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COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold, Silver & Platinum

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (28,379 contracts) with Silver (6,828 contracts), Platinum (2,898 contracts), Steel (682 contracts) and Palladium (116 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was Copper with a dip of just -329 contracts.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	505,658	39	200,084	65	-218,592	40	18,508	29
Silver	139,144	31	34,280	67	-47,855	36	13,575	42
Copper	173,233	21	-3,872	28	4,912	76	-1,040	12
Palladium	19,904	65	-10,171	9	10,348	93	-177	31
Platinum	70,437	52	10,034	39	-14,272	64	4,238	25

Strength Scores led by Steel, Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (99 percent), Silver (67 percent) and Gold (65 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (65.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (52.6 percent)
Silver (67.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (57.4 percent)
Copper (27.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.8 percent)
Platinum (38.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.1 percent)
Palladium (8.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.9 percent)
Steel (98.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (95.9 percent)

Gold & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (38 percent) and Platinum (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. All the markets in the metals category have positive trends for the past six weeks.

Move Statistics:
Gold (38.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (44.1 percent)
Silver (20.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (21.6 percent)
Copper (19.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (9.7 percent)
Platinum (22.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (16.6 percent)
Palladium (8.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (6.2 percent)
Steel (21.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (19.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 200,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 28,379 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,705 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.3	22.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	66.1	5.4
– Net Position:	200,084	-218,592	18,508
– Gross Longs:	289,845	115,596	45,650
– Gross Shorts:	89,761	334,188	27,142
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	39.5	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.4	-35.0	9.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 34,280 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.2	29.0	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	63.3	9.4
– Net Position:	34,280	-47,855	13,575
– Gross Longs:	62,880	40,287	26,647
– Gross Shorts:	28,600	88,142	13,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	35.9	41.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-19.7	9.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.2	38.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	36.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-3,872	4,912	-1,040
– Gross Longs:	62,749	67,348	13,309
– Gross Shorts:	66,621	62,436	14,349
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.5	75.7	11.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-15.2	-22.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.6	25.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	45.3	4.5
– Net Position:	10,034	-14,272	4,238
– Gross Longs:	38,438	17,603	7,403
– Gross Shorts:	28,404	31,875	3,165
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.7	64.0	24.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.4	-18.2	-11.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 116 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,287 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	59.2	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.2	7.2	9.0
– Net Position:	-10,171	10,348	-177
– Gross Longs:	4,804	11,790	1,610
– Gross Shorts:	14,975	1,442	1,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	8.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	92.9	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-7.1	-12.6

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 682 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	70.3	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	70.4	0.9
– Net Position:	-233	-30	263
– Gross Longs:	4,967	14,556	453
– Gross Shorts:	5,200	14,586	190
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.6	1.1	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.8	-23.5	46.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

02 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the softs markets this week was Live Cattle (1,201 contracts) with Coffee (224 contracts) and Cotton (176 contracts) also showing small positive gains.

The declines were much great this week and were led by Corn (-33,142 contracts), Soybeans (-23,109 contracts), Wheat (-19,673 contracts), Sugar (-17,061 contracts), Lean Hogs (-8,335 contracts), Soybean Meal (-7,921 contracts), Soybean Oil (-7,272 contracts) and Cocoa (-1,193 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,563,737	15	183,171	11	-206,779	91	23,608	28
Gold	505,658	39	200,084	65	-218,592	40	18,508	29
Silver	139,144	31	34,280	67	-47,855	36	13,575	42
Copper	173,233	21	-3,872	28	4,912	76	-1,040	12
Palladium	19,904	65	-10,171	9	10,348	93	-177	31
Platinum	70,437	52	10,034	39	-14,272	64	4,238	25
Natural Gas	1,312,707	71	-107,889	33	87,193	70	20,696	29
Brent	145,818	24	-39,062	36	35,968	66	3,094	53
Heating Oil	303,447	37	37,349	90	-58,291	18	20,942	67
Soybeans	736,483	43	50,697	14	-30,394	86	-20,303	55
Corn	1,290,429	13	-157,148	0	175,160	100	-18,012	100
Coffee	193,911	13	30,558	59	-32,407	44	1,849	35
Sugar	875,946	43	205,076	65	-249,605	33	44,529	61
Wheat	411,837	72	-97,204	0	98,645	100	-1,441	60

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (83 percent) and Soybean Meal (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (65 percent), Coffee (59 percent) and Soybean Oil (26 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Lean Hogs (9 percent), Cotton (13 percent) and Soybeans (13.5 percent) all came in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.7 percent)
Sugar (64.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (71.0 percent)
Coffee (58.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (58.5 percent)
Soybeans (13.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (22.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (26.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (30.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (74.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (78.6 percent)
Live Cattle (21.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (20.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (8.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (15.8 percent)
Cotton (13.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.2 percent)
Cocoa (83.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (84.3 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (13.7 percent)

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (32 percent) and Soybean Meal (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Live Cattle (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-20 percent), Wheat (-19 percent) and Soybean Oil (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-13.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-8.4 percent)
Sugar (-8.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.2 percent)
Coffee (31.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (47.3 percent)
Soybeans (9.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (19.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-15.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-10.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (30.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (46.7 percent)
Live Cattle (-41.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-49.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-8.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-10.7 percent)
Cotton (-20.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-34.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.1 percent)
Wheat (-19.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -157,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -33,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -124,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	47.7	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	34.2	13.2
– Net Position:	-157,148	175,160	-18,012
– Gross Longs:	251,194	616,045	152,623
– Gross Shorts:	408,342	440,885	170,635
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	12.0	20.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 205,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 222,137 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	41.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	69.8	5.1
– Net Position:	205,076	-249,605	44,529
– Gross Longs:	290,604	361,766	89,368
– Gross Shorts:	85,528	611,371	44,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	33.0	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	8.6	-6.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 30,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	37.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	53.7	4.8
– Net Position:	30,558	-32,407	1,849
– Gross Longs:	64,033	71,780	11,068
– Gross Shorts:	33,475	104,187	9,219
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.8	43.7	35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.5	-31.3	8.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 50,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,109 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	54.0	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	58.2	9.8
– Net Position:	50,697	-30,394	-20,303
– Gross Longs:	138,388	398,034	51,620
– Gross Shorts:	87,691	428,428	71,923
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	85.6	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-6.7	-12.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,272 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	47.7	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	51.7	5.3
– Net Position:	14,039	-19,288	5,249
– Gross Longs:	99,192	230,705	30,895
– Gross Shorts:	85,153	249,993	25,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.3	72.6	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.5	13.2	4.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 130,628 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 138,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	33.3	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.0	61.0	6.2
– Net Position:	130,628	-150,026	19,398
– Gross Longs:	174,164	180,980	53,313
– Gross Shorts:	43,536	331,006	33,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	25.9	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.5	-31.0	2.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 39,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	38.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	51.9	12.6
– Net Position:	39,857	-36,327	-3,530
– Gross Longs:	78,406	105,202	30,770
– Gross Shorts:	38,549	141,529	34,300
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	78.3	70.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.5	39.7	31.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -25,276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	39.7	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	25.7	10.5
– Net Position:	-25,276	27,193	-1,917
– Gross Longs:	54,404	76,877	18,358
– Gross Shorts:	79,680	49,684	20,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.9	94.6	74.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	9.5	-1.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,184 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	45.4	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	47.6	7.0
– Net Position:	6,184	-4,226	-1,958
– Gross Longs:	61,638	87,247	11,436
– Gross Shorts:	55,454	91,473	13,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	87.5	4.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.4	22.9	-40.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,839 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.2	25.0	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	50.8	4.4
– Net Position:	71,646	-73,777	2,131
– Gross Longs:	129,235	71,629	14,652
– Gross Shorts:	57,589	145,406	12,521
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	17.9	17.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	1.8	-19.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -97,204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,531 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	40.0	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.5	16.0	8.8
– Net Position:	-97,204	98,645	-1,441
– Gross Longs:	114,707	164,692	34,939
– Gross Shorts:	211,911	66,047	36,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	24.6	-22.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

02 Dec

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & DowJones-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (15,053 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (9,700 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (2,234 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (1,753 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-3,786 contracts), the VIX (-105 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-121 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,279,894	28	-65,027	55	21,959	43	43,068	54
Nikkei 225	17,204	43	-2,360	50	1,504	45	856	39
Nasdaq-Mini	293,315	75	7,278	50	-10,902	31	3,624	81
DowJones-Mini	98,357	61	-24,608	27	29,427	78	-4,819	20
VIX	390,752	67	-47,536	78	48,576	19	-1,040	91
Nikkei 225 Yen	65,679	65	15,065	81	4,801	24	-19,866	43

Strength Scores led by the VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (78 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (55 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the DowJones-Mini (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (77.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (77.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (55.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (52.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (26.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (6.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (50.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (46.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (42.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (41.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (49.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (50.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (2.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (5.4 percent)

DowJones-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (23 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the VIX (-16 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-16.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-21.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-0.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (2.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (22.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (0.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-10.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-4.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-6.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (6.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-0.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-4.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-30.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-28.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -47,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	48.9	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	36.5	7.0
– Net Position:	-47,536	48,576	-1,040
– Gross Longs:	90,304	191,025	26,270
– Gross Shorts:	137,840	142,449	27,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.5	19.5	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	11.2	38.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,027 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,053 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	73.3	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	72.3	9.5
– Net Position:	-65,027	21,959	43,068
– Gross Longs:	281,709	1,671,401	258,805
– Gross Shorts:	346,736	1,649,442	215,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	42.9	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	-2.9	9.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,308 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	65.0	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.6	35.1	16.8
– Net Position:	-24,608	29,427	-4,819
– Gross Longs:	22,196	63,963	11,679
– Gross Shorts:	46,804	34,536	16,498
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.9	77.8	20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.9	-18.3	1.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,234 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	56.7	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	60.4	13.3
– Net Position:	7,278	-10,902	3,624
– Gross Longs:	78,702	166,329	42,502
– Gross Shorts:	71,424	177,231	38,878
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	30.8	81.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	1.5	15.0

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -55,493 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,753 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	80.6	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	71.1	4.2
– Net Position:	-55,493	52,149	3,344
– Gross Longs:	75,264	444,001	26,746
– Gross Shorts:	130,757	391,852	23,402
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	58.4	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	0.9	26.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -121 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	65.1	21.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	56.4	16.5
– Net Position:	-2,360	1,504	856
– Gross Longs:	2,250	11,204	3,693
– Gross Shorts:	4,610	9,700	2,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.8	45.0	39.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	1.3	-1.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -62,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.8	91.4	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	77.3	1.9
– Net Position:	-62,032	57,252	4,780
– Gross Longs:	19,593	372,693	12,373
– Gross Shorts:	81,625	315,441	7,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.0	96.1	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.9	29.2	11.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

01 Dec

There is still disagreement on production quotas within OPEC+. Inflationary pressures are easing in the Eurozone

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 1.47%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.38%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.23% on Thursday. Stocks found support in US economic reports that showed jobless claims rose to a 2-year high and October core PCE rose less than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve has stopped raising interest rates.

Weekly jobless claims rose by 86,000 to a 2-year high of 1.927 million, indicating a weaker labor market than expectations of 1.865 million. In addition, the October core PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, declined to 3.5% y/y from 3.7% y/y in September, which matched expectations and was the slowest rate of increase in 2 years. However, hawkish comments from New York Fed President Williams and San Francisco Fed President Daly pushed bond yields higher and negatively impacted tech stocks as they dampened speculation that the Fed will soon cut interest rates.

Markets rate the probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on December 12-13 at 4% and the probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on January 30-31, 2024 as 0%. Markets also factor in a 47% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the March 19-20, 2024 FOMC meeting and a more than 100% probability of the same 25 bps rate cut at the April 30-May 1, 2024 FOMC meeting. As recently as a week ago, the probability of a rate cut in May was 57%.

Salesforce Inc (CRM) shares are up more than 6% at the open, leading the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials higher after the company reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.11, better than the consensus of $2.06 and raised its 2024 adjusted EPS guidance. Shares of Snap (SNAP) are up more than 7% after investment bank Jefferies upgraded the stock to a “hold” from a “buy” with a $16 price target. Pinterest (PINS) is up by more than 3% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to a “buy” from a “hold” rating with a $41 price target.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.30%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.59%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.04%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.41%.

European stocks rose after the Eurozone’s consumer price index rose less than expected, pushing down 10-year German bond yields. A weaker-than-expected Eurozone CPI report for November reinforced expectations that the ECB is done raising interest rates. Eurozone CPI for November fell to 2.4% y/y from 2.9% y/y, better than expectations of 2.7% y/y and the smallest increase in 2 years. Core CPI for November also declined to 3.6% y/y from 4.2% y/y in October, better than expectations of 3.9% y/y. Weakening price pressures indicated that swap markets have priced in a 100% ECB rate cut of 25 bps for the ECB meeting on April 11.

On Thursday, OPEC+ countries agreed to cut oil production by 1.0 million bpd through June 2024. However, crude prices fell on the news as no details were provided on how the cut would be distributed among the organization’s representatives and how Russia’s 300,000 bpd export cut would be factored into the new totals. Delegates said the final details of the new agreement, including national production levels, would be announced by each country separately rather than in the usual OPEC+ communiqué. Investors reacted with disappointment as the rift between Angola (Africa’s second-largest oil producer) and other OPEC+ representatives persists and is a bearish factor, signaling more disputes within. On Thursday, Saudi Arabia said it would maintain its unilateral oil production cut of 1.0 million bpd through June 2024. The move would keep Saudi oil output at around 9 million bpd, the lowest in three years.

Natural gas prices declined for the fifth consecutive session on Thursday. The EIA’s unexpected increase in weekly natural gas inventories on Thursday pressured prices. The EIA reported that natural gas inventories rose by 10 bcf last week versus expectations of a 6 bcf decline. High inventories due to carryover balances from the mild winter of 2022/23 and weak heating demand have led to lower natural gas prices. As of November 26, natural gas storage in Europe is 97% full, above the 5-year seasonal average.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up by 0.50% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.29% on Thursday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.74%.

Economic news from Japan on Thursday was mixed for the JP225 index. On the bearish side, October retail sales unexpectedly fell by 1.6% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of a 0.4% m/m increase and was the biggest decline in 2 years. In contrast, the consumer confidence index for November unexpectedly rose by 0.4 to 36.1, stronger than expectations of a decline to 35.6. In addition, industrial production for October rose by 1.0% m/m, stronger than expectations of 0.8% m/m and the largest increase in the last 4 months.

In China, Caixin’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.7 in November, beating expectations of 49.3 and sharply improving from the 49.6 seen in the previous month. The reading contradicts the government’s PMI data released on Thursday, which showed a larger-than-expected decline in manufacturing activity. However, the Caixin survey differs from the government survey in its coverage, as it focuses more on small private enterprises, as opposed to the large state-owned enterprises covered by the official survey. Investors typically use both surveys to get a broader picture of the Chinese economy.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,567.80 +17.22 (+0.38%)

Dow Jones (US30) 35,950.89 +520.47 (+1.47%)

DAX (DE40) 16,215.43 +48.98 (+0.30%)

FTSE 100(UK100) 7,453.75 +30.29 (+0.41%)

USD Index 103.52 +0.76 (+0.74%)

News feed for 2023.12.01:

– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Nov

China is once again experiencing a decline in business activity. Oil traders’ attention today on the OPEC+ meeting

By JustMarkets

As of Wednesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.04%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.09%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.16%. Stocks came under moderate pressure yesterday amid hawkish comments from FRB President Richmond Barkin, who said the Fed should keep the possibility of interest rate hikes on the table.

The US Q3 GDP was revised upward, and the Q3 core deflator was revised downward, reinforcing speculation that the US economy continues to grow at a moderate pace with easing price pressures, which would allow the Fed to end its interest rate hike campaign.

General Motors (GM) shares rose more than 9% after the company said it would increase its dividend by 33% and implement a $10 billion share buyback program.

The US personal income and spending data will be released today, as well as the core PCE price index, which is the US Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. PCE inflation is forecast to slow, with the reading expected to fall from 3.7% to 3.5% y/y on an annualized basis. The incoming data will reinforce the view that inflation and the broader economy are cooling. Markets are likely to take this as a sign that the Fed will have to start cutting rates by the summer of 2024.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.09%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.24% on Wednesday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.59%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.43%. Slowing price pressures in Germany and Spain pushed European government bond yields lower on Wednesday and pressured the euro. German inflation fell from 3.8% to 3.2% (3.5% expected), a 2.5-year low. Spanish inflation fell from 3.5% to 3.2% (expectation of 3.7%). Eurozone inflation data will be released today. The ECB’s preferred core consumer price index is expected to fall from 4.2% to 3.9% year-on-year.

The Eurozone Economic Confidence Index for November rose by 0.3 to a 4-month high of 93.8, exceeding expectations of 93.6. ECB Governing Council representative Stournaras warned against premature rate cuts by the ECB, pointing out that current economic data figures seem optimistic.

The OPEC+ group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, will meet today. Disagreements among OPEC+ representatives over oil production levels have caused the group’s meeting to be postponed from Sunday (November 26) to this Thursday (November 30) and put pressure on oil prices. Saudi Arabia, which has unilaterally cut oil production by 1.0 million bpd since July, is now asking other OPEC+ members to lower oil production levels, which has prompted a backlash from some African oil producers, including Angola and Nigeria. OPEC+ delegates have said they are moving toward a compromise but have yet to reach an agreement. The talks are focused on additional production cuts, and if the parties manage to reach an agreement, it would be a green light for oil to continue to push prices higher in the coming weeks.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.26% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.62%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down by 2.08% on Wednesday, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.29%.

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data showed that manufacturing activity in China contracted more than expected in November. Non-manufacturing recorded its weakest monthly growth in 2023, while overall business activity also approached the contraction zone last seen during the height of the COVID-19 crisis. The figures have heightened fears of a slowdown in China’s economy, especially as demand in major exporting countries deteriorates. However, traders are also betting that the trend will attract broader stimulus measures from Beijing.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,550.59 −4.30 (−0.09%)

Dow Jones (US30) 35,430.55 +13.57 (+0.04%)

DAX (DE40) 16,166.45 +173.78 (+1.09%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,423.46 −31.78 (−0.43%)

USD Index 102.86 +0.12 (+0.11%)

News feed for 2023.11.30:

– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– OPEC+ meeting at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 16:05 (GMT+2);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Nov

Brent advances ahead of OPEC+ decision

By JustMarkets

Brent enters squeeze ahead of OPEC+ decision

Will cartel deliver or disappoint?

Supply cuts from OPEC+ could trigger 400-point rally

Brent in ascending triangle and above 21-day SMA

Oil extended gains on Thursday as market focus shifted towards the OPEC+ meeting that was postponed from last week due to internal disagreements.

Brent prices punched above $83 this morning after jumping almost 4% over the last two sessions after a severe storm in the Black Sea region sparked supply concerns. While this development has kept oil prices buoyed, the looming virtual OPEC+ meeting today is likely to influence the global commodity’s outlook.

Given the sharp selloff in oil prices since mid-September, OPEC+ could make further changes to an agreement that already limits supply into 2024. Indeed, oil has been hammered by concerns about weaker economic growth and expectations of a supply surplus in 2024. However, discord over output quotas for African oil-producing countries could act as an obstacle that leads to further delays in negotiations.

Oil prices may weaken if the cartel fails to reach an agreement on production quotas for 2024 or disappoint market expectations for deeper supply cuts.

Should OPEC+ move ahead with deeper supply cuts, this could lend oil bulls fresh support – pushing the global commodity higher as a result.

Technically speaking...

Since the November 16th low at $77.08, the black gold has rallied within an ascending triangle for over 600 points and as of the time of writing sits above its 21-day SMA at around $83.

According to Thomas Bulkowski in his book “Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns”, ascending triangles perform better with upward breakouts, with a 70% chance of meeting their breakout target, and a 17% breakeven failure rate.

Brent bulls may take any deeper production cuts as bullish and rally to the following key resistance levels.

• $83.66: the 261.8 Fibonacci level

• Its 50-day SMA

• $88: A significant price level

The Fibonacci level is drawn from the September 26 low to the September 28 high on a daily time frame.

However, if widely reported disagreements over these quotas continue, we could see brent oil prices fall to test the following support levels.

• $81.67: the 61.8 Fibonacci level

• $81.00: the rising trend line capturing lows from November 16th.

• $75.47: the 423.6 Fibonacci level

By JustMarkets

Energy Financial News

29 Nov

Global bonds rally: investors urged to review portfolios

By George Prior

As global bonds soar at the quickest pace since the 2008 financial crisis, investors need to review their investment portfolios to ensure they are on track for risk tolerance and return objectives.

This is the call-to-action warning from Nigel Green, the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, as sovereign and corporate debt has hit 4.9% this month, the most since it surged 6.2% in December 2008, according to Bloomberg.

He comments: “This rapid jump is attributed to growing speculation that central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, have largely concluded their interest rate hiking cycles.

“The expectation of stable or lower interest rates is prompting investors to seek the relative safety and yield offered by bonds.”

For global investors, the soaring bond market presents both challenges and opportunities.

“Those with significant allocations to fixed-income securities are reaping the benefits of capital appreciation as bond prices rise inversely to yields.

“However, the flip side is the potential for diminishing future returns as yields trend lower. Investors must carefully reassess their fixed-income portfolios to ensure they align with their risk tolerance and return objectives in this shifting environment.”

The bond market rally also has implications for equity markets and overall risk appetite.

Nigel Green says: “As interest rates stabilise or decline, the appeal of higher-yielding assets, such as dividend-paying stocks, will rise. Conversely, sectors that traditionally perform well in a rising rate environment, such as financials, could face headwinds.”

Against this backdrop, investors also face the ongoing challenge of the ‘search for yield.’

With traditional safe-haven assets offering lower returns, “there’s legitimate reason to explore riskier investments in pursuit of higher yields,” says the deVere Group CEO.

Two officials from the US central bank, who were consistently calling for higher interest rates to curb inflation last year, indicated on Tuesday that they are now happy to hold interest rates steady. This strengthens expectations that the Fed’s current hiking agenda is finished.

Many experts also believe that central banks in the UK and eurozone, and elsewhere, could also be done with hiking rates for now.

“The current surge in global bonds, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, signals a significant shift in the monetary policy landscape. For investors around the world, this trend requires a careful reassessment of investment strategies across asset classes,” he concludes.

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Bonds Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

29 Nov

RBNZ kept interest rates at the same level. Inflationary pressures are easing in Australia

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.24%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 0.10%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positively by 0.29% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrials (US30) index rose to a 3-month-high. Stocks rose on Tuesday thanks to dovish comments from Fed spokesman Waller, which lowered the 10-year T-note yield and reinforced expectations that the Fed has stopped raising interest rates. At the same time, the likelihood of a rate cut from the US Fed starting in May-June 2024 is increasing. Fed funds futures suggest about 85 bps of cumulative interest rate cuts by December 2024.

Economic news from the US on Tuesday was mixed for the dollar. On the bearish side, the Richmond Fed’s November manufacturing survey fell from 8 to 5. In addition, the Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index for November rose by 2.9 to 102.0, stronger than expectations of 101.0. Today, the US will release its GDP report for the quarter. The data is expected to be revised upward, which could temporarily support the dollar and put pressure on stock indices.

Warren Buffett confidant Charlie Munger died Tuesday at the age of 99. Munger would have turned 100 on January 1. Despite a well-developed succession plan at the conglomerate, analysts believe such a man will be impossible to replace.

Equity markets in Europe traded yesterday without any dynamics. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.16%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.21% on Tuesday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.70%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.07%.

Germany will release inflation data today. Consumer prices are expected to fall from 3.8% to 3.5% y/y. Lower inflationary pressures may have a negative impact on the euro as it will weaken the ECB’s hawkish rhetoric on inflation.

The representative of the ECB Governing Council and President of the Bundesbank Nagel said yesterday that it is premature for the ECB to discuss interest rate cuts. This complements ECB chief Lagarde’s words on Friday that the ECB has done enough, and now is the time to keep rates at current levels and analyze economic data.

Oil rose on Wednesday amid investor caution ahead of a crucial OPEC+ meeting to decide production policy in the coming months, while supply disruptions caused by a storm in the Black Sea supported prices. OPEC+ will hold an online meeting of ministers on Thursday to discuss production targets for 2024 after the meeting was postponed from November 26. According to some OPEC+ sources, the talks will be difficult, and it is possible that countries may not be able to agree on further production cuts. This would be a negative signal for oil.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.12% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down by 0.96%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.98%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 0.29%.

The Central Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the money rate unchanged at 5.5% on Wednesday but noted that inflation remains too high and that further policy tightening may be needed if price pressures do not ease. The “hawkish” tone of the statement surprised many in the market, leading to a rise in the New Zealand dollar and bond yields. The new center-right government said Wednesday it will begin the legislative process to return the central bank to a single mandate for inflation targeting. The change would remove the requirement for the RBNZ to consider employment levels when setting the money rate and focus solely on inflation.

Australian inflation fell more than expected in October as commodity prices fell and core inflation also declined, confirming the central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged next week. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed the inflation rate fell to 4.9% (5.2% expected) from 5.6% annually. However, financial markets still believe the RBA will maintain its hawkish rhetoric in December. The probability of a further rate hike to 4.60% in the first half of next year is around 50%.

Bank of Japan board spokesman Adachi said it was premature to discuss an exit from negative interest rates, suggesting it could take all next year to determine whether wages will rise enough to abandon ultra-loose monetary policy. The remarks by Adachi, who is considered one of the board’s dovish policymakers, came amid growing market expectations on Wednesday that the BoJ could take short-term interest rates out of negative territory as early as January.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (US500) 4,554.89 +4.46 (+0.098%)

Dow Jones (US30) 35,416.98 +83.51 (+0.24%)

DAX (DE40) 15,992.67 +26.30 (+0.16%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,455.24 −5.46 (−0.073%)

USD index 102.74 −0.46 (−0.45%)

Important events for today:

– Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 03:00 (GMT+2);
– RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement at 03:00 (GMT+2);
– RBNZ Press Conference at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
– US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 20:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

28 Nov

The RBA may take a less hawkish stance. Canadian dollar strengthens amid strong economic data

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) was down by 0.16%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.20%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.07% on Monday.

Monday’s US economic news was weaker than expected and was bearish for both the dollar and the broad equity market. October new home sales fell by 5.6% m/m to 679.000, which was weaker than expectations of 721.000. In addition, the Dallas Fed’s November forecast for overall business activity in the manufacturing sector unexpectedly fell by 0.7 to a 4-month low of minus 19.9, which was weaker than expectations for an increase to minus 16.0. In terms of technical analysis, a divergence has formed in the US stock indices, indicating an impending correction.

Shopify (SHOP) shares rose by more than 3% yesterday after the company reported that merchants set a Black Friday record with sales totaling $4.1 billion. Adobe Analytics (ADBE) raised its Cyber Monday sales forecast to $12.4 billion from an initial forecast of $12 billion after reporting that US shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion online on Black Friday. Additionally, Salesforce Inc. (CRM) data showed that US online sales on Black Friday were up by 9% year-over-year.

As of today, markets are forecasting a 6% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on December 12-13 and a 12% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the January 30-31, 2024 FOMC meeting. Markets also factor in a 15% probability of a minus 25 bps rate cut at the March 19-20, 2024 FOMC meeting and a 57% probability of the same 25 bps rate cut at the April 30-May 1, 2024 FOMC meeting.

The Canadian dollar gained bullish momentum, helped by a better-than-expected retail sales report and a rebound in risk sentiment in the broader market. Canadian retail sales for September rose by 0.6% m/m vs. expectations of 0.0% and a previous decline of 0.1%. Retail sales, excluding automakers, rose by 0.2% vs. a previous decline of 0.2%. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and is well positioned for further strength if OPEC+ countries agree this week on additional production cuts.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down by 0.39%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) decreased by 0.37% on Monday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.03%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.37%.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested that an interest rate cut is unlikely in the foreseeable future and warned that the second half of the fight against inflation will be hard work. Officials, including chief economist Huw Pill, have emphasized the risk of continued domestic price pressures, as seen in indicators such as wage growth and service sector inflation. As recently as early last week, markets were leaning towards a rate cut next June as the economic outlook deteriorated. Now, they are not considering a rate cut from the current 5.25% until August 2024.

Crude oil prices settled at mixed levels on Monday. Disagreements among OPEC+ representatives over oil production levels have caused the group to postpone this Thursday’s meeting and are weighing on oil prices. Saudi Arabia, which has unilaterally cut oil production by 1.0 million bpd since July, is now asking other OPEC+ members to lower oil production levels, which has prompted a backlash from some African oil producers, including Angola and Nigeria. OPEC+ delegates have said they are moving toward a compromise but have yet to reach an agreement.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.53% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 1.57%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.20% on Monday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.76%.

Falling retail sales in Australia have raised hopes of weaker inflation, which may prompt the Reserve Bank to take a less hawkish stance. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said Australian inflation is largely replicating overseas trends and that the bank needs to be more cautious in raising rates to reduce price pressures.

Hong Kong’s exports rose last month for the first time in more than a year on improved trade with mainland China, lending some optimism to the financial hub’s economic outlook. Overseas shipments rose by 1.4% year-on-year to HK $379.9 billion ($48.8 billion) in October. This marked the first month of export growth since April 2022. Imports rose by 2.6% year-on-year to HK $405.6 billion. This was the first increase since June 2022. The trade deficit amounted to HK $25.8 billion. Hong Kong recently downgraded its economic growth forecast for this year, indicating that the financial center still faces tough times amid a faltering post-pandemic recovery. Gross domestic product is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2023, down from the previous forecast that saw the economy growing between 4% and 5%.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (US500) 4,550.42 −8.92 (−0.20%)

Dow Jones (US30) 35,333.40 −56.75 (−0.16%)

DAX (DE40) 15,966.37 −63.12 (−0.39%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,460.70 −27.50 (−0.37%)

USD index 103.19 −0.21 (−0.20%)

Important events for today:

– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan BoJ Core CPI (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 17:45 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 20:05 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

28 Nov

USDInd slips below weekly support

By ForexTime

USD Index busy with a D1 downtrend

Broken weekly support may turn to resistance level

H4 bearish scenario triggered if 103.060 price level breached

Three potential targets identified on the H4 chart.

Bearish scenario invalidated if prices push back above 103.510

Dollar bears could be enticed to drag prices lower after the USD Index slipped below a weekly support level.

This development may signal the resumption of the downtrend, especially if the new weekly resistance level strengthens the bearish resolve – causing the negative momentum to build as a result.

The H4 chart confirms the overall bearish dominance with the Momentum Oscillator below the 100 baseline in negative terrain and the price being lower than the 50 Exponential Moving Average.

If the weekly resistance level holds and the price reaches the 103.060 level, a short opportunity will be triggered.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to a trigger level just below the last lower bottom at 103.060 and dragging it to just above the last lower top, three possible targets can be established:

The first potential target is at 102.611 (Target 1). This target will help with risk management.

The second price target is likely at 102.027 (Target 2).

The third and last price target is possible at 101.487 (Target 3), just before the next weekly support level.

If the price at 103.510 is broken, this scenario is no longer appropriate.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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