Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 162

16 Jan

NatGas bullish opportunity on horizon

By ForexTime

NatGas busy with correction wave in uptrend

Weekly support may trigger long opportunity

Prices trading above 100 EMA on H4 chart

3 potential bullish targets identified

Bullish scenario invalidated below 2.729

US natural gas prices have been at the receiving end of sustained bullish momentum for some time now.

The commodity jumped last Friday as cold weather across the United States boosted the demand outlook for heating.

After a final push last week, a fresh resistance level was reached but not breached. At the resistance level a correction wave started, and this might have enough momentum to reach a previous weekly support level. If the level is reached and holds, a long opportunity might ensue.

A look at the 4-hour time frame will produce more understanding.

The 4-hour chart is busy with a down trend as the daily trend correction wave plays out. The 4-hour 100 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as well as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are still in bullish mode and the 100 EMA confirms the possible support level around 2.874 as indicated by the weekly support level.

If the price reaches the 2.874 level then a long opportunity becomes possible.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level at 2.987 and dragging it to the below daily support level at 2.729, three possible targets can be established:

The first target is possible at 3.146 (Target 1).
The second price target is likely at 3.374 (Target 2).
The third and last price target is feasible at 3.554 (Target 4) if buyers are able to press through the next weekly resistance level at 3.460.

If the price at 2.729 is broken, this scenario is no longer applicable.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Energy Financial News

15 Jan

Brent Crude Oil Experiences Upward Trend

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent prices have been rising for three consecutive days as of this Monday. The price of a Brent barrel has climbed to 79.00 USD, and there are underlying reasons for this surge.

The focal point of attention is the unfolding events in the Red Sea, where the situation is challenging. This holds significant importance for the crude oil market as numerous tankers with energy carriers pass through these waters. Any disruptions in transportation accessibility could potentially impact the crude oil supply. The market incorporates this concern into its quotes. While some tankers have already altered their routes, others continue passing through the Red Sea.

The Libyan factor also supports oil bulls. Protests in the country might lead to a shutdown of two additional oil and gas organisations. Earlier, operations were halted at the Sharara field, causing the market to lose approximately 300 thousand barrels of crude oil daily.

Meanwhile, various drivers exert pressure on the market. Increasing crude oil production among non-OPEC+ members, including the US, is one such factor. Additionally, there is uncertainty in Chinese crude oil demand.

Brent technical analysis

On the H4 Brent chart, a growth wave structure is emerging towards 82.15. Once this level is reached, a correction link to 79.30 is expected, followed by a rise to 83.43. This is a local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD: its signal line is above zero, strictly pointing upwards.

On the H1 Brent chart, a consolidation range is developing around 79.35. A growth structure to 81.45 is expected, followed by a correction to 79.40 and a rise to 82.15. This is a local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 50, aiming strictly upwards to 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News

15 Jan

Your Bourse surpassed the monthly trading volume of $1 Trillion in December 2023.

In December 2023, Your Bourse, a trade execution technology provider, reported a new record in monthly trading volume – $1.08 trillion. A strong company performance led to a significant increase in both clients and their trading volume via the Your Bourse platform.

Your Bourse experienced a year of dynamic expansion and notable accomplishments in 2023. By providing its exceptional Matching Engine, Bridge Solutions, liquidity aggregation, and FIX server for liquidity distribution, the company showed unprecedented trading volume results.

The average daily trading volume (ADV) was at the $35 billion level in the last month of the year.

The month’s peak daily trading volume was recorded on December 29th, reaching a turnover of $165 billion.

TOP-5 trading instruments with the highest share were XAUUSD, EURUSD, US30, NAS100, and GBPUSD.

Out of the total, trading in the Gold instrument XAUUSD represented 23 percent, amounting to $250 billion of the total trading volume. This marked the peak of activity for this instrument in 2023.

In December, EURUSD turnover was in second place and accounted for 15% ($163 billion) of the total volume.

The US30 index, or the DJ30 derivative contract, came in third with a 6% share ($65 billion) of the monthly volume.

Matching Engine, the flagship Your Bourse’s solution, delivers order execution with ultra-low latency: just two microseconds order processing time and handling an impressive 500,000 orders per second on a single CPU). The Matching Engine is asset class agnostic, ensuring flexibility and broad applicability for various trading instruments providing trading institutions with unprecedented reliability and security. In December, there was a 7% increase in the number of Matching Engine installations.

The access to a broad spectrum of liquidity providers via Your Bourse platform makes brokers’ performance more sustainable and profitable.

There are more than 100 liquidity providers connected to the Your Bourse infrastructure.

About Your Bourse

Your Bourse offers software solutions for the retail and institutional MT4/MT5 brokers. Including: MT5 gateway & MT4 bridge, multi-asset liquidity aggregation, risk management, client profiling, real-time and historical reporting, MT4/MT5 hosting in all Equinix data centers with 99.999% SLA, plugins for MT4 & MT5 and FIX API connections for the B2B clients.

Finance Press Release Financial News Forex and Currency News

13 Jan

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets go lower led by Copper & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines for the metals was Copper (-21,784 contracts) with Gold (-19,035 contracts), Silver (-6,208 contracts), Platinum (-5,498 contracts), Steel (-2,444 contracts) and Palladium (-1,317 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Major Metals – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Platinum

On the downside, Palladium (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Copper (20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (70.0 percent)
Silver (58.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (67.4 percent)
Copper (20.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (39.9 percent)
Platinum (69.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (82.6 percent)
Palladium (13.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (22.9 percent)
Steel (90.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (100.0 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (31 percent) and Palladium (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Silver (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-8 percent) and Steel (-5 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-5.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (16.2 percent)
Silver (-11.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (7.6 percent)
Copper (-8.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (10.9 percent)
Platinum (31.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.6 percent)
Palladium (4.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.6 percent)
Steel (-4.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 188,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 207,649 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	21.7	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	66.2	4.4
– Net Position:	188,614	-217,701	29,087
– Gross Longs:	271,665	106,489	50,574
– Gross Shorts:	83,051	324,190	21,487
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	36.5	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	0.4	31.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 26,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	29.2	22.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	62.3	9.1
– Net Position:	26,362	-43,755	17,393
– Gross Longs:	52,886	38,495	29,378
– Gross Shorts:	26,524	82,250	11,985
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.2	38.5	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	5.2	21.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	37.6	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	33.2	5.9
– Net Position:	-13,167	9,029	4,138
– Gross Longs:	64,262	77,708	16,397
– Gross Shorts:	77,429	68,679	12,259
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.3	79.1	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	3.4	32.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.6	20.3	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	59.8	4.2
– Net Position:	23,541	-28,380	4,839
– Gross Longs:	47,209	14,631	7,883
– Gross Shorts:	23,668	43,011	3,044
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	34.8	32.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.2	-29.2	8.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	63.3	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.9	11.3	9.4
– Net Position:	-9,472	9,404	68
– Gross Longs:	3,551	11,457	1,766
– Gross Shorts:	13,023	2,053	1,698
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.9	86.6	45.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-6.2	14.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 967 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	75.3	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	69.1	0.9
– Net Position:	-1,477	1,241	236
– Gross Longs:	4,078	15,118	426
– Gross Shorts:	5,555	13,877	190
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.7	9.4	58.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.8	-3.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

13 Jan

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (179,262 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (119,278 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (75,655 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (45,643 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (4,382 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the US Treasury Bonds (-15,127 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-10,331 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-4,866 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

On the downside, the 10-Year Bonds (6 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (15 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (39.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (40.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (15.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (19.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (1.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (18.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (5.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (29.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (34.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (57.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (62.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (98.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (88.7 percent)

5-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (15 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (14 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-19 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (14.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (3.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (3.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (14.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (-9.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-18.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-14.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (6.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (8.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (8.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (0.3 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 685,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 179,262 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 506,101 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	50.9	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	57.8	0.4
– Net Position:	685,363	-674,767	-10,596
– Gross Longs:	1,854,270	5,002,614	31,668
– Gross Shorts:	1,168,907	5,677,381	42,264
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.3	2.1	82.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-7.9	-4.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -136,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	69.6	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	60.8	2.8
– Net Position:	-136,193	142,645	-6,452
– Gross Longs:	165,155	1,131,777	38,635
– Gross Shorts:	301,348	989,132	45,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	60.0	78.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-16.5	20.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,238,657 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,382 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,243,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	80.4	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	51.0	3.4
– Net Position:	-1,238,657	1,109,623	129,034
– Gross Longs:	421,993	3,038,980	256,226
– Gross Shorts:	1,660,650	1,929,357	127,192
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.2	83.7	93.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-2.3	-7.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,170,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 119,278 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,289,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	83.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	66.1	4.8
– Net Position:	-1,170,182	1,008,597	161,585
– Gross Longs:	443,301	4,841,923	438,210
– Gross Shorts:	1,613,483	3,833,326	276,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	76.1	97.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.6	-17.8	3.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -787,020 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 45,643 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -832,663 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	79.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	63.8	7.6
– Net Position:	-787,020	726,488	60,532
– Gross Longs:	469,964	3,695,263	414,385
– Gross Shorts:	1,256,984	2,968,775	353,853
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.1	92.5	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	12.5	1.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -173,799 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 75,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -249,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	73.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	62.0	13.0
– Net Position:	-173,799	244,692	-70,893
– Gross Longs:	324,787	1,545,552	202,935
– Gross Shorts:	498,586	1,300,860	273,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.9	80.2	71.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-16.4	-1.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -155,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -140,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	73.6	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	67.0	9.5
– Net Position:	-155,752	96,151	59,601
– Gross Longs:	178,714	1,068,735	197,999
– Gross Shorts:	334,466	972,584	138,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.2	46.9	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	16.6	6.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -313,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,331 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -302,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	80.6	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	63.3	8.6
– Net Position:	-313,195	290,221	22,974
– Gross Longs:	154,339	1,352,257	167,038
– Gross Shorts:	467,534	1,062,036	144,064
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.9	38.3	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.5	-14.7	12.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

13 Jan

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by S&P500 & Russell

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini with a strong weekly gain by 97,039 contracts. Coming in next was the Russell-Mini (21,933 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (7,603 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (4,537 contracts), the VIX (823 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (762 contracts) also recording positive weekly gains.

The only market with a drop in speculator bets was the Nasdaq-Mini with a decline by -2,291 contracts on the week.

Stock Markets – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (100 percent) and the Russell-Mini (100 percent) lead the stock markets this week at their top levels of the past three years. The Nasdaq-Mini (96 percent) and VIX (80 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (36 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the S&P500-Mini (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (79.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (79.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (47.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (32.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (100.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (92.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (95.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (99.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (100.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (84.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (47.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (42.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (36.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (28.4 percent)

DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (80 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (54 percent), the Nasdaq-Mini (45 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (34 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei USD (-2 percent) coming in as the next market with a lower trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (2.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (1.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-7.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-20.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (79.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (88.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (45.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (52.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (54.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (40.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (-2.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-8.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (34.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (22.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 823 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,992 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	48.3	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	33.9	9.3
– Net Position:	-44,169	51,245	-7,076
– Gross Longs:	69,775	171,526	25,924
– Gross Shorts:	113,944	120,281	33,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	21.2	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	1.7	-30.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -117,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 97,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -214,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	72.5	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	71.8	8.0
– Net Position:	-117,049	15,495	101,554
– Gross Longs:	272,247	1,602,234	278,896
– Gross Shorts:	389,296	1,586,739	177,342
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.3	42.0	77.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	-0.9	23.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,542 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	47.8	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	72.4	12.5
– Net Position:	24,079	-25,433	1,354
– Gross Longs:	36,987	49,419	14,256
– Gross Shorts:	12,908	74,852	12,902
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	79.6	-80.7	30.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 36,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	54.2	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	69.6	13.0
– Net Position:	36,776	-42,601	5,825
– Gross Longs:	83,021	150,591	42,040
– Gross Shorts:	46,245	193,192	36,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.6	5.2	93.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.4	-35.0	6.0

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 21,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	74.3	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	80.7	3.8
– Net Position:	21,012	-31,976	10,964
– Gross Longs:	94,710	370,642	30,111
– Gross Shorts:	73,698	402,618	19,147
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.3	-53.9	25.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	64.4	23.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	53.3	17.9
– Net Position:	-2,658	1,724	934
– Gross Longs:	1,811	9,991	3,702
– Gross Shorts:	4,469	8,267	2,768
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.7	46.4	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	1.3	1.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -29,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,729 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	89.0	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	83.6	2.2
– Net Position:	-29,126	22,977	6,149
– Gross Longs:	30,146	379,373	15,395
– Gross Shorts:	59,272	356,396	9,246
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.3	60.6	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.1	-35.1	6.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

13 Jan

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Soybean Meal & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Soybean Meal & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (3,950 contracts) with Soybean Oil (3,279 contracts), Coffee (2,160 contracts), Cotton (261 contracts) and Wheat (227 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-29,428 contracts), Corn (-26,305 contracts), Soybeans (-16,121 contracts) Sugar (-5,867 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,286 contracts) and Cocoa (-73 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Coffee

On the downside there are a number of markets at extreme lows. Soybean Meal (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent), Soybean Oil (3 percent), Live Cattle (4 percent), Lean Hogs (10 percent), Sugar (16 percent) and Cotton (13 percent) all come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.6 percent)
Sugar (15.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (17.7 percent)
Coffee (74.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (72.0 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (16.4 percent)
Live Cattle (4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (12.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (6.3 percent)
Cotton (13.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.0 percent)
Cocoa (80.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (80.3 percent)
Wheat (44.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (44.2 percent)

Wheat & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (44 percent) and Coffee (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (1 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-74 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-49 percent), Soybeans (-31 percent) and Soybean Oil (-27 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-2.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-3.2 percent)
Sugar (-49.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-53.3 percent)
Coffee (15.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (13.4 percent)
Soybeans (-30.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-33.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-26.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-33.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-74.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-62.2 percent)
Live Cattle (-17.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-8.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-9.5 percent)
Cotton (-0.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.2 percent)
Cocoa (-2.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-4.0 percent)
Wheat (44.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -173,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -26,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -146,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	46.4	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	32.7	11.9
– Net Position:	-173,033	194,021	-20,988
– Gross Longs:	263,111	654,962	146,167
– Gross Shorts:	436,144	460,941	167,155
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	2.7	-4.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 68,958 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	57.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	67.1	7.5
– Net Position:	68,958	-81,593	12,635
– Gross Longs:	173,488	463,071	73,874
– Gross Shorts:	104,530	544,664	61,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	84.4	18.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-49.3	51.4	-42.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 45,588 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,428 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	36.4	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	58.1	3.6
– Net Position:	45,588	-47,708	2,120
– Gross Longs:	73,163	80,276	10,075
– Gross Shorts:	27,575	127,984	7,955
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	28.4	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-15.2	3.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,121 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,928 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	57.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	49.3	10.0
– Net Position:	-38,049	53,620	-15,571
– Gross Longs:	99,237	378,409	50,048
– Gross Shorts:	137,286	324,789	65,619
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.7	27.8	11.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -29,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,487 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	50.5	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	45.1	5.5
– Net Position:	-29,208	27,654	1,554
– Gross Longs:	95,344	258,646	29,768
– Gross Shorts:	124,552	230,992	28,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	96.7	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.5	25.6	-13.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	48.2	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	50.7	7.2
– Net Position:	-2,490	-10,834	13,324
– Gross Longs:	90,725	210,311	44,758
– Gross Shorts:	93,215	221,145	31,434
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.1	100.0	15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-74.1	75.1	-27.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	40.7	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	49.3	12.3
– Net Position:	23,367	-23,263	-104
– Gross Longs:	70,653	109,803	33,163
– Gross Shorts:	47,286	133,066	33,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	94.3	89.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	15.9	18.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,950 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	38.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	22.5	11.4
– Net Position:	-24,496	29,637	-5,141
– Gross Longs:	55,979	72,177	16,359
– Gross Shorts:	80,475	42,540	21,500
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.5	95.7	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	2.2	-14.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,950 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,689 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	45.8	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	48.5	6.4
– Net Position:	5,950	-5,513	-437
– Gross Longs:	57,617	92,979	12,617
– Gross Shorts:	51,667	98,492	13,054
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.2	86.6	13.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.9	9.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 68,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -73 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,954 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.6	26.6	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	47.8	5.4
– Net Position:	68,881	-67,423	-1,458
– Gross Longs:	119,536	84,761	15,778
– Gross Shorts:	50,655	152,184	17,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.2	24.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	6.4	-30.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -33,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	37.1	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	25.7	10.2
– Net Position:	-33,390	42,432	-9,042
– Gross Longs:	107,680	138,560	29,116
– Gross Shorts:	141,070	96,128	38,158
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	58.3	26.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.3	-41.7	-33.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

12 Jan

When can we stop worrying about rising prices? The latest inflation report offers no easy answers

By D. Brian Blank, Mississippi State University and Brandy Hadley, Appalachian State University

Tired of thinking about inflation’s impact on your wallet? You’re not alone. But like it or not, higher prices continue to be an economic and – with the presidential race – a political issue as we enter the early months of 2024.

The Conversation asked two financial economists, D. Brian Blank at Mississippi State University and Appalachian State University’s Brandy Hadley, what they make of the inflation report that dropped on Jan. 11, 2024, and whether there might be a time before too long when we can all stop worrying about increasing costs.

Was inflation higher or lower in December 2023?

Both, unfortunately.

Economists have many ways of measuring how prices change over time. Two key measures are overall, or “headline,” inflation, which tracks the prices for a basket of goods and services, and “core” inflation, which tracks many of the same items but excludes those with unusually jumpy prices, such as gasoline.

In the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Jan. 11 report, which measured how much prices changed in December 2023, these indicators moved in different directions. In other words, the higher one, core CPI – short for consumer price index – declined from an annual rate of 4% in November to 3.9% in December. And the lower one, headline inflation, rose from 3.1% to 3.4%.

While previously falling prices for clothing, alcohol, new vehicles and gas reversed course in December, core inflation finally fell below 4.0%.

But what does all this inflation confusion mean?

What everyone wants to know is when will inflation go back to normal, or at least closer to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. And while no one knows the answer, there are reasons to believe it may happen soon.

At this point, people should be less worried about inflation than they were in December 2022, when the headline figure was 6.4%. While inflation is still higher than we have gotten used to over the past decade, it’s much lower than it has been over the past couple of years.

Hopefully, that indicates the Federal Reserve is approaching the end of its battle with inflation and may be able to finally lower interest rates later this year. Over the past two years, the central bank has raised rates 11 times to tame consumer demand and prices.

But concerns remain about inflation persisting. One risk factor is the impact that conflicts in Ukraine and now the Middle East will have on trade routes, such as those in the Red Sea. Another area of concern may be home prices, which builder KB Homes reports may be rising more this year.

Those worries could lead the Fed to wait just a bit longer to make any big decisions on whether to ease off the brakes any time soon.

So why did headline inflation tick higher?

Overall inflation came in higher than forecasts largely due to the rising price of housing.

Rent accounts for a huge part of inflation, since it’s one of many people’s largest expenses. However, CPI is calculated using rental data over the past year, which means the data lags behind real-time rent changes. What’s more, real estate marketplace Zillow’s estimates of rent are falling – a trend that’s expected to continue as more apartments are built this year.

What matters to people: Prices or inflation?

Even though inflation is slowing, costs are 18% higher than four years ago and aren’t falling, which makes many people less optimistic about the economy than before the pandemic.

Some Wall Street forecasters and economists struggle to understand people’s concerns when labor markets are strong and the stock market is rising. Still, consumer prices are near all-time highs, which is neither exciting for most people nor surprising to economists given that prices typically rise over time.

Despite high expenses, people still have a degree of disposable income. The cost to eat out continues to increase three times as fast as the cost to eat at home, which is both one of the largest differences on record and evidence that people still have income to spend eating out.

That shows the mismatch between consumer behavior and “vibes”: Americans have the money to travel and go to restaurants, but still complain about airfare and menu prices.

When can we stop talking about inflation?

We may have to wait until people stop feeling the inflation impacts before they stop wanting to complain about it – and focus on it – each month. Could the Fed stop the inflation preoccupation by lowering rates? Or does the Fed need to hold rates higher for longer? Only time will tell.

About the Author:

D. Brian Blank, Associate Professor of Finance, Mississippi State University and Brandy Hadley, Associate Professor of Finance and the David A. Thompson Distinguished Scholar of Applied Investments, Appalachian State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

12 Jan

The United States and Britain are striking back at the Houthis. Oil rises amid escalating conflict in the Middle East

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.04%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.07% on Thursday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed around its opening price.

The US Consumer Price Index for December rose to 3.4% y/y from 3.1% y/y in November, beating expectations of 3.2% y/y. The core CPI for December declined to 3.9% y/y from 4.0% y/y in November, the lowest reading in 2 years, but above expectations of 3.8% y/y. US weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 1,000 to a 2.5-month low of 202,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a rise to 210,000. Markets are discounting the odds of a 25 bps rate cut to 3% at the next FOMC meeting on January 30-31 and 70% for the same 25 bps rate cut at the March 19-20 meeting.

Today is the start of the Q4 2023 reporting season in the US. The banking sector will start reporting traditionally.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly declining yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.86%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.52% on Thursday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was down by 0.62%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.98%.

ECB Governing Council representative Vujcic said yesterday that December Eurozone inflation was within expectations, and he favors a quarter-point cut in interest rates.

The UK economy grew slightly stronger than expected in November. UK Gross Domestic Product rose by 0.3% in November after falling 0.3% a month earlier. However, weakness in previous months leaves a high risk of sliding into recession, which could be a blow for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ahead of elections expected in 2024.

Heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East sent crude oil (WTI) prices up more than 3% after Iran seized an oil tanker off the coast of Oman. The increase in hostile incidents in the Red Sea against commercial shipping is a favorable factor for oil prices. Today, the United States and Britain launched air and sea strikes against Houthi military installations in Yemen in response to the movement’s attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

Natural gas (XNG) prices rose moderately on Thursday after weekly natural gas inventories fell more than expected, according to the EIA. EIA said natural gas inventories fell by 140 billion cubic feet last week, more than the 121 billion cubic feet expected

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.77% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.27%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day up by 1.27%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the trading day positive by 0.80%. Japan’s Nikkei index extended its impressive gains this year, jumping 1.5% to another 34-year high on Friday.

China’s inflation data showed that the country’s economic recovery remained weak in December, with the consumer price index falling by 0.3% y/y. However, separate trade data showed exports grew faster than expected last month, and imports returned to growth.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,780.24 −3.21 (−0.07%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,711.02 +15.29 (+0.04%)

DAX (DE40) 16,547.03 −142.78 (−0.86%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,576.59 −75.17 (−0.98%)

USD Index 102.25 −0.04 (−0.04%)

News feed for 2024.01.12:

– China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2);
– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

11 Jan

The Nikkei 225 has hit a 34-year high. Rising inflation in the US may push back the US Fed’s plans to cut rates in the spring

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.45%, while the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.57% on Wednesday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.75%.

Today, the US will release its monthly consumer price index (CPI) report. The overall CPI is expected to rise from 3.1% to 3.2% year-over-year. At the same time, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, will decline from 4% y/y to 3.8% y/y. Lower inflation will increase the likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates as early as March. In such a scenario, the US dollar will be under pressure, which will give confidence to risky assets (EUR, GBP) as well as indices.

On the contrary, rising inflation will reduce the probability of a rate cut this spring and reduce the number of basis points of rate cuts throughout the year. In such a scenario, the US dollar would gain support, while risk assets, gold, and stock indices would come under pressure. If the data turns out to be mixed (overall inflation rises and core inflation falls), it will only lead to a spike in volatility and will not bring more specificity to the US Fed’s plans. But given that the probability of a rate cut in March fell from 99% to 70% in one week and the fact that the latest US jobs report showed a resilient labor market, a mixed inflation report would be more likely to benefit the US dollar.

The Canadian dollar has been falling steadily against the US dollar over the past few weeks on the back of hawkish statements from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, as well as a significant drop in global crude oil prices. With oil now finding some support and OPEC+ potentially announcing an extension of voluntary production cuts into next year, the Canadian dollar could strengthen against the US dollar in the short term. However, upcoming US CPI data will be crucial for Fed guidance and could prompt Fed officials to be more hawkish if inflation exceeds expectations.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) added 0.01%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.01% on Wednesday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.07%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.42%.

ECB Executive Board spokesman Schnabel said yesterday that it is too early to discuss rate cuts, and the ECB will keep key rates at restrictive levels until it is confident that inflation will steadily return to the 2% target. For this, additional data confirming the disinflationary process is needed. For his part, ECB Vice President Gindos said that the eurozone may have been in a recession late last year, and incoming data suggest that the future remains uncertain and the outlook is tilted to the downside. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 3% at the next meeting on January 25 and 37% at the March 7 meeting.

Crude oil prices initially jumped on Wednesday after Houthi rebels carried out one of the largest missile and drone attacks on commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea, potentially disrupting global crude supplies. But crude prices fell in the afternoon after the EIA’s weekly crude stockpile data unexpectedly rose, and gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected, pointing to weak energy demand.

Asian markets traded mostly lower yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.01% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.30%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.57%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the trading day negative by 0.69%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) continues to rally after hitting a 34-year-high yesterday. The index rallied on broad-based gains, although technology and auto stocks were the most active. The recent rally in Japanese stocks has been driven mainly by expectations that the Bank of Japan will maintain its ultra-low policy in the near term, especially amid efforts to stimulate the economy following the devastating earthquake in central Japan. Thanks to the Bank of Japan’s soft policy, the Nikkei has become one of the best-performing global equity indices in 2023, jumping 30% year-on-year.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,783.45 +26.95 (+0.57%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,695.73 +170.57 (+0.45%)

DAX (DE40) 16,689.81 +1.45 (+0.01%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,651.76 −32.20 (−0.42%)

USD Index 102.39 −0.18 (−0.18%)

News feed for 2024.01.11:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Financial News – Page 162

US natural gas prices have been at the receiving end of sustained bullish momentum for some time now.

A look at the 4-hour time frame will produce more understanding.

The first target is possible at 3.146 (Target 1).

The second price target is likely at 3.374 (Target 2).

The third and last price target is feasible at 3.554 (Target 4) if buyers are able to press through the next weekly resistance level at 3.460.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Copper & Gold

Major Metals – Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Steel & Platinum

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

Bonds – Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

5-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

Stock Markets – Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Soybean Meal & Corn

Soft Commodities – Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Coffee

Wheat & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

LIVE CATTLE Futures: