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EUR/USD Updates Four-Year High: Everything Works Against the US Dollar

EUR/USD reached 1.2000 on Wednesday after rising to 1.2082 the previous evening, marking a strong four-day rally. The pressure on the US dollar has intensified following comments from US President Donald Trump. He stated that he was not concerned about the weakening of the dollar, viewing its fall as moderate. The market interpreted this as a signal that the administration might be willing to tolerate a weaker dollar to enhance export competitiveness.

An additional blow to the dollar came from rising political uncertainty in Washington, with Trump making fresh statements about Greenland and continuing to criticise the US Federal Reserve’s independence.

Further compounding the dollar’s decline is growing speculation about a potential joint US-Japan currency intervention to support the yen, which has boosted demand for JPY.

Investors’ focus is on the Federal Reserve’s decision, due later tonight. The Fed is widely expected to maintain its current interest rate, but much attention is on potential signals regarding the timing of future rate cuts. Current expectations suggest two 25-basis-point cuts by the end of the year.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has formed an upward wave towards 1.2080. A breakout above this resistance level would signal a continuation of the bullish trend. For now, the pair is in a corrective phase, with support around 1.1935. The correction is confirmed by the MACD indicator, which shows the histogram and signal line above zero and forming a downward wave. After the correction, the upward trend may resume towards 1.2100 and potentially 1.2200, though corrections could occur during the rise.

On the H1 chart, after testing resistance, EUR/USD is forming a correction. A rebound from support at 1.1935 would signal a continuation of the bullish wave. The Stochastic indicator’s signal lines are approaching the 20 level, suggesting that the correction may continue before resuming the upward trend. The next target for growth could be 1.2100.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair continues to show bullish momentum, supported by a weaker US dollar and rising geopolitical tensions. The ongoing correction might offer buying opportunities, with further growth likely towards 1.2100 and 1.2200, depending on the Fed’s upcoming decision and global market dynamics.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Jan

Copper Targets Take Center Stage as New Drill Program Launches in Minnesota

Source: Streetwise Reports (1/26/26)

Green Bridge Metals Corp. (GRBM:CSE; GBMCF:OTC; J48:FWB) has initiated a diamond drilling program at the Titac Project, part of its South Contact District portfolio in northeastern Minnesota. The campaign aims to evaluate copper mineralization within a known titanium-bearing zone using modern geophysics and historic data.

Green Bridge Metals Corp. (GRBM:CSE; GBMCF:OTC; J48:FWB) has commenced a diamond core drilling program at its Titac Project, part of the South Contact District in northeastern Minnesota. The Phase 1 program is the first stage of targeted drilling aimed at evaluating and expanding copper mineralization at the Titac South deposit, which also hosts a titanium dioxide mineral resource outlined in an NI 43-101 Technical Report dated September 18, 2024.

According to the company, the drill program consists of six diamond core holes, each targeting a depth of approximately 300 meters, for a total of roughly 1,800 meters. The drill holes will be arranged in a fence-style section across the Titac South deposit, spaced approximately 50 meters apart.

The program’s objectives include defining the geological and structural controls on copper mineralization, validating historic copper assay results, and testing the spatial relationship between copper mineralization and geophysical anomalies.

The company stated that copper mineralization at Titac occurs primarily as chalcopyrite and is associated with an Oxide Ultramafic Intrusion (OUI) that also hosts the titanium dioxide resource. Drill targets have been prioritized where conductive and magnetic anomalies overlap, based on a 2025 VTEM airborne electromagnetic survey and modern 3D magnetic and conductivity inversions.

David Suda, President and CEO of Green Bridge Metals, said in a company news release, “The commencement of drilling at Titac is an important milestone for Green Bridge as we begin systematically testing the copper potential of a project that already hosts a titanium resource.” He added, “The strong correlation between these anomalies and known mineralization, together with the identification of several new targets, reinforces the exploration potential at Titac.”

US Policy Shifts Reshape Critical Mineral Supply Landscape

According to Catherine Boudreau, on January 7, analysis of U.S. interest in Venezuelan critical minerals showed that while the country was believed to hold deposits used in artificial intelligence, defense systems, and renewable energy technologies, significant barriers limited their relevance. Experts cited political instability, lack of reliable data, illegal mining activity, and infrastructure constraints. Tom Moerenhout of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy was quoted as saying, “In theory, yes, Venezuela has a lot of interesting critical minerals resources. In practice, those resources are only relevant if they are economically recoverable reserves.” The analysis also noted that most Western mining companies remain focused on expanding existing operations rather than entering high-risk jurisdictions.

In a separate sector assessment, Reed Blakemore and Alexis Harmon wrote on January 13 that Greenland possesses “substantial reserves of rare earth elements, uranium, and other strategically important minerals,” but faces major obstacles to development. The authors stated that Greenland lacks extensive infrastructure and emphasized that Greenland’s mineral potential is largely long-term rather than immediately actionable.

According to Muflih Hidayat on January 26, U.S. policy toward critical minerals entered a new phase with the proposal of a US$2.5 billion Strategic Resilience Reserve. The report stated that the United States maintained “100% import reliance on 12 essential minerals and 50%+ dependency on an additional 29 strategic materials,” highlighting supply chain vulnerability. It also noted China’s “90% processing dominance in rare earth elements” as a concentration risk. The analysis explained that the proposed reserve would allow above-market purchasing, counter-cyclical stockpiling, and profit reinvestment. As quoted in Congressional testimony cited in the report, “The legislation aims to provide targeted investments and stockpiling key inputs to help insulate the U.S. from foreign threats while providing a significant and cost-effective boost to the U.S. economy.”

Also on January 26, Bloomberg noted copper’s sharp price surge, stating it had “surged nearly 50% in eight months.” The report acknowledged copper’s critical role in manufacturing, clean energy, and artificial intelligence infrastructure, adding that “years of chronic underinvestment have left global mine capacity stretched to its limits.” TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali described copper’s tight supply conditions as “an unprecedented level of copper scarcity,” while Global X’s Trevor Yates said miners could remain profitable across normalized business cycles. Bloomberg also reported that unencumbered above-ground copper inventories had reached “unprecedentedly low levels,” and warned that markets could no longer withstand notable disruptions without significant pricing pressure.

Analysts Point to District-Scale Footprint and Strategic Metals Exposure

¹On December 26, John Newell of John Newell & Associates published a favorable assessment of Green Bridge Metals Corp., assigning the company a Speculative Buy rating. Newell stated that the company had “quietly assembled a district-scale land position” across northern Minnesota and Ontario, with exposure to copper, nickel, platinum group metals, titanium, and vanadium. He described these commodities as being “at the center of electrification, infrastructure renewal, and defense supply chain priorities.”

Newell identified the Serpentine project as the company’s foundational asset and described it as the primary source of near-term value. He referenced an existing mineral resource estimate consisting of approximately 21.6 million tonnes of Indicated material grading 0.69% copper equivalent and 280 million tonnes of Inferred material grading 0.53% copper equivalent. He noted that platinum group elements were not included in the historical estimate and stated that this represented additional potential. Newell also highlighted the project’s level of advancement, citing access to paved roads, rail, and power, along with permitted drill pads in place for the 2025–2026 program.

From a technical perspective, Newell described the company’s share price as entering an early accumulation phase, pointing to chart patterns, flattening moving averages, and reduced selling pressure. He identified a breakout range between CA$0.14 and CA$0.16 and referenced an initial price objective near CA$0.20. The stock has since surpassed CA$0.20, and Newell noted further upside potential toward CA$0.30 and CA$0.40 under favorable market and company-specific conditions.

Earlier the same day, Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. also issued a positive outlook on the company. Ballanger stated that he added Green Bridge Metals to his portfolio following a review of the Serpentine project and a discussion with the company’s chief executive officer. He described the Duluth Complex as “one of the most highly-prospective regions on the planet” and pointed to the geological setting and established infrastructure as key attributes.

Ballanger also drew attention to the company’s titanium exposure, noting that titanium appeared on the U.S. Geological Survey’s 2025 List of Critical Minerals. He stated, “Owning a developer with a focus on a critical metal (titanium) accomplishes” the objective of maintaining portfolio exposure to strategic assets that were not correlated with traditional markets. Ballanger referenced U.S. government funding initiatives that allocated US$37.5 million in 2025 toward titanium development and noted upcoming drill programs at the South Contact Zone and Serpentine as milestones in the company’s progression.

Multiple Exploration Streams Underway

Green Bridge Metals is undertaking several initiatives across its South Contact District portfolio, including both follow-up work at Titac and new exploration at additional project areas.

At Titac, the current Phase 1 drill program is designed to determine whether copper mineralization is confined to the Oxide Ultramafic Intrusion or extends into adjacent layered mafic intrusions. Subject to results, subsequent phases may include additional drilling at Titac South to assess continuity and extent of copper mineralization, initial drill testing at Titac North, and testing of a newly identified deep conductive and magnetic anomaly south of the current target area.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

	Retail: 73.86%
	Institutions: 15%
	Strategic Investors: 10%
	Management & Insiders: 1.14%

73.9%

15.0%

10.0%

^*Share Structure as of 1/20/2026

Beyond Titac, the company is also advancing its Serpentine project. The company has outlined a longer-term exploration framework that includes up to 25,500 meters of infill drilling to be completed in multiple phases, along with pilot-scale metallurgical testing and work aimed at increasing the copper-equivalent grade by expanding known high-grade zones. The total multi-year exploration program has been estimated at approximately US$11.8 million. According to the company’s investor presentation, the project is permitted for exploration drilling and is near well-developed infrastructure.  Additional work at the Skibo prospect includes completion of historical core sampling and evaluation of cobalt and platinum group element byproducts. Historical results from Skibo include intervals such as 3.0 meters of 1.6% Cu, 0.4% Ni, and 18.3 g/t PGE, and 153 meters of 0.28% Cu, 0.15% Ni, and 0.37 g/t PGE.exploration activities at Serpentine are permitted for near-term work, and the project is located in a jurisdiction with existing road, rail, and processing infrastructure.

Ownership and Share Structure²

Encampment Minerals, a strategic partner and asset vendor, holds approximately 10% of Green Bridge. Four institutional investors collectively own 15% of the float. Management and insiders own a total of 1.14%, including CEO David Suda, who holds 2 million shares.

Green Bridge Metals has 196,758,632 shares outstanding and a market capitalization of CA$30 million. The company has a 52-week trading range of CA$0.08-CA$0.26.

Important Disclosures:

Green Bridge is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$3,000 and US$6,000.
As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Green Bridge.
James Guttman wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Disclosure for the quote from the John Newell article published on December 26, 2025

For the quoted article (published on December 26, 2025), the Company has paid Street Smart, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, between US$3,500.
Author Certification and Compensation: [John Newell of John Newell and Associates] was retained and compensated as an independent contractor by Street Smart for writing this article. Mr. Newell holds a Chartered Investment Management (CIM) designation (2015) and a U.S. Portfolio Manager designation (2015). The recommendations and opinions expressed in this content reflect the personal, independent, and objective views of the author regarding any and all of the companies discussed. No part of the compensation received by the author was, is, or will be directly or indirectly tied to the specific recommendations or views expressed.

John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

Financial News Metals

27 Jan

Precious metals and gas prices continue to rise.

By JustMarkets

On Monday, the US stock indices posted solid gains. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.64%, while the S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.50%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.43%. Growth was driven primarily by the technology and communication services sectors: shares of Apple, Meta, and Microsoft strengthened significantly ahead of their financial results, whereas the consumer goods sector lagged due to a decline in Tesla stock. Market focus shifted to Wednesday’s Fed meeting and speculation about the potential appointment of a new Chairman, as well as the risk of a renewed US government “shutdown” over budget disagreements. Additional uncertainty was fueled by trade threats against Canada over its potential rapprochement with China, despite Ottawa’s efforts to de-escalate the situation.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) stabilized near 1.37 against the US dollar, halting its rally near monthly highs amid a balance of supporting and restraining factors. On the one hand, the currency continues to be supported by rising oil prices, driven by a supply crunch in high-sulfur fuel amid slowing exports from Russia, disruptions in key US regions, and lower shipments from Venezuela to China. On the other hand, further upside potential is limited by rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Pressure on CAD resumed following President Trump’s threats to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian imports should Ottawa pursue closer ties with China.

European equity markets mostly rose on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) climbed 0.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.15%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.78%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 0.05% yesterday. Despite recent easing of concerns about US rhetoric on Greenland and the risk of a transatlantic trade conflict, the broader geopolitical backdrop remained tense. Macro data from Germany provided no surprises: the Ifo Business Climate Index remained at 87.6 in January, missing expectations for growth.

On Tuesday, Silver (XAG) prices surged by more than 6%, climbing above $110 per ounce and continuing a record-breaking rally. The spike was driven by a combination of geopolitical and trade risks, alongside a reallocation of capital from sovereign bonds and currencies into precious metals as safe-haven assets. Market tension was further exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s statements about a possible tariff hike on South Korean goods from 15% to 25% due to delays in ratifying a trade agreement.

Palladium (XPD) prices rose above $2,000 per ounce, reaching a three-year high as supply concerns intensified due to heightened geopolitical risks. The primary catalyst was reports of potential 100% tariffs on Canadian goods in the event of its trade rapprochement with China, fueling fears of supply disruptions to North America, given Canada’s role as a major global producer. Additional market support came from a UBS forecast revision that raised price targets, citing steady investment inflows. Demand also strengthened in China following the launch of yuan-denominated platinum futures in Guangzhou, boosting interest in platinum group metals.

The US Natural Gas (XNG) prices soared by approximately 20%, exceeding $6.3 per MMBtu, marking a high since December 2022 and continuing an extreme rally driven by weather factors. Since the beginning of last week, the increase has exceeded 90%, following a record jump of nearly 70%, which was the strongest weekly gain since records began in 1990. Extreme cold has simultaneously hit supply and sharply increased demand for heating and electricity. Frigid weather knocked out about 10% of US gas production capacity, with average January production falling from December records and daily output dropping to two-year lows. Market focus remains on the duration of these production disruptions, as their prolonged nature could lead to further price increases.

Asian markets traded with mixed results yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.79%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a result of 0.13%. On Tuesday morning, Hong Kong and Chinese stocks continued to rise. Support was broad-based, with the largest contribution coming from the financial sector, which grew by about 2% after Beijing announced intentions to deepen the integration of mainland Chinese and Hong Kong financial markets. Further positive sentiment was provided by Chinese macro data: industrial profits in 2025 grew by 0.6% year-on-year, a notable acceleration from the 0.1% growth recorded during the January-November period.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,950.23 +34.62 (+0.50%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,412.40 +313.69 (+0.64%)

DAX (DE40) 24,933.08 +32.37 (+0.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,148.85 +5.41 (+0.053%)

USD Index 97.07 -0.53% (-0.55%)

News feed for: 2026.01.27

Australia NAB Business Confidence at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 19:00 (GMT+2). – EUR (LOW)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

27 Jan

USD/JPY on Pause: Yen Slows After Sharp Rally

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY settled at 154.29 on Tuesday, with the yen pausing its rally after a notable surge of nearly 3.2% in the previous two sessions. This move was driven by growing concerns about a possible coordinated currency intervention between Japan and the US.

The market was boosted by news that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had requested USD/JPY levels from dealers on Friday. At the same time, Japanese officials confirmed that they were in close communication with the US on currency policy and potential market actions.

However, Bank of Japan (BoJ) data suggested that the sharp yen appreciation on Friday was unlikely to be due to direct intervention. This speculation intensified the market’s reaction and speculative positioning.

The yen continued to receive support from the broader weakness of the US dollar, driven by rising geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties, as well as expectations that US President Donald Trump might replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell with a softer candidate, further pressuring the US currency.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has formed a correction wave following the previous decline. A continuation of the growth wave to the 155.00 level is possible today. After this rise, a rebound from the resistance level is expected, with the first target for a further decline at 153.00, followed by 152.00. This scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, as the histogram is below zero and rising, with the signal line likely to cross the histogram and turn upwards soon.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is testing the 153.80 mark and forming a growth wave. If the price tests the 155.00 level and rebounds, further declines could be expected, with the first support at 153.00 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this, as its signal lines continue to decline towards the 50.0 level. A break of this level would signal a continuation of the downward trend.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has paused its rapid ascent amid speculation of potential currency intervention. Despite a weaker US dollar and geopolitical risks, the yen’s recent strength is being tested. Technically, while the immediate outlook points to a possible short-term rise to 155.00, a rebound and subsequent decline towards 153.00 could be on the horizon, depending on how market sentiment evolves.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Jan

Silver Surges Past $108 for the First Time. Natural Gas Hits $6/MMBtu

By JustMarkets

On Friday, US stock markets closed mixed. The Dow Jones (US30) declined by 0.58% (-0.74% for the week), while the S&P 500 (US500) edged up 0.03% (-0.65% for the week). The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) gained 0.34% (-0.41% for the week). Energy companies led the day’s gains, and the technology segment was bolstered by Nvidia (+1.5%) and AMD (+2.3%) following signals from China regarding potential orders for H200 AI chips. Conversely, a sharp 17% drop in Intel shares, triggered by a weak forecast and news of operational challenges, weighed on the semiconductor sector and pulled down Broadcom, limiting overall gains. Macroeconomic data provided a conflicting picture: the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised upward to a multi-month high, yet preliminary S&P Global PMIs pointed to a moderate slowdown in both services and manufacturing.

Geopolitical tensions escalated as US President Donald Trump threatened Canada with 100% tariffs on all exports to the US if Ottawa moves forward with a trade agreement with China, labeling such a move a “strategic error.” This follows Canada’s recent steps toward Beijing, including agreements to increase Chinese EV imports. Prime Minister Mark Carney stated he expects China to lower tariffs on Canadian canola following his recent meeting with Xi Jinping, the first visit by a Canadian leader to Beijing in eight years.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened past the 17.4 mark against the dollar, returning to its June 2024 highs after a brief correction. Previously, the currency faced pressure from a global flight to safety amid US-Europe trade frictions sparked by Trump’s statements on Greenland. The peso’s recovery highlights its fundamental resilience, supported by the Bank of Mexico’s hawkish stance. The suspension of the easing cycle, with the key rate held at 7%, provides attractive real yields and continues to draw foreign investor interest into local debt instruments.

European equity markets mostly trended lower on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.18% (-0.16% for the week), while France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell 0.07% (+0.22% for the week). Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.67% (+0.23% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) slipped 0.07% (-0.90% for the week). In a sudden pivot at the Davos conference, President Trump temporarily walked back threats of tariffs against European countries that opposed the US acquisition of Greenland, citing a “framework deal” with NATO. While this eased immediate political tension, uncertainty regarding Washington’s long-term strategy remains. Macro data showed steady private-sector expansion in the Eurozone, as reflected in PMIs, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will maintain its current policy.

Silver (XAG) made history by breaking the $ 108-per-ounce threshold, driven by a weakening dollar, geopolitical strife, and economic uncertainty. The US dollar came under pressure as markets worried Europe might leverage its vast US assets in response to the Greenland crisis. Beyond macro factors, silver’s rally was fueled by a massive short squeeze, robust retail demand, and China’s tightening of export controls on industrial metals.

On Monday, US Natural Gas prices (XNG) surged by over 17%, exceeding $6/MMBtu for the first time since late 2022, as a historic winter storm gripped the nation. Prices have nearly doubled in the last two weeks, the largest gain on record, due to forecasts for sustained arctic temperatures. Inventory reports showed a larger-than-expected withdrawal of 120 billion cubic feet, and analysts anticipate further drawdowns as heating demand intensifies.
Asian markets showed mixed performance last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.86%, while the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 2.99%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.41%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed the week down 0.27%.

The Singapore dollar (SGD) has strengthened to approximately 1.27 against the US dollar, marking its highest level since October 2014. This appreciation is fueled by capital inflows into safe-haven assets and market expectations that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will maintain its current policy stance. The currency remains in steady demand due to its “safe haven” status, underpinned by Singapore’s AAA-rated bond market, high stock market dividend yields, and predictable economic policy amid heightened global uncertainty.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,915.61 +2.26 (+0.03%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,098.71 −285.30 (−0.58%)

DAX (DE40) 24,900.71 +44.24 (+0.18%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,143.44 −6.61 (−0.07%)

USD Index 97.46 -0.90% (-0.92%)

News feed for: 2026.01.26

German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

26 Jan

Gold Surges Above 5,000 USD: Safe-Haven Demand Explodes

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold has broken through the historic 5,000 USD per troy ounce mark, rising above 5,075 USD for the first time. The metal continues its record rally as investors aggressively shift into defensive assets amid escalating trade and geopolitical uncertainty.

The main catalyst was renewed rhetoric from US President Donald Trump. Over the weekend, he stated that Washington would seek sovereignty over parts of Greenland where US military bases are located. These comments reignited market anxiety, coming just days after a temporary easing of tariff threats against several European countries.

Further pressure on global markets followed Trump’s warning to Canada. He stated that all Canadian exports to the US could face 100% tariffs if Ottawa finalises a trade agreement with China. The statement came a week after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a preliminary deal with Beijing, which involves a mutual reduction in tariffs.

Geopolitical risks also remain elevated. Ukraine and Russia held another round of US-mediated talks without reaching an agreement, although both sides signalled readiness to continue negotiations next weekend.

As a result, rising geopolitical tensions and aggressive trade threats have sharply increased capital inflows into gold, further strengthening its role as the primary global safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAUUSD chart, gold has confidently broken above 5,000 and is now developing a strong bullish wave towards the 5,215 level. After reaching this area, a corrective pullback towards 5,000 is possible. The MACD confirms strong upside momentum, with the signal line at highs and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, the price has broken and consolidated above the 5,050 level, which is acting as support. The trend is expected to extend towards 5,200. The Stochastic oscillator supports this bullish scenario, with the signal line above 50 and continuing to rise.

Conclusion

Gold has entered a new historical phase above 5,000 USD, driven by escalating geopolitical risks and aggressive US trade rhetoric. As long as uncertainty around global politics and trade persists, gold is likely to remain strongly supported, with further upside potential despite the risk of short-term technical corrections.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

25 Jan

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals markets was Steel with an increase by 649 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-6,846 contracts), Gold (-6,468 contracts), Platinum (-2,470 contracts), Copper (-866 contracts) and with Palladium (-337 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

5-Day Metals Market Price Performance led by Platinum

Platinum leads the past five days metals price performance as Platinum shot up by over 20%, followed by Palladium which jumped by 13.10% over that same period. Silver continued its hot streak with 11.51% gains over the past five days, followed by Gold with a rise of 8.19%. Steel was also up by 5.3% in that timeframe. Copper was the only market on the downside this week, with a minor dip by -0.68%.

The metals markets have been raging higher over the past 30 days, with Silver up by over 68%, followed by Platinum, which has seen a 67.39% gain in 30 days. Palladium is up by 37% in the past 30 days, while gold has run 18% higher and Copper is up by approximately 12%. Steel rounds out the past 30 days leaders with an approximately 10% gain.

The leaders over the past 90 days have been Silver, with a 139% gain, followed by Platinum, which is up by over 103%. Palladium has seen a 75% gain in the past 90 days, followed by Gold with a 35% rise, Copper with a 25% rise, and Steel is up over 40% in that same time. Truly an unprecedented time for metals strength.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (100 percent) and Palladium (98 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (82.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores with Gold (71.1 percent) following.

On the lower side, Silver (44 percent) and Platinum (49 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels of the metals currently although both markets are right around the midpoint for the past 3-years (50 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (71.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (73.7 percent)
Silver (44.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (53.2 percent)
Copper (82.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (83.0 percent)
Platinum (48.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (55.0 percent)
Palladium (97.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (100.0 percent)
Steel (100.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (96.5 percent)

Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (20 percent) and Gold (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Palladium (6 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Silver (-26 percent), Platinum (-12 percent) and Copper (-9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (8.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.8 percent)
Silver (-26.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-8.6 percent)
Copper (-9.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.0 percent)
Platinum (-11.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (4.0 percent)
Palladium (6.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (9.4 percent)
Steel (19.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (27.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 244,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 251,238 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.0	16.3	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	71.1	3.3
– Net Position:	244,770	-289,689	44,919
– Gross Longs:	295,772	85,869	62,136
– Gross Shorts:	51,002	375,558	17,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	20.1	97.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-10.9	18.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,060 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	28.8	23.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	59.3	9.5
– Net Position:	25,214	-46,389	21,175
– Gross Longs:	42,965	43,723	35,608
– Gross Shorts:	17,751	90,112	14,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	49.2	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.0	18.0	27.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 52,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,441 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	30.9	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	55.8	3.0
– Net Position:	52,575	-69,186	16,611
– Gross Longs:	101,631	86,077	24,890
– Gross Shorts:	49,056	155,263	8,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.2	10.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	6.0	15.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.3	25.1	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	52.7	4.9
– Net Position:	15,124	-21,782	6,658
– Gross Longs:	39,709	19,867	10,541
– Gross Shorts:	24,585	41,649	3,883
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	50.3	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	9.0	14.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.3	28.5	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.7	42.9	7.4
– Net Position:	888	-2,762	1,874
– Gross Longs:	9,644	5,457	3,301
– Gross Shorts:	8,756	8,219	1,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.8	0.8	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-6.4	4.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 11,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	58.1	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.8	90.4	0.5
– Net Position:	11,671	-12,098	427
– Gross Longs:	14,235	21,805	611
– Gross Shorts:	2,564	33,903	184
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	89.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.6	-20.5	33.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

25 Jan

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower overall this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (214,865 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (132,601 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (79,758 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (13,920 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-137,251 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-70,989 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-36,905 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-23,725 contracts) and with the SOFR 1-Month (-689 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bond Market Price were relatively unchanged on the week

The bond market price changes this week were relatively muted. The one-month SOFR and the three-month SOFR markets were a bit higher over the past 5 days at 0.06% and 0.04% gains, respectively. The two-year bond also edged up by 0.04%, while the Fed Funds was virtually unchanged.

The five-year bond edged lower at -0.16, followed by the 10-year note, which saw a minor dip of -0.36, and the long US Treasury bond was lower by -0.43. Over the past 30 days, the bond markets have not seen much movement, with no market seeing a move higher or lower by over one percent. Over the past 90 days, the Fed Funds is up by 1.80% while on the downside, the 10-year note is lower by -1.23% and the long US Treasury bond is lower by -2.47%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (75 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (74 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The 10-Year Bonds (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (26 percent), the 5-Year Bond (26 percent), the SOFR 1-Month (30 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (30 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (44.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (64.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (25.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (17.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (25.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (19.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (58.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (32.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (46.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (42.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (75.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (88.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (74.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (83.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (30.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (30.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (29.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (33.2 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (31 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-55 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-55.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-31.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (16.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (12.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (8.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (3.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (31.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (34.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (6.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (15.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-8.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (19.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (12.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-15.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-10.6 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -77,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -137,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	62.2	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	59.6	1.5
– Net Position:	-77,811	57,423	20,388
– Gross Longs:	367,713	1,368,009	53,049
– Gross Shorts:	445,524	1,310,586	32,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	53.0	89.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-55.2	53.0	21.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -595,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -70,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -524,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	56.8	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	52.2	0.3
– Net Position:	-595,601	596,564	-963
– Gross Longs:	1,736,807	7,384,520	33,194
– Gross Shorts:	2,332,408	6,787,956	34,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	70.4	77.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.4	15.5	-0.2

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -273,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -273,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	69.6	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	51.7	0.0
– Net Position:	-273,872	273,962	-90
– Gross Longs:	249,472	1,063,233	174
– Gross Shorts:	523,344	789,271	264
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.0	70.0	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-19.5	2.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,225,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 79,758 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,304,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	74.1	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	49.8	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,225,122	1,115,768	109,354
– Gross Longs:	752,084	3,395,299	245,486
– Gross Shorts:	1,977,206	2,279,531	136,132
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.6	75.4	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-18.6	0.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,136,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 132,601 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,269,120 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	81.9	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.6	52.4	4.4
– Net Position:	-2,136,519	1,990,497	146,022
– Gross Longs:	603,975	5,528,980	440,705
– Gross Shorts:	2,740,494	3,538,483	294,683
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.7	73.8	68.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-13.5	-0.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -655,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 214,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -870,505 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	73.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	63.9	6.2
– Net Position:	-655,640	573,096	82,544
– Gross Longs:	861,222	4,248,520	441,892
– Gross Shorts:	1,516,862	3,675,424	359,348
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	41.3	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	3.0	-17.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -235,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -249,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	78.6	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	64.8	13.1
– Net Position:	-235,282	352,921	-117,639
– Gross Longs:	308,830	2,021,438	219,966
– Gross Shorts:	544,112	1,668,517	337,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.7	68.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.0	-15.0	-54.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -36,905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	76.1	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	81.3	7.1
– Net Position:	-23,070	-93,965	117,035
– Gross Longs:	170,563	1,395,383	247,802
– Gross Shorts:	193,633	1,489,348	130,767
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.3	16.2	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-0.6	-9.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -258,822 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -235,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	83.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	71.5	8.4
– Net Position:	-258,822	253,269	5,553
– Gross Longs:	149,136	1,791,990	187,039
– Gross Shorts:	407,958	1,538,721	181,486
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	39.1	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	16.4	-20.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

25 Jan

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by WTI Crude & Heating Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude & Heating Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude (20,664 contracts) with Heating Oil (1,533 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (17 contracts) also having a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Brent Oil (-8,263 contracts), Natural Gas (-7,889 contracts) and with Gasoline (-1,747 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Natural Gas leads Weekly Energy Price Performances

The energy market price performance was led by the surging Natural Gas price. Natural Gas jumped higher in the past five days by over 35% while the Bloomberg Commodity Index was the next highest, with a 5.96% gain on the week. Heating Oil was up by over 5% while WTI Crude Oil rose by 3.96%, followed by Brent Oil with a 3.75% rise, and then Gasoline which rose by 3.25%.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index has been on a strong uptrend and is the price leader for the past 30 days with an 11% gain. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is the leader over the past 90 days as well with the Index being higher by approximately 18% in that time-frame.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Index, Gasoline, & Heating Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Index (80.6 percent), Gasoline (65.3 percent) and Heating Oil (64.6 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, Natural Gas (0.0 percent) and WTI Crude (12.6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Brent Oil (21.1 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (12.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (5.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (21.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (32.8 percent)
Natural Gas (0.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (5.5 percent)
Gasoline (65.3 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (67.2 percent)
Heating Oil (64.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (62.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (80.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (80.5 percent)

Bloomberg Index & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bloomberg Index (70.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. WTI Crude (6.6 percent) is the next highest positive mover with a much more modest gain in the latest trends data.

Natural Gas (-60.9 percent), Gasoline (-24.1 percent) and Brent Oil (-13.1 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (6.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (2.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-13.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-13.6 percent)
Natural Gas (-60.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-41.4 percent)
Gasoline (-24.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-32.8 percent)
Heating Oil (-5.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-11.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (70.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (61.5 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 78,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 20,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	41.8	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	46.8	2.5
– Net Position:	78,792	-97,047	18,255
– Gross Longs:	284,809	821,803	67,044
– Gross Shorts:	206,017	918,850	48,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.6	87.2	38.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-5.7	-3.7

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,150 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	37.0	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	20.8	2.3
– Net Position:	-42,150	38,875	3,275
– Gross Longs:	48,278	88,910	8,766
– Gross Shorts:	90,428	50,035	5,491
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.1	78.7	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	11.8	17.2

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -193,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,889 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -185,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	37.5	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	26.2	3.0
– Net Position:	-193,490	182,060	11,430
– Gross Longs:	241,131	604,854	59,623
– Gross Shorts:	434,621	422,794	48,193
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-60.9	65.5	-25.8

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,747 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,527 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	48.4	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	65.8	3.9
– Net Position:	70,780	-79,205	8,425
– Gross Longs:	109,470	220,697	26,230
– Gross Shorts:	38,690	299,902	17,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.3	32.6	70.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.1	23.9	-11.4

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,533 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,511 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	48.9	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	57.3	7.8
– Net Position:	16,044	-32,938	16,894
– Gross Longs:	62,563	193,349	47,815
– Gross Shorts:	46,519	226,287	30,921
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.6	35.2	64.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	10.2	-17.8

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,781 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,798 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	69.6	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	66.9	0.0
– Net Position:	-5,781	5,143	638
– Gross Longs:	52,210	131,824	676
– Gross Shorts:	57,991	126,681	38
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	17.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.6	17.7	47.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	70.8	-70.7	0.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

25 Jan

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (29,678 contracts) with Lean Hogs (14,919 contracts), Live Cattle (3,410 contracts) and Cotton (1,607 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-23,547 contracts), Corn (-18,281 contracts), Sugar (-12,637 contracts) Cocoa (-8,378 contracts), Wheat (-7,705 contracts), Coffee (-2,989 contracts) and with Soybeans (-818 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Price Performance was led this week by Wheat and Soybean Oil

Wheat led the soft commodities price performances of the week with a 3.39% increase over the past five days. Soybean Oil came in a close second with a 3.38% rise over the same period. Lean Hogs had an up week with a 2.19% rise, while Corn was also higher by 2.17%. Soybeans rose by 1.74% on the week, Sugar gained by 0.74%, and Live Cattle rounded out the gainers with a 0.73% increase.

Cocoa saw a dip by -0.78%, followed by Cotton with a decline of -0.90%, and Coffee with a -1.30% decrease. Soybean Meal saw the biggest fall this week with a -4.74% slide.

The price performance leaders over the past 30 days have been Lean Hogs, up by 9.12%, and Soybean Oil, up over 6% in that period. Cocoa is by far the biggest leader over the past 90 days with a 31.44% gain.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (66 percent) and Lean Hogs (66 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (57 percent) and Coffee (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (0 percent) and Sugar (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Wheat (22 percent) and the Cotton (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (29.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (31.7 percent)
Sugar (4.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (7.3 percent)
Coffee (53.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (56.1 percent)
Soybeans (56.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (56.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (46.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (29.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (24.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.2 percent)
Live Cattle (66.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (62.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (66.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (55.6 percent)
Cotton (23.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.7 percent)
Cocoa (0.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.9 percent)
Wheat (21.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (28.5 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (24 percent) and Live Cattle (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (6 percent) and Sugar (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-57 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-35 percent), Soybean Meal (-19 percent) and Corn (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.4 percent)
Sugar (0.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.0 percent)
Coffee (-5.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-2.6 percent)
Soybeans (-35.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-41.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-2.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-21.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (-18.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-20.2 percent)
Live Cattle (13.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (12.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (24.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.9 percent)
Cotton (6.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.9 percent)
Cocoa (-14.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.1 percent)
Wheat (-57.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-52.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -51,704 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	47.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	43.1	9.5
– Net Position:	-51,704	68,044	-16,340
– Gross Longs:	329,434	786,229	142,160
– Gross Shorts:	381,138	718,185	158,500
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.2	67.5	87.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	17.0	8.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -178,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,637 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,711 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	57.3	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	38.0	8.2
– Net Position:	-178,348	190,230	-11,882
– Gross Longs:	143,656	564,457	69,420
– Gross Shorts:	322,004	374,227	81,302
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	96.7	4.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	0.4	-8.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,752 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	40.6	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	58.3	4.1
– Net Position:	29,763	-30,151	388
– Gross Longs:	56,009	69,268	7,449
– Gross Shorts:	26,246	99,419	7,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.0	49.0	24.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	5.9	-19.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 58,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,947 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	51.4	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	56.1	8.4
– Net Position:	58,129	-39,788	-18,341
– Gross Longs:	173,031	429,894	51,801
– Gross Shorts:	114,902	469,682	70,142
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.6	43.5	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.0	35.3	9.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 4,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 29,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	48.7	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	49.5	4.6
– Net Position:	4,543	-5,045	502
– Gross Longs:	123,574	316,601	30,092
– Gross Shorts:	119,031	321,646	29,590
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.4	56.9	20.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	3.8	-13.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -23,547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 757 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	52.1	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	50.5	5.7
– Net Position:	-22,790	8,261	14,529
– Gross Longs:	112,415	274,052	44,344
– Gross Shorts:	135,205	265,791	29,815
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.3	78.5	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	20.0	-17.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 89,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,410 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.6	33.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	56.7	12.3
– Net Position:	89,349	-77,472	-11,877
– Gross Longs:	147,002	109,484	28,606
– Gross Shorts:	57,653	186,956	40,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.0	27.9	56.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-18.8	7.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 56,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,919 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.3	33.9	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	48.7	8.7
– Net Position:	56,397	-49,048	-7,349
– Gross Longs:	134,411	113,181	21,820
– Gross Shorts:	78,014	162,229	29,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	36.4	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.2	-26.1	3.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,824 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	46.6	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	39.7	3.7
– Net Position:	-25,824	23,415	2,409
– Gross Longs:	92,421	158,038	14,887
– Gross Shorts:	118,245	134,623	12,478
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.7	75.2	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-7.8	27.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -17,874 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	48.9	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	36.0	7.0
– Net Position:	-17,874	18,722	-848
– Gross Longs:	26,157	71,172	9,372
– Gross Shorts:	44,031	52,450	10,220
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	19.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.3	12.4	13.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -93,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	37.6	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	20.1	5.6
– Net Position:	-93,730	90,844	2,886
– Gross Longs:	124,615	195,236	32,217
– Gross Shorts:	218,345	104,392	29,331
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	78.5	71.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-57.4	57.4	40.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

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Archive for Financial News – Page 3

US Policy Shifts Reshape Critical Mineral Supply Landscape

Analysts Point to District-Scale Footprint and Strategic Metals Exposure

Multiple Exploration Streams Underway

Ownership and Share Structure2

News feed for: 2026.01.27

News feed for: 2026.01.26

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

5-Day Metals Market Price Performance led by Platinum

Metals Data:

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

Bond Market Price were relatively unchanged on the week

Bonds Data:

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude & Heating Oil

Natural Gas leads Weekly Energy Price Performances

Energy Data:

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Index, Gasoline, & Heating Oil

Bloomberg Index & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Natural Gas Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs

Soft Commodities Price Performance was led this week by Wheat and Soybean Oil

Soft Commodities Data:

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Ownership and Share Structure²