InvestMacro

The main US stock indices started the summer with confident gains. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.26%. The S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.09%. The Tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.60%. Powerful fuel for buying came from new geopolitical statements by the White House and a loud technological announcement in the artificial intelligence sector. The main locomotive of the market rally was the technology sector, where Nvidia produced a real sensation. Its shares jumped 6.3% after the official presentation of the new RTX Spark superchip, which marks the corporation’s aggressive entry into the mass personal computer market. Nvidia’s success instantly triggered a chain reaction across the entire IT complex.

On Monday, by the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.40%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.45%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.97%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session lower by 0.68%. The main trigger for the market reversal into the red zone was alarming reports from the Middle East that the Iranian delegation had unilaterally halted indirect negotiations with the United States. Tehran responded with this demarche to Israel’s large‑scale expansion of its military operation in Lebanon. The situation worsened after official statements from Iran, in which it not only threatened a total military blockade of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz but also promised to extend its countermeasures to the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait near the Horn of Africa in response to alleged violations of the ceasefire.

Oil prices ended the first trading day of June with a powerful rally: US WTI crude jumped by 6%, settling above $92 per barrel. During the session, the market nearly entered panic mode when WTI quotes spiked more than 8% intraday. The catalyst for the price shock was publications in Iranian state media claiming that Tehran was fully freezing any contacts with Washington in response to new military strikes in Lebanon and was beginning preparations for a total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of an immediate loss of one‑fifth of global hydrocarbon supplies pushed geopolitical risk premiums to the maximum. The unprecedented intraday overheating of prices was cooled only by US President Donald Trump personally. In his special statement, he said that Israel and Hezbollah had reached an agreement on a mutual ceasefire in Lebanon, and that diplomatic dialogue with Iran, contrary to rumors, was continuing.

The US natural gas prices showed a notable correction, dropping more than 3% and falling below $3.2 per MMBtu (million British thermal units). Thus, “blue fuel” retreated from the local high of $3.29 reached in the previous session amid profit‑taking and traders reassessing the supply‑demand balance. Despite the daily decline, May turned out to be extremely successful for the US gas market: by the end of the month, prices surged 18.9%, fully offsetting April’s 4.1% drop.
In Asia on Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 1.06%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.86%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.03%.

The offshore yuan showed confident strengthening, reaching around 6.76 yuan per dollar. The Chinese currency approached its highest levels since February 2023. Against the backdrop of a sharp escalation of the geopolitical crisis around Iran, international investors increasingly began redirecting capital into Chinese assets, viewing them as a relatively safe haven. China’s leadership traditionally strives for strict exchange‑rate stability to prevent excessive appreciation of national exports amid a stagnating industrial PMI. This defensive stance of the monetary authorities is clearly reflected in the regulator’s actions: the People’s Bank of China continues to set daily reference fixings at levels noticeably weaker than market expectations.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.72% (up +1.49% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.37% (up +1.80% for the week). The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed higher by 0.20% (up +2.58% for the week).

On Friday, May 29, 2026, US stock indices ended the session at new historical highs, recording phenomenal results for the entire month. The main triumph of May was the Technology‑focused NASDAQ, which jumped more than 8% over the month. The broad‑market S&P 500 added 5% in May, while the industrial Dow Jones rose 3%. A powerful long‑term driver for the equity market was another wave of AI euphoria, supported by strong corporate news. Shares of IT giant Dell posted an incredible surge of +33% as the company sharply raised its profit and revenue expectations thanks to an avalanche‑like increase in demand for its artificial‑intelligence server equipment.

In turn, Oracle (+10%) and Microsoft (+5%) received a strong investment boost amid news of a new funding round for the startup Anthropic, confirming the continued resilience of the AI trend. At the same time, the stock market was supported by a local improvement in the geopolitical backdrop. Reports that the US and Iran had agreed on a 60‑day memorandum to extend the ceasefire and unblock the Strait of Hormuz (although the document is still awaiting Donald Trump’s signature) led to a decline in energy prices and US Treasury yields.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened significantly, falling below 1.378 per US dollar. The main reason for the sell‑off in the “loonie” was weak macroeconomic data, which effectively forced investors to price in an exclusively “dovish” scenario for the Bank of Canada’s next steps. The biggest disappointment for the market was the GDP report: in the first quarter of 2026, the Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted in annual terms. Since this marks the second consecutive quarterly decline, analysts openly began speaking about a technical recession and a deep domestic slowdown. Against this backdrop, market participants have virtually no doubt that at the upcoming meeting on June 10, the Bank of Canada will prefer to pause and leave interest rates unchanged.

On Friday, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.05% (up +0.87% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.07% (up +0.83% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.46% (up +2.10% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session lower by 0.16% (down -0.33% for the week). The external backdrop for European assets remains mixed. On the one hand, markets were supported by reports from the White House that the US and Iran had agreed on a 60‑day memorandum to extend the ceasefire and launch official negotiations, which is now awaiting Donald Trump’s approval. On the other hand, the balance of risks worsened due to a new escalation in Eastern Europe, where, during a nighttime attack on Friday on Ukrainian border infrastructure, a Russian drone struck a building in the Romanian city of Galați, triggering a sharp reaction from the NATO member state.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.1%, dropping below $88 per barrel – the lowest level in the past six weeks. This decline capped an extremely unsuccessful month for the commodity market: in May alone, WTI prices plunged by 16%. Investors are actively pricing in a preliminary agreement between the US and Iran on a 60‑day extension of the ceasefire and the restoration of commercial shipping, despite the fact that Donald Trump has not yet signed the document, and official Tehran states that the deal is not finalized. Analysts urge the market not to get carried away and warn that the actual return of supply to the global market will be a complex and uneven process.

In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.53% (up +1.80% for the week), China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 0.31% (up +2.51% for the week), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.70% (down -1.79% for the week), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) increased by 1.62% (up +0.87% for the week).

China’s Manufacturing PMI indicated stagnation in the industrial sector, falling to the critical level of exactly 50.0 points. The main restraining factors remain weak domestic demand and persistently high costs for raw materials and components. The internal sub‑indices point to cooling across all key areas, as production growth slowed to a three‑month low of 51.2 points, while the volume of new domestic orders returned to contraction territory at 49.9 points.
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) saw a slight correction, slipping to around 0.596 USD, but the “kiwi” continues to hold near its three‑month highs. The fundamental position of New Zealand’s currency remains strong thanks to a sharp rise in aggressive market expectations for monetary tightening. The main driver behind the continuation of the long‑term upward trend was Friday’s remarks by Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman. She openly warned investors that to combat entrenched inflation, the regulator will likely have to raise the Official Cash Rate significantly faster and more aggressively than previously projected. The probability of a rate hike at the next meeting in July has surged to 80%.

On Thursday, US stock indices closed at new all‑time highs. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.05%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.58%. The Tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.91%. The main drivers of the rally were the breakthrough developments in the Middle East: negotiators from the US and Iran finally reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire and gradually unblock oil and LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf, which ultimately deflated speculative pressure in the commodity market and stabilized government bond yields.

In Europe, by the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.34%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.21%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) closed lower 0.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended in the red at 0.64%. The published minutes of the ECB’s April meeting confirmed a deep split within the regulator and strengthened the market’s “hawkish” expectations. It turned out that keeping rates unchanged in April was a compromise and “highly contentious” decision: some officials were ready to vote for immediate tightening. The minutes also show that even the two rounds of monetary tightening planned for this year may not return inflation to the 2% target. Against this backdrop, markets have become more confident that on June 11, the ECB will almost certainly raise key rates by 25 basis points, and are pricing in at least one more similar move before year‑end.

WTI crude oil prices showed high volatility, fluctuating around $89 per barrel. Early in the session, prices jumped by about 2% due to another escalation: the US destroyed several attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz, Kuwait intercepted a missile fired in its direction, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened a harsh response to attempts by foreign vessels to enter the Persian Gulf. However, prices later erased all gains after an Axios report that the US and Iran had agreed on a preliminary 60‑day memorandum. The document, which still needs approval from President Donald Trump, guarantees unimpeded navigation and obliges Iran to fully clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, sharply reducing the geopolitical risk premium.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) jumped more than 4%, holding above $3.2 per MMBtu and approaching February highs. A powerful trigger for buyers was fresh EIA data. For the week ending May 22, US utilities injected 92 billion cubic feet of gas into storage, noticeably below the expected 95-96 bcf and far below last year’s 104 bcf. As a result, total inventories reached 2.483 trillion cubic feet. Although this level still exceeds last year’s by 0.9% and the five‑year seasonal average by 6.2%, the market surplus continues to shrink.

In Asia on Tuesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.88%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.73%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) rose by 0.11%.

The offshore yuan stabilized around 6.76 per dollar, holding near its strongest levels since February 2023. The main support factor for China’s currency was the news of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. An additional powerful driver for the yuan is the global artificial intelligence boom, which has sharply increased demand for Chinese tech exports. This inflow of foreign currency has significantly eased Beijing’s concerns about excessive yuan appreciation, allowing it to finish May with a second consecutive month of gains despite regular attempts by the People’s Bank of China to restrain the momentum through lower‑than‑expected daily fixings.

The Australian dollar stabilized around 0.71 USD, ending May with a moderate decline of about 0.5%. The main pressure on the “aussie” came from a sharp drop in investor expectations for further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia. April inflation came in below predictions, consumer spending weakened, and the labor market showed the first signs of stabilization. As a result, traders reduced the probability of a rate hike at the June meeting to just 5%, although they still estimate the chances of a final move to 4.6% in Q4 2026 at around 70%.

The Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Anna Breman, reaffirmed the regulator’s “hawkish” stance in her speech, stating that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) may rise faster and more aggressively than previously expected. Breman emphasized that due to the escalation of the Middle East conflict, New Zealand and its key trading partners face a classic stagflation scenario: slowing economic growth alongside a short‑term spike in inflation caused by supply chain disruptions and rising production costs.