed interest in artificial‑intelligence infrastructure.

On Tuesday, crude oil prices (WTI) held above $79 per barrel amid escalating military confrontation: the US carried out additional airstrikes on Iranian targets, and Tehran claimed responsibility for an attack on two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite overall tensions, prices retreated from daily highs after President Donald Trump announced he would not impose a 20% fee on cargo passing through the strait under US protection. Instead of direct tariff collection, Washington intends to replace these revenues with new trade and investment deals with Middle Eastern partners.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.74%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) closed up 2.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.52%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed at its opening price. On Wednesday, the Chinese stock market showed mixed dynamics. Investors reacted to ambiguous macroeconomic data: GDP growth in the second quarter slowed to 4.3% year‑on‑year, below market expectations (4.5%) and the lower bound of the government’s target range (4.5-5.0%). This was the lowest reading since Q4 2022. Another concerning signal was the acceleration of fixed‑asset investment decline to 5.7% in the first half of the year. However, the report also contained positive indicators: industrial production growth in June accelerated to 5.3%, retail sales unexpectedly rose by 1%, and the urban unemployment rate fell to a yearly low of 5.0%.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,543.59 +28.25 (+0.38%)

Dow Jones (US30) 52,508.27 +9.63 (+0.02%)

DAX (DE40) 25,147.03 +32.78 (+0.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,528.39 +31.10 (+0.30%)

USD Index 100.94 -0.29 (-0.29%)

News feed for: 2026.07.15

China GDP (y/y) at 05:00 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3) – CAD (HIGH)
Canada Monetary Policy Report at 16:45 (GMT+3) – CAD (HIGH)
US Fed Chairman Warsh Testifies at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)
Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (MED)
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Jul

GBP/USD Awaits Political News: What Will Happen Next

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD rose to 1.3403 on Wednesday, with British politics taking centre stage for investors.

The market is assessing the upcoming change of prime minister, with Andy Burnham set to take office on 20 July. Of additional interest is the potential candidate for the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. In betting markets, Ed Miliband is considered the favourite, whom investors perceive as a supporter of more active fiscal spending.

At the same time, market participants are monitoring escalating tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and increased inflation risks. The United States has continued its strikes on Iran following Donald Trump’s restoration of a naval blockade on Iranian shipping and his proposal for a 20% fee to cover the costs of securing the Strait of Hormuz.

Against this backdrop, markets have strengthened expectations of further rate hikes from the Bank of England. Investors are now almost fully pricing in two rate increases in 2026, with a September hike already largely reflected in quotes.

In the US, weaker-than-expected inflation data for June has eased pressure on the Federal Reserve. However, Christopher Waller warned that the regulator could tighten policy again if inflation remains above the 2% target.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is shaping a growth wave towards 1.3451. A wide consolidation range is practically forming around the 1.3393 level. An upside breakout from this range would open potential for the wave to continue to 1.3453. A downside breakout would suggest the potential for the wave to continue to 1.3333, with the prospect of the trend extending to 1.3090. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is above the zero level and pointing strictly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3400 level, currently extending down to 1.3370. An increase to 1.3451 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.3330. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below the 80 level and pointing strictly downwards to 20.

Conclusion

GBP/USD has edged higher as markets focus on the upcoming UK political transition, with Andy Burnham set to become prime minister on 20 July. The potential appointment of Ed Miliband as Chancellor-seen as favouring more active fiscal spending-adds an element of intrigue. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including renewed US strikes on Iran and a proposed 20% fee for securing the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed oil prices higher and reinforced Bank of England tightening expectations. Markets are now pricing in two rate hikes for 2026, with September already priced in. In the US, softer inflation data has eased pressure on the Fed, though officials remain vigilant. Technically, the pound may see further upside towards 1.3451 before a potential pullback, with the broader direction hinging on UK political developments and geopolitical risks.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

14 Jul

USD/JPY Holds at Highs: Pressure Lingers on Yen

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY ended Tuesday at 162.27, with the Japanese yen remaining near 40-year lows. Pressure on the currency persists, as Japanese authorities have yet to carry out fresh interventions to support the exchange rate.

The yen fell sharply on Monday following reports from Reuters that Japanese authorities do not plan to change the asset structure of the state pension fund in the near future, reducing expectations of additional support for the domestic financial market.

Later, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that the country’s largest pension fund could adjust its investment structure if necessary. She also proposed including government bonds in a tax-free investment programme for private investors to boost interest in domestic assets.

Additional pressure on the yen came from a strengthening US dollar and a fresh surge in oil prices. The catalyst was US President Donald Trump’s decision to restore the blockade of Iranian ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, along with his call for countries that benefit from the security of this strategic route to compensate Washington for its protection costs.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 162.22 level, currently extending up to 162.46. A decline leg to the 162.22 level (testing from above) is expected today, followed by further growth to 163.30, with the prospect of the trend continuing to 164.15. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is above the zero level and pointing strictly upwards.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed a downward wave pattern to the 162.22 level. A wave extension to 162.00 cannot be ruled out. Thereafter, the start of a growth wave to at least 163.30 is expected. A breakout above this level would open potential for a continuation of the growth wave to 164.15. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below the 50 level and pointing strictly downwards to 20, indicating short-term downward pressure before a potential reversal.

Conclusion

USD/JPY remains elevated, with the yen stuck near 40-year lows as markets await concrete action from Japanese authorities. The currency weakened further following reports that the state pension fund will not change its asset structure imminently, although Finance Minister Katayama later left the door open for adjustments. Meanwhile, renewed US naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump’s demand for compensation from allies have pushed oil prices higher, adding to dollar strength. Technical indicators suggest the pair may see a modest pullback before resuming its upward trajectory towards 163.30 and possibly 164.15, with intervention risks remaining the key wildcard for yen bulls.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

13 Jul

Oil prices jumped 4% amid a new wave of escalation between the US and Iran

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.29% (weekly: -0.36%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.42% (weekly: +0.91%). The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed Friday in the green at 0.33% (weekly: +0.84%). On Friday, US equity markets ended the week on a positive note, reflecting investor optimism ahead of the earnings season. The main event was the record debut of South Korea’s SK Hynix, which raised $26.5 billion in the largest listing of a foreign company in US history, with its depositary receipts jumping 12.8% above the offering price. The tech sector showed mixed dynamics: amid rising demand for AI‑related solutions, Nvidia and AMD shares rose 4% and 2% respectively, while Meta surged 6% thanks to a positive analyst report.

This week will be pivotal for financial markets, as investors will closely analyze Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony in Congress. After his appointment, markets began pricing in a more hawkish monetary policy scenario, and now traders expect signals regarding the Fed’s readiness to raise rates in September. Particular interest will center on how the current labor‑market weakness – reflected in recent jobless‑claims data – aligns with his assessment of inflation risks, which are being fueled by energy prices. Investors will also focus on the US CPI inflation report this week. Headline inflation is expected to slow below 4%, but the persistence of core inflation at 2.9% may complicate the Fed’s task. Additional clarity will come from retail‑sales and industrial‑production reports, which will show how effectively the US economy is coping with inflationary pressure and geopolitical uncertainty ahead of key Fed decisions.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to keep its key rate at 2.25% this week, continuing its wait‑and‑see approach. Analysts note the absence of any urgent need for changes: inflation risks appear contained, and the economic recovery is progressing gradually, making the current monetary policy appropriate. The Canadian dollar strengthened on Friday, rising to 1.41 per US dollar after hitting a 15‑month low of 1.425 at the end of June. This rebound was made possible by June employment data: the economy added 18,200 jobs, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 6.5%. The positive labor‑market dynamics significantly reduced expectations that the Bank of Canada would need to ease monetary policy in the near term to support the economy.

European indices closed higher on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.20% (weekly: -2.89%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.15% (weekly: -2.12%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.32% (weekly: -2.36%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.24% (weekly: -1.71%). European equity markets are undergoing a correction after recently reaching record highs. The main pressure came from the tech sector: ASML shares fell 2.1%, Siemens Energy dropped 2.6%, and Infineon declined 1.3%. Market participants continue reassessing the outlook for the AI sector, questioning whether the significant speculative demand for infrastructure can transform into sustainable long‑term profitability for companies.

On Monday, crude oil prices (WTI) rose by roughly 4%, surpassing $74 per barrel and breaking a two‑day decline. The positive price dynamics were driven by a new wave of escalation between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, where an exchange of missile strikes occurred. The flare‑up in the region erased recent optimism linked to the temporary peace agreement, which had previously given the market hope for increased energy supplies. Tehran issued a statement announcing the closure of navigation through the strait until further notice, which was denied by US Central Command, but the mere fact of the incident significantly complicates prospects for diplomatic resolution.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.20% (weekly: -2.02%), China’s FTSE China A50 fell by 2.48% (weekly: -0.27%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.60% (weekly: +3.29%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed up 0.50% (weekly: -0.14%). On Monday, sentiment across Asia‑Pacific equity markets was mostly negative amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The exchange of military strikes between the US and Iran, linked to the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a spike in oil prices. This raised investor concerns about intensifying inflationary pressure and potential interest‑rate hikes by global central banks. As a result, most regional markets ended the session in the red, including Japan, Australia, and China.

This week will be decisive for the Asia‑Pacific region, where macroeconomic data from China will set the tone for global sentiment. China’s GDP growth in Q2 is expected to slow to 4.4%, reflecting ongoing structural challenges in the economy, despite a projected slight acceleration in the industrial sector to 4.7%. Investors will pay close attention to retail‑sales and trade figures, as well as credit‑growth data, which should clarify the effectiveness of recent measures aimed at supporting business activity.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,575.39 +31.75 (+0.42%)

Dow Jones (US30) 52,637.01 +149.60 (+0.29%)

DAX (DE40) 25,067.09 -51.18 (-0.20%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,497.29 +24.84 (+0.24%)

USD Index 100.97 +0.06 (+0.06%)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

13 Jul

EUR/USD: US Inflation Will Determine Everything

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD opens the week around 1.1433. Investors continue to assess the situation in the Middle East, where uncertainty remains high. Oil prices corrected lower following a sharp rise at the start of the week, after reports that the United States and Iran intend to continue peace negotiations.

At the same time, fresh mutual strikes between the parties have heightened fears that the conflict could once again enter an escalation phase, leaving the prospects for maintaining the ceasefire uncertain.

Renewed hostilities have brought fears of a new inflation wave back to the market, supporting expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary tightening. Markets currently estimate the probability of a rate hike in September at approximately 62%, up from 58% a week earlier, though this figure exceeded 70% mid-week.

Additional attention has been drawn to comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, who noted that one of the key drivers of inflationary pressure in the United States remains demand growth, linked to developments in artificial intelligence technology.

The main event of the week will be the release of the US June consumer price index (CPI). Higher-than-expected figures would reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain a tight policy stance, potentially supporting the dollar. Conversely, weaker-than-forecast CPI data would increase pressure on the US currency, as markets would begin to price in a softer monetary policy trajectory once again

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1410 level, currently extending down to 1.1388 and up to 1.1410. A consolidation range around this level is practically complete. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective wave developing to 1.1450, followed by a decline to 1.1260. A direct downside breakout would open potential for a downward wave to 1.1260. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator-its signal line is above zero but pointing strictly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum with the potential for the trend to continue lower.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed the next growth wave to the 1.1412 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a range expansion down to 1.1366 and up to 1.1400 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.1260. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator-its signal line is above 50 and pointing strictly up to 80, before a subsequent decline to 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is treading water at the start of the week as markets await key US inflation data that could set the tone for the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East remains elevated, with conflicting signals-renewed peace talks on one hand and fresh military strikes on the other-keeping investors cautious. Inflation expectations have been reinforced by escalating tensions, pushing September rate hike probabilities higher despite a mid-week dip. Comments from NY Fed’s Williams on AI-driven demand as an inflation factor have added another dimension to the debate. All eyes are now on Wednesday’s CPI release: a stronger print could boost the dollar, while a weaker outcome would ease pressure on the euro. Technically, the bearish outlook for EUR/USD remains intact, with downside potential towards 1.1260 in the medium term.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets see small gains for Silver & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the muted gains for the metals was Silver (647 contracts) with Gold (227 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-1,129 contracts), Copper (-516 contracts), Steel (-349 contracts) and with Palladium (-334 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Copper leads the Metals Markets price performances

In the major Metals Markets this week, Copper was the highest mover with a modest 0.93% gain over the past 5 days. Steel followed that with a 0.72% rise, and Palladium rounded out the gainers with a small 0.30% increase.

On the downside, Gold fell by -2.26% on the week, followed by Platinum with a -2.3% decrease.

The biggest decliner on the week was Silver, which declined by -5.28%.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (87 percent) and Steel (71 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (61.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (34 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score was Platinum (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (50.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (50.2 percent)
Silver (34.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (32.9 percent)
Copper (86.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (87.4 percent)
Platinum (45.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (48.5 percent)
Palladium (61.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (63.3 percent)
Steel (71.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (73.0 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (16 percent) and Silver (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-12 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (16.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.0 percent)
Silver (9.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (4.5 percent)
Copper (-7.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-10.0 percent)
Platinum (-9.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-7.3 percent)
Palladium (-11.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-12.1 percent)
Steel (-14.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-11.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 194,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 194,019 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.9	16.0	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	75.8	4.7
– Net Position:	194,246	-222,282	28,036
– Gross Longs:	233,713	59,564	45,636
– Gross Shorts:	39,467	281,846	17,600
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.3	47.1	47.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-14.6	-10.1

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 647 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,368 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.6	29.9	23.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	71.0	9.3
– Net Position:	28,015	-43,095	15,080
– Gross Longs:	39,446	31,337	24,829
– Gross Shorts:	11,431	74,432	9,749
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	68.4	35.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-3.5	-19.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 64,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,788 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.4	35.1	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	64.3	3.9
– Net Position:	64,272	-73,170	8,898
– Gross Longs:	96,440	88,070	18,622
– Gross Shorts:	32,168	161,240	9,724
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.9	13.0	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	8.9	-9.1

Platinum Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -1,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,001 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	33.6	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	66.6	7.0
– Net Position:	13,872	-17,702	3,830
– Gross Longs:	22,825	18,023	7,579
– Gross Shorts:	8,953	35,725	3,749
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.7	60.8	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	14.3	-20.9

Palladium Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -334 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,324 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.5	46.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.6	23.3	9.1
– Net Position:	-4,658	4,161	497
– Gross Longs:	6,345	8,315	2,127
– Gross Shorts:	11,003	4,154	1,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.1	43.1	35.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	12.9	-11.8

Steel Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,712 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	64.1	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	85.4	0.3
– Net Position:	8,363	-8,533	170
– Gross Longs:	11,353	25,662	274
– Gross Shorts:	2,990	34,195	104
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.4	29.3	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	14.8	-26.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.