InvestMacro

On Friday, the American stock market went through one of the harshest crashes in recent times due to a massive investor exodus from the technology sector. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.66% (week-to-date -0.58%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 2.64% (week-to-date -2.62%). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 4.77% (week-to-date -4.42%).

The catalyst for the tech panic was a strong US labor market report (172,000 new jobs versus the expectation of 85,000), which pushed the yield on 10‑year Treasury bonds above 4.5%, and 30‑year yields above 5%, intensifying fears of long-term high Fed rates. The main blow fell on semiconductor manufacturers, where Broadcom’s restrained outlook triggered a chain reaction and capital outflow from AI infrastructure. Broadcom’s own shares fell by more than 7% (continuing Thursday’s double‑digit decline), Marvell Technology and Micron Technology shares plunged by 16% and 13% respectively, while giants Intel and AMD lost about 11% of their value.

Statistics Canada published a strong labor market report that temporarily dispelled recession fears. The unemployment rate in the country unexpectedly fell by 0.3 percentage points in May – to 6.6% (the lowest level since January), while analysts had expected it to remain at 6.9%. The Canadian economy demonstrated surprising resilience despite triple pressure: the restrictive monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, prolonged tariff wars with Washington, and high energy prices caused by the Middle Eastern crisis.

European indices closed mixed on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.75% (week-to-date -1.29%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.32% (week-to-date +0.58%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.38% (week-to-date +0.08%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up 0.08% (week-to-date -0.40%).

European stock indices closed in the red, reacting to the prolonged standoff between the US and Iran and the inevitable tightening of policy by major central banks. The main driver of sell-offs in Europe was the strong US labor market report, which strengthened expectations of a Fed rate hike, as well as the May acceleration of inflation in the Eurozone to 3.2%, causing markets to price in an almost 100% probability of an ECB rate increase at the June 11 meeting. The situation was worsened by a technical revision of Eurozone GDP for the first quarter: the bloc’s economy contracted by 0.2% due to a drop in Ireland’s GDP amid volatility in multinational companies’ financial flows.

Prices for American light crude oil WTI fell another 3%, dropping to $90.3 per barrel. While earlier in the week the main trigger for the decline was purely geopolitical, by the end of the week investors’ focus shifted to fundamental economic indicators signaling a noticeable cooling of global demand for raw materials. But on Monday, prices for American light crude oil WTI rose by more than 3%, surpassing $93 per barrel and fully recovering the late‑week decline. A powerful trigger for the renewed rally was a new escalation in the Middle East: Iran launched a direct missile strike on Israeli territory and issued a harsh warning about its readiness to expand military actions in Lebanon. Although Israeli air defense systems intercepted all missiles and no casualties were reported, this attack put the already fragile ceasefire agreement at risk, effectively bringing diplomatic efforts to a deadlock.

On Monday, platinum (XPT/USD) prices collapsed to around $1,760 per ounce, hitting the lowest level since December 2025. The precious metal came under heavy pressure due to the sharp deterioration of the geopolitical situation over the weekend, when Iran launched missile strikes on Israel. This step jeopardized the fragile truce and worsened the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors fear that entrenched cost inflation, combined with the recent strong US labor market report (Nonfarm Payrolls), will force the Fed and other central banks to keep interest rates at a strictly restrictive level, reducing the attractiveness of precious metals. Nevertheless, the large-scale collapse in platinum prices is being limited by strong fundamental factors on the physical market side. According to fresh outlooks from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), the global market will record a supply deficit in 2026 for the fourth consecutive year.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.31% (week-to-date +0.34%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 1.62% (week-to-date -0.50%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.15% (week-to-date -0.87%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.70% (week-to-date -0.97%). Asian stock markets were swept by a powerful wave of sell-offs triggered by Friday’s crash on Wall Street. The main epicenter of the decline was South Korea’s KOSPI Index, which plunged by 8.8%, showing one of the worst days in its history. The catalyst for the panic was a massive capital outflow from semiconductor giants and companies linked to AI infrastructure, which began after Broadcom’s restrained prognoses. Other key regional markets – Japan, Australia, China, and Hong Kong – also came under cross‑pressure from macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks, recording deep declines. An additional blow to trader sentiment came from the sharp escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.73%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.41%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.53%. The main driver of optimism was the signing of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which reduced the geopolitical premium in commodities, pushed oil prices down, and led to a decline in US Treasury yields. The NASDAQ 100 Technology Index closed in negative territory due to a deep drop in the semiconductor sector, which had been the main engine of the market throughout the current year. The main blow fell on Broadcom shares, which plunged by 15%; despite strong net profit figures, the company’s conservative revenue outlook for artificial intelligence (AI) chips failed to meet Wall Street’s inflated expectations.

European indices closed in the green yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.60%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed with a gain of 1.15%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.55%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session higher by 0.27%.

The Swiss franc (CHF) stabilized at 0.79 per US dollar, remaining in close proximity to its lowest level since early April. Pressure on the national currency intensified after the release of May inflation data, which came in below analysts’ expectations and effectively deprived the Swiss National Bank of reasons to raise interest rates at the upcoming June meeting. Annual inflation in the country remained at 0.6%, which, although being the highest level since December 2024.
A sharp reversal occurred in the global energy market: prices for US light crude WTI collapsed by more than 3%, falling to 92 dollars per barrel and breaking a three‑day rally. The main trigger for profit‑taking and the drop in prices was the sudden appearance of diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East crisis. The White House officially stated that Israel and Lebanon had reached preliminary agreements on a ceasefire. But the downward momentum in oil remained limited, as the real situation in the Middle East is still far from stable. Any breakdown of the announced ceasefire within the next 24 hours could instantly return WTI prices to their recent four‑month highs.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) recorded a powerful rally, rising above 3.3 dollars per million BTU (British thermal units) and hitting a four‑month high. Fresh data from the Energy Information Administration confirmed that US LNG exports soared to a historic record of 573.5 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent. Commercial gas inventories in the US increased by only 95 billion cubic feet for the week, which was significantly worse than analysts’ expectations of a larger increase of around 101 billion cubic feet, confirming strong physical undersupply in the market.

In Asia on Thursday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.36%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 1.40%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.48%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) dropped by 1.13%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) continues to decline against the US dollar, falling to 0.711 and reaching its lowest levels in the past two weeks. The weakness is driven by a correction in the technology sector and cooling interest in AI‑related assets, which negatively affects risk‑sensitive currencies, including the Australian dollar. At the same time, the US dollar is supported by persistent inflation in the US and expectations of continued tight Federal Reserve policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a cautious tone after three rate hikes since the beginning of the year. RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted that policy tightening is already affecting economic activity, but inflation remains too high for the regulator to signal the end of the cycle. The market is almost fully pricing in a rate hold at the upcoming meeting, but the probability of another hike by August remains high.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) fell to around 0.585 US dollars, ending the current week with a loss of more than 2% of its value. The downward movement of the national currency is driven by investors’ broad reluctance to take risks due to the lack of tangible progress in peace negotiations between the US and Iran. Nevertheless, the large‑scale decline of the “kiwi” was partially contained by tight domestic monetary factors. Market participants continue to actively price in a high probability of an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at the upcoming July meeting.

The US stock indices retreated from their historical highs amid a new wave of escalation in the Middle Eastern crisis. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) Index fell by 1.21%. The S&P 500 (US500) Index declined by 0.74%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed down by 0.29%.

The direct exchange of military strikes between the US and Iran affected third countries in the Persian Gulf, disrupting the fragile ceasefire and prolonging the naval blockade of key energy routes. A simultaneous surge in oil and fuel prices triggered a sharp jump in US Treasury yields across the curve, while strong macroeconomic data, including the May ADP report (122,000 new jobs versus the prognosis of 110,000) and the ISM services PMI with its price component at a four‑year high, finally convinced investors that the Federal Reserve will be forced to keep interest rates at a tight, restrictive level for an extended period. This macroeconomic backdrop triggered a large‑scale flight from risk assets, hitting the technology and financial sectors the hardest. Shares of major software companies entered a deep correction: Oracle and Palantir plunged more than 5%, while Microsoft’s market capitalization fell by 3%.

Bitcoin continued to decline, dropping to the $61,000 mark, its lowest level since the escalation of the conflict with Iran in late February, before trimming losses to around $64,000. Since Strategy Inc. sold part of its large bitcoin holdings worth about $2.5 million, the digital assets has fallen by roughly 16%. The company is one of the largest corporate bitcoin holders and is widely viewed as a representative of the digital assets management model. Bitcoin is now down more than 50% from its peak above $126,000 reached in October of last year. US-listed bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) also recorded nearly $4 billion in outflows over 12 consecutive sessions – a record streak.
The Organization for Economic Co‑operation and Development (OECD) published an updated macroeconomic report in which it sharply downgraded its global growth expectation for the current year from the previous 3.4% to 2.8%, while keeping its 2027 estimate unchanged at 3.1%. The revision is directly linked to the prolonged Middle Eastern crisis. The key factors weighing on global activity in the coming years will be entrenched increases in energy prices, supply shortages, tight financial conditions due to high central bank rates, and a general decline in business confidence.

European indices were under pressure yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.31%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.71%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.53%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the session down by 0.40%.

European stock indices closed with notable losses as persistent inflation concerns were compounded by a new wave of global protectionism from Washington. The Donald Trump administration threatened to impose additional import tariffs of up to 12.5% on several trading partners due to ineffective oversight of goods produced using forced labor. This tariff threat instantly revived trade barriers between the US and the EU, coinciding with another escalation in the Middle East, where new armed clashes between Iran and the Gulf monarchies effectively derailed the fragile ceasefire. Against this backdrop, the banking sector – highly sensitive to rising systemic risks – came under the strongest pressure: shares of Italy’s UniCredit, Spain’s BBVA, and Germany’s Deutsche Bank plunged between 2% and 3.7% lower.

Prices for US WTI crude oil extended their rally, rising more than 2% to $95.7 per barrel amid a combination of severe domestic supply shortages in the US and a critical escalation in the Middle East. The main local trigger for the bulls was the latest weekly report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which recorded a sixth consecutive decline in US commercial crude inventories – this time by 7.97 million barrels. This drop not only doubled analysts’ consensus expectations of a 4‑million‑barrel decrease but also became the largest weekly outflow from US storage facilities since February of this year, revealing a significant physical supply shortfall in the market. At the same time, commodity traders priced a geopolitical risk premium into the barrel, completely ignoring another wave of verbal optimism from Washington. US President Donald Trump publicly stated that Iran had allegedly agreed to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons. However, the real situation in the region only worsened: overnight, direct clashes between US and Iranian forces were the fiercest since the ceasefire was announced, with Kuwaiti and Bahraini territories caught in the crossfire.

In Asia on Wednesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.50%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed up by 0.46%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.56%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.70%.

The Australian dollar remained below the 0.715 USD mark. The national currency received local support from strong domestic data: Australia’s April trade balance returned to a surplus of 1.79 billion AUD after a March deficit of 1.02 billion, driven by a sharp surge in iron ore and coal exports while imports remained stable. At the same time, earlier this week, weak Q1 GDP data confirmed that the three rounds of monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia this year have already begun effectively cooling domestic consumer demand and restraining underlying price pressures.

The major US stock indices continued to rise. By the end of the session, the Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.45%, the S&P 500 (US500) increased 0.13%, and the tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.48% higher. The leading US benchmarks once again renewed their all‑time highs, with the S&P 500 closing above the symbolic 7,600‑point mark for the first time in history, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added more than 200 points. Powerful investor optimism surrounding the artificial intelligence and semiconductor infrastructure sectors completely overshadowed the persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.

The true sensation of the day was Marvell Technology, whose shares surged 32%. The rally was triggered by a public statement from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who suggested that Marvell has a real chance of becoming the next technology company to reach a $1 trillion market capitalization. Shares of Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) jumped 19% after the company sharply raised its sales and profit expectations, citing exponential growth in demand for AI‑server infrastructure.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) posted a notable decline, falling more than 2% and dropping below the psychological $70,000 threshold – its lowest level since April 8. The market was surprised by news that Strategy Inc., known for its long‑standing aggressive accumulation of digital gold, executed a symbolic sale of roughly $2.5 million worth of Bitcoin – its first sale since late 2022. Although the amount is relatively small, the very fact that the company deviated from its pure HODL strategy sparked serious concerns about the sustainability of corporate treasury demand for digital assets. Additional pressure came from the ongoing liquidity crunch in the regulated sector: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded 11 consecutive sessions of net outflows, losing a total of approximately $3.45-3.5 billion.

European indices also posted solid gains yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose 0.48%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.77% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.48%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session 0.33% higher. The main driver of stabilization across European markets was fresh commentary from the White House. US President Donald Trump publicly confirmed that diplomatic channels with Tehran remain open and suggested that a temporary 60‑day agreement to unblock the Strait of Hormuz could be signed as early as next week. Optimism strengthened further after confirmation that a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon had come into effect.

However, the potential for a stronger rally was limited by internal EU macroeconomic factors. Preliminary Eurostat estimates showed a further acceleration of eurozone inflation in May, driven primarily by extreme volatility in oil and gas prices. The latest release confirmed persistent price pressures in the region and reinforced market expectations that Christine Lagarde will move forward with an ECB rate hike (the probability of an increase next week exceeds 90%).

WTI crude oil prices showed elevated volatility in the $92-95 per barrel range. The commodity market shifted into consolidation mode after a powerful rally the previous day, when prices jumped 5.5% following Iran’s threat to completely shut down the Strait of Hormuz in response to escalating tensions in Lebanon. The main source of uncertainty remains the unclear prospects of a temporary peace agreement between Washington and Tehran. President Trump maintains strong optimism, stating that diplomatic contacts are progressing and that a memorandum of understanding guaranteeing the reopening of the Strait could be signed as early as next week. Meanwhile, Iranian state media present a sharply different narrative, expressing deep skepticism about any progress and accusing Washington of aiding Israeli attacks.

In Asia on Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell 0.30%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed 2.09% higher, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 2.52%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) slipped 0.06%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) officially announced its decision to completely halt reverse‑repo operations, citing the current funding needs of primary dealers within standard open‑market procedures. This move marks a historic precedent, as the Chinese regulator refrained from injecting short‑term liquidity through this tool for the first time since August 2024. The effective zeroing of reverse‑repo volumes clearly indicates that monetary authorities consider liquidity levels in the national banking system fully sufficient, eliminating the need for additional emergency injections and confirming the stability of China’s domestic financial sector.