InvestMacro

On Thursday, US indices closed lower. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.36%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.41%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed down 0.57%. Recent macroeconomic reports showed that the manufacturing PMI (S&P PMI) for April jumped by 1.7 points to 54.0, marking the fastest growth in almost four years. However, this optimism was overshadowed by an increase in jobless claims to 214,000 and a drop in the Chicago Fed National Activity Index to a four‑month low of 0.20, which came in worse than analysts expected.

On the geopolitical front, the situation has reached a deadlock: the US and Iran are fighting for control over the Strait of Hormuz, using mutual blockades as leverage. Washington expects counterproposals from Tehran to resume the peace process, while Iran refuses to negotiate as long as its ports remain blocked by the US Navy. This uncertainty continues to pressure global markets and keeps supply‑disruption risks elevated.

The European stock market continued to decline. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.16%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.87%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.67%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.19%. The main negative factor was fresh PMI data confirming that the prolonged energy crisis caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has begun directly suppressing business activity in the Eurozone. Against the backdrop of attacks on commercial vessels by both Iran and the US, investors began actively selling bank stocks, leading to declines of more than 2% in Santander, Deutsche Bank, and BBVA.

The US natural‑gas prices plunged more than 4% on Thursday, falling to 2.60 dollars per MMBtu – a level close to the lows of autumn 2024. The main driver was the weekly report showing an unusually large storage injection. The build totaled 103 billion cubic feet, not only exceeding analysts’ expectations but nearly doubling the five‑year average for this time of year. Thanks to mild spring weather reducing heating demand, total US gas inventories now stand 7.1% above normal, creating downward pressure on prices.

Asian indices declined yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.75%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) slipped by 0.02%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 0.95%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) dropped by 0.57%.

Japan’s economic situation is becoming increasingly contradictory. For the first time in five months, core inflation accelerated, driven by rising energy prices amid the conflict in Iran. Despite this, the figure still has not reached the 2% target, giving the Bank of Japan a formal reason to maintain its ultra‑loose monetary policy. The regulator is expected to leave rates unchanged at next week’s meeting, preferring a wait‑and‑see approach amid high uncertainty.
On Friday, the offshore yuan fell below 6.83 per dollar, ending the week with its first decline in three weeks. The main driver of the Chinese currency’s weakness was the global strengthening of the dollar and the sharp escalation of the Middle East conflict. President Trump’s order to “shoot to kill” Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz triggered a new wave of volatility in energy markets and heightened concerns about the safety of maritime trade routes.

The situation in the Persian Gulf is already directly affecting China’s real economy. Due to the spike in oil prices and logistical disruptions, many Chinese exporters were forced to raise their selling prices to offset higher fuel and raw‑material costs. This pressure has begun to spill over into the domestic market: in March, several categories of consumer goods recorded noticeable price increases, ending a long period of price stability in the country.

New Zealand’s domestic agenda now dictates the need for decisive action from the regulator. After the release of high inflation data for the first quarter, traders increased bets on a 25‑basis‑point rate hike as early as May. Inflationary pressure is expected to intensify further in the second quarter, when the recent surge in energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict will be fully reflected in the statistics. The RBNZ has already sent a clear signal to the market that it is prepared to take aggressive measures if price growth accelerates further.

On Wednesday, the US indices rose. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.69%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.05%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 1.64%. The main driver of optimism was President Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely. Investors chose to ignore reports of localized strikes and vessel seizures, focusing instead on the fact that Washington has de facto removed the threat of immediate escalation that could paralyze global energy markets. A real rally unfolded in the technology sector, where semiconductor stocks posted unprecedented growth for the 16th consecutive session. Amid the AI frenzy, shares of Broadcom, AMD, and Micron surged by 5-8%.

At the end of April 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the 78,000‑dollar mark, rising more than 2% and reaching its highest level since early February. Since the start of the conflict, bitcoin has remained resilient, trading 15% above late‑February levels – a stark contrast to many traditional financial instruments during this period of turbulence. The key factor supporting the “digital gold” has been a powerful inflow of institutional capital. Just this week, 13 US spot bitcoin ETFs attracted more than 250 million dollars, reinforcing last week’s impressive net inflow of 996.4 million dollars. Growing demand from funds indicates that large investors view bitcoin as an effective diversification tool amid the prolonged geopolitical crisis and uncertainty in energy markets.

On Wednesday, the European stock market continued to decline for the third consecutive day. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.31%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.96%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.75%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.21%. The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s retaliatory vessel seizures triggered a new wave of increases in oil and gas prices. Unlike the US, which is relatively energy‑independent, Europe is extremely sensitive to the cost of imported resources, making this a signal of further margin compression in the industrial sector. Industrial giants and consumer‑goods companies came under the strongest pressure. Shares of Safran and Airbus fell by 2.5-3.5% due to expected increases in production costs, while LVMH and Adidas dropped by 2.5% amid a general investor flight from risk.

Brent crude prices surpassed the psychological level of 101 dollars per barrel on Wednesday, reacting to another wave of armed incidents in the Persian Gulf. Reports of a Liberian container ship being shelled by forces linked to the IRGC, and attacks on cargo vessels leaving ports, erased the faint hopes for de‑escalation. Although Donald Trump formally extended the ceasefire, the continued US naval blockade and Iran’s refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have created a stalemate in which global trade remains paralyzed. The oil market is now pricing in prolonged shortages, as logistical disruptions have reduced global supply by roughly 4-5 million barrels per day (around 5%). The most critical situation is unfolding in Asia, which traditionally relies heavily on Middle Eastern crude and is the first to feel the consequences of blocked transport arteries.

Asian indices traded without a unified trend yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.40%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.56%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 1.22%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 1.18%. On Thursday, Asian stock markets showed negative dynamics, as the prolonged diplomatic deadlock between the US and Iran finally undermined investors’ risk appetite. Investors in the region shifted to a cautious strategy, recognizing that the current state of “neither war nor peace,” with transport arteries closed, leads to long‑term economic depletion and rising costs for producers.
At its April 2026 meeting, Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.75% for the seventh consecutive time, aiming to balance support for the national currency and economic growth. The decision came amid noticeable pressure on the rupiah, which fell to 17,140 per US dollar on April 21 (-0.87% since late March). The main reason for the weakening was the global capital outflow from emerging markets, triggered by the escalation of the Middle East conflict and rising geopolitical risks. Despite external instability, Indonesia’s domestic macroeconomic indicators show resilience. Annual inflation in March slowed to 3.48%, remaining within the central bank’s target range (1.5%-3.5%). Following strong Q4 2025 data, when GDP grew by 5.39% (the highest since 2022), BI maintained its optimistic 2026 growth expectations in the range of 4.9%-5.7%.

Inflation in Singapore accelerated sharply in March 2026, reaching 1.8% year‑on‑year (compared to 1.2% in February). This jump was the highest in the past year and a half. Singaporean authorities maintain a hawkish stance, warning of prevailing pro‑inflationary risks. Further developments will critically depend on the stability of energy supplies, as any new disruptions in regional supply chains could lead to additional increases in import costs and intensify pressure on the consumer market.

On Wednesday, the US markets received a strong impulse from a combination of solid macroeconomic data and stabilizing signals from Washington. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.59%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.63%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.59%. The US consumer sector demonstrated unexpected resilience: retail sales in March rose by 1.7%, marking the best result in a year, while sales excluding autos jumped by 1.9% – the strongest increase in three years. Positive momentum was reinforced by the housing market, where pending home sales rose by 1.5%, significantly outperforming analysts’ modest expectations of 0.5%.

On the political front, investors were encouraged by the stance of Kevin Warsh, the nominee for Federal Reserve Chair. During Senate hearings, he emphasized the “strict independence” of the regulator and the priority of price stability, without excuses or ambiguity,” effectively distancing himself from President Trump’s demands for immediate rate cuts. The market interpreted his refusal to provide forward guidance as a sign of a return to traditional, predictable central‑bank policy.

The Mexican peso (MXN) stabilized at 17.3 per US dollar, holding near a six‑week high. Domestic developments in Mexico support the peso’s strength. March inflation data reached a 17‑month high, strengthening the position of hawks within the national central bank. After the recent controversial rate cut, the Bank of Mexico will likely be forced to pause and maintain current borrowing conditions to contain the risk of accelerating price growth.

Tuesday ended with a noticeable decline for European markets. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.60%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.14%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.65%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 1.05%. Donald Trump’s statement that tomorrow’s ceasefire deadline will not be extended, combined with aggressive rhetoric from both sides, effectively deprived investors of hope for a quick restoration of oil exports through the Persian Gulf.

On Wednesday, silver prices held below the psychological level of 78 dollars per ounce, attempting to stabilize after a sharp 4% plunge in the previous session. Despite Donald Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire, investors focused on the diplomatic failure: the cancellation of J.D. Vance’s visit to Islamabad and Tehran’s categorical refusal to negotiate confirmed the status quo in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Since the start of the military conflict, silver has already lost around 17% of its value, as its dual status as an industrial and precious metal makes it extremely vulnerable to supply‑chain disruptions and the overall slowdown in global manufacturing.

On Tuesday, WTI crude prices stabilized around 90 dollars per barrel, correcting after a sharp 5% surge. The volatility was driven by conflicting signals: the session began amid reports of a diplomatic deadlock and the cancellation of J.D. Vance’s visit to Pakistan, but later Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire. The US President justified this decision by citing a “serious split” within the Iranian government, stating that the pause in hostilities would remain in place until Tehran forms a unified position for signing the final agreement. Despite the diplomatic reprieve, the global supply situation remains critical. The blockade of key transport routes has already reduced supply by roughly 4 million barrels per day, and analysts warn that this deficit could grow to 5 million barrels (around 5% of the global market).

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.89% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.16%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed up 0.48%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.04%.

On Wednesday morning, the Australian stock market showed a sharp decline: the ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.9%, approaching a two‑week low. Investors reacted negatively to Wall Street’s sentiment, where skepticism prevailed regarding the viability of the Middle East peace process. Domestic pressure intensified due to weak leading‑indicator data for March, reflecting the negative impact of rising fuel prices on business activity. The real shock for the market was the collapse of Cochlear Ltd. shares by 37% to a ten‑year low after a sharp downward revision of profit predictions. The financial sector and mining industry also suffered significant losses.